Virginia vs. Georgia Tech
Point-Spread: G-Tech -3.5
O/U Total: 45.5
Implied Score: G-Tech 24.5 – UVA 21
Weather: 58 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Georgia Tech:
Top Play(s) – RB Hassan Hall ($5,200) Funny what occurs when coaching changes happen. You get a sense of how certain players were viewed. Hall has played in all six games but has taken over the starting job full-time since Geoff Collins was fired with 37 carries combined against both Duke and Pittsburgh – more than he had in the first four weeks. Total number of rushing attempts for running backs not named Hassan Hall in those two games? Five. Hall is the guy in the Tech backfield right now.
Fade – WR E.J. Jenkins ($5,000) The former South Carolina transfer is second on the team in targets (23) and did play 54 of 76 offensive snaps in Week 6 against Duke. But it looks as though Leo Blackburn and Jenkins play the same spot on offense at the RWR designation, and we hit on why we like Blackburn moving forward here below. Only reason Jenkins is the highest-priced Tech receiver is his team-leading two receiving touchdowns.
Bargain Bin – WR Leo Blackburn ($3,100) The 6-foot-5 redshirt freshman return from injury in Week 6 against Duke and made an immediate impact with 3-49-1 on five targets. Per the Georgia Tech beat writer, Blackburn “should be the go-to guy the remainder of the season.” Very interesting statement.
Pivot Play – WR Nate McCollum ($4,900) If Hall weren’t the top play, it would be McCollum who is coming off a seasons-best 101 yards and a touchdown, converting on all eight of his targets. 22% target share isn’t a lot on the surface, but next closest receiver for Tech sits at just 13% so McCollum is pretty clearly the WR1.
Best of the Rest – QB Jeff Sims ($6,200) Sims is considered day-to-day but would suspect he plays on Thursday as there really hasn’t been indication otherwise this week. The junior QB is coming off his best performance of the year against Duke with 227 passing yards and two scores, while also rushing for 90+ yards on the ground. That’s now consecutive games since Collins was fired that Sims accounted for double-digit carries as a runner. As long as we get a clear bill of health, Sims is likely to be in my lineups, facing a UVA defense that just gave up 30 fantasy points to the Louisville backup quarterback.
Injury Notes – WR Malachi Carter ($4,400) Carter is also said to be day-to-day, but listed on the team’s game week depth chart. His status is not nearly as important as Sims. Carter might now be the 4th or 5th option in the passing game.
Virginia:
Top Play(s) – WR Keytaon Thompson ($6,000) Thompson has been, quite literally, the only good thing about the Virginia offense this season. Double-digit targets in each of the last four games. Four or more catches in all six games.
Fade – RB Perris Jones ($6,100) I do not care that Georgia Tech is 13th in the ACC in rush defense and 114th in rush play success rate. Jones’ opportunities have been decreasing with every passing week, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the staff get an extended look at freshman Xavier Brown ($3,400) coming out of the bye week.
Bargain Bin – Sackett Wood Jr. ($3,000) All five of Wood’s targets have come in the last two games. Georgia Tech is allowing 7.0 FPPG to opposing TE1s on the season.
Pivot Play – QB Brennan Armstrong ($7,000) UVA has scored just 17 points in each of the last two games, yet Armstrong has averaged 20 FPPG in both contests. Far from what we expected of Armstrong, but is that good enough for this two-gamer? Georgia Tech is giving up just over 20 FPPG to opposing QB1s on the year, and Armstrong is still averaging double-digit rushing attempts per game. Maybe the team figured a few things out during the bye that will lead to improvement? Grasping at straws here…
Best of the Rest – WR Dontayvian Wicks ($5,600) Hey, maybe the Louisville game was a jumpstart to a rebound in the second half of the year after finding the end-zone for the FIRST TIME ALL SEASON. Even if you thought there was significant regression incoming for the UVA offense, you wouldn’t have predicted Wicks’ first TD coming in Week 6. Wicks is still tied for the team lead in target, averaging 10 a game, though his conversion rate (41.7%) and drops (8) are still dreadful. The biggest detriment to both Wicks and Lavel Davis ($5,100) this week is the Georgia Tech secondary which has been surprisingly good. Tech is 11th in suppressing explosiveness in the passing game and have allowed the second-fewest FPPG to opposing WR1s in the entire country. Wicks and Davis make their bread and butter down the field where Georgia Tech’s strength is.
