Kentucky vs. Auburn
- Point-Spread: Aub -11
- O/U Total: 45
- Implied Score: Aub 28 – UK 17
- Weather: 61 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
Kentucky:
Top Play(s) – WR Kendrick Law ($3,200) Kentucky receiver as a top play? In this economy? Yes, especially when the Wildcats throw it 40 times a game as they’ve done in the last three weeks. The Alabama transfer leads the team in every receiving category, coming off his first 100-yard performance of the season against Tennessee on just two receptions.
Fade – RB Dante Dowdell ($4,900) Seth McGowan sat out last week, and Dowdell still wasn’t the Kentucky running back that finished with the most fantasy points. That belonged to Jason Patterson who caught seven passes on eight targets vs. Tennessee. McGowan is expected back and would be the only Kentucky RB even remotely playable. This Auburn run defense is legitimately one of the best groups in the country. No. 1 in the nation in EPA per run play. No. 1 in non-sack yards per rush allowed and No. 2 in rush D success rate.
Bargain Bin – WR DJ Miller ($3,700) Miller enters the starting lineup with Ja’Mori Maclin out due to injury, and has already put up the best performance by a Kentucky receiver in what seems like a decade with 120 yards and two touchdowns on five receptions. I’d say he’s earned a starting role moving forward over someone like Hardley Gilmore who posted zero receiving yards with three catches on six targets. How does that happen?
Pivot Play – QB Cutter Boley ($7,100) Boley threw as many touchdowns last week (5) as he did the prior four starts combined. Passing volume has been up the last three games and would expect that should continue with how good Auburn is defending the run. Not the case against the pass, as the Tigers are 89th in pass D success rate and 83rd in giving up explosive pass plays. Boley isn’t as good a play as last week vs. Tennessee, but he’s in the conversation.
Best of the Rest – TE Willie Rodriguez ($3,300) Shot in the dark play as Kentucky plays a ton of 12 personnel with two tight ends on the field. Rodriguez has caught at least two passes in all but one game this season.
Injury Notes – WR Ja’Mori Maclin (out), RB Seth McGowan (probable)
Auburn:
Top Play(s) – RB Jeremiah Cobb ($7,000) Cobb has been awesome in this two-week stretch since Damari Alston left the team, rushing for 111 yards vs. Missouri, followed by 153 yards on 28 attempts in the win over Arkansas last week. Cobb still is Auburn’s top play, but this comes with a caveat. UConn transfer Durell Robinson is finally 100% healthy and “full-go” according to Hugh Freeze. Unlikely Robinson factors in greatly to Cobb’s workload, but that’s another RB that could garner some carries on Saturday. Kentucky’s run defense has been good the last two games, holding Texas and Tennessee to a combined 153 rushing yards.
Fade – WR Cam Coleman ($6,700) Coleman isn’t an outright fade, but he has two factors working against him. (1) The quarterback position isn’t fixed with Ashton Daniels as the starter. (2) While upgraded to probable, Coleman has been limited all week by the ankle injury he suffered against Arkansas.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Nobody on Auburn below $5.5k is playable.
Pivot Play – QB Ashton Daniels ($7,000) Every inclination is that Daniels will start against Kentucky this week. Think Jackson Arnold 2.0 in terms of style if for some reason you haven’t heard of Daniels prior to this. Will run, can’t throw. Hugh Freeze stated that both QBs received first-team reps throughout the week, so the concern is a possible two-QB system which would kill all lineup hopes that include Daniels.
Best of the Rest – WR Eric Singleton Jr. ($5,300) Singleton is the healthier of the two starting receivers. While the 78% catch rate is impressive this year, Singleton needs volume to hit big, and he just isn’t seeing it, averaging just 6.1 targets per game. That won’t cut it when he’s averaging 9.7 YPC with a 4.9 aDOT. Kentucky is giving up around 37 FPPG to opposing team WRs and just allowed nearly 400 yards through the air to Tennessee last week.
Injury Notes – WR Cam Coleman (probable), Malcolm Simmons (probable)
Oklahoma vs. Tennessee
- Point-Spread: OU -3
- O/U Total: 57
- Implied Score: OU 30 – Tenn 27
- Weather: 56 degrees / 19% rain / 5 mph winds
Oklahoma:
Top Play(s) – WR Isaiah Sategna III ($6,900) Sategna isn’t the $3k bargain that he used to be earlier in the year, but still the top play for the Sooners because slot receivers in Ben Arbuckle’s system are undefeated. He’s heating up too, now with double-digit targets in four of the last five games, with the fifth game being against Kent State where the starters came out in the third quarter. Sategna still managed two touchdowns against Kent State too. You can slice and dice this Tennessee defense in any fashion, but particularly in the secondary, where the Vols allow almost 50 fantasy points a week to wide receivers.
