Utah vs. Florida
Point-Spread: Utah -2.5
O/U Total: 51.5
Implied Score: Utah 27 – Florida 24.5
Weather: 80 degrees / 100% rain / 7 mph winds
Utah:
Top Play(s) – RB Tavion Thomas ($5,800) Simply too cheap here and will see extremely high ownership. Thomas accumulated 88% of his seasonal rushing total over the last nine games of the year, and he set a new single-season school record with 21 rushing touchdowns. Thomas could have leveraged his big year into an opportunity to declare for the NFL Draft, but instead choose to return for another season. The 6-foot-2 and 221-pound fifth-year junior will be the heartbeat of the offense, and he’ll be running behind an offensive line that returns four starters from last year’s Pac 12 Championship team.
Fade – WRs outside of Devaughn Vele Both tight ends, who we’ll touch on in a bit, had a higher target share last season than the WR2 and WR3 for the Utes.
Bargain Bin – TE Dalton Kincaid ($3,800) A very talented player that was rumored to transfer to Alabama over the offseason as he was getting bags of cash thrown at him. Strength of the Florida defense is in the secondary at cornerback, and we’re reading that the Utes will look to attack the middle with their dynamic pair of tight ends. Kincaid saw far less targets (45) but led the team with eight receiving touchdowns.
Pivot Play – WR Devaughn Vele ($5,300) Not investing a ton in this passing attack, but Vele is the clear-cut WR1 heading into the year with Britain Covey no longer around. Tremendous size at 6-foot-5, Vele only converted on 51% of his targets, but averaged 16.9 YPC with a 19.5 aDOT. Big-play potential.
Best of the Rest – TE Brant Kuithe ($4,200) was second on the team last year with 18.8% target share and 50 receptions. QB Cam Rising ($5,700) accounted for three or more touchdowns in nearly half of the games he started last season. Cheap enough to deserve consideration but an 18-point projection doesn’t get me excited.
Injury Notes – n/a
Florida:
Top Play(s) – QB Anthony Richardson ($5,000) The straw that stirs the drink. And this is likely his lowest cost of the season. Average positional finish for quarterbacks under Billy Napier in CFF the last five seasons? QB68. Manny Wilkins in 2017 at Arizona State is the comp we hope for with Anthony Richardson this season if he is to live up to the lofty expectations some have set. Wilkins averaged 32 pass attempts per game that year – five more than the seasonal average of Louisiana QBs during Napier’s tenure. Wilkins also posted 138 rushing attempts. Richardson had 401 rushing yards on just 51 attempts. What kind of numbers can he post with 100+ carries?
Fade – WRs No need to pair Richardson with any Florida pass-catchers if Napier’s numbers from Louisiana transfer over. Under 16% target share for the WR1 each of the last two years. The ball is spread around.
Bargain Bin – RB Nay’quan Wright ($4,300) RB1 averages for Napier in his last five seasons of calling plays – 951 yards and 12.6 touchdowns per season. Thought that perhaps Louisiana transfer Montrell Johnson or Lorenzo Lingard would begin the year as the starter, but Wright has been the guy during fall camp. Exceptional pass-catcher out of the backfield with 34 receptions in three years.
Pivot Play – RB Montrell Johnson ($5,300) Learning curve was obviously not steep for Johnson as he came over with Napier from Louisiana, and earned the backup spot on the depth chart. As we know over the years, RB2 earns significant carries in this system, averaging 12.4 attempts per game. Wright has never been a full-time starter in his career, so wouldn’t surprise us to see a shared backfield.
Best of the Rest – WR Justin Shorter ($5,000) Likely WR1 for the Gators this season after coming on strong in the second half of 2021, finishing the year with 41 receptions, 550 yards and a 13.4 YPC average. Again, no need to pair a receiver with Richardson for the slate.
Injury Notes – WR Ricky Pearsall ($3,800) Had missed the last few weeks or so with a foot injury, but Napier said Pearsall should be good to go and was not included on the injury report.
