***NOTE – Arizona State vs. Oklahoma State has been rescheduled to 2:30 PM CT due to impending weather in Stillwater. We’re leaving the game writeup in below, but do not include players from this game in your lineups as they will not receive points.
Arizona State vs. Oklahoma State
Point-Spread: ASU -2.5
O/U Total: 56.5
Implied Score: ASU 29.5 – OK St 27
Weather: 67 degrees / 100% rain / 11 mph winds
Arizona State:
Top Play(s) – RB Cam Skattebo ($8,900) This is as straightforward as it gets honestly. Oklahoma State is dead last in the Big 12 in run defense, allowing 80 yards more per game on the ground than the next closest team. Skattebo is fourth in the conference in total rush yards and second in attempts per game (21.3).
Fade – Backups. Arizona State does not rotate at running back or wide receiver. Against Cincinnati, Jordyn Tyson, Melquan Stovall and Troy Omerie all played over 77% of the team’s offensive snaps. 68% of the team’s rushing attempts for the season have gone to either Skattebo or Sam Leavitt.
Bargain Bin – TE Chamon Metayer ($3,200) The Cincinnati transfer has been a complete non-factor over the last two games with just 14 receiving yards combined on three targets. Oklahoma State has struggled at times, though, to defend the TE position, allowing 23 fantasy points to Utah’s Brant Kuithe and 13 fantasy points to Arkansas’ Luke Hasz. Metayer is still third on Arizona State in total targets.
Pivot Play – QB Sam Leavitt ($7,100) Leavitt was back at practice after missing the Week 8 contest vs. Cincinnati, was able to participate without limitations, and will start Saturday night. Leavitt also benefits by the porous Oklahoma State run defense as a dual threat, and faces a defense that is giving up 26.7 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. You can play Leavitt solo without Skattebo but can also pair the two together in GPPs.
Best of the Rest – WR Jordyn Tyson (5,000) Team leader by a significant margin with 30% of the team’s target share and 50% of Arizona State’s receiving touchdowns. Tyson is realistically the only Sun Devil pass-catcher that we’re interested in.
Injury Notes – WR Xavier Guillory ($3,500) Listed as questionable. Troy Omerie played 100% of the team snaps vs. Cincinnati in his absence.
Oklahoma State:
Top Play(s) – WR Brennan Presley ($6,700) Oklahoma State threw the ball 37 times last week vs. Baylor. 17 of those passes were in the direction of Presley who is well on his way to a second-straight 100-target season. Arizona State is allowing around 38 FPPG to collective wide receiver rooms this season.
Fade – WR De’Zhaun Stribling ($6,100) No injury tag on DraftKings just yet, but Stribling played only a handful of snaps last week against Baylor, with the Cowboy Radio Network saying that he’s had multiple ankle tape jobs. Oklahoma State media coverage is few and far in between so unlikely we’ll find anything out there until an hour before kickoff.
Bargain Bin – WR Talyn Shettron ($4,100) Shettron was the beneficiary of Stribling being limited, playing a season-high 65% of snaps, converting on both of his targets. He’s only of interest to us if Stribling does not play.
Pivot Play – RB Ollie Gordon ($8,500) Gordon was insistent with the media this week that he is not going to sit out the rest of the season in preparation for the NFL Draft. So we’ll take him at his word that it’ll be a full workload on Saturday. Matchup is not overwhelming vs. Arizona State, but also not great. The Sun Devils are 65th in EPA per run play defensively, rank 45th in success rate and give up around 21 FPPG to opposing backfields. You know Gordon will have extremely low ownership.
Best of the Rest – QB Alan Bowman ($6,700) Arizona State’s pass defense is below average, ranking 91st in success rate, 86th in EPA per pass play defensively and seventh in the B12 in yards allowed per game. With backup Garret Rangel out for the year, there’s no real competition now to replace Bowman in the starting lineup. And when he plays the full game, 40+ pass attempts and the 300-yard bonus are always a possibility.
