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Northern Illinois vs. Boston College
Point-Spread: BC -9.5
O/U Total: 52
Implied Score: BC 31 – NIU 21.5
Weather: 74 degrees / 0% rain / 11 mph winds
Northern Illinois:
Top Play(s) – WR Trayvon Rudolph ($4,600) Nice to have Northern Illinois’ top playmaker back in the starting lineup after missing all of last season with a knee injury. The staff did take it slow with Rudolph throughout fall camp, but is listed as a starting receiver and returner, which is promising for his health outlook for Week 1. Led NIU in receiving back in 2021 with 51 catches and seven touchdowns, and all wideouts benefit from getting their starting quarterback healthy again. Modest defensive metrics for the BC pass defense last season, ranking 51st in explosiveness and 72nd in success rate, all the while losing their top CB to the portal.
Fade – RB Gavin Williams ($4,300) The Iowa transfer will provide needed depth to the NIU backfield, but this is Antario Brown’s ($5,100) in 2023. The spring camp MVP looks to rebound from an inconsistent 2022 where he landed in a rotation among three different options at the position. Doesn’t seem to be the case entering this season, and the Huskies return four starters along the offensive line – though the group did disappoint compared to expectations.
Bargain Bin – WR Kacper Rutkiewicz ($3,000) I think this is a misprice by DraftKings with NIU’s likely No. 2 receiver at min salary. Despite being a reserve for most of 2022, Rutkiewicz wound up leading the Huskies in touchdowns (6) with a 67% target conversion rate. Should Rudolph not be at 100% (we think he is, but never know for sure), Rutkiewicz could see increased usage.
Pivot Play – QB Rocky Lombardi ($7,400) The former Michigan State transfer is back under center for the Huskies after missing most of last season due to injury. Lombardi has had success against P5 opponents since arriving in DeKalb, throwing two touchdowns in an upset victory on the road against Georgia Tech in 2021. Last year, Lombardi started 7-of-7 against Vanderbilt before giving way due to injury. This is one of the better WR groups NIU has boasted in some time and game script likely plays in his favor.
Best of the Rest – WR Davis Patterson ($3,000) A 6-foot-4 FCS transfer, Patterson lands an outside starting job opposite Trayvon Rudolph. Sat out most of last year to injury, Patterson did post 629 receiving yards and five touchdowns, averaging 16.1 YPC in 2021 at Notre Dame College. To re-emphasize, NIU really likes their wide receiver group this year.
Injury Notes – n/a
Boston College:
Top Play(s) – WR Ryan O’Keefe ($6,100) Expecting Zay Flowers-like numbers from the UCF transfer this year would be optimistic, but O’Keefe will essentially be inserted in the exact same role in the slot that produced 124 targets in 2022. Not the highest projection at just 13.2 fantasy points, but you know what you’re getting from veteran with 184 career receptions in a defined role.
Fade – RB Pat Garwo ($6,000) At some point this BC running game has to improve, right? One of the worst offensive lines in the country from a metrics standpoint does return 94% of their offensive snaps from a season ago. Good or bad news? We’ll see right out of the gates against a very suspect NIU defense that graded out very poorly in 2022. Low floor, limited upside play here as BC also has increased depth at the RB spot with Kye Robichaux coming over from Western Kentucky and sophomore Alex Broome ($5,100) who the staff likes quite a bit.
Bargain Bin – TE George Takacs ($3,500) Another player whose season was cut short due to injury, Takacs was averaging 4.6 targets per game before being lost for the year. New associate head coach of the offense, Rob Chudzinski, was a TE position coach at previous stops, so we could see Takacs featured if Chud has a big say on the play-calling.
Pivot Play – WR Joseph Griffin ($5,300) The 6-foot-3 sophomore was outstanding down the stretch last season with 13 receptions and three scores in the last five games. While most anticipate O’Keefe being the leading target-getter for the Eagles, new faces in new places can lead to changes. Are we certain it’s not Griffin as WR1 here? Talent is there.
Best of the Rest – QB Emmett Morehead ($7,600) Should the run game issues persist, BC could have an upgrade at the quarterback position in Emmett Morehead who did play well down the stretch last season, completing 60% of his passes in three of the last four games. We’ll take out the Notre Dame performance from the equation as the weather was blustery that night. We’ve spoken on the surplus of weapons that Morehead has at his disposal. NIU’s deficiencies on defense in 2022 were against the pass, ranking 132nd in explosiveness allowed and 96th in success rate.
Injury Notes – TE Elijah Arroyo ($3,000)
Virginia vs. Tennessee
Point-Spread: UT -28
O/U Total: 58
Implied Score: UT 43 – UVA 15
Weather: 80 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Virginia:
We were expecting regression with the Virginia offense last season given the coaching changes but taking a nosedive off a cliff without the bungee cord was not on our list of possible outcomes. UVA scored just 17 PPG – half as many points as they scored the year prior. The Cavs combined for just seven touchdown passes in 10 games, and what made matters worse was that they led the country in drops (35). To add insult to injury, Virginia running backs combined to score the fewest fantasy points in the country. HC Tony Elliott’s reputation as an offensive mind is diminishing with each passing season, and there is no confidence here that OC Des Kitchings can formulate a CFF-relevant offense based on his past history.
As for playable options on Saturday, the list is slim. We’re avoiding both the quarterback position and the impending mess of a committee in the UVA backfield. The Cavs do have two talented receiving options, though, in a game they’ll need to throw to keep pace with UT. WR Malachi Fields ($4,800) is a very talented receiver that’s been overshadowed the last few seasons by Keytaon Thompson and Dontayvion Wicks. Similar build at 6-foot-3, and the clear-cut No. 1 option for UVA with over 200 vacated targets no longer on the roster. Northwestern transfer Malik Washington ($4,200) is also reasonably priced with a positive game script who brings over 120 career receptions to a room that desperately needs experience.
Tennessee:
Top Play(s) – QB Joe Milton ($8,700) Running back is going to be a full-blown committee as it typically is under HC Josh Heupel. And the tea leaves are indicating receiver might be a joint effort as well with four capable starters at the position. So we’ll settle for the conductor of the offense in Joe Milton who left a lasting impression with his three-touchdown performance in the bowl game vs. Clemson. He’s got his detractors, having lost a starting job twice in his college career, but he’s by far the safest bet on the UT offense for Week 1. Heupel’s last five starting quarterbacks have averaged over 29 FPPG.