Miami (Ohio) vs. Kentucky
Point-Spread: UK -15.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Implied Score: UK 35 – Miami (OH) 19.5
Weather: 72 degrees / 86% rain / 8 mph winds
Miami (OH):
Second-lowest projected total of the slate so we can fade here. Running backs are of no interest. Only player of consideration here is WR1 Mac Hippenhammer ($5,400). The former Penn State transfer had a successful 2021 season as the RedHawks’ second-leading receiver, finishing with 48 receptions and five touchdowns on 90 targets. Hippenhammer’s 22% target share last season was the highest mark of any Miami (OH) WR2 in the last eight years. Going into 2022, the offense doesn’t exactly have many reliable options outside of Hippenhammer and Indiana transfer Miles Marshall ($4,800), so to finish the year as a Top 20 CFF receiver seems possible, especially when we consider that Sorenson averaged over 100 yards per game in both 2020 and 2021
Kentucky:
Top Play(s) – WR Tayvion Robinson ($5,700) Wan’Dale Robinson led the country last season with a 40.8% target share. New Kentucky offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello comes from the same coaching tree as last year’s OC Liam Coen which places an emphasis on slot receivers. Good news for Virginia Tech transfer Tayvion Robinson who is expected to be utilized in a similar fashion.
Fade – RB Ramon Jefferson ($5,000) Kentucky will probably rotate their running backs more than usual this week, so Jefferson should get a few touches, but Kavosiey Smoke ($5,600) landed the top spot on the depth chart and will get the most run it appears. Just two starters are back on Kentucky’s offensive line.
Bargain Bin – WR Barion Brown ($4,300) If there is a home-run hitter on the Kentucky offense, the game-breaking freshman is the guy. Very impressive of Brown to land a starting spot despite not even arriving on campus until the summer. This is a name to know for 2023 moreso this this year, but in a blowout situation, look for the staff to get him some touches.
Pivot Play – QB Will Levis ($7,800) Will Levis led Kentucky to a 10-3 record and 33 combined touchdowns. His nine rushing scores were the most by a Kentucky quarterback since Randall Cobb in 2009. Levis accounted for at least two touchdowns in nine regular season games, and totaled four or more touchdowns five times. Levis also scored single-digit fantasy points on three separate occasions. Can be a GPP winner or sink your lineups.
Best of the Rest – WR Dane Key ($5,000) Another freshman that appeared in a starting role on the two-deep. A 4-star recruit, Key brings the size to the WR room at 6-foot-3 and is the likeliest to fill the WR2 role next to Robinson.
Injury Notes – RB Chris Rodriguez is suspended and will not play.
Army vs. Coastal Carolina
Point-Spread: CCU -1.5
O/U Total: 53.5
Implied Score: CCU 27.5 – Army 26
Weather: 82 degrees / 82% rain / 9 mph winds
Army:
We’ll keep this one short in sweet. A fun statistic from our “Stats to Know” column from the Summer. Just once in the last eight years has an Army player finished inside the top 40 in FPPG at their respective position – Darnell Woolfolk back in 2017. This year, the Cadets return a pair of rotational options in Jakobi Buchanan ($5,900) and Tyson Riley ($3,000), who will share reps evenly. Big advantage to Riley there based on pricing. Slot-back Tyrell Robinson ($5,100), who once entered the transfer portal in the offseason, is back on the roster and was the only player on the team to average double-digit fantasy points a year ago (10.5). Robinson averaged 11.2 yards per touch in 2021 with six total touchdowns, but slot-backs don’t touch the ball with the frequency and consistency that the fullbacks do. Three different quarterbacks started at one point last season, and that has been the trend over the last three seasons due to injuries and/or ineffective play.
Coastal Carolina:
Top Play(s) – QB Grayson McCall ($7,600) In two seasons as the Chanticleers’ starting quarterback, Grayson McCall has an impressive 53-to-6 TD-to-INT ratio. He was a more productive runner in 2020, when he ran for 569 yards and seven touchdowns, but McCall was a little banged up last year and injuries might have impacted his dual-threat ability. Still, he led an offense that averaged over 40 points per game and finished with the highest passer rating in the FBS (207.65). Last two years, McCall has averaged 22.3 pass attempts per game, while the offense has averaged 41.1 rush attempts per game.
Fade – WRs not named Sam Pinckney ($5,800) There might be some talent in the Coastal WR room, but are not confident enough in anyone outside of the Georgia State transfer to play them just yet. If this offense is anything like year’s past, the WR2 and WR3 don’t really matter anyways. WR1 accounted for 30.4% of the team’s receiving yards the last eight seasons, compared to just 16.3% for the WR2. Big disparity.
