Memphis vs. UTSA
Point-Spread: Mem -7.5
O/U Total: 60.5
Implied Score: Mem 34 – UTSA 26.5
Weather: Dome
Memphis:
Top Play(s) – RB Mario Anderson ($7,800) When he’s not spitting at defenders, Anderson is one of the best fantasy running backs in the country, scoring 30 or more fantasy points in five of eight games this season with 14 rushing touchdowns. His volume has increased significantly in the last two games with 54 rushing attempts as multiple backup RBs for Memphis have suffered season-ending injuries. Anderson is arguably the best play of the slate.
Fade – WR Jyaire Shorter ($3,300) At one point a few years ago, Shorter was considered one of the top potential fantasy wideouts during his days at North Texas. Now, Shorter averages 2.0 targets per game and around 20% of the team’s offensive snaps.
Bargain Bin – RB Makari Bodiford ($3,000) The freshman running back has moved up to No. 2 on the depth chart with Sutton Smith and Greg Desrosiers suffering season-ending injuries. Bodiford rushed for 73 yards and a TD last week vs. Charlotte in a five-point win…aka meaningful snaps even as a backup.
Pivot Play – QB Seth Henigan ($7,600) I thought we’d see a better statistical season from Henigan from a fantasy standpoint given the majority of the Tigers’ offense returned from last season, particularly his top two receivers. Saturday will be a good opportunity for an offensive breakout, facing a UTSA defense that allows 29 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks and is 81st in EPA per pass play defensively. Four QBs have scored at least 28 fantasy points this season when facing this UTSA defense, and that includes Cooper Legas who made his first start of the year and ECU’s Jake Garcia who was recently benched.
Best of the Rest – WRs. As expected, Roc Taylor again leads the team in targets (60), receptions (29) and receiving yards. DeMeer Blankumsee was a colossal bust early on in the year but is having a resurgence of late with touchdowns in three straight games. Koby Drake is third on the team in targets and receptions, but second in routes run, on the field as consistently as the top two wideouts. Collectively, UTSA is giving up 46 FPPG to wide receivers, so having at least one (and maybe two) Memphis wideouts in your lineups will be profitable.
Injury Notes – RB Brandon Thomas ($4,300) Thomas did not play vs. Charlotte last week. He’s a touchdown vulture in the red-zone that could impact both Mario Anderson and Makari Bodiford.
UTSA:
Top Play(s) – QB Owen McCown ($6,100) McCown is arguably one of the stronger QB options on the slate, having eclipsed 23 fantasy points four times this season, including last week with 434 yards and four touchdowns in the heartbreaking loss to Tulsa. Because of UTSA’s struggles to run the football, the passing volume has spiked with 40 or more attempts in each of the last four games. Memphis is allowing 22 FPPG to opposing QBs this season so we like both the floor and ceiling here for McCown.
Fade – RB Kevorian Barnes ($3,800) Remember when Barnes looked like a potential top 10 fantasy running back two years ago and the heir apparent to Sincere McCormick. Those days are long gone unfortunately as Barnes is averaging just 3.08 yards per carry this season and has been losing reps to younger options like Brandon High and Bryson Donnell.
Bargain Bin – RB Robert Henry ($4,000) Double-digit rushing attempts for Henry in each of the last four games, including a season-high 20 carries vs. Tulsa last week. Rocko Griffin is in the portal, and Kevorian Barnes will likely follow him after the season, so we’re not dealing with the full-fledged RBBC that we have in year’s past with the Roadrunners. Memphis ranks just 70th in rush D success rate.
Pivot Play – TE Houston Thomas ($3,200) Thomas has emerged as the TE1 over Oscar Cardenas, now fourth on the team in targets (38) and third in receptions (20). Thomas is exactly what we look for in a fantasy tight end, playing just 42% of his snaps in-line and 51% in the slot.
Best of the Rest – WRs. This situation will be one to monitor as we’ll be in search of Devin McCuin injury updates on Saturday morning. UTSA primarily deployed two-tight end sets vs. Tulsa last week, so our focus will be on Willie McCoy and Chris Carpenter primarily among UTSA wideouts. The duo combined for nearly 200 yards and two touchdowns on 20 targets last weekend.
Injury Notes – WR Devin McCuin ($5,000) McCuin did not play vs. Tulsa last week, and you won’t find much injury reporting for UTSA prior to gameday.
Ole Miss vs. Arkansas
Point-Spread: Miss -7.5
O/U Total: 53.5
Implied Score: Miss 30.5 – Ark 23
Weather: 59 degrees / 58% rain / 11 mph winds
Ole Miss:
Top Play(s) – QB Jaxson Dart ($9,300) Dart is playing well this season, despite not living up to his lofty preseason fantasy expectations with just 18 total touchdowns – 14 of which came in the month of September. Yardage numbers are good – averaging 336 YPG through the air – but tough to score fantasy points when you’re handing the ball off to a 300-pound defensive linemen once you get inside the five-yard line. I like Dart as a sneaky play this week as Arkansas has the offense to keep up with Ole Miss, and the Razorbacks are 99th in pass D success rate this season.
Fade – RB Henry Parrish ($6,700) Parrish has found the end-zone is six of the eight games played this season, but don’t like the downward trend he’s on, averaging fewer than four yards per carry in each of the last three games. Neither of those three opponents are good at stopping the run either. Go back and look at Parrish’s game logs over the last two seasons, and you’ll see a similar trend of his production declining. There are better RB options at a cheaper price on the slate.
Bargain Bin – TE Caden Prieskorn ($3,300) Prieskorn had his best game of the season vs. Oklahoma last Saturday with 71 yards and a touchdown on six targets. As is the case with several Ole Miss pass-catchers this week, their viability strengthens if Tre Harris does not play. Arkansas is allowing 10.3 FPPG to opposing tight ends.
