Florida Atlantic vs. Michigan State
Point-Spread: MSU -13.5
O/U Total: 45.5
Implied Score: MSU 29.5 – FAU 16
Weather: 78 degrees / 64% rain / 12 mph winds
Florida Atlantic:
Top Play(s) – A Wide Receiver. No depth chart currently, and there’s not going to be one leading up to kickoff unfortunately. The WR1 for HC Tom Herman has been a source of fantasy excellence, particularly the slot position. Unfortunately, we have no idea who that will be if no depth chart is released. Last year, LaJohntay Wester was FAU’s top fantasy option, as he led the entire country in targets (152). The slot receiver in Herman’s offenses has finished as the team’s WR1 in five of the last seven seasons now, averaging 21.3 FPPG and hitting the 100-target threshold in all five years. So, we know where to look, just a matter of who that will be. Two options for us – WR Omari Hayes ($3,000) or WR Milan Tucker ($4,500). Hayes opened eyes in the spring game with seven receptions in the first half. He’s also not listed on the Ourlads depth chart. Tucker, an Appalachian State transfer, is listed as the top slot option and is one of the fastest players on the team. Guessing game.
Fade – RBs. Will be a split backfield most likely between CJ Campbell ($4,100) and Zuberi Mobley ($4,500). Herman also consistently praised the two younger options in the backfield in Xavier Terrell and Gemari Sands, likely indicating they’ll get some attempts as well. I’ll wait for AAC play to begin before considering this backfield.
Bargain Bin – WR EJ Horton ($3,800) While no depth chart, FAU in their team game notes did list offensive players to watch. The three receivers listed were Hayes, Tucker and Horton – a Marshall transfer that played with Cam Fancher. Trying to read the tea leaves. FWIW – we would limit our lineups to just one FAU receiver and not stack.
Pivot Play – QB Cam Fancher ($6,000) Those that played DFS last year know Cam Fancher is not a good quarterback. He chose to leave Marshall because of how much the fanbase heckled him (I’d do the same). This is a better fit schematically in a system under Herman that will let the QB utilize his legs, which Fancher does well. 26% volume share on average go to the quarterback alone. So, while we’re unlikely to roster Fancher, any dual-threat QB deserves some consideration.
Best of the Rest – WR Marlyn Johnson ($5,100) The Buffalo transfer is likely the third starting receiver on the outside. Experienced but probably too pricey. Assuming Johnson is the WR3, that spot averages just 3.5 targets per game historically under Herman.
Injury Notes – n/a
Michigan State:
Top Play(s) – RB Nathan Carter ($6,300) Running backs are the featured position in Jonathan Smith’s offense, with the RB1 averaging around 18 FPPG and 192 rushing attempts per season over the last decade. The small debate in the offseason was who was RB1 between the incumbent Carter and UMass transfer RB Kay’Ron Lynch Adams ($4,900) who rushed for 1,000 yard last year. We give the nod to Carter here and all camp reports were positive surrounding this duo. Don’t stack the backfield as MSU could have some bumps in the road with a completely rebuilt offensive line.
Fade – WR Alante Brown ($5,400) Brown is likely WR4 or WR5 for the Spartans but not priced like it. Easy fade.
Bargain Bin – TE Jack Velling ($4,100) Smith brought over his star tight end from Oregon State in the offseason and there’s a small chance Velling could lead MSU in targets in 2024. He finished as TE17 in college fantasy last year with 29 receptions and eight touchdowns.
Pivot Play – MSU Receiver. This room is a complete unknown outside of returning starter Montorie Foster. We assume he’ll garner a decent target share, but there’s a ton of moving pieces here considering MSU brings back just 39% of its receiving production from a year ago. Freshman Nick Marsh should start at one boundary spot, and was a spring game standout with over 100+ receiving yards in the game. Jaron Glover was highlighted by the beat writer as a potential breakout. Do not stack this room as Smith has not had a wide receiver finish inside the top 70 at the position in college fantasy. This is a run-first scheme.
