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Miami (Ohio) vs. Miami (FL)
Point-Spread: Mia-FL -17.5
O/U Total: 46
Implied Score: Mia-FL 32.5 – Mia-OH 14
Weather: 85 degrees / 43% rain / 7 mph winds
Miami (OH):
Top Play(s) – WR Miles Marshall ($5,100) Unlikely to have a ton of exposure from the lowest implied total on the slate among FBS teams, but we’ve seen a good deal of success of the last few years from the RedHawks WR1. Over 20 FPPG the last three seasons on average between Jack Sorenson and Mac Hippenhammer, with both hitting the 30% target share threshold we love. Former Indiana transfer Miles Marshall is the likely candidate to be WR1 in 2023, given that he’s the only returnee to have caught a pass last season.
Fade – RBs. HC Chuck Martin ALWAYS employs a committee approach in the backfield, with the RB1 averaging just 10.1 FPPG over the last nine seasons. We don’t want to start Miami-Ohio running backs in MACtion DFS, so we sure as hell ain’t playing them against an ACC opponent.
Bargain Bin – WR Joe Wilkins Jr. ($4,500) While the aforementioned Marshall is the perceived WR1, the RedHawks did hit the portal to bolster the wide receiver room with former Notre Dame transfer Joe Wilkins Jr. In Brett Gabbert’s last full season as a starter, the WR2 for Miami (OH) did average 7.5 targets per game back in 2021, so potential for fantasy relevance from the second option in the passing game.
Pivot Play – WR Gage Larvadain ($5,100) Very surprised to see Larvadain’s pricing this high, but he was productive at the Division III level, catching 59 passes last season at SE Louisiana. This passing offense usually funnels to the outside receivers, though, favoring Marshall/Wilkins, so I’m unlikely to have any/much exposure there.
Best of the Rest – QB Brett Gabbert ($5,800) Probably not wise for Gabbert to throw gas on the fire with his weekly comments, calling his school the “real” Miami, considering the Hurricanes’ defensive line is deemed the strength of the unit, ranking 30th in rush defense and 27th in creating pressure in 2022. Miami (OH) will return three starters on the OL. The Hurricanes are also top 10 in returning defensive production from a year ago. With an entirely revamped WR corps, we’ll avoid Gabbert and wait for easier matchups to roster him down the line.
Injury Notes – n/a
Miami:
Top Play(s) – WR Colbie Young ($5,700) Young and Restrepo’s salaries should be flopped here. Young will serve as the team’s WR1 to start 2023, coming off a strong offseason where he’s reshaped his body and cut body fat. Six 1,000-yard receivers in the last nine years under OC Shannon Dawson.
Fade – RB Henry Parrish Jr. ($6,200) Hopefully this fade doesn’t backfire because Parrish was very good last season in the non-conference portion of the schedule, scoring 60 fantasy points in the first two games. The difference in 2023 is added depth in the Miami backfield with Nebraska transfer Ajay Allen and incoming 4-star FR Mark Fletcher, both of whom impressed in fall camp. More rotation + move to Air Raid offense = less opportunities for Parrish.
Bargain Bin – WR Nathaniel Joseph ($3,000) Joseph made a strong impression during spring ball at the slot receiver position where he displayed his quick burst, acceleration, and shiftiness. That culminated in a strong spring game performance where Joseph had a 79-yard touchdown reception from fellow freshman Emory Williams. He probably won’t start Week 1 with Xavier Restrepo locked into that job, but we’re expecting him to get rotational reps at a position where Miami lacks depth and high-end talent.
Pivot Play – WR Xavier Restrepo ($6,900) Restrepo and Colbie Young’s salaries should be flopped, but the veteran slot receiver is safely among the top two options in the passing game. Tight end spot has talent, but dealt with injuries, while the coaching staff hit the portal hard to find a partner for Young on the outside. Not sure the WR3 position is even settled at the moment. Restrepo will see low ownership because of his inflated pricing.