Pivot Play – WR Antwane Wells ($4,000) Wells seemingly lost his starting spot in Week 7 vs. LSU but he’s needed in the Ole Miss WR room if Tre Harris is out. The Rebels did not rotate AT ALL at receiver vs. Oklahoma last week with Wells, Cayden Lee and Jordan Watkins being the only Ole Miss wideouts to touch a blade of grass on offensive possessions.
Best of the Rest – WR Cayden Lee ($3,900) or WR Jordan Watkins ($4,000) Would have both Watkins and Lee ahead of Wells in my list of preferred Ole Miss receivers, combining for over 100 yards on 10 targets last Saturday. Slot receivers have dominated this Arkansas secondary this year – Brennan Presley and Kevin Coleman combined for 60 fantasy points in their matchup with the Razorbacks. That’d favor Lee here.
Injury Notes – WR Tre Harris ($9,500) Harris was trending towards playing last week vs. Oklahoma…and then he didn’t. Officially questionable for this week again. On his Rebel Talk radio stint, HC Lane Kiffin obviously did not give up any details, saying about Harris, “I hope he plays.”
Arkansas:
Top Play(s) – WR Andrew Armstrong ($6,600) Last week was the first time all season that Armstrong was not targeted 10 times in a game. That’ll likely change this week with a game script likely dictating Arkansas needing to throw the ball more on Saturday. Just once has Armstrong failed to have more than 70 receiving yards in a game all year, and his 30.2% target share is among the highest in the nation.
Fade – WR Tyrone Broden ($3,400) You’d be hard pressed to find a receiver that is less efficient than Broden, who somehow still plays over 60% of the team’s offensive snaps. On 38 targets, Broden has caught just 14 passes, totaling a 36% catch rate with five drops. Yikes.
Bargain Bin – RB Braylen Russell ($3,500) Future is bright at the running back position in the SEC as we’ve seen over the last several weeks (more on Jadan Baugh later). Russell had a career day vs. Mississippi State last week in place of the injured Ja’Quinden Jackson, rushing for 175 yards on just 16 attempts. The pricing here keeps Russell in play as an option, but this is a whole different animal with the Ole Miss rush defense that allows just 76 yards per game on the ground and 15.6 FPPG to opposing backfields. It should be noted that Ole Miss has fallen from No. 1 to No. 4 nationally in rush D success rate.
Pivot Play – TE Luke Hasz ($3,300) Hasz has not met expectations this season as a sophomore with just 14 receptions in eight games thus far. As a freshman, Hasz had 16 catches in just five games played. Was last week a turning point, though, with 59 yards and two touchdowns in the win over MSU? Hasz has a real shot to stack two good weeks in a row, taking on an Ole Miss defense that allows 12.5 FPPG to opposing tight ends. Oklahoma’s Bauer Sharp scored a season-best 16 fantasy points last week vs. the Rebels.
Best of the Rest – QB Taylen Green ($7,500) Green is trending up as a passer of late, completing 73% of his throws with six touchdowns and just two interceptions in the last three games. And his lower-body injury seems to have subsided, rushing for 79 yards vs. Mississippi State. If Arkansas is winning on Saturday, Green has to have a monster performance. WR Isaiah Sategna ($4,000) is second on the team in targets (38), second in receptions (27) and second in routes run.
Injury Notes – RB Ja’Quinden Jackson ($7,200) Will not play on Saturday. Going under on Jackson’s season-long rushing props looking profitable right now.
Air Force vs. Army
Point-Spread: Army -22.5
O/U Total: 41.5
Implied Score: Army 32 – AF 9.5
Weather: 52 degrees / 10% rain / 0 mph winds
AF:
Lowest implied team total on the slate without a single player in theCFFSite projections to project higher than nine fantasy points. RB Dylan Carson ($4,00) is someone I’d have mild interest in because we’ve seen the sophomore fullback be productive in the past, rushing for 477 yards on 7.0 YPC in 2023. Season-high 60 yards on 12 carries in Week 8 vs. Colorado State, and Army doesn’t grade out all that well defensively, ranked 92nd in rush D success rate. WRs Cade Harris ($4,100) and WR Quin Smith ($3,700) combine for 48% of the team’s total targets and 54% of Air Force’s total receiving yards.
Army:
Top Play(s) – QB Bryson Daily ($9,200) will likely have the highest ownership on the slate as our No. 2 highest projected player of the entire weekend in college fantasy. The Army QB1 currently ranks fourth among all quarterbacks in college football in fantasy points scored and is second behind only Washington State’s John Mateer in fantasy points per game. FB Kanye Udoh ($5,500) should also get heavy consideration as a stack with Daily as Army is still No. 1 nationally in rush play percentage. Air Force is dreadful against the run in 2024, allowing 32 FPPG to opposing backfields. WR / RB Noah Short ($5,100) is the team’s Swiss Army Knife, ranked third in rushing attempts, averaging nearly 12 yards per carry and second on the team in targets (14), receptions (9) and tied for the team lead in receiving touchdowns (3) with WR Casey Reynolds ($3,900). Triple-stacking with Daily, Udoh and Short is a viable option.
Duke vs. Miami
Point-Spread: Mia -19.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Implied Score: Mia 37 – Duke 17.5
Weather: 80 degrees / 19% rain / 17 mph winds
Duke:
Top Play(s) – WR Eli Pancol ($4,500) Pancol has emerged as Duke’s top WR1 the last month or so while Jordan Moore has been less than 100%. That was very evident last Saturday, topping 100 yards with a touchdown on 13 targets in the narrow loss to SMU. Pancol leads the Blue Devils in receiving touchdowns and second in routes run.
