Coastal Carolina vs. Louisiana Tech
- Point-Spread: LT -9.5
- O/U Total: 51.5
- Implied Score: LT 30.5 – CC 21
- Weather: 44 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Coastal Carolina:
Fade – QB Tad Hudson ($6,500) There are four QB options on the slate and Hudson is not one of them. Non-runner that has failed to throw for more than 200 yards in a single collegiate game in his career to this point. Louisiana Tech had more interceptions than touchdown passes allowed in 2025. ***We’ll also be on Samari Collier watch in the pregame. It’s unlikely Collier plays, but early indications after his November leg injury were that he “might” be able to return for the bowl game.
Pivot Play – RB Ja’Vin Simpkins ($4,900) We’re not expecting much from the Coastal running game against the No. 1 run defense statistically in Conference USA. That said, the Bulldogs did struggle some down the stretch, allowing 5.6 YPC over the last five games and were just 75th in EPA per run play. Far from a dominant run defense. Simpkins averaged 5.0 yards per attempt for the season.
Best of the Rest – WRs. If there was an image in the dictionary for the term “Wide Receiver by Committee,” Coastal Carolina’s mascot would be right there. No receiver had more than 280 yards receiving this season, with the leading wideout having just 13% of the team’s target share. If going on recency bias, WR Cameron Wright ($3,600) would be the top option after leading the Chants with seven targets and 71% of the snaps played in Week 14…. BUT was also absent from the team depth chart.
If looking strictly at starters from the bowl game depth chart, that would be WR Bryson Graves ($4,300), WR Karmello English ($3,500), WR Malick Meiga ($3,300) and WR Robby Washington ($3,300).
Final note – Drew Hollingshead will call plays for the bowl game, a former Air Raid disciple that coached under Mike Leach at Washington State and Texas Tech. HC Tim Beck was fired earlier in the month, so the offense could change stylistically on Tuesday with Hollingshead having full autonomy calling plays. In two seasons as a play-caller at Western Kentucky in 2023-24, Hollingshead’s offenses threw the ball 56% of the time.
Opt Outs / Injury Notes – QB Samari Collier (questionable)
Louisiana Tech:
Top Play(s) – RB Andrew Burnette ($5,100) or RB Clay Thevenin ($6,200) Louisiana Tech should dominate on the ground in this matchup, facing a Coastal Carolina defense that allowed over six yards a carry over the last month and a half, including 264+ yards on the ground to four of their last five opponents. Thevenin has been the starter most of the season, and remains the listed starter on the depth chart, but it was Burnette who emerged in the final two games with a combined 225 rushing yards and five touchdowns. Burnette held a 6-4 advantage in red zone rushing attempts over Thevenin in that two-game span as well. Both are viable options against an opponent that finished 97th in stuff rate, 95th in rush D success rate and 110th in explosive run plays allowed.
Pivot Play – QB Trey Kukuk ($7,300) Louisiana Tech attempted just 43 combined passes over its last two games and given the defensive deficiencies against the run for Coastal Carolina, we’re not expecting a high number of passes being thrown on Tuesday. That said, Kukuk is dynamic on the ground, leading the Bulldogs with over 300 rushing yards over the last two games with five touchdowns. We mentioned Burnette had a 6-4 red zone carry advantage over Clay Thevenin above. Well, Kukuk had 12 red zone attempts in that same span. Coastal allowed 24 FPPG to quarterbacks this season. Kukuk and one Louisiana Tech RB is a viable stacking option.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Louisiana Tech is 123rd nationally in pass rate and doesn’t have a player with more than 18% of the target share or two receiving touchdowns, so not a necessary requirement to have any Bulldog pass-catchers in a lineup. WR Marlion Jackson ($3,800), WR Devin Gandy ($4,000) and WR Jalen Mickens ($3,300) are the listed starters on the depth chart. Coastal Carolina did allow over 47 combined fantasy points to opposing team’s WRs, so having one of the three in a lineup is possible. TE Eli Finley ($4,700) led the team in targets (46), receptions (37) and second in routes run.
