Charlotte vs. Florida Atlantic
Point-Spread: FAU -7.5
O/U Total: 59.5
Weather: 88 degrees / 91% rain / 10 mph winds
Charlotte:
Top Play(s) – WR Grant Dubose ($6,800) Victor Tucker is the name that most recognize as he’s been with Charlotte for four years, but DuBose took over as the team’s WR1 after September last season, averaging 8.5 targets per game with a team-high 61 receptions. Dubose’s aDOT (13.6) and yards per route run (2.34) are both substantially higher than Tucker as well.
Fade – Shadrick Byrd ($5,800) The former Iowa transfer scored 13 or more fantasy points all of twice last year as this will be another split backfield with veteran Calvin Camp and any other younger running back that emerges from the pack. RB1 volume share last season was 30.4%, with the RB2 getting 26.5%…not to mention whatever carries Chris Reynolds gets in the running game as well.
Bargain Bin – WR Elijah Spencer ($3,700) Argument to be made that Victor Tucker is the third-most talented receiver Charlotte has been Dubose and Spencer who came on late in the year with 16 of his 28 receptions coming in the final four games. Tied for a team high with six receiving touchdowns and finished second with a 15.0 aDOT.
Pivot Play – QB Chris Reynolds ($8,000) Big fan of the Charlotte offense coming into this season as a whole, as the 49ers return 83 percent of its offensive production from last year, along with a three-year starter now at QB in Reynolds. We’re listing Reynolds as a pivot play because he’s got the exact same projection as the quarterback across from him in N’Kosi Perry who is also $900 cheaper. Think this matchup sets up well for Reynolds who has every core pieces returning along with him at WR, RB and offensive line, and takes on an FAU defense that returns just 51% of their defensive production from a year ago.
Best of the Rest – RB Calvin Camp ($4,200) nabbed 26.5% market share last season and is significantly cheaper than Byrd. Also running behind a veteran offensive line that returns four starters.
Injury Notes – TE Taylor Thompson ($3,700) Listed as questionable on DraftKings but sits atop the game week depth chart at tight end. Will have to double check his status prior to game time. Averaged 3.4 targets per game in 2021.
Florida Atlantic:
Top Play(s) – QB N’Kosi Perry ($7,100) This was going to be another player on FAU until the depth chart came out, leaving a bunch of question marks at running back and receiver. His numbers did tail off in the second half of the year, but Perry averaged 20.9 FPPG in 2021, with five performances of 24 fantasy points or more. Think there is a good chance those numbers rise this year with Brent Dearmon as OC. 70.8 plays per game the last two seasons as an OC for Kansas and Middle Tennessee which is top 50 nationally, and has been known to give his quarterbacks plenty of running opportunities at previous stops during his college career – 118 QB rush attempts per season at Arkansas Tech.
Fade – RB Johnny Ford ($7,300) Explosive player that will be running behind an experienced offensive line with four starters but was listed as a backup on the depth chart. Might be due to the spring suspension for academics, but tough to pay up to his pricing. We’re expecting a full-fledged RBBC here under Dearmon who hasn’t had a running back account for more than 18 percent volume share in the last two seasons.
Bargain Bin – RB Larry McCammon ($3,400) That leads into McCammon who is listed on the top line on the depth chart, and sure to see 10+ carries. More than worthwhile at his pricing despite our expectation of an RBBC, along with Ford and Nebraska transfer RB Marvin Scott ($5,100). FAU should have success running the ball vs. what was the 13th ranked run defense in C-USA a year ago where the 49ers allowed 5.34 YPC.
Pivot Play – WR LaJohntay Wester ($6,300) The depth chart did come as a surprise when Wester was listed as a backup, but I’ve been following practice reports for much of fall camp and hadn’t read any insinuation that Wester wasn’t one of the top two targets on offense. Maybe this WR Tony Johnson ($3,000), whom I’ve never heard of, is really talented? Depth charts can always be taken with some grain of salt, and I think this is a situation where we buy the dip, because Wester’s ownership percentages will assuredly tumble.
