Montana State vs. New Mexico
Point-Spread: MSU –10.5
O/U Total: 53.5
Implied Score: MSU 32 – NM 21.5
Weather: 87 degrees / 40% rain / 13 mph winds
New Mexico:
Top Play(s) – QB Devon Dampier ($6,100) We have a high projection for Dampier, but this comes with a lot of risk. This is Year 1 of a new coaching staff under Bronco Mendenhall and the Lobos are already a double-digit underdog to an FCS opponent. The potential in this offense is tantalizing, though, as the QB position is the cornerstone, producing CFF studs in the past like Taysom Hill and Brennan Armstrong. Between 2018-21, Mendenhall’s QB1s finished inside the top 25 in CFF every year, combining to average 28 FPPG. High upside, high risk here.
Fade – RB Andrew Henry ($5,700) Because of the QB’s involvement in the run game in this scheme, we’re rarely going to be interested in New Mexico’s running backs all year. That’s especially the case when we have an OR situation between three contenders. And that’s especially the case again when New Mexico is a double-digit underdog. I’d go the cheap route if taking a New Mexico running back like RB Naquari Rogers ($3,000) who was actually listed ahead of Henry.
Bargain Bin – WR Nic Trujillo ($3,800) While his predictions can be way off at times, you tend to notice when a player surprisingly pops up as a starter in the Phil Steele magazine. That was the case for Trujillo who redshirted as a freshman. Steele was right on the money apparently as he’s listed as a starter on the Week 0 depth chart. Admittedly don’t know much at all about the player, but cheap enough that you can throw some darts here where New Mexico will be forced to throw. Trujillo did score two touchdowns in the team’s spring game back in April.
Pivot Play – WR Caleb Medford ($5,000) Some doubt here considering the team’s leading target getter from a year ago didn’t have a solidified start on the team’s depth chart. Or are we reading into a piece of paper too much? The former TCU transfer averaged over 18 yards per catch last season, and like QB, this scheme has produced some high-end fantasy receivers in the past like Olamide Zaccheaus and DontayvionWicks.
Best of the Rest – RB Eli Sanders ($4,700) The running back position under Mendenhall has been very hit or miss over the years. We had examples of Wayne Taulapapa who didn’t have more than 90 carries in a season over the span of two years. But we also had examples of Jordan Ellis in 2018 who posted 200 carries and over 1,000 rushing yards. As there’s not a solidified starter (in our eyes) at the moment, it is probably best to just see how this situation plays out over the course of the year and fade for this week. If you’re into high school acquaintances, Illinois transfer and now starting receiver WR Shawn Miller ($3,000) went to the same school as Dampier.
Injury Notes – n/a
Montana State:
Top Play(s) – QB Tommy Mellott ($7,000) Will be the highest owned QB on the slate based on price and dual threat ability. Montana State deploys a run-based offensive scheme that ran the ball 67% of the time in 2023 with 37% of those rushing attempts distributed to the quarterback position. Mellott closed last season on a tear with 259 rushing yards in the final two outings. Because of MSU’s run-centric approach, there is no need to pair him with any MSU receivers in the same lineup.
Fade – RB Adam Jones ($4,400) Jones is listed as the RB2 on the depth chart, but we’re uncertain as to how the carries will be allocated behind Humphrey as Jared White and Elijah Elliott are both still on the roster and saw more playing time in 2023. We’ll play the safe route with these ambiguous situations and just lean on the starter in Humphrey is selecting a MSU running back.
Bargain Bin – WR Lonyatta Alexander ($4,200) Fun part about looking at these FCS teams is seeing all the transfers coming over from the FBS level. Alexander, a former 4-star recruit and Washington transfer, nabs a starting spot on the depth chart and provides a big-bodied option at 6-foot-3. Do not have more than one MSU receiver in your lineups given the style of offense the Bobcats run.
Pivot Play – WR Ty McCulloch ($4,900) The former Colorado State transfer likely functions as the team’s WR1 in 2024 after recording five TDs in just eight games last season. McCulloch was the team’s top deep threat, averaging nearly 19 yards per catch and a 16.2 aDOT.
Best of the Rest – RB Scottre Humphrey ($4,600) Humphrey will start in place of the injured Julius Davis after an impressive freshman campaign where he tallied eight touchdowns on just 55 attempts. Humphrey will also garner a high ownership % because of his pricing, though I’d be cautious as MSU is not shy about spreading carries around. Three running backs, and five players overall, had 50 or more rushing attempts for the Bobcats last season.
Injury Notes – RB Julius Davis ($5,400) Blast from the past here with the former Wisconsin transfer who was once thought to be next man up in a long line of stud backs for the Badgers. He’s not listed on the initial MSU depth chart, though, likely signifying that he’s out.