Injury Notes – WR Billy Kemp ($3,500) The senior slot receiver is expected back this week, though was still in a green non-contact jersey as of Monday. I will not be considering Kemp at all this week, but my instant reaction is how, if at all, does this effect Keytaon Thompson with both players operating in the slot.
Troy vs. South Alabama
Point-Spread: USA -3.5
O/U Total: 47.5
Implied Score: USA 25.5 – Troy 22
Weather: 71 degrees / 29% rain / 13 mph winds
Troy:
Top Play(s) – WR Tez Johnson ($6,700) Three straight games of finding the end-zone for Johnson who has seen a slight uptick since the injury to Jabre Barber. No Troy wide receiver has more than 19% target share on the year, and if we’re being honest, we have watched much Troy football this year. I’d lean towards the most trustworthy of the group then if selecting a Troy WR and Johnson is the known commodity.
Fade – QB Gunnar Watson ($6,700) Its not a matter of “if”, but “when” will HC Jon Sumrall make the QB switch from Watson to Jarret Doege. Sumrall was quoted saying he won’t allow a player to lose a job due to injury, but Watson came out of the game against Texas State after suffering several big hits. Numbers weren’t great overall, and they haven’t been all year either. Doege replaced Watson and moved the offense immediately, completing 4-of-6 passes with a TD. Sumrall said both QBs are available Thursday, so we’ll see who trots out with the starters.
Bargain Bin – RB DK Billingsley ($3,200) Billingsley was showered with praise from Sumrall in the weekly presser, named the team’s offensive player of the week after rushing for 70 yards on 16 carries in the win over Texas State. His reps have increased over the last month, seeing double-digit attempts in the last four games and has been more effective than starter Kimani Vidal ($5,700). This is not a must-play, however, as Troy has been generally poor at running the football this year – dead last in the Sun Belt. South Alabama brings in the third-best run defense in the conference.
Pivot Play – QB Jarret Doege ($5,500) See above on QB discussion. Of the two defensive components for South Alabama, their pass defense is the more vulnerable, ranking 110th in pass play explosiveness and giving up 26 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. Could see low ownership if not named the starter, but we know Sumrall may have a quick hook.
Best of the Rest – WR Deshon Stoudemire ($3,800) This is the play we must uncover pregame. Stoudemire leads the team in targets (44) and receptions (30) but played just 27% of offensive snaps against Texas State. I haven’t found out why to this point, though he is still listed on the game week depth chart. Looks like 160-pound freshman Devonte Ross ($3,000) was the beneficiary of Stoudemire’s low usage, playing a season-high 41 snaps with seven targets. WR Ra’Jae Johnson ($4,200) is tied for the team-lead in touchdowns (3) and averages over 17 YPC.
Injury Notes – WR Jabre Barber ($4,700) Barber did not play last week and is out for the “foreseeable future.”
South Alabama:
Top Play(s) – WRs. Doesn’t matter which one, all three are viable options at cost. Against Louisiana-Monroe last week, the trio of Caullin Lacy, Jalen Wayne and Devin Voisin combined for 30 of the team’s 31 total targets – a number that is indicative of the entire season. Those three account for 65% of the team’s total share.
Fade – Everyone beyond the Top 3. See above. If all healthy, which they are, nobody else matters.
Bargain Bin – RB Omni Wells ($3,800) I get why Marco Lee ($4,900) is priced higher this week after finding the end-zone twice against Louisiana-Monroe. The two essentially split carries the rest of the way following the Webb injury, though Wells was no slouch, averaging five yards a carry on 15 attempts. The former Mississippi State transfer also out-snapped Lee 42-27.