Best of the Rest – WR Je’Quan Burton ($5,500) was the other receiver consistently mentioned in fall camp reports as one of the go-to targets in the offense along with Wester. Came on strong late in the year with 25 targets in the final four games and had a team-high 18.3 aDOT as the primary deep threat. “IF,” and I stress if, Wester is lower on the depth chart, Burton should be the biggest beneficiary.
Injury Notes – n/a
Florida A&M vs. North Carolina
Point-Spread: UNC -34.5
O/U Total: 55.5
Weather: 70 degrees / 14% rain / 7 mph winds
North Carolina:
Top Play(s) – WR Josh Downs ($8,500) Blowout potential is the only concern for Downs against an FCS opponent. Hypothetically, one would think that UNC will scheme up some easy throws with a new starting quarterback to their best player in Downs to gain confidence and establish rapport. Looking back to last year, Downs posted 8-89-0 on 11 targets vs. Wofford late in the year. UNC also played Georgia State early in the year in a 59-17 blowout where Downs had 8-73-1 on 11 targets. Do we have a template of what to expect on Saturday?
Fade – D.J. Jones ($6,400) Undoubtedly a gamble here as Jones steps into the RB1 spot with British Brooks now out for the year, but our view of Jones is simply a placeholder. The two FR running backs, who we’ll speak about in a bit, are far better values here at their current pricing and have been making mass waves during camp.
Bargain Bin – RB Omarion Hampton ($3,000) and RB George Pettaway ($3,000) will be all over our lineups Saturday night as arguably the two most talented options in the UNC backfield. And this was the case even prior to the British Brooks injury, as some were projecting the FR duo to take over the bulk of the carries at some point. Think Javonte Williams / Michael Carter here with Hampton being the hammer at 215 pounds, where Pettaway is the superior pass-catcher of the two, posting 30 receptions and six touchdowns as a high school senior.
Pivot Play – QB Drake Maye ($7,400) HC Mack Brown has been adamant all offseason that the race between Maye and now backup Jacolby Criswell was neck and neck all the way until a starter was named. Brown has also stated that both quarterbacks will play on Saturday and doesn’t sound like just mop-up duty either. It will be entirely dependent on how Maye performs and will have the quick hook if the first few drives stall. Does this force players to shy away from rostering Maye? I suppose this would make QB Jacolby Criswell ($6,900) the ultimate pivot, but too risky for my taste.
Best of the Rest – Lots of options here. TE Bryson Nesbit ($3,000) has been compared to former UNC great Eric Ebron and will get reps at both tight end and wide receiver as a hybrid pass-catcher. The Heels have another stud freshman in WR Andre Greene Jr. ($3,000) who nabbed a starting job right out of the gate. Downs accounted for 40.4% of the target share for UNC last year, which is expected to decline slightly now with an emerging talent alongside him in the freshman.
Injury Notes – WR Antoine Green ($5,700) is expected to miss 6-10 weeks with an upper body injury.
Florida A&M:
Implied total of 10.5 so we really don’t have to pay much attention here. Ran 69 (nice) plays per game in 2021 which would put them around 60th in the country at the FBS level. All three of their top targets return from last season, including WR Xavier Smith ($3,800) who led all wideouts with 103 targets, but also led with nine drops. WR Jah’Marae Sheread ($6,000), a former Texas State transfer, did lead the team with nine receiving touchdowns despite an aDOT of just 6.7 yards. He’s priced out at $6k.
North Texas vs. UTEP
Point-Spread: UNT -1.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Weather: 86 degrees / 14% rain / 20 mph winds
North Texas:
Top Play(s) – n/a. Cop out answer, but I will be underweight on most North Texas players for Saturday night as the depth chart feels very unsettled coming out of fall ball. Implied total of 26.5 means we’ll see offense out of the Mean Green, but this UTEP defense is no slouch (for C-USA standards), finishing fifth in the conference in total defense and return nearly 80% of their defensive production from 2021.
Fade – RB Isaiah Johnson ($5,300) This is an easy one. Johnson is, at best, third on the depth chart, yet priced as the top running back? More on the UNT running backs below.
