Virginia Tech vs. Old Dominion
Point-Spread: Va Tech -6.5
O/U Total: 48.5
Implied Score: Va Tech 27.5 – ODU 21
Weather: 81 degrees / 0% rain / 9 mph winds
Virginia Tech:
Top Play(s) – QB Grant Wells ($8,000) A ton of uncertainty here with a first-time play-caller in Tyler Bowen at OC and a roster that returns just 50% of their offensive production from a year ago. Can’t believe I’m saying this, but Wells is probably the best option for the Hokies because we know the ball will be in his hands on most occasions. We cannot say that about any other position. With both Brent Pry (HC) and Tyler Bowen (OC) coming over from Penn State, expect the offense to rival what we saw from the Nittany Lions. That means an emphasis on the pass where Penn State averaged 33 att/g.
Fade – WR Jadan Blue ($6,100) We originally thought the Temple transfer would wind up as a starter, but a fall camp injury has forced him to be listed as a backup on the depth chart. Blue has shown he can be productive with 169 career receptions, and probably ends up a starter by season’s end, but we’ll fade at pricing.
Bargain Bin – TE Nick Gallo ($3,000) Solid player that has been overshadowed by James Mitchell over the last few seasons. Somewhat of a mystery as to how tight ends will be utilized in this scheme, as is much of the offense if being honest, but the position was often targeted during Bowen’s time at Penn State. TE1 averaged 31 receptions per year in three seasons. Not to mention Bowen was a tight ends coach previously.
Pivot Play – WR Kaleb Smith ($6,900) Smith has never been more than a WR3 during his seasons with the Hokies. In 13 games with 11 starts, Smith accumulated just 20 receptions in 2021. But there’s definitely been noise surrounding him this offseason, from his representation at ACC Media Days to repeated mentions in camp reports. Does that translate to better performances on the field?
Best of the Rest – RB Jalen Holston ($6,300) The running game was brutal during spring ball as the Hokies return just a single starter along the offensive line, so I’ll take a wait-and-see approach here with Holston, even in favorable matchup. WR Da’Wain Lofton ($4,900) is actually our highest-rated receiver according to projections and is a former 4-star recruit. Him being listed as the starter in the slot is likely related to Blue’s injury during camp, though, and not that Lofton truly won the job. ***UPDATE – Holston is now questionable for Friday.
Injury Notes – RB Malachi Thomas ($5,900) is OUT and will be week-to-week with an ankle injury.
Old Dominion:
Top Play(s) – RB Blake Watson ($4,000) Someone screwed up the algorithm at ole DraftKings because we have a 1,000-yard rusher listed at $4k. I can see pivoting because ownership will be so high, but this is essentially a free square in your lineup, similar to what Omarion Hampton was if you played in Week 0. Last six games of 2021, ODU totaled over 400 yards of offense five times, averaging 5.66 yards per play which was significant improvement over the first half of the year. Watson topped the century mark in rushing yards six times last year and will be behind an OL that returns four starters.
Fade – n/a Now that I’m looking further, they’ve underpriced everyone on the Old Dominion side so all of the familiar names are in play here.
Bargain Bin – QB Hayden Wolff ($5,100) Not the biggest fan of Wolff, but he’s too cheap to ignore. From reading up on Virginia Tech, they are not expected to have a great pass rush this season and will have to bring extra blitzers to generate pressure. Could leave open some opportunities for Wolff and this passing game. Wolff was a big reason why for the significant improvements on offense in 2021, throwing for 280 yards or more in four of the last six games.
Pivot Play – Anyone pass-catchers outside of Zack Kuntz ($3,600) or Ali Jennings ($5,000) The two star weapons for ODU combined for 53% of the target share last season. Aside from throwing it to Watson out of the backfield, no other receivers were worth a damn in this offense beyond the Big 3.
Best of the Rest – WR Jordan Bly ($3,200) and WR Javon Harvey ($3,300) are the listed starters at receiver beyond Jennings. Can’t say I know much about either player and the WR2/WR3 combined for just 33 receptions in 2021.
