North Carolina @ Virginia Tech
Point-Spread: UNC -5.5
O/U Total: 64
Weather: 75 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
North Carolina:
Those that have followed me the last few years already know I’m locking in Josh Downs tomorrow as one of my WR options. A consensus Top 15 college fantasy receiver in 2021, the 5-foot-10 sophomore steps into an enviable situation for production in Phil Longo’s system where the slot receiver has averaged 72 receptions and eight touchdowns over the last seven seasons. We saw what Downs is capable of last season in the bowl game vs. Texas A&M with 4-91-2.
The Heels will be without Beau Corrales on Saturday, but should have ample depth to step in with Emery Simmons, Antoine Green and Khafre Brown all in the rotation. I have them ranked in order of projected fantasy production this week, but there is a significant drop in salary from Simmons to Green due to Green potentially splitting time with the speedy younger brother of Dyami. Brown has been banged up throughout fall camp so not sure as of now how much run he will receive, which makes Green an enticing candidate. Sophomore Justin Olson is listed as the primary backup to Downs in the slot but has received quite a bit of praise this summer and offers positional versatility being able to lineup outside as well.
Tight end usage is typically minimal in Longo’s system, but don’t completely discount TE1 Garrett Walston as the staff has made a point of emphasis to get the position more involved in the passing game for much of the offseason.
Ty Chandler is too cheap on DK not to play in most lineups, stepping into a situation behind a very good run blocking offensive line that returns four starters. His ability to catch passes – 58 receptions in four years – is an added bonus for a system that loves to throw to their RBs. Longo prefers to divvy up the carries between his top two backs as we saw last year with Javonte Williams and Michael Carter, so don’t discount incoming FR Caleb Hood as a viable lineup candidate. 10 carries per game is the seven year average for RB2s in this system, and we’ve never seen Chandler as a workhorse running back in the past, so Hood could potentially see considerable time on the field.
What more can be said about Sam Howell that hasn’t been said already. Maybe the inexperienced receiving corps will limit his production in 2021, but the Vegas implied total of 35 shows confidence in the Heels to put up points on Friday. Howell has been exceptional vs. the Hokies with over 600 yards passing and eight touchdowns with zero interceptions in two meetings.
Virginia Tech
Expect Virginia Tech to keep the ball on the ground vs. North Carolina on Friday with a stable of running backs and dual-threat quarterback Braxton Burmeister taking over at the helm. The Hokies offensive line is expected to be amongst the conference’s best groups, and this was an offense that put up nearly 500 yards and 45 points against this UNC defense a year ago. Burmeister leaves much to be desired as a passer, but is a tremendous athlete, clocking in at a reported 22.5 MPH which is tops on the team. He’s had trouble staying healthy in the past so the staff could be cautious with his touches, but he did average right around 10 carries last season when on the field.
Jalen Holston, Raheem Blackshear, Keshawn King are expected to be in a timeshare in the backfield to begin the season. Praise has been consistent in fall camp regarding Holston, and has improved his body reportedly over the last calendar year. Cheap enough at $4,200 that he’s in the player pool for us this week, but I’d refrain from expecting we see anything like Khalil Herbert a year ago from anyone in this group.
The Hokies can go nose to nose with any team in the ACC with their collection of pass-catchers of Tayvion Robinson, Tre Turner and tight end James Mitchell, but this is a bad matchup. The UNC secondary should be one of the better groups in the country, featuring Tony Grimes and Storm Duck, and I’m not confident just yet in Burmeister improving as a passer. The $6k range that they are in on DK is just too pricey.
Duke @ Charlotte
Point-Spread: Duke -6
O/U Total: 60.5
Weather: 77 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
Duke:
I was in diapers the last time Duke had a 1,000-yard rusher. Not really, but it’s been a long-ass time since that’s occurred – 2003 to be exact. The Blue Devils under head coach David Cutcliffe have seemingly always divvyed up the carries between two running backs, but have been vocal about their intent to feed RB1 Mataeo Durant more than they typically have with their starter in the past. Duke’s offensive line was atrocious last season but bring back three starters, and should be able to win the trenches battle vs. a Charlotte defense in complete rebuild, returning just 56 percent of their defensive production. I think Durant eats on Friday.
Should Cutcliffe and the staff inexplicably go back to their old ways of splitting reps, RB2 Jordan Waters solidified his standing as the top backup coming out of the fall, and did have a 50-yard touchdown run back in the Duke spring game. $6,200 on DK is just wayyyyyy to steep a price to pay for a backup.
