Toledo vs. Louisville
- Point-Spread: UL -6.5
- O/U Total: 44.5
- Implied Score: UL 25.5 – Tol 19
- Weather: 61 degrees / 38% rain / 20 mph winds
Toledo:
Top Play(s) – WR Junior Vandeross III ($6,700) Need to see in pregame warmups that Vandeross is confirmed to be playing as he’s a possible portal candidate as a redshirt junior. Vandeross was the team’s alpha this season at WR with 76 receptions for 947 yards and 11 touchdowns, with more than double the number of targets as the next closest Toledo pass-catcher. He’s Toledo’s top play, though we wouldn’t go overboard on exposure if Vandeross does suit up with the Rockets likely starting a third-string quarterback.
Fade – RB Chip Trayanum ($7,500) As of now, seems like most Toledo players are practicing with the team for bowl preparations, but we wouldn’t be shocked in the slightest to see Trayanum sit out the game as he’s been injury-prone at times throughout his college career. Even if Traynum suits up, he would be facing a Louisville defense that gave up just a combined 19 FPPG to opposing backfields during the regular season and ranked 13th in rush D success rate.
Bargain Bin – WR Ryder Treadway ($3,000) Treadway ran the third most routes in the month of November among Toledo receivers behind Vandeross and Trayvon Rudolph and caught touchdowns in Week’s 12 and 13. Very likely that Treadway starts on Tuesday, and could be WR1 if we get surprise opt outs from Vandeross or Rudolph. TE Jacob Petersen ($3,700) plays over 80% of the team’s offensive snaps and faces a Louisville defense that allowed over 11 FPPG to tight ends this season.
Pivot Play – QB Kalieb Osborne ($4,500) Osborne is a running QB at min pricing. The matchup isn’t great – Louisville allowed just 18 FPPG to quarterbacks in the regular season – but Osborne displayed plenty of athleticism when utilized this season with 22 yards on 34 attempts, averaging over six yards per carry.
Best of the Rest – RB Kenji Christian ($4,500) Matchup isn’t the best as we alluded above with Trayanum, but it would be Christian getting the starting nod should we get any opt-out news in the pregame. Christian looked capable at times this season, averaging over five yards a carry, including a 100-yard performance in Week 8 vs. Kent State.
Opt Outs / Injury Notes – QB Tucker Gleason (out). Three starters on DEF are in the portal and won’t play. Entire secondary is on opt-out watch.
Louisville:
Top Play(s) – WR Caullin Lacy ($5,200) If any one of Isaac Brown, Duke Watson or Keyjuan Brown are available (unlikely), they jump to the top of the list as the top play, but tough to see that happening with the rash of injuries the Louisville backfield has dealt with in 2025. With Chris Bell out, the Louisville passing game likely funnels around lacy who finished second on the team in targets, receptions, receiving yards and first in routes run.
Fade – QB Miller Moss ($7,400) Don’t see much of a reason to play any QB in this game. Moss will be without his WR1, and the two other games on the slate are projected to be shootouts.
Bargain Bin – RB Shaun Boykins Jr. ($4,000) and / or RB Braxton Jennings ($4,100) If this duo could run for 100+ each against an SEC defense in Kentucky in the final week of the regular season, they should be capable of doing so against a MAC opponent that is without three defensive starters and a makeshift coaching staff. Boykins would be the preferred choice of the two, as he was the starter against Kentucky and held a 22-19 advantage in rushing attempts in Week 14. Boykins also held an 8-3 advantage in red zone rushing attempts vs. Kentucky as well.
***Jeff Brohm said he was hopeful one of Keyjuan Brown, Isaac Brown or Duke Watson would play, which would throw a wrench into this, but can’t imagine they do based on the injuries Louisville dealt with this season.
Best of the Rest – Outside WRs. WR Dacari Collins ($3,500) and WR Antonio Meeks ($3,000) started against Kentucky in the finale with Chris Bell out of the lineup, with Collins hauling in a touchdown reception. WR Treyshun Hurry ($3,200) was targeted four times in the blowout win against the Wildcats and played 63% of the team’s offensive snaps. One of Toledo’s starting safeties has already opted out, while the remaining starters in the secondary are potential opt-outs.