Bargain Bin – WR Latrell Neville ($3,000) and WR Jay Maclin ($4,200) We’re fading Austin Aune but do believe this will be a far better passing attack than a year ago, much of which due to a substantially improved WR corps featuring this pair of P5 transfers. These are long-shot plays admittedly, but another situation where you must take the depth chart with a grain of salt. Neville (Nebraska) and Maclin (Missouri) were mentioned repeatedly in practice recaps over the likes of some names listed ahead of them on the published depth chart.
Pivot Play – RB Oscar Adaway ($4,700) Ragsdale is likely to see the highest ownership of the North Texas running backs given his “RB1” designation (if you want to call it that) on the team depth chart and pricing on DK. When healthy, and it sounds like he is, Adaway is the best running back on the team. From all accounts, he proved as much during fall camp. FWIW, we do see both Adaway and Ragsdale being productive regardless of order. North Texas running backs scored the fifth most fantasy points in the country in 2021 and will run behind an OL that was 29th in Line Yards with four starters back.
Best of the Rest – QB Austin Aune ($6,500) is a likely fade for me, but did enough during fall camp to win the starting job over Grant Gunnell. In scrimmages/practice, he completed 60% of his passes which is nine points higher than a year ago. Aune will benefit from a healthier WR group that gets back Jyaire Shorter ($3,400) and Tommy Bush ($5,200), along with the return of WR1 Roderic Burns ($6,600). As I alluded to above, North Texas is expected to utilize their increased depth at the position in 2022. That means two things: (1) Burns won’t be the target hog he was a year ago, and (2) I’m letting things settled before confidently rostering any UNT receiver.
Injury Notes – If plan on rostering one of Adaway / Shorter / Bush, double check to make sure their 100% full-go pregame. We’ll provide updates in the Discord.
UTEP:
Top Play(s) – WR Tyrin Smith ($6,100) With Justin Garrett graduating and Jacob Cowing transferring to Arizona, exactly 200 targets have been vacated. Our focus is on former JUCO transfer Tyrin Smith, who finished third on the team with 33 receptions on 52 targets, including 18 targets over the final three weeks of the 2021 season. Smith’s 17.3 YPC average was second on the team only to Cowing, and his positional flexibility is intriguing, as the 5-foot-10 junior spent almost equal time both in the slot and on the boundary.
Fade – QB Gavin Hardison ($6,400) Week 0 presents those who follow CFF with an opportunity to find the edge of those who are just jumping in for CFB DFS. And for that reason, I’ll be spending up at quarterback in both slates and find the gems at the skill positions. No reason to roster Hardison with his 15-point projection at this price. Scored 25 or more fantasy points just one time last season so there is almost zero upside. North Texas brings back most of its starting secondary.
Bargain Bin – WR Kelly Akharaiyi ($4,100) The 6-foot-1 JUCO transfer has been making waves all summer, and will likely step in as the Robin to Tyrin Smith’s Batman. Similar situation to what we had last year with Jacob Cowing and Justin Garrett, which proved to be plenty productive. Garrett, even as the secondary option, finished with 50 receptions on 89 targets. Akharaiyi runs a reported 4.4 40-yard dash, with one UTEP site stating they wouldn’t be surprised if he ended the year in the No. 1 role.
Pivot Play – We’re going to see a split backfield once again with the Miners as Ronald Awatt ($5,500) and Deion Hankins ($4,900) share duties, combining for nearly 60% of the market share a year ago. Will likely result in folks shying away from this backfield given the limited upside, but should find some success against this UNT front that lost every starter on the defensive line. UTEP gets three starters back on the OL.
Best of the Rest – n/a Majority of the UTEP’s production this season will come from the five players listed above.
Injury Notes – n/a
Nevada vs. New Mexico State
Point-Spread: Nevada -8.5
O/U Total: 50.5
Weather: 75 degrees / 14% rain / 4 mph winds
Nevada:
Top Play(s) – RB Toa Taua ($7,600) Really the only known commodity on the Nevada offense headed into 2022 on a team that returns just 21% of the offensive production from last year, most of which ending up at Colorado State during the coaching change. We also have a first-time play-caller that does not have a track record of any historical offensive trends to lean on here. I do like Taua better as a cash game play because of his high floor but might steer clear in GPPs with the limited upside. Nevada will be playing with five new starters along the offensive line as they lost their all-conference tackle to a season-ending injury in fall camp.