Injury Notes – n/a
Western Michigan vs. Michigan State
Point-Spread: MSU -20.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Implied Score: MSU 37.5 – WMU 17
Weather: 84 degrees / 0% rain / 10 mph winds
Western Michigan:
Top Play(s) – WR Corey Crooms ($6,400) The implied total for WMU continues to drop this week, and for good reason as the Broncos are replacing a ton on offense, so this won’t be an offense to heavily invest in Friday. But I do like Crooms as Western needs to replace 193 vacated targets with the losses of Jaylen Hall and Skyy Moore. Crooms should easily step into the Moore role and garner 100+ targets in 2022. Game script will also be working in his favor here. Now about that QB play…
Fade – QB Jack Salopek ($6,300) The only saving grace here is that Salopek is a decent runner, which adds to his fantasy value. Outside of that, how is a first-year starter with a lower implied total priced lower than Hayden Wolff? Turnover on the offensive line and a brand new WR corps beyond Crooms. Absolute stay away.
Bargain Bin – n/a I’d offer an opinion here, but Western Michigan and Michigan State are playing childish games and not releasing their depth charts. As if it matters with the Spartans as a 23.5-point favorite. With that said, if rostering a WMU player, I’d stick to the known commodities.
Pivot Play – n/a
Best of the Rest – Just three starters are back amongst the front seven for MSU, but still a defense that ranked top 15 nationally a season ago in yards allowed on the ground, allowing 3.39 YPC. That’s back-to-back seasons under Mel Tucker where the defense has held opponents to under four yards per attempt. With RB Sean Tyler ($6,900) and RB La’Darius Jefferson ($5,100) will be the focal point of the WMU offense this season, but we’ll wait until MACtion to roster them.
Injury Notes – n/a
Michigan State:
Top Play(s) – WR Jayden Reed ($7,300) Top target in a Michigan State passing game that loses 21% of their production from last year with Jalen Nailor graduating, and we should see the Spartans’ throwing a bit more in 2022 now that Kenneth Walker is in the NFL. Reed also serves as the team’s top return man and is involved in the running game some, so a chance at additional points in multiple ways. WMU does have a talented defensive back in Dorian Jackson who was an All-MAC performer in 2021 that will likely shadow Reed.
Fade – WRs not named Jayden Reed I think we have a good idea of who will start alongside Reed with Tre Mosley ($5,900) and Keon Coleman ($4,600) but that is no certainty as the depth charts for this game are under wraps. I’ll be passing on this WR room beyond Reed until we have some more clarity, though I will say the WR2 in this system typically generates 21% of the target share (25% for WR1). That is likely to be Mosley.
Bargain Bin – TE Maliq Carr ($3,200) I won’t be playing Carr this week, but if scraping the bottom of the barrel, this is a converted receiver that had 60% of his targets come in the final two games of last season. Granted, he was only targeted 10 times the entire season, but a player that was trending upwards late. Gets some run on the MSU basketball team as a practice player at 6-foot-5, 230 pounds.
Pivot Play – RB Jalen Berger ($4,900) Most expect that RB Jarek Broussard ($6,800) will be the starter on Friday, but that is far from certain with the former Wisconsin transfer having a solid offseason from all accounts. Mel Tucker singled out Berger following a scrimmage in mid-August, stating he averaged nearly five yards a carry. Don’t go into this situation rostering either player, though, expecting Kenneth Walker like numbers. Remember, the RB1 averaged just 30% market share in the backfield under OC Jay Johnson prior to last year. Kenneth Walker was at 55.1% and there is zero chance of that happening in 2022.
Best of the Rest – QB Payton Thorne ($8,100) probably has the highest floor of any quarterback on the slate. Posted 28 fantasy points or more eight times last season, including 38 vs. Youngstown State if you were worried about potential blowout scenario limiting his upside.
Injury Notes – WR Jayden Reed has been “in and out” of practice the last few weeks, but was said to be precautionary. He’s ready to roll.
Eastern Kentucky vs. Eastern Michigan
Point-Spread: n/a
O/U Total: n/a
Implied Score: n/a
Weather: 85 degrees / 0% rain / 9 mph winds
Eastern Michigan:
Top Play(s) – QB Taylor Powell ($7,500) We’ve stated this strategy in other team writeups, but give me the guy who we know will have the ball in his hands for Week 1. Powell has arguably the best assortment of receivers in the MAC conference at his disposal in a favorable matchup. Expect the target share amongst the receivers to be spread out, and this system rarely has a workhorse running back.
