Rutgers vs. Boston College
Point-Spread: BC -7.5
O/U Total: 47.5
Implied Score: BC 27.5 – Rutgers 20
Weather: 74 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Rutgers:
Top Play(s) – n/a Not expecting a shootout here, and this has been one of the worst offenses in the country from a fantasy standpoint. We don’t know who will start at quarterback, are expecting a RBBC in the backfield and Rutgers will utilize 5-6 wide receivers in a constant rotation.
Fade – WRs We have four receivers projected between 7-11 fantasy points. Additional depth with transfers Sean Ryan and Taj Harris are good for the football team overall, but muddy the room in terms of fantasy production. Our prediction is there will not be a Bo Melton 30% target share wideout like it’s been the last two seasons.
Bargain Bin – QB Gavin Wimsatt ($4,700) HC Greg Schiano has said he’s not afraid to play multiple quarterbacks on Saturday, but everything we read continues to point to Wimsatt as the starter. Threw for just 30 yards in the bowl game the last time we saw Wimsatt, but the former 4-star recruit can scoot out of the pocket and make things happen with his legs.
Pivot Play – RB Kyle Monangai ($4,700) Aaron Young is recovering from a knee injury and has been limited in camp following offseason surgery. Should Young be unavailable, expect Kyle Monangai to get the bulk of the carries, along with possibly freshman Samuel Brown. Not a priority, though, as Rutgers RB1 a year ago averaged just 8.5 FPPG.
Best of the Rest – WR Joshua Youngblood ($3,200) The former Kansas State transfer is the only wide receiver on the depth chart to not have an ‘OR’ designation beside him. Per Schiano, “Josh is going to be a big part of our offense,” Schiano said. He is an incredibly hard-working guy who is talented and a big part of our special teams. I think he is a guy we rely on.” OW (offensive weapon) Johnny Langan ($3,400) is Rutgers’ Swiss army knife as he posted 18 receptions, 109 rushing yards and threw a touchdown pass in 2021.
Injury Notes – See above on Aaron Young. Not sure where his status is at entering Saturday.
Boston College:
Top Play(s) – WR Zay Flowers ($6,300) Zay Flowers finished last season averaging 2.27 yards per routes run which was tied for 126th nationally among FBS receivers (min. 20 targets). In games where Phil Jurkovec started last season, that number was 3.21 yards per route run. Well, we have a healthy Jurkovec on Saturday, and Flowers is very reasonably priced. Everything written about Flowers this offseason has pointed to him getting fed the football.
Fade – RB Pat Garwo ($6,900) A ton of roster turnover along the offensive line for BC where essentially is replacing the entire group. Also a group that did not perform up to expectations a year ago. Rutgers could take a step back this year as they’re replacing the entire linebacking corps, but have generally stopped the run well since Schiano returned as HC. Garwo is a touchdown-dependent option as he comes off the field on third downs with his limitations as a pass-catcher and pass protector.
Bargain Bin – TE George Takacs ($3,300) Boston College has utilized the position heavily since Jeff Hafley arrived, and new offensive coordinator John McNulty was formerly a TE position coach. Takacs is a Notre Dame transfer that is expected to have an immediate impact, and brings a ton of size at 6-foot-6.
Pivot Play – n/a
Best of the Rest – QB Phil Jurkovec ($6,300) I do wonder if BC tries to limit Jurkovec as a runner, as he’s the key to their season, but even coming back from injury last year the QB1 averaged over 12 carries a game with five rushing scores. Scored 26 FPPG in the five games he was healthy last season.
Injury Notes – n/a
NC State vs. East Carolina
Point-Spread: NC St -11.5
O/U Total: 51.5
Implied Score: NC St 31.5 – ECU 20
Weather: 85 degrees / 10% rain / 5 mph winds
NC State:
Top Play(s) – QB Devin Leary ($7,500) We don’t expect Leary to replicate his 35-5 touchdown to interception ratio like he did last year, but the NC State quarterback was one of the most consistent options in college fantasy, scoring 20 or more points in his last four games.
Fade – RB Jordan Houston ($5,900) Houston is the clear-cut RB1 at a modest price, so this isn’t the worst play, but also not one we’re rushing to play. NC State does return four starters on the line, but lost their best linemen to the NFL Draft, and averaged just 126 yards per game on the ground last year. An NC State running back score more than 20 fantasy points just twice last year, coincidentally by both Ricky Person and Zonovan Knight in the opener.
Bargain Bin – WR Keyon Lesane ($3,700) Listed as a starter on the depth chart, the WR3 for NC State has averaged 32 receptions and four touchdowns the last two seasons.
Pivot Play – WR Thayer Thomas ($6,200) and Devin Carter ($6,000) NC State receivers have been fade plays the last two years, but there are 89 vacated targets with Emeka Emezie now graduated. Neither player has accounted for more than 22% target share in two years as the distribution is usually split.
Best of the Rest – TE Trent Pennix ($3,500) Longshot play with Pennix, but there are some indications he might play the Jaylen Samuels-type role from a year ago as a hybrid tight end.
Injury Notes – n/a
East Carolina:
Top Play(s) – WR C.J. Johnson ($4,000) Once thought to be off the team after a spring suspension, Johnson is back on the roster and the likely starter in the slot now, formerly held by Tyler Snead who led the team in receptions the last three seasons. Snead was targeted 86 times per year on average.
Fade – QB Holton Ahlers ($6,100) A big reason as to why NC State is a popular selection to win the ACC this year? 84% returning production on a defense that ranked 14th in scoring, allowing just 19.7 PPG. That includes a secondary that has all four starters back, along with their top nickelback. Projections have Ahlers at just 18 fantasy points this week.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – TE Ryan Jones ($5,300) Nobody will roster a tight end at $5,300 unless your name is Michael Mayer or Brock Bowers. But a recent article published by the ECU beat writer called for the 6-foot-3 tight end to possibly lead the Pirates in receptions in 2022. Jones was excellent in the final month of last season, averaging 14 FPPG in that span.