Bargain Bin – RB Aaron Bedgood ($3,400) The former receiver is listed behind Bennett on the team depth chart and would get the start should the team’s top playmaker not be healthy enough to play.
Pivot Play – RB Reese White ($4,600) Bennett was the trendy name this offseason, but still a shot White could wind up as the team’s top running back. Just 14% of Bennett’s carries last season came inside the red zone compared to 24% for Reese White. 49% of Shermari Jones’ attempts last season occurred between the tackles in 2021 according to Pro Football Focus. 33% for White and just 13% for Bennett.
Best of the Rest – TE Xavier Gravette ($4,200) Very limited sample size here with just five career receptions, but this is an offense that has utilized the tight end position as well as anyone the last few seasons with Isaiah Likely. The question remains – is that because of the scheme or how good Likely was?
Injury Notes – RB Braydon Bennett ($5,100) Will have to dig in more closer to game-time but head coach Jamey Chadwell said that Bennett and a “couple of receivers” are questionable for the matchup with Army.
Utah State vs. Alabama
Point-Spread: Bama -41.5
O/U Total: 63.5
Implied Score: Bama 52.5 – Utah St 11
Weather: 82 degrees / 81% rain / 6 mph winds
Utah State:
Lowest-projected total of the slate means we can fade altogether. WR Brian Cobbs ($3,600) is the only player deserving of the slightest of consideration. Our offseason questions were answered last week as to who would obtain the Deven Thompkins role from a year ago. Cobbs was the most-targeted Utah State receiver last week, and caught all eight of them.
Alabama:
Top Play(s) – RB Jahmyr Gibbs ($8,300) Doubt Gibbs gets more than 15 carries on Saturday evening, but Gibbs is our top play because of his impact as a receiver and possibly return man as well. Utah State was gashed by UConn last week to the tune of 245 rushing yards. Good luck Aggies.
Fade – WR Tyler Harrell ($4,400) Been banged up for a part of camp, Harrell was a popular choice to land the WR2 job next to Jermaine Burton but is listed as a backup. Maybe he catches a long touchdown but appears to be the fifth or sixth option in the passing game.
Bargain Bin – n/a Everyone is priced up here with Bama projected to score 50+. No salary savers unfortunately.
Pivot Play – QB Bryce Young ($9,200) There are a ton of quarterbacks available to us on the slate, so I doubt people will spend up for Young in a blowout scenario. Looking back, though, Nick Saban usually goes full throttle even in blowouts. Young had a combined 13 passing touchdowns vs. Southern Miss, New Mexico State and Mercer last season.
Best of the Rest – WR Jermaine Burton ($8,800) Risky strategy rostering any Alabama wide receiver other than the Georgia transfer. Seems like everyone has a difference of opinion as to who will fulfill that secondary role behind Burton, whether it’s listed starters Kobe Prentice, Traeshon Holden, last year’s starter JaCorey Brooks, or someone else we’re not considering. I’ll let this situation play out further before confidently rostering someone other than Burton.
Injury Notes – TE Cameron Latu ($4,500) Latu was absent on this week’s depth chart as he just restarted practicing this past week. Unlikely he will play.
Memphis vs. Mississippi State
Point-Spread: MSU -16.5
O/U Total: 57.5
Implied Score: MSU 37 – Mem 20.5
Weather: 85 degrees / 52% rain / 3 mph winds
Memphis:
Top Play(s) – QB Seth Henigan ($5,800) Last year, Seth Henigan became the first true freshman in the history of the program to start a season-opener, and he led all FBS true freshmen in passing yards and touchdowns. He threw at least two touchdown passes in eight of eleven games and had six 300-yard games. The Tigers must replace big-play receiver Calvin Austin III, but Tim Cramsey taking over as offensive coordinator should boost Henigan’s passing numbers.
Fade – WRs 146 receptions and 15 touchdowns are gone with Calvin Austin III and Sean Dykes, both off to the NFL, which means there will be plenty of target opportunities for returnees Javon Ivory, Eddie Lewis, Gabriel Rogers and transfer tight end Caden Prieskorn. But who is THE guy, if there is one? Messaging from the staff all offseason has been pretty clear that the Tigers may not have one.