Fade – RB Darius Boone Jr. ($7,400) EMU splits carries in the backfield more than most teams in the country, so this was going to be a fade regardless at his price. But now Boone sits third on the depth chart behind Samson Evans and Jaylon Jackson. No thanks.
Bargain Bin – RB Jaylon Jackson ($3,000) Can’t say I know who Jackson is, but his bio on the EMU website states he led Lamar in rushing last season with 87 carries for 309 yards and two scores. Jackson was a surprise on the team depth chart, listed second behind Samson Evans. RB2 last season (Boone Jr.) was actually first in rushing attempts with 26.4% share. Maybe Jackson gets some run here in a blowout situation.
Pivot Play – RB Samson Evans The former Iowa transfer scored a touchdown on 20% of his carries last season. That must be some sort of record. Evans found the end-zone in nine of 13 games played last season, so there is a strong possibility that happens again Friday against an FCS opponent.
Best of the Rest – Strongest collection of receivers in the MAC with Hassan Beydoun ($7,800), Tanner Knue ($5,000) and Dylan Drummond ($6,600) who combined for 63% of the team’s total targets a year ago. Based on pricing, Drummond will see the lowest ownership of the three, despite topping 100 targets last season and a team-high six touchdowns. His targets took a slight dip the second half of the year when Knue returned from injury, though.
Injury Notes – n/a
William & Mary vs. Charlotte
Point-Spread: n/a
O/U Total: n/a
Implied Score: n/a
Weather: 90 degrees / 10% rain / 7 mph winds
Charlotte:
Top Play(s) – WR Grant Dubose ($7,400) If not for a frustrating drop on a deep ball, Dubose would have had more than the 4-89-2 stat-line he posted last week vs. Florida Atlantic. Targets were spread amongst the top three Charlotte receivers as expected, but last week only reinforced our opinion that Dubose is the WR to roster here. 22.3 YPC, 3.56 yards per route run and a 18.4 aDOT.
Fade – RB Shadrick Byrd ($7,800) Interesting that Byrd received 83% of the carries vs. FAU with backup Calvin Camp getting just one rushing attempt. Last year was essentially a 50-50 split between the two. I’ll be watching to see if that dynamic changes this week, and we’re also expecting to see another 10+ carries go to the new starting quarterback. Too pricey for my liking.
Bargain Bin – WR Elijah Spencer ($4,900) Spencer had some maddening drops last weekend, but saw the most snaps of any Charlotte WR and was tied for first in targets with six. Will see ample playing time this week at a significantly lesser price point.
Pivot Play – QB James Foster ($7,700) The former Texas A&M transfer has all the physical traits you’d want out of a G5 quarterback but looked just ‘ok’ in spot duty the last year and a half. In the most extended playing time he had a year ago, Foster completed just 12-of-24 passes for 129 yards vs. Western Kentucky. Did have 16 carries which is enticing from a fantasy aspect and I doubt most DFS players will be rostering him despite the matchup.
Best of the Rest – WR Victor Tucker ($5,800) Tucker might be a popular pick in optimal lineups with his salary as he was tied with Spencer with six targets last week. Because of that, I’ll probably stay away looking for upside and lower ownership with someone like Dubose.
Injury Notes – QB Chris Reynolds is OUT for this week, with the hopes of returning Week 2 vs. Maryland.
Temple vs. Duke
Point-Spread: Duke -9.5
O/U Total: 51.5
Implied Score: Duke 30 – Temple 21.5
Weather: 88 degrees / 6% rain / 5 mph winds
Temple:
Top Play(s) – QB D’Wan Mathis ($6,000) Our fearless leader and CFFSite owner Joe DiSalvo is rolling his eyes right now after reading D’Wan Mathis is our top play for the Owls. But he’s currently the only player in our projections for Temple that surpasses double-digit fantasy points, and is a dual-threat. In fairness, we won’t be starting any Temple players this week as we believe this to be a Year 0 situation under new HC Stan Drayton as much of the roster was overhauled this offseason.
Fade – Everyone else Temple finished dead last in the AAC last season in both scoring offense and defense.