Best of the Rest – RB Keaton Mitchell ($6,700) does have a solid projection of around 17 fantasy points, but we’ll be fading for all the similar reasons we gave for Ahlers above. As dynamic as Mitchell is, this will remain a shared backfield with Rahjai Harris as they accounted for 36% and 34% of the volume share, respectively. WRs Isaiah Winstead ($4,400) might be worth a look at his pricing. The Toledo transfer averaged 15 YPC in two seasons with the Rockets.
Injury Notes – n/a
North Carolina vs. Appalachian State
Point-Spread: App State -1.5
O/U Total: 56.5
Implied Score: App State 29 – UNC 27.5
Weather: 73 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
North Carolina:
Top Play(s) – RB Omarion Hampton ($3,000) This would easily be Josh Downs, but as stated below, his status for Saturday does not look promising. Hampton was everything we thought he’d be last week and more, rushing for 101 yards and two touchdowns on 14 carries. Not often can you get starting running backs like this at min pricing, but I’m also not forcing him in lineups like we did last week, as the opponent is now a step up in class.
Fade – RB D.J. Jones ($7,000) Further proof that depth charts aren’t always what they appear. Jones appeared in the backfield on the first drive before giving way to the freshmen for most of the game vs. Florida A&M, finishing with minimal yardage. Maybe they lean on the veteran more in what should be a close game, but you won’t pay to find out at that pricing.
Bargain Bin – WR Bryson Nesbit ($3,200) Downs was the target hog last week, but the tight end position was utilized heavily, foremost being Nesbit who was tied for second on the team with five targets. With no clear-cut WR2 on the team, Nesbit looks to be the second option in the passing game that can be flexed in the slot and line up outside at receiver. His value is enhanced if Downs does not play.
Pivot Play – WR Gavin Blackwell ($4,000) Increased tight end usage is probably the biggest alteration in the UNC offense should Downs be out, but Blackwell will undoubtedly see more targets as a result. Was tied for second with Nesbit last week with five targets and found the end-zone.
Best of the Rest – QB Drake Maye ($7,100) Maye was off-target on some throws last week, but you couldn’t have asked for a better performance for his first career start, tossing five touchdowns with zero turnovers. How good must Jacolby Criswell be if this competition was supposedly “neck and neck.” Appalachian State returns two starters in the secondary. I do worry about Maye this week though should his go-to target not be available.
Injury Notes – WR Josh Downs ($8,200) Line movement has flipped this week to App State -1.5, which might signal that Downs won’t be available Saturday. Sources on the UNC message boards are stating that Downs has been hobbled this week with the knee injury, and wouldn’t be surprised if he misses more than a week of action.
Appalachian State:
Top Play(s) – RB Cam Peoples ($4,900) The most bankable part of the Appalachian State offense has always been the running game, and that is where most of the returning production from last year is as the Mountaineers bring back every notable rusher and four starters on the OL. App State will split reps between Peoples and Noel, but there is a massive disparity between the two as to who gets the goal-line carries. Far greater chance Peoples rumbles into the end-zone.
Fade – QB Chase Brice ($6,900) Brice was tremendous last season, throwing two or more touchdowns in 60% of the games played, though he did only score 14 fantasy points against another ACC foe last year in Miami. Biggest reason we are fading here – App State lost 77% of their receiving production from last year with all three starters gone at WR.
Bargain Bin – WR Christian Wells ($4,600) We’re getting a pretty good implied total here, and even the App State beat writer is predicting 35 points for the Mountaineers Saturday. A rebuilt receiving corps, but Wells has been a rotational player for a while now. Last time out in the bowl game vs. Western Kentucky, Wells was targeted six times, posting 4-86-1. Sounds as though UNC defensive back Tony Grimes may not play either which would be a boost to the App State passing game.
Pivot Play – RB Nate Noel ($5,300) If rostering an App State running back, Peoples will be the popular play. And for good reason. But the facts are that this is a split backfield with Noel who actually garnered more of the market share (35%) last season over Peoples.
Best of the Rest – 257 vacated targets and App State won’t just be able to run down UNC’s throats most likely. Along with Wells, Dashaun Davis ($4,500) and Christian Horn ($5,500) landed starting jobs on the two-deep. Preference of Horn > Davis.
Injury Notes – n/a
Buffalo vs. Maryland
Point-Spread: MD -24.5
O/U Total: 64.5
Implied Score: MD 44.5 – Buffalo 21
Weather: 84 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
Buffalo:
Top Play(s) – WR Quian Williams ($5,200) Was Buffalo’s top playmaker a year ago with 65 receptions on 102 targets. There is thought that Buffalo will throw more this year with new personnel at receiver and quarterback and will be forced to most likely as a three-touchdown dog. The lone issue is that Buffalo added multiple P5 transfers at receiver, so 100 targets may not happen again.
Fade – TE Robbie Mangas ($3,000) TE1 last season for Buffalo had 26 total targets, and the Bulls upgraded their WR room via the transfer portal. Doubt Mangas is much of a factor at all.
Bargain Bin – QB Cole Snyder ($5,500) Snyder is only an option here if you think this game shoots out and you stack it, which might be possibly considering we’re getting three touchdowns projected. OC Shane Montgomery’s offenses, over the last eight years, have averaged 25.1 pass attempts per game. Last year with Buffalo, that number was 30.6. And now entering 2022, the personnel absolutely screams more passing. Not advising you go heavy here, but if creating 100 lineups, maybe this gets some play.