Fade – Tight Ends. The position isn’t featured much under Heupel, but will even less so be the case in 2023 given the depth at WR, with playing more 4-wide sets in the cards. At its peak, the TE1 only averages 3.1 targets per game in this system, and the Vols lose its starter from last year.
Bargain Bin – WR Ramel Keyton ($4,100) Ole reliable. The 5th-year senior was disrespected by CFF players in the offseason, drafting the other three UT receivers well ahead of the established veteran. Well, Keyton secured a starting spot outside, and has performed well when given the opportunity, including 76 yards and a TD in the bowl game. The slot receiver (White/Thornton) is typically the most valuable in the Heupel passing scheme, but UT also averages 33 pass attempts per game, so plenty to go around.
Pivot Play – WR Dont’e Thornton ($4,300) Hype grew louder for Thornton as the offseason went along with plenty of praise from the staff. Not an exact replica of last year’s starter Jalin Hyatt, as Thornton is a few inches taller, but the size/speed combination is perfectly suited in the UT offense that loves to stretch defenses vertically. The risk here is that Thornton is likely to share the slot position with WR Squirrel White ($5,500) but some would argue the Oregon transfer is the most talented on the team. I think there could be some leverage here playing Thornton over White, as folks will look at last year’s box score against Clemson.
Best of the Rest – RBs. All three top running backs (Small, Wright, Sampson) are in the middling price range that we’ll probably just avoid altogether. The passing game gets the headlines, but this is one of the more balanced offenses in the country, rushing for 40 TDs a year ago. The problem is RBBC where Jabari Small and Jaylen Wright accounted for 30% / 28% of the volume share, respectively. Add in a talented option like Dylan Sampson or potentially 4-star Cameron Seldon and this is a full-blown time share.
Injury Notes – n/a
Colorado vs. TCU
Point-Spread: TCU -20.5
O/U Total: 59.5
Implied Score: TCU 40 – Col 19.5
Weather: 88 degrees / 1% rain / 8 mph winds
Colorado:
Top Play(s) – QB Shedeur Sanders ($7,000) This might be one of those plays where you’re tilting at your lineup with Sanders scoring single-digit fantasy points in the first half, yet by the end of the day, he’s one of the top scoring QBs on the slate. Colorado’s defense will be atrocious in 2023, but we don’t care how the fantasy points come by, whether at the start of the game or in garbage time. Sanders will likely be in favorable game scripts all season long, but with a host of talented playmakers at receiver which we’ll get to in a sec. That’s an enviable spot for fantasy production.
Fade – RB Alton McCaskill ($4,800) No shot I’m playing a guy, even as talented as McCaskill is, in a poor game script setting that is not yet 100% healthy. As of this past week, HC Deion Sanders was quoted as saying McCaskill was “trying to fight him” to get the non-contact jersey removed. Two weeks out and you’re not being tackled still? I’ll assume you’re not playing or limited.
Bargain Bin – WR Javon Antonio ($3,000) We’re anticipating all-world athlete Travis Hunter to play offensive snaps, but when he’s not, transfer Javon Antonio will enter the starting lineup opposite Xavier Weaver. Watch any highlight videos and you’ll a man in Antonio at 6-foot-4, 220 pounds with 95 receptions and 10 touchdowns in 16 career games at Northwestern State. He was a late add during the summer, but already established as a top 3-4 receiver for the Buffs.
Pivot Play – WR Jimmy Horn Jr. ($5,200) We’re pretty set on former USF transfer Xavier Weaver ($5,600) being the WR1 for Colorado this season. Why? The last nine WR1s under new offensive coordinator Sean Lewis have all been outside receivers. That’s Weaver. With that said, Horn Jr. is a very talented player in his own right, and if he’s the clear-cut WR2, that spot averages around eight targets a game when the offense is functioning at its peak. Doubtful it will in game one of the Deion Sanders era, but there is potential, especially with health concerns at RB.
Best of the Rest – RB Dylan Edwards ($3,500) I believe Kentucky transfer Kavosiey Smoke would get the starting nod if McCaskill were to sit. To be clear, we’re not starting any Colorado RB on Saturday, but if we were, the 4-star FR Dylan Edwards would be our choice. Just pull up the spring game highlights to see how explosive this playmaker is both as a runner and returner.
Injury Notes – Check pregame if Alton McCaskill is a go or not. Unlikely in our opinion.
TCU:
Top Play(s) – QB Chandler Morris ($6,900) Morris might be a top play at the QB position this week given his pricing and 26-point projection. The Buffs finished bottom third, and in most cases bottom 10, in almost every advanced defensive metric in 2022. It’s been noted by every publication, but we’ll mention again that Morris did beat out Heisman finalist Max Duggan last season before injury set in. Last four QB1s under head coach Sonny Dykes all averaged 31 or more FPPG as a starter.
Fade – WR JoJo Earle ($6,900) Personally not high on the TCU receiving group this year and think we’ll see a mixed bag without a clear-cut target hog. With that in mind, we’re avoiding the highest-priced player here in Earle, the former Alabama transfer. Remember how split the targets were in the slot last season between Derius Davis and Taye Barber? Neither one garnered more than 15% target share, and good chance we see a similar split with Oklahoma State transfer John Paul Richardson ($6,500) also potentially inside at the slot. Not to mention, JPR received more headlines for his performances in camp than did Earle.
Bargain Bin – RB Trey Sanders ($3,900) No official depth chart as of Thursday, so we don’t know the exact pecking order at running back for the Horned Frogs, but the former 5-star is expected among the top two with holdover Emani Bailey ($5,400). Pricing seems to indicate Bailey being the guy, and recent practice reports suggest he’s been the most consistent between the two. But we’re expecting more running this season from TCU with new OC Kendal Briles whose offenses averaged around eight more total team carries per game at Arkansas.
