***Please note there will not be a Saturday Late Slate writeup this week.
Missouri @ Georgia
Point-Spread: UGA -39.5
O/U Total: 59.5
Weather: 51 degrees / 0% rain / 11 mph winds
Missouri:
Nice simple write-up right out of the gate. Full team fade here. Connor Bazelak is questionable and may not play. We definitely aren’t playing a true freshman QB against this Georgia defense no matter the cost. Same goes for the receivers. Tyler Badie has his lowest projection of the season at just 16 fantasy points as the Bulldogs are allowing just 6.3 FPPG to opposing RB1s this year – best mark in the country. Maybe Badie gets a bunch of dump-offs in the passing game that boost his numbers, but you aren’t paying $7,500 to see if that comes to fruition against this defense.
Georgia:
Why do we feel compelled to include Georgia on these slates? The defense is so good that they completely eliminate any options on the opposition. And because the games are blowouts, we are forced to fade the Bulldogs because they’ll use 3-4 running backs and 7-8 receivers that deplete their fantasy value. Not to mention we are in a “wait and see’ situation with the quarterbacks as we don’t know who will get the nod between Stetson Bennett or JT Daniels. From what I’m reading, it’s going to be Bennett, but Daniels continues to make progressions in practice that make it seem like he’ll see the field either this week or very soon in the coming weeks as UGA preps for the stretch run. We’ve seen instances this season in blowouts where Kirby Smart “tunes up” the passing game in hopes that its clicking come crunch time down the road, but I think the Dawgs will ground and pound their way to a win on Saturday.
That means plenty of Zamir White and James Cook as we all know. But what about the rest of the rotation against the worst rush defense in the country, in a game where UGA is favored by over five touchdowns. Does that put Kenny McIntosh in play for us at $3,900 as he’ll be the third option with Kendall Milton sidelined? Hell, we might even get some Daijun Edwards and Sevaughn Clark action if the scoreboard is that lopsided. Zero interest in the Georgia pass-catchers. Brock Bowers is priced too highly at $6,600. True FR Adonai Mitchell did lead all receivers in snaps vs. Florida, and should see similar game reps if Jermaine Burton remains out. Mitchell, Ladd McConkey and Kearis Jackson are your starting trio and held a significant edge in playing time over the other receivers last week.
Liberty @ Mississippi
Point-Spread: Miss -9.5
O/U Total: 67
Weather: 58 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
Liberty:
I find it amusing how Liberty is ranked 42nd in the country in rushing offense yet we can completely “X” out the Flames’ running backs here. No back has seen more than six carries since Week 7 as this is a split backfield between Shedro Louis, Joshua Mack and T.J. Green. Against the one P5 team on the Liberty schedule, Syracuse, nobody had more than 60 yards on the ground. Louis offers some upside as a pass-catcher with 12 receptions on 12 targets and is averaging nearly seven yards per touch in 2021, but you can fade this three-headed backfield. Mack did not play last week against UMass for undisclosed reasons, and I’m not exactly sure on his status currently for Saturday.
Liberty’s running game is their quarterback in Malik Willis who leads the team with 684 yards and nine touchdowns. Most-asked question this week has been whether or not to start Willis this week against an SEC defense. To that I say, projections indicate yes at 31.1, this should be a favorable game-script being a 9.5-point underdog and Vegas is expecting Liberty to score some points with an implied total of 28.75. I don’t have the exact percentage of touchdowns that Liberty has scored in which Willis has been a part of, but would venture to guess its pretty high. All that said, that road loss at NC State from last year is in the back of my mind as a potential outcome where the Wolfpack forced three interceptions from Willis and held him to just 216 total yards of offense. Low and behold, here is another road spot against a SEC defense. HIGH floor / HIGH ceiling for Willis this week in one of his last chances to impress the NFL evaluators on national television.
Liberty will rotate five different receivers on a consistent basis, and there is no target hog here with five wideouts between 10 and 20 percent of the team target share. If Demario Douglas or CJ Daniels – Liberty’s two best receivers – were cheaper, I’d consider them but not at their salaries. Collectively, those two with DJ Stubbs, Kevin Shaa and Noah Frith comprise a talented group at the G5 level, but there isn’t a different maker within the group. No need to pair Willis with any receiver in a lineup.
Mississippi:
I’m going to take a lesson learned from earlier in the season in DFS and apply it to Ole Miss this week. The Rebels are potentially going to be without their top three receivers this week with Jonathan Mingo (out), and both Braylon Sanders and Dontario Drummond being questionable. Human nature says, “we have to figure out who the cheap replacements are.” I’ve done this, we all have. But is that the right strategy? We’ve all been burned by that line of thinking too. Why not focus on what the Rebels have done well in recent weeks and that’s run the football. No. 3 nationally in rushing, averaging nearly 250 yards per game on the ground, facing a Liberty defense that has allowed 200+ rushing yards in each of the last two games to North Texas and UMass. Not exactly murderers’ row there of dominant rushing teams. We do have a three-headed backfield here too with Snoop Conner, Henry Parrish and Jerrion Ealy, but there is some separation with the Conner/Parrish duo in the projections. Snap counts confirm the projections with Conner leading the way despite averaging under 10 carries a game this season, but leads the team 10 rushing TDs. At his salary of $5,800, I think Conner goes under-owned and is a tremendous GPP play that I’ll be on. Parrish has seemingly taken over Ealy’s starting role as the top usage back, averaging around 15 touches per game. Don’t mind stacking both RBs in one lineup given their pricing. Ealy’s lack of involvement last week against Auburn makes me nervous to roster him – just 15 snaps – but did have 97 rushing yards and a TD on 12 carries the game prior against LSU.