Bargain Bin – WR Adonicas Sanders ($3,700) The Georgia Tech transfer immediately ascended the depth chart as soon as he arrived, and there is a possibility he winds up as the WR1 for the Owls this season. He’s been the first name mentioned amongst the receivers both by coaches and Temple websites.
Pivot Play – RB Edward Saydee ($5,000) With head coach Stan Drayton being a former running backs coach and run game coordinator during his time at Texas, we suspect the Owls will try and lean on their backfield to open up the year. A committee approach is expected, but last year’s starter Edward Saydee emerged from the pack once again to land the RB1 job. How long that remains with a pair of transfers added in Jakari Norwood (Illinois) and Darvon Hubbard (Texas A&M) is TBD, but Saydee will get the first carry on Friday.
Best of the Rest – n/a I’ve already written too much here for a team that won’t surpass 2-3 wins this year.
Injury Notes – TE David Martin-Robinson ($3,900) is a game-time decision per Drayton.
Duke:
Top Play(s) – WR Jalon Calhoun ($6,500) Per the Duke website, Calhoun is the “unquestioned top option” for the Blue Devils at receiver. Finished second on the team last season with 56 receptions and 72 targets, though his 7.4 aDOT means many of his catches are coming close to the line of scrimmage. That’s fine in a PPR setting like DraftKings. 105 vacated targets to replace as well with Jake Bobo transferring out.
Fade – RB Jaylen Coleman ($6,200) Honestly very surprised to see Coleman listed atop the depth chart after he was essentially the third or fourth option a year ago. Maybe his playing style translated well to the new offensive system? This has the makings of a committee here, and won’t be shocked in the slightest to see someone else in the Duke backfield lead in carries. RB1 under OC Kevin Johns has averaged just 10.6 carries per game the last four years.
Bargain Bin – RB Terry Moore ($3,000) Moore was one of the top running backs in the state of North Carolina as a high school senior, gaining 4,935 yard over the course of his career. The true freshman was also one of the bright spots of the spring game with a 66-yard performance in April. Listed as fourth-string on the depth chart, it would not surprise us if he shoots to the top at some point with a new coaching staff in town and players on a fresh slate.
Pivot Play – QB Riley Leonard ($6,600) As we mentioned above, Temple is churning over the majority of their roster, returning just 45% of the production from last year. Is that a good thing or bad thing when you finished dead last in your conference in scoring defense? We don’t have a great feel of what to expect from this offense admittedly, but Leonard projects close to 20 fantasy points here which is just fine for his pricing. Offenses under new OC Kevin Johns have finished inside the top 50 in Pace each of the last seven seasons, and averaged 30+ PPG in all three years at Memphis.
Best of the Rest – WR Eli Pancol ($4,800) Third on the team in targets (27) in 2021 and expected to be the team’s top red-zone threat at 6-foot-3. Nearly 200 vacated targets are gone from last year’s squad and Pancol looks to be the secondary option in the passing game behind Calhoun.
Injury Notes – n/a
Tennessee Tech vs. Kansas
Point-Spread: n/a
O/U Total: n/a
Implied Score: n/a
Weather: 86 degrees / 10% rain / 7 mph winds
Kansas:
Top Play(s) – QB Jalon Daniels ($9,400) Consider me spooked here about the Kansas running back room. Devin Neal is the most talented offensive player on the roster and will get the first carry, but the coaching staff LOVES the depth they have at the position. I’ll roll Daniels here as the top play who was excellent down the stretch last season, averaging 28 FPPG over the final three weeks. Backup Jason Bean is dealing with an injury too, so we likely won’t see any kind of rotation. FWIW – projections have Daniels at just 18 fantasy points so he’s realistically a fade at price.
Fade – WR Luke Grimm ($8,400) This one is even more baffling than the Old Dominion pricing. Grimm wasn’t even going to be a starter until Trevor Wilson got himself arrested. Don’t even bother considering Grimm this week.
Bargain Bin – RB Daniel Hinshaw Jr. ($4,000) Might be a surprise to some, including myself, to see Hinshaw listed second on the depth chart above Minnesota transfer Ky Thomas. But coaches have raved about Hinshaw, saying he boosted his stock more than anyone on the roster in fall camp. We know how formidable this rush offense can be under head coach Lance Leipold, where even the RB2 has averaged close to 700 yards per season in this scheme.
