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UTSA vs. Houston
Point-Spread: PK
O/U Total: 61
Implied Score: UTSA 30.5 – Hou 30.5
Weather: 95 degrees / 25% rain / 10 mph winds
UTSA:
Top Play(s) – WR Joshua Cephus ($5,900) See below on the injury notes as to why this is the top play. UTSA would have had three 100-target receivers last year had De’Corian Clark not gotten injured in November of last year. Heading into Week 1, it could be just Cephus left from the group with Clark still on the mend and Zakhari Franklin off to Ole Miss via the portal. Cephus will be peppered with targets should Clark sit, though he wasn’t the most explosive receiver last year with a 11.3 YPC average and aDOT of 8.2.
Fade – RB Robert Henry ($4,800) Not entirely sure who this is or why they’re priced at $4.8k when they’re the clear RB3 behind starter Kevorian Barnes and Vanderbilt transfer Rocko Griffin.
Bargain Bin – TE Oscar Cardenas ($3,600) With a depleted WR group, the TE1 becomes a more integral part of the passing offense, much like Cardenas did late in the year when injuries started to pile up for the Roadrunners. 84 yards and a touchdown against North Texas in the conference championship game. Against Troy, there was no De’Corian Clark, Joshua Cephus or Zakhari Franklin and Cardenas was targeted seven times. Cardenas has the trust clearly of Frank Harris.
Pivot Play – RB Kevorian Barnes ($5,600) With all the attention centered around the health of the passing game components, don’t forget that UTSA has an absolute horse in the backfield with sophomore Kevorian Barnes. And the staff emphasized this week how they were not pleased with how UTSA performed in last year’s matchup with Houston, rushing for just 104 yards as a team. Remember Sincere McCormick? Barnes is just as talented, if not more. Three starters are back on the OL for the Roadrunners.
Best of the Rest – WR Chris Carpenter ($4,900) Much like Cardenas, Carpenter saw an extreme uptick in targets when injuries set in late in the year. Targeted 10 times in the bowl game vs. Troy, and might’ve had nine receptions if he didn’t drop two of the targets. Possession receiver at 5-foot-11 with an aDOT of 8.1 so he’ll need volume. QB Frank Harris ($7,100) being priced behind Grant Wells and Drew Allar is baffling to me. Yes, he’s down a few components in the passing game, but this is one of the best G5 quarterbacks in the country with rushing upside. The Cougars are 36th in returning defensive production, but were 86th in success rate vs. the pass in 2022.
Injury Notes – WR De’Corian Clark ($5,200) According to the UTSA beat writer, Clark was still not cleared to play and in a red jersey. If he’s not cleared by game week, I’m absolutely assuming he’s out here. Stay tuned pregame as we’ll likely hear the decision as UTSA’s news coverage is better than most.
Houston:
Top Play(s) – WR Matthew Golden ($5,600) It was a solid debut season for the former 4-star recruit with 38-584-7 on 56 targets, which was fifth in the country among freshmen wideouts. In order to be a top 10 fantasy receiver for a season, hitting 100 targets is an absolute necessity and while Dana Holgorsen’s lack of access into practices is an annoyance, he does provide us with an offensive system that has repeatedly produced top-flight fantasy wideouts. Eight receivers in the last nine seasons have hit the 100-target benchmark under the maligned head coach. Houston has numerous weapons at wideout entering 2023, but all indications are the Golden is the WR1.
Fade – RB Tony Mathis Jr. ($5,400) If Mathis is the missing piece at running back to make a lineup work, I don’t have major qualms about it. He’s a solid running back behind a very experienced offensive line. The issue is that Houston is very deep at the position, Holgorsen generally employs a RBBC, and new starting QB Donovan Smith is sure to take some rushing attempts away as a dual threat. Very little upside here. You’ll see Stacy Sneed, Brandon Campbell and potentially 4-star FR Parker Jenkins all get carries.
Bargain Bin – WR Stephon Johnson ($4,500). Would not consider anyone for Houston below $4.5k. The former Oklahoma State transfer seems to be fourth on the pecking order, but was outstanding as a freshman with the Cowboys, with 18 receptions and a 16.6 YPC average. Even WR4s do have a place on this offense, averaging 4.3 targets per game.
Pivot Play – WR Joseph Manjack ($5,100) Between the starting trio of wideouts for Houston, Manjack is sure to see the lowest ownership of the group. Warranted? Not according to Holgorsen who called the former USC transfer as having the most solid consistent camp of any offensive player. Manjack also had a nifty one-handed touchdown grab last year in this matchup. Last year’s WR3 only had 51 targets for the season, but that was with Nathaniel Dell hogging the target share at 33%. I believe will see a more balanced offense from the Cougars spreading the ball around.