Now to the WR rotations. I don’t feel like typing out all of the possible scenarios with injuries and positional designations because that’s an essay in itself. Against Auburn, Drummond moved back into the slot where he’s been most productive this season. Just four receptions on six targets, but his usage in the slot has been ramped up the last two games inside. The staff moved Jahcour Pearson outside and it proved effective as he had his best game of the season with 7-135-0 on nine targets. If Drummond doesn’t play, I’ll assume they keep Pearson outside and look to other options like John Rhys Plumlee in the slot as he played a season-high 47 snaps against the Tigers. Tight end Casey Kelly’s usage has also ramped up since coming back from injury as he played every single offensive snap for Ole Miss last week and had a season-high seven receptions on nine targets. Liberty has struggled to defend opposing tight ends this season, allowing 8.3 FPPG. The Rebels will be looking to at least one remaining receiver to step up if Drummond/Sanders are out, but I have no idea who that will be between Dannis Jackson, Jadon Jackson or Miles Battle. Those are the min priced guys I will be avoiding.
Matt Corral projects well this week at over 31 fantasy points, but we have someone like Tanner Mordecai with a better projection at a cheap price. Corral concerns me with the injuries at receiver, and has been banged up himself of late. The salary and questionable status label on DK should make him a solid option for GPPs.
Wake Forest @ North Carolina
Point-Spread: UNC -2.5
O/U Total: 77
Weather: 50 degrees / 23% rain / 14 mph winds
Wake Forest:
Here we go with another expected shootout as the 76.5 total implies. Does this matchup live up to the DFS hype or crash and burn our game stack lineups like Ole Miss / Tennessee and Ole Miss / Bama did to us earlier in the year? If this is anything like last season’s matchup between these two teams, we are in for a show as there was over 1,300 (!!!) yards of total offense. Sam Hartman has obvious upside here with the 32-point fantasy projection this week, but worth $10k to roster him as the highest-priced player on the slate? His rushing stats the last month have led to that pricing with five rushing scores in that time period, and Hartman has been near-perfect throwing the ball the last two weeks with eight touchdowns, zero interceptions and over 70 percent completion rate. UNC is middle of the pack in the ACC in pass defense, but is allowing 29.2 FPPG this season to opposing QBs and the Heels have given up three 40+ point performances. Granted, two of those were to Jordan Travis and Jeff Sims who just gashed UNC with their legs. Hartman is a good athlete but not at that level, so we’ll need to likely see the 500+ passing yards similar to what Brennan Armstrong did a few weeks back.
I mentioned this strategy last week with Hartman and it worked out by playing the quarterback, but not pairing him with any receivers. Would I go back to this strategy again? I think I’d want either A.T. Perry or Jaquarii Roberson paired alongside Hartman this week, but these two essentially split targets each week which suppresses their value ever-so slightly. Two other options to look at in the Wake Forest passing game are Taylor Morin or Ke’Shawn Williams who are much more attainable at $3,800 and $4,200, respectively. Morin is on the field a ton, sometimes playing more snaps than either Perry or Roberson, but his production hasn’t been there with under 25 yards receiving in the last three games. Of course, you could always get the 122-yard outburst he had against Louisville in Week 5 because of how explosive this offense is. Still think he’s playing out of position as an outside receiver. For those that play CFF, I’ve mentioned Williams as a top-end dynasty add as he’ll take over the slot receiver position next year when Roberson is in the NFL. I’m tempted to play him this week as a pivot to Morin as Williams has found the end-zone the last two weeks, but I don’t see him getting more playing time in what should be a competitive contest.
Prices make the WF running game enticing, particularly in game stacks, but this is a three-man rotation between Christian Beal-Smith, Christian Turner and Justice Ellison with no distinct leader. And with Hartman now vulturing touchdowns in the red-zone, our interest decreases even more. Against Syracuse in Week 6, there was some separation with CBS seeing 17 attempts vs. just five for both Turner / Ellison, so if you’re leaning one direction, it would be him.
North Carolina:
Unlike Wake Forest, we know exactly where the production is coming from on the North Carolina side. Sam Howell is the highest-projected player on the slate for us, and its much to do with that rushing upside that this UNC staff is finally letting him showcase this season. Howell now has four 100-yard rushing performances this year, and 200 rushing yards in the last two games alone. Double-digit carries every single week this season so no reason he shouldn’t hit that number again. Guess it makes sense since UNC really doesn’t have a RB2 this season like they did last year, so Howell is scooping up those carries. The Wake secondary does a good job at limiting big plays, 43rd in Pass Play Explosiveness defensively, and are limiting opposing QBs to just 59 percent completion rate, but the Deacs are also 109th in Pass Play EPA and 125th in Defensive Success rate vs. the Pass. Howell should have a day here.