Best of the Rest – QB Aidan Chiles ($7,700) Chiles is the third best option if not playing Jackson Arnold or Josh Hoover at QB or superflex. The sophomore quarterback is immensely talented, and he displayed glimpses of his potential in limited time last season, completing 69% of his throws for 309 yards and seven total touchdowns. This is also a quarterback that rushed for over 1,300 yards during his high school career, though this system does not typically design a ton of rushing packages for QB.
Injury Notes – n/a
Temple vs. Oklahoma
Point-Spread: OU -42.5
O/U Total: 59.5
Implied Score: OU 51.5 – Temp 8.5
Weather: 78 degrees / 64% rain / 12 mph winds
Temple:
Four-game slate so we are forced to consider a Temple player or two, but the low implied team total and no option being projected to score more than 12 fantasy points means we’ll need to keep our exposure low. QB and RBs are out of our player pool by default, but some potential options with the pass-catchers. Former Colorado State transfer WR Dante Wright ($4,800) is the most experienced of the bunch, leading the team with 77 targets in 2023, and did have a strong close to the year with 12 receptions in the final two weeks. WR John Adams ($3,500) was injured in the spring but is listed atop the depth chart. He showed last year to be capable of a difference-making performance with 10-127-1 on 13 targets in Week 6 vs. UTSA. Tight ends have been a focal point with David Martin-Robinson and Jordan Smith, who combined for over 100 targets last season. Both have since graduated, but sophomore TE Reese Clark ($3,400) had a standout spring game with 87 yards on five receptions. He’s listed in an OR situation with TE Landon Morris ($3,600), a former Syracuse transfer and converted receiver. I’d anticipate both playing a good deal with the question marks at receiver, and the historical evidence of Temple utilizing the TE position.
Oklahoma:
Top Play(s) – QB Jackson Arnold ($9,100) Long-term, I think we could run into some issues with Arnold and this Oklahoma offense, but they shouldn’t have any problems putting up points on Temple this weekend. The OL in front of Arnold is completely rebuilt and suffered several injuries during the spring. But even without Nic Anderson who won’t play on Friday, the skill position talent for OU is among the best in the country. Arnold is our highest projected QB on the slate and sixth highest for the entire weekend. I’m going to build my lineups around Arnold and Josh Hoover at QB for this slate.
Fade – WR Andrel Anthony ($3,000) Cop out answer here given the price but rule of thumb for me, especially in a blowout scenario, is to have a one game buffer for a guy coming off injury. Brent Venables announced Anthony would be available on Friday but is coming off a torn ACL that kept him out most of the offseason. It was just recently that he was cleared for full go, and the beat writer said Anthony has “practiced, to some extent, since the start of fall camp.”
Bargain Bin – TE Bauer Sharp ($3,500) Sharp was spotlighted by the Oklahoma beat writer as a player to watch on Friday night, saying the college football world is about to get to know him very quickly. The 6-foot-5 FCS transfer caught 29 passes last season for SE Louisiana, playing over half of his snaps at receiver according to PFF. Offensive coordinator Seth Littrell utilized his TE1 in the last three years with UNT, averaging 47 targets per season.
Pivot Play – RB Jovantae Barnes ($5,100) Earlier in the offseason, we thought this backfield was settled with Gavin Sawchuk as the solidified RB1. Seems we now have a 1A / 1B situation as this staff remains infatuated with Barnes as he’s now fully healthy – something he was not most of last year. Lessening your Sawchuk exposure and getting some Barnes shares in your lineups might be wise. Expect 4-star recruit RB Taylor Tatum ($3,300) to also see reps.
Best of the Rest – WR Deion Burks ($6,900) This will likely be the lowest salary Burks will have all year, even when Nic Anderson is in the lineup. Burks had arguably the best spring performance of any player in college football, racking up 174 yards and two touchdowns on five receptions, showing strong rapport with Arnold. WR Brenan Thompson ($4,500) can be a pivot play or stacked with Burks as he’ll start in place of Anderson. Arguably the fastest player on the team that averaged over 34 YPC in 2023. WR Jalil Farooq ($6,500) is probably too expensive for my liking and was underwhelming a year ago, failing to assume the WR1 mantle most predicted, but is still a proven starting receiver that will have low ownership.
Injury Notes – WR Nic Anderson ($6,200) Announced out by HC Brent Venables.