Best of the Rest – QB Donovan Smith ($7,400) Very similar projections and pricing for Smith and his counterpart in this matchup, Frank Harris. In GPPs, I can see a game-stack scenario being successful. There was some competition in fall camp with backup Lucas Coley, but we do like that Holgorsen came out and definitively said that Smith is QB1. And he’s got a surplus of receivers at his disposal. Not to mention the rushing floor, where Smith ran for 40 or more yards in three of his five starts. WR2/3 Sam Brown ($5,300) is a nice hedge if you want to fade Golden for leverage. Caught four or more passes in six of his last seven games. Surprised he’s even eligible, though, after punching a Tulsa player in the season finale last year.
Injury Notes – n/a
New Mexico vs. Texas A&M
Point-Spread: A&M -38
O/U Total: 49.5
Implied Score: A&M 38 – NM 5.5
Weather: 99 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
New Mexico:
The Lobos actually improved upon their 2021 numbers offensively, going from 12.2 PPG to a whopping 13.1 PPG last season. As you would expect, New Mexico made a change at offensive coordinator, bringing in Bryant Vincent who spent the last five seasons as the OC with UAB. Not exactly a juggernaut offensively, but Vincent has produced a few CFF relevant players in the past, most notably at the running back position with Spencer Brown and DeWayne McBride. That’s expected for an offensive system that ran the ball 62.7% of the time since 2018. Alabama State transfer Jacorey Merritt ($4,600) won the starting job out of fall camp, but we’re obviously not starting anyone here with an implied team total under six points. File the name away maybe for MWC conference play.
Texas A&M:
Top Play(s) – WR Evan Stewart ($6,000) A&M pay its players too much money for them to transfer but would’ve loved to see Stewart hit the portal for a better situation, because he was damn good as a freshman. Averaged 9.9 targets per game in 10 starts and was absolutely dominant during a four-game stretch with six or more receptions in each contest. While this is a large spread, the Aggies are learning a new offense of sorts under new OC Bobby Petrino, so we could see the starters in for an extended period to work out any kinks.
Fade – RBs. I’ll fully admit that I did not keep close tabs late in fall camp with the Aggies on which running back amongst the top three was trending upwards towards Week 1. For that reason, I’m trying to stay away from this situation where there likely is very little upside because you’ll see all three of Amari Daniels, Le’Veon Moss and prized 5-star Reuben Owens. When calling plays, Petrino’s RB1 only averaged 126 carries per season, so he rarely relies on one back, plus there is some involvement in the QB run game. I’m sure one, maybe two, of these players will find themselves into the end-zone, but neither of the three are cheap to where they’re a punt play.
Bargain Bin – WR Moose Muhammad ($4,100) Did I miss the memo somewhere on Muhammad and why he’s this cheap? Discounting the first two games of the season, Muhammad averaged 8.2 targets per over the last seven weeks with four touchdowns. I will note that sophomore Noah Thomas ($5,100) was one of the standouts this offseason for the Aggies, and slot-man Ainias Smith ($5,800) is back in the fold, so the targets could be dispersed more evenly than they were down the stretch in 2022. Would probably just have one Aggie receiver in a lineup, not multiple.
Pivot Play – QB Connor Weigman ($8,500) I’m guessing not many folks are going to play Weigman at this pricing, so we could try and gain leverage in a potential blowout. Situationally, it is set up nicely for the sophomore quarterback. There are question marks at running back and A&M arguably has one of, if not the best, group of receivers in the SEC. We saw slate-breaking upside from Weigman last year against Ole Miss when he threw for 338 yards and four touchdowns. The concern for me here is game one functionality from an offense that does have a new play-caller in Bobby Petrino. Could be messy coming out of the gates.
Best of the Rest – TE Jake Johnson ($3,000) Johnson played in just four games as a freshman, catching one pass on two targets. He’ll assume the starting role as the primary pass-catcher at the position with Donovan Green out for the season due to injury. Just 14 receptions per season from the TE1 while Petrino was calling plays at Missouri State.
Injury Notes – n/a
SE Missouri vs. Kansas State
Point-Spread: n/a
O/U Total: n/a
Implied Score: n/a
Weather: 96 degrees / 0% rain / 9 mph winds
SE Missouri:
We covered FCS on the weekly slates. Not playing anyone here on a 9-gamer.
Kansas State:
Top Play(s) – RB DJ Giddens ($5,500) There was excitement for RB Treshaun Ward’s ($6,000) arrival from Florida State, thinking he would fill the shoes of K-State legend Deuce Vaughn. As Lee Corso would say, NOT SO FAST. Preseason magazines (not always 100% accurate) all had the sophomore Giddens as the projected starter. There haven’t been any reports on the K-State side to dispute this notion either. The 200+ pound sophomore has looked very good in limited appearances, averaging over six yards a carry on 98 touches. Here’s what we do know. The Wildcats should be very good running the football in 2023, with or without Vaughn, as they return all five starting OL from a year ago. Head coach Chris Klieman has utilized a committee in the past, so expecting a good dosage of both RBs.