Pivot Play – QB Carter Bradley ($8,300) Who’d a thunk that in a mid-week two-game DFS slate that Carter Bradley would be priced ahead of Brennan Armstrong. Not me *Paul Rudd GIF voice*. Given Sumrall’s background as a defensive assistant, its not surprising that Troy is one of the better defenses in the conference, and have been particularly good against the pass, allowing just 14.1 FPPG to opposing QBs. That is the fifth best mark in all of FBS. Still the most trustworthy QB on the slate with arguably the best WR corps. You can make an argument either way.
Best of the Rest – n/a
Injury Notes – RB La’Damian Webb ($7,400) This is the biggie for the slate. Local radio station and message board post indicated Webb should be available this week. Poster on our Discord did some Instagram diving and saw that Webb was not practicing as of Tuesday. South Alabama does have an active board and one or two beat writers so we should at least find out pregame of his availability.
UAB vs. Western Kentucky
Point-Spread: WKU -2.5
O/U Total: 57.5
Implied Score: WKU 30 – UAB 27.5
Weather: 59 degrees / 0% rain / 9 mph winds
UAB:
Top Play(s) – RB DeWayne McBride ($7,900) Lock of the slate. 100+ yards in every game played this season. From a high-level standpoint, Western Kentucky’s rush defense has been good, ranking No. 1 in the conference. Dig a little deeper and the Hilltoppers haven’t faced a rush offense ranked higher than 73rd nationally all year.
Fade – RB Jermaine Brown Jr. ($6,700) In my game preview for Athlon, I did predict UAB to pull the mini upset on Friday as a 2.5-point underdog. But as the underdog in what realistically should be a close contest, I don’t see the upside in rostering Brown here. Double-digit carries in five of the six games played this season, but in the Week 5 matchup against Rice where UAB lost, Brown had just five attempts. Figuring the odds that UAB is trailing at some point, 10 rushing attempts for Brown is probably the ceiling.
Bargain Bin – WR Tejhaun Palmer ($3,000) Minimal fantasy production, but Palmer is second on the team in targets (25), receptions (16) and first in routes run by a wide margin.
Pivot Play – WR Trea Shropshire ($4,400) Shropshire is the team’s top big-play threat on the outside, now averaging over 25 yards per catch over a three-year span. 25 of his 28 targets this season have come in the last three games alone and is by far the most effective of the UAB receivers at 4.16 yards per route run in 2022 which is a career best.
Best of the Rest – QB Dylan Hopkins ($5,100) Hopkins’ rushing ability keeps him in the conversation for this two-gamer but is clearly the third or fourth-best option behind Reed and Brin at QB. UAB is sixth in the country in rush play percentage, so they don’t throw the ball often, and Hopkins is facing a WKU defense that is allowing just 16.1 FPPG to opposing QBs which is the 10th best mark in the country.
Injury Notes – n/a
Western Kentucky:
Top Play(s) – QB Austin Reed ($7,900) Outside of McBride, Reed will have the highest ownership of the slate. I would not fade him in this two-gamer, but if this were a main slate, I’d definitely pass as the UAB secondary is the strength of the group. 37th in success rate, 34th in pass play explosiveness allowed and giving up just 16.5 FPPG to opposing QBs which is 12th nationally.
Fade – RB Kye Robichaux ($7,000) One of those plays that I bet ends up in the winning lineup, yet most everything points to fading Robichaux. The sophomore split reps with Davion Ervin-Poindexter. WKU rushes the ball just 39% of the time which is 126th in the country. UAB is the second-ranked run defense in C-USA, limiting the last three opponents to just 3.7 YPC. In argument for Robichaux, he’s been incredibly effective when he does touch the ball, averaging 6.6 YPC. And UAB’s rush defense might be slightly overrated, ranking 95th in rush play success rate.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – WR Malachi Corley ($7,600) Probably a situation where the optimizers favor the secondary options at WR for WKU given they actually play more offensive snaps than Corley does, along with the pricing discounts. Facts of the matter, though, are that Corley has been WKU’s best receiver for the last month with three 100-yard performances in the last four games, and double-digit targets each of the last two weeks.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Pick your poison. Daewood Davis ($6,000) had season lows in targets (5) and receptions against Middle Tennessee but still played 77 of 85 offensive snaps. Was averaging 9.5 targets per game in the six weeks leading up to that matchup. DK models continue to love Jaylen Hall ($5,600) for some reason, though 50% of his targets this season have come in the last two games alone so he’s a player that looks to be trending up. WR Michael Mathison > TE Josh Simon if you’re deciding between those two players for a final spot. Don’t see any reason to roster the tight end at his pricing, given he averages just 2.57 targets back game.
