Memphis vs. Rice
- Point-Spread: Mem -14
- O/U Total: 49
- Implied Score: Mem 31.5 – Rice 17.5
- Weather: 69 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Memphis:
Top Play(s) – QB Brendon Lewis ($8,100) Your Friday lineups start with Brendon Lewis who should be the most owned player on the slate, with question marks at quarterback with every other team on this slate. The Owls have allowed three passing touchdowns in each of the last three games and are giving up around 21 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. Lewis’ fantasy stock gets a boost too with the Memphis running game struggling of late.
Fade – RB Sutton Smith ($5,700) A theme of this season with the Memphis offense is the moment you think you have the backfield figured out; it gets flipped on its head. Smith has not surpassed 40 rushing yards in any of the previous four games and doesn’t offer the same versatility as a receiver as his backfield counterpart does. Smith is also completely ignored once Memphis enters the red zone with just five rushing attempts inside the 20-yard line. For comparison, that’s less than RB Frank Peasant ($4,100) who rushed for a TD against South Florida last week.
Bargain Bin – Frank Peasant fits the bill best as a bargain option for reasons we laid out above. Multiple running backs could get in on the action with Memphis being a two-touchdown favorite. WR Marcello Bussey ($4,000) is a low floor / low ceiling option, ranked third on the team in routes run with three or more receptions in the last three games.
Pivot Play – No Memphis RB in a lineup. Greg Desrosiers Jr. is the preferred the preferred option of any Memphis running back, but don’t believe it’s a necessity on the slate because of the depth at the position. The season-long numbers look good, but the Tigers have failed to average more than four yards a carry in two of the last three games. Memphis seems content on splitting up the carries between 2-3 backs, with Brendon Lewis also involved which diminishes everyone’s value.
Best of the Rest – WR Cortez Braham ($6,500) or WR Jamari Hawkins ($4,100) I will have at least one Memphis receiver in a lineup as this duo combines for 55% of the team’s receiving production, while Braham accounts for 7 of the team’s 11 receiving touchdowns. Hawkins makes a lot of sense as the pivot play away from Braham or even a stack of the two receivers. Slot receivers have cooked this Rice secondary in recent weeks with Skyler Bell (8-158-1) and Easton Messer (11-110-0). 95% of Hawkins’ routes run this season come from the slot.
Injury Notes – n/a
Rice:
Top Play(s) – RB Quinton Jackson ($6,400) The Memphis run defense has sprung a leak the last two weeks, allowing 219 yards on the ground to UAB and then 295 yards to South Florida this past Saturday where the Bulls averaged nearly 8 yards per carry as a team. Jackson has been very hit or miss this season, though more hit of late, rushing for 100+ in two of the last three games, including 168 yards and three scores vs. Connecticut. Jackson was also big as a receiver out of the backfield with 80 yards and a score.
Pivot Play – WR Aaron Turner ($4,700) or WR Drayden Dickmann ($3,800) Rice doesn’t throw the ball much, ranked 133rd in pass play percentage. When they do, it’s in the direction of either Turner or Dickmann who have accounted for 56% of the team’s receiving production and 60% of the target share. Memphis is 9th in the conference in yards allowed through the air and give up 38 FPPG to opposing wide receivers, so there’s potential for either player to be in the winning lineup. WR Landon Ransom Goelz ($3,300) came back from injury last week and played 50% of the team’s snaps against UConn. He has just six catches for the year, but he’d be a longshot GPP play to differentiate.
Best of the Rest – QB Chase Jenkins ($7,000) 13-point projection at this salary probably eliminates Jenkins from SuperFlex contention and should be used on another quarterback or positional player for this particular slate that doesn’t require 2-QB lineups. That said, we just saw a running QB dominate the Memphis defense this past week with Byrum Brown rushing for 121 yards and a pair of scores. Jenkins is not on that level of player, but double-digit rushing attempts is a possibility.
Injury Notes – n/a
North Carolina vs. Syracuse
- Point-Spread: Syr -2.5
- O/U Total: 45.5
- Implied Score: Syr 24 – UNC 21.5
- Weather: Dome
North Carolina:
Top Play(s) – WR Jordan Shipp ($5,500) Shipp has been the most consistent of the North Carolina wideouts, leading the team in every single receiving category. His usage has increased too over the last two games with Gio Lopez back at quarterback with eight targets against both Cal and Virginia. We want some exposure to a UNC receiver as the Syracuse secondary is allowing 42 FPPG to opposing wideouts.
Fade – RB Demon June ($4,800) June started the game against Virginia, but this backfield continues to trend in the way of former Michigan transfer RB Benjamin Hall ($5,200) who out-rushed the freshman for the third straight game. Syracuse is worse against the run than the pass, ranked 114th in rush D success rate, 85th in explosive run plays allowed and second to last in the ACC in yards allowed on the ground.
Bargain Bin – WR Madrid Tucker ($3,000) The 5-foot-10 freshman made his first appearance of the season and wound up leading the Heels in targets (9) and receptions (8). Tucker will need similar volume because his 9.1 aDOT and 5.1 YPC average likely don’t result in many big plays.
Pivot Play – QB Gio Lopez ($6,900) If you’re choosing a second QB for this slate, that selection is down to either Lopez or Louisiana Tech’s Blake Baker. Lopez has been wildly inconsistent when on the field, but if there is a matchup to play him, this would be it. Syracuse ranks 110th in pass D success rate and are allowing over 26 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season.
Best of the Rest – WR Kobe Paysour ($4,600) Any of the three North Carolina starting WRs are options as they’ve started to get Paysour more involved in the offense that last two weeks, playing over 80% of the team’s snaps. Paysour’s nine receptions in the previous two weeks is more than he had combined in the first five games.