Fade – WR RJ Garcia ($5,500) I do think there’s a chance we see some success with the passing game (see below), but Garcia is the perceived WR3 in an offense. Now last season’s WR3 garnered 19% target share – the highest ever mark for a WR3 under Klieman. The WR3 averaged just 7.2 FPPG. Point per dollar isn’t worth it here.
Bargain Bin – TE Ben Sinnott ($3,800) Sinnott’s value took off once Will Howard was inserted as the starting quarterback last season. Four touchdowns in the last five games, including a season-high eight targets in the bowl game vs. Alabama. People who aren’t in tune will see “FB” on the Kansas State depth chart and think he’s a non-factor.
Pivot Play – QB Will Howard ($9,100) Would’ve absolutely considered Howard more here had he been a slightly more attainable pricing. Do think it’s notable that offensive coordinator and former K-State legend Collin Klein did up the pace and passing volume once Howard took over as QB1, averaging 28 pass attempts per game (23 with Adrian Martinez). And while he didn’t show it last year, Howard is more than capable as a runner, rushing for 364 yards and four scores as a freshman in 2021.
Best of the Rest – WR Keagan Johnson ($5,900) While returnee Phillip Brooks ($6,700) is back after finishing second last season in targets (73), I would strongly lean towards the Iowa transfer here as he moves to a functioning passing offense. Brooks was relatively disappointing in 2022, leading the team in drops (5). Johnson should fill the Malik Knowles role as the team’s big play threat after averaging 19.6 YPC as a freshman.
Injury Notes – n/a
West Virginia vs. Penn State
Point-Spread: PSU -20.5
O/U Total: 52
Implied Score: PSU 36 – WVU 16.5
Weather: 76 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
West Virginia:
Top Play(s) – RB CJ Donaldson ($4,700) I’m very conflicted here. The argument for Donaldson: (1) He’s West Virginia’s best offensive weapon. (2) The Mountaineers bring back all five starting offensive linemen. (3) When Neal Brown calls plays on offense, which he will be this season, he FEEDS his RB1 and nobody else. You’re looking at 200+ carries in a season and over 16 FPPG. Donaldson clearly displayed last year, when healthy, he’s capable of such feats. But when the pricing is too good to be true, it usually is. FWIW – his rushing props began in the 40s and aren’t much higher as of Friday.
Fade – RB Jaylen Anderson ($4,300) We hit on this above. When Neal Brown calls plays, his tendencies show that he leans on one running back. 50% volume share is a gift from the heavens with fantasy running backs, and that’s happen with three different running backs under Brown, dating back to his time at Troy. No need to concern yourself with anyone else.
Bargain Bin – n/a. The only player we’re considering under $5k is Donaldson.
Pivot Play – QB Garrett Greene ($5,700) I’ll start by saying I’m most likely fading all WVU players this week. But a dual-threat QB at this pricing is tempting with a 17-point projection and in each of his starts last season, Greene reached paydirt with a rushing touchdown. This Penn State secondary was one of the best in the country, though, in 2022, ranking 9th in success rate against the pass and 4th in total EPA.
Best of the Rest – WR Devin Carter ($5,300) Was mostly a non-factor during his time at NC State, but there’s a reason West Virginia sought after Carter in the offseason. Fits the size requirements for a red-zone threat at 6-foot-3 and id actually play well down the stretch last season with 40% of his targets coming in the last three games. Carter showed out against UNC with 130 yards and a TD in the finale. A career 16.1 YPC.
Injury Notes – n/a
Penn State:
Top Play(s) – RBs. Tough to choose which RB to roster. Here’s the research we did in the offseason. The slightest of edges to Kaytron Allen for overall rushing attempts (167-155), red-zone carries (30-23) and receiving targets (24-17) in the same number of games played. Singleton was the game-breaker of the two, averaging 6.8 yards per attempt with 12 rushes of 20 yards or more. In terms of advanced metrics, Singleton was also superior. 4.58 yards per attempt after contact. 59.9% breakaway rate, compared to just 25.7% for Allen. Both players were very productive as freshmen, so it’s difficult to envision a scenario where one snags most of the volume. Just three times last year did either Singleton or Allen hit 20 rushing attempts in a game.
Fade – WR Dante Cephas ($4,900) Some thought the former Kent State transfer would wind up as Penn State’s new WR1. That still may come to fruition at some point, but Cephas arrived in the summer and might actually be on the third string with some of the developments of the younger Nittany Lion receivers. Maybe Cephas will be an option later in the year but fade for now.
