Kentucky vs. Missouri
Point-Spread: UK -1.5
O/U Total: 40.5
Implied Score: UK 21 – Mizzou 19.5
Weather: 43 degrees / 10% rain / 17 mph winds
Kentucky:
Top Play(s) – RB Chris Rodriguez ($6,800) After a fast start against Tennessee, C-Rod did not play much in the second half as he suffered an undisclosed injury. Assuming he’s good to go for Saturday, Rodriguez has accounted for 57% of the team’s rushing attempts since returning in Week 6. While our favorite play on Kentucky, might be wise to fade against a Tigers defense that is stout against the running where opposing RB1s are averaging just 11.7 FPPG on the year.
Fade – QB Will Levis ($6,800) Kentucky players are talking up this week how they’re coming into Columbia angry and ready to bounce back from last week’s embarrassing loss to Tennessee. I’ll side against that notion with Levis facing this Missouri secondary that is actually one of the best in the SEC from a numbers standpoint, allowing 14.8 FPPG to opposing QBs and 17th in Pro Football Focus coverage grades.
Bargain Bin – RB JuTahn McClain ($3,500) This suggestion is just in case C-Rod is less than 100%. I know we saw another backup in La’Vell Wright get eight carries in relief of Rodriguez, but McClain is the RB2 here and nearly doubled the amount of snaps Wright got against Tennessee. To add to any confusion here, Kavosiey Smoke didn’t play last week either. This situation could be messy.
Pivot Play – WRs. We know the situation by now here with the UK receivers. Between Barion Brown, Dane Key and Tayvion Robinson, the trio combines for over 50% target share and of half of the team’s receiving touchdowns. From a high-level standpoint, we don’t see any distinct advantage in rostering one over the other. WR1s are averaging just 13.2 FPPG this season against the Tigers.
Best of the Rest – TE Jordan Dingle ($3,500) The 6-foot-4 sophomore tight end is now fourth on the team in targets (21) and routes run this season and was targeted a season-high six times in the loss at Tennessee. Two touchdowns in the last four games.
Injury Notes – See Chris Rodriguez above.
Missouri:
Top Play(s) – WR Dominic Lovett ($4,900) Lovett has been, by far, Missouri’s best offensive weapon in 2022. Team leader in targets (55), receptions (45) and touchdowns (2), at 3.34 yards per route run – anything close or over to 4.0 yards per route run is considered elite. 81.6% conversion rate on his 55 targets is also borderline elite as Lovett converted on all 10 of his targets last week in the win over South Carolina. Kentucky is 26th in pass play success rate, but 77th in explosiveness which should work in favor of the speedy Lovett.
Fade – QB Brady Cook ($5,900) Simply put, you are never going to play Brady Cook on a 14-game main slate. The Wildcats are allowing just 16.3 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season.
Bargain Bin – RB Cody Schrader ($4,400) The former Division II transfer has established himself as the RB1 for Missouri over Nathaniel Peat who did not play against South Carolina. Why? Not sure, though fumbles have been a concern for the former Stanford transfer. 80+ yards in each of the last two games for Schrader, getting 43% of the team’s carries in that stretch. Double-digit carries from any RB in the $4k range is intriguing, though not the greatest matchup against a stout Kentucky run defense.
Pivot Play – WR Luther Burden ($5,100) Five different Missouri WRs played between 37 and 64% of the offensive snaps last week vs. South Carolina, so they’ll rotate a good bit. Lovett is the only real WR of interest, but we know the 5-star freshman has talent that he can showcase whenever/if the Missouri staff decides to give him opportunities. Tied for team lead in touchdowns (2) and second in targets (44).
Best of the Rest – n/a
Injury Notes – Keep tabs on Nathaniel Peat here as it would play a role in our Cody Schrader interest.
Florida vs. Texas A&M
Point-Spread: A&M -3.5
O/U Total: 55.5
Implied Score: A&M 29.5 – UF 26
Weather: 64 degrees / 10% rain / 2 mph winds
Florida:
Top Play(s) – QB Anthony Richardson ($5,900) You know the infamous quote from the movie Forrest Gump with Tom Hanks saying “My mom always said life was like a box of chocolates. You never know what you’re gonna get.” Same thing applies to Gators starting quarterback Anthony Richardson in 2022. After looking like one of the best players on the field against LSU the week prior, the junior quarterback failed to complete 50% of his passes against the Bulldogs with just 11 yards on the ground rushing. Richardson now has just seven touchdown passes to seven interceptions in 2022, with the 11th-best quarterback rating among the starters in the SEC. Tough matchup again this week for Richardson, facing what is statistically the best pass defense in the conference in A&M as the Aggies allow just 170.1 yards per game through the air.
Now here’s where it gets interesting with Richardson, and yes, we’re spending some time here because he’s really the only player of true interest here. Where Richardson and Florida’s collection of running backs should find success is on the ground as the Aggies rank 121st in the country in yards allowed. We mentioned Quinshon Judkins’ performance in the intro, but QB Jaxson Dart also found plenty of running room with 95 yards on 17 carries. A&M would be wise not to let Richardson get going with his legs. Three quarterbacks this season have now run for 80+ yards on A&M this season (Dart, Jalen Milroe and KJ Jefferson). Potential GPP winner or will cost you every dime you invest Saturday.