Injury Notes – We’ll keep eyes peeled for Stribling updates.
Texas A&M vs. South Carolina
Point-Spread: A&M -3
O/U Total: 44
Implied Score: A&M 23.5 – SC 20.5
Weather: 75 degrees / 23% rain / 3 mph winds
Texas A&M:
Top Play(s) – RB Le’Veon Moss ($6,200) Regardless of who gets the nod at quarterback, expect a full dosage of the Aggie running game behind Moss who has scored 20 or more fantasy points in each of the last three games. South Carolina hasn’t given up a ton of fantasy points this season to running backs, but statistically the run defense is the weakness on that side of the ball, ranking 111th in rush D success rate.
Fade – QBs. Mike Elko has not named a starter for the week between Marcel Reed and Conner Weigman, though we do anticipate it being Reed. The ambiguity around the position combined with the low game total means we’ll just avoid the headache in having to potentially late swap a player and / or monitor the news intently. South Carolina is only allowing 12.5 FPPG this season to quarterbacks.
Bargain Bin – RB Amari Daniels ($3,200) Strange pricing for a player that averages around 10 touches per game, coming off a season-high 92 yards last week vs. LSU, with three straight double-digit fantasy performances. Not sure I’d stack Moss and Daniels in the same lineup together, but Daniels is a really strong pivot at this price point.
Pivot Play – WR Noah Thomas ($3,800) The A&M wide receiver room is unappealing to say the least and we expect a run-based approach on Saturday from the Aggies, especially if Reed gets the nod. Thomas leads A&M in all receiving categories with 40 targets, 343 receiving yards and three of the team’s nine receiving touchdowns. 18 of those targets came in Week’s 4-5 when Marcel Reed was the team’s QB1, I should add.
Best of the Rest – n/a. Nine of the 15 passes last week by Texas A&M quarterbacks went to either Le’Veon Moss and Noah Thomas. Cyrus Allen plays a bunch, as does TE1 Tre Watson, so you could throw darts there, but our primary interest this week is with Moss, Daniels and Thomas only.
Injury Notes – n/a
South Carolina:
Top Play(s) – RB Raheim Sanders ($4,500) It is inarguable that South Carolina is the least appealing P4 team for college fantasy purposes. Sanders has looked healthy the last two weeks coming back from injury with 31 carries combined vs. Oklahoma and Alabama, rushing for a touchdown in both contests. The pricing is reasonable, though A&M doesn’t give up many fantasy points to opposing running backs.
Fade – WR Jared Brown ($3,900) It was announced this week that Brown will play on Saturday for the first time since Week 6. The issue is that I think he’s since been replaced as a starter by freshman WR Mazeo Bennett ($4,000). And Bennett has already been more productive than his counterpart, ranked second on the team in targets and receptions.
Bargain Bin – TE Josh Simon ($3,400) A&M has struggled to defend the tight end position this season. Florida’s Arlis Boardingham had his season-high in yards vs. the Aggies. Bowling Green’s Harold Fannin scored 28 fantasy points, while LSU’s Mason Taylor also scored double-digit fantasy points. Simon is the team leader in targets and receptions.
Pivot Play – QB LaNorris Sellers ($5,100) Marginal improvements throwing the football for Sellers, completing nearly 70% of his throws the last three games and did not turn it over once vs. Oklahoma in Week 8. Sellers does get volume on the ground as well with double-digit carries in each of the last four games. Here’s one reason to potentially start Sellers this week – the last two quarterbacks the Aggies have faced have scored the most fantasy points against A&M all season long with Garrett Nussmeier and Michael Van Buren topping 20 fpts. Maybe some leaks in the A&M secondary.
Best of the Rest – WRs Gage Larvadain ($3,400) and WR Vandrevius Jacobs ($3,300) One max South Carolina pass-catcher in a lineup which should be a given. Larvadain and Jacobs get a mention here because they played the most vs. Oklahoma in Week 8 over 60% of the team’s snaps. Would anticipate South Carolina’s starting trio at receiver being Larvadain, Jacobs and Bennett.