Western Michigan vs. Wisconsin
Point-Spread: Wisc -23.5
O/U Total: 55.5
Implied Score: Wisc 39.5 – WMU 16
Weather: 78 degrees / 64% rain / 12 mph winds
Western Michigan:
Top Play(s) – WR Kenneth Womack ($4,800) Senior receiver Kenny Womack was one of 44 players to hit 100 targets for the season with 28% of Western Michigan’s target share. All that volume resulted in just 12.6 FPPG and one touchdown, averaging just 9.1 yards per catch with a 5.1-yard aDOT. Preferred on DK over FD because of the full point PPR settings. WMU will be in a trailing position so Womack could hit value just by pure volume.
Fade – QB Hayden Wolff ($6,100) Wolff is the second-lowest QB projection on the slate, just ahead of whatever Temple decides to trout out under center. He’ll have some value once we get to MACtion, but not starting a non-running QB against a good Wisconsin defense.
Bargain Bin – WR Malique Dieudonne ($3,500) Likely WR3 behind Womack and WR2 Anthony Sambucci at a much lower price. Had a good catch rate last season at 73% and game script should work in his favor. Realistically, we’re not starting anyone Friday besides Womack and…
Pivot Play – RB Jalen Buckley ($5,000) Is there an argument to play Buckley against a B1G defense? He did it last year against another P4 opponent in Syracuse, rushing for 87 yards and a touchdown. Against Iowa the following week, just 30 yards on 14 attempts. Something to remember moving forward – new OC Walt Bell does not have a good track record for high-end fantasy RB production. Just once in the last decade has Bell’s RB1 hit 200 carries in a season.
Best of the Rest – WR Anthony Sambucci ($4,500) Third on the team last season in targets, likely assuming the WR2 role behind Womack. RB Jaden Nixon ($3,500) has P4 experience, transferring in from Oklahoma State, and we just mentioned Bell prefers to spread the carries around a bit more than last year’s OC.
Injury Notes – n/a
Wisconsin:
Top Play(s) – WR Will Pauling ($5,200) Will Pauling continued the long-standing tradition of slot receivers thriving under Longo, with 73 receptions and six touchdowns on 109 targets. The debate in college fantasy is how high should Pauling be selected, as his numbers translated into a WR55 finish a year ago, scoring 20 or more fantasy points in just one game. For Week 1, though, he’s by far the best of the bunch.
Fade – RB Jackson Acker ($4,800) Too pricey for a RB3 at best, and potentially RB4 with how the Wisconsin freshman running backs performed in fall camp. The best you can hope for here is a late touchdown run to maybe hit value.
Bargain Bin – WR Trech Kekahuna ($3,200) Kekahuna burst onto the scene in the bowl game against LSU with 60 yards and a touchdown. While he plays in the slot behind Pauling, coaches have insisted he’s going to be on the field plenty. Kekahuna was the second-best Badger receiver in the offseason.
Pivot Play – RB Tawee Walker ($5,600) This is a 1A / 1B backfield with RB Chez Mellusi ($6,900) and TBD on the pecking order too. Mellusi has been injured practically every year he’s been in college (healthy now) and Walker was the talk of camp. OC Phil Longo has typically had a committee backfield at his previous stops. Point being – don’t expect anyone to get a Braelon Allen like workload.
Best of the Rest – QB Tyler Van Dyke ($8,600) High floor, low ceiling play here with TVD who will be an upgrade over Tanner Mordecai from a passing standpoint but is a non-factor as a runner. We need at least three passing touchdowns from him to hit value. TE Tucker Ashcraft ($3,300) is listed second on the depth chart but is the pass-catching tight end for the Badgers. Longo doesn’t feature the position much in the passing game, so if not Pauling or Kekahuna, the other options are starting receivers WR Bryson Green ($4,600) or WR Vinny Anthony ($3,300). Two Wisconsin WRs in a lineup is a viable play, but no more than that.