Josh Downs is obviously 1A both for North Carolina and receivers on this slate. Do we have interest elsewhere is the big question for me. We saw Antoine Green have a big of a breakout last week against North Carolina with 5-83-1 on six targets. The spot opposite Green on the outside is now vacated with Emery Simmons deciding to enter the transfer portal this late in the year. 6-foot-2 sophomore Justin Olson started opposite Green last week, but had just two catches for 25 yards. Min priced at $3k and is a former 3-star recruit, but it’s not like Simmons’ spot was putting up numbers prior to the transfer – just 11 receptions. Basically, a mystery both ways as to possible outcomes if wanting to roster Olson, but he will be on the field quite a bit as UNC really doesn’t rotate in any other receivers besides the top three.
Will Ty Chandler be the forgotten man on Saturday with so much focus on the quarterbacks? Healthy projection this week for him at 19.3 fantasy points and this should be a major advantage for the UNC run game based on the advanced metrics where the Heels are 7th in Rush Play Success Rate and 9th in Line Yards, taking on a WF defense that is 114th in Rush Play Success Rate defensively, 105th in Rush Play Explosiveness and 120th in Defensive Line Yards. Chandler isn’t getting as many targets in the passing game as we thought prior to the year, with just eight receptions total in eight games, and backup D.J. Jones is really starting to cut into his workload with around 10 attempts per game over the last three weeks.
SMU @ Memphis
Point-Spread: SMU -4.5
O/U Total: 70.5
Weather: 59 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
SMU:
Tanner Mordecai feels like the player I’ll be targeting the most this week on DK with his pricing at just $9k and a projection that’s higher than some quarterbacks priced above him. I’d say that I could employ a similar strategy to last week with Hartman in that I don’t feel the need to pair the QB – WRs in a game-stack but each of the wideouts are also priced down with Danny Gray sitting highest at $6,200. Simply put, you could make the argument for Gray, Rashee Rice or Reggie Roberson Jr. this week and I couldn’t debate you. All solid plays that will see between 6-10 targets every game – we just don’t know exactly who will be the primary beneficiary that given week. Hence, I still don’t mind the strategy of just rolling Mordecai naked either. Tight end Grant Calcaterra is the cheapest of the group at $4k and does have 10 catches on 16 targets in the last two weeks. Memphis is allowing just 1.0 FPPG to opposing tight ends this year, though, which is one of the best marks in the country.
Don’t think we can reasonably consider Ulysses Bentley IV this week as he suffered yet another injury against Houston that was just totally avoidable. SMU clearly misses Bentley’s big-play ability, and Tre Siggers is nowhere near as talented, but the former North Texas transfer has been serviceable in his place, averaging around 17 FPPG with at least one score in the last four weeks. Expectation for me is that Siggers gets the majority of the work again on Saturday. That bodes well for his projection, and you can run on the Memphis defense that is 63rd in Rush Play Success Rate.
Memphis:
All about who the quarterback is here with starter Seth Henigan remaining a game-time decision due to injury that kept him out two weeks ago against UCF. 247 Memphis writers says according to that update from Ryan Silverfield indicates to him that “it doesn’t sound like he has a great chance of playing.” We’ll see. If Henigan is out, that brings us to Peter Parrish who did not impress when thrust into starting duty, throwing three interceptions in the loss to UCF. Silverfield did say that the offensive coaching staff will have a better plan in place this week for Parrish as they’ve now had two weeks to game plan for SMU, but we saw against the Knights how poor of a passer Parrish and if the Mustangs jump out to an early this, Memphis is cooked.
Should Parrish start, I think that realistically takes all of the skill-position players out of our player pool which is unfortunate because Memphis has one of the best groups among the G5 teams. Calvin Austin saw a boatload of targets (11) with Parrish in the game, but clearly didn’t test teams downfield with an aDOT of just 6.4. He’s completely out at his salary. Tight end Sean Dykes is the one you could make an argument for at $4,300 as he’s second on the team in targets (36) and receptions (28) with three touchdowns in the last four games. Henigan’s absence against UCF was infuriating to this Brandon Thomas owner as he essentially became just a puppet in the backfield with Parrish scrambling around left and right. This could go one of two ways. If somehow Memphis surprises us and gets an early lead, Thomas could be the focal point of the offense to bleed clock. If SMU jumps ahead as expect, Thomas will be nearly irrelevant. Huge risk, but the Vegas line hasn’t really moved much towards either Memphis or SMU despite the Henigan updates.
Illinois @ Minnesota
Point-Spread: Minn -14.5
O/U Total: 44
Weather: 55 degrees / 0% rain / 9 mph winds
Illinois:
The “Just Say No” Slogan that Nancy Reagan used back in the 1980s should be applied to any thoughts that run through your head about possibly using Brandon Peters at $4,800. Don’t even mess with it. Same logic applied to the Illini receivers as well. We could get a surprise from the Illini run game that we saw a few weeks ago against Penn State where they went over the 300-yard mark, but this Minnesota run defense is one of the best in the country. Just 12.9 FPPG allowed to opposing RB1s this season and are 23rd in Rush Play Success Rate. Illinois does have a good offensive line that is one of the better run blocking groups in the country, but Minnesota’s ball-control offense won’t allow for Illinois to have a ton of possessions – Gophers are fifth nationally in TOP. Chase Brown is a GPP play only with a high-ceiling / low-floor range of outcomes.