Injury Notes – n/a
Louisville vs. Clemson
Point-Spread: Clem -10
O/U Total: 62
Implied Score: Clem 36 – UL 26
Weather: 72 degrees / 84% rain / 3 mph winds
Louisville:
Top Play(s) – WR JaCorey Brooks ($7,500) The former Alabama transfer continues to get it done on a weekly basis, now with 23 or more fantasy points in four of the last five games. His usage should only increase with Caullin Lacy opting out of the season. Brooks is also not coming off the field, playing 96% of snaps in his last five games.
Fade – QB Tyler Shough ($7,500) Wouldn’t say Shough is an outright fade in GPPs but won’t have much exposure to say the least. Still to this point, just one quarterback has scored more than 18 fantasy points vs. Clemson this season, which came in the opener against Georgia.
Bargain Bin – TE Mark Redman ($3,300) Thought the San Diego State transfer would have a bigger impact than he’s had to this point, but trending up the last four weeks with 14 of his 19 targets coming in that span. Clemson is allowing 11.1 FPPG to opposing tight ends this season. Throw TE Nate Kurisky ($3,000) into the mix as well, catching two touchdowns last week vs. Boston College.
Pivot Play – RB Isaac Brown ($6,400) Clemson’s run defense has improved immensely over the last three weeks, holding Florida State, Wake Forest and Virginia to under 90 yards rushing and a combined 2.0 yards per carry. Overall, the Tigers are still 85th in rush D success rate and 108th in EPA per run play. Will the real Clemson run D please stand up? Brown will be the best running back Clemson has faced in the last four weeks.
Best of the Rest – WR Chris Bell ($3,900) We know the drill right now with Bell. Like Brooks, he does not come off the field, playing over 80% of the team’s snaps for the season, but production doesn’t always come with that. Bell has run almost the same number of routes this season as Brooks, yet has half of the targets (32) of his counterpart. I’ve been an WR Ahmari Huggins-Bruce ($3,500) detractor over the years, but he gets a stock boost with Caullin Lacy not in the picture. Converted on five of his six targets last week for 86 yards.
Injury Notes – n/a
Clemson:
Top Play(s) – RB Phil Mafah ($6,100) Mafah’s rushing attempts were spiking even before the bye week, and you’d have to imagine that’ll continue as he’s 100% and well-rested. Louisville’s run defense is average across the board, and we expect Clemson to win the battle in the trenches. Mafah has the highest floor of any player on the entire slate.
Fade – WR Adam Randall ($4,200) Yes, Randall caught a touchdown in Week 7 but was shut out of the stat column in Week 8 on just two targets. WRs TJ Moore ($3,400) and WR Troy Stellato ($3,300) are significantly cheaper with higher projection as the team’s starting outside receivers.
Bargain Bin – TE Jake Briningstool ($4,200) Briningstool is now first on the team in targets (38) and receptions (29) as he’s also seen a production uptick in the last few weeks, combining for 142 yards against both Wake Forest and Virginia. Four tight ends this season scored double-digit fantasy points when facing Louisville.
Pivot Play – QB Cade Klubnik ($9,700) Mafah likely will have one of the higher ownership percentages on the slate, but the projection and matchup favor Klubnik here. And this is not a scenario to stack the two together, so we view Klubnik as a contrarian play on the slate. The overall numbers for the Louisville pass defense are fine, but the Cardinals are allowing 27.5 FPPG to opposing QBs this season. Four QBs have scored at least 25 fantasy points vs. Louisville this season. With Klubnik in the Heisman race, Clemson could look to boost his numbers a bit.
Best of the Rest – WR Antonio Williams ($5,500) Just narrowly behind Briningstool with 28 receptions on 36 targets, with two touchdowns in the last three games. Louisville has allowed four receivers to score more than 18 fantasy points against them this season.
Injury Notes – WR Tyler Brown ($4,800) Confirmed out this week by Dabo Swinney, saying he’s still week to week and not ready to be designated as day to day. WR Bryant Wesco ($3,200) is also questionable but is deemed to be day to day by Swinney.