Bargain Bin – RB Jeyvon Ducker ($3,000) Ducker missed a chunk of this offseason nursing injury, but is listed second on the depth chart behind Brandon Thomas. I likely won’t play either running back vs. a Mississippi State team that has ranked inside the 25 in rush defense each of the last two seasons, but Ducker might be the preferred choice of the two based on pricing. The dude ran for 1,000 yards last season, he’s no slouch.
Pivot Play – WR Eddie Lewis ($5,000) If there is a committee like approach and no alpha like Calvin Austin was, and we think Memphis will have to throw as a two-touchdown underdog, I’ll take a shot on the mid-priced option of the three that will see the lowest ownership in Lewis. Finished tied for third on the team in targets (50) with more touchdown receptions than Javon Ivory. 31 of his 50 total targets came in the last four games of last season, so maybe a player trending upwards.
Best of the Rest – RB Brandon Thomas ($5,600) will start at running back, but is an easy fade in my opinion. Good chance we see a RBBC if Ducker is healthy, and the matchup is not optimal as we alluded to above. Memphis offensive line ranked 89th in Line Yards created last year.
Injury Notes – n/a
Mississippi State:
Top Play(s) – QB Will Rogers ($8,600) Constant RB rotations. 8-9 wide receivers potentially seeing snaps. Go with the man that captains the pirate ship in Rogers who enters his third season under Mike Leach. Last year, Rogers had at least 300 yards passing in eleven of twelve regular season games and threw at least three TD passes eight times. From a volume perspective, Rogers attempted at least 47 passes in all but two games last year and he led the nation in pass attempts per game at 52.5. We’re expecting much of the same in 2022.
Fade – RB Jo’Quavious Marks ($6,900) Snap counts were dead even at the end of last season between Marks and backup Dillon Johnson, who is $900 cheaper. High floor, low ceiling.
Bargain Bin – WR Caleb Ducking ($3,900) We will double-check pregame reports as Mike Leach’s WR rotations can be wonky, but Ducking is our projected WR1 this season, taking over the Makai Polk role. From a historical standpoint, six of the last eight WR1s under Leach have all lined up outside, including Makai Polk who tallied 105 receptions on 139 targets last year. If you want to dig further, five of those six lined up at the Z-WR. Ducking is the favorite to start at the Z.
Pivot Play – WR Rufus Harvey ($6,400) Strange to see DraftKings list a player that had all of five receptions last season in this price range. But Harvey drew rave reviews in the last few weeks for his performances in scrimmages, and nabbed the top spot in the slot over Jaden Walley. For reference, Walley caught a touchdown in half the games played last season, should Harvey see that type of volume.
Best of the Rest – WR Antonio Harmon ($3,000) was deadlocked in a competition with Ducking at the Z and should see rotational reps. Austin Williams ($4,400) might be the safest option among any receiver on the team, turning 52 of his 59 targets into completions. Very little upside, though.
Injury Notes – n/a
Georgia State vs. South Carolina
Point-Spread: USC -12.5
O/U Total: 55.5
Implied Score: USC 34 – GSU 21.5
Weather: 85 degrees / 90% rain / 9 mph winds
Georgia St:
Top Play(s) – QB Darren Grainger ($5,100) The 6-foot-4 and 202-pound dual-threat quarterback threw at least two touchdown passes in seven of the team’s last eleven games and rushed for at least 45 yards eight times.
Fade – Everyone realistically We don’t have anyone projected more than 11 points this week, aside from Grainger who is $100 more expensive than Anthony Richardson who we’d much rather roster here.
Bargain Bin – WR Jamari Thrash ($4,600) Led the Panthers last season in both receptions (32) and targets (50). Accounted for just 17% target share in a run-based offense so we’re unlikely to have him rostered much at all.
Pivot Play – The Georgia State run game is vital to the Panthers success on offense, and should be just as good, if not better in 2022 with four starters back, along with leading rushers RB Tucker Gregg ($4,800) and RB Jamyest Williams ($4,600). GSU finished 31st nationally in Rush Play Success Rate, second only among Sun Belt teams to Coastal Carolina, and were ninth in the country in points per quality possession as a result.
Best of the Rest – TE Aubry Payne ($3,900) led Georgia State with seven touchdowns last season.