Fade – QB Maalik Murphy ($6,000) The only way you’re playing Murphy on this slate is in a game stack situation in hopes this game shoots out. We did see a bit of a breakthrough with Murphy and the Duke offense last week, throwing for 295 yards and three scores vs. SMU, notching the first time since Week 3 that Duke’s QB1 scored more than 20 fantasy points in a game. The downside to Murphy is that the strength of the Miami defense is the secondary, ranked No. 4 nationally in pass D success rate and allowing just 17 FPPG to opposing QBs.
Bargain Bin – TE Jake Taylor ($3,200) or WR Sean Brown ($3,300) Taylor will get the TE1 designation the rest of the season with Duke’s top two tight ends out for the season. He played 70% of the snaps with just one reception on two targets. Brown caught four passes on six targets with a touchdown as Duke went to some four-wide sets with the depleted tight end room.
Pivot Play – WR Jordan Moore ($5,700) This is an extreme risk that is probably not worth taking but wanted to note that Moore was back to his normal allotment of snaps last week, on the field 63% of the time with six targets after playing just 18% of snaps the week prior. Moore also has a track record now of absolutely slaying the month of November. 26 receptions between Week’s 11-13 in 2023. In 2022 as a sophomore, Moore was targeted 34 times in that same stretch.
Best of the Rest – RB Star Thomas ($5,900) Volume continues to be there for Thomas who had 17 or more rushing attempts for the sixth time in seven games. We will note that the yards per carry average is at a steady decline, though, in the last three weeks, averaging below four yards per carry. Miami’s run defense can be erratic, ranking 48th in success rate but 97th in EPA per rush play. Like Thomas from a volume standpoint but he’s trending downwards in production.
Injury Notes – n/a
Miami:
Top Play(s) – RB Mark Fletcher ($4,000) So. Many. Options…on the Miami side to choose from. Fletcher gets top billing because of his pricing at $4k in a true 1A/1B situation now with Damien Martinez, rushing for 70 or more yards in each of the last three games. Duke’s run defense is suspect, ranking 15th in yards allowed on the ground in the ACC, 49th in rush D success rate and give up 26 FPPG to opposing backfields.
Fade – RB Jordan Lyle ($3,300) Miami is rolling with the veterans now with the regular season winding down, with Lyle receiving just once carry last week vs. Florida State. And that was with the game well in hand. If you think Miami blows out Duke on Saturday, RB Ajay Allen ($3,000) is the preferred choice of the backup running backs for the Hurricanes.
Bargain Bin – WR Jacolby George ($4,000) George gets the slid nod here over WR Sam Brown ($3,900) as he played 64% of Miami’s offensive snaps the last two games, compared to just 45% for Brown. Not that this is necessarily a thing, but George has a pattern this season of scoring a touchdown in every other game. He didn’t score last week vs. FSU.
Pivot Play – QB Cam Ward ($10,800) Don’t think this is the week where it makes much fiscal sense to spend up to Ward with several attractive options in the $6.5k – $7.5k range at quarterback. Duke’s pass defense appears to be legit too, as they continue to rank inside the top 10 nationally in success rate and EPA per pass play defensively. No QB has scored more than 20 fantasy points vs. Duke this season, and you need at least 30 from Ward to hit value.
Best of the Rest – TE Elijah Arroyo ($3,100) Just two receptions in the last two games for Arroyo, but the Duke defense has struggled at times to defend the tight end position in 2024 with both Bryson Nesbit and Holden Willis scoring 15 fantasy points in their respective matchups with the Blue Devils. RB Damien Martinez ($6,300) is starting to heat up a bit, averaging eight yards per carry over the last two weeks and four rushing TDs in the last three games. Five running backs have scored 20 or more fantasy points vs. Duke this season, so I’d absolutely have one of Martinez or Fletcher in your lineups this week.
Injury Notes – n/a
Minnesota vs. Illinois
Point-Spread: Minn -3
O/U Total: 45
Implied Score: Minn 24 – Illini 21
Weather: 53 degrees / 3% rain / 10 mph winds
Minnesota:
Top Play(s) – WR Daniel Jackson ($5,800) It was a slow start to the year with Jackson dealing with minor injuries at the onset of the season. Not the case anymore as Jackson looks like the 100-target receiver he was a year ago, now with 19 receptions on 25 targets in the last two weeks alone. Five receivers have scored at least 15 fantasy points against the Gophers this season.
Fade – RB Marcus Major ($4,000) Between 5-8 touches a game for a backup running back with this low a total and a tight point spread isn’t going to cut it. Major hasn’t been fantasy relevant since early September.
Bargain Bin – WR Elijah Spencer ($4,000) Three touchdowns in the last two games for Spencer who posted a season-best 99 yards vs. Maryland. Between Jackson and Spencer, they combine for 109 of the 138 targets for Minnesota this season that have gone strictly to wide receivers.
Pivot Play – RB Darius Taylor ($8,400) Taylor was averaging under three yards a carry until the fourth quarter last week with a 51-yard run to seal the win over Maryland. Taylor’s been hit or miss this season running the ball, but this is a good matchup against an Illini defense that is 106th in EPA per rush, 115th in success rate and allowing 26 FPPG to opposing backfields.
Best of the Rest – QB Max Brosmer ($6,000) We wrote last week that Brosmer had a shot at being a capable lineup option, and that paid off as the New Hampshire transfer threw for 300+ and four touchdowns against Maryland. Brosmer is priced up now, and this is a road matchup against a much better defense vs. the pass than last week. Illinois is 61st in EPA per pass defensively and only allowing 16.8 FPPG to quarterbacks. Two of the last three QBs Illinois has faced, though, have scored 29 or more fantasy points so we’re not totally ruling Brosmer out.