Best of the Rest – QB Tyler Van Dyke ($7,600) There were some rumors that Tyler Van Dyke was not 100% heading into this week’s matchup, but those seemed to have been squashed with some of the recent comments made to the media. TVD is one of the safer selections on the slate at the QB position in our minds, with Miami moving to an Air Raid style offense in 2023 under new OC Shannon Dawson, formerly of Houston. In the last seven seasons as an offensive play-caller/assistant, Dawson’s QB1 has combined to average just under 28 FPPG. Miami (OH) also lost their best cornerback to the transfer portal in the offseason. Limited upside because of TVD’s lack of mobility, but high floor. WR3 opposite Colbie Young should be Jacolby George ($4,600) who has reportedly “excited the folks in the building” but we heard those comments last year.
Injury Notes – TE Elijah Arroyo ($3,000) The talented former 4-star tight end dealt with injury during fall camp but seems to be on track to play Friday. TE1 under Dawson avg. just 2.75 targets per game in four years at Houston.
Central Michigan vs. Michigan State
Point-Spread: MSU -15
O/U Total: 49.5
Implied Score: MSU 32 – CMU 17
Weather: 71 degrees / 0% rain / 9 mph winds
Central Michigan:
Here’s what we know. There is an OR on the depth chart between QB Bert Emanuel ($6,000) and backup Jase Bauer ($6,600). Does DK know something we don’t pricing Bauer over Emanuel? We also read that in the final scrimmage, it was Emanuel taking the first reps. From what has been gleaned over the offseason, neither QB impressed much with their passing abilities and still remains a potential two-QB situation. We know the upside of Emanuel with his rushing skills, but that was displayed in the MAC. Not on the road against a B1G opponent.
As for the rest of the parts. Emanuel completed four passes in four games last November, so we’re not interested whatsoever in the passing game components. The projected starting receivers combined for five catches last season. We were slightly interested in the running game is Jase Bauer got the QB1 job. Figuring he’d pass more, would we have seen a Lew Nichols-like workload? Dreaded OR on the depth chart between Marion Lukes ($4,900) and Myles Bailey ($4,500), though we don’t have either player projected to score more than 10 points on Friday. CMU does return three starters on the OL. We’ll probably just wait for MACtion to roster any Chips.
Michigan State:
Top Play(s) – WR Tre Mosley ($6,300) Mosley is about the only known commodity right now on the Michigan State offense. Would not get confused in thinking Mosley is a Jayden Reed or Keon Coleman-like player. He’s not. But 74% conversion rate on targets, just one drop, and four touchdowns in 2022. As dependable as they come, and the clear WR1 for the Spartans.
Fade – QB Noah Kim ($9,400) Maybe by the time this is posted, MSU will have put out a depth chart. As of now, we don’t have a great sense as to who QB1 here is, and the projection of 15.5 fpts for Noah Kim as the highest-priced QB on the slate takes him out of consideration for me. There’s also a strong chance we see multiple options on Friday so we’re even less interested.
Bargain Bin – WR Alante Brown ($3,000) We’ll have to update a projection here, but it sounds as though the former Nebraska transfer has established himself as the WR2 for the Spartans behind Mosley. Brown is a former 4-star talent, but never found his footing with the Cornhuskers with just 19 receptions in 2022. WR2s in this system under OC Jay Johnson don’t see heavy volume – just 67 targets per season – but have hit 20% target share in each of last three years. Notable if Brown has in fact won the WR2 job.
Pivot Play – TE Maliq Carr ($3,600) Carr closed last season with consecutive double-digit fantasy performances and was noted by the team beat writer as having a very strong offseason. Former Purdue transfer and basketball player, Carr is one of the best athletes on the team, though it is not a high-volume position in this scheme. 2.75 targets per game on average for the TE1, but the reviews were rampant for Carr in camp.
Best of the Rest – RBs. M-E-S-S-Y. DraftKings seems to think that Jalen Berger will retain his starting position. We’re skeptical given MSU brought in multiple transfers at the position in Nathan Carter (UConn) and Jaren Mangham (USF) for added depth, or potentially take the starting role from Berger who was ineffective after the first month of last season. MSU returns 71% of their offensive line production from last year, while CMU was 44th in rush play success rate defensively. 14th in returning production on defense, so they won’t be a pushover in the trenches.