Injury Notes – n/a
South Carolina:
Top Play(s) – QB Spencer Rattler ($7,300) Georgia State won’t be a pushover as they rank inside the top 25 nationally in returning production on defense. Rarely did we see a viable wide receiver or running back option from a fantasy standpoint with the Gamecocks so we’ll bank on the quarterback here. Just seven times last year did a South Carolina position player outside of quarterback score 20 or more fantasy points. For reference, Ohio State’s TreVeyon Henderson scored 20 or more fantasy points eight times by himself last season.
Fade – WRs Depth chart is an absolute catastrophe with OR’s everywhere. 21% target share from last year’s WR1, and offensive coordinator Marcus Satterfield does not have a lengthy history of producing high-end wide receiver production. WR1s in his system average just six touchdowns per season.
Bargain Bin – TE Jaheim Bell ($3,600) Has the questionable designation but looks like Bell will play. He’s the ultimate Swiss army knife – a tight end playing wide receiver and running back at times. Bell is the team’s best offensive weapon and will be utilized as such.
Pivot Play – WR Antwane Wells ($4,700) Josh Vann led the Gamecocks with 43 receptions on 71 targets last season, but there is no guarantee he retains his WR1 title with James Madison transfer Antwane Wells Jr. arriving in the offseason. Caught 111 passes and 20 touchdowns in the last two seasons with JMU and looked the part in the spring game with a touchdown reception from Spencer Rattler. I’d take the discount here if wanting to roster a USC receiver, though as we said, that isn’t necessary to pair with Rattler.
Best of the Rest – RB Marshawn Lloyd ($6,100) also has the questionable designation but is ready to rock from all accounts. Average RB1 in this system averages just 11.1 carries per game, which is much of what we saw last year even with Kevin Harris.
Injury Notes – WR Corey Rucker is OUT. RB Christian Beal-Smith is questionable. You aren’t rostering either player even if they were healthy.
Notre Dame vs. Ohio State
Point-Spread: OSU -15.5
O/U Total: 59.5
Implied Score: OSU 37.5 – ND 22
Weather: 77 degrees / 52% rain / 3 mph winds
Notre Dame:
Top Play(s) – TE Michael Mayer ($4,000) Simply too cheap for a player that will likely lead the team in targets and receptions in 2022. We saw Mayer with a $7k salary at times last season.
Fade – QB Tyler Buchner ($5,600) Don’t love the situation here for Buchner in his first career start, on the road, facing a Jim Knowles-led defense. Cheap enough to where he deserves consideration and is a dual-threat that rushed for 336 yards and three touchdowns on 46 attempts. The QB position is stacked for this slate, so I’ll avoid a first-time starter.
Bargain Bin – WR Tobias Merriweather ($3,300) True freshman likely starts Week 1 opposite Lorenzo Styles on the outside. Partially out of necessity given the surplus of injuries at the WR position for the Irish, but Merriweather has been making plays all of camp.
Pivot Play – WR Lorenzo Styles ($5,000) Styles left a lasting impression in the bowl game vs. Oklahoma State with eight receptions for 136 yards and a touchdown on 10 targets. If Mayer doesn’t lead the team in targets, Styles will.
Best of the Rest – RB Chris Tyree ($5,000) Won’t be Kyren Williams that garners 200 carries most likely, but his utilization in the passing game is what makes him a valuable asset. Six receptions for 116 yards and a touchdown on seven targets in the bowl game vs. Oklahoma State. He’s expected to be flexed out in the slot quite a bit to help out the depleted WR corps.
Injury Notes – RB Logan Diggs ($4,400) had his non-contact jersey removed within the last few weeks, and while is likely to play, it will probably be on a limited basis. Expect Chris Tyree and Audric Estime to shoulder most of the load tonight.
Ohio State:
Top Play(s) – WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($8,000) The disrespect putting JSN as the third highest priced wide receiver on the slate. He is the consensus WR1 in college fantasy football. He’ll be rostered everywhere, but this isn’t a player to fade, even in large GPPs.
Fade – QB CJ Stroud ($9,500) Sounds like blasphemy, but I think you need to take the discounts at quarterback to utilize at the other skill positions in this night slate. We don’t have the highest implied score here for the Buckeyes at 37.5 points, and the Notre Dame defense returns eight starters. Stroud did struggle at times the first few weeks of last season.
Bargain Bin – WR Emeka Egbuka ($4,100) Julian Fleming likely gets the nod as the WR3 alongside JSN and Marvin Harrison Jr., but out opinion is Egbuka is the better player. He should find his way onto the field regardless as a former 5-star prospect. WR3 last season for Ohio State had over 20% target share.
