East Carolina @ Appalachian State
Point-Spread: App St -10
O/U Total: 56.5
Weather: 79 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
East Carolina:
The ultimate GPP team in East Carolina with their boom / bust nature of either being slate winners or combusting altogether. Much of the offensive issues for ECU could be contributed to their atrocious offensive line play a year ago, an area of emphasis this offseason. As of today, there is considerably more experience and is a much beefier group, averaging 6-foot-4, 308 pounds across the 2-deep.
Good news for the ECU running backs, but also for Holton Ahlers who had to play off-script far too often with defenders harassing him all game long. Does that yield better results? Bad matchup taking on an Appalachian State defense that returns 88 percent of their defensive production last season, though the Mountaineers didn’t exactly pressure opposing QBs at a high rate LY, ranking 65th in sacks per contest. Ultimately, I’m unlikely to have high exposure of a QB taking on a defense in App State that’s projected inside the Top 26 in defensive SP+ and with that much experience. Ahlers has surprised before, though.
The sporadic nature of Ahlers is eerily similar to that of his top WR in C.J. Johnson who has cut considerable weight this offseason and will be moving to the “Z” spot where he won’t have to deal with initial cornerback jams as much. Only strong take with regards to ECU this week is if you are roster Johnson, you must pair with Ahlers with the belief they have success vs. this App State secondary who lost its top CB to the NFL this offseason. Slot-man Tyler Snead is a different story as a naked PPR option after tallying 53 catches on 72 targets to lead the team in 2020.
WR3 is still an open competition between former UCLA transfer Audie Omotosho, Jsi Hatfield and Taji Hudson. ECU must replace 65 vacated targets with Blake Proehl no longer around, but I’ve seen all three players mentioned at one point in time as a camp standout. Don’t think this spot is settled one bit. Tight ends are a non-factor in this scheme.
Keaton Mitchell was a surprise starter on the depth chart, listed ahead of Rahjai Harris though with an OR designation, and expect both see a split workload as they did last year. Mitchell is $1,800 less, had two 100-yard rushing performances in the final three games last season, and is the better pass-catcher of the two so I’d lean that side if choosing.
Appalachian State:
The expectation is that ECU will be improved against the run in 2021 with 87 percent of their returning defensive production back, and the team’s beat writer notated that the group did look improved in the preseason. Looking improved vs. the ECU offense and the Appalachian State offense is a big difference. This was still a group that allowed over 200 yards per contest and 5.16 YPC.
The OR designation between Camerun Peoples and Nate Noel on the depth chart means absolutely nothing to me. I still believe they are listed accordingly with Peoples as the RB1, and they are both talented enough to deserve top billing on any depth chart. Only concern with Peoples is intended volume as RBs in this system are never used in the passing game, and App State boasts considerable depth even beyond Noel with Anderson Castle and Notre Dame transfer Jahmir Smith, both reportedly having good fall camps. Peoples had just 20+ carries in 3-of-11 games played in 2021.
Chase Brice was the worst QB in FBS last season, and that is not sugar-coating it. I think there is a chance he can succeed given the situation he walks into with arguably the best set of skill position players in the Sun Belt, and the winning culture of App State, but I’m taking a wait-and-see approach with Brice. Mountaineers run the ball at a 62 percent clip, so it’s not as though Brice will have a ton of chances to throw either.
Wait-and-see approach with the receivers as well, with the top three back from last season in Thomas Hennigan, Jalen Virgil and Malik Williams, as well as regaining the services of former leading wideout Corey Sutton. One to watch for me would be Virgil at $3,700. New offensive coordinator Frank Ponce is lining Virgil up in bunch formations and in the slot reportedly, which should lead to mismatch opportunities with his 4.3 40-yard dash speed. Expect the targets to be dispersed evenly amongst this group, so not a lot of upside in a run-heavy scheme.
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