Injury Notes – n/a
Louisville vs. Georgia Tech
Point-Spread: UL -8
O/U Total: 49.5
Implied Score: UL 29 – G-Tech 21
Weather: Dome
Louisville:
Top Play(s) – WR Jamari Thrash ($6,700) The coveted WR1 in Jeff Brohm’s system is ALWAYS a source of fantasy goodness. 83 receptions and 11 touchdowns per season over the last nine years. And we know where to look as well because eight of those nine WR1s have played on the outside. That’s Jamari Thrash, the Georgia State transfer, who Brohm already confirmed is playing the same spot as Charlie Jones and David Bell in year’s past. Let’s ride.
Fade – WR Ahmari Huggins-Bruce ($5,900) AHB may show up on the first line of the depth chart, but let’s see the factors working against him. New coaching staff means new viewpoints on players. Louisville brought in four transfer wideouts over the offseason, one of which is a highly sought-after FCS transfer in Kevin Coleman ($3,000) who will also see considerable playing time.
Bargain Bin – WR Chris Bell ($3,700) Thrash got a lot of the fall camp headlines, but Bell was a close second when following the practice reports. When a Jeff Brohm offense is clicking, the WR2 holds fantasy value, generally averaging around 4.6 receptions and 6.75 targets per game over the last nine seasons. No official depth chart, so we don’t know for certain where Bell slots in, but we’re anticipating him being a starter.
Pivot Play – RB Jawhar Jordan ($6,900) You know it’s a light slate for RBs when Jordan is the highest priced player at the position. A 14.6-point projection at this price doesn’t scream jam Jordan into your lineups, but here’s what we like about this play. Georgia Tech ranked 116th last season in both Rush Play PPA defensively and success rate. Despite being a pass-first offense, the RB1 is featured quite a bit in this system, generating 42% volume share and averaging around 34 targets per season in the passing game. FWIW – we know for certain that Louisville also likes their depth at the position with speedster Maurice Turner ($4,500) so seeing a rotation isn’t out of the cards.
Best of the Rest – QB Jack Plummer ($7,900) Don’t love a 21-point projection at this pricing, but Plummer is probably one of the safer bets at the QB positions on the slate. High-volume passing scheme, throwing it 55.6% of the time. Plummer is also very familiar with the system, being that he played with Brohm at Purdue at one point in time. A small bit of rushing upside as well. TE Josh Lifson ($3,300) will start at tight end but expect a rotation of possibly four different players. Lifson did catch two touchdowns in the spring game.
Injury Notes – n/a
Georgia Tech:
Top Play(s) – WR Malik Rutherford ($5,000) The 5-foot-9 sophomore is our projected WR1 after a standout spring game with seven receptions for 154 yards and two scores. We also really like the starting slot receivers under new OC Buster Faulkner who had three wideouts hit 100+ targets in a season at his previous coaching stops with Arkansas State and Southern Miss. And typically, those were the slot receivers.
Fade – WR Dominick Blaylock ($5,700) Just for reference, FanDuel listed Blaylock at 35.5 receiving yards for his prop and is off the board because everyone hammered the under. No official depth chart as of writing this, but we’re not sure the former Georgia transfer is even a starter here. Let alone if this passing game is any good. We’ll look to cheaper options.
Bargain Bin – WR Christian Leary ($3,200) No depth chart officially as of Wednesday so we’re not 100% on the starters here. But have to think Leary, a former Alabama transfer and high 4-star recruit, is at least among the top four receivers on the roster. There’s also a chance Leary starts in the slot and kicks Rutherford outside, which we like from a scheme perspective.
Pivot Play – QB Haynes King ($6,200) I won’t have much exposure here, but this is what we know Haynes King can do – run. What else do we know? Faulkner likes to run his QBs, as proven during his time at Arkansas State with Justice Hansen (remember that name?) 400+ yards and 13 combined touchdowns in two seasons as a starter. Running QBs always raise the floor, no matter how questionable their passing abilities are.