Injury Notes – n/a
Illinois:
Top Play(s) – WR Zakhari Franklin ($4,200) Franklin doesn’t have the touchdowns that Pat Bryant does, but the former UTSA transfer leads the team with 36 receptions on 59 targets, accounting for 29% of the team’s target share by himself. His value skyrockets if Pat Bryant (see below) does not play on Saturday, as the Illini have not been able to find a third WR all year.
Fade – QB Luke Altmyer ($5,500) I’ll start by saying this – if you lined up all the QBs that Minnesota has faced this season, it has to be the weakest collection of quarterbacks in the entire country. So, as a result, these numbers are inflated. BUT, the Gophers are allowing just 11 FPPG to opposing QBs on the season, and have yet to allow a QB to score more than 15 fantasy points in a game all year. I don’t see Altmyer being viable on a Main Slate like this.
Bargain Bin – RB Aidan Laughery ($3,000) I’d be lying if I said I had a crystalized picture of what the Illini backfield looks like from week-to-week. So many of these unsettled backfield situations rely on the hot hand, which is Laughery over the last two weeks, averaging six yards per carry with over 110 yards against two good run defenses in Michigan and Oregon.
Pivot Play – RB Josh McCray ($3,700) On that same token, McCray hasn’t necessarily been removed from the equation, with 39 rushing attempts in the last three games. Of the positions that have succeeded against Minnesota this season for fantasy purposes, running backs have stood out, with four players scoring at least 19 fantasy points against the Gophers this season.
Best of the Rest – WR Collin Dixon ($3,400) Of the possible options at WR should Pat Bryant be out, Dixon would get the nod as most appealing, playing 49% of the snaps last week vs. Oregon with six targets.
Injury Notes – WR Pat Bryant ($6,400) Bryant is in concussion protocol after a 4th quarter hit in the loss to Oregon, but HC Bret Bielema sounded optimistic on Monday that the WR1 would be available for Saturday.
Ohio State vs. Penn State
Point-Spread: OSU -4
O/U Total: 47
Implied Score: OSU 25.5 – PSU 21.5
Weather: 46 degrees / 0% rain / 4 mph winds
Ohio State:
Top Play(s) – WR Emeka Egbuka ($6,800) Prior to the Nebraska game, Egbuka had been on a tear with six receiving touchdowns in four weeks with double-digit targets in three straight games. In a matchup of similar importance vs. Oregon, Will Howard leaned on his senior receiver, targeting him 10 times. Egbuka finished a perfect 10-of-10 that night with 92 yards and a score.
Fade – RBs Two groups headed in different directions. Ohio State was limited to just 64 yards on 31 attempts last week at home vs. Nebraska. Penn State, meanwhile, has held five of its last six opponents to under 100 yards rushing and rank No. 3 in rush D success rate nationally. Your guess is as good as mine to if Quinshon Judkins or TreVeyon Henderson is the one to own in a given week, and neither project particularly well.
Bargain Bin – WR Carnell Tate ($3,800) Same deal each week. Ohio State doesn’t rotate at wide receiver and Tate is a close third in routes run this season behind Egbuka and Smith. Best performance of the season last week vs. Nebraska with 100+ yards on four receptions.
Pivot Play – QB Will Howard ($8,100) I’ve learned my lesson to not doubt Will Howard from a fantasy standpoint, as the senior QB has scored 21 or more fantasy points in every game this season. And did so impressively in his biggest matchup on the road at Oregon, throwing for 300+ yards and 30 fantasy points. So, I cannot say fade Howard this week, even though I’m tentative about the matchup. On the road at Happy Valley in cooler temperatures, with a potential spot in the B1G title game on the line, against a secondary that is allowing just 9.0 FPPG to opposing QBs this season. Is this the first game Howard doesn’t get to 20 fantasy points?
Best of the Rest – WR Jeremiah Smith ($7,500) I’ll take the discount and roster Egbuka over Smith this week, but tough to deny not considering the freshman as he’s scored a touchdown in every single game this season. I don’t think this will be a shootout like the Oregon matchup was, but possible to consider stacking Smith and Egbuka in a lineup together as they combined for 23 targets in that matchup. We don’t believe Ohio State will have much success running the ball.
Injury Notes – n/a
Penn State:
Top Play(s) – TE Tyler Warren ($7,100) Has there been a tight end in recent memory outside of Warren and Brock Bowers that have been priced above $7k on a Main Slate? Warren continues to lead the team in every receiving category and has now been targeted 28 times in the last two games alone. And assuming the Nittany Lions enter the red-zone on Saturday, don’t be surprised to see Warren line up in the wildcat with the ability to throw or run – he’s got a rushing and passing touchdown this season.
Fade – QBs. Looked as though Drew Allar practiced this week without much limitation after suffering a knee injury vs. Wisconsin, including a few wind sprints. With that said, many of the game previews continue to indicate that we’re absolutely going to see backup Beau Pribula in some fashion, whether that’s as a rushing threat or see significant game snaps.
Bargain Bin – WR Harrison Wallace ($3,900) Second on the team in targets (35) and receptions (22) behind Warren, and first among Penn State wideouts in routes run. Three or more catches for Wallace in each of the last five games, and you know Ohio State’s primary focus will be stopping Penn State’s All-American tight end.
Pivot Play – WR Liam Clifford ($3,500) Clifford wasn’t a factor early on in the year but has come on in the last month or so, with three or more catches in four of the last five games, and playing 75% of the team’s offensive snaps in the last two games.