Fade – RB Tory Blaylock ($5,600) Just when Blaylock was trending towards RB1 status, he has the rug pulled out from under him, giving way to RB Xavier Robinson ($4,800) who rushed for 109 yards and two scores vs. Ole Miss last week. The entire OU run game is trending upwards, rushing for 150+ yards in each of the last two games, and we see the Sooners riding the hot hand on Saturday with Robinson over Blaylock. The coaching staff confirmed as much this week, going so far as to say he might even be the focal point.
Bargain Bin – WR Deion Burks ($4,000) Burks’ decline is a product of the system – outside receivers aren’t preferred in Arbuckle’s system. But Tennessee is so bad on the back end of the defense that two WRs are potentially viable in the same lineup this week. Burks leads all OU receivers in routes run, playing 88% of the team’s offensive snaps.
Pivot Play – QB John Mateer ($8,600) Any QB is playable against this Tennessee secondary, just as we saw last week with Kentucky’s Cutter Boley throwing 5 touchdown passes – more than he had in the previous four starts combined. We should get decent ownership leverage if playing Mateer given his own recent performances.
Best of the Rest – WR Javonnie Gibson ($3,600) Gibson will get that start again on Saturday night with Keontez Lewis again doubtful this week. Just one reception on four targets for the Arkansas Pine-Bluff transfer but has played over 90% of snaps the last two weeks.
Injury Notes – RB Jovantae Barnes (questionable), RB Taylor Tatum (questionable), WR Keontez Lewis (doubtful)
Tennessee:
Top Play(s) – RB DeSean Bishop ($6,700) Tough to go against what is working, even if the matchup isn’t the best. Bishop was limited to just 48 yards on 14 carries against Kentucky after consecutive 100-yard performances but still manages to find the end zone twice in the win. He’s been the hot hand of the Tennessee offense and is likely to see lower ownership because of the strong OU front. Working on Bishop’s favor is the Sooner defense struggling this season with missed tackles, while Bishop’s 4.08 yards after contact is the highest among Tennessee backs.
Fade – RB Peyton Lewis ($4,300) Lewis is primarily used red-zone situations which may be few and far to come by against the Sooner defense. Collectively, the OU defense allows just 14.5 FPPG to opposing backfields, so we’re not likely to be interested in an RB3, short yardage back with the Vols being an underdog.
Bargain Bin – WR Mike Matthews ($4,600) If bargain shopping the Tennessee offense, we’d side with Matthews over players like Miles Kitselman or Star Thomas. Matthews had his third 100-yard performance of the season last week vs. Kentucky, converting on all six of his targets. He’s had three or more receptions in all but one game this year and leads the Vols in routes run.
Pivot Play – WR Braylon Staley ($5,800) This week feels like a matchup for Staley to exploit. Slot receivers have found the most success recently against the Sooner defense, including Ole Miss freshman Winston Watkins last week who posted 111 yards on four receptions. Against Texas, it was DeAndre Moore Jr. who had 50 yards and a touchdown. Tennessee has been leaky in pass protection the last two weeks, so may not have time to allow all the deep shots to develop. That plays in favor of Staley seeing a good chunk of targets in the middle of the field.
Best of the Rest – QB Joey Aguilar ($8,400) Aguilar is closer to a fade than a play this week. Tennessee likely has to throw to win on Saturday, but that’s usually worked out better for Oklahoma than its opponents in those scenarios. Trinidad Chambliss was the first QB to score more than 20 fantasy points against OU last week as the Sooners allow just 9.5 FPPG to quarterbacks this season. The WRs and Bishop are our primary focus for the Vols.
Injury Notes – n/a
Wake Forest vs. Florida State
- Point-Spread: FSU -10
- O/U Total: 50
- Implied Score: FSU 30 – WF 20
- Weather: 65 degrees / 0% rain / 2 mph winds
Wake Forest:
Fade – QBs. We have a couple situations on this slate where teams could play two quarterbacks. Wake fits that description with Deshawn Purdie and Robby Ashford, and the Deacons are nearly good enough of a passing team to warrant any consideration here. Pass.
