Western Kentucky vs. James Madison
Point-Spread: JMU -8
O/U Total: 51
Implied Score: JMU 29.5 – WKU 21.5
Weather: 77 degrees / 47% rain / 11 mph winds
Western Kentucky:
Top Play(s) – QB Caden Veltkamp ($7,700) QB position on the slate should be straightforward if those we expect to play…play. Veltkamp is in the portal but has confirmed he’ll start on Wednesday and is the clear second-best option at the position after Hajj-Malik Williams. If we start to read pregame that additional WKU starters will not suit up because they’re in the transfer portal, then we pivot to another option, but players in the portal have typically played in the bowl game under Tyson Helton.
Fade – RB George Hart ($4,200) WKU running backs carried the ball 263 times in 2024. 72% of those went to Elijah Young. Game script likely won’t feature a ton of running from the Hilltoppers.
Bargain Bin – TE Noah Meyers ($3,000) Meyers stepped in for the injured River Helms and played over 80% of the team’s offensive snaps in three of the last four games and was targeted three times in each of the last two weeks. If there was a position group that James Madison struggled to defend, it was tight ends, allowing five different players to score at least 12 fantasy points against them.
Pivot Play – WR Dalvin Smith ($3,900) There is just something about Dalvin Smith and the late-season fireworks. In 2022, Smith had 19 targets in his last two games with 145-yards in the bowl game over South Alabama. In 2023, Smith caught four of his six touchdowns in the last three weeks, including a season-high 13 targets in the bowl game. Smith was limited to just 15 total receiving yards in two games vs. Jacksonville State to end the season, but last I checked…. Jacksonville State is not the opponent here.
Best of the Rest – RB Elijah Young ($5,800) The most consistent offensive weapon on the WKU offense in the last month of the season as both a runner and receiver. Young’s usage in the passing game is his biggest appeal, with 17 receptions on 17 targets in the last four games. JMU is a stout run defense, so you should not lock Young in as a core piece, but he might be the most trustworthy option heading into Wednesday for the Hilltoppers. Seven of JMU’s 13 rushing touchdowns allowed this season came in the last three games.
Starting WRs Kisean Johnson ($6,500) and WR Easton Messer ($4,800) are our projected starters still, though a bit of trepidation with Messer in the portal. If we get word that he’s out, WR KD Hutchinson ($3,100) is the top beneficiary as they play the same slot position. Seven receptions on nine targets for Hutchinson in the last two games.
Injury Notes – QB Caden Veltkamp (Portal – expected to play), WR Easton Messer (portal), WR Moussa Barry (portal), WR Demick Starling (portal), RB LT Sanders (portal), TE River Helms (Out for season), WR Koy Moore (portal)
James Madison:
Top Play(s) – RB George Pettaway ($5,500) Stars align for the JMU running backs to be the offensive focal point on Wednesday. Backup QB. Near double-digit favorites. And the WKU run defense is atrocious, ranking 122nd in success rate and 109th in EPA per run play. To reiterate, as of now most WKU players are expected to start but could be noteworthy that five defensive starters and a few others on the two-deep are currently in the portal.
Fade – WR Cam Ross ($5,100) Playing time didn’t change to close the year, but Ross had just a combined 48 yards and four receptions over the last three games. And that was with Alonza Barnett under center. We’re looking at other options at wide receiver at a lower cost.
Bargain Bin – QB Billy Atkins ($4,500) Atkins is cheap enough to consider but the latest video report I saw on Monday suggested that both he and freshman JC Evans could see snaps. There’s simply a clear top two at the QB position for this mini two-gamer that I don’t think playing down to Atkins is necessary, but the cost is minimal. WKU allowed around 21 FPPG to quarterbacks this season, so far from a dominant secondary. If building your lineups around JMU finding success on the ground, RB Jobi Malary ($3,100) could be a longshot play after rushing for 100+ in the season finale, leading the team in rushing attempts. We’ll look for any injury updates in the backfield pregame as that was Malary’s season-high in carries.
Pivot Play – RB Wayne Knight ($3,800) Like Knight as a pivot off Pettaway or potentially in a stackable situation, as he’s garnered double-digit rushing attempts in each of the last three games. The 184-pound sophomore is averaging over six yards a carry for the season and has not averaged less than five yards per attempt in a game since September.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Barring a surprise, the top three at receiver are set for the Dukes with Ross, WR Yamir Knight ($4,200) and WR Omarion Dollison ($4,800) who combined for 56% of the team’s target share between them. Not expecting a heavy pass-script here given the matchup, so limit one JMU wideout to a lineup. TE Taylor Thompson ($3,400) was a narrow fourth on the team with 50 targets, and second in touchdown receptions (5).
