Austin Peay vs. Western Kentucky
Point-Spread: n/a
O/U Total: n/a
Weather: 83 degrees / 19% rain / 5 mph winds
WKU:
Top Play(s) – QB Austin Reed ($9,000) Sits third in projections behind Logan Bonner and Jordan Travis, but easily the player with the best opportunity to break the slate. For DFS players that are just jumping into CFB in late August, Western Kentucky will be attempting to replicate last year’s successes despite losing OC Zach Kittley to Texas Tech, as they promoted within to Ben Arbuckle who will now call the plays. Averaged 50.9 pass attempts per game in 2021 and were second nationally in neutral game script pass play rate. With the chance that Reed is Bailey Zappe reincarnated, I’ll be overweight on Western Kentucky players in my lineups.
Fade – RB Kye Robichaux ($7,000) X him out of your player queue. WKU averaged the second-fewest rushing attempts per game in college football last season, and there is no certainty Robichaux is even the starter with veteran Jakairi Moses still in the mix.
Bargain Bin – WR Dalvin Smith ($3,500) was a standout during spring camp and is in the mix to start outside opposite Daewood Davis. Spent time at tight end last season, catching five touchdown passes, but has converted to wide receiver which should boost his value. Hoping an official depth chart comes out before gameday as he’s battling Western Michigan transfer Jaylen Hall for a starting job, and DK lists Smith as $3,100 cheaper.
Pivot Play – WR Michael Mathison $5,600) Corley is likely the top target in this offense but haven’t heard his name much in preseason reports. Could be nothing, could be something. Akron transfer Michael Mathison is my projected WR3 at the moment, assuming the role that Corley had a year ago in which he posted 73 receptions on 103 targets. 80% of Mathison’s snaps last season with the Zips came in the slot.
Best of the Rest – Remember how profitable Jerreth Sterns and Mitchell Tinsley were last year, combining for 237 receptions and 31 touchdowns. Unreasonable to expect the same output, but if all goes to plan, WR Malachi Corley ($7,600) and WR Daewood Davis ($4,800) are next in line to assume those mantles. Davis is likely to be one of the highest-owned players on the slate as he’s mispriced at current salary.
Injury Notes – Joshua Simon ($5,800) is listed as out on DK but should be ready to roll Saturday. Was seen in a recent video of practice catching passes from Austin Reed. Caught two touchdowns on three receptions in last year’s opener before suffering a season-ending injury. Will be a wildcard in 2022 as this system doesn’t utilize the position much outside the red-zone.
Nebraska vs. Northwestern
Point-Spread: Neb -13
O/U Total: 50.5
Weather: 62 degrees / 20% rain / 0 mph winds
Nebraska:
Top Play(s) – WR Trey Palmer ($6,200) Initially hesitant about Palmer at the onset of the offseason given how he produced next to nothing during his time at LSU, but all reports indicate he’s separated himself during fall camp as the clear-cut top receiver for the Cornhuskers. Playing in the slot under offensive coordinator Mark Whipple has been a coveted role in recent years with the successes of Jordan Addison, Maurice Ffrench and Andy Isabella – averaging 80 receptions and 117.5 targets over the last six seasons.
Fade – RBs Full on committee expected at running back, and that aligns with Whipple’s normal philosophy as RB1 has averaged just 29.7 market share of the backfield in the last three years. JUCO transfer Anthony Grant ($6,700) will get the starting nod, but expect Rahmir Johnson ($5,400), Gabe Ervin Jr. ($4,900) and Jaquez Yant ($3,900) to all see reps on Saturday.
Bargain Bin – WR Marcus Washington ($3,800) We know Palmer is slated to start in the slot, but the two outside spots appear to be up for grabs between 5-6 players at this point. Texas transfer Marcus Washington is the likeliest candidate to snag one of the starting jobs. Projections have a steep drop off from Palmer -> Washington, and an even bigger decline to the next best receiver for the Cornhuskers.