Pivot Play – RB Devin Neal ($8,900) The concerns about depth are slightly worrisome but lets consider the potential payoff. At peak, a Lance Leipold RB1 has topped 1,000 yards in five of the last eight seasons with an average of 13 rushing touchdowns per. Neal met expectations as a freshman, averaging 4.5 YPC with a team-high eight rushing scores.
Best of the Rest – WR Lawrence Arnold ($6,300) and Quincy Skinner ($5,300) are the receivers to target here, though that is certainly not a requirement given this is a run-based offense. Seven of the last eight WR1s under Leipold have been outside receivers which both players are. Arnold is the likeliest candidate to assume the Kwamie Lassiter role from last year as the team’s top wideout.
Injury Notes – n/a
Illinois vs. Indiana
Point-Spread: Ind -1.5
O/U Total: 45.5
Implied Score: Ind 23 – Ill 21.5
Weather: 84 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Illinois:
Top Play(s) – RB Chase Brown ($5,400) Did DraftKings watch Week 0? Just going to assume this is a backend site malfunction as to why Brown is priced so low. Will see the highest ownership of the slate.
Fade – QB Tommy DeVito ($5,300) DeVito was fine last week, completing 27-of-37 passes for 194 yards and two scores. But that was a defense in Wyoming without much of a pulse in the latter part of the game. Indiana will have a pulse, and I’ll need to see to believe if DeVito can stack together two good performances in a row, now going on the road vs. a B1G opponent.
Bargain Bin – WR Pat Bryant ($4,300) It was actually Brian Hightower who had more receptions, but both he and Bryant had the same amount of targets, with the 6-foot-3 sophomore actually playing 12 more offensive snaps as well. Nabbed his first career touchdown as well.
Pivot Play – QB Isaiah Williams ($5,600) Folks might shy away if they didn’t find the injury reporting this week that Williams is fine after being taken off on a cart last week in the win over Wyoming. HC Bret Bielema stated it was just cramping and that Williams could’ve returned to the game if needed. The converted receiver was the target hog we anticipated him to be with seven receptions on nine targets, though minimal yardage with an aDOT of just 0.8. We like the added value Williams brings to the table as a threat to throw or run the ball in wildcat situations.
Best of the Rest – WR Brian Hightower ($3,900) played starter reps and was tied for second on the team with four receptions on five targets. The only other option on the Illinois roster besides the ones listed above.
Injury Notes – RB Josh McCray is OUT, but Bret Bielema stated that it was not a season-ending injury suffered vs. Wyoming.
Indiana:
Top Play(s) – RB Shaun Shivers ($4,600) There is no projected depth chart in this week’s game notes, but we did find one back in early August with Auburn transfer Shaun Shivers listed at the top. We don’t have a high projection here at just 11.85 fantasy points, but that feels like a floor performance for an RB1, and more than worthwhile at his pricing. Three OL starters are back for the Hoosiers, and the Illinois run defense looked shaky at times last week, allowing Titus Swen to average 5.8 YPC despite no threat of a Wyoming passing game.
Fade – QBs. While we believe it will be Connor Bazelak getting the nod, we don’t have clarity into this situation. And should we care? This was the second-worst scoring offense in the Big Ten last season.
Bargain Bin – TE A.J. Barner ($3,500) This is not an offensive system under offensive coordinator Walt Bell that has produced much tight end production in the past. But Barner is a talented player that garnered high praise from coaches this offseason. 10 of his 14 receptions last year came in the final three games, and if you want to see a display of his athleticism, go check out his 76-yard reception last year vs. Idaho in Week 2.
Pivot Play – WR D.J. Matthews ($5,400) No official injury report released this week by the Hoosiers, but insiders have said that everyone looks healthy in advance of Week 1. Maybe we get a slight edge in ownership with Matthews listed as questionable. The former Florida State transfer averaged 4.75 targets per game in the first four weeks last year before a season-ending injury. He’s the only known commodity in the Hoosiers’ passing game.
Best of the Rest – WR Cam Camper ($3,200) The JUCO transfer was a projected starter for us, and did land a starting spot in the initial depth chart. 247Sports listed Camper as the No. 1 junior college wide receiver transfer this offseason and both Indiana quarterbacks have stated how much they love throwing to him. Will provide size at 6-foot-2. I’m personally very intrigued here with his pricing.
