Bowling Green vs. Minnesota
Point-Spread: Minn -3.5
O/U Total: 39.5
Implied Score: Minn 21.5 – BG 18
Weather: Dome
Bowling Green:
Top Play(s) – TE Harold Fannin ($6,600) How often have you seen a tight end be a team’s highest projected player? Normally I’d say that’s indicative of the rest of the Bowling Green offensive talent, but Fannin finished the season as TE3 behind only Brock Bowers and Dallin Holker from a FPPG perspective (13.6). Fannin was at his best late in the season as well, scoring 17 or more fantasy points in each of the last four games, targeted 27 times in that span. Must figure this will be a positive game script matchup for the Bowling Green pass-catchers being a 4.5-point underdog and injury concerns at running back.
Fade – QBs. The two other games on this slate have quarterbacks on both sides with higher projections than Connor Bazelak, who is a non-runner that will split reps at times with backup Camden Orth as we saw during MACtion.
Bargain Bin – See below if Terion Stewart is unavailable.
Pivot Play – RB Terion Stewart ($5,800) Will monitor pregame for Stewart’s status, as he was called a game-time decision by HC Scot Loeffler. With November star Ta’Ron Keith in the portal and not on the depth chart, should Stewart be healthy enough to play, he’ll get the lion’s share of the carries against what was a poor B1G run defense in Minnesota. 90th in rush D success rate and 97th in EPA per run play. If Stewart is out, experienced backup RB Jaisun Patterson ($3,000) would be next man up, and a potential option at min pricing. 233 carries of experience.
Best of the Rest – WRs. As stated above, game script should work in favor of the BG pass-catchers, particularly if Terion Stewart is not available. Top heavy target share among the three starting receivers, combining for 56% between Odieu Hilaire, Austin Osborne and Abdul-Fatai Ibrahim. Next closest WR has just 16 targets. Hilaire, a 700-yard receiver in 2022, saw a steep decline in production this season, but closed on a high not with 17 of his 63 targets coming in the last two games alone. He’s the upside play among the BG receivers.
Injury / Opt-Out Notes – RB Ta’Ron Keith (portal), TE Andrew Bench (portal), RB Terion Stewart (injury)
Minnesota:
Top Play(s) – RB Darius Taylor ($6,400) The freshman phenom is expected to make his triumphant return after no playing since Week 8. As has been the case for much of PJ Fleck’s tenure with the Gophers, this staff loves feeding their RB1, as we saw with Taylor who averaged over 25 rushing attempts per game in four starts. Assuming Fleck has his boys motivated, Minnesota should feasibly win up front, leading to a big day for Taylor.
Fade – QB Cole Kramer ($5,800) Here is the first sentence in an article written about Minnesota’s QB1 by the Minnesota Star Tribune. “Cole Kramer was ready to get on with his life.” That was before the Gopher coaching staff pleaded with Kramer to come back for one final game following the transfer of starting quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis. The fifth-year senior will make his first career start on Tuesday, and then will get married to his fiancée in February and pursue a career in sales as the happy couple moves to Arizona. Doesn’t sound like a quarterback I want if trying to make money with my DFS lineups.
Bargain Bin – Pass-Catchers. Everyone outside of Jackson is a risk because we don’t foresee Minnesota passing much with a future accountant at quarterback. Corey Crooms is entering the NFL Draft but will play Tuesday. Chris Autman-Bell has the narrative storyline going for him as the oft-injured senior in his final game. Tight end Brevyn Spann-Ford is the team’s third leading receiver with 25 receptions on 46 targets and two scores. Would not have more than one Minnesota pass-catcher in a lineup.
Pivot Play – WR Daniel Jackson ($5,600) One of 35 players to be targeted at least 100 times in 2023, accounting for 37% target share and over 50% of the team’s receiving touchdowns. If Minnesota drops back to pass at all, it’s likely going in Jackson’s direction.
Best of the Rest – RB Jordan Nubin ($4,800) Nubin’s relevance on Tuesday will be determined in the pregame if we get some indication that Taylor will not play or is limited in any fashion. The 215-pound walk-on averaged over 20 attempts per game in his final five starts, including a 204-yard performance on 40 carries in a win over Michigan State. Should see some rotational work with other backups either injured or in the portal.
Injury / Opt-Out Notes – RB Zach Evans (portal), QB Athan Kaliakmanis (portal)
Texas State vs. Rice
Point-Spread: Tex St -3.5
O/U Total: 59.5
Implied Score: Tex St 31.5 – Rice 28
Weather: 54 degrees / 0% rain / 13 mph winds
Texas State:
Top Play(s) – QB TJ Finley ($8,000) Top quarterback on the slate by a wide margin with a high game total and narrow spread. Rice secondary graded out fairly well during the regular season, ranking 31st in pass D success rate and 39th in EPA per pass play. The downside is that the Owls gave up over 21 FPPG to quarterbacks, allowing over 27 fantasy points to five different QBs.