Fade – RB Nay’quan Wright ($3,600) Has Wright been injured? Don’t see an injury designation listed and he’s on the game week depth chart yet hasn’t seen a single offensive snap in two games. Either way, it was about time the Florida staff turned this backfield fully over to Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – WR Ricky Pearsall ($4,900) and Xzavier Henderson ($4,800) I don’t fully trust Richardson being able to throw successfully against one of the best secondaries in the country. That said, the trio of Pearsall, Henderson, Justin Shorter and tight end Keon Zipperer combine for 70% of the team’s target share. Both Shorter and Zipperer could be out Saturday. Will all of Richardson’s passes be directed towards Pearsall and Henderson? Not spending a big price tag on either player.
Best of the Rest – RB Montrell Johnson ($5,600) and Trevor Etienne ($4,200) You’re going to see a 55-45 split in rushing attempts between the two which devalues both players. But Florida should be able to run on A&M which ranks 82nd in rush play success rate and 93rd in explosiveness.
Injury Notes – WR Justin Shorter ($4,500) Shorter is listed as questionable with Billy Napier stating “he’ll probably be a game-time decision.” TE Keon Zipperer is OUT.
Texas A&M:
Top Play(s) – RB Devon Achane ($5,500) Crazy to think that there were those who questioned Achane’s ability to handle an increased workload this offseason without the presence of Isaiah Spiller because of his slight of build. Could not be further from the case as Achane has accounted for 74% of A&M’s rushing attempts in 2022. Favorable matchup this week against a Florida defense that ranks 116th in yards allowed per game on the ground. Never a good sign for a team’s run defense when two of the top three tacklers on the team are your starting safeties.
Fade – n/a. I’ll just say anyone that is not listed in this section is a complete fade. Our next highest projected player for A&M that is not listed here sits at 2.5 fantasy points.
Bargain Bin – TE Donovan Green ($3,000) Increased usage from the 6-foot-4 true freshman with nine of his 19 season-long targets coming in the last two games. Everyone benefits from improved QB play.
Pivot Play – QB Conner Weigman ($5,400) Am I going in this direction, probably not. But the price tag here makes the 5-star intriguing after he completed 28-of-44 passes for 344 yards and four touchdowns against Ole Miss last week. Florida secondary can be had, allowing 29.4 FPPG to opposing QBs this season and rank 107th in defensive pass play success rate.
Best of the Rest – WRs Evan Stewart ($6,000) and Moose Muhammad III ($4,700) The latter is going to be popular here with the cheaper price tag, coming off his best performance of the season with 8-112-1 vs. Ole Miss last week. That makes Stewart one hell of a pivot play in GPPs. He’s A&M’s WR1, averaging 10.1 targets per game. Both are playable, and playable together if you think the Aggies are going to put up a large number on the Gators.
Injury Notes – n/a
Texas Tech vs. TCU
Point-Spread: TCU -8.5
O/U Total: 69.5
Implied Score: TCU 39 – Tx Tech 30.5
Weather: 57 degrees / 0% rain / 9 mph winds
Texas Tech:
Top Play(s) – QB Behren Morton ($6,900) I imagine this will have readers rolling their eyes. The facts of the matter are that Behren Morton is expected to start for the third-straight game. Texas Tech is projected to score at least four touchdowns on Saturday per Vegas, and the goal in any Zach Kittley offense is 100 plays a game so we know for certain Tech is playing fast. Three big 12 quarterbacks have score 30+ fantasy points against the Horned Frogs this season, two of which were backups to start the year. I won’t have a ton of shares of Morton on Saturday, but you’d have to imagine everyone else is thinking similarly after last week’s performance. One notable difference between Morton’s performance last week and the two starts prior. Average depth of target was 13.3 vs. Baylor. Against Oklahoma State and West Virginia, that number was less than eight. The quick, short passing game should be the gameplan.
Fade – WRs. Pure guessing game at this point that I really don’t want any part of anymore. Both Myles Price and Nehemiah Martinez out-snapped Xavier White against Baylor so the slot receiver position is now a convoluted mess. No receiver had more than six targets against Baylor.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – RB Tahj Brooks ($5,700) and SaRodorick Thompson ($4,900) Both of them get listed, not only because they’ll split snaps, but it’s been a topsy turvy situation all season where the Tech staff will ride the hot hand in a given week. Last week it was Brooks’ turn, rushing for 98 yards on 16 carries. Tech should be able to run on TCU who ranks 83rd in rush play success rate defensively and allowed four RBs to top 20 fantasy points against them this season.
Best of the Rest – n/a. For now, if interested in Morton this weekend as a pivot play, I think you roll him naked and look elsewhere for WRs.
Injury Notes – n/a
TCU:
Top Play(s) – RB Kendre Miller ($6,300) I wouldn’t be scared off by the 12 carries against West Virginia as Miller stated in his presser this week that he suffered a bone bruise on his hand. And to quote Miller, it’s no big deal. Texas Tech is 68th in rush play success rate, but have allowed opposing RB1s to average 21.9 FPPG this season. I think we might gain some leverage on the slate by the 12 rushing attempts last week.
Fade – QB Quentin Johnston ($7,400) Hopefully don’t get burned with this suggestion because at $7,400 and a 20-point projection, that would be a costly miss. And this isn’t to say completely fade Johnston either because he’s averaged 28 FPPG over the last four weeks and leads the Horned Frogs with 28% target share. But if there is a defense in the Big 12 equipped to matchup with Johnston, it would be the Tech secondary. Both starting corners stand 6-foot-3 and have only allowed one WR all year to score 20+ fantasy points on them.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – QB Max Duggan ($8,500) Tech has done a moderate job defending the pass in 2022, allowing 24.3 FPPG to opposing QBs and 21st in pass play success rate. The dual-threats have killed the Red Raiders, though. Spencer Sanders = 38 fantasy points with 56 rushing yards and two scores on the ground. Adrian Martinez – 46 fantasy points with 171 rushing yards on the ground with three TDs. My guess is we see one of Duggan’s better rushing performances on Saturday.
