Texas vs. Kansas State
Point-Spread: Tex -2.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Implied Score: Tex 28.5 – KSU 26
Weather: 52 degrees / 0% rain / 11 mph winds
Texas:
Top Play(s) – WR Xavier Worthy ($6,400) Lofty projection for Xavier Worthy this week which has me a little surprised considering Kansas State has been solid against the pass this season, ranking 15th in pass play success rate. The Wildcats are prone to the big play, though, ranking 105th in explosiveness with 41 pass plays allowed of 15 yards or more. Only reason Worthy didn’t hit value against Oklahoma State is because Quinn Ewers couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn. 24 targets for the WR1 in the last two weeks.
Fade – RB Roschon Johnson ($5,500) I feel like I’m disrespecting Johnson each time Texas is on the slate because he’s our top fade candidate, but you can’t play a backup RB at $5.5k unless a blowout scenario. And this is not that. Should be Texas’ RB1 in 2023, though. See we can say nice things about him.
Bargain Bin – TE Ja’Tavion Sanders ($3,600) Same play each time here with Sanders as the best value play until they raise his pricing. Second on the team in targets (43) and tops in offensive snaps played among any Texas offensive skill position player. Kansas State has had some trouble stopping opposing tight ends this season, allowing 21 fantasy points to Brayden Willis and 18 fantasy points to Jared Wiley.
Pivot Play – RB Bijan Robinson ($8,900) How did we make it this far in the Texas writeup without mentioning the name Bijan. Decision comes down to whether or not we spend up to his price tag against a Kansas State defense that has allowed just two running backs to score more than 10 fantasy points against them all year long. I do like some of the quotes coming from HC Steve Sarkisian during the bye week, stating that he ignored his best player late in the loss to Oklahoma State two weeks ago. Those quotes usually mean said player is about to be featured heavily this week. Bijan has the safest floor for fantasy production of any player in college football.
Best of the Rest – QB Quinn Ewers ($6,200) UGLY performance against one of the worst defenses in college football in Oklahoma State where Ewers completed just 39% of his throws with three interceptions. Sarkisian did say that Ewers was sharp in practice during the bye week, but not sure I trust him on the road against one of the better secondaries in the Big 12. WR Jordan Whittington ($5,300) is a high floor / low upside play that is third on the team in targets (39) and receptions (29), while first in routes run. FWIW – the two highest scoring outputs from opposing WRs against Kansas State this season came from slot receivers. That’s Whittington.
Injury Notes – n/a
Kansas State:
What a dilemma HC Chris Klieman has on his hands Saturday. Sounds like Adrian Martinez ($8,100) will be healthy enough to start. But how do you sit a guy in Will Howard ($6,400) who threw four touchdowns in a half last week against Oklahoma State? We have Howard projected for now, but we won’t know for sure until Saturday afternoon. RB Deuce Vaughn ($7,100) Texas grades out well against the run this season, ranking 10th in rush play success rate and giving up just 14.8 FPPG to opposing running backs. This Kansas State rushing attack is a different animal. Whichever QB ends up starting I think will be the determining factor for how much interest we have here. Projects around 25 points with Will Howard as the starter. That drops to around 20-ish points if Martinez is back in the lineup. Stay tuned. When is the last time we had three Kansas State wide receivers projected at double-digit fantasy points? Malik Knowles ($4,800), Kade Warner ($4,000) and Phillip Brooks ($5,000) are in play with their mid-tier price tags, but our interest is dependent on the QB decision, much like Vaughn. Downgraded if Martinez is the starter.
BYU vs. Boise State
Point-Spread: BSU -7.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Implied Score: BSU 31 – BYU 23.5
Weather: 41 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
BYU:
Top Play(s) – WR Puka Nacua ($6,300) Pretty much a lock on any slate that Nacua is included on moving forward. Three receiving touchdowns in the last three weeks with 22 of his 26 receptions coming in that span. The defensive stats on paper are incredible for Boise, though. Fourth fewest FPPG allowed to opposing WR1s in the country and No. 1 in pass play success rate defensively.
Fade – RB Lopini Katoa ($5,400) Katoa had a season-high 116 yards on 20 carries last week against a better than average ECU run defense. Boise State’s run defense is substantially better, ranked 38th in rush play success rate and allowing the second fewest FPPG in the country to opposing RB1s, ahead of only Michigan. BYU’s offense line isn’t good enough to create holes against this defense.