Bargain Bin – WR Sterling Berkhalter ($3,800) or WR Micah Mays Jr. ($3,400) Carlos Hernandez seems to have fallen out of favor in the Wake WR rotation, with Mays and Berkhalter solidifying their starting spots on the outside. Mays leads the team with a 20.3 YPC average and could pose problems for the FSU secondary that ranks 100th in explosive pass plays allowed. Berkhalter is second on the team in routes run. Limit to one Wake Forest wideout per lineup with the team’s QB conundrum.
Pivot Play – WR Chris Barnes ($5,400) Barnes is the fastest player on the team, and Wake’s No. 1 wideout with 29 receptions for 481 yards and three scores. Not often do you see a player with a 16.6 YPC average and an aDOT of just 6.7 yards. That speaks to Barnes’ electric speed.
Best of the Rest – RB Demond Claiborne ($6,100) Claiborne is an option for the Deacons, but be prepared to throw your remote at the TV because this has been the most maddening of seasons if you’re a fantasy owner of the Wake RB1. Early on it was just getting vultured in the red zone by Robby Ashford that was causing frustrations. Now it’s injury, as Claiborne has left almost every game the last month or so with some sort of ailment. Claiborne is not on the injury report fwiw. While the FSU season has gone in the dumpster, the run defense has not, where the Seminoles are 26th in rush D success rate and 12th in limiting explosive run plays.
Injury Notes – QB Robby Ashford (probable), TE Eni Falayi (questionable), TE Harry Lodge (out)
Florida State:
Top Play(s) – WR Micahi Danzy ($6,000) There’s nothing much to speak on from a fantasy perspective, and tough to trust anyone on the FSU side after essentially quitting against Stanford two weeks ago. We’ll side with the player that has been the best performer of late in Danzy who has consecutive 100-yard receiving performances and may have assumed the WR1 mantle over Duce Robinson by now. Also, why is Florida State favored by double-digits besides the fact they’re the home team?
Fade – RB Caziah Holmes ($4,000) Holmes is third on the depth chart and only played two snaps against Stanford despite rushing for 40 yards and touchdown the week prior versus Pittsburgh.
Bargain Bin – TE Randy Pittman ($3,700) Pittman is third on the team in targets (22) and receptions (14) and can provide value in multiple avenues as the tight end has a rushing and passing touchdown this season. Pittman does not leave the field, playing over 95% of the offensive snaps in his last three games.
Pivot Play – RB Gavin Sawchuk ($5,900) Despite the calls for freshman Ousmane Kromah, the FSU staff continues to trot out Sawchuk as the primary back, as he saw a season-high 20 rushing attempts against Stanford in Week 8. Wake Forest is excellent against the run, though, ranking 31st in success rate and 26th in limiting explosive rush plays. Sawchuk may see similar volume as the Stanford matchup If Castellanos is hobbled again Saturday. WR Duce Robinson ($6,300) fits the profile as a strong pivot play away from Danzy, with over 80 receiving yards in three of his last four games. The fourth game was when he suffered a first half injury vs. Pitt.
Best of the Rest – QB Thomas Castellanos ($8,700) Don’t know that Castellanos is playable here at this price. While listed now as probable and trending in the right direction per HC Mike Norvell, there’s a chance we see backup Kevin Sperry at some point. This isn’t even a great matchup to exploit either, as Wake Forest is No. 1 in the ACC in yards allowed through the air, and giving up just 15.7 FPPG this season to QBs.
Injury Notes – RB Roydell Williams (questionable), RB Kam Davis (questionable), QB Tommy Castellanos (probable)
Georgia Tech vs. NC State
- Point-Spread: GT -5.5
- O/U Total: 58.5
- Implied Score: GT 32 – NC St 26.5
- Weather: 55 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
Georgia Tech:
Top Play(s) – QB Haynes King ($9,600) Highest projected QB on the slate, and fourth-highest projected QB in all of college fantasy this week. King has now entered Heisman conversation with the Yellow Jackets undefeated and ranked inside the Top 10, which should motivate coaches to allow for King to keep racking up the gaudy stats each week. NC State allows just 20.6 FPPG to quarterbacks this season, but the defense has fallen off in this recent losing streak, allowing 99 combined points to Notre Dame and Pittsburgh. Both QBs in this matchup you can play naked and not forced to stack with a WR.