Injury Notes – n/a
TCU vs. Stanford
Point-Spread: TCU -9.5
O/U Total: 60.5
Implied Score: TCU 35 – Stan 25.5
Weather: 78 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
TCU:
Top Play(s) – QB Josh Hoover ($8,500) Hoover is the easy second choice at QB outside of Jackson Arnold. While enigmatic at times, Hoover brought a jolt to the TCU passing game, as he passed for 300+ yards in five of his final six starts, averaging 33.6 FPPG in that span. Stanford finished dead last in the Pac-12 last season in nearly every single defensive category, so the Horned Frogs should rack up the yards / points.
Fade – RB Trey Sanders ($5,000) Last season was incredibly frustrating at times between Emani Bailey and Sanders, where Bailey was doing all the work between the 20s, and Sanders would cash in the touchdowns. Expect to see a similar distribution this season with Sanders as the RB2 behind Cam Cook, and a touchdown dependent $5k running back is not something I’m willing to spend up for.
Bargain Bin – TE Drake Dabney ($3,900) The former Baylor transfer is expected to slide right into the TE1 spot vacated by Jared Wiley that finished last season as TE4 in college fantasy with eight touchdown receptions on 68 targets.
Pivot Play – WR Savion Williams ($6,100) TCU receivers were an absolute mess last season, rotating between six different players routinely. Williams was the top target-getter with just a 13% share. By all accounts that should change in 2024 as Williams has been described as the best offensive player for TCU during fall practices. Might we see a Quentin Johnston-like season in his last go-round as a senior?
Best of the Rest – RB Cam Cook ($5,200) Cook was the star of the spring, rattling off 50+ yard run after another. A fall camp injury hampered his progress slightly but is expected to be healthy for Friday. I wouldn’t go overboard here thinking that Cook will produce like prior RB1s Kendre Miller or Emani Bailey, though, considering TCU needs to replace all five starters on the OL from a year ago. The WR rotation will again feature John Paul Richardson ($5,600) and Dylan Wright ($5,800) as secondary characters, but also keep an eye on Boise State transfer Eric McAlister ($4,400) who averaged 18 YPC a year ago.
Injury Notes – n/a
Stanford:
Top Play(s) – WR Elic Ayomanor ($6,500) Along with Deion Burks, Ayomanor has slate-breaking potential as was displayed last season. He became the first 100-target receiver under HC Troy Taylor since Cooper Kupp in 2016, and he had a dominant stretch between Week’s 7-9, when he combined for 43 targets in three games, including a 60-point fantasy performance vs. Colorado.
Fade – RB Ryan Butler ($4,700) Butler was leading the RB competition at one point but seems to have fallen to third on the depth chart. Stanford was nowhere near good enough a year ago to consider a possible RB3, ranking 105th nationally in rushing at 3.45 YPC.
Bargain Bin – TE Sam Roush ($3,600) When Ben Yurosek went down for the season due to injury last year, there was no drop off in the final six games with Roush as the starter, catching 37 passes on 43 targets. If looking to salary save, we’re also keeping an eye on freshman RB Micah Ford ($3,000) who is in line to start on Friday per an article on Stanford’s 247 site. Even if Stanford fails to run effectively, the RB1 is typically heavily involved in the passing game, as EJ Smith displayed last year with 33 receptions on 42 targets.
Pivot Play – QB Ashton Daniels ($8,300) It was an up and down season for first-year starting QB Ashton Daniels, ads he threw for 2,220 yards and 11 touchdowns. The highs did show flashes of elite fantasy potential, scoring 40 fantasy points against both Colorado and eventual national runner-up Washington. No head coach in the country deploys their QB1 in the running game more than Taylor at 29.8% volume share, and that was evident with Daniels, who averaged around nine attempts per game. Projections say Daniels is a good play but that comes with extreme risk. (1) Backup Justin Lamson is capable is vulturing red zone attempts. (2) The fall camp reports weren’t necessarily glowing for Daniels. And Stanford has a highly touted freshman waiting in the wings in Elijah Brown. Just throwing that out there.
Best of the Rest – WR Tiger Bachmeier ($6,100) Bachmeier is solidified as the team’s second option in the passing game. Pricey for my taste as he averaged just 5 targets per game. He’d be my pivot if not playing Ayomanor to gain leverage against the field. WR3 is TBD between WR Jackson Harris ($4,200) and freshman standout Emmett Mosley V ($4,500).
Injury Notes – n/a