Minnesota:
Out on Tanner Morgan as the Gophers haven’t thrown a single touchdown in the last two games, averaging just 155 attempts per. It looked as though Morgan would be forced into action following the Trey Potts injury, throwing a season-high 25 times for three touchdowns in Week 7 against Nebraska. That was clearly a mirage. The volume keeps me from rostering Chris Autman-Bell, though he is cheap enough at $4,900 that I can’t completely “X” him out of my pool. Just six targets in the last two weeks combined with a negative game script so he’s close to unplayable. At running back, both Mar’Keise Irving and Ky Thomas are playable as they topped 100 yards rushing each for the second straight game against Northwestern. This is truly a split backfield so I’m unsure why there is such a pricing difference between the two, making the more expensive Irving the GPP play of the two. Both are realistically viable options in both formats against an Illinois run defense that is 96th in Rush Success Rate and 12th in the Big Ten overall.
Ohio State @ Nebraska
Point-Spread: OSU -14.5
O/U Total: 67
Weather: 59 degrees / 0% rain / 9 mph winds
Ohio State:
We’ve covered Ohio State so much this year that I’m not sure what else to say about the Buckeyes that’ll help you devise a lineup. I’ll mention this below that I kind of like the idea of stacking the Ohio State offense with Adrian Martinez as a potential run-back candidate with this game total sitting at 66 and the line movement swaying towards Nebraska. That means we probably be seeing the Ohio State offense for four quarters barring we get a few pick sixes from Martinez – totally plausible. C.J. Stroud is a good play as always, and probably under-owned as folks look to either the higher-priced QBs or the bargain bin. Fantasy points have been down the last two games, but the level of play continues to be sky-high. When looking to attack the Nebraska defense, through the air is the better strategy as they’re 81st in Pass Play Success Rate vs. 35th against the Run. Should those numbers deter you from TreVeyon Henderson? Absolutely not as arguably the best running back in the nation alongside Kenneth Walker and Bijan Robinson. Matchup proof and runs behind a dominant offensive line that is 11th in Line Yards. Both Michigan and Minnesota found plenty of success running against the Cornhuskers in recent weeks.
This was 100 percent my cause for concern in CFF prior to the season when it came to the Ohio State receivers. Yes, Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave continue to be exceptional talents and very good options in college fantasy. But Jaxon Smith-Njigba has emerged as a legitimate 1C receiver for the Buckeyes with at least six targets in the last five games. That’s reflected in our projections with the trio sitting between 14 and 18 fantasy points. And for that reason, I think you can get away with playing Stroud naked without pairing a receiver with him. Not to mention tight end Jeremy Ruckert has seen a slight uptick in production of late with 13 of his 19 receptions coming in the last four games. Maybe just a combo of Stroud / Henderson is the best route to go in for a piece of the Buckeye offense.
Nebraska:
Vegas line swinging slightly towards the Cornhuskers this week, so are we thinking Nebraska has a puncher’s chance in this matchup at home? Not if Adrian Martinez throws another four interceptions like he did against Purdue last week, and the fan-base is just about ready to turn the position over to someone else, if they aren’t there already. Implied total here of 25.75 Nebraska should be able to score some on Ohio State this week, and the best way to attack this Buckeye defense is through the air as they are 119th in Pass Play PPA and 85th in Success Rate. I think Martinez is a fine stand-alone candidate at $7k with a projection of 25.4, but also like the idea of game-stacking here with the Ohio State offense in GPPs with the hopes this results in a high-scoring affair. No need to play any of the Nebraska receivers. Samori Toure has six targets in each of the last two weeks, resulting in just three total catches as his production has really tapered off. Omar Manning had a season-high 75 yards and a TD on seven targets vs. Purdue but has not been a reliable option week-to-week. Tight end Austin Allen has been the most reliable of the bunch of late with 10 catches on 14 targets and two scores in the last three games.
I like Rahmir Johnson the player, and he’s cheap here at $5,400 for someone getting the majority of the carries in the Nebraska backfield. Johnson has also shown to be a capable pass-catcher with two receiving touchdowns in the last three games. That said, this is a terrible matchup for the Nebraska offensive line against one of the best defensive fronts in the country. Ohio State is allowing just 14.3 FPPG to opposing RB1s and that number has dropped significantly since the start of the season after the coaching changes on defense. 7th in Rush Play Success Rate and 3rd in Defensive Line Yards. Could be a decent pivot as the focus for lineups will be on Adrian Martinez, but I won’t be rostering Johnson this week.