Bargain Bin – TE Tyler Warren ($3,400) I would assume most CFB fans are split on their opinions of media personality Josh Pate. But I distinctly remember a show of his where he covered the Nittany Lions offense and called out tight end Tyler Warren as a potential difference maker for 2023. He’ll split reps with starter Theo Johnson, but there are 38 vacated targets available with Brenton Strange graduating. With some question marks at receiver, the tight ends could be safety blankets for Drew Allar.
Pivot Play – WR KeAndre Lambert-Smith ($6,500) While we don’t have interest in Allar, we don’t believe anyone will be playing KLS this week at this cost and a moderate 13-point projection. Murmurs out of camp, though, suggest that Lambert-Smith has established himself as the WR1, despite Penn State going out and acquiring multiple receivers in the portal this offseason. I do like that KLS ended last year on a high note with a touchdown in each of the final two games, including 100 yards in the bowl game vs. a very good Utah defense.
Best of the Rest – QB Drew Allar ($8,900) Someone needs to explain to me why Allar is priced as high as he is, yet we have bargains on a Donovan Smith or Frank Harris? First-year starter and a non-runner with a questionable receiving room. I’m still maintaining my stance that 2023 Penn State will replicate the Michigan 2022 offense. High-end offensive line play to protect a first year starting QB, and heavily lean on your horses on the ground.
Injury Notes – n/a
Middle Tennessee vs. Alabama
Point-Spread: Bama -39.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Implied Score: Bama 47.5 – MTSU 7.5
Weather: 80 degrees / 23% rain / 6 mph winds
Middle Tennessee:
We’ll keep this one brief. WR DJ England-Chisolm ($4,600) is the only option we’re even mildly interested in on the MTSU side. A mighty mite at 5-foot-8, 155 pounds, DJEC likely becomes the WR1 for a team that threw the ball 53.1% of the time in 2022. Head coach Rick Stockstill has also produced some incredible WRs in the past with Jaylin Lane, Ty Lee and Richie James. England-Chisolm proved last season he’s capable of production against P5 opponents as well, with 169 yards and two scores against Miami.
Alabama:
Top Play(s) – RB Jase McClellan ($6,800) With the quarterback situation in flux, the general sentiment this offseason is that Alabama will get back to ground and pound in 2023 with what is expected to be one of the better offensive lines in the country. McClellan will lead that group. The question is how many carries does he get with a deep stable of backs as we’ll undoubtedly see Roydell Williams and Jam Miller, along with potentially a 5-star FR waiting in the wings.
Fade – WR Ja’Corey Brooks and Jermaine Burton Reading the game preview on the Alabama 247 site, one line stuck out when describing the wide receiver room re: Brooks and Burton. “General butterfingers.” For two players who disappointed last year, that doesn’t bode well, even against an overmatched opponent. See below on who could benefit.
Bargain Bin – WR Malik Benson ($3,800) Split opinions this offseason as to who the WR1 for Bama would be. When beat reporters would list their projected depth charts, Benson was consistently listed on the second team offense. But the glimpses of what people saw in the spring game, combined for his 20+ YPC average at the JUCO level, have some thinking he winds up as the WR1 when all is said and done.
Pivot Play – QB Jalen Milroe ($9,600) We’d imagine whichever QB started this week against MTSU would find some success. The question in our eyes is whether we see multiple quarterbacks with Ty Simpson pushing Milroe all through fall camp. Barring a drastic collapse, we’re predicting that Saban picked his starter with the vision of preparing them for Texas in Week 2. So, from that standpoint, Milroe will get most of the reps against an inferior defense. A risk, but one worth taking in GPPs.
Best of the Rest – TE CJ Dippre ($3,800) New offensive coordinator Tommy Rees utilized the tight end position heavily back at Notre Dame. Not surprisingly given the talent of Michael Mayer. Former Maryland transfer CJ Dippre isn’t on that level, but will the incorporation of the TE position remain the same under Rees? Practices open to the press suggest Dippre has been a standout in practices.
Injury Notes – RB Justice Haynes ($5,400) Have to wonder how much run the prized 5-star freshman will get after being nicked up in fall camp with an injury. Nick Saban did confirm Haynes is practicing, but also missed 3-4 days of practice and a scrimmage. How much does that affect his playing time on Saturday?