Opt Outs / Injury Notes – QB Blake Baker (out)
Tennessee vs. Illinois
- Point-Spread: Tenn -2.5
- O/U Total: 61.5
- Implied Score: Tenn 32 – Illini 29.5
- Weather: 36 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Tennessee:
Top Play(s) – RB DeSean Bishop ($7,000) Running back has strong options on this 3-game slate, but Bishop has been the best offensive piece for the Vols in the second half of the season, primarily down the stretch with five rushing scores in his last three games. Bishop also saw his workload increase with 20+ attempts vs. both Florida and Vanderbilt, which could continue as Tennessee will be without one of its rotational backs in Peyton Lewis who hit the portal. Illinois is better against the run than the pass, ranked 59th in EPA per rush play and 38th in success rate, but will be without two of its best defenders in DE Gabe Jacas and S Matthew Bailey.
Bargain Bin – WR Radarious Jackson ($3,000) 4-star freshman that will be the Chris Brazzell replacement on the outside. Finished the year with just seven receptions but is a superior athlete at 6-foot-2 with arguably the biggest catch radius on the team according to his teammates.
Pivot Play – TE Ethan Davis ($4,600) Seems like Miles Kitselman could return to the lineup on Tuesday after missing the final two games of the regular season, but the Vols uncovered their TE1 for 2026 in Ethan Davis. The 6-foot-5 sophomore was outstanding in the month of November with 18 of his 21 receptions coming in the last four games, including 157 combined receiving yards vs. Florida and Vanderbilt. TE usage should increase for Tennessee without Chris Brazzell in the lineup.
Best of the Rest – WR Braylon Staley ($6,100) and / or WR Mike Matthews ($5,200) All Tennessee pass-catchers get a boost in value with Chris Brazzell and his 1,006 receiving yards opting out to prepare for the NFL Draft. I would look to have at least one Tennessee wideout in a lineup, facing an Illinois secondary that allowed over 47 FPPG to opposing team’s WRs during the regular season. Boundary WRs gave this secondary the most fits this year, including 153 yards from Denzel Boston, 9-93-1 from Rutgers’ KJ Duff, and even 99 yards and a touchdown to Northwestern’s Hayden Eligon in a snowstorm. That favors Matthews and Radarious Jackson.
QB Joey Aguilar ($8,200) is a solid option given he’s got plenty to work with at WR in this matchup. Illinois is 113th in EPA per pass play, 134th in pass D success rate, and will be without its top pass-rusher. RB Star Thomas ($5,200) is a pivot option away from Bishop, who should also see an increased role with Peyton Lewis not available. Thomas finished the year with seven touchdowns and 26 red-zone carries (DeSean Bishop had 40).
Opt Outs / Injury Notes – RB Peyton Lewis (portal), WR Chris Brazzell (NFL Draft), TE Miles Kitselman (questionable)
Illinois:
Top Play(s) – WR Hank Beatty ($5,700) Beatty’s numbers tapered off in the second half of the year but was the team’s most reliable fantasy option in 2025, ranked first in targets (81), receptions (63), yards (823) and routes run. We want at least one Illinois receiver in a lineup, facing a Tennessee secondary that allowed 43 FPPG to opposing team’s WRs during the regular season, the second highest mark on the slate.
Bargain Bin – WR Hudson Clement ($4,400) Clement did not live up to preseason expectations as Illinois’ projected WR1, but started to come on late, including 41 fantasy points in a two-game span vs. Maryland and Rutgers in November. Clement played over 76% of the team’s snaps over the last six games. WR Collin Dixon ($5,000) was the team’s top deep threat in 2025, leading the Illini in touchdowns (5) with a 16.3 YPC average and 13.6-yard aDOT.
Pivot Play – QB Luke Altmyer ($7,700) Final go-round for Altmyer who was one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the country this season, completing 68% of his passes with 21 touchdowns and just five INTs. He’ll face a Tennessee secondary that struggled much of the year and will be down a couple of rotational pieces due to opt-outs / injury. Tennessee finished 15th in the SEC in yards allowed through the air, 90th in EPA per pass play, but only gave up 21 FPPG to quarterbacks during the regular season. If playing Altmyer, you build lineups around him throwing for 300+ with at least one, if not two, Illinois wideouts.
Best of the Rest – RBs. Full-on running back by committee, and even at this point in the year, I personally still have no idea who the “starter” is for the Illini. RB Ca’lil Valentine (4,800) has led Illinois in rushing attempts over the last five games, so he’d be the preferred choice of the bunch if forced to choose (we’re not). RB Kaden Feagin ($5,400) has the highest likelihood of any Illinois player to have a rushing touchdown with a 43-19 advantage in red zone carries over Valentine. Tennessee is 111th in rush D success rate and gives up 27 FPPG to opposing backfields.