Fade – QBs. I have a personal opinion of who Nevada should trot out at quarterback – that being Oklahoma State transfer Shane Illingsworth – but have a feeling it will be holdover Nate Cox getting the nod. That ambiguity of who the starter will be, combined with the fact this offense could be downright putrid, has me fading the position entirely. Our second lowest QB projection on the slate.
Bargain Bin – TE Cooper Shults No, we don’t have a track record to bank on with new offensive coordinator Derek Sage, but he does come over from one of the most profitable systems for TE play, spending the last four years with Chip Kelly at UCLA. TE1 averaged 11.7 FPPG the last four seasons on around five targets per game. Shults, an Oregon transfer, has great size at 6-foot-6 and sounds like they’ll utilize him a bit like Greg Dulcich with the Bruins where he’ll get red-zone fades and shift outside to receiver.
Pivot Play – WR Jamaal Bell ($6,200) I know we poo-pooed the quarterback situation, but do have some interest in Bell who could wind up as the team’s alpha in 2022 as the Wolfpack lost 81% of their receiving production from last year. Against Western Michigan in the bowl game, Bell was that alpha with 7-75-1 on a team high nine targets. No other receiver had more than two targets.
Best of the Rest – RB Devonte Lee ($3,400) Last three seasons, Toa Taua accounted for 46% of Nevada’s rushing touchdowns. Not far behind is Lee who had 36%. Realistic possibility Lee vultures a TD or two Saturday. Jamaal Bell is the WR1, but Arizona transfer Brian Casteel ($4,900) will play an integral role in the offense this season. Nevada needs pass-catchers in the worst way, and Casteel has 90 career receptions in four years.
Injury Notes – n/a
New Mexico State:
Top Play(s) – RB Jamoni Jones ($3,000) Listed at min pricing despite being the top man on the totem pole on the depth chart. A big bruising JUCO transfer at 6-foot-2, 225 pounds, Jones rushed for 487 yards and 11 touchdowns for Northeastern Oklahoma A&M, with four multi-touchdown performances. Sounds like a primary red-zone option to me. New offensive coordinator Timothy Beck ran the ball 60% of the time back at Pittsburgh State.
Fade – QBs. We do have a depth chart with freshman Diego Pavia ($5,500) listed in an OR situation with Gavin Frakes ($5,000). HC Jerry Kill said this week there is no starter at the moment and we could see both play Saturday. Given this is a run-oriented offense to begin with, I’ll be fading this OR situation between two players that have zero career starts at the FBS level.
Bargain Bin – WR Kordell David ($3,800) David was a spring camp standout from all reports, garnering the description “freak of nature” by projected starting QB Diego Pavia. At 6-foot-3, 195 pounds, David should be a weapon in the red-zone as he caught seven touchdowns last season at Trinity Valley C.C. I know they’re listed on the same line on the depth chart, but I suspect David and the guy listed below to be the team’s top two receivers in 2022.
Pivot Play – WR Dominic Gicinto ($5,200) Recent fall camp practice report listed Gicinto as having the best offensive player in a team scrimmage. The former Missouri transfer is likely to see very little ownership giving his pricing and his standing on the depth chart behind JUCO transfer Kordell David. Gicinto only played in two games last year before suffering a season-ending injury but averaged nine targets per with nine receptions.
Best of the Rest – WR Jordin Parker ($3,000) will start in the slot, but is a former walk-on and may share duties with Gicinto. Desperation play. Sounds as though Kill and Beck want to utilize multiple RBs this season, so expect former TCU transfer RB Ahmonte Watkins ($4,100) the lightning to Jones’ thunder. Four offensive linemen who logged at least 300 snaps in 2021 are back, so the running game could be a strength to start the year.
