Kansas @ Coastal Carolina
Point-Spread: CCU -25.5
O/U Total: 52
Weather: 76 degrees / 2% rain / 4 mph winds
Kansas:
My concerns with the Kansas offense and Year 1 under Lance Leipold came to fruition for one week at least as the Jayhawks rushed for 82 yards on 41 carries (2.0 YPC) against defensive juggernaut…South Dakota. RB Velton Gardner was completely ineffective, barely amassing 20 yards on 19 attempts. Woof. Instead of giving 4-star FR Devin Neal looks, the staff turned to QB turned WR turned RB Torry Locklin. Didn’t show on the stat-sheet, but Locklin was the RB getting snaps late in the contest and did have a crucial block that helps Kansas win the game.
As for Neal, just one carry on three snaps total, but expect his workload to increase as the season rolls along. Amauri Pesek-Hickson, the biggest of the running backs on the roster, is considered day-to-day. Coastal Carolina ranks 23rd in defensive run EPA after one week, so I’ll be fading this Kansas backfield most likely.
We didn’t see anything from QB Jason Bean that we didn’t already know he had in his arsenal. 56 yards on 10 carries – six of which were designed runs – and completed 17-of-26 passes for 163 yards and two touchdowns. Will be tempting to roster Bean given his salary and running ability, but an implied total of just 13.5 and facing a defense that brings back 10 starters and already ranks 7th in defensive EPA after one game.
Best deal by far amongst the KU receivers on DK is Buffalo transfer Trevor Wilson who led the team with five receptions on seven targets and is still min priced. Last year’s WR1 Kwamie Lassiter and Steven McBride among the top three WRs in snaps vs. South Dakota but their production was minimal with four catches on seven targets for 20 yards combined. Former 3-star recruit Lawrence Arnold made the most of his five targets with two receiving touchdowns. Leipold was not known for his tight end production at Buffalo but Bean seemed to have a good connection with Mason Fairchild who caught all four of his targets for 58 yards. Trevor Wilson interests me most of this group, but I won’t be investing much on KU players for Friday.
Coastal Carolina:
It’s just one game vs. an FCS opponent, but it was a very good start for the Coastal Carolina rush offense despite losing CJ Marable from last season, their only starter not returning. CCU returns all five starters along the offensive line and already anks second nationally in rush EPA after combining for 262 yards, five rushing TDs and a 8.19 yards per carry average as a team. Only trouble here is we might be getting a RBBC with as many as three running backs between Shermari Jones, Reese White and freshman Braydon Bennett. Jones led the team in carries but the snap counts were even between him and White, and I won’t be making any serious judgements about this backfield until we see them against a real opponent. All three backs looked good and are to be considered against a KU defense that allowed over four yards a carry to South Dakota. Expect Jones to be one of the more highly-owned players of the slate at just $4k. Bennett is also intriguing at min price as he also added three receptions on three targets while also averaging nearly 10 yards a pop.
Not diving into Grayson McCall here – he’s the player you have the most exposure with, regardless of whether for cash or GPP.
Five receivers saw considerable playing time vs. Citadel with the expected name at the top, Jaivon Heiligh, leading the way with 6-133-1 on seven targets. No other receiver between Kameron Brown, Tyson Mobley, Greg Latushko and Tyler Roberts had more than two targets on the night, but if desperately wanting to choose another CCU receiver, lean towards last year’s starters in Brown and Latushko.
Isaiah Likely remains the same weapon over the middle of the field that we saw a year ago, finishing second on the team with 5-64-0 on six targets. I’m unfamiliar with backup Xavier Gravette, but did record 54 yards and a touchdown – likely in garbage time.
North Carolina A&T @ Duke
Point-Spread: n/a
O/U Total: n/a
Weather: 71 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
North Carolina A&T:
Big name to know here is 6-foot-3 senior WR Ron Hunt who posted 5-146-2 in the opener vs. Furman and only $3,900 on DK. According to the team bio, Hunt has a 34.5” vertical and ran a 4.34 40-yard dash, and might be on some NFL radars come next spring. As a heavy underdog, Hunt could see substantial targets vs. a Duke defense that allowed Charlotte’s Chris Reynolds to complete 63 percent of his passes and allowed three passing TDs. I don’t see target data anywhere to this point, but box score would indicate Korey Banks is the second option in the passing game with 5-66-0 in the opener.
