Stanford vs. Hawaii
- Point-Spread: Haw -2
- O/U Total: 53
- Implied Score: Haw 27.5 – Stan 25.5
- Weather: 80 degrees / 19% rain / 22 mph winds
Stanford:
Top Play(s) – RB Micah Ford ($4,700) Ford gets the nod here because of the lack of RB options on the slate, compared to wide receiver where there are plenty. Ford also gets a boost as projected backup Chris Davis is not included on the team’s depth chart. If looking for a reason to go against Ford, when describing the RB situation for Stanford, the team’s beat writer said it’s “still a bit of a mystery how the committee shakes out.” Hawaii has improved defensively each year that Timmy Chang has been at the helm, but are not world-beaters by any stretch, ranking 95th in defensive SP+.
Fade – QB Ben Gulbranson ($6,700) In fairness to Gulbranson, he did beat out a former 4-star recruit to win the starting job over Elijah Brown. But this is a low-upside, low-floor option with Stanford expecting to be a run-first, pro-style offense in 2025.
Bargain Bin – TE Sam Roush ($3,800) The position of most interest for Stanford is probably at tight end, which was a staple in Reich’s offenses during his NFL tenure with names like Eric Ebron, Jack Doyle and Mo AlieCox. Sam Roush is the one known commodity Stanford has in the passing game, totaling 68 receptions on 92 targets over the last two seasons. There’s a legitimate chance Roush leads Stanford in receiving, not only this week, but for the season.
Pivot Play – RB Cole Tabb ($3,500) With Chris Davis off the depth chart, and RB3 Tuna Altahir in a non-contact jersey, Tabb has joined Micah Ford as the running back getting most reps with the starters. Tabb was the third option in the backfield a year ago but got some run late in the season with double-digit rushing attempts in three games played, including 72 yards on 11 carries in Week 10 at NC State.
Best of the Rest – WRs Not much to speak of here, and there isn’t enough confidence in the quarterback position to warrant much exposure to any of the options here. CJ Williams is a former 5-star that is locked into a starting role but is now at his third school in as many years. Bryce Farrell was called out specifically by head coach Frank Reich as a standout but has just 36 receptions in five seasons of playing college football. If there’s a wildcard, it would be 4-star JonAnthony Hall who is expected to be one of the building blocks for a team that is essentially in Year 0 of a rebuild in 2025. He’ll see time on the field Saturday.
Injury Notes – WR Jordan Onovughe ($3,900) Last Stanford report on 8/16 on 247Sports has Onovughe absent from practices.
Hawaii:
Top Play(s) – QB Micah Alejado ($9,300) We know what the Hawaii Run-and-Shoot offense intends to do in 2025 – throw, throw and throw some more. The Warriors ranked in the top three nationally in pass play rate a year ago, and there is optimism that’ll continue behind the arm of second-year QB Micah Alejado. The local product flashed in last year’s season finale, posting 469 passing yards, 52 rushing yards, five touchdowns and 54 fantasy points against New Mexico. There’s just two quarterbacks on the slate that could go nuclear on Saturday, and Alejado is one of those as a dual-threat and top five projected fantasy quarterback for 2025.
Fade – RBs. We don’t know exactly who will start between Landon Sims or Cam Barfield and it won’t matter. Hawaii was 123rd in rush play percentage a year ago, and Alejado will factor into the carry distribution as well.
Bargain Bin – WR Brandon White ($3,500) The former Kentucky transfer will be a popular punt option at wide receiver, as he flashed in multiple highlight reel plays on the team’s official Twitter page (yes, I still call it Twitter). There’s a chance White is WR4 behind the top three, but that’s ok – tight ends are designated blockers and RBs aren’t utilized in the passing game.
Pivot Play – WR Jackson Harris ($5,100) Harris will likely see the least amount of ownership amongst the top four receivers for Hawaii on the slate because of his pricing. But the former Stanford transfer (Revenge game narrative) was the talk of spring camp earlier in the offseason, earning rave reviews from the coaching staff. Like White, Harris also has track-level speed with better height at 6-foot-3.
Best of the Rest – WR Pofele Ashlock ($6,900) and / or WR Nick Cenacle ($5,900) Playing two Hawaii WRs is the rout to go on this slate, and potentially three given the expected passing volume we alluded to above. Ashlock has been lethal against P4 opponents in the past, with multiple 100-yard performances, including one against Stanford back in 2023.