Wisconsin vs. Iowa
Point-Spread: Iowa -2.5
O/U Total: 40.5
Implied Score: Iowa 21.5 – UW 19
Weather: 55 degrees / 6% rain / 6 mph winds
Wisconsin:
Top Play(s) – WR Will Pauling ($3,900) Now fully healthy, Pauling has looked like the 2023 version of himself with 27 targets over the last three weeks. We’ve said now ad nauseum in this writeups that Iowa will give up plenty of fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. Five wideouts have scored at least 21 fantasy points against the Hawkeyes this season. This is just too cheap a salary for a player of Pauling’s caliber.
Fade – QB Braedyn Locke ($5,200) While the Hawkeyes allow points in droves to wide receivers, that isn’t necessarily the case for quarterbacks. Just one QB has scored more than 19 fantasy points vs. Iowa this season. Instead of playing Locke in your DFS lineups, just play his over, regardless of the odds, of 0.5 INTs. That prop has been a…Locke…this season. I’ll show myself out.
Bargain Bin – WR Vinny Anthony ($3,400) For all the same reasons that we liked Will Pauling in this matchup with Iowa. Anthony is the team’s top deep threat at receiver, averaging 19.1 YPC and an aDOT of 13.0. Season-highs last week vs. Penn State with 10 targets and played 97% of the team’s offensive snaps.
Pivot Play – RB Tawee Walker ($6,300) Wisconsin has fully turned over the backfield to Walker after the Chez Mellusi departure, now with 20 or more carries in each of the last three games. We don’t anticipate that changing at all this week barring unforeseen circumstances. The issue is the matchup where Iowa is giving up just 15.7 FPPG to opposing running backs.
Best of the Rest – WR C.J. Williams ($3,100) or WR Trech Kekahuna ($3,700) There’s a substantial gap in value between Pauling / Anthony and Wisconsin’s WR3 and WR4. But if forced to choose another option besides those listed above, Williams and Kekahuna are on the field over 50% of the time.
Injury Notes – n/a
Iowa:
Weekly question of how does the matchup look for RB Kaleb Johnson ($9,500)? I’d say good, not great. Wisconsin is 51st in rush D success rate and 69th in EPA per run play defensively. The Badgers have allowed just three running backs this season to score 17 or more fantasy points against them. Zero scored more than 22 fantasy points, which we absolutely need from Johnson as a bare minimum to hit value. The Home vs. Away splits for Johnson are promising, though. 11 of his 16 rushing touchdowns this season have come at home where Johnson is averaging over 20 yards per game more on the ground. TE Luke Lachey ($3,200) deserves a small mention, averaging 3.0 receptions on 4.3 targets per game. Four tight ends have scored at least nine fantasy points vs. Wisconsin this season, and the passing game should get a slight boost with Brendan Sullivan starting over Cade McNamara.
USC vs. Washington
Point-Spread: USC -2.5
O/U Total: 55.5
Implied Score: USC 29 – UW 26.5
Weather: 52 degrees / 80% rain / 7 mph winds
USC:
Top Play(s) – RB Woody Marks ($7,700) Just a touch below Phil Mafah as one of the highest floor players on the slate, scoring 20 or more fantasy points in six of eight games played this season. Washington’s weakness on defense is against the run, ranked 79th in rush D success rate and 81st in EPA per run play.
Fade – RB Quinten Joyner ($4,000) Twice this season has Joyner scored double-digit fantasy points. Once came in a 48-0 blowout over Utah State. That won’t happen on Saturday. The second was one a flukey 75-yard run vs. Penn State.
Bargain Bin – WR Makai Lemon ($4,700) We promoted Ja’Kobi Lane a few weeks back but turned out to be a one-week wonder. We’re going to do the same with Lemon, but this time around we have multiple weeks of evidence with 70 or more receiving yards in three straight games, with 18 receptions on 23 targets in that span.