Opt Outs / Injury Notes – WR Chris Bell (out), All Louisville RBs (questionable / doubtful)
Western Kentucky vs. Southern Mississippi
- Point-Spread: WKU -2.5
- O/U Total: 57.5
- Implied Score: WKU 30 – USM 27.5
- Weather: Dome
Western Kentucky:
Bargain Bin – TE Noah Myers ($4,100) Myers ranks fifth on the team in targets (36) and receptions (30), while tied for second in touchdowns (3) and third in routes run. Southern Miss struggled mightily to defend tight ends this season, allowing nearly 14 FPPG to the position, scoring over 50% higher than their seasonal average when facing the Golden Eagles.
Pivot Play – RB Marvis Parrish ($4,700) This could also be La’Vell Wright too, if we get confirmation he’s a go for Tuesday despite being in the transfer portal currently. The Southern Miss run defense cratered down the stretch with, allowing four of its last six opponents to rush for over 200 yards. Parrish offers more in the passing game of the two backs with 35 receptions on 38 targets, good for fourth on the team.
Best of the Rest – QB Rodney Tisdale Jr. ($7,200) Tisdale struggled down the stretch, failing to record a passing touchdown in his final two performances. That said, that came against LSU and the eventual Conference USA runner up in Jacksonville State. Southern Miss did a great job this season at limiting explosives in the pass game but ranked just 76th in success rate and gave up just over 21 FPPG to quarterbacks this season. He’ll be low owned with most playing the QBs in the Ohio / UNLV matchup. WKU condensed their WR rotation over the course of the year, to where it was mostly WR Matthew Henry ($5,400), WR Moussa Barry ($4,500) and WR KD Hutchinson ($5,700) garnering over 60% of the team’s offensive snaps. Southern Miss allowed three 100-yard receivers in its last four games, so would look to have exposure to at least one WKU wideout per lineup (not a requirement though).
Opt Outs / Injury Notes – RB La’Vell Wright (portal – but portal players typically are allowed to play under Tyson Helton)
Southern Miss:
Top Play(s) – WR Elijah Metcalf ($5,000) Metcalf is probably the best WR option on the slate given pricing and the fact we know he’s going to play on Tuesday, as compared to some of the higher salaried options. Metcalf was on a tear in the month of November with five or more receptions in his last five games, with double-digit targets against both Texas State and in the finale vs. Troy. WKU plays a bend-but-don’t-break style of defense to where they’re more than content allowing the underneath stuff to limit explosives. That sets up well for Metcalf.
Fade – RB Matt Jones ($4,300) Jones fell off at the end of the year with just four rushing attempts in the last two games with Pittman returning to full health. Southern Miss is not effective enough of a run team to warrant considering a backup option.
Bargain Bin – RB Jaylin Carter ($4,100) Carter has two rushing touchdowns in his last four games, but he’s been an effective receiver out of the backfield with 14 of his 17 receptions this season coming in the last three games alone. Risky play, though, considering he’s RB3-4 in the Southern Miss backfield.
Pivot Play – QB Braylon Braxton ($7,600) Similar argument as Tisdale above in that Braxton likely sees suppressed ownership with most playing the QBs in the UNLV – Ohio matchup. Braxton was not 100% healthy towards the end of the season, so a few weeks off should help, and we’ll see if the offense is more beneficial to his skillset now that Blake Anderson has full autonomy with the offensive playcalling now that Charles Huff is off to Memphis. WKU allowed just 20 FPPG this season to opposing QBs. He’s third on my QB pecking order for this slate behind Colandrea and Navarro.
Best of the Rest – RB Jeffrey Pittman ($5,300) Can’t discount Pittman on this slate, but he’s not a priority play in a bad matchup. WKU is 31st in rush D success rate, but with allowing big runs, ranked 128th in explosive plays allowed. That is NOT Pittman’s strength, averaging just 4.3 YPC this season and a 15.4 breakaway run rate on PFF. Similar to WKU, Southern Miss condensed the WR rotation as the season went along, with Metcalf, WR Carl Chester ($5,600) and WR Micah Davis ($4,400) getting the lion’s share of the work. Chester also hit his stride towards the end of the season with over 200 receiving yards and three scores in the final two weeks.