Injury Notes – n/a
Fresno State vs. Kansas
- Point-Spread: KU -12.5
- O/U Total: 50.5
- Implied Score: KU 31.5 – Fres 19
- Weather: 85 degrees / 6% rain / 5 mph winds
Kansas:
Top Play(s) – RB Daniel Hishaw Jr. ($5,300) Hishaw as the top play is a layup simply because of his pricing on DK. Too cheap for a Kansas RB1 against a Mountain West opponent. The primary backup to Devin Neal the last few seasons, Hishaw came into fall camp in the best shape of his playing career from all accounts and should be a lock at finding the end-zone this week with KU’s implied team total of over four touchdowns.
Fade – WR Cam Pickett ($5,600) There’s hasn’t been much upside to investing in Kansas receivers over the years, and the Ball State transfer isn’t even a listed starter, placed on the second line of the depth chart in an OR situation. The price point as the second highest salaried receiver makes Pickett an easy fade at cost. The upshot play as a secondary receiver after Emmanuel Henderson would be WR Levi Wentz ($4,100) who was predicted by at least one Kansas beat writer to be the second-leading wideout in 2025.
Bargain Bin – RB Leshon Williams ($4,500) Not opposed to rostering Williams over Hishaw for leverage against the field. Devin Neal dominated the touch share last year for the Jayhawks, but we’ve seen multiple times in the past under head coach Lance Leipold that he’s willing to distribute carries to several backs. Rather than a “starter / backup”, this is expected a “1A / 1B” situation between Hishaw and Williams this season.
Pivot Play – QB Jalon Daniels ($7,800) Jalon Daniels made it through fall camp unscathed after dealing with back injuries the last few years. He’s the third QB option behind Alejado and Maverick McIvor and reasonably priced at that. Fresno State is returning just four starters on defense from a year ago and loses two starters in the secondary.
Best of the Rest – WR Emmanuel Henderson ($6,100) Praise has been effusive this entire offseason for the Alabama transfer who is considered one of, if not the fastest player on the team. Henderson was a standout back in the spring, and that hype continued into fall camp to where he’s emerged as the Jayhawks’ undisputed WR1.
Injury Notes – n/a
Fresno State:
Top Play(s) – RB Bryson Donelson ($6,700) Donelson gets the nod as the top play by default given he’ll be the focal point of the Fresno State offense in 2025. Donelson finished second on the team last season with 476 rushing yards on just 78 attempts (6.1 YPC), with 263 of those yards coming in the final three games. If not this week, make sure Donelson is one your radar for the remainder of the season, because he’s a 1,000-yard back if he plays in all 12 games.
Fade – QB EJ Warner ($6,200) If ranking the quarterbacks on both DK and FD, Warner would come in dead last. He’s a non-runner in an offense that will probably run the football at a 65% clip under new head coach Matt Entz. Even if you enter 100 lineups, I would go as far as to say you should have zero exposure to Warner. RB Elijah Gilliam ($4,300) is also an easy fade as he’s moved to fullback after losing out on the RB2 job.
Bargain Bin – TE Richie Anderson ($3,500) Anderson had a solid freshman season with 17 receptions on 19 targets. Fresno State won’t throw much under new offensive coordinator Josh Davis, but he’s featured the tight end position at his previous stop with South Dakota State, with his TE1 combining for nine receiving touchdowns in the last two seasons.
Pivot Play – RB Rayshon Luke ($4,200) In five years as the head coach at North Dakota State, the offense under Matt Entz ran the ball 70% of the time. Josh Davis, Fresno State’s play caller, ran the ball 60% of the time at South Dakota State. This will be the identity of the Bulldogs in 2025. Luke is the RB2 but does bring some pedigree as a former P4 transfer, coming over from Arizona.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Fresno State returns just 10 percent of their receiving production from last season. Freeman is the most experienced and has the physique to be a No. 1 receiver at 6-foot-3, 195 lbs. Ezekiel Avit is another P4 transfer that arrived in the offseason from Maryland. He’ll join Freeman and Jordan Brown in the starting lineup. Not sure who ends up being WR1 out of this group, but limit to just one Fresno receiver in any lineup. Having two is a death sentence for that lineup.
Injury Notes – n/a
Sam Houston vs. Western Kentucky
- Point-Spread: WKU -10.5
- O/U Total: 60.5
- Implied Score: WKU 35.5 – SH 25
- Weather: 86 degrees / 15% rain / 5 mph winds
Sam Houston:
Top Play(s) – WR Qua’Vez Humphreys ($5,400) The big mystery team on the slate is Sam Houston. And if you hit right, it could pay off with new head coach Phil Longo in town. Humphreys is the leading returning receiver with 20 receptions on 48 targets last season. While he was listed in an OR situation on the depth chart, most of those that cover Sam Houston have reiterated to take the depth chart with a MAJOR grain of salt. The team’s media guide highlighted Humphrey as their top playmaker to watch out for this season.