Avoiding the running game here, led by former East Carolina transfer Jah-Maine Martin. If you rush for 2.3 yards per carry as a team vs. Furman, I have a hard time believing you’ll do much of anything vs. Duke. Quarterback Jalen Fowler is intriguing from the standpoint that he offers a rushing element, totaling 29 yards on 11 carries, but failed to complete 50 percent of his passes in Week 1. Hunt is the only risk I’d take from the Aggies.
Duke:
Duke needed every one of those 29 carries last week from Mataeo Durant vs. Charlotte and 255 yards still wasn’t enough to beat the 49ers. Of the promising stats to come out of Duke’s performance was that of the offensive line which ranked as the third-best group per Pro Football Focus following this weekend’s action. The 29-5 carry distribution between Durant and RB2 Jordan Waters “should” be the most lopsided of the season based on the split we’ve seen typically from a David Cutcliffe offense, and I suspect the backups to get more run in what should be a blowout victory. Waters only saw five attempts vs. Charlotte but looked plenty capable, averaging 13 yards per carry and had a 43-yard receiving TD.
Plenty of good and bad from QB1 Gunnar Holmberg vs. Charlotte. Completed 69 percent of his throws for 228 yards and a TD, but two crucial fumbles, one of which occurred at the goal-line that would’ve gave the Blue Devils the lead. Will be curious to see if the staff gets Holmberg on the move more this week in a scheme where the QB averages right around 10 carries a contest over the last few seasons. Holmberg had just two designed runs last week.
Wouldn’t be surprised if Cutcliffe looks to get some experience for his first-year starter this week in preparation for the ACC conference schedule on the horizon. Looking back to 2019, the last time Duke played North Carolina A&T in Week 2, first-year starter Quentin Harris threw it 42 times for 345 yards and four TDs in another blowout win. Might we see something similar? I think you can take a shot here with Holmberg in larger GPPs.
Junior Jake Bobo was the far-and-away leader in snaps (65), and also led Duke with 7-81-0 on nine targets. Eli Pancol and Jalon Calhoun saw the second and third most snaps, respectively, but this should be a five-man rotation if years past are any indication with Jarett Garner and Darrell Harding Jr. also seeing plenty of game reps. Not sure what it says about Pancol playing that many snaps (49) and seeing just one target on the night. Bobo and Calhoun are the plays here. Tight end has been featured in this scheme in recent seasons, but Jake Marwede saw all of one target as well.
North Dakota @ Utah State
Point-Spread: n/a
O/U Total: n/a
Weather: 83 degrees / 3% rain / 9 mph winds
North Dakota:
Similar to North Carolina A&T above, I think we have just one true play here in starting running back Otis Weah who tallied 114 yards and three touchdowns on 22 rushing attempts in the opener vs. Idaho State. Not a one-off performance either as Weah led the Hawks in rushing last year during a shortened seven-game season, averaging over seven yards a pop and accounted for one rushing score in every contest. Doesn’t appear as though Weah is used much in the passing game with just three receptions in 2020.
Starting QB Tommy Schuster is an incredibly efficient passer, completing 65.5 percent of his throws with a 2:1 touchdown to interception ratio. The volume just isn’t there to make him or his receivers a viable option, averaging 28 passing attempts per game. Schuster doesn’t look to be a running threat either, never having more than three carries in a game. Two top options in the passing game appear to be receiver Garett Maag (25-523-2) and TE1 Adam Zavalney who was tied for the team lead in TDs last season, and found the end-zone vs. Idaho State.
FWIW, Bill Connelly’s SP+ currently has North Dakota as a 1-point favorite so there’s a good chance this is a competitive contest.
Utah State:
Blake Anderson loves himself some quarterback rotations, splitting time between Logan Bonner and Andrew Peasley. That was until the fourth quarter where Bonner may have separated himself, leading the Aggies to two touchdown drives to seal the victory over Washington State. While Anderson has yet to announce a starting QB or a specific plan vs. North Dakota, safe to assume Bonner will get the first shot this week at securing the starting job for good. Because there is still the off chance that Peasley gets live reps, or takes over if Bonner struggles, I’m avoiding this room for now.
Three-way split at running back between Oregon State transfer Calvin Tyler Jr., John Gentry and Elelyon Noa, with Tyler finding the most success of the three, averaging six yards a carry and finding the end-zone. Tyler’s 14 carries were right on par with what to expect from a Blake Anderson RB1, averaging 13.3 rushing attempts over the last seven years, and would expect a similar distribution on Friday. At $3,500, Tyler is worth rostering.