North Carolina vs. South Carolina:
Point-Spread: UNC -2.5
O/U Total: 63.5
Implied Score: UNC 33 – SC 30.5
Weather: 79 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
North Carolina:
Top Play(s) – QB Drake Maye ($10,100) We’ll put Maye here as the top play, but not sure we can stomach that enormous salary with just a 26-point projection. I would say stacking this game is the situation in where we swallow the cost. There’s just a lot of unknowns here, including Maye playing without his top wide receiver in Tez Walker, along with a new man calling plays in OC Chip Lindsey. His track record does have its warts. After a strong start to his coaching tenure at Troy in 2019, Lindsey’s offenses saw a steep decline in both yards per game and scoring in the subsequent years before his dismissal. His previous stops as OC at Arizona State, Auburn, and Southern Miss produced several Top 30 scoring offenses, but a discussion is to be had as to who had overall control of the scheme, as he was paired mostly with offensive-minded head coaches (Gus Malzahn). There are only two instances in the last nine years where a Lindsey-led offense threw at least 30 TD passes, and his QB1’s fantasy point-per game average over that span is just 20.8.
Fade – TE Bryson Nesbit ($4,100) Not sure if this was performance or injury related or something else entirely, but the stock of the talented tight end fell dramatically during fall camp, sinking all the way to the third team offense. Tight end position is stocked fully this year with returning starter Kamari Morales and the emergence of John Copenhaver who was a standout in fall ball. The new play-caller does not have a history of using the tight end position much, though, so all three might be a fade.
Bargain Bin – WR Andre Greene Jr. ($3,000) Surprised to see the talented former 4-star buried on the depth chart still after a strong performance in the bowl game vs. Oregon with 26 yards and a touchdown on three targets. Have to imagine Greene getting rotational reps, at least, with Walker not available in this game.
Pivot Play – RB British Brooks ($5,300) Just how much has the South Carolina rush defense improved in a year? 123rd in success rate and 121st in EPA. UNC will split the backfield between Brooks and promising sophomore Omarion Hampton ($5,500) but it will be the trusted veteran getting the start. And not just for seniority reasons, Brooks has proven in the past to be a very good back, averaging 9.5 yards per carry back in 2021.
Best of the Rest – WR Nate McCollum ($5,700) I believe we need to update our projection here on the site as McCollum will absolutely be among the top two pass-catchers on Saturday for Maye. The Georgia Tech transfer is listed in an or situation with Kobe Paysour ($5,000) in the slot, but all hands on deck with Tez Walker deemed ineligible by the NCAA. McCollum had a 76% target conversion rate with one drop on 79 targets a year ago. We’ve seen two slot receivers be productive in the past under Lindsey, dating back to his days at Southern Miss where Casey Martin/Markese Triplett combined for 95 receptions in a season.
Injury Notes – WR DeVontez Walker ($6,100) Free Tez. We still await a decision from the NCAA on the appeal from North Carolina in regards to his transfer ruling. Because of that, Walker will sit on Saturday.
South Carolina:
Top Play(s) – WR Antwane Wells ($6,900) Proceed with caution here. While Wells is our top choice, an ESPN report did come out yesterday and say that the South Carolina WR1 is just 80% heading into Saturday. 80% is 110% in the eyes of Wells, who is a very confident player, so we’re fully expecting him out there. It’s a matter of how healthy and impactful. Wells received a ton of preseason accolades, and rightfully so after the year he had in 2022 with 941 yards and six touchdowns. We’re interested to see how his aDOT (average depth of target) possibly changes in 2022. Just 8.9 yards a year ago, he was upwards of 12 yards per target back at James Madison. Hopefully a few more deep shots in 2023.
Fade – WR Eddie Lewis ($5,400) Thought the Memphis transfer would have made the starting lineup given the lack of depth at wide receiver but appears to be the fourth or fifth option in the passing game.
Bargain Bin – TE Trey Knox ($3,700) Had Knox not gotten banged up during fall camp, we’d have a ton more interest. Expected to play, Knox did have a wrap on his leg the past few weeks that made him questionable for this matchup. The former Arkansas transfer caught a touchdown in the team’s spring game and is expected to have a major role in the offense with his former position coach, Dowell Loggains, calling the plays.
Pivot Play – RB Dakereon Joyner ($5,500) South Carolina did go out this offseason and try to improve the running back position but lost out on Logan Diggs to LSU. Out of necessity, the staff converted the former QB/WR Dakereon Joyner to running back in hopes of adding a depth piece to the backfield. Instead, the transition has gone swimmingly, and Joyner has retained the starting job all through the offseason. Expecting 20 carries? No. But we love that Joyner offers so much flexibility to the offense as a runner, receiver, and maybe even a passer if we see a trick play given his experience at QB. Last time he played North Carolina, he was named the MVP of the 2021 Duke’s Mayo Bowl.