Pivot Play – QB Miller Moss ($7,000) A 22-point projection at $7k isn’t fade worthy, but we were close to putting Moss in that category given the matchup. Washington ranks No. 1 nationally in pass D success rate and No. 2 in EPA per pass play defensively, allowing just 12 FPPG to opposing QBs. Now here’s the caveat. Easy to rack up those numbers when facing Tayven Jackson, Cade McNamara, Jack Tuttle, Cole Snyder and Athan Kaliakmanis. In the only contest this season vs. a legitimate QB, the Huskies allowed 31 fantasy points to John Mateer.
Best of the Rest – WRs Not Named Makai Lemon. In short, not worth it. You have five receivers between Zachariah Branch, Kyle Ford, Duce Robinson, Kyron Hudson and Ja’Kobi Lane playing between 50% and 60% of the team’s offensive snaps last week vs. Rutgers. Washington is only allowing 20 FPPG to entire WR groupings.
Injury Notes – n/a
Washington:
Top Play(s) – RB Jonah Coleman ($5,900) Will Rogers might pop in the “optimal lineups” but this is a very reasonable pricing for a player that has scored double-digit fantasy points in every game this season. Metrics believe the pass defense for USC is worse than the run D, which might be true. But the Trojans are giving up a ton of points to opposing running backs this season. Five RBs have scored at least 17 fantasy points in their matchups with USC.
Fade – n/a. All Washington players are priced appropriately.
Bargain Bin – TE Keleki Latu ($3,200) Third on the team in targets (34) and receptions (28) with an absurd 82.4% catch rate for a tight end. Remember, this is a team that gave up 46 fantasy points to a tight end already in Penn State’s Tyler Warren.
Pivot Play – WR Jeremiah Hunter ($3,200) Hunter is definitely a longshot play, having scored double-digit fantasy points in just three of seven games played this season. He’s a pivot play because we completely counted Hunter out last week in thinking that he was being replaced by a younger option in Rashid Williams. Snap counts don’t reflect that, with Hunter having a 71-12 percent advantage in time spent on the field.
Best of the Rest – QB Will Rogers ($5,400) Rogers is the best “spend down” option at QB on the slate, facing a USC pass defense that is 116th in success rate. WRs Denzel Boston ($6,700) and WR Giles Jackson ($4,800) are both options as they account for 49.6% of the team’s target share and 11 of the 15 receiving touchdowns. Five times have wide receivers scored at least 20 fantasy points vs. USC this season.
Injury Notes – n/a
Kentucky vs. Tennessee
Point-Spread: UT -17.5
O/U Total: 45.5
Implied Score: UT 31.5 – UK 14
Weather: 70 degrees / 20% rain / 2 mph winds
Kentucky:
We’re completely out on the Kentucky QB situation most weeks, but especially this weekend as it’s undecided who is the starter between Brock Vandagriff and Rutgers transfer Gavin Wimsatt. Also not interested in either Jamarion Wilcox or Demie Sumo with Tennessee ranked No. 1 in the country in rush D success rate and No. 1 in EPA per run play defensively. That leaves just WR Dane Key ($4,800) and WR Barion Brown ($3,800) as the only considerable options. The WR duo accounts for 58% of the team’s target share and five of the six receiving touchdowns.
Tennessee:
The Kentucky run defense has shut down this season, knowing the offense isn’t capable of bailing them out. After limiting opponents to under 4.0 yards per carry through the first six games, the Wildcats have given up over 500 rushing yards and seven touchdowns over the last two games. Not a recipe for success against one of the best running backs in the country in RB Dylan Sampson ($8,900). One Tennessee beat writer projected Sampson to hit 200 rushing yards this week.