Auburn @ Texas A&M
Point-Spread: A&M -4
O/U Total: 49.5
Weather: 69 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
Auburn:
Wish I could have gotten to the night slate last week because I was all in on both Tank Bigsby and Bo Nix, and that move paid off handsomely. This week…not so much, in a road spot with an implied total of 22.5. Tank looked really healthy coming out of the bye week, and that rest paid off as he rushed for 142 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries in the win over Ole Miss. Won’t come as easy against A&M this week as they’ve allowed just 66.3 rush yards per game to three of their last four SEC opponents, not counting Alabama. The Aggies are 11th in Rush Play Success rate this season and allowing just 13.6 FPPG to opposing RB1s. If Tank gets 24 carries again Saturday, do I think his $6,800 salary is outrageous? Nope, he’s talent enough to overcome most matchups. Will I be rostering him? Probably not. Were Nix closer to $6,500, I’d have more interest as he’s played some of his best football of his career of late with six total touchdowns in the last two games, completing 75 percent of his passes. Some SEC games can turn into track meets on random occasions, but I just don’t think this one fits the bill. A&M is allowing just 17.6 FPPG to opposing QBs this season and 16th in Pass Play Success Rate.
Kobe Hudson remains my favorite play of the Auburn receivers based on pricing at $4,500, coming off a season-high six catches on seven targets last week. Just don’t see any upside with him with an aDOT of 9.5 and a single TD on the year. He’d need 5-6 receptions and a TD which isn’t guaranteed. We are seeing some separation with the snap counts at receiver with Hudson, Demetris Robertson and Shedrick Jackson pulling away from the rest of the group. I’m fading this trio personally.
Texas A&M:
Nothing stands out here as a significant advantage or disadvantage when looking at the A&M offense vs. the Auburn defense. It’s a middle of the road Tigers’ defense, ranking 7th in scoring, 6th in Rush Defense, 8th in Pass Efficiency and 9th in Total Defense in the SEC. We’ve seen the Aggies go back to their primary strength on offense the last two games, rushing for a combined 573 yards against South Carolina and Missouri, limiting Zach Calzada to just 24 and 25 passing attempts, respectively, in those matchups. Level of competition has a lot to do with both the success on the ground and game-script in my opinion, but also quite possible the offensive line is rounding into form at just the right time and the Aggies have their typical identity back. I lean the latter since A&M has used the same offensive line combination in both games so looks as though they’ve settled on a starting group for the rest of the season.
Isaiah Spiller and Devon Achane should find some level of success Saturday, and their salaries of $7k and $6,700 likely means they go under-owned. Both have gone over 100 yards rushing in the last two weeks, but are now essentially splitting carries. Auburn is 41st in Rush Play Success Rate this season and have allowed over four yards a carry to each of their last three SEC opponents. This A&M run game is trending in the right direction.
Auburn has one of the better secondaries in the country, ranked 24th in PFF coverage grades and are 4th in Pass Play Explosiveness so they don’t allow the big play. A&M won’t really challenge teams vertically so that’s not a problem, and if they do, it’s usually with their outside receivers in Demond Demas or Jalen Preston where we have zero interest. Our interest here is with Ainias Smith and tight end Jalen Wydermyer. The Aggies have used two-tight end sets more in recent weeks which seems to have benefitted Wydermyer who now has 10 receptions on 15 targets with three TDs in the last three games. Auburn has really struggled defending the tight end position this season, allowing 10.7 FPPG so maybe this is a spot for the star TE1 who is trending upwards of late.
Baylor @ TCU
Point-Spread: Baylor -7
O/U Total: 58
Weather: 67 degrees / 0% rain / 8 mph winds
Baylor:
Very surprised to see Gerry Bohanon’s projection of 27.3 fantasy points this week as I’m not sure if Baylor will need to pass the ball more than 20 times against TCU’s horrid run defense. And it’s weird to see Bohanon priced up now at $7,700 despite two marginal performances against BYU and Texas where he threw just one TD and three interceptions. The Horned Frogs are terrible all around defensively, allowing 28 fantasy points to opposing QBs this season and 111th in Pass Play Success rate, but I’m still not sure this game script sets up well for him this week. Does have seven rushing TDs in the last seven games so he provides a high floor.
Abram Smith the play of the week? TCU remains second in the country in fantasy points allowed to opposing RB1s this season at 29.1, and Smith has seemingly seized control of the Baylor backfield with 20+ carries in the last two games. Trestan Ebner is a solid play at $4,100, averaging around 11 touches a game, but hasn’t scored more than 12 fantasy points in a game since Week 2. Anyone can run on this TCU defense, though, so wouldn’t shock me in the slightest to see him hit above his seasonal average. Projections really like the duo of Tyquan Thornton and R.J. Sneed this week, which makes sense because they also like Bohanon. I would advise starting one of the two if in on the QB1 here, as they combined for 19 of the 28 targets last week against Texas.