Fade – QB Hunter Watson ($7,700) This one pains me to put here as one of my offseason sleepers in College Fantasy but seems as though the leash might be very short on Watson as the team’s starting quarterback. If he hits, Watson will hit big as Longo has developed a reputation as a QB whisperer, tutoring the likes of Drake Maye and Sam Howell in the past. And we know what Watson can do on the ground, rushing for 647 yards and nine touchdowns last season. The issue is that Longo brought in Wisconsin transfer Mabrey Mettauer in the offseason, who he recruited to Madison during his time with the Badgers. There’s a chance we see two QBs Saturday, or Watson gets replaced early in the season for Longo’s guy.
Bargain Bin – WR Malik Phillips ($4,500) If we stick to the trends of Phil Longo as a playcaller, the slot position has been the most profitable, dating back to the days of Dazz Newsome at North Carolina, and even last year with Will Pauling. Phillips was limited to just three games played in 2024, but does bring experience, with 35 receptions on 63 targets back in 2023 as a starter.
Pivot Play – WR Michael Phoenix ($4,900) Phoenix should be the nominal third option behind Humphreys and Phillips, catching three touchdowns on 25 targets a season ago. Don’t heavily invest in multiple Sam Houston receivers given the question marks at quarterback.
Best of the Rest – RBs Full disclosure – I don’t know what to make of this situation and will be a pregame warmup watch party for DFS players. Elijah Green was the expected starter, given his P4 experience and having played under Longo in the past but was nowhere to be found on the depth chart. Same goes for Alton McCaskill, the Arizona State transfer. Landon Brown and Jerrian Parker were the two RBs listed on the two-deep, if you believe it to be accurate. Proceed here with extreme caution.
Injury Notes – Watch out for Elijah Green news.
Western Kentucky:
Top Play(s) – QB Maverick McIvor ($8,500) The one player on the WKU offense that we know is 100%, without a doubt, locked into a starting role. While McIvor is on a new team in 2025, there won’t be much of a transition period as he’ll play under the same offensive coordinator as he did a year ago at Abilene Christian in Rick Bowie. Those teams under Bowie threw at a 56% clip, including last season where McIvor tossed 30 touchdowns and over 3,800 passing yards. This is an Air Raid offense, which makes McIvor especially appealing.
Fade – RB La’Vell Wright ($6,900) Don’t expect WKU to run the ball much, this season, and if they do, it’ll likely be a rotation of backs. Also, if you listen to the G5 Hive preview on Youtube, interviewing an individual that covers the team, RB George Hart III ($5,700) was the choice for RB1, not Wright. Could give you an edge with your lineups given the pricing disparity.
Bargain Bin – TE Noah Meyers ($3,500) TE production is very limited under Rick Bowie in his last three seasons of calling plays at Valdosta State and Abilene Christian. Just 34 combined receptions in the last three years, but his TE1 last season did have four touchdowns. Meyers was targeted three times in Week 14 last season where he had 66 yards receiving. He’s a red-zone option at 6-foot-5.
Pivot Play – WR Cameron Flowers ($5,000) or WR Moussa Barry ($4,400) Flowers and Barry are expected to be the WR3 and WR4 respectively in the WKU offense, largely based off their spring game performances. Flowers, a redshirt freshman, caught two touchdowns from McIvor in the WKU spring game. Barry has been with the program for several years now and also caught a TD in the spring. WR Kelby Williams ($5,700), a former Old Dominion transfer, could also factor in.
Best of the Rest – WR KD Hutchinson ($6,600) and / or WR Matthew Henry ($6,400) This is an Air Raid as we stated, so multiple WKU receivers in your lineups is a viable option, with Hutchinson and Henry expected to pace the group. Hutchinson will start in the slot, and is the most experienced returning option, converting on 83% of his 30 targets in 2024. Henry hauled in 63 catches for nearly 1,200 yards last season at Western Illinois. It’s unknown as to who the true WR1 will be between the two as of now.
