Texas vs. Arizona State
- Point-Spread: Tex -13.5
- O/U Total: 51.5
- Implied Score: Tex 37.5 – ASU 24
- Weather: Dome
Texas:
Top Play(s) – RB Tre Wisner ($7,000) Wisner left the game late against Clemson but was mentioned on the broadcast that he could have gone back in had the score been closer. Prior to leaving, the Texas run game was mauling the Tigers front seven, with Wisner averaging 7.3 YPC. Wisner is Texas’ top option, but not as big a smash play as he was against Clemson for two reasons: (1) Arizona State is significantly better than Clemson against the run, and (2) RB Jaydon Blue ($5,900) might be back in the good graces of the coaching staff after rushing for 146 yards and two scores. More importantly…no fumbles.
Fade – WR Isaiah Bond ($4,500) Reports are stating that Bond is expected to play on Wednesday, but his ankle injury is one that will need an offseason to be fully healed. Not just magically heal in a few weeks. In the article by Texas beat writers about Bond, they still included this notion in their article – “If Bond is healthy enough to face the Sun Devils.” Not worth the risk.
Bargain Bin – TE Gunnar Helm ($4,100) Take out the SEC Championship and Helm has been targeted at least five times in every game since Week 11. DK still refuses to price him up to a level he should be at. WR Ryan Wingo ($3,400) was quiet against Clemson with just two receptions on four targets, but he’s the secondary WR that is unaffected by Isaiah Bond’s return. Bond potentially starting or splitting time in the slot downgrades WR DeAndre Moore Jr. ($4,000) as they share the slot position.
Pivot Play – WR Matthew Golden ($4,900) Of the position groups that have succeeded most against Arizona State this season, wide receivers top the list, averaging around 40 FPPG combined against the Sun Devils. Golden is the bonafide WR1 for the Longhorns against a secondary that has allowed five receivers to score 21 or more fantasy points against them this season.
Best of the Rest – QB Quinn Ewers ($8,000) Week 11 was the last time Ewers scored more than 20 fantasy points in a game. Just three QBs scored more than 20 fantasy points all year against Arizona State. Ewers really isn’t in the conversation to be a QB option on this slate.
Injury Notes – n/a
Arizona State:
Top Play(s) – RB Cam Skattebo ($9,400) I mean…who else would it be? Texas is just 58th in rush D success rate, so not impenetrable, and have given up rush yards in its biggest games, allowing 32 fantasy points to Trevor Etienne in Week 8, and then 94 yards and two scores in the SEC Championship. So, it can done.
Fade – QB Sam Leavitt ($7,500) Cade Klubnik’s performance last week against the Longhorns was just the second instance ALL YEAR LONG in which a quarterback scored more than 11 fantasy points against Texas. I’ll take the odds that Leavitt doesn’t hit value as most QBs haven’t vs. Texas in 2024.
Bargain Bin – WRs. Xavier Guillory and Melquan Stovall caught 50% of the team’s completions in the B12 title game vs. Iowa State, combining for over 100 yards and two touchdowns without Jordyn Tyson in the lineup. I wouldn’t go overboard with exposure here, considering Texas allows just 20 combined fantasy points a game to opposing WR groups, but both are cheap and will play the entire game.
Pivot Play – TE Chamon Metayer ($3,100) The three best tight ends Texas faced this season had mild success against the Longhorns – Colston Loveland (14 fpts) and Eli Stowers (12 fpts). Jake Briningstool had a strong performance last week as well with 4-69-0 on six targets. Metayer was on the field for 86% of the snaps in the B12 title game.
Best of the Rest – WR Troy Omerie ($3,000) The former Texas transfer might have some added motivation on Wednesday facing his former team. Omerie didn’t do much with his extended playing time against Iowa State, but he was on the field a ton (34 of 43 snaps played).