Opt Outs / Injury Notes – n/a
UNLV vs. Ohio
- Point-Spread: UNLV -6.5
- O/U Total: 65.5
- Implied Score: UNLV 36 – Ohio 29.5
- Weather: Dome
UNLV:
Top Play(s) – QB Anthony Colandrea ($8,000) Top QB on the board and will see the highest ownership of any player on the slate. Ohio allowed just 18 FPPG to quarterbacks this season, but benefitted from playing in a conference like the MAC has maybe one or two noteworthy fantasy quarterback max. Colandrea scored 20+ fantasy points in 10 of 12 games this season, and we saw dual threat QBs find success against Ohio this season with WMU’s Broc Lowry rushing for 100+ in his matchup, and Ball State’s Kiael Kelly rushing for 96 yards and a score on 21 attempts against the Bobcats.
Bargain Bin – WR JoJo Earle ($3,100) Earle played a bigger role in the Rebel offense in the final two games with 88 combined receiving yards, which accounted for 40% of his receiving production this season. Earle was also utilized on the ground with 93 yards rushing in the last three weeks, including two scores.
Pivot Play – Colandrea and RB Jai’Den Thomas ($7,200) stacks. Dan Mullen received an early Xmas present with the announcement that both Colandrea and Thomas would be returning to the Rebels in 2026. The Rebels should be able to attack Ohio on the ground where the Bobcats were 95th in explosive run plays allowed. That should benefit Thomas in this matchup with his 58% breakaway rush rate in 2025, which was a better mark than Heisman finalist Jeremiyah Love. Thomas is playable with or without Colandrea.
Best of the Rest – WR Jaden Bradley ($5,900) Bradley was the lone reliable fantasy option at receiver for UNLV this season, ranking first across the board on the team in targets (89), receptions (54), yards (869) and second in touchdowns (4). WR Dae Dae Reynolds ($4,700) and WR Troy Omeire ($4,600) tied for the team lead in touchdowns (5). We limited ourselves to one UNLV receiver per lineup during the regular season but bumping that to two on this particular slate with the uncertainty at WR in the other games. Two max.
Opt Outs / Injury Notes – TE Var’Keyes Gumms (questionable)
Ohio:
Top Play(s) – QB Parker Navarro ($7,800) Tend to lean Navarro over RB Sieh Bangura ($7,000) as the team’s top play, but both are obviously viable options as they captained the No. 1 rush offense in the MAC and combined for 22 of the team’s 30 rushing touchdowns. Navarro is the least likely candidate of the two, in my eyes, to be a surprise opt-out as he’s already petitioned for another season of playing college football.
UNLV allowed over 25 FPPG to quarterbacks this season and are coming off a brutal performance in the MWC championship game where they allowed 289 yards and three touchdowns to a QB in Maddux Madsen that got benched in his bowl game. But like Anthony Colandrea and Jai’Den Thomas, Navarro and Bangura are playable together, facing a UNLV defense that also ranked 105th in rush D success rate and 132nd in explosive run plays given up.
Bargain Bin – WR Clayton Coppock ($4,900) or WR Christian Moss ($4,400)
Pivot Play – RB Duncan Brune ($4,600) Brune took on a bigger workload in the latter portion of the regular season when the Ohio passing game disappeared. Brune had double-digit carries in each of the last two games, averaging over five yards per carry and was the only other Ohio player to rush for a touchdown this season outside of Navarro and Bangura. We would not stack with Bangura in the same lineup, obviously, but would be an adequate replacement IF we somehow got word that Bangura was sitting out.
Best of the Rest – WR Chase Hendricks ($6,500) Hendricks’ 39% target share this season was one of the highest marks in the country for a college receiver, though his numbers dropped significantly when the Ohio passing offense fell off a cliff in November. Dome conditions should benefit the Ohio passing game, relative to the wintery weather in the Midwest during MACtion. WR Rodney Harris ($4,800) is a strong pivot play away from Hendricks. While he finished the year with just 27 receptions on 37 targets, Harris did not leave the field, playing over 90% of the team’s offensive snaps.
Opt Outs / Injury Notes – n/a
Mike’s DK Core Four:
- QB Anthony Colandrea, UNLV
- WR Elijah Metcalf, Southern Mississippi
- RB Jai’Den Thomas, UNLV
- QB Parker Navarro, Ohio
Mike’s FD Core Four:
- QB Anthony Colandrea, UNLV
- WR Elijah Metcalf, Southern Mississippi
- RB Jai’Den Thomas, UNLV
- QB Parker Navarro, Ohio