QB1 Gunnar Holmberg has been with the program for four seasons, but minimal on-field experience with just 25 passing attempts last season. Similar to Duke QBs in the past, Holmberg is a dual-threat and this system will feature the position on the ground, averaging around 130 carries (11 att/g) per season. With an implied total of 33 for Friday, facing a youthful Charlotte defense as we mentioned above, Holmberg could be an option for us. I don’t believe pairing Holmberg with a Duke WR is necessary either as no wideout had more than 17 percent of the team’s target share in 2020. Jalon Calhoun, Jake Bobo and Eli Pancol are the listed starters, and would prioritize in that order if looking to roster one. TE1 Jake Marwede is cheap at $3,300 and the Duke system routinely involves the position in the passing game, averaging 27-252-2 over the last seven years.
Charlotte:
Which Chris Reynolds will we see in 2021? The one that completed just 55 percent of his passes last season and ran for all of 36 yards – albeit after suffering a shoulder injury in the opener that lingered the entire season. Or will we see the Reynolds that completed 62 percent of his throws, ran for 767 yards on 153 attempts and combined for 28 total touchdowns like he did in 2019. Reynolds mentioned to the media this week that he put on weight this offseason to protect himself after tearing his labrum vs. App State, and the hope here is that leads to plenty of carries from Reynolds this season where QBs typically top 100 rushing attempts in a season under OC Mark Carney. Just $5,000 on DK and $7,200 on FD feels like a bargain for someone who touches the ball as much as Reynolds does on a given play.
Vegas is expecting Charlotte to put up some points tonight with an implied total of 27 and faces a Duke defense that ranks 125th in returning defense production. If Reynolds gets things going through the air, expect WR1 Victor Tucker to be on the receiving end the majority of the time as he accounted for 27 percent of the target share in 2020, and Charlotte loses three of their top four wideouts from a year ago. Can’t say that I know much about the other starting receivers here in Cameron Dollar or Tre Goode, though the latter is min pricing for a possible cheap stack with Reynolds. Dollar saw his numbers fall last year, but went for 41-599-2 on 66 targets back in 2019. Tight ends are rarely used in this scheme.
At running back, former Iowa transfer Shadrick Byrd will get the nod, but expect a rotation early on in the season as the Charlotte staff likes their depth with backups Calvin Camp, Elijah Turner and Chavion Smith. Charlotte returns three starters on the line from a group that ranked 121st in line yards created last season, but did bring in two transfers as reinforcements. On average, Charlotte RB1s average just 150 carries per season under head coach Will Healy so we probably won’t see a high volume game this week out of Byrd.
Old Dominion @ Wake Forest
Point-Spread: WF -31
O/U Total: 62.5
Weather: 76 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
Old Dominion:
If UConn and New Mexico State are any indication of how teams perform after sitting out a season, we should probably steer clear of ODU tonight with an implied total of 16 points. And those were teams that retained coaching staffs with schemes already in place. Maybe works to the advantage for head coach Ricky Rahne? No starting quarterback named just yet, and probably won’t know until game-time who gets the nod between D.J. Mack (UCF transfer), Hayden Wolff and Stone Smartt. I’m fading regardless of who starts, but still of the belief it will be Mack who offers the best combination of arm talent + mobility that fits this system.
Sophomore Blake Watson gets the surprise nod atop the depth chart at running back, but makes sense given what Rahne has preferred in the past with his backs being proficient pass-catchers, averaging around 25 catches per season. Should still be a split backfield with former starter Elijah Davis as the 209-pound bruiser.
ODU will field a talent receiving corps – I’m just not sure the quarterback(s) will be able to get them the ball consistently tonight. West Virginia transfer Ali Jennings as just 26 career receptions, but is already listed atop the depth chart, and provides great size at 6-foot-2. Tempting at just $3k as potentially their best receiver. He will start opposite sophomore Aaron Moore who posted a 14-194-1 performance on 23 targets back in 2019 vs. Middle Tennessee the last time we saw him. Lean towards the P5 transfer here given his salary if wanting to roster an ODU receiver. RFr Javon Harvey will start in the slot, but is a player I know nothing about. Rahne’s system dating back to his days at Penn State has typically favored the outside receivers so would lean slightly in that direction.
TE1s under Rahne averaged 38 catches over the last six seasons, though I’m unsure of who that will be exactly between 6-foot-6 Donta Anthony or 6-foot-8 Penn State transfer Zack Kuntz. Probably a stat to just file away for later in the season once we have more clarity.