Bargain Bin – WR Brayden Cosper ($3,800) We’ll see on Gunner Romney if he plays or not, but feels like a safe bet to assume he’s out given his prior injury history. With that being the case, BYU’s WR rotation has shortened with Nacua, Cosper and Keanu Hill all playing 68% or more of the offensive snaps against ECU last week. Cosper converted on all four of his targets.
Pivot Play – QB Jaren Hall ($8,200) Hall is probably much closer to a fade than a pivot play this week at his pricing. Not only a bad matchup against this Boise State secondary that we alluded to above, but there were questions last week of whether Hall was even healthy enough to play against ECU. He did, but it was clear the game plan of trying to establish the run which had not been the case all year for BYU. Was that because Hall was dinged up.
Best of the Rest – n/a
Injury Notes – WR Kody Epps ($4,000) is out for the season. RB Chris Brooks ($6,300) is day to day with a shoulder injury. HC Kilani Sitake said this week that “it’s not a season ender” which makes me think Brooks is out this week.
Boise State:
Top Play(s) – RB George Holani ($7,300) Holani has to be foaming at the mouth looking at this BYU defense. Arkansas, Liberty and East Carolina all averaged over six yards a carry as a team against the Cougars the last three weeks. Boise State is averaging 239 yards per game on the ground since making the change at offensive coordinator with Holani spearheading the attack.
Fade – WR Latrell Caples ($6,000) Boise State receivers are not a complete fade like they were earlier in the year, but this is way too expensive here for a WR that has not topped 50 yards in a game all season long. aDOT of just 6.9 yards on the season and 1.28 yards per route run.
Bargain Bin – WR Eric McAlister ($3,000) Too risky to play on a 9-game slate, but Boise State loves the leaping ability of this 6-foot-3 sophomore. Saw a season-high 22 offensive snaps last week in the blowout of Colorado State, finishing with four targets. I think this is a name you’ll hear down the line at some point.
Pivot Play – QB Taylen Green ($6,300) Green’s confidence is growing with every passing week as he threw for 300+ yards with three total touchdowns in the win over Colorado State. Giving up 40+ fantasy points to Bo Nix and KJ Jefferson can at least be rationalized but listen to this in regard to the BYU defense. Drew Pyne – 30.6 fantasy points. Cooper Legas – 29.6 fantasy points. Johnathan Bennett – 27.9 fantasy points. Those are awful quarterbacks just shredding this BYU secondary. I really like Green here in my Sflex spot.
Best of the Rest – WR Stefan Cobbs ($6,300) Big news in the college fantasy realm this week that Cobbs will return for his extra year of eligibility in 2023. With Green’s emergence as a passer, Cobbs is of more interest to us as he had a season-high 91 yards on six targets vs. Colorado State last week. Team leader in targets (47) for the year and we’ve seen his field-stretching ability the last two games with an aDOT over 17.0. Backup RB Ashton Jeanty ($4,500) is going to be a superstar when Holani exhausts his eligiblilty. Five rushing touchdowns in the last four weeks.
Injury Notes – n/a
Alabama vs. LSU
Point-Spread: Bama -13.5
O/U Total: 56.5
Implied Score: Bama 35 – LSU 21.5
Weather: 65 degrees / 71% rain / 2 mph winds
Alabama:
Top Play(s) – RB Jahmyr Gibbs ($8,300) This has the feel of a Gibbs-type game with rain in the forecast and Alabama taking the bye week to work on the running game after a dismal performance vs. Mississippi State in Week 8. LSU is middle of the pack, allowing 15.6 FPPG to opposing RB1s but 80th in rush play success rate. The Tigers are far better against the pass defensively.
Fade – WR Traeshon Holden ($6,100) Posted in the CFFSite Discord in the Alabama channel was a cryptic tweet from Holden that seemed to have indicated a potential injury. Even fully healthy, Holden appears to have fallen out of favor with six targets in the last three games.
Bargain Bin – WR Tyler Harrell ($3,900) Played just six snaps against Mississippi State, but Nick Saban said they ramped up his reps during the bye week. His speed can be a game-changer for this offense and will be at some point in the year. Is it Saturday? The Tigers are 119th in explosiveness allowed via the pass in 2022, giving up 29 passing plays of 20 yards or more. That intrigues me with regards to Harrell.