Best of the Rest – WRs not named Quentin Johnston. We’ve dismissed this group all year, and they remain somewhat pricy when comparing to their season-long numbers, but we’re starting to see some separation. Between Johnston, Taye Barber, Savion Williams and Derius Davis, that foursome played over 50% of the team’s offense snaps against West Virginia and combined for 20 of the 24 targets. Nobody else was involved in the passing game outside of that group.
Injury Notes – n/a
Minnesota vs. Nebraska
Point-Spread: Minn -15.5
O/U Total: 45.5
Implied Score: Minn 30.5 – Neb 15
Weather: 43 degrees / 10% rain / 11 mph winds
Minnesota:
Even in 30+ point blowouts, PJ Fleck continues to ride his horse in big RB Mo Ibrahim ($7,300) who now has 66 carries in the last two games alone. Nebraska has allowed the third most fantasy points to RB1s in the entire country. This could get ugly. Likely won’t target anyone else but can make the arguments for WR Daniel Jackson ($4,100) and TE Brevyn Spann-Ford ($3,700) at their pricing. The duo combined for 15 of the 21 targets last week vs. Rutgers, and now account for 43% of the team target share for the year.
Nebraska:
When your implied team total is lower than Colorado, that’s a problem. Full team fade here. Sounds like QB Casey Thompson ($6,400) will not play based on quotes made from the staff this week. WR Trey Palmer was targeted a single time last week in the loss to Illinois. And the Gophers have allowed the second fewest fantasy points in the country to opposing WR1s. Who is first? Illinois. Moving on.
North Carolina vs. Virginia
Point-Spread: UNC -7.5
O/U Total: 60.5
Implied Score: UNC 34 – UVA 26.5
Weather: 62 degrees / 57% rain / 5 mph winds
North Carolina:
Top Play(s) – QB Drake Maye ($8,200) Second-highest projected QB on the entire slate behind Bo Nix, yet inexplicably $1.4k cheaper than the Oregon gunslinger. I do agree that this is a trap spot for UNC with an early start, going on the road facing a bad UVA team with an important Wake Forest matchup on the horizon. But this price is too good for a QB in Maye who leads ALL of college fantasy football in points score this season.
Fade – RBs. Drake Maye is the rush offense at this point. Omarion Hampton ($5,700) is wayyyy too expensive for someone that appears to have hit the freshman wall with under 40 yards rushing in each of the last five games. He was losing his starting job essentially before Caleb Hood was lost for the year. HC Mack Brown was pleased with the performance of Elijah Green ($5,300) against Pittsburgh as he nearly quadrupled the amount of snaps Hampton saw, but he was ineffective too with just 18 yards on eight carries. Green was fourth on the depth chart to start the year.
Bargain Bin – WR J.J. Jones (4,400) Hit or miss WR3 that played 84% of snaps last week against Pittsburgh. The clear third option in the passing game right now is an explosive deep threat posting similar numbers to Antoine Green but without the production – averaging 21.1 YPC with an aDOT of 15.9.
Pivot Play – WR Josh Downs ($7,800) I can see a scenario where Antoine Green ($6,000) sees higher ownership here because of his 10-180-2 performance a week ago vs. Pittsburgh. Green has been exceptional since returning from injury with six touchdowns in five games, averaging a team-high 24.5 YPC. The problem there is that Virginia is one of the best in the country at limiting explosive plays (3rd) and have allowed just nine passing plays of 25 yards or more this season – 3rd best in ACC. I think Downs is targeted heavily this week.
Best of the Rest – n/a. Downs and Green account for 36% of the team’s total target share and had 28 of the 43 targets a week ago vs. Pittsburgh. Zero trust in anyone on the UNC offense besides the big three of Maye, Downs and Green.
Injury Notes – RB Caleb Hood ($3,000) Hood is out for the season with injury.
Virginia:
Top Play(s) – QB Brennan Armstrong ($7,100) I’d like to say the North Carolina defense is a cure for any ailing offense, but if you watched the UVA – Miami game, you’d realize there is no fixing this mess. Virginia is 94th in total offense, 117th in pass efficiency, 123rd in scoring and 120th in red-zone scoring. This should be a fireable offense what HC Tony Elliott and OC Des Kitchings have done to this group. ALL OF THAT SAID…this should be the matchup for a breakout Armstrong performance, facing a North Carolina defense that is giving up 32.8 FPPG to opposing QBs. Implied team total for UVA is well above their season long scoring average.
Fade – RBs No Perris Jones means were getting a three-way sprinkle of Mike Hollins, freshman Xavier Brown and former Indiana transfer Ronnie Walker. Six running backs have scored 20+ fantasy points against this UNC rush defense in 2022, as the Heels rank 103rd nationally against the run. Maybe an opportunity for one of the backs to breakout on Saturday, but if I were a betting man, I’d project Armstrong as the team’s leading rusher vs. UNC. And he’s looked like his 2021 self on the ground the last few weeks with over 150 yards on 33 attempts.