Injury Notes – n/a
Vanderbilt vs. Hawaii
Point-Spread: Vandy -8.5
O/U Total: 53.5
Weather: 79 degrees / 0% rain / 10 mph winds
Vanderbilt:
Top Play(s) – QB Mike Wright ($6,500) All hail dual threats in any college fantasy format and we have one here in Wright who rushed for 30 or more yards in five contests last year, including 152 yards on 14 carries vs. Missouri. Much to be desired as a passer, but won’t matter facing a Hawaii defense that is essentially turning over its entire defensive roster with just 19% returning production according to CFBWinningEdge.
Fade – RB Ray Davis ($6,200) Wouldn’t eliminate Davis from the player pool entirely, but HC Clark Lea said he envisions four running backs earning significant carries this season, along with Rocko Griffin, Patrick Smith and one of their true freshmen. Add in the carries Mike Wright will accumulate, and we could see a full-on committee approach.
Bargain Bin – WR Jayden McGowan ($3,000) One name that caught our eye in preseason research is 5-foot-8 slot receiver Jayden McGowan. Size is a concern at 177 pounds, but he is considered one of the fastest players on the team and is being projected by some to start inside ahead of veteran Devin Boddie. Offensive coordinator Joey Lynch loves getting his slot receiver the ball, as his time at Ball State with Justin Hall proves.
Pivot Play – WR Will Sheppard ($6,400) Tough to invest in a receiver given potential game script of Vandy running it down Hawaii’s throats, but Will Sheppard is the bonafide WR1 for Vandy, finishing the year with 43 receptions on 83 targets. Numbers tailed off once into SEC play, but Sheppard averaged 11.75 targets per game in the non-conference schedule a year ago.
Best of the Rest – RB Patrick Smith ($3,500) likely gets some run as the RB2 in what “could” be a blowout situation. Lea’s comments that we referenced above allude to multiple running backs get playing time. WR Quincy Skinner ($3,000) has locked down the WR3 job and is min priced. WR3 for Vanderbilt averaged just 6.2 FPPG last year but did have 55 targets.
Injury Notes – n/a
Hawaii:
Top Play(s) – WR Zion Bowens ($5,800) Safe to say my weekend hinges on Bowens from both a DFS and player prop standpoint. The clear-cut WR1 for Hawaii that is moving back to the Air Raid / Run-and-Shoot under new head coach Timmy Chang and OC Ian Shoemaker. WR1 averages in the last eight years of this system – 61 receptions, 952 yards and seven scores. Hawaii could absolutely stink in 2022, but this is an offense that will average 40+ pass attempts per, which will benefit Bowens regardless of the record.
Fade – n/a. I think the core four pieces, which we’ll get to in a bit, are all in play here.
Bargain Bin – WR Jonah Panoke ($4,200) The Warriors return just 28% of their receiving production from a year ago, and there is a ton of uncertainty beyond Bowens. Panoke is the likeliest candidate to step into the WR2 role, and has been productive when healthy. Again, high-volume passing offense and favorable game script. WR2 averages in this system over eight years – 43 receptions, 639 yards and five touchdowns.
Pivot Play – QB Brayden Schager ($7,000) Wouldn’t necessarily consider Schager a pivot play, but can see people staying away because of the uncertainty of who’s the starter currently. All indications point to Schager, and they have for pretty much all of this offseason starting back in the spring. Just 22.5 implied total for Hawaii, but can’t stress enough the importance of the scheme change. 42.1 passing attempts the last three seasons at Eastern Washington. 79.9 plays per game which would be top 5 at the FBS level.
Best of the Rest – RB Dedrick Parson ($6,700) is probably the team’s best player on offense, finishing last year second on the team with 618 yards and eight touchdowns. Had a pair of highlight performances with 78 yards and two scores late in the year vs. Colorado State and 161 yards with three TDs vs. New Mexico State. This is an Air Raid offense, but running backs have been plenty successful, where the RB1 has averaged 19.0 FPPG over the last four seasons. 24.75 receptions per year in that span as well, so often utilized in the passing game too. WR James Phillips ($3,900) is probably the only other piece I would consider here as he’ll be in a slot-back role. From my understanding, it could be somewhat similar to what we saw with Calvin Turner…but maybe best not to quote me on that.
Injury Notes – n/a