Pivot Play – QB Bryce Young ($9,000) A 26-point projection at $9k probably means Young won’t see much ownership and this appears to be a slate where you can punt the quarterback. LSU has been just ok defending the pass, allowing just 21.5 FPPG against opposing QBs and 24th in pass play success rate, but are 91st in PFF coverage. I do like the setup here with Alabama coming off their bye week and Young having his full complement of WRs available for Saturday.
Best of the Rest – WR JaCorey Brooks ($6,000) Brooks is the only trustworthy option in the passing game for Bama, with double digit fantasy points scored in four of his last five games played. And his time on the field has been increasing with every passing week. Now healthy, sophomore WR JoJo Earle ($4,300) out-snapped Kobe Prentice in the slot vs. Mississippi State by a healthy margin, finishing with 3-38-1 on four targets.
Injury Notes – n/a
LSU:
Top Play(s) – QB Jayden Daniels ($7,900) I probably won’t have much exposure to Daniels on Saturday, unless I’m stacking with Bryce Young with the prediction that this game shoots out. Daniels has been one of the best quarterbacks in the country the last three weeks with back to -back 50-point fantasy performances, completing over 70% of his passes in every game during that stretch. Here comes the Alabama defense, though, with two weeks to prepare. The Tide are 15th in pass play explosiveness, 13th in pass play success rate and giving up just 15.9 FPPG to opposing QBs. I’ll reiterate that I’m only playing Daniels with Bryce Young in a game stack.
Fade – RB Josh Williams ($3,500) John Emery will be back in the lineup Friday, but I don’t think he’ll replace Williams in the starting lineup with what he’s done the last month with double digit carries in three of the last four games. Cheap pricing for a starting running back, but LSU’s running game has been far too inconsistent to play him against this front. The Tide are allowing just 12.1 FPPG to opposing RB1s and this backfield could get messy with three RBs sharing carries along with Daniels.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – WRs. A bit of a jumbled mess with the LSU wide receivers. Kayshon Boutte ($5,100) and Malik Nabers ($5,700) have distinguished themselves as the top target-getters with 36% target share, but eight of the team’s 13 receiving touchdowns belong to Brian Thomas ($3,600) and Jaray Jenkins ($4,700). I’ll typically lean towards the players that see the field the most in situations like this (Nabers/Boutte), but all four are reasonably priced.
Best of the Rest – n/a
Injury Notes – WR Jack Bech ($3,400) and RB John Emery ($5,000) have practiced this week and are expected to play.
Auburn vs. Mississippi State
Point-Spread: Miss St -12.5
O/U Total: 50.5
Implied Score: Miss St 31.5 – Aub 19
Weather: 63 degrees / 67% rain / 5 mph winds
Auburn:
Vegas doesn’t seem to think that the firing of HC Bryan Harsin will provide the Tigers with a confidence boost to pull the upset in Starkville, but interim coaches have had a ton of success around college football this season in the first game post-firing. I have no idea how to read this one from an Auburn perspective, though, as they’re hitting the road, facing a Mississippi State team coming off a bye and angry after their worst performance of the year. Just two Auburn players projected to score double-digit fantasy points this week in QB Robby Ashford ($5,100) and RB Tank Bigsby ($5,600) who combined for 487 yards last week in the loss to Arkansas. Can they replicate those numbers against MSU? Bigsby should have a chance facing a Bulldogs defense that is 73rd in rush play success rate and allowing 18.3 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Miss St. is 30th in both PFF coverage grades and pass play success rate so I don’t see Auburn doing much through the air on Saturday. Maybe interim HC and former Auburn great Cadillac Williams gets back to his roots and has the Tigers run the hell outta the ball and play keep away.
Mississippi State:
Top Play(s) – QB Will Rogers ($7,600) Debating whether to roster Rogers or not this week. 67% rain in the forecast. Auburn defensively is best at defending the pass, allowing just 22.4 FPPG to opposing QBs where the only players to score more than that mark against the Tigers this season were Jaxson Dart and KJ Jefferson who did damage with their legs. Rogers won’t do that. Also tough to forget Rogers’ performance against Auburn a year ago, completing 44-of-55 passes for 415 yards and six touchdowns.