Pivot Play – RB Ron Cook Jr. ($5,700) Running backs for teams that are heavy underdogs rarely see high ownership in DFS. But Cook Jr. is a tremendous asset in the passing game – 23 receptions in 2021 – and this is an offensive system that has produced six 1,000-yard rushers in the last eight seasons. There are a pair of redshirt freshmen nipping at his heels to take the starting job away, but Cook Jr. will get the first crack.
Best of the Rest – WR Justin Marshall ($4,400) A Louisville transfer with 36 career receptions. Marshall will provide much-needed size to this WR group at 6-foot-3. Likely the second option behind Williams.
Injury Notes – n/a
Maryland:
Top Play(s) – QB Taulia Tagovailoa ($8,700) Probably going to be a popular play this week, but we’ll give you a way to differentiate below. What I love about Tagovailoa this week is we kind of know exactly what to expect with him. In September last season vs. non-conference opponents (and Illinois), Tagovailoa scored 29, 27, 24 and 30 fantasy points in consecutive weeks with 10 touchdown passes and zero interceptions. Buffalo is replacing half of their starting secondary with outside transfers.
Fade – TE Corey Dyches ($4,600) Originally projected as a Top 15 CFF tight end, Dyches is sitting on the second line of the Maryland depth chart behind CJ Dippre. Not giving up hope yet for his long-term outlook, but an easy fade for the week as we look towards the strength of the Terps with their WR corps.
Bargain Bin – RB Roman Hemby ($4,000) The 200-pound redshirt freshman outplayed Colby McDonald in fall camp according to the Maryland 247 beat writer, so the depth chart is accurate. In a normal matchup, Hemby would be a fade as Mike Locksley’s offense typically has a RBBC. The RB1 has accounted for over 30% volume share just once in the last six seasons. But pricewise, Hemby is definitely in play with a favorable matchup.
Pivot Play – Double stack MD WRs Love this potential play in GPP settings as I have a hunch Maryland could go full Air Raid at times this year. Four WR designations were listed on the depth chart, along with a tight end. We have Tagovailoa projected at over 300 yards passing, with some books having his projection closer to 350.
Best of the Rest – WR Jacob Copeland ($4,200) The Florida transfer will likely be the third option behind Rakim Jarrett and Dontay Demus, but impressed in the team’s spring game with two receiving touchdowns. Absolutely in play at pricing.
Injury Notes – WR Dontay Demus Jr. ($6,800) Fully recovered after his gruesome season-ending injury a year ago, and ready to assume his “alpha” role in the Maryland WR room.
Sam Houston State vs. Texas A&M
Point-Spread: n/a
O/U Total: n/a
Implied Score: n/a
Weather: 78 degrees / 71% rain / 1 mph winds
Sam Houston State:
27 FBS teams on this slate. We are not rostering anyone from Sam Houston State.
Texas A&M:
Top Play(s) – WR Evan Stewart ($4,800) Sounds like the Aggies are going to want to get a look at the passing game this week against an inferior opponent to see what they have moving forward through the season. From a point per dollar standpoint, I’ll take a chance on the 5-star freshman who is already being deemed the best receiver on the team. Good opportunity to highlight a future star in front of the donors that paid for him, lol.
Fade – WR Ainias Smith ($7,400) Simply put, the Aggies know what they have in the senior receiver. And Smith missed time in fall camp due to injury. I highly doubt he plays more than 30 snaps at best.
Bargain Bin – WR Yulkeith Brown ($3,000) Gigem 247 called Brown ‘the most exciting player at this position,’ listed behind Smith on the depth chart. Should Smith play half the game, Brown looks like next man up. Extreme longshot play though.
Pivot Play – QB Haynes King ($8,500) The question marks surrounding this A&M offense reside in the passing game. And that means Week 1 vs. an FCS opponent is the perfect opportunity to work out any kinks. Look to last year’s matchup with Kent State in the opener where King threw it 33 times. Only results in 22 fantasy points, but if we get that kind of volume again this year, I like King’s chances at surpassing 25+ points.
Best of the Rest – RB Devon Achane ($7,600) is a star, but how much run does he get in a blowout? Good news for him is, with his explosiveness, Achane can reach value on 10 carries. Per Pro Football Focus, the junior running back has broken 53 tackles on 173 career attempts and earned a rushing grade of over 90.0 in each of the last two years. Also, per PFF, 20.8% of Achane’s runs turned into gains of 10 yards or more, and 37.7% of his carries resulted in either a first down or touchdown. Amari Daniels ($6,300) and LJ Johnson ($4,700) will split backup duties.
Injury Notes – What was stated above Ainias Smith. Appears healthy but was dinged up during fall practices.
Colorado State vs. Michigan
Point-Spread: Mich -30.5
O/U Total: 61.5
Implied Score: Mich 46 – CSU 15.5
Weather: 85 degrees / 0% rain / 8 mph winds
Colorado State:
Top Play(s) – WR Melquan Stovall ($4,100) Priced low enough to where I think we could potentially consider Stovall here, particularly in a full-point PPR setting like DraftKings. The clear WR2 for Colorado State, we’re projecting close to 60 receptions and close to 80 targets for Stovall in 2022. Michigan has some turnover in the secondary, and Stovall will be matched up with a defensive back who played wide receiver last year.
Fade – RB A’Jon Vivens ($5,000) Vivens should be a solid play later on in the season in MWC play where the RB1 under Jay Norvell has averaged 13.3 FPPG the last four years…but not this week. Michigan lost its premier pass rushers to the NFL but will be stout in the middle at defensive tackle and linebacker. Colorado State will have trouble running the ball vs. this front.