Pivot Play – WR Savion Williams ($6,700) While not on that level as a talent, Williams does fit the size profile of a WR1, similar to last year’s top playmaker Quentin Johnston. Of note, seven of the previous nine WR1s under Sonny Dykes have all played the outside position where Williams will line up. FWIW – we’ve now listed three TCU wideouts in this writeup, but I’m completely fine with Chandler Morris by himself in a lineup. Four different receivers had 10% or more target share a year ago, and there isn’t a star amongst this group.
Best of the Rest – WR Warren Thompson ($3,200) The former Florida State and Arkansas transfer is now at his third P5 stop in his collegiate journey and looks to be a starter opposite Savion Williams based on one depth chart projection. Does have familiarity with Kendal Briles being with the Razorbacks last season but check the game logs. Rarely did that familiarity result in production.
Injury Notes – n/a
Arkansas State vs. Oklahoma
Point-Spread: OU -35
O/U Total: 58.5
Implied Score: OU 46.5 – Ark St 12
Weather: 82 degrees / 0% rain / 9 mph winds
Arkansas State:
14-game slates are a monster to compile, so we’re going to pare it down whenever possible to save time. As difficult as it is to imagine after moving on from James Blackman, Arkansas State has actually downgraded at the quarterback position with former Colorado and Tennessee transfer JT Shrout who has thrown nearly as many interceptions as he has touchdowns in his career. Non-runner too. Full-fledged RBBC in the backfield so not interested there. The appealing part of the Arkansas State offense will be the receivers with Corey Rucker ($4,900), Jeff Foreman ($4,300) and Syracuse transfer Courtney Jackson ($4,600) starting in the slot. That’s about as good a WR corp as you’ll find at the G5 level. Can Shrout be good enough against Oklahoma that any of those three are of value? Very skeptical of that.
Oklahoma:
Top Play(s) – WR Jalil Farooq ($7,500) The talented playmaker should function as the team’s WR1 in 2023 as the coaching staff will look for different ways to get Farooq the ball in multiple facets of the game. Seven 1,000-yard seasons for the WR1 in the last nine years that Jeff Lebby has been a playcaller.
Fade – RBs. What an absolute disaster of an RB depth chart the Sooners released with multiple ORs, and the most talented options being buried behind a mediocre veteran. Check out projections. We’re still with Jovantae Barnes and Gavin Sawchuk, no matter how the depth chart reads. But that will lead us to fading the situation entirely in hopes this gets sorted out as the season goes along. OC Jeff Lebby typically employs a RBBC as it is anyways, with the RB1 averaging just 14.3 att/g. Can’t imagine whoever starts comes close to that number in a blowout situation.
Bargain Bin – WR Gavin Freeman ($4,000) Longshot play here, but at one point during the summer, the coaching staff said that Freeman was arguably the team’s best receiver. Distant fourth option in the passing game, in our opinion, behind Farooq, Anthony and nepo baby Drake Stoops, but Freeman will see the field in four-wide sets in the slot.
Pivot Play – WR Andrel Anthony ($4,800) The former Michigan transfer should fit perfectly into the Marvin Mims’ role from a year ago. Not functioning as the WR1, but as the team’s top deep threat. HC Brent Venables spoke highly apparently of Anthony during fall camp as his transition to Norman appears to be going better than it was in the spring. Anthony is capable, as we saw a few years back in East Lansing when he went for 150+ yards and two scores.
Best of the Rest – QB Dillon Gabriel ($9,100) A 22-point projection at this price doesn’t warrant us starting Gabriel, though he should be one of the safest, high-floor options on the slate. Oklahoma also seems determined to give 5-star FR Jackson Arnold some reps early in the year as he’ll assume the starting job in 2024.
Injury Notes – n/a
Ball State vs. Kentucky
Point-Spread: UK -26.5
O/U Total: 48.5
Implied Score: UK 37.5 – Ball St 11
Weather: 80 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Ball State:
Ball State has unknowns at quarterback and receiver, but you’re likely not drafting those players anyway. Our focus is on running back where Carson Steele and his blonde mane head out west to UCLA, and in comes Kent State transfer RB Marquez Cooper ($7,400). We know Cooper is a shoe-in to start, the question becomes whether he assumes the vacated 289 carries Steele accumulated in 2022. Even at 5-foot-7, 190 pounds, we know with certainty that Cooper can withstand the punishment after posting back-to-back 1,200-yard rushing seasons and totaling 526 carries in the last two years. HC Mike Neu has had four running backs hit 200-plus rushing attempts in seven seasons, and it would have been five if not for the COVID-shortened 2020 year. Neu praised the depth at the position, specifically backup Vaughn Pemberton ($3,000) who was designated with an OR on the depth chart along with Cooper. Like a lot of these MACtion players on this slate, we’ll wait for conference season to start to insert in our lineups.
On the injury front, star TE Brady Hunt ($3,000) was in a boot last week in practice, but did appear on the depth chart. Ball State lost over 90% of the receiving production from the wide receiver position last year, so we’d imagine the passing will lean heavily on Hunt and fellow TE Tanner Koziol ($3,000) who combined for 12 of the team’s 18 receiving touchdowns in 2022.
Kentucky:
Top Play(s) – RB Ray Davis ($7,100) View this as a plug and play, losing last year’s starter Chris Rodriguez but gaining another 1,000-yard rusher in Vanderbilt transfer Ray Davis. Four starters are also back on the offensive line, facing a Ball State defense that is 87th in returning defensive production and was 88th in success rate on run plays defensively.
Fade – RB Demie Sumo-Karngbaye ($5,500) Cop out answer to list Demie Sumo as a fade considering his pricing and that he’s listed fourth on the depth chart. We do love Sumo next year as a potential RB1 option after Ray Davis graduates. File away for moving forward, but Sumo was also lining up as a receiver in fall camp to further exploit his talents as an athlete, so wouldn’t count him out down the road as an option.
Bargain Bin – TE Jordan Dingle ($3,000) Athletic option at the tight end position that had a strong year as a redshirt FR with 20 receptions and three touchdowns. Would think tight end is a distant fourth priority in the passing game given the horde of talent at the wide receiver position, though.