Best of the Rest – RBs. Don’t love the rushing production history from Faulker’s resume. Zero 1,000-yard rushers in the last nine years and less than 30% volume share as it typically is a split backfield. Don’t foresee there being a workhorse between Dontae Smith and former Louisville transfer Treyvion Cooley. Louisville was 63rd in rush play success rate defensively in 2022.
Injury Notes – n/a
Missouri State vs. Kansas
Point-Spread: n/a
O/U Total: n/a
Implied Score: n/a
Weather: 85 degrees / 0% rain / 10 mph winds
Missouri State:
No official game odds makes this tough to project here, but Missouri State does bring some former P5 talent to this matchup. Starting with someone familiar with the state of Kansas in RB Jacardia Wright ($3,000) – formerly of Kansas State – who led the Bears with 704 yards and nine touchdowns a year ago. Over 50% of the team’s volume share in just 10 games played is a very high amount. Can he run on Kansas? The Jayhawks are just 63rd in defensive returning production and were 121st in rush play success rate in 2022. Might be worth a gamble at min pricing. QB Jacob Clark ($5,300) is new to the program as a first-year starter but another P5 transfer coming over from Minnesota as a 3-star recruit. Have not seen him actually play, but did rush for 10 touchdowns as a high school senior so would imagine he’s got some mobility to his game. Missouri State is replacing its entire WR corps, so would probably avoid that potential disaster given the unknowns.
Kansas:
Top Play(s) – QB Jalon Daniels ($9,000) I considered an n/a here for Kansas’ top play – that’s how uninterested I am with Jayhawk options for this slate. Daniels is the straw that stirs the drink, but I truly question how much he’ll play in a potential blowout considering that he was dealing with back tightness throughout much of fall camp. That means a near 100% chance we see a considerable amount of backup QB Jason Bean ($5,000) on Friday. Enough to consider playing him over Daniels given the cost difference? I can’t get there…yet.
Fade – Multiple Kansas WRs Similar strategy that we’ll also mention with Stanford below. The Jayhawks threw the ball just 45% of the time last year, and potentially have a less-than 100% healthy starting QB here. While the Jayhawks do spread the wealth between Luke Grimm, Quentin Skinner and Lawrence Arnold – all between 12-22% target share in 2022 – rarely do we see two KU receivers hit 15+ fantasy points in the same game. Kansas will put up points, so having exposure is important, but not multiple wideouts in one lineup.
Bargain Bin – TE Mason Fairchild ($3,800) Reasonable pricing for a tight end that finished third on the team in targets (43) and tied for team lead in touchdowns (6). Fairchild’s involvement in the passing game took off in November, hitting four or more receptions in each of the final four games to close the year. Does that hotstreak continue into 2023?
Pivot Play – RB Daniel Hishaw Jr. ($6,100) In Kansas’s blowout victory last season in their Week 1 matchup, starting running back Devin Neal ($6,500) had all of four carries. Strong likelihood we see that exact scenario play out this week as Kansas boasts considerable depth in the backfield in 2023, namely Daniel Hishaw who is returning from an injury that kept him out most of last season. Kansas returns four starters along the OL this season and a lot of talk during the offseason was centered around improving the run game. No better way to do that than against an overmatched FCS opponent.
Best of the Rest – RB Dylan McDuffie ($5,100) A real longshot, probably not realistic play, would be former Buffalo and Georgia Tech transfer Dylan McDuffie who is already familiar with Lance Leipold’s system during his time with the Buffs. Looking back to last season, three different running backs scored touchdowns, with nobody getting more than eight rushing attempts.
Injury Notes – Pay attention to any potential Jalon Daniels news.
Stanford vs. Hawaii
Point-Spread: Stanford -7
O/U Total: 58.5
Implied Score: Stan 32.5 – Haw 26
Weather: 78 degrees / 14% rain / 22 mph winds
Stanford:
Top Play(s) – RB E.J. Smith ($5,700) This play comes with a caveat that should be noted. Backup RB Casey Filkins ($4,600) was getting heavy run with the first-team offense during fall camp. Why? Not exactly sure, but Smith is still expected to be plenty involved in the entirety of the offense, including potentially at wide receiver. Back in 2019, new head coach Troy Taylor’s RB1 at Sacramento State posted 70 receptions in a season. His starter last year, Cameron Skattebo, now at Arizona State, had 31 receptions. Maybe Smith doesn’t see 15 carries, but 15 touches is well within range of outcomes.