Pivot Play – RB Rahmir Johnson ($5,400) Know that we stated to avoid the RBs above, but Johnson is also getting looks in the slot with the lack of depth at receiver. Whipple actually compared Johnson to Brian Westbrook with the versatility he brings to the table and wants to be designated as a “wide back.” 13-15 touches is not out of the realm of possibilities.
Best of the Rest – QB Casey Thompson ($7,200) is fourth among quarterbacks in this slate according to projections, but very moderately priced to where we could upgrade another spot in the lineup. Implied total of nearly 32 points for the Cornhuskers against a Northwestern defense that returns just 58% of last year’s defensive production works in favor of Thompson. His value should also get an upgrade under Whipple who’s QB1s have averaged 25.6 FPPG over the last four seasons.
Injury Notes – Gabe Ervin sat out a few days of practice as his knee was flaring up, but had been impressing coaches prior to that. Probably third in line in the RB pecking order as it is.
NW:
Top Play(s) – RB Evan Hull ($6,300) No official depth chart as of Tuesday writing this, but the expectation is that Hull gets the first carry on Saturday after leading the team in rushing in 2021 with 1,009 yard and seven touchdowns. Hull is also one of the premier pass-catching runners in the conference with 33 receptions on 42 targets and just one drop. Normally a team that has leaned on one running back in the past, Hull will share duties this year with Cam Porter who returns from injury, but Hull will get the first reps with the starting offense. NW’s offensive line should be one of the better groups in the B1G, featuring a potential All-American at left tackle.
Fade – Quarterbacks. We don’t know exactly who the starter is, and it won’t matter. Northwestern, as a team, hasn’t averaged more than 200 yards per game passing since 2018.
Bargain Bin – WR Bryce Kirtz ($4,500) Northwestern information is damn near impossible to come by at any point during the year, so we’re left in the dark in terms of a depth chart or injury information. Kirtz, a former 3-star recruit, should slide in as the WR2 role, and was possibly on his way to a breakout last year before injury cut his season short. Kirtz posted 19 receptions on 34 targets in the first five games.
Pivot Play – WR Malik Washington ($5,300) Yes, the NW passing game has been atrocious of late, but I believe they do have a solidified WR1 in Washington who finished second on the team with 43 receptions on 61 targets a year ago. The only other returning player that had more than 20 catches in 2021 is Hull, so there aren’t many other established pass-catchers in the passing game.
Best of the Rest – n/a
Injury Notes – RB Cam Porter ($5,700) is healthy after missing last season with a leg injury, as HC Pat Fitzgerald stated he “looks like his old self.”
Idaho State vs. UNLV
Point-Spread: n/a
O/U Total: n/a
Weather: 94 degrees / 33% rain / 5 mph winds
UNLV:
Top Play(s) – RB Aidan Robbins ($3,300) Will almost certainly be the highest-owned player on the slate due to pricing and his standing as the RB1 on the UNLV depth chart. The former Louisville transfer was a summer arrival and has already ascended to the starting role which likely speaks to how well he performed in camp above the others. Biggest reason why we’re on Robbins – this coaching staff loves feeding their starting running back. The RB1 under Marcus Arroyo averages 46.4% volume share over the last four seasons.
Fade – QB Doug Brumfield ($7,400) DK is pricing Brumfield as if they know he’ll be the first guy trotting out on Saturday, but Arroyo stated that Harrison Bailey ($4,500) is continuing to share reps with the 1’s in practice currently. The Rebels should be vastly improved in the passing game in 2022, but finished 8th in the MWC last season, throwing more interceptions as a team than touchdowns. I’m fine fading this situation unless we get clarity on it being one quarterback throughout the week.
Bargain Bin – WR Jeff Weimer ($4,400) JUCO transfer that caught 77 passes for 1,268 yards and 17 touchdowns last season. Received praise from the coaching staff with regards to his work ethic and is listed as a starter on the initial depth chart. Did receive a few days off of practice in the last week or so, so we’ll need to ensure he’s available on Saturday.