Pivot Play – WR Julian Fleming ($5,000) On that subject, Fleming could be the ultimate pivot play if the WR rotations shake out similar to last year. Another former 5-star, Fleming reportedly caught two touchdown passes in a recent scrimmage and is said to have one of the best fall camps of any Ohio State player. This is what the Ohio State target share looked like the past two seasons: 2020 – WR1: 29% WR2: 28% WR3: 6% 2021 – WR1: 23% WR2: 21% WR3: 21%. With an offense that is going to throw for 4,000+ yards, fantasy owners would benefit from knowing whether 2022 target distribution will more closely resemble that of 2020 or 2021. In this case, as usual, we land somewhere in the middle, and the numbers backup our claim. In Ryan Day’s five seasons at OSU, WR3 target share is 12.8%.
Best of the Rest – RB TreVeyon Henderson ($7,500) feels too cheap here and overlooked at his pricing while most focus on the Ohio State passing game. And while we focused on Fleming/Egbuka above, if the target share ends up like 2020, then Marvin Harrison Jr. is in for a monster year. Caught three touchdowns in his last appearance vs. Utah in the bowl game.
Injury Notes – n/a
SMU vs. North Texas
Point-Spread: SMU -9.5
O/U Total: 67.5
Implied Score: SMU 38.5 – UNT 29
Weather: 95 degrees / 33% rain / 7 mph winds
SMU:
Top Play(s) – QB Tanner Mordecai ($7,900) Why is he priced behind Preston Stone, lol? The Mustangs lit up the scoreboard throughout the first five games of the 2021 season, as Tanner Mordecai threw at least 4 TD passes in every game during that stretch and topped the 300-yard mark four times. Injuries and a tougher schedule over the second half of the season led to a decline in fantasy production with Mordecai only accounting for seven TDs in the team’s last four games. Mordecai did more than enough to beat out Preston Stone and should have another big year.
Fade – RB Camar Wheaton ($3,000) Wouldn’t even get cute here but trying to roster Wheaton despite our preseason rankings of the former Alabama transfer. The staff is ramping him up slowly and would expect his biggest impact to be later on in the season.
Bargain Bin – WR Jake Bailey ($4,100) The former Rice transfer made waves during fall camp after arriving over the summer and is already listed atop the depth chart as a starter. Led the Owls with 56 receptions on 84 targets a season ago. Slot receivers have been big-time in this offensive system as we’ve seen in the past with SMU great James Proche.
Pivot Play – RB Tre Siggers ($7,200) Probably too expensive for many, but Siggers is the RB1 until Wheaton is ready. Head coach Rhett Lashlee prefers to have a workhorse as his RB1, as evidenced by the last time he coached at SMU when he had Xavier Jones rush it 244 times.
Best of the Rest – WR Rashee Rice ($8,200) If in bigger GPPs, I’d look towards Rice here as a lower ownership play as he’s priced ahead of JSN. From all offseason reports, Rice is THE guy in the SMU wide receiver room, and the staff will utilize him in the slot and outside, wherever they see fit.
Injury Notes – n/a
North Texas:
Top Play(s) – QB Austin Aune ($5,700) We’ve seen this with a few other teams, but there is so much rotation early in the year at the skill positions that I’d trust the guy who has the ball in his hands most. Played about as well as you can expect last week, relative to Aune’s standards, throwing for 236 yards and three scores. We’re looking at four touchdowns here for the North Texas offense based on Vegas odds here.
Fade – WRs Targets and snap counts were split amongst the top three here between Damon Ward (5), Roderic Burns (4) and Jay Maclin (4). Would lean Burns, if pulling my arm, as he’s the most proven commodity of the bunch with 99 targets a year ago, but not sure UNT has “a guy” at receiver this year.
Bargain Bin – RB Ayo Adeyi ($3,000) Color me shocked to see it was Adeyi getting the most run last week in the UNT backfield with 17 carries, and essentially a three-way split amongst the others. Is this the true rotation? Snap counts went as such, according to PFF – Adeyi (22), Adaway (22), Isaiah Johnson (19) and Ikaika Ragsdale bringing up the rear with (9).
