North Carolina @ Virginia Tech
Point-Spread: UNC -5.5
O/U Total: 64
Weather: 75 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
North Carolina:
Those that have followed me the last few years already know I’m locking in Josh Downs tomorrow as one of my WR options. A consensus Top 15 college fantasy receiver in 2021, the 5-foot-10 sophomore steps into an enviable situation for production in Phil Longo’s system where the slot receiver has averaged 72 receptions and eight touchdowns over the last seven seasons. We saw what Downs is capable of last season in the bowl game vs. Texas A&M with 4-91-2.
The Heels will be without Beau Corrales on Saturday, but should have ample depth to step in with Emery Simmons, Antoine Green and Khafre Brown all in the rotation. I have them ranked in order of projected fantasy production this week, but there is a significant drop in salary from Simmons to Green due to Green potentially splitting time with the speedy younger brother of Dyami. Brown has been banged up throughout fall camp so not sure as of now how much run he will receive, which makes Green an enticing candidate. Sophomore Justin Olson is listed as the primary backup to Downs in the slot but has received quite a bit of praise this summer and offers positional versatility being able to lineup outside as well.
Tight end usage is typically minimal in Longo’s system, but don’t completely discount TE1 Garrett Walston as the staff has made a point of emphasis to get the position more involved in the passing game for much of the offseason.
Ty Chandler is too cheap on DK not to play in most lineups, stepping into a situation behind a very good run blocking offensive line that returns four starters. His ability to catch passes – 58 receptions in four years – is an added bonus for a system that loves to throw to their RBs. Longo prefers to divvy up the carries between his top two backs as we saw last year with Javonte Williams and Michael Carter, so don’t discount incoming FR Caleb Hood as a viable lineup candidate. 10 carries per game is the seven year average for RB2s in this system, and we’ve never seen Chandler as a workhorse running back in the past, so Hood could potentially see considerable time on the field.
What more can be said about Sam Howell that hasn’t been said already. Maybe the inexperienced receiving corps will limit his production in 2021, but the Vegas implied total of 35 shows confidence in the Heels to put up points on Friday. Howell has been exceptional vs. the Hokies with over 600 yards passing and eight touchdowns with zero interceptions in two meetings.
Virginia Tech
Expect Virginia Tech to keep the ball on the ground vs. North Carolina on Friday with a stable of running backs and dual-threat quarterback Braxton Burmeister taking over at the helm. The Hokies offensive line is expected to be amongst the conference’s best groups, and this was an offense that put up nearly 500 yards and 45 points against this UNC defense a year ago. Burmeister leaves much to be desired as a passer, but is a tremendous athlete, clocking in at a reported 22.5 MPH which is tops on the team. He’s had trouble staying healthy in the past so the staff could be cautious with his touches, but he did average right around 10 carries last season when on the field.
Jalen Holston, Raheem Blackshear, Keshawn King are expected to be in a timeshare in the backfield to begin the season. Praise has been consistent in fall camp regarding Holston, and has improved his body reportedly over the last calendar year. Cheap enough at $4,200 that he’s in the player pool for us this week, but I’d refrain from expecting we see anything like Khalil Herbert a year ago from anyone in this group.
The Hokies can go nose to nose with any team in the ACC with their collection of pass-catchers of Tayvion Robinson, Tre Turner and tight end James Mitchell, but this is a bad matchup. The UNC secondary should be one of the better groups in the country, featuring Tony Grimes and Storm Duck, and I’m not confident just yet in Burmeister improving as a passer. The $6k range that they are in on DK is just too pricey.
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