Pivot Play – WR Kyle Williams ($6,300) Will likely be ignored considering how poorly this passing offense performed a year ago, but Williams averaged 7.2 targets per game in 2021 and 2.21 yards per route run which was the best mark on the team.
Best of the Rest – WR Ricky White ($5,100) is the only other playable option for the Rebels as our projected WR2 behind Williams. White doesn’t have a lengthy resume, but his claim to fame is the 8-196-1 performance he had on the road at Michigan in 2020. Brings a speed element to the UNLV wide receiver room that the others lack.
Injury Notes – n/a
Wyoming vs. Illinois
Point-Spread: Illinois -10.5
O/U Total: 43.5
Weather: 95 degrees / 10% rain / 12 mph winds
Wyoming:
Top Play(s) – RB Titus Swen ($6,000) There is a reason Xzavian Valladay left town, he was about to lose his job to a better player. As a team, the Cowboys averaged 41.5 carries per game in 2021 with 340+ attempts going to Valladay/Swen. And now we’re left with only Swen and no clear-cut backup behind him. Even in a negative game script situation as a double-digit dog, 20 rushing attempts for Swen on Saturday is the expectation.
Fade – QB Andrew Peasley ($5,200) Former Wyoming QB Levi Williams, now a backup at Utah State, has a higher salary than Peasley. Kinda tells you all you need to know, right? Wyoming was 120th in neutral game script pass rate last season, and they no longer have a topflight receiver anymore in Isaiah Neyor. Not expecting much from the Wyoming passing game in 2022.
Bargain Bin – TE Treyton Welch ($4,200) Finished fourth on the team with 19 receptions on 34 targets in 2021. Will be the top check-down option for Peasley in the passing game at just 0.74 yards per route run.
Pivot Play – WR Joshua Cobbs ($5,400) Not playing any Wyoming receiver, but if I was to take a shot, it would be Cobbs who most resembles Neyor at 6-foot-4, 204 pounds. 17 of his 38 targets last season came in the final three games alone.
Best of the Rest – WR Wyatt Wieland ($4,300) Someone else has to catch passes, right? Wieland is listed as a starter alongside Cobbs on the initial depth chart. Grasping at straws, though, as the WR2 under Craig Bohl averages just 4.1 targets per game over the last four years.
Injury Notes – WR Gunner Gentry ($3,200) is out for the season.
Illinois:
Top Play(s) – RB Chase Brown ($7,900) Any Bret Bielema led team wants to run the football, and he’s got one of the premier backfields in the Big Ten, led by an all-conference third-teamer from a year ago in Brown. Good matchup against a Wyoming defense that brings back just 37 percent of their returning defensive production from last season – 129th in the country. The Illini should also be much better this year on the offensive front where the average size of a starting linemen is 6-foot-6, 316 pounds.
Fade – QB Tommy DeVito ($7,100) The staff has yet to announce a starter at quarterback, but all signs pointing in favor of former Syracuse transfer Tommy DeVito. From a physical standpoint, DeVito is an upgrade from last year’s debacle with a big arm and can scoot when called upon. Barry Lunney Jr’s UTSA offenses only averaged 31 pass attempts per game the last two years with the Roadrunners. We’re banking on the game script featuring the run game as a 10.5-point favorite.
Bargain Bin – RB Josh McCray ($5,100) Chase Brown is the clear-cut starter here, but McCray is more of a 1B than a backup, rushing for 549 yards as a true freshman. Lunney leaned heavily on Sincere McCormick at UTSA, giving his starter 53% of the volume share in the backfield, compared to just 11% for the backup, but that distribution is expected to change with the Illini. Double-digit carries for McCray on Saturday is the expectation.
Pivot Play – WR Isaiah Williams ($7,300) Arguably been the Illini’s best offensive player in fall camp, and can score you points in a multitude of ways as a former quarterback that could be utilized as a passer or in wildcat situations. Williams was the clear alpha last season, accounting for 26% of the team target share, and that could rise in 2022 with new offensive coordinator Barry Lunney Jr. (formerly of UTSA) who’s expected to diversify the offense. Illinois attempted just 26.9 pass attempts per game in 2021 – 103rd in the country – so Williams is likely to be under-owned at his pricing.