Bargain Bin – TE Tanner Arkin ($3,400) The redshirt freshman popped up on spring reports while projected starter Gary Williams was nursing injury, but Arkin held serve and was listed as the starter on the fall two-deep. Norvell, coming over from Nevada, fed his tight end the last two seasons with Cole Turner who combined for 111 receptions and 19 touchdowns in that span.
Pivot Play – QB Clay Millen ($5,500) Likely to have less than 1% ownership in bigger GPPs, Millen will face a secondary that has some new pieces at safety and nickelback. Still a risky proposition to roster him with an implied total of just two touchdowns, but this system averages just under 40 passing attempts per game normally. May not be successful, but Millen will throw it plenty on Saturday.
Best of the Rest – WR Tory Horton ($5,300) Another name like many of these Colorado State players to just file away for future use. Projected WR1 in this system averages 71-1069-10 and Horton has as much talent as a Romeo Doubs or Elijah Cooks who have succeeded under Norvell.
Injury Notes – n/a
Michigan:
Top Play(s) – RBs Yes, plural. Don’t be shy about rostering both Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards in your lineups together as they’ll be on the field at the same time frequently this year. In each of the first three games last season, both Corum and Hassan Haskins scored 14 fantasy points or more, with Corum averaging 32 FPPG in that stretch. Michigan’s offensive line will be dominant again this season, and I’d assume most DFS players will shy away from rostering both in lineups so a good way to differentiate in GPPs.
Fade – WR Andrel Anthony ($5,000) Anthony solidified himself as a top five receiver in the rotation but did not beat out Roman Wilson for a starting job according to the depth chart at least. Top three starters will be Wilson, Ronnie Bell and Cornelius Johnson who should garner priority in lineups over Anthony. That said, no wide receiver has had more than 19% target share in the last two seasons.
Bargain Bin – TE Erick All ($4,300) I would have only given All though to roster if he was sub-$4k, but there isn’t a Wolverine worthy of consideration below this price. Messaging was constant this offseason, at least from the Michigan camp, that they have one of the best tight end rooms in the country, led be All. Good chance he finds pay dirt on Saturday but had only 13% target share a year ago.
Pivot Play – QB Cade McNamara ($6,400) Jim Harbaugh announced that McNamara will get his starting shot this week, with sophomore J.J. McCarthy getting the nod in Week 2 vs. Hawaii in order to determine the QB1 for the remainder of the season. Think there won’t be some additional motivation here for McNamara to outperform expectations?
Best of the Rest – Michigan utilizes a heavy rotation at receiver, but they’re pricey given that the Wolverines are heavy favorites. Ronnie Bell ($6,600) is back healthy and the likely WR1. Roman Wilson ($4,300) and Cornelius Johnson ($5,700) will start outside, but it’ll be a crapshoot similar to last year as to which posts the best numbers in a given week.
Injury Notes – n/a
Bowling Green vs. UCLA
Point-Spread: UCLA -23.5
O/U Total: 56.5
Implied Score: UCLA 40 – BG 16.5
Weather: 95 degrees / 0% rain / 4 mph winds
Bowling Green:
For time purposes, we’re going to keep this one short and sweet with the third-lowest implied total of the slate. The only potential options are the pass-catchers here with WR Austin Osborne ($4,800), WR Tyrone Broden ($4,600) or TE Christian Sims ($4,300). That trio combined for 58.1% of last year’s target share. Broden is the big-play threat, averaging 16.6 YPC with a team-high five touchdowns and 18.4 aDOT. Osborne, a former Washington transfer, led the Falcons with 90 targets.
UCLA:
Top Play(s) – RB Zach Charbonnet ($7,900) I’m struggling to find a reason not to roster Charbonnet this week outside of the point spread and likely blowout that is ensuing. The Bruins won last year’s opener over Hawaii by a considerable margin, and Charbonnet still posted 31 fantasy points. Brittain Brown and his 102 carries are no longer around, and the RB2 job is completely wide open at the moment, so we’re anticipating a heavy workload for Charbonnet in 2022.
Fade – Anyone outside of the Fearsome 4 Charbonnet, DTR, Ezeike and Bobo are expected to shoulder much of the offensive production in 2022. There is no true RB2 behind Charbonnet right now, and the WR2 last season accounted for just 10.6% of the target share.
Bargain Bin – TE Michael Ezeike ($3,800) Chip Kelly runs the most tight end-friendly offensive scheme in the country where the TE1 has averaged 76 targets per season over the last four years. Ezeike is a former 4-star recruit at wide receiver making the transition to tight end, and had a great offseason from all reports.
Pivot Play – QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson ($9,000) Most players will look at last year’s performance vs. Hawaii where DTR scored just 12 fantasy points as the Bruins leaned on their running game to secure the win. There are a lot of new pieces in the UCLA passing game this year, and maybe Chip Kelly looks at this matchup as a confidence builder for DTR with his new pass-catchers. Bowling Green was actually very good against the pass in 2021, ranking 9th in the country in yards allowed per game (not a typo). Tennessee only threw for 144 yards against BG in the opener last year.
Best of the Rest – WR Jake Bobo ($5,000) Could make the argument that Bobo is the best play among the UCLA options given his modest price. The Duke transfer plays a different position than last year’s leading receiver Kyle Philips, as Bobo will be lined up outside, but is the clear-cut WR1 entering the season. 159 vacated targets with Philips/Dulcich having graduated.
Injury Notes – n/a
Cincinnati vs. Arkansas
Point-Spread: Ark -6.5
O/U Total: 52.5
Implied Score: Ark 29.5 – Cin 23
Weather: 80 degrees / 48% rain / 9 mph winds
Cincinnati:
Top Play(s) – n/a This will be a much better game to watch and enjoy than stress over for DFS purposes. Outside of Ben Bryant, we don’t have a player projected to score double-digit fantasy points. Will definitely be tuning in to watch, though!