Best of the Rest – WR Spencer Rattler ($8,800) Same question we asked about South Carolina’s rush defense can be attributed here to the UNC secondary. 129th in success rate and 131st in EPA last season defending the pass. We’re not a fan of new OC Dowell Loggains who comes to Columbia after spending the past two seasons with Arkansas as the Razorbacks’ tight ends coach. Prior to that, Loggains was a long-time NFL assistant, calling plays for the Bears, Dolphins, and Jets between 2016-20. In those five seasons, Loggains worked with two Top 5 NFL Draft selections at quarterback in Mitchell Trubisky and Sam Darnold. Their combined TD-INT ratio in that time? Cover your eyes if you’re considering rostering Ratter. 5 touchdowns and 31 interceptions.
Injury Notes – Monitor pregame reports on Wells and Knox to ensure they’re good to go.
Texas Tech vs. Wyoming
Point-Spread: Tx Tech -14
O/U Total: 52
Implied Score: Tx Tech 33 – Wyo 19
Weather: 78 degrees / 20% rain / 15 mph winds
Texas Tech:
Top Play(s) – QB Tyler Shough ($8,400) There was little doubt Shough would be named the starter in 2023 given how he closed the regular season a year ago, leading the Red Raiders to four straight wins, including an upset of Ole Miss in the bowl game. Shough averaged 27 FPPG in that stretch and was heavily utilized on the ground. Don’t anticipate him seeing 25 carries as he did vs. the Rebels, as the key to their season is keeping Shough healthy, but we’re expecting big things in year two of the Zach Kittley offense. Helping Shough is a revamped WR group that should be much improved.
Fade – RB Cam’Ron Valdez ($5,400) It doesn’t sound like the coaching staff believes there will be a significant drop-off at the RB2 position with SaRodorick Thompson now graduated and inserting Valdez in as the top backup. That said, this is a bit pricey at $5.4k for a position in the Kittley offense that usually averages just 8.8 touches per game.
Bargain Bin – TE Mason Tharp ($3,200) Just need one TD to pay off salary, right? I wouldn’t play Tharp at all here, but he’s cheap and somewhat involved in the offense, targeted 27 times in 2022. He’s a massive red-zone threat at 6-foot-7.
Pivot Play – WR Drae McCray ($5,700) McCray popped on my radar in last year’s opener against Western Kentucky. Late in the year, he emerged again when he caught 12 passes on 15 targets against Alabama – yes, you read that correctly. Alabama. McCray, whose speed has been compared to former Tech great Jakeem Grant, has positional flexibility to play inside or out, and wouldn’t surprise us to see him become the WR2 or more at some point in the year.
Best of the Rest – WR Jerand Bradley ($6,300) The 6-foot-3 junior emerged late in the year as the team’s WR1 with 300 yards and three touchdowns in the final month. All of the preseason coverage indicated he’s the true top receiver on the team. It’s a battle for targets in the slot with as many as four players vying for reps between the aforementioned McCray, Myles Price, Xavier White and Nehemiah Martinez. Can sprinkle each one of them in for roster fillers, but Bradley/McCray are the preferred choices at WR. Tahj Brooks ($6,300) could be leaned on more heavily in 2023 with Thompson no longer around. Wyoming was just 77th in rush play success rate defensively last year.
Injury Notes – n/a
Wyoming:
Top Play(s) – RB Jamari Ferrell ($4,500) Wyoming was decimated with injuries in fall camp as NIU transfer Harrison Waylee is expected to miss the first 1-2 games of the regular season and Dawaiian McNeely will be out the entire season with a torn ACL. We know what the Cowboys want to do offensively each year – run the football. Four of the last five seasons the RB1 for Wyoming has carried the rock 200-plus times, and the exception was the COVID year when Xzavian Valladay was avg. 19.8 att/g. Ferrell will get carries, it’s a matter of how successful. Wyoming does bring back three starters on the OL, while Texas Tech was 61st in defensive rush success rate.
Fade – QB Andrew Peasley ($6,300) Wyoming only throws the ball when they have to, and even when they do, it’s not all that effective. Peasley had a 10-9 touchdown to interception ratio in 2022, and the Cowboys were 106th in success rate when dropping back to pass. Peasley brings some mobility to the table (339 rush yards / 2 TDs) but not enough to consider starting him.
Bargain Bin – TE Treyton Welch ($3,100) Welch finished first on the team in touchdown receptions (5) and third in targets (30) a season ago. There’s a chance Welch could see an increased role in the passing game with last year’s backup, who had 29 targets, is no longer on the roster.
Pivot Play – WR Alex Brown ($4,400) Far from a high-volume passing offense, but typically the WR1 for Wyoming does see a heavy target share – 24% or more the last two seasons. That’s expected to be 6-foot-4 junior Alex Brown. Maybe he can parlay his 2023 season into a P5 transfer offer just as Isaiah Neyor (Texas) and Joshua Cobbs (Houston) have done the last two years.