TCU vs. Baylor
Point-Spread: Bayl -2.5
O/U Total: 63.5
Implied Score: Bayl 33 – TCU 30.5
Weather: 76 degrees / 100% rain / 16 mph winds
TCU:
Top Play(s) – RB Savion Williams ($5,550) Notice I labeled Williams as a RB and not a receiver because the wildcat continued again last week vs. Texas Tech, as the senior has rushed for 70 or more yards now in each of the last two games. And the funny part is that Williams’ target volume really hasn’t been impacted because of his role change in the offense, with 14 targets over the last two games. His involvement in the TCU offense makes Williams one of the top plays of the slate.
Fade – RB Cam Cook ($4,800) The running back room has been diminished now by Savion Williams, and former RB1 Cam Cook had just a single carry last week vs. Texas Tech.
Bargain Bin – WR JP Richardson ($3,500) Very reasonable pricing for a player in Richardson that averages 4.5 receptions on six targets per game and is second on the team in routes run. WR Eric McAlister ($4,200) gets a slight bump with Savion Williams’ role change, now with over 130 receiving yards combined over the last two weeks. He and Williams essentially shared a starting spot on the outside.
Pivot Play – QB Josh Hoover ($8,300) Baylor is only giving up around 18 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks this season, but Big 12 QBs have consistently generated fantasy points against the Bears. Four quarterbacks within the conference have scored at least 20 fantasy points in their respective matchup with Baylor who is 106th in EPA per pass play defensively. TCU will always chuck it around the yard, ranked 7th nationally in pass play percentage.
Best of the Rest – WR Jack Bech ($7,500) Bech has been slowed down in recent weeks, failing to hit 100 yards receiving in three straight contests after surpassing the century mark in four of the first five games to begin the year. Baylor has allowed five wide receivers this season – all five play in the Big 12 – to score at least 20 fantasy points against them.
Injury Notes – n/a
Baylor:
Top Play(s) – QB Sawyer Robertson ($7,700) Robertson is our highest projected player on the night slate and our 4th highest projected player of the entire weekend in College Fantasy Football as he’s scored 30 or more points in three of the last five games. TCU’s perceived strength defensively is against the pass, but Robertson’s ability with his legs negates that concern. TCU has struggled against running QBs this season, allowing 100+ to Houston’s Zeon Chriss on the ground and then 87 yards in the opener vs. Stanford.
Fade – RB Richard Reese ($3,200) The opening game starter has now fallen to RB3 on the depth chart, playing just a handful of snaps against Oklahoma State in Week 9.
Bargain Bin – WR Monaray Baldwin ($3,000) Production for Baldwin is hit or miss, usually a miss with a 39% catch rate, but is on the field a lot for a min salaried player. Baldwin is fourth on the team in targets (31) and third in routes run, playing over 50% of the team’s offensive snaps.
Pivot Play – RB Bryson Washington ($5,200) over RB Dawson Pendergrass ($3,500) Folks will look at the box score from last week and immediately be attracted to playing Pendergrass over Washington given that he rushed for 142 yards and a touchdown last week vs. Oklahoma State. And Pendergrass actually should have had more, with a 34-yard TD run called back because of a hold. That performance did not change the pecking order in the Baylor backfield, though, as Washington remains the team’s RB1 and out-carried Pendergrass 17-6 on the day. TCU has allowed some big performances on the ground with SMU’s Brashard Smith (41 fpts) and UCF’s RJ Harvey (39 fpts).
Best of the Rest – WR Josh Cameron ($4,500) After scoring six touchdowns in a three-week span, Cameron was nullified vs. Oklahoma State with just 13 yards receiving on two targets. Expect that to change this week as most teams just keep the ball on the ground against the porous OSU run defense. WR Hal Presley ($3,500) has scored double-digit fantasy points in each of the last four games as he and Cameron have separated from the pack as the top two Baylor wideouts. Baylor really spreads the ball around – Cameron leads the team with 16% of the target share – so having a WR in your lineup is not a must.