Best of the Rest – WR Casey Washington ($5,200) and WR Pat Bryant ($4,000) are the likely starters outside of Williams at receiver, with the former being the second-best option with 21 receptions on 47 targets a year ago. Former Miami transfer WR Brian Hightower ($3,200) is back in the fold after not playing since 2020. Bielema suggested there could be shakeups on the depth chart at the position, so don’t be shocked if Hightower ends up as a starter.
Injury Notes – n/a
Connecticut vs. Utah State
Point-Spread: USU – 27.5
O/U Total: 59.5
Weather: 89 degrees / 5% rain / 14 mph winds
UConn:
Top Play(s) – WR Keelan Marion ($4,600) With Cameron Ross out for the season, Marion likely steps up into the WR1 role following a strong freshman campaign with 28 receptions on a team-high 65 targets. New offensive coordinator Nick Charlton has a strong track record of producing high-end wide receiver production, having coached five of the top 20 all-time wide receivers at the University of Maine. His WR1s in 2019-20 averaged 20 FPPG.
Fade – Connecticut? Everyone is priced appropriately, but the 16.5 implied team total means we don’t have to jam any Huskies in our lineups, and probably wise to avoid altogether.
Bargain Bin – WR Aaron Turner ($3,100) UConn’s starting slot receiver was forced into action as a freshman, along with Marion, and surpassed expectations as he compiled 33 receptions on 56 targets which was second on the team. Better on DK rather than FanDuel in a full point PPR setting as Turner averaged just 7.0 yards per catch and 0.79 yards per routes run.
Pivot Play – RB Nathan Carter ($5,600) Surprised to see Carter not only listed on the second line of the depth chart, but not even in an OR situation either, despite leading the team in rushing a year ago. Expectation is that this will be a split backfield between the two where the RB2 has accounted for 27.9% of the volume share in Charlton’s system the last four seasons. Carter is also the superior pass-catcher between he and starter Robert Burns.
Best of the Rest – RB Robert Burns ($3,000) and his min pricing will get some attention after being listed atop the depth chart at running back. Connecticut listed just seven offensive linemen on the team depth chart and have had some injuries up front, so how effectively they can block Utah State is questionable. Charlton’s RB1 averaged just 10.7 FPPG over the last four seasons at Maine with 36% volume share. Not great. WR Kevens Clercius ($3,200) is yet another rising sophomore at receiver that had a promising debut with 20 receptions and three touchdowns as a FR.
Injury Notes – WR Cam Ross ($3,800) is out for the season.
Utah St:
Top Play(s) – QB Logan Bonner ($8,600) Assuming pregame reports give notification that Bonner is 100 percent healthy, he’s our highest projected player of the entire slate at 331 passing yards and 3.5 touchdowns. Even without his top three WRs from a year ago, the praise has been constant about Utah State’s pass-catchers this offseason and could go 5-6 deep at the position. If the possible blowout concerns you as a near four-touchdown favorite, let me remind you that Blake Anderson’s offense was 27th in pass attempts per game in 2021 and 39th in neutral game script pass rate.
Fade – RB Calvin Tyler ($8,100) Arguably the highest-floor of any player on the slate given the matchup and solidified role as the team’s RB1. But with how much Utah State throws the football, even as a favorite, Tyler likely doesn’t offer a ton of upside. Averaged 13.1 FPPG last year but scored 20 or more fantasy points just twice all year. Rather spend down on other RB options.
Bargain Bin – WR Kyle Van Leeuwen ($4,200) We’re likely to see a rotation at the slot position, but from all reports, Van Leeuwen will get the first crack at replacing last year’s starter Brandon Bowling who posted 56 receptions and 10 touchdowns. Even the third option in this offensive scheme has averaged nearly 18 percent target share over the last three years, so good chance KVL can pay off his salary.