Best of the Rest – RB D.Q. James ($4,300) The 170-pound James does have some fans in the college fantasy community, averaging 8.7 yards per carry in 2022, including consecutive 100-yard rushing performances against Utah State and Hawaii. Sounds like he was injured during a portion of fall camp being potentially the reason why he didn’t land the RB1 job. Though his size doesn’t scream workhorse-type.
Injury Notes – RB Harrison Waylee ($5,000) Confirmed out, the NIU transfer is expected to miss at least the first two games of the season.
Old Dominion vs. Virginia Tech
Point-Spread: Va Tech -15.5
O/U Total: 49.5
Implied Score: Va Tech 32.5 – ODU 17
Weather: 72 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
Old Dominion:
Top Play(s) – WR Javon Harvey ($5,100) If you’re a CFF enthusiast that also plays DFS, I think Harvey is the play we can gain some leverage on, as they’ll see Old Dominion and 17 points for the implied team total and say no chance. HC Ricky Rahne hired offensive coordinator Kevin Decker away from Fordham and was one of the most intriguing/underrated hires of the offseason. The steep upward trajectory is noticeable with Decker calling plays at Fordham over the last four years. They skyrocketed from 25 PPG in 2019 to almost 50 PPG and over 600 YPG in 2022. Why the dramatic surge in production? Decker spent the 2019-20 seasons studying and installing the up-tempo, veer-n-shoot system that Josh Heupel currently employs with the Vols. It didn’t take off immediately, but Decker’s senior-laden Fordham team executed the system to perfection, running 78.3 plays per game, averaging more than 400 passing yards per game, and the top two running backs combining for over 2,000 rushing yards.
With all that said, Harvey is the clear WR1 for the Monarchs in what should be a game that ODU throws 35+ times. Three touchdowns in the last two games to close 2022 and was named the spring game MVP this year.
Fade – RB Kadarius Calloway ($4,800) Our projected starter for the entirety of the offseason, the 217-pound FCS transfer did not even make the two-deep, falling behind Keshawn Wicks ($4,500) and Obie Sanni ($4,100). We’re not all that interested in the running backs here in general, but should note they are involved in the passing game, averaging 22 receptions a season under Decker
Bargain Bin – WR Isiah Paige ($3,000) Min-priced starting receiver for an offense that could throw it 50 times potentially? Color me intrigued. Not sure how much upside Paige has as a 5-foot-8 slot receiver that’s averaged just 8.3 YPC in his career. But Decker’s slot receiver in 2022 did post 56 receptions for 1,166 yards and 13 touchdowns in 2022. Just to give you a sense of how this offense looks when firing on all cylinders for down the road. Not the expectation for Year 1.
Pivot Play – QB Grant Wilson ($5,900) On the plus side, Wilson does know this system well, given that he came to ODU with his offensive coordinator over the offseason. The trouble is that Wilson was actually the backup QB at Fordham last year. I’ll probably fade Wilson this week to see what ODU has in their new QB1, but this could be a volume play in a positive game script situation.
Best of the Rest – WR Jordan Bly ($4,100) Bly landed a coveted starting spot on the ODU two-deep. Unsure as to whether he or Paige will be the WR2 behind Harvey this season. But a reasonable cost, and Fordham had three 1,000-yard receivers a year ago. In three of the four years at Fordham, Decker’s WR3 actually averaged double-digit fantasy points.
Injury Notes – n/a
Virginia Tech:
Top Play(s) – RB Bhayshul Tuten ($5,700) Tuten received rave reviews this offseason after transferring over from North Carolina A&T where he rushed for 1,000 yards in 2022. He’ll share the backfield with returning starter Malachi Thomas ($5,300), but we strongly feel Tuten is the better player of the two. While at A&T a year ago, Tuten hit 100 yards rushing against Duke, to give a sense of his talent.
Fade – QBs. Grant Wells gets the starting nod Saturday, but all indications are that former Baylor transfer Kyron Drones is expected to get considerable playing time as the QB competition is probably extending beyond this week.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Nobody under $4.5k that we’d consider here for a punt play.
Pivot Play – WR Ali Jennings ($6,100) Revenge game (of sorts)? The former ODU transfer faces off with his former team and likely assumes the WR1 role with the Hokies, bringing with him 142 career receptions. 15.1-point projection at $6.1k makes this a solid play. Old Dominion was 103rd in pass play success rate defensively a year ago.