Injury Notes – n/a
TCU vs. Colorado
Point-Spread: TCU -13.5
O/U Total: 57.5
Implied Score: TCU 35.5 – Col 22
Weather: 77 degrees / 10% rain / 4 mph winds
TCU:
Top Play(s) – WR Quentin Johnston ($8,000) Lock n’load. Best player on the slate. Last year’s DFS players might shy away because of how inconsistent Johnston’s production was in 2021, but a new offensive system + coaches stating they’re doing everything in their power to get their star receiver the football. Consistency and # of targets will improve in 2022 – book it.
Fade – WR Taye Barber ($5,700) Just too expensive for someone that is going to be sharing time in the slot with both Derius Davis and Gunnar Henderson who performed well in fall camp. Barber scored more than 12 fantasy points just one all of last season and have been burned by him in DFS too many times in the past.
Bargain Bin – RB Emani Bailey ($4,300) Despite sitting four on the depth chart (I’ll double check on injury status), Bailey is our projected backup to Kendre Miller, and was ripping off long runs in scrimmages as recently as last weekend. Three touchdown runs reported by a beat writer in an August practice. He’ll shoot up the depth chart over some veterans listed ahead of him.
Pivot Play – QB Chandler Morris ($7,600) Sonny Dykes playing mind games, threatening us with TCU possibly using three quarterbacks. I don’t buy it. I was told it was Morris two weeks ago and my prediction hasn’t changed. A significant edge to be had here too potentially in GPPs with players scared off by the coach’s quotes. QB1 under Sonny Dykes has averaged 29.1 FPPG over the last eight seasons.
Best of the Rest – RB Kendre Miller ($7,500) Healthy projection for Miller this week at close to 17 fantasy points. Clear-cut RB1 in Sonny Dykes’ offense has averaged 15.4 FPPG over the last eight years and 36.2% of the volume share. Featured often in the passing game as well, averaging around 31 receptions per season in that span. TCU’s offensive line is supposed to be a massive strength in 2022, so I don’t see how Miller fails to meet his floor this week against a bad Colorado team.
Injury Notes – n/a
Colorado:
Top Play(s) – RB Alex Fontenot ($5,100) Hasn’t been since 2019, but Fontenot has been a lead-back for Colorado before, rushing for 874 yards and five touchdowns as a sophomore. The Buffs return three starters on the offensive line and add a pair of transfers so this running game should at least match last year’s totals, if not surpass them. TCU was 119th in the country last year, allowing over 460 yards per game.
Fade – WRs This was the 126th ranked passing game last season, and our projected WR1 R.J. Sneed ($3,700) isn’t even listed as a starter (might be due to injury). I cannot confidently project how the pecking order will shake out here between the Colorado receivers, and with how poorly they threw the ball a season ago, I won’t be taking any chances rostering one.
Bargain Bin – TE Brady Russell ($3,700) Tight end production has been solid over the years under OC Mike Sanford Jr., averaging 31.6 receptions per season over the last five. Russell might be the most trusted pass-catcher right now on the team with 25 receptions on 30 targets a year ago.
Pivot Play – QB Brendon Lewis ($4,800) Extreme risk here with Lewis as HC Karl Dorrell has yet to publicly announce a starter, and even said that the two top contenders will share time this Week. Lewis is listed atop the depth chart, so we’ll proceed under the assumption he gets the first snap. The results were downright awful last year, averaging 11.9 FPPG, but Lewis started to show life in the second half with three 20+ point performances between Week’s 7-10. Any quarterback that averages nine rushing attempts per game deserves the slightest bit of attention in fantasy football, no matter how poor a passer he is.
Best of the Rest – WR Montana Lemonious-Craig ($4,700) No real analysis here, just a great name. Former 3-star recruit. I’ll take a shot on a rising sophomore over the likes of middling seniors like Daniel Arias and Maurice Bell, simply for upside purposes. In the second fall camp scrimmage, MLC did catch a 29-yard touchdown from quarterback JT Shrout.
Injury Notes – n/a
FCS:
Enough FBS options on the slate here where I’ll likely avoid any and all FCS players here. With two more slates to write up this weekend, we’re going to save some time and bypass any research.