Best of the Rest – RBs. Does Penn State take the Michigan approach to beating the Buckeyes on Saturday and dominating the LOS? For as good as Ohio State has been this season, they’re still lacking something in the trenches. Oregon had no issue rolling up 155 yards on the ground in their matchup with the Buckeyes and wouldn’t be surprised to see Penn State lean on the run game with health uncertainties at QB. Ohio State only allows 16 FPPG to opposing backfields and are 11th in rush D success rate, so it’s also a possibility to fade both Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton this week.
Injury Notes – Keep tabs on the QB situation.
Florida vs. Georgia
Point-Spread: UGA -17
O/U Total: 52
Implied Score: UGA 34.5 – UF 17.5
Weather: 80 degrees / 52% rain / 11 mph winds
Florida:
Top Play(s) – WR Chimere Dike ($3,600) 60 or more receiving yards for Dike in four of the last five games and will be counted on more this week with Eugene Wilson not playing. Dike is first on the team in routes run, second in receptions (21) and targets (29).
Fade – QB DJ Lagway ($4,800) Seems like Florida is trying to protect their young 5-star quarterback by not putting too much on his plate with just 31 pass attempts in the last two games. Easy to do last week when the Gators rushed for five touchdowns but can’t imagine there will be a significant uptick in pass attempts for Lagway unless the game is out of hand. Georgia is 20th in pass D success rate and giving up just 16 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks.
Bargain Bin – WR Aidan Mizell ($3,400) or WR Tank Hawkins ($3,200) Both underclassmen receivers will be the ones to pick up the slack with Eugene Wilson not playing Saturday. Last time we saw Hawkins in the stat column was back in Week 6 vs. UCF, catching seven passes on eight targets, and would be my preferred choice of the two.
Pivot Play – RB Jadan Baugh ($4,500) What does the true freshman have for an encore after topping 100 yards with five rushing touchdowns vs. Kentucky in Week 8. I believe Florida will start Baugh regardless of if Montrell Johnson is available or not, but the freshman is obviously downgraded if Johnson does return. Georgia is 42nd in rush D success rate and 44th in EPA per rush, and do get back a key piece along the defensive line in Jordan Hall.
Best of the Rest – WR Elijhah Badger ($4,300) The lack of passing volume for Florida doesn’t necessarily hurt Badger or Dike too much because of their ability for explosives. Badger leads the team in targets and receptions, but also has a 23.8 YPC average with an aDOT of 19.5 yards. Florida’s best hope offensively is to generate explosive plays in the passing game.
Injury Notes – WR Eugene Wilson ($5,800) Declared OUT on Wednesday. RB Montrell Johnson ($4,600) remained questionable on Thursday’s injury report, but Florida has the ability to be cautious with him given the way Jadan Baugh performed vs. Kentucky. Would not be surprised to see him sit.
Georgia:
Top Play(s) – RB Trevor Etienne ($6,500) This one just lines up perfectly for Etienne to be a core component of our lineups, specifically against his former team. Florida is 93rd in rush D success rate. The Gators allow 27 FPPG to opposing running backs. And his production continues to rise as he’s scored 30 or more fantasy points in two of the last three games with his usage increasing significantly in the passing game with 15 catches in that stretch.
Fade – WR London Humphreys ($3,700) The Vanderbilt transfer has been largely irrelevant in 2024 after a promising freshman season with four receiving touchdowns. Slight uptick in the last three games with seven of his nine targets coming in that span, but this is primarily just a three-man rotation at receiver for the Dawgs this season. When has that been the case in the past?
Bargain Bin – TE Lawson Luckie ($3,700) Four targets in each of the last two games for Luckie, facing a Florida defense that has allowed five tight ends to score at least seven fantasy points against them this season.
Pivot Play – QB Carson Beck ($7,900) Would lean slightly towards fading Beck this week rather than inserting him into your lineup as the Florida pass defense remains strong, ranking 27th in success rate and 39th in EPA per pass play. The Gators haven’t allowed a quarterback to score more than 17 fantasy points in a game since September. With that said, I can also envision UGA looking at an opportunity to boost Beck’s confidence after tossing multiple interceptions vs. Texas.
Best of the Rest – WRs. As alluded to above, Georgia isn’t rotating much at all at receiver this year, so you’re only options are Arian Smith, Dom Lovett and Dillon Bell. I’d limit to just one this week as we only roster multiple Georgia receivers in game situations where they’d be trailing potentially – that won’t happen this week. The four highest scoring outputs from a receiver this season facing Florida all came from the slot. Lovett plays in the slot 83.4% of the time, so he gets the slight nod of the group.
Injury Notes – n/a
Arizona vs. Central Florida
Point-Spread: UCF -6
O/U Total: 56
Implied Score: UCF 31 – Ariz 25
Weather: 83 degrees / 32% rain / 12 mph winds
Arizona:
Top Play(s) – WR Tet McMillan ($7,300) Now that was the Tet McMillan last week that we expected to see all season – 202 yards and 10 catches with a touchdown on 14 targets in the win over West Virginia. UCF has a better pass defense than the Mountaineers…but not by much, ranking 13th in the conference in yards allowed through the air and give up 47 FPPG to opposing wide receiver groups. Hint…that’s A LOT.
Fade – WR Montana Lemonious-Craig ($3,400) Finally, it appears Montana Craig was effectively benched last week in favor of WR Chris Hunter ($3,000), playing just 17% of the team’s snaps which was a season-low for MLC. Glad to see this coaching staff trying something new and getting fresh faces on the field, as Hunter has been targeted 11 times in the last three games.
Bargain Bin – TE Sam Olson ($3,000) There’s quite a bit of pressure already on head coach Brent Brennan with a large part of the fan base wanting to make a change after one year. So with that, you’re seeing personnel changes to jumpstart the offense like we did last week again a tight end with Olsen playing significantly more than previous starter TE Keyan Burnett ($3,500). UCF has done an admirable job this season vs. opposing tight ends but did all 16 fantasy points to Cincinnati TE1 Joe Royer earlier in the year.
