Maryland vs. Virginia Tech
Point-Spread: MD -3.5
O/U Total: 55
Weather: 45 degrees / 15% rain / 6 mph winds
Maryland:
It was an impressive showing the last time we saw Maryland, blowing out Rutgers 40-16 in what was arguably Taulia Tagovailoa’s best performance of the season, throwing for 312 yards and three scores. The Hokies’ secondary played very well for much of the year, ranking 19th in Pass Play Success Rate, but allowed 27 FPPG to opposing QB1s and will be without top cornerback Jermaine Waller. AND they could be without his running mate in the secondary in Brion Murphy. As of writing this, pricing is not out yet (of course) on DraftKings, but Tagovailoa against a depleted secondary is appealing. Slot receivers gave the Hokies all sorts of fits during the regular season as Josh Downs, Jimmy Marshall and Courtney Jackson were the highest-scoring fantasy wideouts to face Virginia Tech. Both Rakim Jarrett and Brian Cobbs are in play as they’ll split time inside. Jarrett had a very strong close to the regular season with 19 receptions on 28 targets with a pair of 100-yard performances. Following the injuries to Dontay Demus and Jeshaun Jones, MD was rotating a bunch of receivers in and out of the lineup, but the Terps seem to have settled on a top three with Jarrett, Cobbs and 6-foot-5 Carlos Carriere who played the majority of the snaps in the final three weeks. All three should be viable against this secondary. We currently don’t have a projection for tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo who finished second on the team with 49-433-5, but I don’t see any confirmation that he is “not” playing in the bowl game despite declaring for the NFL Draft. He’s in play as Maryland’s No. 2 pass-catcher, but Virginia Tech defended the position well this season, allowing just 2.7 FPPG to opposing TE1s. Should he somehow be out, Corey Dyches would get the nod.
Maryland struggles to run the football, but the Hokies can’t stop the run, and will be without a starter along the defensive line. Depending on salary, I do like Tayon Fleet-Davis in this matchup as Maryland will feature their RB1 more in competitive games. TFD closed the year strong with a 152-yard, two-touchdown performance vs. Rutgers and is often utilized in the screen game where he caught 31 passes on 38 targets. Biggest issue for me here is the late-season involvement of freshman Colby McDonald who saw 18 and 16 carries, respectively, in the final two weeks. A 3-star recruit that did hold a Michigan offer, McDonald is the likely RB1 for Maryland looking towards 2022 and should get plenty of run in this matchup. The Hokies allowed just 16.1 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season but were 90th in Rush Play Success Rate.
Virginia Tech:
Over / Under the Hokies passing the ball 5.5 times? Connor Blumrick will start in place of Braxton Burmeister at QB, and is a downgrade as a passer. Didn’t think that would be possible when comparing to Burmeister. Blumrick is a good athlete as evidenced by his Week 12 performance vs. Miami when he rushed for 132 yards on 20 carries. 10-15 carries is a realistic expectation from Blumrick for Wednesday. Virginia Tech will also be without starting receivers Tayvion Robinson and Tre Turner who departed for greener pastures. To make matters even worse for the passing game, their replacements, Kaleb Smith and DeWain Lofton, may not play either, according to The Athletic. A true skeleton crew at receiver with an inept passer means we can ignore this passing attack altogether. Raheem Blackshear declared for the NFL Draft, but is expected to play alongside true freshman Malachi Thomas in what is expected to be a run-heavy game plan for Wednesday. The former Rutgers transfer gets the nod as he averaged 12 carries a game over the last six weeks, including a pair of 100-yard performances against Duke and Virginia. Thomas’ production fell off a cliff late in the year, but I wouldn’t immediately discount him – depending on price – with the Hokies likely running the football 40+ times as a team in this matchup. Have to think these extra practices were beneficial to the freshman. Virginia Tech will have their starting five intact along the offensive line that was 34th in Line Yards and 45th in Rush Play Success Rate. Maryland allowed the fifth most fantasy points in the country (24.2 FPPG) to opposing RB1s this season.