Pivot Play – WR Tayvion Robinson ($5,000) We were burnt badly several times by rostering Tayvion Robinson in our lineups, thinking he was the next Wan’Dale Robinson. Turns out he and the former OC did NOT get along. Interestingly, former OC Liam Coen returns to Lexington as the team’s play-caller, and we know his coaching tendencies of featuring slot receivers. Remember Robinson and his 104 receptions in 2021? Well, Robinson played 71% of his snaps last season in the slot.
Best of the Rest – QB Devin Leary ($8,100) The NC State transfer is a massive upgrade over Will Levis as a passer, but a non-factor as a runner. Needs 200+ yards and three touchdowns to reach value at his pricing (doable). While we highlighted Robinson above, most would probably agree that WR Barion Brown ($5,500) and Dane Key ($5,200) are 1-2 in the pecking order after combining for 87 receptions and 10 TDs as freshman. We mentioned how OC Liam Coen likes to feature the slot. Well, Brown was moonlighting inside during the spring, plus he’s the team’s top returner to add more value. This will be a 50-50 balancing act on offense between the run and pass, so probably wouldn’t advise multiple receivers in a stack with Leary if choosing to go that route.
Injury Notes – n/a
Utah State vs. Iowa
Point-Spread: Iowa -25
O/U Total: 43
Implied Score: Iowa 34 – Utah St 9
Weather: 79 degrees / 0% rain / 15 mph winds
Utah State:
Was very surprised to see we have three players projected to hit double-digit fantasy points here against what I have as a top three CFF defense in 2023. More power to you if you think a 16.5-point projection for a $5.9k quarterback is good enough on a 14-game slate. The one component of the Utah State offense that we’re even mildly interested in is WR1 Terrell Vaughn ($5,000). The top wideout in Blake Anderson’s offenses have averaged 17.9 FPPG over the last nine seasons and Vaughn is expected to hold that mantle in 2023 after finishing last season second on the team in receptions (55) and targets (81).
Iowa:
Top Play(s) – RB Kaleb Johnson ($5,700) There are several factors driving the decline in offensive production at Iowa, but the offensive line has been a source of frustration over the last few years. Four starters returned last season along the offensive line, yet the group finished 128th nationally in line yards created, resulting in Iowa running backs combining to score the 11th fewest fantasy points in the entire country at their position. The Hawkeyes now enter 2023 in a similar situation with all five starters back, and a promising young runner in sophomore Kaleb Johnson, who led the team with 779 yards and six touchdowns. At this pricing, I’d imagine we see a decent ownership number for Johnson. Utah State is 121st in defensive returning production and was 78th in success rate.
Fade – Wide receivers. The tight ends for Iowa last year ranked 1st and 3rd, respectively in target share, and the Hawkeyes boast a pair of TEs that might be better than last year’s group.
Bargain Bin – TE Luke Lachey ($3,800) Just re-emphasizing the above. No significant drop-off, if at all, is expected going from Sam LaPorta to Luke Lachey as TE1 in 2023. 29% target share last year led the team for the Iowa TE1. The only concern here is that Iowa added Michigan transfer Erick All ($3,900) into the mix – a roommate and close friend of Cade McNamara. Does that influence where the targets are distributed?
Pivot Play – Exposure to anyone not named Kaleb Johnson or Luke Lachey This is still Iowa and it remains Brian Ferentz calling the plays.
Best of the Rest – n/a
Injury Notes – QB Cade McNamara ($6,600) Whether coach-speak or not, HC Kirk Ferentz indicated Thursday afternoon that he still expects McNamara to play on Saturday. Iowa quarterbacks are automatically eliminated from my potential player pool. Now how do you think I feel about one that is “questionable?”
East Carolina vs. Michigan
Point-Spread: UM -36
O/U Total: 51.5
Implied Score: UM 43.5 – ECU 8
Weather: 76 degrees / 0% rain / 13 mph winds
East Carolina:
Lowest implied total among FBS teams on the slate. Quick synopsis on the ECU offense for 2023. We do not have a Holton Ahlers and new starting QB Mason Garcia is a downgrade. There is no Keaton Mitchell on the roster this season and we’re anticipating a full-blown committee in the Pirates’ backfield. Not like we’d start a running back against this Michigan front either. Two potential options are WR Jaylen Johnson ($4,500) or WR Jsi Hatfield ($3,800) facing a Michigan defense that does have some turnover at the CB2 spot on the outside. Unfortunately for both Johnson and Hatfield, they’ll be covered by Michigan’s two best corners in Will Johnson and Mike Sainristil. Think this is a full-team fade.
Michigan:
Top Play(s) – QB J.J. McCarthy ($9,400) Yep. Not a Michigan running back as the top play. All the talk this offseason with the Wolverines is how they’ll be more balanced on offense in 2023, hoping to prepare the group for bigger things to come if they eventually make it back to the College Football Playoff like they’re expected to do for a third straight year. That means more passing from McCarthy, who also put on 15 pounds this offseason in hopes of more utilization on the ground as well. Admittedly this is more of a GPP play than cash games, but 20 points is the floor here with 30-point upside and likely low ownership. Jim Harbaugh is suspended to start the season by the NCAA so he will not be on the sidelines. Unfortunately for ECU, I think they’ll be on the receiving end of Harbaugh’s wrath towards the powers at be at the inept corporate level. Michigan will put it on ECU on Saturday.
Fade – RB Blake Corum ($6,900) This is not an outright fade, but I’d be willing to be underweight in GPP ownership here. Let’s get this out of the way first – Corum is at or near 100%. He’ll run behind one of the best offensive lines in the country again. But look at his numbers through the non-con last season and his minimal usage through the first two weeks. Coming off the injury, paired with a dynamic backup in Donovan Edwards, along with the notion that Michigan will throw more could mean >10 carries for the Heisman hopeful on Saturday.
Bargain Bin – Backup RBs. You’d think being a Michigan fan I would have a complete comprehension on the backup RB situation. Unfortunately, Harbaugh refuses to provide depth charts and the Wolverines are very deep at the position. I’d look towards two options if you’re in need of a min-priced player. 3-star freshman Benjamin Hall ($3,000) looks the part of the next Mike Hart after rushing for 70+ yards and a touchdown in Michigan’s spring game, and rumors are that upward trajectory hasn’t stopped. Kalel Mullings ($3,000) had a moment to forget in the TCU game last year, fumbling at the goal-line, but he could be set for red-zone touches again in 2023. The Wolverines had four rushing TDs in last year’s opener.