Opt Outs / Injury Notes – n/a
USC vs. TCU
- Point-Spread: USC -6.5
- O/U Total: 55.5
- Implied Score: USC 31 – TCU 24.5
- Weather: Dome
USC:
Top Play(s) – WR Tanook Hines ($5,200) 178 receptions, 2,577 yards and 21 of the 25 receiving touchdowns on USC this season will not play on Tuesday with four of the top five pass-catchers out due to NFL Draft declarations or portal entries. Hines is the last man standing and has already show capable of high-upside performances as a freshman, just as recently as Week 13 with 141 yards and a touchdown at Oregon. Debate could be made that Hines is the top WR option on the entire slate.
Bargain Bin – WR Zacharyus Williams ($3,500) or WR Jaden Richardson ($4,200) Richardson made a “bigger” impact this season, playing in 11 games, finishing the year with nine receptions on 14 targets. He’ll occupy one of the starting WR spots, but the intrigue is more with Williams. The Utah transfer only played in four games this season but was poached out of the portal following a strong performance in the spring game. Williams was expected to be Utah’s WR1 heading into the 2025 season.
Pivot Play – RB Waymond Jordan ($6,400) Jordan has already committed to returning to USC for the 2026 season and was in full pads during bowl practices. We’re still assuming that RB King Miller ($6,700) gets the start and the majority of carries, but not out of the realm of possibilities USC goes back to its RB1 from the start of the season and the likely RB1 they’ll commit to for next season. As for the matchup, TCU was far better against the run than the pass this season, ranked 11th in EPA per rush, 33rd in rush D success rate and 23rd in limiting explosive plays. The TCU defense should be mostly intact.
Best of the Rest – QB Jayden Maiava ($8,000) There is no lock at QB on the slate, so we can go in any direction, but do advise incorporating 2-QB lineups with the available options. QBs under Lincoln Riley have performed exceptionally in the last two bowl games for the Trojans, with Maiava and Miller Moss combining for six passing touchdowns in the last two years. The secondary is not the strength of the TCU defense, ranked 87th in success rate, 106th in explosive plays allowed, 87th in EPA, and gave up over 21 FPPG to quarterbacks.
Opt Outs / Injury Notes – TE Lake McRee (NFL), WR Ja’Kobi Lane (NFL), WR Makai Lemon (NFL), TE Walker Lyons (portal), RB Bryan Jackson (portal), WR Prince Strachan (portal)
TCU:
Top Play(s) – WR Eric McAlister ($7,500) McAlister finished the year as WR11 in college fantasy football with 1,104 yards and 10 touchdowns and was particularly strong in the second half of the year with five 100-yard performances in his last seven games. He’ll be the focal point of the offense with Jordan Dwyer not participating.
Fade – QB Ken Seals ($7,200) Seals is a downgrade from Josh Hoover, but still an experienced quarterback having started 20 games for Vanderbilt back in the SEC. He’s a non-runner and will have a first-time play-caller calling the plays with Kendal Briles off to South Carolina. Seals is good enough to keep the TCU wide receivers in play, but should not be considered on this slate, aside from game stack lineups.
Bargain Bin – WR Ed Small ($3,000) We’ll have to check pregame reports to see who is lining up in Jordan Dwyer’s spot. Small makes the most sense of the available options having played the most in 2025 amongst the backup TCU receivers, including a 101-yard performance against Kansas State in Week 7. The issue is that he filled in for WR Joseph Manjack ($5,100) in the slot, where he primarily played this year as a freshman. Does either Small or Manjack kick outside?
Best of the Rest – RB Jeremy Payne ($5,600) Payne was outstanding in the last two weeks of the regular season with nearly 300 combined rushing yards against two bowl teams in Cincinnati and Houston. Good chance the TCU offense leans on Payne if possible, with a backup QB under center. USC was good at limiting explosives on the ground, but the Trojans were just 121st in success rate, 97th in EPA per run play and will be without their defensive leader in linebacker Eric Gentry (and maybe their DC D’Anton Lynn too).
Opt Outs / Injury Notes – QB Josh Hoover (portal), WR Jordan Dwyer (out), RB Kevorian Barnes (questionable), RB Nate Palmer (portal)
Mike’s DK Core Four:
- WR Tanook Hines, USC
- WR Eric McAlister, TCU
- RB DeSean Bishop, Tennessee
- A Louisiana Tech running back
Mike’s FD Core Four:
- QB Owen McCown, UTSA
- RB Kejon Owens, FIU
- WR Alex Perry, FIU
- A Louisiana Tech running back