Fade – WRs. Nobody in the regular rotation is dirt cheap to where we could consider them, and Rufus Harvey leads the team with just 13% target share. There is no Makai Polk for MSU in 2022.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – RB Jo’Quavious Marks ($5,200) Marks projects very well this week and I’m trying to understand why. Mississippi State made a concerted effort to establish the run against Alabama two weeks ago and Marks has scored double-digit fantasy points in every game played this season. Auburn is weakest defending the run, ranking 115th in rush play success rate and giving up 20.2 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season. Still, this is a 50-50 split when Dillon Johnson is active which he should be on Saturday evening. High floor / Low upside play.
Best of the Rest – WR Caleb Ducking ($5,700) Our fearless leader Joe made an astute point to me earlier in the week. While his production has been down the last few games, Ducking has scored a touchdown in every single Mississippi State home game in 2022. Looking back at the game logs, Ducking is still playing the majority of offensive snaps, despite us seeing more MSU receivers getting involved in the rotation. If playing Rogers, you do not have to pair him with a WR as noted above.
Injury Notes – RB Dillon Johnson ($5,800) is expected to be available tonight per the Mississippi State 247 beat writer. That significantly downgrades RB Simeon Price ($3,700) if you were thinking of playing him.
Arizona vs. Utah
Point-Spread: Utah -17.5
O/U Total: 67.5
Implied Score: Utah 42.5 – AZ 25
Weather: 42 degrees / 100% rain / 11 mph winds
Arizona:
Top Play(s) – QB Jayden de Laura ($7,700) JDL is going to need to be careful in this type of game setting. Rain and wind are expected Saturday night and the Utah defense is second in the Pac-12 in interceptions. That said, game script sets up favorably here with de Laura now 4th in the country in yards per game (331.8) and 11th in pass attempts (39.8). If the weather clears up, our interest in JDL increases.
Fade – RB Michael Wiley ($5,400) Utah is allowing just 12.3 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season and with Arizona being a 17-point underdog, they’re going to need to throw as much as they normally do. The one argument in favor of Wiley is his usage in the passing game with 20 receptions on 27 targets. 10+ points is not out of the realm of possibilities because of that.
Bargain Bin – TE Tanner McLachlan ($3,400) The junior tight end has 25 receptions on the season, which is the fifth most in program history. Averages 4.5 targets per game as the fourth option.
Pivot Play – WR Jacob Cowing ($8,000) Arizona is going to throw rain, wind or shine. With inclement weather, I would expect Cowing to be the top target for Saturday in the short to intermediate area with his 9.4 aDOT. Averages 10.6 targets per game, though he hasn’t found the end-zone in the last three weeks after starting out the year with a touchdown in five straight games.
Best of the Rest – Between Cowing, McLachlan, Dorian Singer ($6,800) and Tetairoa McMillan ($5,500), the foursome combines for 80% of the team’s total target share. Nobody else catches passes here so they’re all viable if the weather holds up. Could also be a full-team fade in a torrential downpour so we’ll have to decide at kickoff how to play Arizona tonight.
Injury Notes – n/a
Utah:
Top Play(s) – QB Cam Rising ($9,100) Highest projected quarterback on the slate. All we need to know is if Rising is playing or not. And based on last week, we won’t know until he takes the first snap under center. Rising not playing last week wasn’t the most tilting aspect of this for me. It was seeing Utah beat writers all over Twitter being fanboys of the team rather than reporting on significant news. YOU HAVE ONE JOB. Thank you for my very brief Ted talk. FWIW – sounds like Rising is trending towards playing, but who the hell knows at this point with Kyle Whittingham’s secrecy.
Fade – RB Tavion Thomas ($7,800) No updates to share here. We have a small projection on Thomas just in case he was surprisingly available, but this feels like a situation where Thomas ends up transferring or not suiting up the rest of the year. Thomas wasn’t effective even when healthy and playing.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – RB Jaylon Glover ($5,300) Not that we were going to get anything of substance from Utah beat writers this week – see above – but I’m shocked that there wasn’t a vote of confidence in 4-star freshman Jaylon Glover after handling the bulk of the carries against Washington State last week. Even with Bernard back healthy, it’s time to turn this backfield over to the future. Arizona is one of the worst rush defenses in the country, ranking 126th in success rate, 130th in explosiveness and allowing over 20 FPPG to opposing RB1s.