Pivot Play – QB Noah Fifita ($8,300) Much of the reason for the heat on Brennan and this coaching staff is wasting the talent of McMillan and QB Noah Fifita. We saw some progress last week, posting his best fantasy output since Week 1 with 294 yards, two scores and 28 points. UCF is 104th in pass D success rate, giving up 23 FPPG. There’s a chance Fifita has another big week.
Best of the Rest – RB Quali Conley ($6,400) Conley stays in the mix because of his usage in the passing game, ranking second on the team in receptions (27) and third in targets (28). UCF is better against the run than the pass, but the Knights have given up 250+ rushing yards in each of the last two weeks as their season continues to flounder.
Injury Notes – n/a
UCF:
Top Play(s) – RB RJ Harvey ($9,300) You can’t go wrong with having Harvey in your lineups as he now sits third in the country in rushing yards and tied for fifth in rushing touchdowns. The matchup is good, not great, though. Arizona allows just 24.1 FPPG to opposing backfields, which score around 24% less than their seasonal average when facing the Wildcats. Arizona is 57th in rush D success rate and 52nd in EPA per run play defensively. If UCF wants to win this game, though, Harvey needs 25 touches.
Fade – QBs. The indication is that we won’t know who the starter is until pregame warmups when HC Guz Malzahn walks the sidelines with his QB1. We could see all three of Jacurri Brown, Dylan Rizk or EJ Colson on Saturday. No thanks.
Bargain Bin – WR Jacoby Jones ($3,800) We finally saw someone other than Kobe Hudson make plays in the passing game for UCF, as the Ohio transfer was targeted eight times vs. BYU, finishing with 6-116-1 and played 100% of the team’s offensive snaps. His value is boosted immensely if Hudson doesn’t play this weekend.
Pivot Play – TE Randy Pittman ($3,400) Second on the team in targets (28) and receptions (16) and has played over 85% of the team’s offensive snaps in every contest since Week 1. Arizona has allowed four tight ends to score at least nine fantasy points this season.
Best of the Rest – n/a.
Injury Notes – WR Kobe Hudson ($4,700) Questionable for Saturday as he played just one snap vs. BYU before leaving due to injury.
Kansas State vs. Houston
Point-Spread: KSU -13.5
O/U Total: 46.5
Implied Score: KSU 30 – Hou 16.5
Weather: 80 degrees / 81% rain / 13 mph winds
Kansas State:
Top Play(s) – QB Avery Johnson ($8,000) On the surface, our 27-point projection feels high, but maybe not with the way Johnson has played lately, with 11 combined touchdowns and just three turnovers in the last month. For as bad a year as Houston is having, it’s not because of the defense. The Cougars are 66th in pass D success rate, 54th in EPA per pass play defensively and giving up just 16 FPPG to opposing QBs. We like, but not love this play.
Fade – WR Dante Cephas ($3,500) Should be a min priced player at this point as Kansas State’s WR4, that has played fewer than 20% of the team’s snaps in each of the last two games.
Bargain Bin – TE Will Anciaux ($3,400) Kansas State rotates between three tight ends rather equally, but Anciaux looks to be the best receiving option of the trio, now with three touchdowns in his last four games played. Six of his eight targets this season have come in the last two games alone. Houston has struggled defending the tight end position, allowing four players to score 14 or more fantasy points against them this season.
Pivot Play – RB DJ Giddens ($7,600) HC Chris Klieman said in his Monday press conference that he wants to get his RB1 more touches but needs improvements up from on the OL for that to happen. Giddens has hit 100+ yards in five of eight games this season, facing a Houston defense that is allowing 21.6 FPPG to opposing backfields this season. Assuming this might be a lower possession type game, Giddens could be leaned on.
Best of the Rest – WRs Jayce Brown ($4,200) Brown is underpriced for a player that has 32% of Kansas State’s receiving yards this season, leading the team in targets (45), receptions (30) and touchdowns (3). WR Keagan Johnson ($3,600) and WR Jadon Jackson ($3,800) have separated from the pack as the clear WR2 and WR3 behind Brown, playing around 63% of the team’s offensive snaps in the last three weeks.
Injury Notes – n/a
Houston:
Safest to just fade Houston this week with the second-lowest implied team total on the slate and just one player projected to score double-digit fantasy points. The issue for me is what offensive approach does Houston take vs. Kansas State? Do the Cougars go extremely run-based as they did a week ago vs. Utah, with 230 yards on 49 carries with just 13 total pass attempts? Perhaps, but is that wise against Kansas State who ranks No. 1 in the Big 12 in yards allowed on the ground and 19th in rush D success rate. RBs J’Marion Burnette ($3,000) and Re’Shaun Sanford II ($3,500) get some consideration if Houston takes a similar offensive approach on Saturday, after the two freshman combined for 150+ yards against the Utes. Kansas State is giving up just 21.6 FPPG to opposing backfields this season, so that’s a lot of risk here that doesn’t seem to be worth taking.
Texas Tech vs. Iowa State
Point-Spread: ISU -14.5
O/U Total: 56.5
Implied Score: ISU 36.5 – TT 22
Weather: 56 degrees / 87% rain / 15 mph winds
Texas Tech:
Top Play(s) – RB Tahj Brooks ($8,200) Death, taxes and Tahj Brooks getting 25+ rushing attempts and 100 rushing yards, which he’s done every single week. A trip to Ames may look daunting but the Iowa State run defense is not good, ranked second to last in yards allowed on the ground in the Big 12 and 98th in rush D success rate.