Fade – RB Jamal Haynes ($5,500) Maybe there’s a backstory we don’t know about that is the reasoning behind Haynes’ decline, but he’s the second-best back in the Georgia Tech rotation now, averaging less than four yards a carry over the last month. Four times in the last six weeks Haynes has failed to have more than 30 yards rushing and is now fully splitting carries with RB Malachi Hosley ($5,000) who has been the better running back of the two. NC State is 131st in explosive run plays allowed, which would favor Hosley as well, averaging 8.0 YPC this season.
Bargain Bin – TE Josh Beetham ($3,100) Georgia Tech must’ve seen something in Syracuse’s defensive coverages that favored tight ends, because Beetham had a career high two receiving touchdowns against the Orange. AND that included a dropped touchdown that would’ve given him three on the day. High risk to play Beetham again, but NC State does allow 13 FPPG to the tight end position.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Play Georgia Tech receivers at your own risk, I learned the hard way last week with Eric Rivers, who I thought would have a bigger role with Malik Rutherford declared out. Rutherford is back, so all three starters will be in the lineup. NC State is 101st in explosive pass plays allowed this season, which should favor WR Isiah Canion ($3,300) and his 15.0 YPC average and 13.4 aDOT.
Injury Notes – WR Malik Rutherford (probable)
NC State:
Top Play(s) – QB CJ Bailey ($7,300) For now, Bailey is the top play here with the injury situation at tight end and running back. If Daylan Smothers and Joly are out Saturday, the only instance in which NC State upsets Georgia Tech will be for Bailey to have a big-time performance. Tech is 6th in the conference in yards allowed through the air, but are 92nd in pass D success rate, allowing just over 21 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks.
Bargain Bin – RB Jayden Scott ($4,300) We don’t have much to go off of if Daylan Smothers were to miss the game, given that he accounts for 64% of the team’s rushing production and almost half of NC State’s rushing attempts. Scott would be next man up if Smothers were out, and has looked good in brief appearances, averaging five yards per carry on 47 attempts with three touchdowns.
Pivot Play – WRs. Same situation as last year essentially. The Top 4 receivers all have between 27 and 34 targets, and on the field anywhere between 60-80% of the time. Equal distribution, nobody stands out amongst the group. WR Noah Rogers ($3,300) did find the end-zone last week against Pittsburgh, while playing a team best 84% of the offensive snaps, so he would be the preferred choice. But let’s call this what it is…a crapshoot.
Best of the Rest – We’ll be on the lookout for Justin Joly and Daylan Smothers news in pregame warmups. Joly figures to be the player least likely to play after his hamstring injury last week on the touchdown reception that was the Greg Jennings Madden video reincarnated in real life. Smothers popped up on the Thursday injury report, and as of writing this on Friday morning, there is no intel as to whether he will play or not. Smothers is the best play of the two if we see him in, facing the 15th ranked rush defense in the ACC.
Injury Notes – TE Justin Joly (questionable), RB Daylan Smothers (questionable)
USC vs. Nebraska
- Point-Spread: USC -6.5
- O/U Total: 59.5
- Implied Score: USC 33 – Neb 26.5
- Weather: 47 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
USC:
Top Play(s) – RB King Miller ($7,900) Miller proved the skeptics (me) incorrect against Notre Dame, as the walk-on dominated the backfield touches over the 4-star recruit, out-carrying Bryan Jackson 18-6 en route to 70 yards on the ground against the Irish. This is a much better matchup against a Nebraska front that is 13th among 17 teams in the B1G in yards allowed on the ground and have given up at least two rushing touchdowns in each of the last five games. Both Minnesota and Northwestern averaged over five YPC as a team vs. the Cornhuskers.
Fade – QB Jayden Maiava ($9,000) The 23-point projection here is fine so Maiava isn’t a player to completely eliminate from your queue but is not a priority play here. Below 50-degree temperatures for starters, for a team that practices in 80 degrees and sun routinely. Nebraska has allowed just one team all season to throw more than 200 yards against them, while no team has thrown more than two touchdowns. There’s simply not a shortage of capable QB options on the slate to where we need to force Maiava in our lineups.
Bargain Bin – WR Tanook Hines ($3,300) The freshman is coming off his best performance of the season, catching five passes for 67 yards on eight targets vs. Notre Dame. Sounds like USC could be getting a receiver or two back from injury coming off the bye week, but Hines has established himself as WR3.
Pivot Play – WR Makai Lemon ($7,200) Lemon is tied for 13th in the country in receptions (48) with 28% of the team’s target share. His 61 targets this season are nearly double the next closest USC wideout. If you wanted a reason to decrease your ownership % of the star slot receiver, it would be that the Cornhuskers are only allowing a combined 18 FPPG to opposing wide receivers this season, one of the lowest marks in the country.