Injury Notes – n/a
Syracuse:
Top Play(s) –WR Darrell Gill Jr. ($5,100) Gill has popped in recent weeks with touchdowns in consecutive games and 18 targets in that span. Why Gill over WR Johntay Cook ($5,700)? Unless we missed an injury, Cook’s playing time dropped significantly against Georgia Tech with just 38% snaps played with two targets. Will be looking pregame to see if we find any news.
Fade – QB Rickie Collins ($7,900) Don’t even bother with this. Reports came out this week that Franc Brown said the starting position is up for grabs due to the recent poor performances from Rickie Collins. He probably starts, but if the struggles persist, expect to see backup Luke Carney at some point which would kill any Collins lineups. Not to mention we still feel like Dan Villari will get some snaps as the Thundercat (wildcat). Before you even ask, yes, Luke Carney is a runner – 1,076 yards and 21 touchdowns in his senior year of HS.
Bargain Bin – TE Dan Villari ($3,900) I am going to speak this into existence – bring back Dan Villari in the Thundercat that we saw two years ago. Maybe that’ll spark this Syracuse offense that has gone backwards since Rickie Collins took over. Either way, North Carolina has struggled to defend tight ends this season, allowing over 13 FPPG to the position. And maybe by chance we get some wildcat looks from Villari if Syracuse makes it to the red zone.
Pivot Play – RB Yasin Willis ($6,800) Outside of the TCU opener, the UNC run defense has been particularly strong, limiting five of seven opponents to less than three yards per carry on the ground. The Heels rank sixth in the ACC in yards allowed per game and are 55th in success rate and 11th in limiting explosive plays on the ground. So, unless Willis is getting 20 touches in this matchup, which he hasn’t had since the opener, there’s not a lot of incentive to have extreme exposure to the Cuse RB1 on this slate.
Injury Notes – n/a
Sam Houston vs. Louisiana Tech
- Point-Spread: LT -17
- O/U Total: 49
- Implied Score: LT 33 – SH 16
- Weather: 56 degrees / 0% rain / 0 mph winds
Sam Houston:
Top Play(s) – RB Landan Brown ($5,000) We liked Brown better at his $3k salary a few weeks ago, but he has the look of a player that is a building block for the future with this Sam Houston offense. The redshirt sophomore surpassed 100 yards rushing for the first time against UTEP in Week 8 and has been arguably the team’s best pass-catcher this season with 29 receptions on 30 targets. La Tech has the No. 1 rush defense in CUSA but have been prone to explosive plays in the run game. RB Alton McCaskill ($5,500) is playable as well, but we like the receiving usage and pricing discount with Brown.
Pivot Play – WR Tim Burns Jr. ($3,000) or WR Malik Phillips ($3,700) If we think the WR rotation remains the same this week, then Burns or Phillips are the receivers to own for the BearKats, as they combined for 13 targets against UTEP in Week 8. Burns has seen a significant uptick in the last two games, playing over 80% of the team’s offensive snaps. We normally don’t have interest in Sam Houston pass-catchers, but LT is giving up over 45 fantasy points per week to wide receivers which is the second most on the slate.
Best of the Rest – QB Hunter Watson ($6,600) Watson will start again per HC Phil Longo and this is a pass defense that he could potentially take advantage of, ranking 10th out of 12 teams in CUSA in yards allowed through the air. LT will also turn teams over with a conference-leading 12 interceptions which could potentially result in a Watson benching as we’ve seen several times already this season. This is also a secondary that allowed 290 yards and four passing touchdowns to a backup QB for Kennesaw State just two weeks ago.
Injury Notes – n/a
Louisiana Tech:
Top Play(s) – QB Blake Baker ($8,500) Sam Houston is, BY FAR, the worst defensive unit on the slate, so we’ll want to load up on Louisiana Tech exposure where we can find it. Baker is coming off a season-best 340 passing yards in the narrow loss to Western Kentucky. We don’t think he needs to throw that much as a 17-point favorite, but Baker also runs with 30 or more yards in the ground in his last five games. Sam Houston is allowing 29.8 FPPG to quarterbacks this season. QBs facing this defense are scoring 56% above their seasonal fantasy point average which is absurd.
Fade – RB Omiri Wiggins ($5,600) Will need to figure out why Wiggins received just three carries against Western Kentucky, giving way to RB3 Andrew Burnette ($4,000) who got Wiggins’ typical 10-12 rush attempt workload.
Pivot Play – RB Clay Thevenin ($6,100) The Louisiana Tech backfield is a big congested, but Thevenin seems to hold down the RB1 role. And while he hasn’t been overly impressive, especially lately averaging under three yards a carry in the last two games, this is a defense to take advantage of. Sam Houston is giving up 184 yards per game on the ground and allowing close to 30 FPPG to opposing backfields.
Best of the Rest – WR Marlion Jackson ($4,900) or WR Devin Gandy ($4,800) I remember specifically on the telecast against Western Kentucky that the announcers said the La Tech staff wanted to get Jackson more involved in the offense that night. That held true with Jackson posting a season-high six receptions on 11 targets for 103 yards. Gandy has not had a boom week like that this season but does lead the Bulldogs in targets and routes run this season, so his time on the field has been consistent. Sam Houston is giving up a combined 46 fantasy points per game to receivers which is the most on the slate.
Injury Notes – n/a
Mike’s DK Core Four:
- QB Brendon Lewis, Memphis
- QB Blake Baker, Louisiana Tech
- RB Greg Desrosiers, Memphis
- RB Clay Thevenin, Louisiana Tech
Mike’s FD Core Four:
- QB Brendon Lewis, Memphis
- QB Blake Baker, Louisiana Tech
- RB Greg Desrosiers, Memphis
- RB Clay Thevenin, Louisiana Tech