Injury Notes – n/a
Iowa State vs. Kansas State
- Point-Spread: KSU -3.5
- O/U Total: 49.5
- Implied Score: KSU 26.5 – ISU 23
- Weather: 63 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Iowa State:
Top Play(s) – RB Carson Hansen ($7,500) We won’t have much exposure on the Iowa State side with the low (ish) implied team total and a depth chart that provided more questions than answers. What was notable was that Hansen was alone at RB1 and not in an OR situation with Abu Sama. HC Matt Campbell hyped up Hansen in fall camp, quoted as saying “he’s got a wow factor about him that, if he can stay healthy, he’s got a chance to be a really, really special football player.” High praise for someone who already rushed for 13 touchdowns last year.
Fade – WR Daniel Jackson ($5,000) Not only is Jackson questionable, but he’s listed on the third line of the depth chart – probably injury related – and we all remember the target share last year for the Cyclones where Jayden Higgins / Jaylin Noel dominated the distribution. WR3 likely won’t be valuable again for Iowa State this year either.
Bargain Bin – TE Benjamin Brahmer ($4,600) A healthy Brahmer likely starts at tight end over Gabe Burkle who is more expensive on FD. Both players should see usage in this offense with question marks at wide receiver. I favor the cheaper option depending on which site you’re using.
Pivot Play – WR Chase Sowell ($7,500) and / or WR Xavier Townsend ($5,800) The Cyclones need to replace not one, but two 1,000-yard receivers in Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins who combined for 17 touchdowns and a whopping 56% of the team’s target share. Transfers Chase Sowell (East Carolina) and Xavier Townsend (Central Florida) should slide in seamlessly into those roles, with the 6-foot-4 Sowell starting at outside receiver and Townsend in the slot. The depth chart caused a bit of uneasiness with both being listed in OR situations, but from a talent perspective, they’re the top two on the team.
Best of the Rest – QB Rocco Becht ($10,700) Becht is one of the more experienced and dependable fantasy options in the country at the quarterback position. The issue on FD is that he’s more expensive than Maverick McIvor and Micah Alejado who possess far more upside. 20-25 points is likely his ceiling this week given the game total.
Injury Notes – WR Daniel Jackson (questionable), RB Jayden Jackson (out)
Kansas State:
Top Play(s) – RB Dylan Edwards ($9,400) Edwards flashed his potential in the bowl game against Rutgers, exploding for 196 yards and three total touchdowns on just 18 carries. At 5-foot-7 and 170 pounds, he is reminiscent of another Kansas State running back that thrived in this system…remember Deuce Vaughn? He’s still our top K-State RB as of now but check the pivot play below as to why we’re slightly hesitant.
Fade – Backups. There really isn’t a true fade for K-State based on pricing and projection. We’d just stay away from anyone that isn’t a starter. Johnson is the clear RB1. Edwards and Jackson will dominate the touch share in the backfield. And the top three WRs are clear-cut above the rest.
Bargain Bin – WR Jaron Tibbs ($6,000) or WR Jerand Bradley ($5,000) Either one makes sense. The prevailing sentiment coming out of K-State fall ball is the WR room being drastically improved over year’s past. Having a pair of P4 transfers like Bradley (Texas Tech) and Tibbs (Purdue) come in helps matters. Only invest in one K-State receiver per lineup, though, as the Wildcats will only throw the ball around 40-45% of the time.
Pivot Play – RB Joe Jackson ($5,600) If you notice on the team depth chart, there are two RB spots, one of which was Edwards and the other belonging to Jackson. The sophomore is much bigger at 212 pounds, and also flashed in the bowl game like Edwards with 87 total yards and a touchdown. At least one K-State beat writer has indicated this could be more of a split workload than previously thought to be.
Best of the Rest – QB Avery Johnson ($11,500) Johnson finished as QB20 in his first full year as the starter, scoring 22 or more fantasy points in nine of 12 regular season games. Spring reports were glowing: he’s added size and strength and was one of four players on the roster to hit 23 MPH during offseason training. I would attempt to have at least one of Johnson or a RB in each lineup – Johnson and DJ Giddens had a hand in 87% of the team’s touchdowns a year ago. WR Jayce Brown ($8,500) is the clear-cut WR1 for the Wildcats, and Johnson should be improved as a passer so his numbers will go up in 2025.
Injury Notes – TE Linkon Cure (out), WR Larry Porter IV (out)
Mike’s DK Core Four:
- QB Micah Alejado, Hawaii
- RB Daniel Hishaw, Kansas
- QB Maverick McIvor, Western Kentucky
- Hawaii Receivers (any of them)
Mike’s FD Core Four:
- QB Micah Alejado, Hawaii
- QB Maverick McIvor, Western Kentucky
- RB Dylan Edwards, Kansas State
- Hawaii Receivers (any of them)