Pivot Play – Michigan WRs. Who winds up being Michigan’s primary target at receiver remains a mystery – though Roman Wilson ($5,000) was given the No. 1 jersey this past week. May not actually matter, though, because Wilson and Cornelius Johnson ($5,700) are the established top two, with almost no experience behind them. I suspect they’ll combine to have over 50% target share this season among the Michigan wideouts. Tyler Morris, Darrius Clemons and Peyton O’Leary will provide depth. I wouldn’t stack both Johnson/Wilson with McCarthy in lineups, but would advise pairing him with one.
Best of the Rest – TE Colston Loveland ($5,000) A $5K pricetag for a tight end might sound unreasonable unless your name is Brock Bowers. Well…the sophomore tight end is being compared to Bowers in Michigan circles and might be the most talented pass-catcher on the entire roster. We know Harbaugh loves throwing to tight ends, and Loveland is a massive red-zone option at 6-foot-5. Because of Michigan’s lack of depth at receiver, expect to see plenty of backup TE AJ Barner ($4,100), a former Indiana transfer, and RB Donovan Edwards ($6,200) in the passing game.
Injury Notes – n/a
Mercer vs. Ole Miss
Point-Spread: n/a
O/U Total: n/a
Implied Score: n/a
Weather: 81 degrees / 6% rain / 11 mph winds
Mercer:
We covered FCS on the weekly slates. Not playing anyone here on a 14-gamer.
Ole Miss:
Top Play(s) – RB Quinshon Judkins ($6,600) Usually when pricing is just too good to be true, that tends to play out that way. Looking back at last year’s blowout over Central Arkansas, Quinshon did top 100 yards on the ground, but only received 10 rushing attempts. We’ll assume the stud sophomore finds his way into the end-zone once or twice for the day, but envision the staff has a plan to keep him fresh for the rigorous SEC schedule down the road.
Fade – QBs. Something doesn’t feel right here. All reports continue to be that Jaxson Dart has had a great offseason, dating back to early in the spring, yet a starter has not been named. Spencer Sanders is still lurking around, and it wouldn’t be out of the ordinary for Lane Kiffin to do something unconventional. Does he split the reps between the two as a trial run for Tulane? Has Dart separated himself enough to get the entirety of the reps against an FCS opponent? Does Kiffin take to the air more in Week 1 to figure out what he has in the passing game? Very little clarity here.
Bargain Bin – TE Michael Trigg ($3,500) The greatest practice player in the world, yet rarely shows on gameday. Still, with the Caden Prieskorn injury, Trigg could be re-inserted into the starting lineup, and his three-touchdown outburst in 2022 did come against Central Arkansas.
Pivot Play – WR Tre Harris ($6,100) The former Louisiana Tech transfer should assume the WR1 role with Zakhari Franklin not playing, and both Jonathan Mingo/Malik Heath now graduated. WR1 under Lane Kiffin has averaged 7.58 targets over the last six seasons, and Harris is a big-play threat, averaging over 14.5 YPC. Probably sees lower ownership given the uncertainty at QB.
Best of the Rest – WR Jordan Watkins ($4,900) and Dayton Wade ($3,600) will round out the starting trio at receiver, though the two combined to score 20+ fantasy just twice last season. Both players averaged just 11 YPC. If there is a longshot dart throw, perhaps look to incoming true freshman WR Ayden Williams ($4,500) who has been one of the top receivers in practices. We projected Tre Harris as the top guy given his experience, but would not shock us to see Williams ascend immediately.
Injury Notes – WR Zakhari Franklin ($8,200) As of last week, or earlier this week (idk, all the days are starting to blur together) the UTSA transfer was still not practicing after arriving over the summer. He’s likely out a few weeks to start the year. The newest development as of Wednesday is that Caden Prieskorn ($3,800) may not play either on Saturday after injuring his foot, per the Ole Miss 247 site. Would not consider him even if deemed available given the matchup.
Portland State vs. Oregon
Point-Spread: n/a
O/U Total: n/a
Implied Score: n/a
Weather: 68 degrees / 34% rain / 7 mph winds
Portland:
We covered FCS on the weekly slates. Not playing anyone here on a 14-gamer.
Oregon:
Top Play(s) – RB Bucky Irving ($6,100) Safest play from a cost acquisition is Irving who we know is solidified in his role as the RB1 and likely to find the end-zone as he did a year ago in Oregon’s matchup with an FCS team. Upside? Probably not likely as he’ll only see between 8-12 carries as Oregon does retain its depth in the backfield with RB2 Noah Whittington ($5,000). Not paying a hefty price tag here, though.
Fade – WR Kris Hutson ($5,400) Several new additions to the Oregon receiving room this offseason with a trio of transfers in Traeshon Holden (Alabama), Gary Bryant Jr. (USC) and Tez Johnson (Troy. The WR1 is undisputed here. Who’s next after that is up for debate. Could be Johnson, the adoptive brother of Bo Nix. FWIW – new offensive coordinator Will Stein comes over from UTSA and did produce three top tier fantasy receivers with the Roadrunners. Does the same thing happen here? Projected depth charts for the Ducks show Hutson has fallen to the WR2 in the slot behind Tez Johnson ($6,800).
Bargain Bin – TE Terrance Ferguson ($3,900) If using Oregon’s FCS matchup last year as a replica for Week 1, Ferguson caught two touchdown passes in the 70-point explosion.
Pivot Play – Bo Nix ($10,100) I’m having flashbacks to last year when writing up Oregon and Bo Nix. Is the inflated salary worth the price of admission? Well, looking back to last year as a frame of reference, against Eastern Washington, Nix completed 85% of his passes for five touchdowns. Not much usage on the ground, which is to be expected against an overmatched opponent, so we’ll need Nix to get it done through the air. Our 25-point projection would suggest fading at cost, though. Hopefully don’t get burned like we did a few times last year for employing this exact strategy.