TCU:
Welp, here’s where we will lose all our money this weekend, because it looks like Chandler Morris will be available to us as the SFlex at $4,500. So. Many. Options with our lineups. Do I advise Morris being a part of your primary cash lineups? Absolutely not. Sprinkle him in your multi-entry GPPs. I think you have to consider. We’ve seen these min priced QBs absolutely bomb before – I remember this walk-on Illinois QB folks were on last year that literally could not complete a forward pass to save his life. That shouldn’t be the case with Morris who is a former 4-star prospect that committed to Oklahoma before transferring over to TCU. If the recruiting rankings are legit, this is someone with actual talent, and running ability as Morris displayed last week in relief of Max Duggan with 38 yards on eight carries. I don’t think the offensive scheme has to change any either with Morris possessing many of the same traits aside from the physical stature where he’s just 5-foot-11, 175 pounds…much smaller than Duggan. The Vegas line hasn’t changed much in recent days so either here so either we’re unaware of Duggan possibly being out or that Morris can get the job done. If we combine the two projections for Duggan/Morris, we’re sitting at around 17 fantasy points. Take that all day if Morris hits that mark at his salary.
Based on the latest update from the TCU 247 writer, doesn’t sound as though Zach Evans will be available Saturday, calling him a ‘big if.” Keandre Miller enters the mix with Evans out, sitting currently as the highest-projected TCU player for us this weekend at 17.4 fantasy points. Very reasonable at $5,700 as Baylor is not a dominant rush defense, allowing over 17 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season and 68th in Rush Play Success Rate. With a backup QB and Gary Patterson’s old ways out the door, might we see an offensive game plan finally centered around the talented running backs? Miller topped 100 rushing yards on just 12 carries last week.
Same story at receiver with Quentin Johnston, Derius Davis and Taye Barber being our only options. QJ remains an enigma, targeted seven times last week, but resulting in two catches for five yards. GPP candidate with the highest ceiling to lowest floor ratio of maybe any player in the country. Davis posted 4-78-0 on five targets against Kansas State while Barber played 60 of the 70 available snaps. Neither has much upside.
Oklahoma State @ West Virginia
Point-Spread: OK St -3.5
O/U Total: 49
Weather: 53 degrees / 0% rain / 2 mph winds
Oklahoma State:
Spencer Sanders has looked better in recent weeks, completing over 63 percent of his passes with five touchdowns and zero interceptions. Yes, one was Kansas. The other was the best defense in the Big 12…on the road. Averaging around 10 carries per game with four rushing TDs this season so he provides a solid floor at his pricing. This game total is just not what we want to see at 49. West Virginia is allowing 26 FPPG to opposing QBs this season and are 69th in Pass Play Success Rate. Sounds like Oklahoma State might be getting healthier at both WR and RB this week but don’t think that changes the dynamic of the rotations at all. This will remain Jaylen Warren’s backfield as it has for much of the year, averaging 26 carries a game since taking over the starting job. Two disappointing weeks in a row for Warren, but consider the circumstances. No. 1 rush defense in the Big 12 followed by a blowout against Kansas where he was not needed at all. Similar to the West Virginia pass defense, nothing stands out good or bad about the run defense either. 62nd in Rush Play Success Rate, allowing 17.2 FPPG to opposing RB1s and have allowed five yards a carry over the last three weeks.
Passing game centers around just two players in Tay Martin and Brennan Presley who combined for 14 of the 22 targets against Iowa State with all three receiving touchdowns. Higher floor with Martin who has consistently produced each week this season, though Presley is coming on of late with four touchdowns in the last three games. Don’t even mess around with a third option here – you’ll get burned. West Virginia is allowing 19.7 FPPG to WR1s this season so I’m starting to like having one of the two WRs on my rosters this week. Not seeing a true correlation as to which types of receivers have beaten WV defenders consistently. Tyquan Thornton and Dontay Demus combined for 54 fantasy points between them, both standing 6-foot-3 and above so maybe this is a Tay Martin game.
West Virginia:
I don’t care much that Jarret Doege had his best performance of the season last weekend against Iowa State – the first time since Week 3 against Virginia Tech that he’d thrown for more than two TDs in a game, despite averaging nearly 35 attempts per contest. Doege doesn’t run at all so he’s touchdown-dependent through the air, and is facing an Oklahoma State defense that allows just 15 FPPG to opposing QBs. To be fair, the secondary is probably the weaker of the two components of the Cowboys’ defense, ranking 56th in Pass Play Success Rate. Low implied total, lower projection, just stay away here. Leddie Brown’s matchup isn’t that great either here, despite back-to-back productive weeks heading into Saturday. Oklahoma State is allowing over 18 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season, but this run defense ranks ninth in the country overall, and 18th in Rush Play Success Rate. Both Bijan Robinson and Deuce Vaughn had receiving touchdowns against Oklahoma State, and we know Leddie can do damage out of the backfield, but I’m not rushing to roster him this week. While not always a productive passing attack, we do know its high-volume, and the receivers are cheap here, all sitting $5k or less. Winston Wright Jr. and Bryce Ford-Wheaton continue to lead the way, both topping 100 yards with three combined TDs last week. Isaiah Esdale has emerged as a competent third option here with Sam James falling by the waste side, with 18 receptions on 21 targets in the last four weeks. I won’t be rostering anyone here, but that trio would be the ones to focus on.