Wake Forest:
Common theme for the Wake Forest offense through much of fall camp was the staff loving their depth entering this season at both the WR and RB positions. Kenneth Walker departs to greener pastures (debatable), but minimal to no drop-off is expected with Christian Beal-Smith returning, and the addition of Michigan transfer Christian Turner. Last time we saw CBS, he ran for 82 yards and a TD on 21 carries vs. Wisconsin in the bowl game. Those 21 carries were an anomaly and not to be expected tonight or throughout this season if the backfield stays healthy with the RB1 averaging 144 carries per season. Head coach Dave Clawson will always split reps in the backfield, so expect to see Turner, Justice Ellice, Ahmani Marshall and Quinton Cooley all see time in the backfield. Wake Forest does return all five starters from last year along the line, so they should be an improved group as a whole.
At receiver, we know who runs the show in Jaquarii Roberson who led the team with 62-926-8 on 87 targets in just nine games, and could get peppered with more balls thrown his way with Donavon Greene out for the season. If the 247 Wake Forest beat writer is accurate in his assessment, WF won’t miss Greene all that much as he called the WR room “stacked” even beyond Roberson with A.T. Perry, Taylor Morin, Donald Stewart and Jahmal Banks all showing out during camp. Perry and Morin would be the top choices here as they are listed as starters, but both come with pricey salaries on DK. Can’t say I have a preference, though Perry doesn’t have an “OR” attached to his name on the depth chart, and should serve as the team’s deep-threat replacement for Greene with an aDOT of 14.2
Last time we saw Sam Hartman, he was chasing down Wisconsin defenders after tossing three 4th quarter interceptions in the bowl game loss. I expect a bounce back performance this week against an Old Dominion defense that ranks 124th in talent rating according to CFB Winning Edge. In last year’s blowout win over Campbell in Week 3, Hartman attempted just 16 passes which would be my lone concern here if this becomes a blowout quickly, but I can envision a scenario where the staff looks to grow Hartman’s confidence after the debacle vs. the Badgers.
South Dakota @ Kansas
Point-Spread: KU -14
O/U Total: 56
Weather: 83 degrees / 12% rain / 6 mph winds
South Dakota:
I don’t get paid enough to write about South Dakota football. Implied total of 21 indicates we could see some points from the Coyotes, but this was a team that went 1-3 last season, averaging just under 18 points a contest. Second-year Carson Camp became the school’s first ever true freshman to start a season opener at quarterback, and played well, averaging over 240 yards per game with a 63 percent completion rate. Camp was third on the team with 30 carries, but finished with -39 net yards so I don’t believe we can count on him netting us any rushing stats.
At 33 passing attempts per game, the receivers should see a decent amount of volume as the underdog tonight, and only one returning starter here with Caleb Vander Esch who led the team with 23-273-1 on 36 targets. Junior Kody Case and sophomore Wesley Eliodor are the other listed starters, though just four catches last season between them. 6th-year senior tight end Brett Samson is the school’s active leader in touchdown catches with 10, and has 64 receptions over the last four seasons. Had just six receptions on 10 targets LY.
Redshirt FR Travis Theis steps into a starting role at running back after rushing for 151 yards on 37 attempts (4.1 YPA). A former Kansas All-Classes OPOY in high school, rushing for over 6,700 yards and 101 touchdowns. Theis and last year’s starting running back combined for 22 targets in just four games so it appears as though the position is active in the passing game.
Kansas:
We know what new head coach Lance Leipold is going to attempt to do tonight – ground and pound on the Coyotes. I was hesistant when discussing Kansas RBs earlier in the offseason and what impact they might have right off the bat in Year 1, but confidence is growing because of an improved offensive line that does bring back all five starters and got an influx of talent with a Notre Dame and Buffalo transfer that will start immediately. At least for this week, Kansas should be able to run the ball successfully against a SDU defense that allowed five yards a pop in 2020.
Velton Gardner is listed atop the depth chart as the most experienced player of the group, but expect to see three running backs extensively tonight with former Michigan transfer Amauri Pesek-Hickson and 3-star freshman Devin Neal who is the future of the program. While the depth chart reads as such, Gardner has missed time in fall camp, and the Kansas 247 beat writer was confident at one point that Neal would be the RB1 at the onset. I’m not certain what to expect out of the rotation, but this is a spot we should dig through in pregame – particularly Neal who is $3k. I wouldn’t discount APH either as he has a 100-yard rushing performance on his resume and is the biggest back of the three at 230 pounds.
No idea who starts at quarterback, and not sure it matters. QB1 for Leipold at Buffalo averaged just 21 passing attempts over the last three seasons. Miles Kendrick seems to be the favorite of the three QBs in the mix, but I don’t have a clue in all honesty.