Pivot Play – WR Justin McGriff ($6,800) McGriff remains our projected WR2 currently behind Brian Cobbs, but the situation is fluid as an alpha has not emerged (at least publicly) to this point in the Utah State receiver room based on preseason reports. Cobbs will likely see the higher ownership percentage in the slate with his moderate salary, making the 6-foot-6 McGriff a possible pivot in GPPs as he could very well end up as the WR1 for the Aggies in 2022.
Best of the Rest – Much has been made this offseason about the surplus of depth at WR for Utah State, and there is a chance we don’t have a target hog as we did a year ago with Deven Thompkins. In this potential blowout situation, expect to see a good bit of WR NyNy Davis ($3,900), WR Terrell Vaughn ($3,500) and former Alabama transfer WR Xavier Williams ($5,000). All three have had big scrimmage performances at one point or another this offseason.
Injury Notes – Just make sure Logan Bonner is 100 percent healthy pregame. Tore his ACL in the bowl game last season and has seen limited reps in camp. All signs point to him being full-go for the opener.
Duquesne vs. Florida State
Point-Spread: n/a
O/U Total: n/a
Weather: 86 degrees / 91% rain / 9 mph winds
FSU:
Top Play(s) – Jordan Travis ($8,800) Travis was the only rosterable Florida State player a year ago, and we’re not expecting much deviation in 2022. Guess how many times a Florida State player outside of Travis scored 20 fantasy points or more last season? Twice, and that player has since graduated. The junior QB settled into the starting role in the back half of last year, averaging over 27 FPPG in the last seven weeks.
Fade – Mycah Pittman ($7,500) Absolutely ridiculous pricing and should be immediately eliminated from your player queue of potential options. No FSU receiver has accounted for more than 16 percent target share the last two seasons.
Bargain Bin – Johnny Wilson ($4,100) Despite sitting in an OR situation on the depth chart, the former Arizona State transfer has garnered plenty of praise over the last few weeks. His inconsistencies are why the former 4-star prospect transferred out of Arizona State, but according to FSU beat writers, his good days in practice are “special.” At 6-foot-7, Wilson can be a matchup nightmare in the red-zone and will have a great chance at finding paydirt vs. an inferior opponent. FWIW, haven’t really heard a peep about Malik McClain during camp, the player he’s locked with on the depth chart.
Pivot Play – $6k+ for both Trey Benson ($6,500) and Treshaun Ward ($6,100) in a backfield that is likely split to start the season seems absurd, but the running game has been outstanding for FSU in fall camp. The Seminoles return four starters along the OL that ranked 27th in line yards created. Good chance both players find the end-zone against an inferior opponent Saturday, but will see low ownership because of their pricing.
Best of the Rest – Ontaria Wilson ($4,900) is the likely WR1 for the Seminoles and should have the most interest among FSU pass-catchers. While not listed on the depth chart, Jak’hi Douglas ($4,600) is the longshot play as a WR-RB hybrid player. Norvell has had success in the past with such types (Tony Pollard / Antonio Gibson).
Injury Notes – Camren McDonald ($4,000) remains listed as TE1 currently on the depth chart, and may play Saturday, but has missed a portion of camp with turf toe. Wyatt Rector ($3,600) would start should McDonald not be active.
FCS Options:
The slate provides us four high-end options at QB to where we don’t need to dive into any FCS options. Former Western Kentucky transfer Josh Samuel ($5,200) will start at running back for Austin Peay, but will be running behind an offensive line that lost all five starters from a year ago from what I can see. Two options at WR for Austin Peay with WR1 Drae McCray ($4,700) and Miami (Ohio) transfer James Burns ($3,100). McCray accounted for 22% of the team target share in 2021, finishing with 53 receptions and seven touchdowns. Austin Peay needs to replace 193 vacated targets with their WR1, WR3 and WR4 having all graduated from last season, so McCray will be plenty viable at his pricing. The Governors averaged 75.6 plays per game last season which would’ve put them in the top 10 nationally at the FBS level in pace.