Injury Notes – n/a
Pittsburgh vs. SMU
Point-Spread: SMU -7.5
O/U Total: 57.5
Implied Score: SMU 32.5 – Pitt 25
Weather: 76 degrees / 100% rain / 13 mph winds
Pittsburgh:
Top Play(s) – RB Desmond Reid ($9,800) I don’t think there is a play I love much at all on the Pitt side on this slate, so I’ll side somewhat reluctantly with Pitt’s best offensive player in Reid. The pricing is the primary issue because we have two players in Kaleb Johnson and Dylan Sampson at the same position with higher projections and cheaper salaries. SMU has also been strong at defending the run this season, allowing just 19 fantasy points to opposing backfields. Just one running back has scored more than 16 fantasy points all year vs. the Mustangs.
Fade – RB Rodney Hammond ($3,500) Even when Desmond Reid sat out the second half vs. Syracuse last week, Hammond barely played, with just three rushing attempts.
Bargain Bin – TE Gavin Bartholomew ($3,200) This will be as good a chance as any for Bartholomew to score his first touchdown of the season as tight ends have found relative success against SMU. Stanford’s Sam Roush (14 fpts) and BYU’s Mata’ava Ta’ase (12.2 fpts) posted season-highs in fantasy points in their respective matchups with the Mustangs. Bartholomew is fifth on the team in targets and third in routes run.
Pivot Play – QB Eli Holstein ($9,300) Holstein has hit a bit of a midseason roadblock after being one of the best fantasy quarterbacks in the country through five games. Holstein was awful vs. Cal, failing to throw for 200 yards and then didn’t get a chance to do anything against Syracuse last week because of Kyle McCord’s nightmarish performance. I’d personally look elsewhere for a QB as SMU is only giving up 19 FPPG to opposing QBs this season and there’s a chance these last two weeks are a reflection of the real Eli Holstein versus the one that was a top 10 fantasy quarterback in the first five games.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Pitt doesn’t have a difference maker at wideout and spreads the ball around too much to have any serious interest here. Konata Mumpfield leads the team in targets and receptions, but just 19.5% of the target share. Raphael Williams Jr. is first in routes run and leads all Pitt wideouts in touchdowns (5). Kenny Johnson and Censere Lee play around 50% of the team’s offensive snaps. SMU did allow 46 combined fantasy points this past week to Duke’s top two wideouts, fwiw.
Injury Notes – n/a
SMU:
Top Play(s) – RB Brashard Smith ($7,700) Smith carried the SMU offense last week, scoring 32 fantasy points as he had a season-high 26 rushing attempts, finishing with 117 yards and two scores. Pitt’s run defense is the strength of the unit, unfortunately, ranking 22nd in rush D success rate and allowing a combined 20 fantasy points per week to opposing backfields. We envision SMU trying to establish the run, though, after last week’s shaky performance from Kevin Jennings.
Fade – n/a. SMU players are priced appropriately.
Bargain Bin – TE Matthew Hibner ($3,500) The former Michigan transfer filled in for injured star RJ Maryland who will miss the remainder of the season. Hibner finished with four catches on six targets, playing 95% of the team’s offensive snaps. RB/WR Roderick Daniels Jr. ($3,700) is also too cheap for a player that had 150+ receiving yards vs. Duke last week and is consistently involved in the offense as both a running back and receiver.
Pivot Play – QB Kevin Jennings ($6,100) There should not be a $3.2k gap between Holstein and Jennings’ salaries on DK. Jennings did stumble last week vs. Duke with four fumbles (two lost) and three interceptions, but has still put up fantasy points, averaging 24 FPPG over the last five weeks. The concerns are that Jennings was questionable for this contest up until Thursday of this week, and now faces a turnover-happy Pitt defense that just intercepted Kyle McCord again as your read this. A 23-point projection at this pricing puts Jennings squarely in play, though.
Best of the Rest – WRs. You all know the drill here. Jake Bailey leads the team with just 16% of the total target share as SMU spreads the ball around between five different wideouts. Key’Shawn Smith was starting to break free with touchdowns against both Louisville and Stanford, though was held to just a single catch against Duke. The enigmatic Jordan Hudson played 93% of SMU’s offensive snaps last Saturday – by far the most of any Mustang receiver.
Injury Notes – n/a