Injury Notes – n/a
Ohio State vs. Oregon
- Point-Spread: OSU -2.5
- O/U Total: 55.5
- Implied Score: OSU 29 – Oreg 26.5
- Weather: 74 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Ohio State:
Top Play(s) – QB Will Howard ($8,100) Just two quarterbacks scored over 15 fantasy points this season against the Oregon defense. And one of those was Will Howard, who notched 29 fantasy points in the narrow loss to the Ducks. Dillon Gabriel is preferred over Howard, but these are easily the top two QBs on the slate.
Fade – RB Quinshon Judkins ($6,500) Salaries are flipped. RB TreVeyon Henderson ($5,800) should have the higher price tag as he’s largely been the better of the two running backs since this previous matchup with Oregon. Judkins found the end-zone twice last week vs. Tennessee but has averaged over four yards a carry just twice in the last eight games.
Bargain Bin – WR Carnell Tate ($3,600) As is customary and has been the case the entire season, Tate is underpriced. Just outside the top four core pieces and easily the best bargain bin option. Quiet day against Tennessee last time out, but nothing changed with Tate’s playing time, running the second most routes among Ohio State wideouts.
Pivot Play – Stacking WR Jeremiah Smith ($6,200) and WR Emeka Egbuka ($5,800) The duo combined for 52 fantasy points in the first meeting and were instrumental in the destruction of Tennessee with nearly 200 receiving yards and 11 receptions on 14 targets. Big Game Buka is a thing, with a combined 43 targets (8.8 per game) against Tennessee, Michigan, Indiana, Oregon and Iowa.
Best of the Rest – TE Gee Scott Jr. ($3,200) Scott converted on all four of his targets in the win over Tennessee and scored 7.6 fantasy points in the previous matchup with Ohio State. His playing time has increased over the second half of the season.
Injury Notes – n/a
Oregon:
Top Play(s) – QB Dillon Gabriel ($8,200) Don’t overthink it. Top QB on the slate. Threw for 341 yards and three total touchdowns in the first matchup, and now Oregon is an underdog which may result in higher passing volume for Gabriel if in a trailing position. Gabriel has also played three games against teams in the CFP currently. He averaged 289 yards per game with eight touchdowns and zero interceptions in those matchups.
Fade – n/a. All Oregon players are priced appropriately.
Bargain Bin – TE Terrance Ferguson ($3,300) or TE Keyon Sadiq ($3,000) Ferguson scored 10 fantasy points in the team’s first matchup, while Sadiq displayed why he may be a top fantasy tight end in 2025, scoring two touchdowns in the win over Penn State in the B1G title game.
Pivot Play – Stacking Oregon WRs. Last time out against Penn State, the Ducks did not rotate AT ALL at receiver with Traeshon Holden, Tez Johnson and Evan Stewart all playing over 70% of the team’s offensive snaps. Gary Bryant Jr. was the only other Oregon wideout to even log a snap (1). We expect higher passing volume from the Ducks in this matchup as alluded to above, and both Johnson and Stewart combined for 42 fantasy points in the previous matchup. We strongly suggest having one Oregon wideout in a lineup, and two is absolutely viable in GPPs.
Best of the Rest – RB Jordan James ($7,500) More interested in the Oregon pass game components than James on the slate simply because we have more options to choose from at the RB position. James scored 19 fantasy points in the team’s first matchup and 20+ carries is a near lock if this game is competitive (which it should be). RB Noah Whittington ($3,800) has 60 or more rushing yards in three of the last four games, two of which were blowouts though. His production is unpredictable.
Injury Notes – n/a
Notre Dame vs. Georgia
- Point-Spread: UGA -1.5
- O/U Total: 45.5
- Implied Score: UGA 23.5 – ND 22
- Weather: Dome
Notre Dame:
Top Play(s) – RB Jeremyiah Love ($7,300) Love was limited to just 8 rushing attempts vs. Indiana last time out with the flu but is at full health headed into Wednesday. If there is one position group that had consistent success against Georgia, it would be running backs where at least five RBs scored 16 fantasy points this season against UGA. And it’s difficult to be more consistent than scoring a touchdown in EVERY game this year like Love has accomplished to this point.