Best of the Rest – WR Devaughn Vele ($7,400) Last man standing essentially. If you take out the three injured players in Dalton Kincaid, Micah Bernard and Brant Kuithe, Vele would then account for 42% of the team’s target share. I literally have zero clue who else is catching passes if both Bernard and Kincaid are out on Saturday.
Injury Notes – In addition to Rising, TE Dalton Kincaid ($6,600) suffered a shoulder injury in the third quarter vs. Washington State and was seen emerging from the injury tent in a sling. TBD on his status. RB Micah Bernard ($6,600) will suit up and warmup as he did a week ago, but who knows if he ends up playing.
Clemson vs. Notre Dame
Point-Spread: Clem -3.5
O/U Total: 43.5
Implied Score: Clem 23.5 – ND 20
Weather: 48 degrees / 48% rain / 17 mph winds
Clemson:
Top Play(s) – RB Will Shipley ($6,800) Shipley has been exceptional the last two games with over 100 yards rushing against two pretty good ACC run defenses statistically in Syracuse and Florida State. Love his usage in the passing game as well with nine targets in that span.
Fade – QB D.J. Uiagalelei ($7,200) DJU is starting Saturday and sounds confident heading into this matchup, and why not considering he threw for 400+ yards the last time he played in South Bend. We’re not so confident here with rain and wind in the forecast, facing a Notre Dame defense trending upward the last month or so, particularly against the pass. The Irish have allowed just four passing touchdowns in the last four games. ND is 10th in pass play success rate. And we haven’t even mentioned that there’s the possibility we see Cade Klubnik at some point.
Bargain Bin – TE Davis Allen ($3,600) Maybe it’s the fact that the Notre Dame defense practices against Michael Mayer each week, but the Irish have been outstanding vs. opposing tight ends this season, allowing just 3.7 FPPG. No tight end has scored double digit fantasy points against the Irish to date.
Pivot Play – WRs. Someone has to step up and be a reliable presence for DJU if the Tigers are to win this game comfortably. Slot-man Antonio Williams ($5,200) is the best WR on the team right now with six targets in three of the last four games but is priced at a point where we cannot consider him, scoring double-digit fantasy points twice all season. No Clemson wideout has more than 15% target share for the year. I will say this feels like a game maybe that WR Beaux Collins ($5,400) could make a big play as he’ll see single coverage. Team leader in touchdowns (5) and a 16.1 YPC average. Two targets and zero catches in the last two games doesn’t exude much confidence but he played 71 of 88 offensive snaps vs. Syracuse.
Best of the Rest – n/a
Injury Notes – n/a
Notre Dame:
Top Play(s) – TE Michael Mayer ($6,500) We’ve covered ND enough in DFS this year to know who the top option for the Irish is. BUT, we’re finally seeing his pricing juiced up in the $6k range where it should have been all year long. And now, this is an opportunity to actually get some leverage against the field as Mayer will probably be ignored as a result of the price increase. 36% target share is one of the highest numbers in the country, and Mayer is doing that as a tight end.
Fade – QB Drew Pyne ($5,700) Not a chance.
Bargain Bin – RB Logan Diggs ($4,000) Can Notre Dame run on Clemson will determine the outcome of this game. Initial impression would be no, but this Notre Dame offensive line is trending upwards into one of the best groups in the country. The Irish are now 15th in line yards and 28th in rush play success rate. This upward trajectory is also occurring in conjunction with the emergence of a healthy Logan Diggs who has carried the ball 48 times in the last two weeks.
Pivot Play – RB Audric Estime ($5,000) Credit to Estime who put the fumbling issues aside to have his best game of the season, rushing for 123 yards and two scores against the Orange. Same argument here as it is for Diggs. Can the Irish continue their upward trajectory on the ground against one of the best defenses in the country who will assuredly load the box.
Best of the Rest – n/a
Injury Notes – n/a
Florida State vs. Miami
Point-Spread: FSU -7.5
O/U Total: 53.5
Implied Score: FSU 30.5 – Mia 23
Weather: 78 degrees / 95% rain / 5 mph winds
Florida State:
Top Play(s) – QB Jordan Travis ($8,000) The FSU backfield is back to being a jumbled mess and we’re rarely investing in Seminole receivers, so it all reverts back to the man under center. 20 or more fantasy points in each of the last five games for Travis, facing a Miami secondary that gives up chunk plays nearly every week. 26.7 FPPG allowed to opposing QB1s this season for the Hurricanes.