Fade – QB Ben Bryant ($5,700) Bryant struggled against MAC competition last year with arguably a better wide receiver room than he has now at Cincinnati. With the off chance we also see Evan Prater get a few snaps, we’re not interested at all here.
Bargain Bin – RB Myles Montgomery ($4,000) Montgomery was arguably the best running back in fall camp for the Bearcats, and we would suggest ignoring the depth chart here where Montgomery sits third. We expect a rotation with as many as four players vying for carries, but Arkansas struggled to defend the run last season, allowing 153.9 yards per game.
Pivot Play – WR Tre Tucker ($5,100) If there is a player that can match the SEC speed, it would be Tucker who runs a 4.29 40-yard dash. Minimal interest in the Cincinnati pass-catchers as there were four different receivers with 11% target share or more in 2021, but Tucker is capable of a big play or two.
Best of the Rest – WR Jadon Thompson ($4,300) will take over the Alec Pierce role on the outside that accounted for a team-high 21% target share. WR Tyler Scott ($4,700) will join Thompson and Tucker in the starting lineup, and also runs a sub 4.3 40-yard dash. We love the long-term outlook of LSU transfer RB Corey Kiner ($4,000), who will remind some of former Cincy great Michael Warren, but we’ll look for him down the road as he’s not quite ready to handle a full workload.
Injury Notes – n/a
Arkansas:
Top Play(s) – RB Raheim Sanders ($6,400) There’s a good chance we don’t see a high ownership total for Rocket Sanders given a modest projection of 14.4 fantasy points. But there is a lot to like here. Sounds as though Arkansas wants to try and limit KJ Jefferson in the running game…to an extent. No Dom Johnson to compete with for carries behind him. Four starters are back along the offensive line that helped pave way to the No. 1 running game in the SEC last season. And Sanders was being utilized as a receiver during practices so expect him featured some in the passing game.
Fade – WR Warren Thompson ($5,800) Thompson wasn’t very efficient last season, converting on just 54% of his targets with four drops. Good chance he loses his job at some point to sophomore Ketron Jackson. Arkansas was 115th nationally last season in pass attempts per game and wants to control the line of scrimmage, particularly against a G5 opponent.
Bargain Bin – TE Trey Knox ($4,100) The 6-foot-5 converted receiver started to come on in the second half of last season, and had a positive offseason according to beat writers. Doubling his reception total (20) from last year is not out of the question.
Pivot Play – WR Matt Landers ($4,900) The Arkansas 247Sports site did a fun article where the beat writer projected stats for the important offensive players. Some of them were a bit too enthusiastic, but his WR projections were noticeable. Toledo transfer Matt Landers was projected to finish second on the team in receptions, but the leader in touchdowns with eight. Makes sense with his career 20.2 yards per catch average. If Haselwood is less than 100% this week, Landers is the WR to own.
Best of the Rest – QB K.J. Jefferson The senior quarterback finished last season as the QB31 in CFF despite Arkansas averaging just 24.2 passing attempts per game, which was the lowest number ever for a Kendal Briles-led offense. The consistency with Jefferson’s production, or lack thereof, is what makes him a risky roster choice. Failed to score more than one touchdown in nearly half the games he played in last year.
Injury Notes – WR Jadon Haselwood ($6,400) returned to practice this week, with Sam Pittman sounding optimistic he’ll play. I’m no longer sure he’s even WR1 anymore, so easy fade there. RB Dominque Johnson ($5,100) practiced for the first time all offseason this week so I wouldn’t expect him to play at all.
Oregon vs. Georgia
Point-Spread: UGA -16.5
O/U Total: 53.5
Implied Score: UGA 35 – Oregon 18.5
Weather: Dome
Oregon:
Top Play(s) – RB Mar’Keise Irving ($3,200) Reports suggest that Irving came out of fall camp as the RB1 and probably gets the first carry on Saturday afternoon. We know the Georgia run defense was historic last season, but they lost a lot of pieces from that group. And the Ducks return one of the best offensive lines in the country that ranked 9th in Line Yards created and brings back four starters. Oregon running backs produced the fourth most fantasy points in all of college football.
Fade – RB Byron Cardwell ($5,200) On that note, I still love the talent of Byron Cardwell who flashed big-time potential at the end of last season. But I’m getting the hint of a possible transfer candidate as reports suggest he is running third on the depth chart. Second at best behind Irving.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – QB Bo Nix ($5,800) Two things working in favor of Nix this Saturday: (1) game script, as the Ducks will likely be trailing at some point. (2) The former Auburn transfer will face this Georgia defense for the fourth time in his college career. And if you haven’t noticed by now, his new head coach was UGA’s defensive coordinator last year. That said, his projection stands at under 14 fantasy points.
Best of the Rest – WR Dont’e Thornton ($5,100) Last two times we’ve seen Thornton publicly, he’s shown out. 4-90-1 in the Alamo Bowl vs. Oklahoma to cap off last season. And then in the spring game with 116 yards and two scores. A possible matchup nightmare for defensive backs this season at 6-foot-5.
Injury Notes – n/a
Georgia:
Top Play(s) – RB Kendall Milton ($5,500) Milton will be the team’s RB1 and is priced behind Kenny McIntosh. Head coach Kirby Smart said Milton is ready to roll after dealing with a hamstring injury during camp. Georgia returns three starters along the offensive line, and their running backs scored the third most fantasy points in all of college football last season.