Bargain Bin – RB Xavier Brown ($3,200) With that said, maybe the 3-star freshman gets an extended look with Jones sidelined. Mike Hollins is listed ahead of Jones on the depth chart, but did not play last week. Brown, who was offered by Wisconsin, West Virginia and Maryland, has looked good when he’s seen extended work, including 89 yards on 10 attempts in Week 3 vs. Old Dominion. I’m not advocating this play, but UNC does allow 20.0 FPPG to opposing RB1s. We would need confirmation that Brown is the starter to even consider.
Pivot Play – WR Keytaon Thompson ($6,500) Probably won’t see much attention on a 14-game slate, but Thompson has been one of the most consistent fantasy options in the entire country this season. Double-digit fantasy points in all but two games, averaging 9.6 targets a game. Strangely has not had a receiving touchdown all year. Sounds about time.
Best of the Rest – WR Dontayvion Wicks ($5,900) Horrendous season from Wicks in 2022 with a 41.7 conversion rate and nine drops. Yet…he’s averaging nine targets a game which very few WRs on this slate can attest to and run the most routes this season of any Virginia pass-catcher.
Injury Notes – RB Perris Jones ($6,000) Not that you were going to play him, but Perris Jones is ruled out for Saturday.
Ohio State vs. Northwestern
Point-Spread: OSU -38.5
O/U Total: 55.5
Implied Score: OSU 47 – NW 8.5
Weather: 60 degrees / 57% rain / 30 mph winds
Ohio State:
Top Play(s) – RB TreVeyon Henderson ($6,400) I’ll admit…I think I’m going to ask some Ohio State folks how they believe this game shakes out because I’m purely speculating here. Miyan Williams should play but if he’s anything less than 100%, what is the point. Ohio State has been looking to get the running game on track for a few weeks now. What better way against the 109th ranked rush defense in the country that is allowing 21.5 FPPG to opposing RB1s.
Fade – QB C.J. Stroud ($9,100) I just don’t think it makes any sense spending up here at 38.5-point favorites + 30 MPH winds. That said, this is a defense that allowed 44 (!!!!) fantasy points to Graham Mertz and Stroud needs to keep pace in the Heisman race. I’ll have zero of Stroud this week.
Bargain Bin – WR Julian Fleming ($4,900) For an Ohio State player, this is a bargain pricing. Fleming plays just as many snaps as both Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka, and has found the end-zone in five of the six games played this season.
Pivot Play – See above on TreVeyon Henderson. Projections will suggest playing the Ohio State passing game in this matchup.
Best of the Rest – n/a. Ohio State has been on the main slate every week. We know the situations and the relevant players that could be of interest. We will suggest that this is not a week that you game-stack the Buckeyes’ passing game with three or more players that has been a GPP winner in week’s past. Probably not the best idea in 30+ winds.
Injury Notes – RB Miyan Williams ($7,000) If this were any other matchup, Miyan Williams would play. And he still might, because he looked to be full go in practice this week after hurting his wrist against Penn State. Will Ohio State need him? Nope.
Northwestern:
We have 14 games to write up and a Northwestern offense with the lowest implied total on the slate at 8.5. Nope.
Tulane vs. Tulsa
Point-Spread: Tul -7.5
O/U Total: 57.5
Implied Score: Tul 32.5 – Tulsa 25
Weather: 50 degrees / 0% rain / 10 mph winds
Tulane:
Top Play(s) – RB Tyjae Spears ($6,100) With all the talent at RB on the slate, Tyjae Spears will likely once again be overshadowed. And that would be a mistake given the matchup. Tulsa is dead last in the AAC in yards allowed on the ground, are allowing over 19 FPPG to opposing RB1s and 119th in rush play success rate. 23 or more fantasy points scored in four of the last five games for Spears.
Fade – WRs. Play em at your own peril. I don’t believe there is any reason to do a deep dive here. Leading receiver DeaJuan McDougle accounts for just 14% target share with five or more receivers catching 20 or more passes. Deuce Watts has scored a touchdown in each of the last four games, so there is that.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – QB Michael Pratt ($6,200) I suppose Spears would be the pivot play here as Pratt will probably see higher ownership on the main slate. Tulsa’s secondary actually grades out fairly well, ranking 18th in pass play success rate and allowing just 23.2 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. Here’s where Pratt can do some damage. Jaxson Dart – 118 yards on 13 carries vs. Tulsa. Rocky Lombardi – 6 rushing yards and a rushing TD vs. Tulsa. Andrew Peasley – 45 yards on 10 carries vs. Tulsa. Each of those QBs score 29 or more fantasy points against the Hurricane this season.
Best of the Rest – n/a
Injury Notes – n/a
Tulsa:
Top Play(s) – WR Keylon Stokes ($7,300) 100 or more receiving yards in all but two games this season, and is the team leader in targets (76), receptions (53) and touchdowns (5). Slight downgrade if Braxton ends up playing, but still the top play for the Hurricane. Tulane has allowed four receivers to top 20 fantasy points this season, and coincidentally, all four play in the slot. Guess where Stokes lines up 97% of the time?
Fade – QB Davis Brin ($6,200) Sounds like there is a chance that Brin does not even start on Saturday after taking a beating yet again last week vs. SMU. If he does play, we are likely to see backup Braylon Braxton ($5,400) get some run as he’s the heir apparent and has looked good in his brief time on the field, going 8-of-14 for 120 yards and a pair of touchdowns against SMU. Braxton also gives the offense a different dimension with his legs. I will likely just avoid the situation entirely on a 14-game main slate.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – WRs not named Keylon Stokes. The top four receivers of Stokes, JuanCarlos Santana, Isaiah Epps and Malachai Jones combine for 88% of the team’s targets this season. Nobody catches the football outside of this foursome. Gives us some clarity, but also confusion as to which option is the optimal choice (outside of Stokes).