Fade – WR Kris Mitchell ($3,600) Mitchell ranked fourth among ND receivers in routes run vs. Indiana and played just 20 of 68 offensive snaps yet priced above both Beaux Collins and Jaden Greathouse. Playing time indicates those salaries should be flipped.
Bargain Bin – TE Mitchell Evans ($3,300) The highest projected ND pass-catcher at the lowest salary among those in the rotation. Evans has been trending up the last month and a half with three touchdowns in the last five games played. Three tight ends scored double-digit fantasy points this season vs. the Dawgs.
Pivot Play – WR Jordan Faison ($3,800) Sign of things to come or an aberration? Notre Dame really spread the ball around this season, with its leading receiver accounting for just 17% of the team’s target share. Faison emerged as a go-to option against Indiana with seven receptions on nine targets.
Best of the Rest – QB Riley Leonard ($8,300) If you’re trying to diversify without Dillon Gabriel or Will Howard in your lineups, Leonard is the third option at QB. But even then, that’s a distant third as UGA allowed just 14 FPPG to quarterbacks this season, with only two QBs scoring more than 16 fantasy points against the Bulldogs. That included Jalen Milroe’s Herculean-like performance, and Michael Van Buren in a game vs. an unmotivated UGA defense. This slate really just boils down to Dillon Gabriel, Will Howard, or one QB lineups. WRs Beaux Collins ($3,500) and WR Jaden Greathouse ($3,300) were second and third among ND wide receivers in snaps played vs. the Hoosiers.
Injury Notes – n/a
Georgia:
Top Play(s) – RB Trevor Etienne ($6,000) Core play for me and it’s pretty simple. Etienne is healthy, Georgia is lacking depth in the backfield, will be playing with a backup QB, and most importantly, the Bulldogs have leaned on their RB1 in their biggest games of the season (see Texas). Notre Dame is elite in the secondary but can be vulnerable on the ground at times.
Fade – QB Gunner Stockton ($6,800) Just two QBs scored over 20 fantasy points against Notre Dame this season, because the Irish secondary is elite, ranked No. 1 in the country in pass D success rate. One of those two QBs was a triple-option quarterback, which might be closer to what we see from Stockton on Wednesday because of his running ability. Either way…fade in this spot.
Bargain Bin – RB Nate Frazier ($4,500) Going to imagine it will be a run-heavy script for the Dawgs on Wednesday, and without both Roderick Robinson and Branson Robinson available, the only other legitimate option to run the ball behind Etienne will be Frazier. I’m more interested in Frazier than one of the UGA pass-catchers here with the QB situation.
Pivot Play – WR Arian Smith ($5,100) Smith led the Dawgs with eight targets in the SEC championship vs. Texas, finishing with five receptions. Of the five highest scoring receivers to face this Notre Dame secondary in 2024, four of which played outside where Smith lines up. UGA will not be dinking and dunking down the field against Notre Dame and will need some chunk plays – Smith leads the team with a 12.2 aDOT.
Best of the Rest – WRs and TEs. Wish I had the bandwidth for some comprehensive breakdown here of what UGA plans to do with its wide receivers and tight ends against this Notre Dame secondary. What we do know is that Georgia heads into this matchup with a backup quarterback and no difference maker at either position. The Irish also allowed a combined 19.4 FPPG to wide receivers and 4.3 FPPG to tight ends during the regular season. You *really* don’t need to have a UGA pass catcher in any lineups.
Injury Notes – RB Roderick Robinson (out), RB Branson Robinson (out)
Mike’s Core Four:
- QB Dillon Gabriel, Oregon
- RB Trevor Etienne, Georgia
- QB Will Howard, Ohio State
- WR Tez Johnson, Oregon