Clemson vs. Iowa State
Point-Spread: Clem -1.5
O/U Total: 44
Weather: 77 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Clemson:
Tell us prior to the season that Clemson takes on Iowa State in a bowl game and you’d think it was a College Football Playoff matchup. Instead, we have two teams coming off disappointing years that probably just want to experience Disney World as opposed to playing an actual football game. I can’t see myself having much interest in D.J. Uiagalelei after throwing just nine touchdown passes during the regular season, and projected at just 12.5 fantasy points in this matchup with a good Iowa State secondary that finished second in the Big 12 in yards allowed per game through the air. That said, QBs did have success against the Cyclones from a fantasy perspective with four different quarterbacks scoring 29 points or more. Tough to envision DJU replicating the success, and Vegas certainly doesn’t appear to think he can with an implied total of just 22.5 points.
Unless I missed some news somewhere, I disagree with our projections that Kobe Pace will outscore Will Shipley as the true freshman closed the season with three 100-yard rushing performances in his last four games played with five TDs in that span. This is a far better run defense Shipley/Pace will face in Iowa State vs. the likes of Florida State, Wake Forest and South Carolina, but the Cyclones were giving up yards in chunks late in the year where Texas Tech and Oklahoma both averaged six yards a carry in their matchup. Iowa State allowed just 13.8 FPPG to opposing RB1s on the season and were 41st in Rush Play Success Rate. Surprised Clemson didn’t get Shipley more involved in the passing game this season with just 16 total targets. Maybe we see more involvement with new co-offensive coordinator Brandon Streeter?
Joe Ngata was shown to be dressed and back at practice as of Monday, but questionable if he plays or not Wednesday. I believe E.J. Williams should be a go so the top five at receiver would feasibly consist of Ngata, Williams, Dacari/Beaux Collins and Will Swinney. Regardless of who is in/out, Beaux Collins has to be considered the top option here with his late-season performances, targeted nine times in three of the last four games with a pair of 100-yard performances. Ngata gets the other nod from me if choosing a second Clemson WR as he was up towards 25 percent of the team target share prior to the injury, but need to ensure he is available first before rostering him. Both outside and slot receivers have found success against the Cyclones this year so really no priority between the two. Myles Price and Brennan Presley – two slot receivers – posted two of the three highest fantasy performances against Iowa State this season.
Iowa St:
Breece Hall is off to the NFL and off the depth chart so I doubt he plays Wednesday, if that wasn’t official already. Former 4-star recruit Jihrel Brock will get the start but likely will fade him against a Clemson defense that allowed just 11.8 FPPG to opposing RB1s during the regular season and were 4th in Rush Play Success Rate. I want to reiterate that I’m writing this Tuesday morning before DK has released salaries. My interest in Brock would change if he’s sub $4k. Iowa State’s offensive line didn’t play well enough this season where they can just swap in a backup running back and find success – not against this defensive front. Ranked 72nd in Line Yards and 107th in Stuff Rate.
Iowa State should have all the important pieces from the passing game, meaning we’ll see Brock Purdy, Xavier Hutchinson and tight end Charlie Kolar finish out their collegiate careers. Clemson wasn’t as good at defending the pass as they were the run, but still ranked 14th in Pass Play Success Rate and gave up just 17.8 FPPG to opposing QB1s. Iowa State’s game-plan likely doesn’t change much, even without Hall, but figure they might pass a bit more given the circumstances. Kolar was exceptional down the stretch with 42 targets in the last four games alone, but faces a Clemson defense that allowed under 5.0 FPPG to opposing TE1s. Clemson allowed the 10th fewest fantasy points in the country to opposing WR1s, but Hutchinson is a target hog that accounted for 27 percent of the team share. With Joe Scates and Tarique Milton both in the portal, Purdy will have fewer options to pass to. True freshman slot receiver Jaylin Noel saw his playing time increase as the season went along, and should be a decent punt option. 24 of his 44 total targets came in the final month. FWIW – Sean Shaw Jr. is listed as the WR3 but was targeted all of 10 times this season.