Fade – QB Stetson Bennett ($9,400) Georgia is one of those teams that I can’t ever predict the outcome of how the offense will perform. Think they’ll dominate on the ground? Bennett airs it out for five passing touchdowns. And vice versa. Simply put, there is no way you can roster Bennett this week at his pricing, when the projection is sitting at just 21 fantasy points. The argument for Bennett? Closed the year out on a heater, averaging 23 FPPG over the last 10 games. Fiscally though, it doesn’t make sense to roster him at price.
Bargain Bin – TE Arik Gilbert ($3,200) Did DraftKings watch the spring game and see Gilbert catch multiple touchdown passes? Don’t be surprised if Georgia trots out two or three tight ends at multiple points during games because of how stocked the position is.
Pivot Play – WR Adonai Mitchell ($7,100) The pivot plays of all pivot plays. Investing in someone in the Georgia passing game not named Brock Bowers. The sophomore receiver has been very impressive from all reports out of UGA camp, and he’ll see less than 1% ownership in large GPPs. Georgia’s WR3 had the highest target share last year of any wide receiver on the roster which speaks to just how messy it can be with these pass-catchers.
Best of the Rest – RB Kenny McIntosh ($6,600) McIntosh is expected to fulfill the James Cook role as the team’s best pass-catcher out of the backfield. Remember – Cook actually led all Georgia running backs in fantasy points last season over “starter” Zamir White.
Injury Notes – n/a
Arizona vs. San Diego State
Point-Spread: Zona -6.5
O/U Total: 46.5
Implied Score: Zona 26 – SDSU 19.5
Weather: 91 degrees / 0% rain / 9 mph winds
Arizona:
Top Play(s) – QB Jayden de Laura ($6,800) Inconsistently consistent is the best way to describe Jayden de Laura. Every practice report from this offseason said as much with the former Washington State transfer alternating good days and bad days. He’ll face a San Diego State defense that is replacing both of its starting cornerbacks from a year ago and has a new set of receivers that are a significant upgrade from last year’s group. The Wildcats threw the ball a ton last season, averaging 36.5 attempts per game which was 20th nationally. In 10 out of 12 games, Arizona attempted 35 attempts or more.
Fade – RB Michael Wiley ($6,000) Wiley sits atop the depth chart but we don’t expect that to remain that way for long with true freshman Jonah Coleman hot on his trail. RB1 for Arizona last season accounted for just 21% of the volume share which is one of the lowest marks in the country.
Bargain Bin – WR Tetairoa McMillan ($3,900) The 6-foot-5, 4-star freshman secured a starting job right out of the gate and will be a matchup nightmare for years to come. The highest-rated recruit in program history will have a decided height advantage of five inches over the starting cornerbacks for SDSU.
Pivot Play – WR Jacob Cowing ($6,900) The 5-foot-11, 170-pound receiver posted eight 100-yard games last year and has averaged 18.5 yards per catch for his career. Cowing’s big-play ability adds an element to the offense that was lacking last year.
Best of the Rest – WR Dorian Singer ($4,200) will be the forgotten man in this revamped WR group, but closed last year strong with 18 receptions on 31 targets in the final five weeks.
Injury Notes – n/a
San Diego State:
Top Play(s) – QB Braxton Burmeister ($6,300) Throwing the football tends to be a challenge for Burmeister, who has completed just 56% of his passes during stints at Oregon and Virginia Tech. Now at his third stop, Burmeister’s intrigue comes with his legs as he rushed for 521 yards and four touchdowns last season with the Hokies. The Aztecs don’t have a bonafide starter at running back like year’s past, as far as we know, so they may rely on the quarterback position more than usual.
Fade – RB Chance Bell ($5,400) This is the just the second time in the last 12 seasons that San Diego State does not have a returning 1,000-yard rusher on the roster. Chance Bell will get the first carry on Saturday, but it may not matter if offensive line doesn’t improve. San Diego State ranked 87th in Line Yards last season and must replace three starters, including a pair of all-conference performers.
Bargain Bin – TE Mark Redman ($4,000) The 6-foot-6 Washington transfer landed the top spot on the two-deep as he’ll replace Daniel Bellinger who combined for over 100 targets in three years as a starter.
Pivot Play – WR Jesse Matthews ($6,500) We like to think of San Diego State as a run-heavy team, but the passing game took off in the final month of 2021, specifically Matthews who had 37 receptions in the final four games alone. Seven of his nine total touchdowns came in that span as well. With questions at running back and offensive line, maybe we see SDSU throw it around a bit more.
Best of the Rest – n/a
Injury Notes – n/a
UTEP vs. Oklahoma
Point-Spread: OU -30.5
O/U Total: 57.5
Implied Score: OU 44 – UTEP 13.5
Weather: 87 degrees / 24% rain / 9 mph winds
UTEP:
Initially was going to skip ahead to more important matters as UTEP has the second-lowest implied total of the slate, but the “WRs” are interesting here! Why in quotes? Reynaldo Flores ($3,100), who is listed at RB on DraftKings, topped 100 yards receiving last week in the loss to North Texas and had double-digit targets. Very intriguing at $3,100 as a running back. Fellow receivers Tyrin Smith ($4,600) and Kelly Akharaiyi ($3,900) combined for 26 targets vs. North Texas, and this game should mirror last week in terms of game script.
Oklahoma:
Top Play(s) – QB Dillon Gabriel ($9,200) Did you see 28-year old Austin Aune torch this UTEP secondary last week for 236 yards and three touchdowns. I’m being facetious when saying torched because Aune is a terrible quarterback. Now imagine what Dillon Gabriel should do to this secondary as he’s reunited with his old offensive coordinator from his days at UCF.