Tulsa @ Cincinnati
Point-Spread: Cin -22.5
O/U Total: 55
Weather: 55 degrees / 0% rain / 2 mph winds
Tulsa:
How are you going to score on Cincinnati on the road when you can’t even muster 20 points against Navy at home? Jeremy Lin-sanity lasted longer than Davis Brin-sanity. He’s terrible, and now facing one of the best secondaries in the country. Shamari Brooks and Deneric Prince are in a time share, and they run behind one of the most disappointing offensive lines in the country this year. No thanks. Maybe you can get on board with one of the WRs in a positive game script. Josh Johnson has consistently been the best Tulsa receiver this year but disappeared against Navy. JuanCarlos Santana is still cheap, under $4k, and had a breakout week with 7-109-0 on eight targets. Tulsa spreads the football around too much to rely on production from anyone for more than a week here, realistically. Full-team fade here and live with the results.
Cincinnati:
We have the motivation narrative working for us if wanting to play either Desmond Ridder or Jerome Ford this week with Cincinnati sitting outside the top four in the first rankings release for the CFP. There will be shakeups inside the top four – I don’t expect Michigan State to win out – but the Bearcats need to win convincingly from here on out to have a good shot at making the playoff. I mentioned last week that it was right around this time last year when Ridder went on his rushing tear over the last 5-6 games, and what do ya know, the senior QB rushed a season-high 13 times last week for 47 yards. Still wasn’t an output that we’d like with just 24 fantasy points, and he’s projected right around that number again this week. Ridder should find some success through the air as Tulsa is allowing 21.2 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season and are just 77th in Pass Play Success Rate. 91st in Pass Play Explosiveness. Both Ridder and Ford are great GPP plays at their pricing as folks will probably shy away because we don’t know exactly who will be vulturing the TDs that given week. I take the same approach every week, for the most part, with Cincinnati pass-catchers. Whatever happens, happens, but I won’t partake in having them in my lineup. Seven different players last week had between 3-5 targets. Tight end Josh Whyle has had a fantastic two-week stretch after being nearly invisible for the early part of the season with four of his five receiving touchdowns coming in that stretch. Alec Pierce is the WR1 here, but has had just 103 receiving yards total in the last three weeks. Just when you count Pierce out and typically when he decides to pop off, but I’m not spending $6,300 with the volume that dispersed. GPP play only, and probably best paired with Ridder.
Navy @ Notre Dame
Point-Spread: ND -21
O/U Total: 47.5
Weather: 55 degrees / 0% rain / 11 mph winds
Navy:
Tai Lavatai is the only player projected to score more than seven fantasy points this weekend, and at $5,800, I’d rather take a shot at Chandler Morris for significantly less. I won’t roster a single Navy player.
Notre Dame:
My interest with Notre Dame is with the receivers this week. I keep coming back to the Wake Forest / Army game from earlier this year. The Irish receivers are nowhere near as good as Wake’s wideouts, but should still have a significant size/speed advantage over the Navy defenders. Kevin Austin Jr. remains the WR1 here with 25 receptions and four touchdowns, but has struggled with drops this season and his targets have decreased since the first month and a half of the year. Avery Davis continues to man the slot-receiver role, and found the end-zone in each of the last three games. The intriguing player for me at $3,500 is 4-star freshman Lorenzo Styles who saw a significant uptick in snaps vs. North Carolina with Braden Lenzy suffering a head injury. Head coach Brian Kelly remains optimistic that Lenzy will play this week, but that’s another player that has struggled with consistency this year. Time for Styles to take over that job? Best time to do it against an inferior opponent. Four targets in each of the last two weeks.
We’ve written about Kyren Williams, Jack Coan and Michael Mayer enough this year that I think everyone knows what to expect. Prices take them out of the equation for me. With regards to Williams, he does project well at over 20 fantasy points and has seen 20+ carries in the last two games. Does he get there against a three-touchdown underdog? Logan Diggs (11-42-0 vs. North Carolina) or Chris Tyree (turf toe) should get some run this week I would think.
Penn State @ Maryland
Point-Spread: PSU -10
O/U Total: 56
Weather: 56 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Penn State:
If entering a large GPP and rostering Sean Clifford, be prepared to share him with over 20 percent of the field at $6k. Cash is fine with Clifford, facing a Maryland defense allowing 25.2 FPPG this season to opposing QBs and are 10th overall in the Big Ten, giving up 241.5 YPG. I’ll probably be fading Clifford in GPPs as I don’t see the upside and his ownership is going to be the highest on the board. He’s also not running as much as he did a year ago under new OC Mike Yurcich which puts a cap on his value. Whether you roll with Clifford or not, I do like WR1 Jahan Dotson quite a bit at 19.2 projected points against a Maryland pass defense that is 95th in Explosiveness through the air. Dotson has seen double-digit targets in six of the eight games played this year. Parker Washington’s role seems to have been marginalized over the course of the season, but had a bounce-back week against Ohio State, catching all nine of his targets for 108 yards. Easy to do when your QB throws it 50+ times which Clifford won’t have to against Maryland. Too pricy for me at $5,400. WR3 KeAndre Lambert-Smith continues to see heavy snaps, on the field over 80 percent of the time with at least four targets in every game this season. Punt play option at $3,800.