Best of the Rest – RB Deneric Prince ($6,200) Prince has begun to ascend as the team’s RB1 the last month with 19 or more carries in three of the last four games. This is not the matchup to play Prince, though, against a Tulane run defense that is 15th in rush play success rate and giving up only 11.7 FPPG to opposing RB1s.
Injury Notes – Keep tabs on the QB situation.
Baylor vs. Oklahoma
Point-Spread: OU -3.5
O/U Total: 61.5
Implied Score: OU 32.5 – Bay 29
Weather: 63 degrees / 0% rain / 15 mph winds
Baylor:
Top Play(s) – RB Richard Reese ($6,000) Reese has been overlooked in GPPs the last few slates with the RB position being as loaded as it is. Don’t think that’ll be the case this weekend as we haven’t seen a dramatic price increase and is projected at over 22 fantasy points, facing an OU defense that is 107th in rush play success rate. I think the only “concern” here, if it really is even one, is the quote from Dave Aranda this week stating that they’ll “look to ease up” on Reese’s workload. Said the team will try to emphasize a run by committee approach with Qualan Jones ($3,400). Coach speak or the truth?
Fade – WR Monaray Baldwin ($6,700) Best suggestion is to fade the entire Baylor WR corps given that no wideout has more than 16% of the target share. We’re especially fading Baldwin here at his $6,700 price tag as we do not know if the sophomore receiver will even play on Saturday with Aranda saying he is working out this week to recover from his hamstring injury. Easy fade here unless he’s confirmed starting.
Bargain Bin – WR Hal Presley ($4,100) The former Auburn transfer has now scored a touchdown in two of the last three games, coming off a season-high nine targets in the win over Texas Tech last week. We’re hesitant to play any Baylor WR as noted above, but Presley is now leading the team in targets and second in receptions, touchdowns and aDOT (16.2) for the season.
Pivot Play – QB Blake Shapen ($6,100) We’re getting four touchdowns somehow from Baylor this week and the Bears are a 3.5-point dog on the road, so we figure they’ll have to throw it some on Saturday. Analytically, the Sooners’ pass defense is better than the run defense, ranking 84th in pass play success rate and 64th in explosiveness allowed. But we’ve also seen four quarterbacks now score 30 or more fantasy points this season vs. the Sooners with Max Duggan and Adrian Martinez hitting 50+. Don’t think Shapen has 50 fantasy points in his repertoire as a non-runner, but 30 is well within the range of potential outcomes here against this defense.
Best of the Rest – TE Ben Sims ($4,300) The senior tight end remains a key cog in the Baylor passing game, now first on the team in receptions (26), second in targets (34) and second in routes run. Low ceiling play, scoring single digits in the past four games. WR Gavin Holmes ($5,100) played just 43 of 91 offensive snaps against Tech last week as Baylor went to two-tight end sets frequently in run formations as they were leading much of the night. Still managed 5-77-0 on six targets and is the high-upside/low-floor play of the Baylor WRs.
Injury Notes – See above on Monaray Baldwin.
Oklahoma:
Top Play(s) – WR Marvin Mims ($6,900) In reality, nobody for Oklahoma projects well this week and could be a full-team fade despite being projected to score 32 points this week. Just feels time for a Marvin Mims blowup game, coming off one of his worst performances of the year last week against Iowa State with a pair of drops. Mims still leads the team by a comfy margin with 26% of the target share and No. 1 in routes run. This is a GPP only and should not be considered for cash. In looking at the numbers, Baylor has actually allowed over 20 FPPG to opposing WR1s this year. The top two – Chase Roberts and Ashtyn Hawkins – both scored over 30 fantasy points against the Bears.
Fade – WR Theo Wease ($6,300) I simply do not understand the infatuation between Wease and the DraftKings algorithms. It’s almost tilting to think about why in the hell Wease is priced this highly. Fourth in targets, fifth on the team in routes run and played all of 24 offensive snaps against Iowa State. It makes zero sense, and that’s why he’ll be a slate-breaker now (not really).
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – RB Eric Gray ($6,900) Because of his pricing and the surplus of RB options on the slate, Gray will see very little ownership on Saturday. Still managed a productive day against what was previously the best rush defense in the Big 12 last weekend with 101 yards and 21.5 fantasy points scored against Iowa State…all the while not being 100%. Another stiff challenge this week against the newly minted No. 1 rush defense in the conference, though OU’s offensive line is starting to road grade opponents, now 10th nationally in line yards created.
Best of the Rest – QB Dillon Gabriel ($7,800) Baylor is fourth in the Big 12 in pass defense and haven’t allowed more than a single passing touchdown in each of the last four games. Gabriel is only a game-stack option if you think this matchup gets into a shootout. I doubt it.
Injury Notes – RB Jovantae Barnes ($4,800) The 4-star freshman did not play last week and is deemed a game-time decision with a hamstring. Marcus Major would backup Gray if Barnes did not suit up.
Tennessee vs. Georgia
Point-Spread: UGA -8.5
O/U Total: 65.5
Implied Score: UGA 37 – Tenn 28.5
Weather: 79 degrees / 95% rain / 9 mph winds
Tennessee:
Top Play(s) – WR Jalin Hyatt ($7,100) Three options for me with the slate for Tennessee. 1) Stack the passing game, thinking it’s a high-scoring shootout. 2) Fade the team entirely as Georgia flexes its muscles as the reigning national champs. This probably makes the most sense as these are the lowest projected totals for Tennessee players we’ve seen all year. Or 3) roster just one of the wideouts knowing that the Vols will have to throw the ball. I’ll lean Hyatt here who’s arguably been Tennessee’s best player the last month with 11 (yes 11) receiving touchdowns in the last four games. Georgia is 71st in pass play explosiveness defensively, and that plays into Tennessee’s hands where Hyatt is 3rd in yards per reception.