Oregon vs. Oklahoma
Point-Spread: Okla -7
O/U Total: 60.5
Weather: Dome
Oregon:
We’ll see if this game still happens as Oregon is expected to be without upwards of 30 players on Wednesday. Here is the link if you want to view who won’t be available, but appears the key pieces for us to know are receivers Devon Williams, Johnny Johnson and Jaylon Redd who likely won’t play due to injury or NFL Draft opt outs. From what I can see, looks like the Oregon offensive line should be intact which increases our interest in Travis Dye and backup Byron Cardwell as this likely is a run-oriented game plan from the Ducks with all the departures at wide receiver. The Sooners’ defense is best at stopping the run, ranked 39th in Rush Play Success Rate and 25th nationally, allowing just 3.63 YPC. This will be a battle of strengths then as Oregon is 2nd in Rush Play Success Rate and 7th in Line yards. OC Joe Moorhead is staying on to call the plays despite taking a head coaching job at Akron, so there should be some continuity on offense.
QB Anthony Brown projects well at over 23 fantasy points, but will be working with a M.A.S.H unit at receiver with a ton of youth, starting potentially three freshmen, and could wind up splitting time with FR Ty Thompson who the fanbase has been clamoring for. Have to wonder if the Oregon administration has some input here with no Mario Cristobal around, forcing the staff’s hand to see what they have in the talented true freshman. We know Brown is gone after this year. This is a very favorable matchup for whoever is at QB, given that Oklahoma allowed 29.7 FPPG to opposing QB1s during the regular season, but the potential for a split here gives me pause on rostering Brown. With Williams out of the picture, three freshmen are listed atop the depth chart in Kris Hutson, Troy Franklin and Dont’e Thornton. Hutson has the most production of the trio, with 12 catches on 21 targets in the last three games, but as we touched on earlier in the year, it tends to be the bigger/faster outside receivers that have given the Sooners’ secondary fits – Xavier Worthy, Quentin Johnston and Erik Ezukanma had the three highest scoring outputs vs. Oklahoma in 2021. That favors Franklin/Thornton, but how much do we trust freshmen, and more importantly, how much do we trust Brown to get them the ball? I’m fine with fading the passing game altogether here with the uncertainty and youth, and focus on the running backs. If Anthony Brown does end up playing the entirety of the game, and considering how poorly OU has done against opposing QBs, he could be a steal in GPPs.
Oklahoma:
Caleb Williams is the lock of the slate, regardless of pricing, projected at over 30 fantasy points. You rarely want to have 100 percent exposure to a player, but given the options on this three-gamer, you’ll start most of your lineups with Williams as QB1. I’m not fully in-tune with the happenings currently around the Oklahoma program, but sounds like Williams hasn’t made a firm decision about whether to return or not in 2022, so he’ll be plenty motivated on Wednesday to show the new staff or another school how talented he is. The Ducks were 86th in Pass Play Success Rate during the regular season, allowed 24.9 FPPG to opposing QB1s and won’t have the services of their best pass rusher in Kayvon Thibodeaux who declared for the NFL Draft.
With Lincoln Riley out the door, and Marvin Mims confirming he wants to remain a Sooner with the new coaching staff, do we get to see the unleashed version on Wednesday with no snap count limitations? Slot receivers gave the Ducks all sorts of fits during the regular season and Mims should be matched up with one of the lower-graded defenders on the Oregon defense in Jamal Hill. The ultimate high floor / low ceiling DFS option. Jadon Haselwood transferred to Arkansas so it will be the speedy Trevon West who will start in his spot at the WR-X position. Everything else remains the same with Michael Woods II and Mario Williams splitting reps on the outside. Don’t think it’s necessary to stack Williams with any OU receiver – nobody has more than 17 percent of the team target share – but Mims and Williams (Mario) are the game-breakers of the group that could win you a GPP.
Offensive line remains intact, as does the OU backfield, so we’ll see both Kennedy Brooks and Eric Gray on Wednesday. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Gray get extended run here as the team looks toward 2022 with Brooks off to the NFL, but the latter dominated the volume in the backfield, averaging 11 more attempts per game. This Oregon defense was exposed by Utah late in the year, but OU isn’t capable of dominating a game up front like the Utes. The offensive line finished 84th in Line Yards and 112th in Stuff Rate. Thibodeaux being out helps matters, and the Sooners did finish 29th in Rush Play Success Rate on the year. Brooks projects at 16.2 fantasy points, so his viability will depend on pricing for me – whenever DK and FD decide to finally release them.