Boston College vs. Syracuse
Point-Spread: Syra -2.5
O/U Total: 51.5
Implied Score: Syra 27 – BC 24.5
Weather: Dome
Boston College:
Top Play(s) – QB Thomas Castellanos ($6,900) We’ve got options at RB for all four teams, so Castellanos is the must-have on the slate for me. Teams seem to be figuring him out as a passer, with less than 190 yards in three of the last four games. But BC also hasn’t had to throw much with their dynamic ground attack that is now 5th nationally in EPA per play. Ball security has been an issue for Castellanos but rushing volume and finding the end-zone have not been. The last three quarterbacks faced by Syracuse have combined for 84 fantasy points scored (Avg 28 Fpts).
Fade – WR Jaden Williams ($4,300) More was expected out of Williams who had a promising freshman year in 2021. Numbers have declined since, and now is fifth among receivers in routes run. Those numbers could diminish even further with the emergence of…
Bargain Bin – WR Jaedn Skeete ($3,500) The 3-star true freshman made his second appearance of the season as he’s assisting in the slot to fill the void of Ryan O’Keefe. Only ran seven routes but had a major impact with his limited time on the field with 61 receiving yards on four targets.
Pivot Play – WR Lewis Bond ($5,000) Bond’s production has tapered off here in the last few weeks with fewer than 10 yards receiving in two of the last three. Seems as though this matchup against Syracuse’s nickel back in the slot could be favorable, though. Safety Jason Simmons Jr. usually has that task and he’s allowed the most receiving yards on the team despite only being targeted 28 times. Six different receivers have scored 20 or more fantasy points against the Orange this season.
Best of the Rest – RBs. Great matchup for Kye Robichaux ($6,700) who now has back-to-back 100-yard rushing performances and four touchdowns in the last two weeks. More than reasonable to stack him with Castellanos given how much BC prefers to keep the ball on the ground since the change at QB. This is a slumping Syracuse run defense that might’ve mailed it in this season, allowing 237 YPG over the last three games. The Orange gave up just 96 yards per game through the first four. The debate is pairing Robichaux with backup RB Alex Broome ($5,000) as a possible GPP differentiator given the defensive struggles for Syracuse. 80 rushing yards on 15 carries last week against UConn. Given BC is currently an underdog, I’d lean no to stacking the entire backfield.
Injury Notes – RB Pat Garwo III ($5,300) Garwo has not played since Week 6 and no update as of Wednesday writing this. Pete Thamel tweeted out his status this past Saturday, so I imagine we’ll find out for sure prior to Friday’s kickoff. Garwo does not impact Kye Robichaux for me but would Alex Broome. WR Ryan O’Keefe ($5,100) suffered a serious neck injury in Week 5 vs. Virginia and is not expected back on Friday (but also not season-ending). TE George Takacs ($3,400) did not suit up against UConn and his status is unknown. The tight end position has been mostly irrelevant this season anyways.
Syracuse:
Top Play(s) – RB LeQuint Allen ($7,600) Nothing is working offensively of late for the Orange, so I can absolutely envision the coaching staff leaning on their best player in Allen. 17 touches per game for Allen facing a BC defense allowing over 18 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. Nobody else will threaten Allen for touches in the backfield.
Fade – WR Donovan Brown ($4,300) No receiver did much of anything last Thursday against Virginia Tech, but it is noticeable that Brown’s reps decreased with WR Isaiah Jones ($5,200) back in the lineup healthy. Routes run were cut in half, Jones played double the number of snaps, and Brown was targeted just once.
Bargain Bin – TE Dan Villari ($4,400) Significant uptick in production the last month for Villari, a former Michigan quarterback, with 13 of his 16 receptions coming in the last four games.
Pivot Play – Allen and QB Garrett Shrader ($7,400) It’s a risk to roster Shrader here given the recent struggles, and if they occur again in the first half, there’s a better than zero chance we might see backup Carlos Del Rio-Wilson at some point. With that said, Shrader and Allen combine for 69% of the team’s designed rushing attempts this season and 72% of the rushing yards. The Orange get to regroup at home after three-straight road games. The matchup shouldn’t scare you off Shrader either, as BC allows 21.4 FPPG to quarterbacks and are 100th in pass play success rate – not great.
Best of the Rest – WR Damien Alford ($4,800) Alford seems to be the preferred option amongst the Syracuse receivers, targeted seven times in each of the last two games, leading the team in routes run during at span.
Injury Notes – WR Umari Hatcher ($4,900) Hatcher played just 19 snaps against Virginia Tech as he left the contest with a leg injury in the second quarter. The quote from Dino Babers this week regarding Hatcher was, “we have to see how it goes.” Thanks Dino.