Fade – RB Jabari Small ($6,300) Georgia is fourth nationally in run defense and allowing just 12.5 FPPG to opposing RB1s. If Tennessee wins this game, its through the air or forcing turnovers.
Bargain Bin – TE Princeton Fant ($3,800) Usage in the passing game is sporadic, but I bet you didn’t realize that Fant now has four rushing touchdowns in the last three games. Bet you also didn’t realize that Georgia has given up just two rushing touchdowns all year long, which is best in the country.
Pivot Play – WR Cedric Tillman ($6,100) We mentioned that Georgia is prone to giving up explosive plays in the passing game and no offense is better at creating them than Tennessee. Tillman wasn’t much of a factor against Kentucky last week coming back from injury, but he didn’t have to be in the blowout. I suspect the plan all along was to ramp him up for this matchup. Remember what happened last year? Blowout loss to UGA, but Tillman went for 10-200-1 against this secondary.
Best of the Rest – WR Bru McCoy ($5,800) I think McCoy is a *very* distant third option here behind Hyatt and Tillman, though he did see eight targets vs. UK last Saturday.
Injury Notes – n/a
Georgia:
Keeping this one short and sweet. TE Brock Bowers ($6,700) or bust. Fun stat – Tennessee is allowing 11.3 FPPG to opposing tight ends this season, the third highest-mark in the country. Four tight ends have scored double-digit fantasy points against the Vols in 2022. Really like Bowers in big-game settings, but roster construction gets tough with him in the lineup. Sounds like Kendall Milton could be back this week which means three-headed backfield against a top five run defense. No thank you. WRs don’t move the needle whatsoever, though if you want to throw a dart on Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint or Dillon Bell, they’re cheap enough to do so. In larger GPPs, I’d potentially look to pair Bowers with QB Stetson Bennett ($8,600) as that combination together will see very low ownership numbers. And where Tennessee is most vulnerable is defending the pass, ranking 77th in pass play success rate. ***If Kendall Milton does not play, that changes the dynamic here a bit.
Oregon vs. Colorado
Point-Spread: Oreg -31.5
O/U Total: 62.5
Implied Score: Oreg 47 – Col 15.5
Weather: 54 degrees / 4% rain / 4 mph winds
Oregon:
Top Play(s) – RB Noah Whittington ($4,200) I think I’m all the way in here as Whittington being one of the top plays of the slate. Colorado is allowing the most fantasy points to opposing RBs of any team in the entire country. The Buffs have allowed more rushing yards (1,898) and more rushing touchdowns (22) than any Power 5 football team in college football. Oregon conversely has the 11th most yards (1,886) and scored the 10th most touchdowns (23). Whittington will split with Bucky Irving, we already know this, but the price is just too good here. 66 or more yards in six straight games for the former Western Kentucky transfer.
Fade – WR Troy Franklin ($6,800) Hopefully this suggestion doesn’t come back to bite me. In Oregon’s biggest blowouts against FBS opponents this season, Franklin has gone for 3, 4, 3 and 3 receptions against BYU, Stanford, Arizona and Cal. This matchup figures to be in that same category.
Bargain Bin – RB Jordan James ($3,400) How about this for a segway. In half of the games I mentioned above, the 4-star freshman scored a rushing touchdown. Oregon is going to pile up the yards on the ground Saturday. James should be in the mix (this is still an extreme longshot play).
Pivot Play – QB Bo Nix ($9,600) I don’t think this play makes much sense given Nix’s price tag, but I said that last week and he was a GPP winner. Nix is our No. 1 projected player for the slate this week and in all of college fantasy football. The problem is that we need at least 40 points out of him to reach value. For as good as Nix has been, he’s only done that twice, and this game should be out of hand early.
Best of the Rest – RB Mar’Keise Irving ($5,800) Solely being fiscally responsible in saying that Whittington is the better play over Irving this week. That said, Irving still has a 51-39 advantage in rushing attempts during the month of November and is the starter. I would not play both, that’s for sure. Oregon spreads the ball around too much.
Injury Notes – WR Chase Cota ($5,000) The team’s second leading receiver is questionable entering Saturday with head coach Dan Lanning saying his status is “to be determined.” I’ll answer the question for you. He ain’t playing. Dont’e Thornton and Josh Delgado are expected to see their playing time increase as a result.
Colorado:
Turned out that the suggestion of WR Jordyn Tyson ($3,900) last week as a min-priced play was a great one as the freshman wideout went for 5-115-1 on 11 targets. 25 of Tyson’s 38 targets this season have come in the last three weeks. He’s the only potential option for the Buffs. Quick mention to RB Deion Smith ($3,600) who rushed for 111 yards on 24 attempts vs. Arizona State, but Oregon is a different animal on defense. 41st in rush play success rate and 28th nationally in rush defense. Likely not going there.