Fade – RB Lawrance Toafili ($4,700) Projections need to be updated on the site (as of early this morning) with the news that Treshaun Ward will play on Saturday. Toafili did score twice in the win last week vs. Georgia Tech but fumbled twice in the process. With Ward healthy earlier in the year, Toafili averaged just 6.6 rushing attempts per game. Hopefully we can get some clarity as to how healthy Ward is leading up to game time.
Bargain Bin – WR Ja’khi Douglas ($3,000) Won’t play Douglas as he is the backup to Mycah Pittman in the slot, but he has scored in both of the game played this season, including a four receptions on five targets in the win over Georgia Tech.
Pivot Play – WR Johnny Wilson ($6,200) This matchup sets up perfectly for Wilson. Miami is 88th in completions of 20+ yards allowed, 105th in completions of 30+ yards, 122nd in completions of 40+ yards, 128th in completions of 50+ yards and 130th in completions of 60+ yards (via 247Sports). Wilson leads the team in receptions, targets, and touchdowns with one of the highest YPC (20.1) and aDOT (15.0) on the team. Numbers-wise, Wilson should be a matchup nightmare for this secondary.
Best of the Rest – WR Mycah Pittman ($4,700) Second on team in targets (37) receptions (25), touchdowns (3) and routes run. Production isn’t always there but Pittman is the only trusted receiving option for FSU beyond Wilson.
Injury Notes – Keep tabs on the RBs if we get any surprising news with Ward, though he is expected to play.
Miami:
Top Play(s) – WR Colbie Young ($3,000) Will see the highest ownership on the slate, but for good reason. The 6-foot-4 JUCO transfer is averaging 9.6 targets per game over the last three weeks since being instituted into the starting lineup with two 100-yard receiving performances in that stretch.
Fade – QB situation. Sounds like Tyler Van Dyke ($5,500) has gone from doubtful earlier in the week to now being probable. We’re off this situation entirely as the Miami passing game hasn’t been good enough all year to stress over this.
Bargain Bin – TE Will Mallory ($3,300) The senior tight end has been Miami’s most consistent offensive player for the last six weeks. First on the team in targets (42), receptions (28) and routes run.
Pivot Play – RB Henry Parrish ($5,400) Biggest pivot opportunity on the slate with everyone’s focus on Colbie Young as the freeroll min-priced play. And that’s not to say you can’t play both players in a lineup either, just suggesting that Parrish will be completely ignored on the slate. FSU is the heavy favorite, but if Miami is to pull the upset, they MUST run the football with some semblance of success. Parrish saw 25 of the team’s 34 carries last week in the win over Virginia last week. Can Miami run on FSU? The Seminoles are just 79th in rush play success rate defensively so the initial lean is yes but have allowed just 14 FPPG to opposing RB1s on the year.
Best of the Rest – n/a. Parrish, Young and Mallory are the only players of interest to us on the Miami side.
Injury Notes – Keep tabs on the QB situation that has fluctuated throughout the week.
Michigan vs. Rutgers
Point-Spread: UM -25.5
O/U Total: 44.5
Implied Score: UM 35 – Rut 9.5
Weather: 67 degrees / 0% rain / 9 mph winds
Michigan:
Top Play(s) – RB Blake Corum ($7,700) Don’t think this one needs to be discussed any further. Corum is squarely in the Heisman conversation, and the Rutgers defense has been thrashed by Tier 1 college football running backs like Corum. Miyan Williams and Mo Ibrahim combined for 85 fantasy points between them against the Rutgers defense.
Fade – WR Cornelius Johnson ($3,800) Too many costly mistakes every week. The Michigan coaching staff commented that they’re going to increase the game reps for sophomore Andrel Anthony ($3,100) this week which downgrades Johnson’s value.
Bargain Bin – TE Luke Schoonmaker ($3,900) Aside from the one Penn State game in which Michigan didn’t have to throw the football, Schoonmaker has been the Wolverines’ most consistent playmaker in the passing game. 25 of his 28 receptions have come in the last five games.