Pivot Play – RB Oscar Adaway ($5,200) I’ll be steering clear, but would be the ultimate pivot play as he did see just as many snaps as Adeyi did last week. North Texas running backs scored the fifth most points in college football last year and return majority of the offensive line.
Best of the Rest – n/a
Injury Notes – As has been the case for the last two years, we’ll see if Jyaire Shorter is healthy or not to play. Still listed atop the depth chart, but didn’t see a snap last week.
Louisville vs. Syracuse
Point-Spread: Lou -5.5
O/U Total: 57.5
Implied Score: Lou 31.5 – Cuse 26
Weather: Dome
Louisville:
Top Play(s) – QB Malik Cunningham ($7,200) Just absurd pricing for a top five quarterback in college fantasy football and our highest projected QB on the slate. I did think this game total would be much higher considering the offensive firepower potential on both sides. Last year, Cunningham scored a rushing touchdown in all but two games, scored at least two rushing touchdowns eight times, and led the Cardinals in rushing.
Fade – n/a Really think all of the projected starters are in play here.
Bargain Bin – TE Marshon Ford ($3,500) I love how relative unknowns at receiver are priced substantially higher than the known commodity in the Louisville passing game with Ford. Led the Cardinals in targets a year ago.
Pivot Play – RB Tiyon Evans ($6,000) The Tennessee transfer was very good last year when healthy, topping 100 yards in three of the first five games. DFS players might be scared off of the possible rotation, or Cunningham vulturing touchdowns, so expect lower ownership. If you’ve been in the Discord, we posted multiple articles about Evans being the superior running back in fall camp.
Best of the Rest – Louisville upgraded at receiver this offseason, bumping up Ahmari Huggins-Bruce ($5,600) to a starting role, and adding Central Arkansas transfer Tyler Hudson ($7,200) who caught 167 passes and 26 touchdowns with the Bears. That duo, along with Ford, will be the top pass-catches this year for the Cardinals.
Injury Notes – n/a
Syracuse:
Top Play(s) – QB Garrett Shrader ($5,600) Another questionable decision on pricing this week with Shrader. His 14 rushing touchdowns led the team and he scored at least one rushing TD in eight of the last 10 games of the year, averaging 77.9 rushing yards per game during that stretch. It will be interesting to see how former UVA OC Robert Anae reshapes the offense this year, but he’s used to working with big and athletic dual-threat quarterbacks (Brennan Armstrong 6-2, 215 & Bryce Perkins (6-3, 215) like Shrader, who played at 6-foot-4 and 230 pounds last year. In nine seasons as offensive coordinator at BYU and Virginia, Anae’s offense has averaged at least 37 pass attempts per game seven times, and his quarterbacks have averaged 16.0 rush attempts per game over the past four years
Fade – WRs Syracuse will throw far more with Anae calling the plays, but there wasn’t much clarity during fall camp as to who “the” guy might be. The outside receiver in Anae’s system has been WR1 in each of the last eight seasons, so would lean Damien Alford ($5,500) here if forced to select.
Bargain Bin – WR Courtney Jackson ($4,300) The junior slot man finished last season as WR1 for the Cuse with 37 receptions on 48 targets. Anae has always had success with a shifty playmaker on the inside with Olamide Zaccheaus and Billy Kemp in year’s past, both of whom posted 100 targets in their best seasons. Is Jackson in store for a heavy target share?
Pivot Play – RB Sean Tucker ($7,800) Running the football became less of a priority for Anae’s offense at Virginia, with the Cavaliers running the ball just 34.1% of the time over the last three seasons, which ranked them 128th nationally, only ahead of air raid teams Western Kentucky and Mississippi St. Now at Syracuse, Anae will be tasked with reinvigorating an offense that has been in the bottom half of the ACC in scoring each of the last three years. We would assume his plan features all-conference RB Sean Tucker, who rushed for nearly 1,500 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2021, but it’s important to note that Anae’s RB1s have averaged just 147 carries per season over the last six years. Is there a chance Tucker affects Anae’s play calling this year, or will Tucker be affected by Anae’s play calling?
Best of the Rest – I’m stunned DK had the wherewithal to list Oronde Gadsden at $5,200. Remember what Anae did with Keytaon Thompson last year? Gadsden runs 6-foot-5 and is not listed as a tight end on the depth chart? He’d been mentioned a few times in fall camp reports, but would be a longshot play here.
Injury Notes – n/a