Fade – RB Eric Gray ($8,100) Don’t care about the favorable matchup, Eric Gray does not belong as the highest-priced running back on the slate. Offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby has shown over the last four seasons to prefer a committee over a workhorse approach, where the RB1 has accounted for just 24.2% of the carries. Just 136 carries per season in that span which equates to 11.3 carries per game.
Bargain Bin – WR Jalil Farooq ($4,100) The sophomore receiver popped in the bowl game vs. Oregon last year with 64 yards and three receptions, and there is a chance he’s the WR2 over veteran Theo Wease. What does WR2 in this system average? 47-758-7 over the last eight years. Around four receptions for 63 yards per game.
Pivot Play – WR Marvin Mims ($7,700) We understand the trepidation surrounding Marvin Mims but try and look past the misusage by the previous staff where Mims was only on the field 57% of the time. 8-year average for WR1s under Lebby: 76 catches, 1,154 yards and 11 touchdowns. Take out one random season as the OC at Southern University, and Lebby’s WR1 averages around 20.5 FPPG.
Best of the Rest – RB Marcus Major ($6,800) Too expensive at $6,800 to even consider, but this will be a blowout so Major should get a decent amount of run as Gray’s backup. The RB2 under Lebby has literally the same volume share as the RB1 at nearly 22%. This is an RBBC.
Injury Notes – n/a
Houston vs. UTSA
Point-Spread: Hou -4.5
O/U Total: 61.5
Implied Score: Hou 33 – UTS 28.5
Weather: Dome
Houston:
Top Play(s) – QB Clayton Tune ($7,900) Sirens emoji. Game stack alert for two high-powered offenses that should, at the very least, be just as good as last year. If there is a quarterback in the country this season that goes from good to great, ala Kenny Pickett for example, Clayton Tune is as good a candidate as any. The 6-foot-3 senior completed a career-high 68.2 percent of his throws and tossed two or more touchdowns in 12 of the 14 games played. This while not being 100 percent healthy for a chunk of the year.
Fade – RB Ta’Zhawn Henry ($5,800) Henry will step in for the injured Alton McCaskill who is out for the season, but I’m not that high on the Houston running game in this matchup. The Cougars need to replace three starters on the offensive line, and they struggled last year, averaging just 3.87 YPC. UTSA brings back five of its top seven tacklers from a group that was second in the conference in run defense.
Bargain Bin – WR Joseph Manjack ($4,100) 6-foot-3 transfer from USC that landed a starting spot opposite Matthew Golden on the outside. WR3’s under Holgorsen have averaged five touchdowns per season and Manjack will be the tallest starting receiver for the Cougars.
Pivot Play – WR Matthew Golden ($4,900) Rave reviews from head coach Dana Holgorsen who called Golden “the most talented, most mature freshman” that he’s ever coached at the position. After notching multiple touchdowns in the spring game, Golden landed a starting spot on the team depth chart and doesn’t appear to be slowing down anytime soon. Golden is the reason we’re “slightly” down on Tank Dell this year.
Best of the Rest – WR Nathaniel Dell ($7,800) On that note, Dell is still the team’s WR1 after catching 90 passes for 1,329 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2021. He accounted for 32.5% of the team’s target share which was a top 10 mark in the country. Don’t foresee that being the case again in 2022 with the added depth at the position with multiple transfers coming in, but will still be plenty valuable, particularly if Tune takes another leap like we expect.
Injury Notes – n/a
UTSA:
Top Play(s) – QB Frank Harris ($7,300) Similar to Houston, the Roadrunners know what they have with their passing game, as senior signal-caller Frank Harris returns after throwing for 3,161 yards and 27 touchdowns a year ago. Known as a dual threat, Harris was an extremely proficient passer, completing 66 percent of his attempts with just six interceptions.
Fade – RBs This backfield is messy right now with little clarity as the Roadrunners need to replace the school’s all-time leading rusher in Sincere McCormick who topped 1,400 yards in each of the last two seasons. Traylor hit the portal this offseason for replacements, landing Arkansas transfer Trelon Smith and former JUCO Tye Edwards, who are both expected to contribute along with veteran Brenden Brady. We’re anticipating a RBBC, at least to start the year.
Bargain Bin – WR De’Corian Clark ($4,700) Might be the team’s WR3, but Clark posted 15 or more fantasy points in three of the final four games last season, finishing the year with 18.6% of the team’s target share. That is not far off from Joshua Cephas (21%) who is $800 more on DraftKings.
Pivot Play – Playing Frank Harris w/o Zakhari Franklin ($7,500) Don’t think it’s necessary to pair Harris with WR1 Zakhari Franklin for the reasoning we indicated above. Franklin finished with 28% target share, but both Cephus and Clark were close behind. All three players closed last year averaging double-digit fantasy points.
Best of the Rest – n/a
Injury Notes – n/a
Troy vs. Mississippi
Point-Spread: Ole Miss -21.5
O/U Total: 56.5
Implied Score: Ole Miss 39 – Troy 17.5
Weather: 88 degrees / 29% rain / 6 mph winds
Troy:
In a normal week, we’ll cover a team like Troy more extensively, but at an implied total of 17.5 with no player projected to score over 15 fantasy points, we’ll likely pass on everyone here. New offensive coordinator Joe Craddock has been associated with slow-paced, run-heavy offenses in his last two stops. The biggest beneficiary of the Craddock hire is likely to be projected RB1 Kimani Vidal ($5,200), who has a career 4.8 YPC average, yet has only tallied 253 carries in two seasons. Vidal’s workload should increase in 2022, as Craddock ’s RB1s have garnered over 37% of the team’s rushing in the five years he was an offensive coordinator. WR Tez Johnson ($5,200) averaged nearly eight targets a game in 2021.