Oklahoma State vs. Kansas
Point-Spread: KU -1.5
O/U Total: 63.5
Implied Score: KU 32.25 – OK St 31
Weather: 53 degrees / 0% rain / 14 mph winds
Oklahoma State:
Free advertisement for the CFF Discord. If you’re playing on Saturday and planning to roster Oklahoma State players, you must be locked into the Discord with the Cowboys being a M.A.S.H unit right now. Spencer Sanders, Jaden Bray, Dominic Richardson, Braydon Johnson all questionable to doubtful to out. RB Jaden Nixon ($5,200) is too pricy for me, should D-Rich be out, on a team that is 100th in rush play success rate offensively. FWIW – Kansas is allowing 21.2 FPPG to opposing running backs this season, so there is a greater than zero chance Oklahoma State finds success on the ground Saturday. I’m avoiding the wide receivers completely if Spencer Sanders does not play. Because this (link) is who would be starting. WR Stephon Johnson ($3,700) is still relatively cheap for a receiver that had eight targets last week. WR Bryson Green ($5,600) has 18 targets the last two weeks and appears to have established himself as the WR1.
Kansas:
Top Play(s) – Starting Kansas QB. If we expect to see both, then this goes out the window. But if we get a confirmed starter, I’m interested in whoever that is between Jason Bean and Jalon Daniels. Here is the direct quote from the KU beat writer – “The information on this situation has been hard to come by since the bye week started. Right now, my feeling is that we’ll see Bean start the game for KU. I was told by someone close to the program this week to not jump to conclusion that Daniels will start.” Thank you Michael Swain, KU beat reporter for putting in work.
Fade – n/a. All the normal starters for KU are a realistic option this week.
Bargain Bin – WR Trevor Wilson ($3,000) Note – this is ONLY a possibility if Luke Grimm is listed out, and who knows if we find that news pregame. Wilson was a productive player in 2021 with 27 receptions on 46 targets but played his first game against Baylor in Week 8 after having some off-field issues during the offseason. Only played 18 snaps but had 52 yards on four targets. Want to reiterate this is an extreme longshot.
Pivot Play – WR Lawrence Arnold ($5,400) We normally have zero interest in Kansas receivers. But there are injuries to monitor with multiple starters (see below) being questionable. The top three of Arnold, Skinner and Grimm combine for over 55% of the team’s target share, with Arnold being second in targets (37) and receptions (25). Assume he would be the clear-cut WR1 should both Skinner and Grimm be out. WR1s are averaging 27.2 FPPG against Oklahoma State this season, third highest number in the country.
Best of the Rest – RB Devin Neal ($5,100) Doesn’t see the Jaret Patterson like volume we saw from the RB1 at Buffalo with Lance Leipold, only averaging 10.6 carries on the year. BUT, probably one of the higher floors on the slate of guaranteed double-digit points facing an Oklahoma State defense that is giving up 24.8 FPPG to opposing RB1s. My only hesitation is that the advanced data likes the Oklahoma State running game a bit more, where the Cowboys are 61st in rush play success rate. Mediocre, but not horrendous.
Injury Notes – See QBs above. WRs Quentin Skinner and Luke Grimm were described as limited per HC Lance Leipold.
Syracuse vs. Pittsburgh
Point-Spread: Pitt -3.5
O/U Total: 48.5
Implied Score: Pitt 26 – Syr 22.5
Weather: 73 degrees / 19% rain / 13 mph winds
Syracuse:
Top Play(s) – RB Sean Tucker ($6,700) Syracuse’s performance last week against Notre Dame at home was one of the worst I’ve seen from a P5 team all year. Nothing going on offense, getting gashed by an average Notre Dame team on the ground the entirety of the game. Just lifeless performance. For that reason, I’d probably expect a bounce back effort. With questions at QB as to who will start, heavy lean towards Tucker as the top play for the Orange. I’d probably side with a full-team fade, though, here. Pitt is balanced all around defensively with no distinct weaknesses. The Panthers are allowing just 12.8 FPPG to opposing RB1s on the year.
Fade – Everyone beyond the top three. Between Tucker, Oronde Gadsden and Garrett Shrader, the trio combines for around 72% of Syracuse’s offensive production in 2022. There is nobody else of interest unless we get news that Shrader is out.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – QB Garrett Shrader ($5,900) From reading between the lines of Dino Babers quotes, it sounds as though taking Shrader out of the game was more precautionary as Notre Dame was up big and the QB1 had one of his worst performances of the season. I’m probably not going here, but you do have a mobile QB who is cheap. We’ve seen five different QBs this season score 25 or more points against Pitt this season, three of which in Drake Maye, Malik Cunningham and Jeff Sims rushed for 40 or more yards on the ground. 22.8-point projection for a $5.9k QB would normally be an auto-play in most situations.
Best of the Rest – WR Oronde Gadsden ($6,300) Incredibly consistent with 60 of more receiving yards in each of the last six games, averaging eight targets a game in that span. 26% of the total team target share.
Injury Notes – Stayed tuned at QB for breaking news with Garrett Shrader.
Pitt:
This is not a situation like last week where you could make arguments for the multiple components of the Pitt offense against a horrendous UNC defense. Only one player is projected to score more than 12 fantasy points this week and that’s star RB Israel Abanikanda ($7,700) who is now averaging 30.3 rushing attempts over the last three weeks. As far as spending up to play him, I would’ve said no up until last week. But the Syracuse defense was absolutely gashed by multiple Notre Dame running backs for over 240 yards as a team. RB1s are now averaging 17.7 FPPG against the Orange, and their run defense is fading as the season starts to wind down.