Kwamie Lassiter is the clear WR1, leading the team with 43-458-2 on 60 targets, but nobody will be spending up to $8,100 on DK with this low of volume to be expected. If you want a piece of the action, and why would you, from a Kansas WR, Buffalo transfer Trevor Wilson at his min salary would be the play. A talented player, Wilson averaged just under 20 YPC last season with three TDs. Steven McBride is the third starter at WR.
Northern Colorado @ Colorado
Point-Spread: Colo -38
O/U Total: 56.5
Weather: 72 degrees / 18% rain / 7 mph winds
Northern Colorado:
Northern Colorado, aka the Fighting McCaffreys, hasn’t played a real football game in over 600 calendar days so who knows what to expect here. There are quite a few P5 transfers here that are listed on the two-deep. Michigan transfer Dylan McCaffrey will get the nod at QB, and will share the backfield with another former Wolverine in RB1 Tru Wilson (a walk-on at Michigan). Kassidy Woods was once projected to be a starting receiver at Washington State, and is currently suing Nick Rolovich for malicious treatment. Dylan Thomas (TCU) and Jonah Morris (Akron) both have some experience. That’s about the extent of my coverage here with an implied total of 9 as Northern Colorado is picked to finish last in their conference by the media.
Colorado:
Unfortunately, we don’t have a ton of evidence of what this coaching staff prefers to do in blowout settings like the one we are about to have here tonight. Freshman Brendon Lewis won the QB battle this offseason by default with the injury to J.T. Shrout but in his brief showing in the bowl game vs. Texas last year, he showed he can do some good things with his legs, rushing for 73 yards on nine attempts. With Shrout now out for an extended period, I’m not sure how much the staff will want Lewis running the ball tonight. Colorado was 38th in the country last season in passing rate at 50.8 percent.
Two clear-cut starters at receiver in Dimitri Stanley and Brenden Rice. Stanley led the team with 20 catches on 29 targets, while Brenden, the son of former legend Jerry Rice, is a former high 3-star recruit that could be on the verge of a breakout this season. Both are priced appropriately so I’m not necessarily going to have high exposure here with the lack of clarity as to how the Colorado staff will approach tonight’s game plan. Third starting WR spot is up for grabs between Laviska’s little brother La’Vontae Shenault and upperclassmen Daniel Arias. Tight ends are rarely featured in this scheme, and TE1 Brady Russell is priced out of our range at $5,600 anyways.
How does Colorado approach the backfield is one of the biggest storylines I’ll be watching tonight, both for DFS and CFF purposes. Reigning Pac-12 POY Jarek Broussard is back after rushing for 895 yards and five TDs in just six games, and finished second in the country in att/g with 26. Alex Fontenot, a former 800-yard rusher is back, and 4-star recruit Ashaad Clayton will factor into the mix as well this season. Fontenot is probably too high a salary for us to use at $6,900, but Clayton is a talented player at $3,300. I just don’t have a great idea of how this distribution will play out as this is still a relatively new coaching staff. Will Broussard get enough volume to reach/surpass his pricing?
Michigan State @ Northwestern:
Point-Spread: NW -3
O/U Total: 46
Weather: 72 degrees / 0% rain / 10 mph winds
Michigan State:
Still no answers as to who will start at quarterback between Payton Thorne and Temple transfer Anthony Russo, and probably won’t find out until pregame warmups. MSU averaged 34 pass attempts per game, fifth-best in the Big Ten, but a lot of that could be attributed to their struggles on the ground. HC Mel Tucker and OC Jay Johnson want to run the football as their pasts would indicate so I don’t have a ton of interest with the QB uncertainty.
I do like their pass-catchers who are moderately priced on DraftKings with Jayden Reed and Jalen Nailor both under $6k. Nailor gets the nod for me not just because of his salary, but his big-play potential at 19.8 yards per catch and an aDOT of 16. Nailor was also consistently mentioned by the Athletic beat writer as the alpha of the room. WR3 is up for grabs, and but Montorie Foster appears to have the leg up on the competition if the Athletic beat writer is accurate. Min pricing at $3k, but with Reed/Nailor garnering 50 percent of the target share, I don’t see myself risking that potential goose egg.
Multiple RBs being utilized has been a staple of Jay Johnson’s offense over the years at Louisiana and Minnesota, so I don’t foresee Kenneth Walker getting 20+ carries like some anticipate. 2019 leading rusher Elijah Collins has had a strong offseason after missing most of last year due to COVID, and another sophomore in Jordan Simmons will factor into the mix also. The offensive line was the reason for Michigan State’s woeful rushing results last season, but four starters are back from a group that has increased depth according to coaches, and added an Arkansas State transfer who will immediately start at left tackle. Confidence seems high this group will improve.