Best of the Rest – WR Ja’Kobi Lane ($6,500) Remember back in early October when Lane was $3.7k? That would have been playable here. Lane is coming off his best performance of the year, and looking fully healthy now too, catching six passes for 11 yards and a score vs. the Irish. We aren’t seeing the 6-man rotations at WR this year for USC, trotting out primarily Lemon, Lane and Hines with no other wideout involved.
Injury Notes – RB Eli Sanders (out), RB Waymond Jordan (out), WR Zacharyus Williams (probable)
Nebraska:
Top Play(s) – RB Emmett Johnson ($7,500) Johnson is now 6th in the country in rushing yards (837), averaging close to six yards a carry with the 8th most rushing attempts in the nation. USC is improved defensively against the run but allowed a season-high 306 yards to Notre Dame in Week 8, and 171 yards on the ground in Week 5 to Illinois. While USC held Michigan to just 109 yards in their matchup, that was with Justice Haynes playing just a half due to injury.
Fade – QB Dylan Raiola ($6,400) Game stack in hopes this is a shootout is the only scenario to play Raiola, who has failed to score more than 10 fantasy points in the last four games. Nebraska is also second to last in the B1G in sacks allowed, while USC is fourth in the conference in sacks, so expect negative points from Raiola in rushing yards.
Bargain Bin – TE Luke Lindenmeyer ($3,200) Nebraska being 6.5-point dogs is important when it comes to Lindenmeyer. The junior tight end has posted more than 50 receiving yards on two occurrences this year – against Michigan and Minnesota. Both losses with a trailing game script. His target volume increases substantially in games where Nebraska has been trailing.
Pivot Play – WR Dane Key ($3,600) or WR Jacory Barney Jr. ($3,200) The best thing we can say about this duo is that they do not leave the field. Nebraska trots out three wide receivers, and three wide receivers only. The leading receiver in five of the last six games against USC has played outside, which would favor Key or the guy listed below in this matchup.
Best of the Rest – WR Nyziah Hunter ($5,100) All the focus in the summer was on Dane Key and Jacory Barney when it was the Cal transfer we should have been taking in offseason drafts. 20 of his 33 receptions this season have come in the past four games with four touchdowns in that span. USC is giving up around 41 combined fantasy points per game to WRs this season.
Injury Notes – n/a
Washington State vs. Oregon State
- Point-Spread: WSU -3.5
- O/U Total: 47.5
- Implied Score: WSU 25.5 – OSU 22
- Weather: 58 degrees / 66% rain / 7 mph winds
Washington State:
Top Play(s) – QB Zevi Eckhaus ($7,700) This will be the first of two meetings between Washington State and Oregon State as the lone Pac-12 members remaining. Eckhaus doesn’t bring much to the table as a passer, as this is not the Washington State Air Raid offense we’ve been accustomed to, but his rushing usage is intriguing since regaining the starting job. Double-digit carries in four of the last five games, including 74 yards and a score vs. Toledo last week. Oregon State is allowing just over 25 FPPG this season to opposing quarterbacks.
Fade – RB Angel Johnson ($4,200) Johnson was thought to be the RB1 by some coming into the season as a former starter with the current coaching staff at South Dakota State, but an offseason injury set him back to where he’s never recovered. Just 2.3 YPC on only 56 attempts this season as the team’s RB3.
Bargain Bin – Would not play anyone below $5.6k on the Wazzu side.
Pivot Play – RB Kirby Vorhees ($6,300) Vorhees came over from South Dakota State alongside Angel Johnson but has established himself as the lead back for the Cougars, particularly of late with 31 rushing attempts in the last two games. Production is sporadic, but Oregon State is a below average run defense, ranked 84th in yards allowed on the ground.
Best of the Rest – WR Josh Meredith ($5,600) Team leader in every major statistical category among Wazzu receivers. And his production uptick has coincided with Eckhaus as the QB1, with at least four receptions in each of the last four games. The extreme risk play among the Wazzu wideouts would be WR Carter Pabst ($3,000), who caught a touchdown with 49 yards receiving in the win over Toledo last week. It appears Pabst’s best production has come in blowout scenarios (Toledo / North Texas games), but his 22.4 YPC average and 23.6 aDOT is intriguing in this matchup. Oregon State is dead last in the country in explosive plays given up in the passing game.