Colorado State vs. Wyoming
Point-Spread: Wyo -7
O/U Total: 41.5
Implied Score: Wyo 24 – CSU 17.5
Weather: 46 degrees / 6% rain / 19 mph winds
Colorado State:
Top Play(s) – WR Tory Horton ($7,000) We’re giving Horton a projection for now but enters Friday questionable with an undisclosed injury after leaving the game early against Air Force. What makes his status more concerning is that it came out during the telecast last week that Horton wasn’t 100% entering the Air Force matchup either. Second in the country in targets and receptions, so obviously a must-start if we get clearance Horton is healthy.
Fade – WR Dylan Goffney ($4,500) This is dependent on Tory Horton being in the lineup or not. If listed out, Goffney is in play. If Horton is available, we’re close to eliminating Goffney from contention. Zero catches on three targets in the last two games. If you look at the game logs, there is usually one Colorado State receiver getting squeezed each week.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Goffney is the cheapest Colorado State player we’d consider. Top six Colorado State contributors combine for 91% of the target share. Outside of the players mentioned here, doubtful someone else catches a pass or plays meaningful snaps.
Pivot Play – QB Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi ($6,400) There is no reason that BFN should be priced below a Wyoming quarterback. Numbers have fallen off slightly in the last two weeks, scoring just 13 fantasy points against UNLV and Air Force, but not going to totally fault a first-year starter against two of the better pass defenses in the MWC – one of which he faced in the snow. Wyoming does not rank well against the pass – 102nd in pass D success rate and 90th in EPA per pass play. Even if Horton doesn’t play, BFN has more than enough weapons to succeed against this secondary.
Best of the Rest – TE Dallin Holker ($5,500) Holker is TE1 in College Fantasy Football this season, albeit aided by the Brock Bowers injury to achieve that feat. Nonetheless, Holker is second on the team in targets (73) and first in routes run with 619 receiving yards and six touchdowns. Double-digit targets in three of the last four games is almost unheard of for a college tight end. Wyoming allows just 4.4 FPPG to opposing tight ends, but there aren’t many with the skill of Holker in the Mountain West. WR Justus Ross-Simmons ($6,200) had his second strong performance in a row as Horton was hobbled with 128 yards on 14 targets, finding the end-zone in consecutive games. He’s the WR1 if Horton were to miss time. WR Louis Brown IV ($5,400) has run the second most routes on the team behind JRS, though doesn’t provide the bib-play ability like his counterparts with a 9.7 YPC average and 7.9 aDOT.
Injury Notes – Stay tuned to any Tory Horton news. RB Avery Morrow ($4,800) was limited to just three offensive snaps against Air Force after leaving with an undisclosed injury.
Wyoming:
Top Play(s) – RB Harrison Waylee ($5,700) No injury tag for Waylee despite leaving the game again last week against Boise State, managing just 18 rushing yards on 10 attempts. Thanks to a Discorder who provided some context, Waylee’s last touch was with a minute remaining in the third quarter and Wyoming had just eight offensive plays in the fourth. We’ll need to check pregame but seems like Waylee should be g2g. As for the matchup, he’s a must start as Colorado State is allowing over 20 fantasy points per game this season to RB1s. Wyoming is 39th in rush play percentage.
Fade – Backup RBs. This is assuming Harrison Waylee is healthy and active. In the last three games that Waylee has played, he’s accounted for 50 of the 60 rushing attempts that have gone to Wyoming RBs. He’s the bell-cow so long as he’s healthy – which unfortunately is not a guarantee.
Bargain Bin – TE Treyton Welch ($3,900) Second on the team in targets (28) and receptions (22). Colorado State has allowed two tight ends this season to score 26 or more fantasy points against them. Though the two that reached that feat are technically TEITOs (Tight Ends In Name Only) in Middle Tennessee’s Holden Willis and Colorado’s Michael Harrison.
Pivot Play – QB Andrew Peasley ($6,800) Peasley will see the lowest ownership of the four quarterbacks available to us, and with good reason as Josh Allen is the last time a Wyoming QB was fantasy relevant to us. That said, he’s more than deserving of consideration given the matchup. The Rams have allowed four quarterbacks to score 28 fantasy points or more against them this season and are 109th in success rate against the pass. The Wyoming QB has also scored a rushing touchdown in four of the seven games played this season.
Best of the Rest – WR Wyatt Wieland ($4,700) Team leader in every receiving category. Eight different receivers have scored at least 20 fantasy points this season against Colorado State.
Injury Notes – n/a