SMU vs. Nevada
Point-Spread: SMU -26.5
O/U Total: 56.5
Implied Score: SMU 41.5 – Nev 15
Weather: 67 degrees / 13% rain / 15 mph winds
SMU:
Top Play(s) – There Isn’t One. We obviously want exposure on the SMU side given their implied team total, but there may not have been a team in college football last season that spread the ball around more than the Mustangs. No wideout had more than 13% target share in 2023, and six of the top seven are all back. Four different running backs had at least four rushing scores. And now we might see a two-QB system. Go into this game with the expectation that a wide receiver likely won’t have more than five receptions, and no running back will tally more than 15 carries. Just not how SMU operates right now.
Fade – WR Key’Shawn Smith ($5,100) Smith doesn’t make much sense fiscally as the likely 5th or 6th option in the SMU passing game. While listed as a starter on the depth chart, the chatter in fall camp seems to be centered around other receivers. He’ll have low ownership, though.
Bargain Bin – RB Brashard Smith ($3,600) With Camar Wheaton done for the year, the Miami transfer and converted receiver is expected to assume the RB3 role behind Knighton/Johnson. There’s hesitancy here as this will be the first time Smith will play the running back position at the collegiate level, but all reports suggest he’ll be included in the RB rotation that has 122 vacated carries and 12 touchdowns with Wheaton OFY and last year’s RB4 Tyler Lavine no longer available. At the very least, plenty of garbage time reps available in a likely blowout.
Pivot Play – RB LJ Johnson ($5,500) Johnson will be the forgotten man here with most spending up for Knighton or going cheap with Smith. But if you haven’t read our CFF guide yet (you really should), there’s some interesting tidbits about the SMU RB rotation from last year. Most notably, Johnson led all Mustang running backs a year ago with 26 red zone carries. The former Texas A&M transfer was really hitting his stride too pre-injury with multiple 100-yar rushing performances against North Texas and Memphis. SMU will rotate heavily but was listed as the RB1 per the SMU beat writer.
Best of the Rest – QB Preston Stone ($8,900) Stone played as expected in his first year as a full-time starter, completing 60% of his throws for 3,200 yards and 32 touchdowns. Stone was also one of the best fantasy quarterbacks in the country the second half of last season, posting 30 or more fantasy points in six of the last seven games. Unfortunately, this coaching staff loves backup QB Kevin Jennings ($7,500), so much so that he was also named one of the team’s captains for this season along with Stone. Both were also going to play given the lopsided spread, but it sounds as though Jennings will not just come in for mop-up duty. Play Stone at your own risk. If there’s a receiver that develops into an alpha for SMU this season, WR Jordan Hudson ($6,000) would be that guy as he has the size, speed profile you look for in a WR1 and has had a great fall camp from all accounts. Don’t pay much attention to the official depth chart, he’ll be a starter. WR Romello Brinson ($4,100),another Miami transfer, added 10 pounds to his frame in the offseason and is worth a dart throw as well. TE RJ Maryland ($5,400) and WR Jake Bailey ($6,300) don’t have the enticing upside as the other receivers, but still were 1-2 last season in targets for the Mustangs.
Injury Notes – RB Camar Wheaton ($5,000) Wheaton will miss the season due to injury.
Nevada:
Top Play(s) – WR Cortez Braham Jr. ($4,700) Here’s your best bring-back candidate if pairing with a SMU-heavy lineup. The former West Virginia transfer is expected to lead the Wolfpack in receptions this season if the team’s beat writer has an accurate depiction of this team.
Fade – QB Brendon Lewis ($6,200) Lewis is the least appealing QB on the entire slate as he won the starting job by default essentially, with Nebraska transfer Chubba Purdy out most of fall camp. Lewis is a dual threat, but legitimately one of the worst throwers of the football at the collegiate level. If there is any attraction to Lewis, it’s his pairing with offensive coordinator Matt Lubick who has coached some terrific dual threat QBs in the past at Nebraska and Oregon where his QB1s averaged close to 25 FPPG.
Bargain Bin – WR Jaden Smith ($4,600) The messaging throughout fall camp was that Nevada had a solidified top two on the outside with Braham and Smith, so we’re expecting a centralized target share between the two. Smith is the deep threat of the two options, transferring in from Tarleton State after posting 10 touchdowns in 2022, averaging nearly 20 yards per catch. He was consistently running with the 1s this offseason.
Pivot Play – WR Ashton Hayes ($3,500) Surprised to see Hayes listed as a backup on the Week 0 depth chart given the hype he received from the coaching staff early in fall camp. A longshot option at best, Hayes does bring versatility to the field as a converted running back turned slot receiver that will also be the team’s punt returner. That could lead to enough manufactured touches in the slot or the backfield to pay off his salary.
Best of the Rest – RB Sean Dollars ($5,600) Dollars was injured at the onset of fall camp but was back in full per head coach Jeff Choate. The former 4-star accounted for 34% of the rushing share a year ago with nearly half of the team’s rushing touchdowns (6). Nevada bolstered it’s RB room in the offseason with multiple transfers who could also factor in, so we’d limit exposure on a running back returning from injury in a matchup with a terrible game script.
Injury Notes – RB Pat Garwo ($4,200) The Boston College transfer was not listed on the initial depth chart and could be on a pitch count according to the Nevada head coach. The Wolfpack are not good enough at running the football to even consider playing a less-than-100-percent option. 214-pound Texas transfer RB Savion Red ($3,300) is likely the primary backup as he has familiarity with this coaching staff.