Pivot Play – QB J.J. McCarthy ($6,000) Quick recruiting story time. Michigan is in on a 5-star QB in the 2024 class, battling Tennessee as the primary competition. The hiccup as to why this quarterback hasn’t committed to the Wolverines yet? He wants to see more from the passing offense and what his future could potentially look like in this scheme. With the Wolverines a heavy favorite, does Harbaugh loosen the reins a bit with his current 5-star in McCarthy?
Best of the Rest – WR Ronnie Bell ($5,900) Bell has been very quiet the previous two games, but still the far and away leader with 26% total target share. RB Donovan Edwards ($5,400) provides a decent floor with his usage, likely getting 12-15 touches, but has really only exploded in one game this season that reached/surpassed value. Probably not starting him unless in a large GPP.
Injury Notes – n/a
Rutgers:
WR Sean Ryan ($4,100) is the highest projected Rutgers player this week at a whopping 10.1 fantasy points. Which, now that I think about it, isn’t bad for a $4.1k player. But please don’t do it. The only way Rutgers keeps this game relatively close is if Michigan is still distracted by the tunnel incident last week vs. Michigan State.
Wake Forest vs. North Carolina State
Point-Spread: WF -3.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Implied Score: WF 29 – NC St 25.5
Weather: 68 degrees / 10% rain / 10 mph winds
Wake Forest:
We’re cheating with this game because the CFF Site has now covered every single slate from Tuesday until Saturday night this week and I’m done writing. Not to mention Wake Forest has been on the slate every week this year in DFS so we know the situation. This is QB Sam Hartman’s ($8,800) lowest projection of the season so he’s likely a fade, facing this NC State defense that is 5th in pass play success rate. Although when you give up 30+ fantasy points to both DJU and Grant Wells, there is an opportunity here for Hartman to have some success in a rebound performance.
Wake Forest RBs should be complete fade going against the best LB corps in the ACC, but we’re reading beat writers suggesting Justice Ellison ($6,200) will have a big day running the football to take pressure off Hartman. NC State is 65th in rush play success rate but allowing only 12.3 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Pick your poison when it comes to the WF wideouts as all five of the rotational starters have had 20+ performances at least once this season. Oronde Gadsden, Kaleb Smith and C.J. Johnson are the three WRs that have scored 20+ fantasy points against the Wolfpack this season and all stand 6-foot-2 or taller. That would suggest outside receivers, but Gadsden and Johnson both operate out of the slot. Your best guess is as good as mine in deciding which Wake Forest receiver to invest in.
NC State:
Top Play(s) – QB MJ Morris ($5,400) The Wolfpack found their starting quarterback for the remainder of the year and for 2023 all in one night. The 4-star FR completed 20-of-29 passes for 265 yards and three scores, capping off a comeback win over Virginia Tech. Only 12 yards on the ground, but is a dual-threat, rushing for 602 yards as a high school senior. One-week wonder, or can this continue? I think his legs give us a solid floor and faces a Wake Forest defense that is allowing 28.7 FPPG to opposing QBs. Worth the risk, imo.
Fade – RB Jordan Houston ($5,700) The return of the sumo wrestler as Demie Sumo-Karngbaye ($4,500) is back in the lineup Saturday, and we’ll take the discounted price here if investing in one or the other. Should be a near 50-50 split as it is, but Sumo-Karngbaye is by far the better talent of the two, averaging 9.1 yards per touch this season. Wake Forest is a middle of the road run defense, ranked 60th in success rate and allowing just 15 FPPG to opposing RB1s, so rostering either player isn’t a necessity.
Bargain Bin – TE Trent Pennix ($3,600) Remember Jaylen Samuels back in the day? Pennix isn’t the same level of player but does have similar qualities and versatility. First game back since Week 1 and he played 68 of 79 offensive snaps against Virginia Tech, catching three passes on four targets with a touchdown.
Pivot Play – WR Thayer Thomas ($6,200) Season-highs against the Hokies with 10-118-2 on 13 targets. We know the situation here though. Just 21% target share for the year (not a high number) and Thomas could easily revert back to irrelevancy as he’s done to us so many times over the years after a big performance. WR1s are averaging 22.3 FPPG against WF this season, with several of the high numbers coming from slot receivers – Demario Douglas, Mycah Pittman to name a few. 97.3% of Thomas’ offensive snaps come from the slot.
Best of the Rest – n/a
Injury Notes – n/a