Best of the Rest – RB Jordan James ($3,300) Four running backs scored rushing touchdowns against Eastern Washington last year. James, a 4-star recruit, should be third in line behind Irving/Whittington. WR Traeshon Holden ($5,100) appears to have won the starting job opposite Troy Franklin ($7,700). Meanwhile, the undisputed WR1 is Franklin in this room and should benefit even more from a scheme change that is expected to take more deep shots with Stein calling plays. Franklin had 10 receptions in the FCS matchup last season.
Injury Notes – n/a
Tennessee State vs. Notre Dame
Point-Spread: n/a
O/U Total: n/a
Implied Score: n/a
Weather: 85 degrees / 0% rain / 15 mph winds
Tenn State:
We covered FCS on the weekly slates. Not playing anyone here on a 14-gamer.
Notre Dame:
Top Play(s) – QB Sam Hartman ($9,700) Normally this will be Audric Estime, but the Irish proved last week that they have considerable depth in the backfield behind him. Combine that with the development of a few promising receiving options, and we’ll roll with guy we know is touching the ball every play. With that said, we only have a 19.9-point projection here this week as we don’t expect Hartman to do anything with his legs. Need him to throw at least three scores to achieve value, but one of the higher floors among QBs for the slate.
Fade – WR Chris Tyree ($4,900) Starter in name only. We’re going to want to see some other options in the passing game with higher upside than a slot receiver who posted an aDOT of just 5.8 yards on four targets.
Bargain Bin – RB Jeremiyah Love ($3,200) Suspect we’ll see even more rotation this week at running back in a blowout situation, and Love looked excellent last week in limited carries, rushing for 40 yards on four touches. Think we’ll see five running backs get playing time is the trouble here.
Pivot Play – WR Tobias Merriweather ($5,600) I promise I am not advocating rostering Merriweather this week. Just want to state facts here that the sophomore receiver did run the most routes against Navy of any wideout on the team. One of his two targets should’ve also resulted in a touchdown had Sam Hartman did not airmail the pass. We’ll see if rotations change this week after Merriweather didn’t record a single catch, but he was on the field a ton vs. Navy.
Best of the Rest – WR Jayden Thomas ($6,600) and Jaden Greathouse ($5,000) The prized freshman Greathouse stole the headlines with two touchdowns in his debut. More importantly going forward, I think it was also established that Thomas is the clear-cut WR1 and preferred option for Hartman, converting on all four of his targets while also finding the end-zone. All fall camp reports suggested Thomas emerged as the top guy, and that came to fruition from our vantage point.
Injury Notes – n/a
Rice vs. Texas
Point-Spread: Tex -35
O/U Total: 59
Implied Score: Tex 47 – Rice 12
Weather: 85 degrees / 43% rain / 7 mph winds
Rice:
We wondered last year if the Owls were changing their offensive philosophy under HC Mike Bloomgren, and the answer was a resounding yes. Would we consider Rice a pass-first offense? No, but they threw the football 47% of the time in 2022, 5% more than in 2021. It’s noteworthy that the Owls brought in transfer quarterback QB JT Daniels ($5,800), who has played in an Air Raid style offense for the majority of his collegiate career. Rice will have to throw it Saturday, but Daniels is a statue in the pocket and the implied team total of 12 doesn’t indicate much success is expected. While we’re not interested in Daniels, two of his pass-catchers are intriguing. WR Luke McCaffrey ($7,100) is the undisputed WR1 though this might not be the matchup to roster him at cost. He’ll get 100 targets in 2023. The other is UCLA transfer WR Matt Sykes ($3,800) who was listed as a starter on the two deep. With Brad Rozner transfer, the 6-foot-4 Sykes should assume the red-zone role that produced 10 TDs last season.
Texas:
Top Play(s) – RB Jonathon Brooks ($5,300) There’s a good chance both hit value in this matchup, but 5-star FR Cedric Baxter ($5,500) should not be priced ahead of Brooks. Been some noise that Baxter has been making a push to the top spot, but that contradicts what was predicted a few weeks back by the beat writer in that Brooks will be the “workhorse” in the Texas backfield. We do know that there aren’t many coaches in CFB who produce more top-tier fantasy RBs than Steve Sarkisian. RB1 has averaged 22.3 FPPG and 43% backfield market share in Sark’s last seven collegiate seasons. FWIW – we predict both RBs find paydirt on Saturday.
Fade – WR Jordan Whittington ($4,700) Trusted veteran in the slot, but Texas has exponentially more weapons this season than in year’s past, adding Adonai Mitchell ($5,500) from Georgia and return WR Isaiah Neyor ($3,400) who returns from a season-long injury. Not enough targets to go around.
Bargain Bin – WR Johntay Cook ($3,000) Adding to the surplus of weapons is the 4-star freshman that received the most hype of any first-year wideout this offseason in Cook. Slender build at 175 pounds, but Cook is a terrific athlete and route runner that has the ability to blow past defenders at the LOS. His spring ascension continued in the fall, even filling in for Whittington in the slot while he was injured. Should this game get out of hand, Cook will get rotational reps.
Pivot Play – QB Quinn Ewers ($7,700) and WR Xavier Worthy ($6,600) Countless times last season this pairing disappointed us with drops and missed opportunities on inaccurate passes. While Rice is 25th in returning defensive production, that’s not necessarily a good thing when looking at the matchup with a Ewers/Worthy pairing. 120th in explosiveness allowed through the air and 102nd in pass play success rate. I’ll be incorporating this stack in a few lineups in the hopes they’ve re-established their connection on downfield throws.
Best of the Rest – TE JaTavion Sanders ($3,700) I do believe Sanders will get squeezed some in the target share distribution because of all the added weapons at receiver. That doesn’t mean he won’t be efficient, converting on 75% of his targets a year ago with the second-most touchdowns on the team. $3.7k is too cheap for this caliber of player.