Best of the Rest – WR Jaylin Lane ($5,400) Virginia Tech went out this offseason and revamped the entire receiving corps via the portal, adding not only Jennings but Jaylin Lane (Middle Tennessee) and Da’Quan Felton ($4,500), a 6-foot-5 Norfolk State transfer that posted 492 yards in 11 games. Pecking order at WR should be Jennings>Lane>Felton I believe. The Hokies threw the ball just 47% of the time last season so we wouldn’t advise playing more than one receiver in a lineup.
Injury Notes – n/a
South Alabama vs. Tulane
Point-Spread: Tul -6.5
O/U Total: 55
Implied Score: Tul 31 – USA 24.5
Weather: 82 degrees / 61% rain / 7 mph winds
South Alabama:
Top Play(s) – RB La’Damian Webb ($5,600) This is a misprice no doubt, but I’m also a bit tentative on Webb entering 2023. Very productive in 2023 with 1,065 yards and 15 touchdowns. But about 40% of his production last season came within a two-game stretch. South Alabama also boasts considerable depth at the running back position, notably backup Braylon McReynolds and Kentrel Bullock (Ole Miss). The staff is on record saying they’d like to utilize the depth more. Tulane is 50th nationally in returning defensive production, though were just 89th in success rate against the run last year.
Fade – WR Javon Ivory ($4,500) I thought the Memphis transfer was going to see a higher salary here given the name recognition and his collegiate experience, but is priced correctly. Surprisingly, Ivory sits on the second line of the depth chart behind Jamaal Pritchett ($4,800), and the WR4 usually sees minimal targets in this offense. Speaking of Pritchett, maybe he garners so consideration as a pivot in that last year’s WR3 had 21% of the target share. At that pricing, he could be a value.
Bargain Bin – TE DJ Thomas -Jones ($3,000) Interesting to see that DTJ was listed behind Lincoln Sefcik on the depth chart, despite severely outplaying him a year ago. Thomas-Jones finished fourth on the team in targets (43) and touchdowns (4).
Pivot Play – WR Devin Voisin ($5,100) Debating if I like this play better than Webb actually. Voisin emerged late in the year with four of his five touchdowns coming in the last four weeks, including career highs against Western Kentucky in the bowl game with 153 yards and a score on 13 targets. I wouldn’t double stack this, but I’m also a big fan of slot receiver Caullin Lacy ($5,300) who was second last year in touchdowns (6) and third in targets (86). While OC Major Applewhite has a strong history of producing top-end wide receivers in fantasy football, its been split over the years between outside and the slot as to who winds up as WR1. Both will have a pivotal role in the passing game.
Best of the Rest – QB Carter Bradley ($6,500) From a fantasy perspective, we questioned in the offseason if South Alabama was too deep at wide receiving and running back that it would put a ceiling on the fantasy output. You know who does benefit that South Alabama is returning 83% of their offensive production from last year? Upside is limited for Bradley here in that he’s a complete zero as a runner, but this should be one of the best offenses in the Sun Belt. High floor here at a reasonable cost. If we get 20 fantasy points, we should feel content.
Injury Notes – n/a
Tulane:
Top Play(s) – QB Michael Pratt ($8,000) A tad surprised Tulane is this big a favorite with an implied total over 30 given the experience coming back on the South Alabama defense, ranked 14th in returning production. USA was also top 50 nationally in success rate against both the run and pass. Vegas still thinks we’re getting four touchdowns and Pratt remains the centerpiece of the offense. More will be on his plate in 2023 as there is no Tajae Spears in the backfield.
Fade – WRs. As we saw last year, Tulane spreads the ball around to 5-6 different receivers on a consistent basis. The WR1 under head coach Willie Fritz hasn’t hit 60 targets in a season since 2019. Maybe an experienced option like Jha’quan Jackson emerges as a go-to, but we’re not banking on it.
Bargain Bin – WR Chris Brazzell ($3,700) Full disclosure I know nothing of this player, but when I see a 6-foot-5 redshirt freshman show up on the first line of a depth chart, my interest is piqued.
Pivot Play – RB Shaadie Clayton-Johnson ($5,100) Let us re-emphasize that there will not be a Tyjae Spears-like running back in the Tulane backfield this season. Fritz has employed a RBBC more often than not in the past, and has all the makings with a talented sophomore backup in Iverson Celestine and Liberty transfer Shedro Louis. Spears’ 41% volume share last season was the highest mark of any Fritz RB1 in the last nine seasons. That number sat around 26% on average between 2014-21. theCFFsite’s initial projection is that Clayton, a former Colorado transfer, gets the first carry after averaging over six yards per attempt last season, while also leading the team (yes, better than Spears) in breakaway rush rate.
Best of the Rest – TE Alex Bauman ($3,700) The sophomore tight end saved his best for last with three receptions and a touchdown in the bowl game win over USC. The TE1 for Tulane has caught at least three touchdown passes in each of the last three seasons.
Injury Notes – n/a