Ole Miss:
Top Play(s) – RB Zach Evans ($7,800) The only known commodity heading into the year offensively for Ole Miss is Evans who’s averaged over seven yards a carry in two seasons. There is a debate about his potential workload based on the past few years under Lane Kiffin where it’s been a full-on committee. But system is incredibly consistent, averaging 43.9 rushing attempts per game since 2014. The splits in division of carries between the running backs are anything but. In 2017-18 at Florida Atlantic, Devin Singletary scored 62% of the team’s rushing touchdowns and posted back-to-back 250+ carry seasons. Last three seasons between FAU and Ole Miss, Kiffin’s RB1 accounted for just 24.3% of the volume share – 11th lowest rate in the country in that span. Meanwhile, Matt Corral accounted for 25% market share in the last two seasons, and Kiffin has another QB with a similar skillset in Jaxson Dart. Several possible outcomes for the Rebels’ backfield in 2022, but we still love Evans this week in a favorable matchup.
Fade – WR Jonathan Mingo ($7,000) Each of the last three WR1s under Lane Kiffin have been slot receivers. Mingo does not play the slot, but we’ve read very little about a standout receiver for the Rebels in fall camp. We’re going to let this one play out a bit before loading up in our DFS lineups.
Bargain Bin – WR Malik Heath ($3,900) Wide receiver appears to be completely up for grabs, but the top three names look to be set with the aforementioned Mingo, UCF transfer Jaylon Robinson and Mississippi State transfer Malik Heath. The team’s 247 beat writer did make a proclamation in his game preview that “Heath caught our attention in fall camp. We think in this offense he is headed for a really big year.”
Pivot Play – TE Michael Trigg ($4,600) Haven’t heard much about Trigg in fall camp and he’s listed on the second line of the depth chart which is undoubtedly going to steer people away. But we do remember the spring game, right? Three touchdown receptions and arguably the best player on the field that day. Kiffin has a history of high-end tight end production back from his days at FAU when Harrison Bryant caught 110 passes in two years.
Best of the Rest – QB Jaxson Dart ($8,300) Reports swirling Friday afternoon that Jaxson Dart will get the nod Saturday, which most anticipated anyways as the 5-star transfer from USC. Tentative to go all in here as report also suggests that Luke Altmyer could see snaps as well.
Injury Notes – n/a
BYU vs. South Florida
Point-Spread: BYU -11.5
O/U Total: 58.5
Implied Score: BYU 35 – USF 23.5
Weather: 88 degrees / 81% rain / 7 mph winds
BYU:
Top Play(s) – QB Christopher Brooks ($6,100) In the last three seasons as a full-time offensive coordinator, Aaron Roderick has given his RB1 23.7 carries per game, including 276 rushing attempts to Tyler Allgeier last season. Cal transfer Christopher Brooks won the starting job outright coming out of spring ball and is listed as the clear-cut RB1 on the team’s depth chart. BYU’s offensive line is expected to be a major strength in 2022.
Fade – WR Gunner Romney ($6,500) Injuries aside, Romney’s production has fallen off as he was relegated to the third option last season in the passing game behind Puka Nacua and Neil Pau’u. Too steep a price here for a player that averaged just 9.5 FPPG.
Bargain Bin – WR Keanu Hill ($4,200) The WR3 for BYU has been very productive with Roderick as offensive coordinator, averaging 3.5 receptions on 4.9 targets per game. Hill will assume that role in 2022 and could jump to WR1 in Week 1 if Nacua and Romney are both unavailable. Situation to monitor.
Pivot Play – QB Jaren Hall ($7,200) This is probably one of the lowest salaries we’ll see this year for Hall, who is projected at nearly 25 fantasy points, but there are concerns. Rain is expected in the forecast which makes me nervous. BYU could be without it’s top two playmakers at receiver. And the BYU staff has said this offseason they do not want Hall running as much as he did a year ago. If I’m nervous about that, others will be too.
Best of the Rest – TE Isaac Rex ($4,100) Rex is just two years removed from catching double-digit touchdowns in a season and is healthy entering 2022 after missing much of last year. Indications are that WR Brayden Cosper ($3,400) would enter the starting lineup should Romney and Nacua be inactive.
Injury Notes – See above on Puka Nacua and Gunner Romney
South Florida:
Top Play(s) – QB Gerry Bohanon ($5,600) Bohanon did some good things with Baylor last season before the wheels fell off, as he averaged 25 FPPG in 10 games. Brings rushing upside to the table, and will now be in an offense that moves at a much faster rate, ranking in the top third nationally in pace since HC Jeff Scott was hired. 81% of last year’s offensive production is back, so this should realistically be an improved group that averaged 23 PPG a year ago.
Fade – WR Jimmy Horn Jr. ($4,400) See below. We’ll hold off for now.
Bargain Bin – WR Ajou Ajou ($3,900) We don’t have a depth chart so trying to look for any clues possible here. The former Clemson transfer brings needed size to the position at 6-foot-4, and the BYU beat writer stated that “feedback from Tampa has been very positive about USF’s top two receivers.” The author then processed to listed of WR1 Xavier Weaver and Ajou, not Jimmy Horn Jr. We’ll see if that’s correct on Saturday.
Pivot Play – WR Xavier Weaver ($5,600) Led the Bulls with 41 receptions on 83 targets last season, accounting for 26% of the team target share. Next closest receiver was at just 14%. Weaver is a big-play threat, averaging 17.0 YPC and an aDOT at 18.2.
Best of the Rest – RB Jaren Mangham ($5,500) USF does return all five starters along the offensive line, so the rushing production should at least match last year’s results you would think. Mangham is a clear regression candidate, though, as he rushed for 15 touchdowns on just 160 attempts. That is not replicable.
Injury Notes – n/a