Injury Notes – n/a
Tulsa vs. Temple
Point-Spread: Tulsa -13.5
O/U Total: 52.5
Implied Score: Tulsa 33 – Temple 19.5
Weather: 56 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Tulsa:
Top Play(s) – QB Davis Brin ($6,500) Think we get the Davis Brin we saw the first month of the season following the bye week that allowed the senior QB a chance to heal. Temple’s pass defense has actually been above average this season, for Temple standards I suppose, allowing 196.3 YPG and are 52nd in pass play success rate. Wheels came off last week against UCF, giving up the 60-point performance to JRP, and are now giving up 27.1 FPPG to opposing QBs on the season. If the Tulsa offense doesn’t get things going this week, think we might see another head coach on the firing line soon.
Fade – RB Steven Anderson ($6,000) For now, I’m throwing out the Navy game where we didn’t see a single RB carry the ball more than seven times. Despite scoring a touchdown, I believe Anderson is the secondary option now in the backfield behind Deneric Prince. And at $6k, that makes Anderson an easy fade for me. Tulsa has one of the worst offensive lines in the entire country.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – RB Deneric Prince ($5,600) While I hate this running game in 2022, game script dictates considering a Tulsa RB in our lineup. And the best evidence we have here is the 20-attempt game from Prince three weeks ago. If I’m being honest, I’d also be fine with just fading every running back in this game, if possible. Temple is 66th in rush play success rate, 41st in explosiveness allowed on the ground, and are giving up the sixth fewest fantasy points to RB1s in the country. ***I also wonder if the staff thinks it might be time to give one of the freshmen an extended look in this game (Bill Jackson). Coming off the bye with a running game that is already struggling is the perfect opportunity for that. Food for thought.
Best of the Rest – WRs. I personally think its worth it spending up for Keylon Stokes even though he may not pop in any optimizers. Far and away the best and most consistent of the Tulsa receivers that you don’t have to play guessing game as far as production goes. 20 or more fantasy points in all but one game this season. All four of Stokes, JuanCarlos Santana, Isaiah Epps and Malachai Jones are priced accordingly based on their target share, usage rates and offensive snap counts so there is no built-in advantage here rostering one over the other.
Injury Notes – n/a
Temple:
Top Play(s) – Top two WRs. Adonicas Sanders or Jose Barbon. Both fine plays as the duo combines for 48% of the team’s target share and both are reasonably priced. Double-digit targets in each of the last two games for Barbon with 219 combined yards in that stretch. Sanders is just two targets behind Barbon on the year. While still a below average pass offense, Temple is averaging around 35 more yards through the air this season than in 2021.
Fade – RBs. Doesn’t matter which. Fade all of them. Temple is dead last in the AAC and 128th nationally in yards per game on the ground.
Bargain Bin – WR Amad Anderson ($3,300) The UCF game marked the first time since Week 1 that Anderson, a former Purdue transfer, played more than a dozen offensive snaps. 81% of the offensive snaps in fact. Minimal production on four targets but could be a bargain if he gets a similar workload this week.
Pivot Play – QB E.J. Warner ($4,600) We’re listing Warner here, but I wouldn’t even bother. Yes, Tulsa is allowing 25.6 FPPG to opposing QBs this season, giving up 29+ fantasy points to mediocre quarterbacks like Andrew Peasley and Rocky Lombardi. Both of those players are runners, though, whereas Warner has two rushing yards in five games. He’ll be good enough to support the Temple WRs in a positive game script, but I’ll be fading Warner.
Best of the Rest – n/a
Injury Notes – n/a