Penn State vs. Indiana
Point-Spread: PSU -13.5
O/U Total: 549.5
Implied Score: PSU 31.5 – IU 18
Weather: 60 degrees / 38% rain / 15 mph winds
Penn State:
Top Play(s) – WR Parker Washington ($6,400) Folks are going to be on the Penn State running backs this week (and rightfully so as a two-touchdown favorite). But looking at the advanced data, you beat this Indiana offensive via the pass. And there shouldn’t be much of a downgrade if they turn to Drew Allar either at some point. 121st in pass play success rate and allowing 24.2 FPPG to opposing WR1s this season, tied for eighth most in the country. Washington is another DFS play that I’ve never correctly predicted since he’s been in college, but the numbers say he should have a productive week.
Fade – QB Sean Clifford ($7,000) When, not if, at this point with the quarterback situation as this is a prime opportunity to get 5-star freshman Drew Allar live game bullets. We can’t realistically play any quarterback in that scenario. Beat writers are already predicting this happens on Saturday.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – RBs. Nick Singleton. Kaytron Allen. Both are reasonably priced and should continue to get more looks as a two-touchdown favorite. I think these plays could potentially be popular on Saturday, but I have my concerns. For one, it’s a near 50-50 split. Two, while 11th in the Big Ten in yards allowed on the ground, the Hoosiers are 21st in rush play success rate defensively. Indiana held Michigan to its lowest output of the season on the ground earlier in the year.
Best of the Rest – WR Mitchell Tinsley ($6,000) The former Western Kentucky transfer is on the field nearly the entire game, but that’s about as far as it goes with the arguments in favor of rostering Tinsley. Has not had a performance over 60 yards receiving since the opening week of the season. Averaging 6.3 targets per game.
Injury Notes – n/a
Indiana:
Interesting coaching quotes this week where HC Tom Allen stated they’re evaluating every single position offensively, including quarterback. We might see a switch here with Connor Bazelak finally getting the hook. Does Jack Tuttle start? Do we get a look at the freshman Dexter Williams (hopefully) with the season being a lost cause? Complete avoid there. All of the skill position players are in the mid-salary range unfortunately where we just can’t trust anyone here. Emery Simmons ($5,600) looks to be the new WR1 here with Cam Camper out for the year, but you’re not spending up to that with the QB questions.
UCF vs. Memphis
Point-Spread: UCF -3.5
O/U Total: 58.5
Implied Score: UCF 31 – Mem 27.5
Weather: 70 degrees / 5% rain / 9 mph winds
UCF:
Top Play(s) – RB RJ Harvey ($4,800) I’ll preface by saying I do not know the exact answer to this question, but who is the true RB1 for UCF these days? We’ll want to find out, particularly if John Rhys Plumlee does not play because the Knights became a run-based offense against Cincinnati last week, running it 52 times. And in that game, RJ Harvey out-carried Isaiah Bowser 17-11, rushing for 84 yards and two score. Harvey’s been trending upwards for weeks now, averaging over seven yards a carry. UCF should have the big advantage in the trenches, ranked 27th in line yards and 14th in rush play success rate.
Fade – RB Isaiah Bowser ($6,100) If you play CFF, you’re plenty aware of the backfield situation as Harvey has been on our waiver wire reports for a few weeks now. Do DFS players know that situation? Unsure, but Bowser technically is still the RB1 here and would trot out with the starters on the first series. Six touchdowns in the last four games for Bowser, though the carry distribution is evolving with each passing week. First four games of the year Bowser averaged 17.2 carries per. Last four? 12.3 attempts per.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – QB John Rhys Plumlee ($8,300) Even if announced as the starter, I don’t have the kahunas to play JRP this week. I’m sure many will feel the same, and his 20-point projection doesn’t exude much confidence. That said, Memphis is dead last in the AAC in pass defense, rank 103rd in pass play success rate and give up 29.4 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. Matchup is there for JRP to have a great week if healthy. QB Mikey Keene likely gets the nod if JRP sits.
Best of the Rest – With everyone at 100%, we saw the true WR rotation last week for UCF with Ryan O’Keefe ($6,600), Kobe Hudson ($6,100) and Javon Baker ($6,000) all play 69% or more of the offensive snaps vs. Cincinnati. This should be set and store for the remainder of the year.
Injury Notes – Keep tabs on the QBs.
Memphis:
Top Play(s) – QB Seth Henigan ($6,400) I hate this Memphis offense under this current regime, but Henigan is cheap enough to where we have to consider at his 25-point projection. The Tigers are 21st nationally in pace and 42nd in pass attempts per game (34.9). Henigan is averaging 30 fantasy points over the last two games and UCF’s secondary is the weakness of the defense, ranking 103rd in pass play success rate. I think we have a high-floor play here.
Fade – RBs. The days of Kenneth Gainwell and Darrell Henderson are a thing of the past. This backfield is a complete mess and Memphis won’t be able to run on UCF anyways.
Bargain Bin – WR Joe Scates ($3,000) The Iowa State transfer has essentially been getting starting reps the last month with 18 of his 24 targets coming in that span. Scates is the fastest wide receiver on the team and Memphis’ deep threat with an aDOT of 21.8 yards.
Pivot Play – n/a. Don’t start any of the mid-priced wide receiver. No wideout has more than 17% of the target share. You’re better of rolling out Henigan naked in a lineup as he spreads it around.
Best of the Rest – TE Caden Prieskorn ($5,900) Arguably Memphis’ most consistent offensive performer in 2022, sitting first on the team in touchdowns (6) and routes run, while second in targets (43). Had a string of five straight games of scoring at least one TD from Week’s 2-6.
Injury Notes – n/a