Anderson was not opposed to using four or five receivers at a given time at Arkansas State, but the top three wideouts dominated the targets/snap counts in Week 1 with Deven Thompkins, Derek Wright and Justin McGriff. All three are in play for me, but Thompkins was the clear WR1 a year ago, and looks to be more of the same in 2021, totaling 94 yards and a TD on 11 targets. Outside the top three, former Arkansas State transfer Brandon Bowling is the only other WR worthy of any consideration (1-10-0 on three targets).
UTEP @ Boise State
Point-Spread: Boise State -26
O/U Total: 56.5
Weather: 78 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
UTEP:
Deion Hankins has already been ruled out for Friday, but head coach Dana Dimel said that all other “impact players” were back and practicing as of Wednesday morning. That might mean we are getting an extreme discount for RB1 Ronald Awatt who is now averaging seven yards a carry to begin the year with a touchdown in each of the first two games. While Boise State is the heavy favorite, should we be scared off by a defense that allowed over 250 yards and five yards a carry on the ground in their opener? While Hankins is out, Rey Flores looks to be the RB2, and led the Miners in snaps with Awatt unavailable for two quarters due to a left arm injury. Although the “impact players” being back at practice suggests Awatt will be a go for Friday, I’ll probably avoid here with the murky status.
I also think Gavin Hardison is potentially in play at $5,900 with a positive game-script favoring high passing volume as a 26-point dog. Competition level aside, Hardison is averaging a career-high 11.1 yards per attempt and completing 64.1 percent of his throws as UTEP ranks inside the Top 5 in EPA/Pass. It wasn’t much better for the Boise State defense through the air in Week 1, allowing 318 yards and four TDs to Dillon Gabriel. That said, these numbers also came against a winless New Mexico State team and Bethune Cookman.
Much of that success is due to Hardison’s connection with WR1 Jacob Cowing who has scored a touchdown in each of the first two weeks and is now averaging over 25.9 yards per catch with an aDOT of 16.0. Cowing and Justin Garrett feel way too cheap for two receivers that are dominating the target share once again (57 percent). JUCO transfer Tyrin Smith saw his snap counts increase dramatically (19 -> 42) from Week 0 to Week 1 and might see an increased role moving forward after posting 4-76-0 last time out.
Boise State:
CFB DFS wouldn’t officially be back without our first postgame scratch with George Holani being ruled out vs. UCF. There was zero indication that I saw Holani was even limited during fall camp, though head coach Andy Avalos stated, “he wasn’t ready to go this week” and didn’t want to jeopardize most of his season. Good reporting Boise State beat writers.
Alas, we will monitor pregame as to whether Holani will be in the lineup or not, but our suggestion is to not risk it with other appealing options on the slate. Not as though the offensive line did a good job of creating running lanes in Week 1 anyways, as the Broncos averaged 0.77 yards per carry as a team. Without Holani, this backfield is a wasteland with Cyrus Habibi-Likio and Andrew Van Buren who specialize at one thing – vulturing touchdowns. Combine that with an offensive line that was abused vs. UCF and we are avoiding this.
Aside from one boneheaded throw late, Hank Bachmeier played relatively well, completing 64.7 percent of his throws for 263 yards and two touchdowns. Despite being heavy favorites, I think this game script could still play in his favor with Holani possibly out still combined with how inept the Broncos were at running the football. Bachmeier’s interception masked how poor the play-calling was in the second half under new offensive coordinator Tim Plough who left much to be desired with his game plan. 39 passing attempts is in line with what we saw from Plough during his time at UC-Davis.
So, 5-91-2 is what Khalil Shakir can do when on a rep count? The senior receiver played just 21 snaps vs. UCF, fourth most amongst Boise State receivers, and still found a way to put up 26.8 fantasy points. Will need to check the injury report pregame on Friday to see what status Shakir is in – even though we probably won’t find out given how Boise State is so hush hush with injuries apparently. Of the snaps Shakir did not play, CT Thomas saw an increased role in the slot, though managed just one catch on three targets. It appears to this point he’s been relegated to backup duties. Junior Stefan Cobbs was a name that popped on plenty of fall practice reports, and he looks to have moved into the WR2 role now after posting 4-63-0 on six targets, and led the team with an aDOT of 15.0 vs. UCF. If moving off Shakir, or pairing the Boise State passing game, Cobbs would be the second option. Octavius Evans, once thought to be the heir apparent to John Hightower a few years back, saw starter reps and will be an integral part of the WR rotation.
We mentioned last week that the tight end position is typically involved in this offensive scheme, but the targets were split evenly between starter Riley Smith and Nebraska transfer Kurt Rafdal. I’ll avoid for now and focus on the receivers.