Fade – Multiple Stanford WRs Three of last year’s top four leading receivers are all gone, and this is an offensive scheme that does incorporate the tight end and running backs heavily in the passing game. Plus, we’re admittedly not 100% – though we have a lean – on the QB situation. One Stanford receiver is fine, not two.
Bargain Bin – TE Ben Yurosek ($3,800) Taylor had an outstanding FCS tight end in Marshel Martin who combined for 25 receiving touchdowns the last three seasons, and his 15.3 FPPG in 2022 was higher than some guy named Brock Bowers. Like Bowers, Taylor showed he’ll also give a few carries to his tight end around the goal line as Martin has a rushing TD in 2021 and 2022. Stock up for Ben Yurosek with the coaching change.
Pivot Play – QB Justin Lamson ($8,800) I’d imagine Lamson sees very little ownership given price and the released depth chart that did include ORs. While Taylor stated he isn’t ready to announce a starter, Lamson was getting the majority of first-team reps the last few weeks of fall camp. Healthy projection of 25+ points here for a Syracuse transfer that, at one point, potentially could’ve beaten out Garrett Shrader for the QB1 job with the Orange. Decent runner too.
Best of the Rest – WR Tiger Bachmeier ($4,400) Rave reviews for the true freshman in fall camp, running mostly with the starters. Would choose between him or leading returnee John Humphreys ($4,700) if rolling with a Stanford receiver.
Injury Notes – n/a
Hawaii:
Top Play(s) – WR Pofele Ashlock ($4,900) Still too cheap here after his performance a week ago vs. Vanderbilt, converting on all seven of his targets for 127 yards and a touchdown. When the Run-N-Shoot is clicking on all cylinders, 100 targets are all but guaranteed for the starting slot back, and Ashlock played 100% of his snaps inside. We don’t view his performance last week as a one-off, the redshirt FR is an Ash-LOCK for our lineups on Friday.
Fade – See injury notes.
Bargain Bin – WR Alex Perry ($3,200) Should Jonah Panoke sit again, freshman Alex Perry should be the beneficiary as he was last Saturday with four receptions on five targets. It should be noted that Chuuky Hines ($4,100) did run more routes vs. Vanderbilt than Perry, but one was far more productive.
Pivot Play – RB Tylan Hines ($5,400) Not a promising Week 0 opener for Tylan Hines owners with just nine carries for minimal yardage and giving way to backups once inside the red-zone. What to expect moving forward or an overreaction to one game? Vanderbilt’s strength on defense is the rush defense. Not the case for Stanford who ranks 103rd in returning production defensively and were 131st in rush play success rate in 2022. What we need from Hines here is more usage in the passing game with just one target. RBs aren’t usually involved in the passing game with the RnS, but Hines is very talented in that area. He’ll see low ownership on Friday.
Best of the Rest – WR Steven McBride ($6,100) All good signs from the former Kansas transfer, leading Hawaii in targets (9), touchdowns (2), receptions (7), routes run and aDOT (14.8). Big-play threat in a passing offense that emphasized the deep ball during fall camp. Because of the rebuilding Stanford defense, I like differentiating with a Hawaii stack potentially with QB Brayden Schager ($7,900) because that’ll hit big if the Run-N-Shoot is back in full. Game script works here, though it should be noted 20+ MPH winds are in the forecast. TE Greyson Morgan ($3,400) was third in targets (6) against Vandy behind Ashlock and McBride.
Injury Notes – WR Jonah Panoke ($3,700) No injury tag here for Panoke, but the projected starter didn’t play a single offensive snap vs. Vanderbilt and does have a history of injuries. Doubt we’ll get word pregame, and Hawaii seems to have their top two solidified at WR.