Florida State vs. Georgia Tech
Point-Spread: FSU -11
O/U Total: 57
Implied Score: FSU 34 – GT 23
Weather: 58 degrees / 16% rain / 16 mph winds
Florida State:
Top Play(s) – RB Roydell Williams ($7,100) HC Mike Norvell really hasn’t had a bell-cow since his days at Memphis, and we’re not anticipating one this season. BUT, on the off chanceFlorida State rides one guy, it would be Alabama transfer Roydell Williams who is taking over the Trey Benson role in the backfield. There may not be high upside here as FSU is going to split the carries potentially four ways, but Williams is the safest choice amongst the group to find the end-zone.
Fade – WR Hykeem Williams ($4,400) High on potential, low on productivity is the best way to describe a large portion of the FSU receivers. Williams, a former borderline 5-star, had every chance to seize a starting job coming out of fall camp and failed to do so. Listed on the third line of the depth chart, he’s likely only getting on the field in garbage time.
Bargain Bin – TE Kyle Morlock ($4,300) Morlock played well in a secondary role behind Jaheim Bell with 19 receptions on 30 targets, and his 6-foot-6 frame makes him a clear red-zone threat. Reviews were all positive this entire offseason and wouldn’t surprise to see him finish second or third on the team in targets in 2024.
Pivot Play – Fade DJU. QB DJ Uiagalelei ($9,000) will be a popular option on Saturday given the implied team total for FSU. But that price tag is steep, and weather is likely to be a factor on Saturday with wind and rain in the forecast. Listening to some FSU podcasts, those that cover the team are of similar thinking that the Seminoles will deploy a run-heavy approach on Saturday against what was one of the worst rush defenses in the country a year ago. I think we look at alternative options at QB here.
Best of the Rest – WR Malik Benson ($7,000) Steep price for a guy that flamed out at Alabama last season, but Benson is the surefire WR1 for the Seminoles coming out of spring ball. LSU transfer WR Jalen Brown ($4,800) has been the talk of fall camp, and that’s continued into game week as beat reporters praised his performances in practices. DO NOT, I repeat, do not stack FSU receivers. Brown is the pivot to Benson. RB Lawrance Toafili ($7,700) will be deployed in the same role that he’s been in the last three years. Like WRs, do not stack the FSU backfield together. Indiana transfer RB Jaylin Lucas ($5,100) could be the exception as he’s a chess piece, utilized as a running back and slot receiver.
Injury Notes – n/a
Georgia Tech:
Top Play(s) – WR Eric Singleton Jr. ($5,300) Best bang for your buck option on the slate at the WR position. Singleton was a freshman phenom a year ago with 714 yards and six touchdowns on a team-high 82 targets. Play him solo or pair with his quarterback – both are viable options. FSU lost three starters from last year’s secondary, but there’s no lacking for talent in the backend for the Seminoles.
Fade – RB Trey Cooley ($5,300) Two reasons we’re not investing any shares this week with Cooley. 1) The spread, obviously. We’re not taking the backup RB from a double-digit underdog. 2) Parsing through the coach’s quotes, it does not sound like there was an established RB2 behind Haynes in the backfield. This situation is unsettled, and we could see multiple options behind the starter. No thanks.
Bargain Bin – TE Jackson Hawes ($3,000) or TE Avery Boyd ($3,600) High risk / low reward plays here admittedly for a team that’s top tight end last season had just 18 targets in 13 games played. Offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner has simply never utilized the tight end position at any of his previous stops at Middle Tennessee or Arkansas State. But there’s two intriguing options in Boyd, a WR turned TE which is always enticing, and Hawes who caught six touchdowns during his time at Yale. While targets were low last year, the TE1 did have four receiving TDs for the Yellow Jackets, and we would just need one to pay off the salary.
Pivot Play – WR Malik Rutherford ($5,200) Rutherford excelled in the slot last season with a 67% catch rate and one drop on 66 targets, good for second on the team. FSU is still figuring out their starter at both nickel and free safety, the two positions that would probably guard Rutherford, so the veteran may have the advantage in certain matchups. While the 7.6 aDOT from last season won’t lend to explosive plays, those underneath dump offs to Rutherford could come into play as winds up to possibly 40 MPH could occur.
Best of the Rest – QB Haynes King ($7,100) King will likely be the third highest-owned QB on the slate, but should that be the case? The former A&M transfer revitalized his career last season with 3,500 total yards of offense and 37 touchdowns. Consistency was his best attribute, scoring 20 or more fantasy points in every single start, along with eight performances of 30+ fantasy points. Give me consistency, no matter the matchup, over the risk of a dud from DJU. RB Jamal Haynes ($6,300) may have the highest ownership of any player on the slate if you’re looking to be contrarian. But with the backup situation unsettled, Haynes could be in for a heavy workload. WR Chase Lane ($4,700) is locked into the WR3 role.
Injury wNotes – n/a