Fade – QBs. Behren Morton is expected to start, but hasn’t been fully healthy in several weeks, and Will Hammond impressed enough vs. TCU in his absence that it wouldn’t shock us to see both at some point Saturday. Not the matchup to even risk that scenario on the road at Iowa State.
Bargain Bin – WR Coy Eakin ($4,100) Hit or miss wide receiver that could give you 30 or lay an egg. Third on the team in targets (50), receptions (26) and the team leader in touchdowns (6). Eakin was on the field for every single offensive snap last week vs. TCU.
Pivot Play – WR Caleb Douglas ($4,800) Yes, we are going with someone else as Texas Tech’s top play that is not named Tahj Brooks. The former Florida transfer looks like Tech’s WR1 the last several weeks, averaging north of 100 yards per game in that span with 22 receptions on 30 targets. Even with Josh Kelly around still, there’s enough targets to go around for a team that throws the ball 40 times a game.
Best of the Rest – WR Josh Kelly ($6,200) Kelly has taken a backseat to Douglas the last several weeks, but still leads the team in targets, receptions, yards and routes run. We know that Tech loves to throw the football, averaging 40 attempts per game, but would also limit one Red Raider receiver in your lineups. Iowa State does not give up a lot of fantasy points to opposing WRs this season. Just 20.5 FPPG collectively to opposing WR groups.
Injury Notes – Check on Behren Morton status if you’re at all interested in rostering the Texas Tech QB.
Iowa State:
Top Play(s) – WR Jayden Higgins ($6,700) and / or WR Jaylin Noel ($5,900) Same story each week as the Iowa State WR duo dominates the team target share at 62% with nine of the 11 receiving touchdowns. Tech is giving up around 43 combined fantasy points each week to opposing WR groups so having both Higgins and Noel (not necessarily recommended) is a potential option. Having one should be a priority.
Fade – WR3. See above – Iowa State doesn’t have one.
Bargain Bin – RB Carson Hansen ($4,100) or RB Jaylon Jackson ($3,500) Five touchdowns in the last two weeks for Hansen, with 90 or more rushing yards in the last three games. Matt Campbell stated this week that the running back that practices the best will be getting the lion’s share of the carries for that game, hence why Hansen is not higher on the list. This still feels like a committee approach, so don’t discount Jackson being in your lineups either. Tech is giving up 30.4 FPPG to opposing backfields this season. Abu Sama also had 10 rushing attempts vs. UCF in Week 8, so maybe he’s a “thing” now again?
Pivot Play – QB Rocco Becht ($6,500) Becht will be one of my preferred pairings this week with Bryson Daily as my two quarterbacks. Texas Tech is 110th in pass D success rate, 115th in EPA per pass play, and allowing 26 FPPG to opposing QBs. I’d want some exposure on the Tech side when Becht is in my lineup as that would indicate a shootout of sorts.
Best of the Rest – TE Benjamin Brahmer ($3,200) Third on the team in targets (16), receptions (10) and just one of four players on Iowa State to have a receiving touchdown this season.
Injury Notes – n/a
Indiana vs. Michigan State
Point-Spread: IU -7.5
O/U Total: 51.5
Implied Score: IU 29.5 – MSU 22
Weather: 52 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Indiana:
Top Play(s) – RB Justice Ellison ($5,200) Tough to get more consistent production than what Ellison has provided this year, scoring a rushing touchdown in all eight games played. And we saw the volume uptick against Washington with 100+ rushing yards on 29 attempts. Came out after the game that Ty’Son Lawton was not 100%, so probably don’t anticipate that 20+ carries a game will be a constant moving forward. What we should expect is that Indiana will continue to lean on the run, so long as Kurtis Rourke is out with injury. Which is still up in the air as of Wednesday. As for the matchup, Michigan State is stout against the run fwiw, ranking 18th in success rate after shutting down the Wolverines last weekend.
Fade – RB Ty Son Lawton ($4,500) Maybe this backfires but we’ll fade Lawton this week for the reasons above. HC Curt Cignetti said last week that Indiana rode Ellison for much of the second half vs. Washington as Lawton had “a little tweak.” Does that tweak linger into Saturday? Michigan State is allowing just 20 FPPG to opposing backfields so only one Indiana running back will be relevant to us.
Bargain Bin – TE Zach Horton ($3,400) Horton plays close to 90% of the team’s offensive snaps with 15 receptions on 18 targets in eight games. Low volume, but Michigan State is continuing their yearly trend of not being able to defend opposing tight ends. Four B1G tight ends have already scored 10 or more points against the Spartans, including 24 last week from Colston Loveland.
Pivot Play – QB Kurtis Rourke ($6,900) Based on an ESPN report on Tuesday, it sounds as though there’s optimism that Rourke will play on Saturday despite the injured hand. TBD on how that impacts his ability to throw the football remains to be seen. The matchup with Michigan State does favor Indiana’s passing game, though, if Rourke suits up as the Spartans are giving up 20.3 FPPG to quarterbacks and rank 104th in pass D success rate.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Elijah Sarratt, Miles Cross and Omar Cooper Jr. have separated themselves a bit from the pack in terms of playing time, each playing over 58% of the team’s snaps this season. Myles Price is the 4th option at just 30% of the snaps but continues to see consistent targets when on the field, with at least four in each of the last three games. While it’s difficult to decipher which Indiana WRs are the best options in a given week, we probably should have one in our lineups. Michigan State has allowed five different WRs this season to score 22 or more fantasy points against them.
Injury Notes – Kurtis Rourke seems to be trending towards playing Saturday.
Michigan State:
Top Play(s) – TE Jack Velling ($3,100) Maybe one day DK will start pricing Velling correctly. 14 receptions on 19 targets in the last three games alone for Velling against three of the better defenses in the B1G as it seems the connection between he and Aidan Chiles is growing. Four tight ends have scored nine or more fantasy points against Indiana this season, which would be all we need from Velling to hit value.