Injury Notes – QB Alonza Barnett ($9,000) Barnett suffered a leg injury and was seen on crutches on the sidelines in the finale. Not expected to play.
California vs. UNLV
Point-Spread: Cal -1
O/U Total: 48
Implied Score: Cal 24.5 – UNLV 23.5
Weather: Dome
California:
Top Play(s) – TE Jack Endries ($3,600) Endries is now Cal’s current leading receiver on the roster with WR1 Nyziah Hunter in the portal and unlikely to play. His 5.1 average depth of target is perfect for whomever lines up at QB for the Bears as the safety blanket within the first-down yard markers. Cal allowed around 9.6 FPPG to the tight end position this season.
Fade – QBs. Chandler Rogers is unlikely to play. Ohio transfer CJ Harris and freshman EJ Caminong are sharing reps in practice, and we’ll likely see two quarterbacks for the Bears on Wednesday that combined for just 11 pass attempts during the regular season. No thanks.
Bargain Bin – WR Trond Grizzell ($3,400) Normally would favor receivers that are listed on the prop market as potential contributors but want to point out that Grizzell only played 14% of the team’s offensive snaps in the finale vs. SMU. Would make sure he’s a go before even considering.
Pivot Play – RB Jadyn Ott ($5,700) Ott played a season-high 91% of the team’s snaps in Week 14, but the running game struggles continued for the Bears, as Ott rushed for just 37 yards on 13 attempts. UNLV finished atop the standings in the Mountain West in yards allowed per game on the ground, so Ott is far from a preferred play in this matchup, given that Cal finished 124th in rush offense success rate. But Jaivian Thomas did miss the season finale against SMU, and there aren’t any status updates out there currently. If Thomas is out again, Ott should get the bulk of the carries.
Best of the Rest – WRs. As we know from his days at Ohio, CJ Harris struggles with the concept of the forward pass. And EJ Caminong has yet to throw a pass at the collegiate level. So, we’d advise not playing more than one Cal pass-catcher in a lineup. If basing our suggestions off the previous game, our pecking order at receiver would go… Jonathan Brady > Tobias Merriweather > Mikey Matthews > Trond Grizzell.
Injury Notes – QB Fernando Mendoza (portal), QB Chandler Rogers (injury), WR Nzyiah Hunter (portal), RB Jaivan Thomas (injury)
UNLV:
Top Play(s) – QB Hajj-Malik Williams ($8,500) Do not see a scenario at cashing here where HMW is not the centerpiece of any lineup, regardless of if his WR1 plays or not. Not so much because of Williams, but the likelihood that both California and James Madison both use two quarterbacks, essentially nullifying those situations from the equation. Double-digit rushing attempts is a near lock for HMW with this being his last collegiate game.
Fade – WR Ricky White ($7,500) We need CLEAR confirmation that White is a go to roster him as rumors swirl that the UNLV WR1 is a potential opt-out candidate with his sights on the NFL. Even if White plays, there’s the chance of a “soft-out” where he plays for a quarter, half, etc. (remember Oklahoma State’s Tylan Wallace a few years back?).
Bargain Bin – WR Corey Thompson ($3,000) Thompson becomes the top outside receiving option if Ricky White opts out. Just four receptions on the season but was targeted seven times in the conference championship game vs. Boise State. We did see glimpses of ability last year as a freshman from Thompson with 50 yards and a TD vs. San Jose State. WR Casey Cain ($3,300) would also see his role elevated if White were out.
Pivot Play – WR Jacob de Jesus ($4,100) UNLV rarely threw to anyone outside of Ricky White and Jacob de Jesus this season, as the duo combined for 60% of the team’s target share. JdJ had double the number of targets as the next closest UNLV receiver.
Best of the Rest – RB Jai’den Thomas ($5,000) Cal has not had any opt-outs on the defensive side of the ball, and the Bears finished second in the ACC in yards allowed on the ground. Thomas is not a priority given he’ll share carries with HMW. TE Kaleo Ballungay ($3,100) was second on the team in receiving touchdowns (6). Longshot play is RB Kylin James ($3,400) who doesn’t see a ton of volume but had a 20+ yard run in five of his last six games, including an 86-yarder where he was caught from behind by a Boise defender in the MWC title game.
Injury Notes – Ricky White opt-out watch.
Mike’s Core Four:
- QB Hajj Malik-Williams, UNLV
- RB George Pettaway, James Madison
- QB Caden Veltkamp, Western Kentucky
- RB Elijah Young, Western Kentucky