Fade – WR Sean Shaw ($3,900) The Iowa State transfer did not make the expected impact some thought he would in 2023, finishing tied for fifth in the team with just 18 targets in 10 games. Shaw doesn’t have an injury designation but did not play in the season finale and is not listed on the two deep.
Bargain Bin – WR Chris Dawn Jr. ($3,600) The true freshman burned his redshirt in late November with the injuries to Joey Hobert and played well down the stretch with 12 of his 13 season-long targets coming in the last two games alone. The seven-target performance in Week 12 vs. Arkansas State did occur with all Texas State receivers available too, so Dawn seems like staple in the lineup moving forward.
Pivot Play – RB Ismail Mahdi ($6,200) Mahdi was admittedly a player I’d never heard of before until Week 1 against Baylor where he scored 22 fantasy points in the upset victory. Low and behold, Mahdi would wind up becoming one of the top fantasy running backs in the entire country with over 1,200 rushing yards and 11 rushing TDs, now just one rushing attempt shy of 200 carries for the season. When games are competitive and Mahdi is healthy, he’s the workhorse in the Texas State backfield. Rice allowed just 12.5 FPPG to RB1s this season but was a mediocre run defense based on the advanced metrics.
Best of the Rest – WRs. The lone injury-related news we need to look for is Joey Hobert who did not play in Week 13 but is still listed on the bowl game depth chart. Team leader in all receiving categories despite only playing 10 games in 2023. Targets are dispersed evenly among the top three receivers in Hobert, Kole Wilson, and Ashtyn Hawkins to where there is no lock among the group. Wilson led all Bobcat receivers in routes run with 60 receptions on 90 targets, including 26 targets combined over the last two games alone. Texas State is 7th nationally in plays per game, so multiple WRs in a lineup is a feasible strategy, but need Rice components on the other side.
Injury / Opt-Out Notes – n/a
Rice:
Top Play(s) – RB Dean Connors ($5,500) Probably not who you were expecting at the top spot for Rice, correct? We’ll get to the Owls’ WR1 later, but there are a surplus of talented wide receiver options on the slate. Not so much at running back, and Connors is a good one, averaging close to seven yards a carry this season with five rushing TDs. The most appealing part of Connors is his versatility as a pass-catcher with 42 receptions on 54 targets. So, no matter the game script, Connors should be a factor in the Rice offense. Texas State allowed 17 FPPG to opposing RB1s.
Fade – RB Juma Otoviano ($4,400) Otoviano’s best performance of the season came last time out against FAU, rushing for 71 yards on 15 carries….in a game where Rice was up double-figures throughout. No more than 10 rushing attempts in any other game prior to that as the RB2 behind Connors, averaging just 3.6 YPC for the season. WR Kobie Campbell ($5,100) is listed as a backup to Luke McCaffrey, and far too expensive at this salary with fewer than 25 receiving yards in all but one game this season. Rice runs almost exclusively two-tight end sets.
Bargain Bin – TE Boden Groen ($4,200) Groen filled in late in the year as a hybrid tight end / wide receiver due to the injuries at the WR position, finishing third on the team with 37 receptions on 47 targets – seeing season highs in routes run and targets (8) in the finale vs. FAU.
Pivot Play – QB AJ Padgett ($6,500) I remember watching Rice’s bowl game last season against Southern Miss where Padgett threw for three touchdowns and being very confused as to why the coaching staff brought in JT Daniels in the offseason. Padgett has clear talent as shown late this season, throwing for six touchdowns in the last three games, completing nearly 64% of his passes. Great matchup against a bad Texas State secondary, allowing 20.1 FPPG to QB1s and 122nd in EPA per pass play defensively. Game script should also work in Padgett’s favor, though he’ll have to do it extensively through the air as a non-runner.
Best of the Rest – WR Luke McCaffrey ($8,000) 29% target share and 12 of the team’s 28 receiving touchdowns. There are enough WRs on the slate that McCaffrey isn’t a lock, but only one other wideout (Ricky White) rivals these numbers as a legitimate target hog. Texas State allowed 17 FPPG to opposing WR1s. WRs Landon Ransom-Goelz ($4,900) and Rawson MacNeill ($5,400) are listed as starters on the depth chart but have combined for just eight receptions over the last three games.