Injury Notes – n/a
Boise State vs. Washington
Point-Spread: UW -14.5
O/U Total: 59
Implied Score: UW 36.5 – Boise St 22
Weather: 72 degrees / 4% rain / 6 mph winds
Boise State:
Top Play(s) – RB Ashton Jeanty ($4,200) Arguably one of the more baffling decisions of a player returning to school was George Holani coming back for his senior season after posting a career-high 1,157 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2022. Boise State did revamp their NIL program and Holani wasn’t necessarily guaranteed to be an NFL Draft selection, but this is a player that has missed time over the course of his collegiate career due to injury. More importantly, there’s an ascending player in Ashton Jeanty who will push for more playing time after rushing for 821 yards and seven scores as a freshman. With Holani sitting out of spring ball, Jeanty made the most of his opportunity with nearly 200 yards of total offense in the final scrimmage. Might we see a 50-50 split between Holani and Jeanty in 2023? New offensive coordinator Bush Hamdan does not have an extensive track record to know for certain how this backfield split will shake out.
Fade – WRs. Game script will likely dictate Boise State throwing more than 41.5% of the time like they did a year ago, but this group severely underperformed in 2022, and lost their top wideout, Latrell Caples, to a season-long injury in the offseason. I understand the notion of pairing someone with Taylen Green if that’s the route you choose, but do not play more than one. Targets were distributed evenly among the top three last season, so there is no target hog amongst the group.
Bargain Bin – WR Eric McAlister ($4,100) If choosing one receiver, McAlister might be the most intriguing at 6-foot-4, 200 pounds. His close to last season was impressive with three touchdowns in the final three games. Again, this is not expected to be a high-volume passing attack, and McAlister’s game logs reflect that with just 12 targets in those three weeks.
Pivot Play – QB Taylen Green ($6,800) Green’s passing leaves a lot to be desired, though we’ll see what steps he’s taken this offseason, but a 25-point projection at $6.8k makes him a very reasonable play with a positive game script. The appeal is Green’s rushing ability, hitting 100 yards on the ground three times in 10 starts with 10 rushing TDs. As we stated above, no need to pair him with a receiver if inserting into your lineup.
Best of the Rest – RB George Holani ($6,800) We would not advise playing Holani here. For starters, Jeanty is the better player at cheaper cost. Holani is also a notably slow starter looking back at previous seasons. 76 rushing yards combined in the first two games last season, one of which against another Pac-12 opponent that limited him to just nine yards.
Injury Notes – n/a
Washington:
Top Play(s) – QB Michael Penix Jr. ($8,400) Boise State will present some challenges in the secondary as they were a top 10 pass defense a year ago, but lose two All-Mountain West caliber players on the backend, so a drop off of sorts is expected. As the 10th highest salary among QBs, Penix Jr. feels like a plug and play here with high floor/high upside, as projections have him hitting the 300-yard bonus. Prop markets also agree.
Fade – WR Giles Jackson ($4,700) The former Michigan transfer may not play this season with a thumb injury. The reason I wanted to put Jackson here is because outside of the Big 3 for Washington is a pair of supremely talented underclassmen in Germie Bernard and true FR Denzel Boston. May not happen if the game is tight as Washington will lean on its top playmakers, but Bernard/Boston are also too talented to keep off the field entirely. One outlandish prediction from the team’s beat writer is that Boston makes a “wow” type moment on Saturday, fwiw.
Bargain Bin – RB Will Nixon ($3,300) With Dillon Johnson hampered some during fall camp, Nixon was mixing in with the first-team offense some. That is now a near guarantee to take place on Saturday with Johnson back from injury and previous starter Cameron Davis now lost for the season. HC Kalen DeBoer has almost exclusively run a committee approach the last two years with the RB2 garnering over 27% volume share. Davis, last year’s RB2, posted double-digit rushing touchdowns. Nixon will figure into the game plan on Saturday.
Pivot Play – WR Jalen McMillan ($6,900) Rome Odunze gets the headlines, and rightfully so, but Jalen McMillan ain’t far behind. 21 and 20 percent target share, respectively, last year between the two so minimal difference in production, yet we get a $400 discount. Our suggestion here with the Washington passing game is to just choose one guy to pair with Penix. Boise State’s secondary presents enough of a challenge to not completely stack the entire passing game.
Best of the Rest – RB Dillon Johnson ($5,200) With Cameron Davis out of the picture, the Mississippi State transfer is set to be the RB1 in an offense that posted 33 rushing touchdowns in 2022 – the highest mark ever for a Kalen DeBoer offense. Coming over from Miss State, we also know that Johnson is exceptional in the passing game, and will enter an offensive scheme that features the RB plenty in the passing game, where the RB1 averages 31 targets a season.
Injury Notes – RB Cameron Davis and WR Giles Jackson are not expected to play.
Ohio State vs. Indiana
Point-Spread: OSU -30
O/U Total: 60
Implied Score: OSU 45 – Ind 15
Weather: 83 degrees / 0% rain / 12 mph winds
Ohio State:
Top Play(s) – WR Marvin Harrison Jr. ($9,100) A player that needs no introduction. Would venture a strong guess that Harrison Jr. sees a boat load of targets early on from his former high school teammate Kyle McCord as the first-year starting QB eases into one of the biggest games of his life in the impending quarterback battle. 18.5-point projection at this pricing is reasonable, but there are a lot of WR options on this 14-game slate at cheaper prices. Might want to limit exposure as we get our first looks at the new QBs.
Fade – WR Julian Fleming ($5,900) At some point this season, our prediction is that this once 5-star prospect in Fleming will get surpassed on the depth chart by one of the star-studded recruits from the 2023 class. Likeliest candidate being WR Carnell Tate ($3,700) whom Harrison Jr. said is “in a better spot now than he was entering last season.” Eyes emoji. 57% of the target share last season went to Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka, so there’s not a ton of room for a third or fourth option in the passing game.
Bargain Bin – See above on Carnell Tate.
Pivot Play – RB TreVeyon Henderson ($7,800) With the quarterback auditions playing out in a meaningful B1G contest, I would imagine that the Buckeyes lean on the ground game and their talented stable of RBs. The problem is that Ohio State has five of them. But all the right things were said about Henderson this offseason after a trying 2022 season that was hampered by injury. I do think at price that RB Miyan Williams ($6,500) is playable as well (though not in the same lineup together). Working in Williams’ favor over Henderson is that he had a 32-14 advantage in red-zone carries in 2022.