Easy answer would be to fade the entire Penn State backfield as the Nittany Lions are 114th in the country in rushing and split carries between 3-4 different options. And…yep, it’s still an easy answer. Don’t care one bit about any of the running backs here. The offensive line can’t run block and they don’t have a difference-maker back there to make up for that.
Maryland:
I’m going to try and be quick about this one, I have zero interest in the Maryland offense. Taulia Tagovailoa is inexplicitly $800 more than Sean Clifford here, facing a Penn State defense that is allowing just 11.3 FPPG to opposing QBs this season. That’s No. 2 in the country to just Georgia. No thanks. The Terps now appear to be rotating in the backfield with Tayon Fleet-Davis and Challen Faamatau, and while the duo combined for three rushing TDs last week against Indiana, they both averaged under three yards a carry. Penn State is far better at defending the pass than the run, but still hold the edge against marginal running backs and a Maryland offensive line that ranks in the bottom-third of the country in numerous metrics.
We finally had a Maryland receiver step up in place of Dontay Demus on the outside with 6-foot-5 Carlos Carriere racking up 8-134-2 on a team-high nine targets vs. the Hoosiers. He’s priced up though now at $5,500 which takes him out of play for me, but his emergence makes Rakim Jarrett a bit more enticing at $4,800 as opposing defenses now have two weapons to account for. Could be bit by this opinion, but there’s too much recency bias built into the Carriere projection and don’t foresee anything close to 15 fantasy points this week. The Penn State pass defense is one of the best in the country, so it’s not a spot I’m targeting, but I expect the Terps to be trailing for much of the contest so game script is in the favor of Jarrett/Carriere.
Michigan State @ Purdue
Point-Spread: MSU -3
O/U Total: 53.5
Weather: 54 degrees / 0% rain / 9 mph winds
Michigan State:
I’m still angry about that sack fumble that was overturned last week against Michigan. Hogwash call that changed the entire dynamic of the game. I digress. Payton Thorne doesn’t project highly this week at just 18.9 fantasy points and could be without his top receiver in Jalen Nailor who is questionable for Saturday. Might as well spend down to Sean Clifford at $400 cheaper or even Thorne’s counterpart in this game in O’Connell at significantly less. Nailor is questionable but is practicing this week with a hand injury, but how does that affect him for Saturday? Jayden Reed becomes a solid play at $6,400 should Nailor be less than 100 percent, as we’ve spoken repeatedly now this season as to how these two dominate the target share for the Spartans. WR3 Tre Mosley did play last week but didn’t log a single target, while Montorie Foster would be Nailor’s replacement in the starting lineup should he miss the game. Why aren’t we high on this Michigan State passing game this week? 10th in the country in yards allowed per game through the air, 4th (yes 4th) in FPPG allowed to opposing QBs at just 13.4 and 4th in Pass Play Success Rate. Who’d a thunk that coming into the season?
I’m also still in disbelief of what Kenneth Walker accomplished last weekend against my Wolverines with five rushing touchdowns. It’s far from a dominant front seven for Michigan, but they’re pretty damn good. Great GPP option this week because nobody is spending up to that price with the amount of solid running backs on this slate. Walker projects well at over 23 fantasy points, but Purdue has been very good at limiting the opposition’s run games as well, ranking 23rd in Rush Play Success Rate and 16.2 FPPG to opposing RB1s.
Purdue:
If you follow my guy Parker Fleming (@statsowar) on Twitter, his analytics are projecting a 37-30 Purdue victory so not only might we see an upset on Saturday afternoon, but we should also be seeing the Boilermakers to score some points. DK bumped up Aidan O’Connell’s pricing just 100 dollars despite throwing for 233 yards and two touchdowns on 45 attempts last week on the road at Nebraska. Just 16.4 fantasy points, but was worth it at this low a salary. I’ve been maintaining that the Michigan State secondary is not as bad as their overall numbers would indicate, sitting last in the Big Ten allowing over 300 yards per game through the air, but are just 68th in Pass Play Success Rate. Allowing 400 passing yards and a career day to Cade McNamara ain’t good though. Purdue is seventh in the country in pass attempts per game at 44. All sets up to have a good bit of exposure to O’Connell this week.
Over – under 215 targets for David Bell this week? Double-digit targets in six of the seven games played this season, and Purdue is unlikely to have starting tight end Payne Durham at their disposal on Saturday who sits second on the team with 36 receptions and four TDs. That takes the tight end position out of the equation as there isn’t a capable replacement on the roster. Who else gets the targets? Milton Wright feels like a safe bet, averaging four receptions on six targets per game, and found the end-zone last week against the Cornhuskers. I also think we have to look at someone like Jackson Anthrop here at $4,300. His season-high of seven catches on nine targets came against Notre Dame in Week 3 when Bell left the game due to injury. We already know one of the mouths to feed is out in Durham so a slight upgrade there. Anthrop had six catches on six targets with a TD against Nebraska, and was also used on the ground with 25 yards on five carries. Fading the Purdue backfield with a split between King Doerue and Zander Horvath. Running the football is not in the Boilermakers’ DNA, ranked 128th nationally against the run.