Implied total of 21 doesn’t bode much confidence here so I won’t have a ton of exposure to Michigan State players, but Nailor/Walker would top the list if choosing. Northwestern brings back just 41 percent of the defensive production from last season, but ranks 12th in projected defensive SP+.
Northwestern:
The Wildcats ranked 91st in passing rate last season, and will start a former 5-star in Hunter Johnson at QB who has played poorly during his career whenever given the chance. Johnson adds some mobility, and Northwestern’s QB1 averages around 84 carries per season on the ground, but that’s not enough to warrant much consideration here. Last year’s starter Peyton Ramsey topped 25 fantasy points just twice in seven games.
Brutal blow to the entire offense with Cam Porter going down for the season as he was expected to see 20+ carries on a weekly basis. With Porter out, most indications are a 3-man rotation with Evan Hull, Bowling Green transfer Andrew Clair and true FR 3-star Anthony Tyus. Hull will get the first nod tonight, and has provide to be capable with a small sample size, averaging seven yards a carry for his career. Northwestern’s offensive line struggled last season, ranking 120th in line yards, but is expected to improve dramatically with future NFL Draft pick Peter Skoronski. MSU held opponents to under four yards a carry last season, so expect a battle in the trenches.
Just one name sticks out at receiver in Kansas transfer Stephon Robinson who caught 45 passes for 727 yards in 2019. At least one receiver for NW has typically been fantasy relevant, with the WR1 averaging over 50 receptions per season. Berkeley Holman and Bryce Kirtz join Robinson in the starting lineup, but won’t get consideration from me.
South Dakota State @ Colorado State
Point-Spread: Colo St -3
O/U Total: 52.5
Weather: 71 degrees / 16% rain / 5 mph winds
South Dakota State:
If targeting any of the FCS teams tonight, I suppose this would be the one with an implied total of 25.
Last year’s starter Mark Gronowski will miss all of the 2021 season, so former South Florida transfer Chris Oladokun will step in as the starter tonight. He appeared in 12 games back in 2019 with eight starters, completing 62 percent of his passes for 2,064 yards and 18 touchdowns. SDSU likes to get their QBs involved on the ground as well, averaging around nine carries a contest. Gronowski had seven rushing TDs in 10 games.
Same set of RBs with Pierre Strong and Isaiah Davis sharing the workload. Strong led the Jackrabbits in carries by a considerable margin despite playing in one less game, but Davis was far more effective, averaging over eight yards a carry with 10 touchdowns compared to just three for Strong. They almost nullify each other with Strong getting most of the work in the passing game with 20 catches on 25 targets, compared to just nine for Davis. This a team that likes to keep the ball on the ground at a 58 percent clip.
Jaxon Janke and Jadon Janke are the top two options in the passing game, combining for 11 of the 16 touchdowns through the air last season. No other wide receiver had more than one TD. Practically equivalent between the two in targets (53 / 52). Landon Wolf, an Oklahoma State grad transfer, is the third listed starter.
Colorado State’s defense ranks 58th in projected SP+ and returns every starter on that side of the ball, so a bit surprised Vegas thinks South Dakota State can score that much.
Colorado State:
We know what head coach Steve Addazio wants to accomplish on offense, running the ball at a 55 percent clip last season, and that number will likely increase with new starting QB Todd Centeio who offers very little as a passer, completing just 40 percent of his throws at 5.8 yards per attempt. Where Centeio could thrive is as a runner, and Addazio did allow his QBs to run at Boston College where Tyler Murphy had 181 carries back in 2014, and Patrick Towles tallied 115 attempts in 2016.
I spoke openly earlier in the offseason about Colorado State returning five starters along the offensive line, but the group was one of the worst in the country last season so I questioned if that is even a good thing. We get a 4-man backfield to start the year with Boston College transfer David Bailey listed atop the depth chart. Practice reports indicate that we probably won’t have a “workhorse” A.J. Dillon type at least to start the season, but would give Bailey the nod here given pricing and his name sitting in front of the others (great analysis I know). Don’t expect a transition period either with Bailey’s familiarity with the system which helps.
The Rams get just about everyone back at receiver and tight end, specifically Dante Wright and Trey McBride who dominated the target share last year at right around 60 percent. Given that, and Centeio throwing the ball, I won’t consider any of the other CSU pass-catchers available to us. E.J. Scott is the third option in the passing game but is priced out at $5,200.