Best of the Rest – QB Situation. I found a fun article from an Ohio State affiliate website that three writers placed prop bets on several players for this Indiana matchup. At a line of 275 passing yards for Kyle McCord ($9,900), all three selected under. Not a huge surprise considering HC Ryan Day came out and said that QB Devin Brown ($8,500) will also share snaps, but notable to me the lead writer questioned if McCord will even get to 200 yards passing. Whomever is out there should be able to support the talented receivers – these are 5-star quarterbacks for crying out loud – but probably best to avoid this platoon at QB.
Injury Notes – n/a
Indiana:
Top Play(s) – WR Cam Camper ($5,500) How truthful is HC Tom Allen being in that Camper will be a Day 1 starter? We’ll check on that pregame because when healthy, the former JUCO transfer was scorching hot out of the gate in 2022, posting 46 receptions on 82 targets in seven games. His per-game target averages were the tops in the nation. Indiana does have increased depth at the wide receiver position, so we don’t believe Camper will generate that high a target share, but he’s Indiana’s best offensive playmaker.
Fade – QBs. Allen said that they’ve named a starter, but we won’t know until pregame warmups who that is. From a volume and pace perspective, the Indiana passing game is intriguing in that they threw the ball 55% of the time in 2022 and were top 10 nationally in pace. The issue is that between Tayven Jackson and Brendan Sorsby, they’ve thrown all of 10 passes combined in college. If you’re hellbent on playing the QB1 because of the cheap price, fast pace and game script, I understand the logic. But I’d sprinkle that in one lineup max.
Bargain Bin – RB Jaylin Lucas ($3,500) Indiana will be a committee at running back, just as they were last season, but Lucas interests us slightly at this pricing because he’s an all-around weapon that will flex out into the slot at times. Per Allen, “Lucas can do anything that a wide receiver or running back can do.” 10+ touches is the expectation here, which is worth the price of admission.
Pivot Play – WR E.J. Williams ($3,000) Should Allen be lying to us and Camper is a starter in name only (aka limited), the former Clemson transfer likely ascends to the WR1 status in his place. While he flamed out with the Tigers, Williams is a talented former 4-star prospect that did catch a touchdown in the team’s spring game. I’d be very tempted here if Camper is out.
Best of the Rest – RB Josh Henderson ($5,000) Henderson will play a role in the RB rotation alongside Lucas and Wake Forest transfer Christian Turner, but his primary value last season came as a receiver with 24 receptions and four touchdowns on 29 targets. Not worth the $5k here as they’ll rotate frequently but provides some value with his receiving abilities.
Injury Notes – Monitor pregame reports on Cam Camper to see if he’s limited at all.
Buffalo vs. Wisconsin
Point-Spread: Wisc -27.5
O/U Total: 55
Implied Score: Wisc 41 – Buff 14.5
Weather: 86 degrees / 1% rain / 18 mph winds
Wisconsin:
Top Play(s) – RB Braelon Allen ($6,700) The days of starting running backs receiving 250- plus carries in Madison might be a thing of the past with Wisconsin finally transitioning their offense out of the stone age. theCFFSite projections still call for a healthy statistical season from Braelon Allen, but Phil Longo’s track record suggests that his volume will be down. Not once in the last nine seasons that Longo has been a play-caller has his RB1 surpassed 200 rushing attempts, with the average being around 163 carries. That said, those nine seasons also include the RB1 surpassing 1,000 rushing yards six times, while averaging a healthy 17.5 FPPG.
Fade – TEs Longo TE1s average just 2.1 targets per game, and the two most experienced options on the roster left the team before fall camp began. Probably saw the writing on the wall about how tight ends are utilized in this scheme, in that…. they aren’t.
Bargain Bin – n/a. There isn’t a major contributor on the Wisconsin offense below $4k that you can use as a punt play.
Pivot Play – QB Tanner Mordecai ($8,900) Have a hunch that a portion of DFS players on Saturday will see Wisconsin quarterback and immediately dismiss it, not realizing there is a new sheriff in town Longo. On average, Longo’s offenses throw the ball 11 more times per game than the traditional Wisconsin offenses have over the last nine years. Mordecai was absolutely brutal in the spring after coming over from SMU, throwing four interceptions in the spring game. That seemed to be rectified during fall camp, and no shortage of weapons to throw to at wideout. Buffalo’s defense was above average against the pass in 2022, but return just five starters on that side of the ball with a lot of roster turnover.
Best of the Rest – WR Will Pauling ($5,100) Tendencies are key in researching offensive coordinators and which spots on the field are preferable in certain schemes. We’re ultimately unsure as to who the true No. 1 receiver is for Wisconsin, but here’s what we do know. Five of the last six WR1s under Longo have been slot receivers. That would be Cincinnati transfer Will Pauling. Are we expecting Josh Downs-like production? No. But 100 targets for the season isn’t out of the question. Of note, Wisconsin can roll seven-deep at wideout with Chimere Dike, Bryson Green (Oklahoma State), CJ Williams (USC), along with holdovers Skyler Bell and Keontez Lewis. We envision the Badgers having success throwing the football but want to see how the targets will be distributed. Probably wise to invest in one wideout to pair with Mordecai.
Injury Notes – n/a
Buffalo:
For those of you that signed up for the site for DFS content, here’s our writeup from the CFFSite on the Buffs. Let’s see if you have much interest after reading this:
Does Buffalo have the messiest depth chart for CFF? Unless we get confirmation during the summer on a player that is guaranteed a starting job and a defined role within the offense, we’re steering clear of the Bulls until regular season waivers occur. Their top three rushers, Ron Cook Jr., Mike Washington, and Al-Jay Henderson, are all back. Good for the team, but bad for CFF, as a Buffalo running back attempted 20 carries in a game just twice in 2022. New offensive coordinator DJ Mangas utilized a committee approach the last time he was a play caller in 2017-18 at William & Mary. 247 targets at wide receiver have been vacated with Justin Marshall, Quian Williams, and Jamari Gassett no longer on the roster. Potential starters Marlyn Johnson and Duke transfer Darrell Harding Jr. have a combined 58 receptions in 67 career games. The only sure-fire starter is quarterback Cole Snyder, who averaged 19.7 FPPG last season (QB74), and Mangas employed a run-first offense with W&M, so the volume of passes won’t increase with the new OC. Let’s see what transpires during their non-conference slate before utilizing a CFF roster spot with anyone here.