Injury / Opt-Out Notes – QB JT Daniels (retired)
Kansas vs. UNLV
Point-Spread: KU -12.5
O/U Total: 67.5
Implied Score: KU 40 – UNLV 27.5
Weather: 56 degrees / 0% rain / 4 mph winds
Kansas:
Top Play(s) – RB Devin Neal ($7,900) On paper, this is a fantastic matchup for Neal who is our 6th highest ranked player in all of college bowl season with a 25-point projection, facing a UNLV defense that allowed 16 FPPG to RB1s. Neal has stated that he’ll play in the bowl game, but has yet to decide on his future plans, whether that means transfer to a bigger program, return to the Jayhawks or enter the NFL Draft. The fact that the books have not listed his player prop number (as of Sunday writing this), has me somewhat cautious about his availability.
Fade – n/a – All regular contributors on the Kansas offense are in play with a 40-point implied team total.
Bargain Bin – TE Mason Fairchild ($4,400) Tied for first on the team in touchdowns (3), second in routes run and fourth in targets (36). Seven different tight ends this season scored eight or more fantasy points against UNLV who allowed 7.6 FPPG to TE1s.
Pivot Play – RB Daniel Hishaw ($4,500) If we come across any potential funny business leading up to game-time regarding Neal and his status, pivoting to Hishaw could be a slate-winning move. His production has diminished the last month of the regular season but still averaged five yards a carry in 2023 with seven rushing touchdowns. Kansas being a two-touchdown favorite against a poor rush defense keeps Hishaw in the realm of options regardless of if Neal plays or not.
Best of the Rest – QB Jason Bean ($8,900) I must admit I think our projection is a bit on the low side for Bean who will be playing in his final collegiate game on Tuesday. That’s especially the case if Devin Neal does not play as KU would likely lean towards the pass a bit. UNLV was worse against the pass than the run, allowing 22 FPPG to QB1s and 120th in EPA per pass play defensively. We saw another dual threat in Boise State’s Taylen Green torch this same defense the last time we saw the Rebels in the MWC title game.
I’m writing this up on Christmas Eve and can think of 100 things I’d rather be doing than dissecting the Kansas receivers. Lawrence Arnold, Luke Grimm, and Quentin Skinner are separated by four targets and have between 2-3 receiving touchdowns each. There is no difference between the three. Limit one max in your lineups as Jason Bean is unlikely to throw the ball 30+ times.
Injury / Opt-Out Notes – WR Tanaka Scott (transfer)
UNLV:
Top Play(s) – WR Ricky White ($7,200) White’s performance against Boise State in the conference title game was his lowest fantasy output since September, scoring 1.46 fantasy points with six catches on eight targets. If that’s the floor, he needs to be a lock. 34% target share and 50% of the team’s receiving touchdowns. We’re not concerned with the quarterback situation as both players have considerable experience.
Fade – RB Jai’den Thomas ($4,700) I did not locate confirmation on this yet, but CFFSite Discorder and UNLV fan “Bobbycuesauce” posted that Thomas will not play on Tuesday. We’ll look for further confirmation pregame, but this will at least force us to lessen exposure for Thomas, if not remove entirely. FWIW – Thomas is still listed on the UNLV bowl game depth chart.
Bargain Bin – WR Corey Thompson Jr. ($4,000) The true freshman burned his redshirt by playing a season-high in snaps against Boise State last time out, leading all UNLV receivers in routes run. Four targets in each of the last two games.
Pivot Play – RB Vincent Davis ($5,300) UNLV has been a RBBC all season under offensive coordinator Brennan Marion, but that changed in the MWC title game with Davis garnering 14 of the 23 carries, with no other running back having more than 2 attempts. Kansas is awful against the run, allowing 20 FPPG to RB1s and 115th in rush D success rate. Given UNLV employs a committee approach typically and with the possible defections of two Rebel running backs in Thomas and Courtney Reese, RB Donavyn Lester ($4,300) could see an expanded role as well. Nine rushing TDs in 2023.
Best of the Rest – QBs. Talented freshman Jayden Maiava entered the transfer portal earlier this offseason but has not committed to playing anywhere as of yet, and there’s video evidence of him participating in bowl practices. Does he start? Get the full game? Split with Doug Brumfield? All possibilities seem to be on the table. Kansas allowed 20 FPPG this season to QB1s and were 106th in pass D success rate. Game script also works in the favor of whomever gets the starting nod. Let’s hope there is clarity here come Tuesday. WR Jacob De Jesus ($4,500) finished second on the team in targets (71), receptions (52) and touchdowns (3). 59% of UNLV’s total receptions this season went to either De Jesus or Ricky White.
Injury / Opt-Out Notes – QB Jayden Maiava (transfer), RB Courtney Reese (transfer).