Fade – QB Aidan Chiles ($5,000) The Hoosiers are equally as good defending the run and pass, but just have not allowed many points to opposing QBs this season, giving up just 11.8 FPPG. Not considering Chiles here on a main slate.
Bargain Bin – WR Montorie Foster ($3,500) or WR Nick Marsh ($4,000) The passing game components for the Spartans are just too cheap here for their production, as both Foster and Marsh have played 86% or more of the team’s snaps in each of the last three games. The duo by themselves account for 41% of the team’s receptions and four of MSU’s seven receiving touchdowns. The WR3 spot has essentially been eliminated from the equation as Michigan State is running more two tight end sets.
Pivot Play – RB Nate Carter ($4,800) At one point it appeared as though Kay’Ron Lynch Adams was taking the RB1 job for MSU. And maybe its just a “hot hand” situation now and there is no true RB1, but Carter has that hot hand after last week’s performance vs. Michigan, rushing for 118 yards on 19 carries. Two touchdowns in the last two games as Carter is averaging six yards a carry in that span.
Best of the Rest – RB Kay’Ron Lynch Adams ($4,500) Carter appears to have the upper hand at the moment, but KLA continues to get consistent double-digit touches each week. Limit one MSU running back maximum in a lineup (preferably none) as the Hoosiers are top 30 in rush D success rate, giving up just 21 FPPG combined to opposing backfields.
Injury Notes – n/a
Oregon vs. Michigan
Point-Spread: Oreg -16
O/U Total: 45
Implied Score: Oreg 30.5 – UM 14.5
Weather: 50 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Oregon:
Top Play(s) – WR Tez Johnson ($7,700) It is well-documented at this point in our DFS writeups that Michigan struggles to defend the middle of the field, particularly slot receivers and tight ends. So, of course, Johnson gets top billing for the Ducks as one of the best slot receivers and overall wideouts in the country. Just once all season has Johnson failed to surpass 19 fantasy points in a game.
Fade – n/a – All Oregon players are priced appropriately.
Bargain Bin – WR Justius Lowe ($3,000) If there was a fade option, we might select WR Traeshon Holden ($3,700) who was limited to just two receptions on 50% of the team’s snaps in the win over Illinois last week. Meanwhile, Lowe’s playing time has steadily increased the last three weeks and his 82% of snaps was the most of any Oregon wideout last Saturday. Has Lowe overtaken Holden or is that continuing to stem from the spitting incident against Ohio State?
Pivot Play – RB Jordan James ($8,300) The Michigan run defense has completely underperformed in 2024 despite having two first-round draft picks in the middle of the defensive line. Michigan State had no issues running over this Wolverine defense from the first series of the game last week. James had a full workload with 24 touches in Oregon’s most competitive game of the season vs. Ohio State, so we’ll expect something similar this week after Oregon lightened his load the previous two games.
Best of the Rest – WR Evan Stewart ($4,400) VERY noticeable that Stewart’s biggest games of the season came with Traeshon Holden out of the lineup. The former A&M transfer still played 70% of the snaps last week but resulted in minimal yardage on just four targets. QB Dillon Gabriel ($9,100) is in play each week and has a solid 25-point projection. Michigan is only allowing 16 FPPG to opposing QBs this season but could be without All-American CB Will Johnson for the second straight week.
Injury Notes – TE Terrance Ferguson ($3,400) Eyes will be peeled on the status of TE1 Terrance Ferguson for Saturday as he did return to practice after missing the last two games to injury. Tight ends are averaging 12 FPPG against the Wolverines this season (that’s a lot). Should Ferguson sit, TE Kenyon Sadiq ($3,200) is in play as a bargain bin option with four receptions in the last two games.
Michigan:
Top Play(s) – TE Colston Loveland ($4,800) This should come without surprise with Loveland as the team’s top fantasy option. 35% of the team’s total target share with 50% of Michigan’s receiving touchdowns. All that despite basically playing in just six games because of the injury vs. Arkansas State. Have to figure Michigan will be throwing more than usual as two-touchdown underdogs.
Fade – RB Kalel Mullings ($6,200) We’re going to go a different route here because stating the Michigan QBs as a fade is too obvious. As of Tuesday writing this, nothing is official but pay attention later in the week or Saturday if any sort of punishment comes down for Mullings’ role in the post-game melee at the end of the Michigan State game. If you have interest in Mullings this week, just make sure he’s available and not suspended for a quarter / half, etc. Sounds like possibly some internal punishment could happen.
Bargain Bin – WR Semaj Morgan ($3,400) or WR Tyler Morris ($3,300) Arguments to be made for either player, with the very clear understanding you can’t ever stack Michigan pass-catchers in the same lineup. Davis Warren is a clear upgrade, at the very least, as a passer over Tuttle and Orji so that boosts the Michigan pass-catchers slightly. Morgan has seen a slight uptick in volume with nine targets in the last two games, though he’s never targeted down the field as more of a gadget option. Morris caught just one pass on two targets vs. Michigan State, but played 98% of the team’s snaps, compared to just 45% for Morgan.
Pivot Play – RB Donovan Edwards ($4,700) Edwards might see an uptick in rushing attempts if Mullings is unavailable at some point Saturday. If there is a weakness to the Oregon defense, it is against the run where the Ducks are 105th in rush D success rate. And it’s always possible in these situations that Big Game Don will show up and go for 100+ even when his value seems to be at its lowest point.
Best of the Rest – n/a
Injury Notes – Check status of Mullings in the pregame, though if there is an internal suspension, etc., we may not even know about it until post-kickoff.