Injury Notes – n/a
Oregon State:
Top Play(s) – RB Anthony Hankerson ($6,400) Hankerson has been dealing with an ankle injury for a portion of the season but is starting to find traction in the run game with 100 yards against Wake Forest, followed by 200+ yards and four touchdowns against FCS opponent Lafayette. I would imagine the bye week also came at a good time for Hankerson to heal up properly for the stretch run here (not that Oregon State has much to play for). Washington State is 63rd in the country in yards allowed on the ground but rank 127th in rush D success rate. Hankerson is one of the better plays on the slate, and we like the running game more if the Beavers get Gabarri Johnson involved as another threat.
Fade – QBs. If we knew Gabarri Johnson would be the confirmed starter with no chance of Maalik Murphy playing, then this would be a different story. Unfortunately, we probably see both quarterbacks which nullifies them from the equation.
Bargain Bin – TE Gabe Milbourn ($3,100) Milbourn has emerged as a legitimate threat in the passing game in the absence of Bryce Caufield with 92 of his 107 receiving yards coming in the last two games, including a touchdown against Lafayette.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Oregon State has a talented trio of wideouts in Trent Walker, David Wells Jr. and Taz Reddicks, all of whom have popped at some point this season. But the QB questions marks make it difficult to project how much Oregon State will actually throw on Saturday night. If the Beavers get the lead at some point, do they just ride Anthony Hankerson and deploy Gabarri Johnson as the running QB. Walker and Wells are the preferred choices of the three, with Taz Reddicks only playing 21% of the team’s snaps against Lafayette.
Injury Notes – WR Darrius Clemons (out), WR Jimmy Valsin (out), TE Bryce Caufield (questionable), RB Salahadin Allah (questionable)
South Carolina vs. Ole Miss
- Point-Spread: Miss -12.5
- O/U Total: 54.5
- Implied Score: Miss 33.5 – SC 21
- Weather: 56 degrees / 16% rain / 3 mph winds
South Carolina:
Top Play(s) – QB LaNorris Sellers ($6,100) I don’t mind Sellers in this scenario as South Carolina cannot win a low-scoring affair and are coming off one of their better offensive performances of the season last week against Alabama. Seven of the 11 passing touchdowns allowed this season by Ole Miss have come in the last three games, including four to Gunner Stockton and two to Washington State’s Zevi Eckhaus. Neither should be confused as Heisman Trophy candidates.
Fade – RBs. South Carolina is the second worst rush offense in the SEC ahead of only LSU and ranked 125th in rush success rate. It would not surprise us if LaNorris Sellers is the Gamecocks leading rusher by the end of the night.
Bargain Bin – WR Vandrevius Jacobs ($3,600) or WR Nyck Harbor ($3,400) The only two options to choose from at receiver, as a distant 1st and 2nd among Gamecock receivers in routes run and five of the team’s six receiving touchdowns. Limit one SC receiver per lineup, and preferably none as LaNorris Sellers can be played solo without stacking.
Injury Notes – WR Jayden Sellers (out)
Ole Miss:
Top Play(s) – RB Kewan Lacy ($7,200) Lacy’s 166 carries rank second in the country among running backs behind only Jacksonville State’s Cam Cook. The next closest RB on Ole Miss is Logan Diggs with 18 attempts. South Carolina is strong against the run, but that volume cannot be denied, with Lacy only competing for carries with Trinidad Chambliss.
Fade – RB Logan Diggs ($4,100) See above.
Bargain Bin – WR Winston Watkins ($3,000) Watkins is being compared as the next Elijah Moore for Ole Miss after his 111-yard performance last week vs. Oklahoma. Watkins was only on the field 40% of the time, splitting snaps with Cayden Lee in the slot, so this is by no means a lock play at min pricing, but seems like a guy Ole Miss is going to want to get on the field more often.
Pivot Play – QB Trinidad Chambliss ($9,300) Projections are strong for Chambliss this week with Ole Miss expected to score close to five touchdowns as a team on Saturday. I was initially cautious of this because South Carolina is only allowing 13.5 FPPG to quarterbacks this season. But then you think back to last week when Chambliss scored 24.9 fantasy points against an Oklahoma defense that allowed just 8.5 FPPG to quarterbacks entering last weekend. Trust Chambliss and trust Lane Kiffin to scheme up a great offensive game plan against any defense.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Four of the Ole Miss wide receivers are projected to score between 8.5 and 9.4 fantasy points this week. So, you can absolutely play a Trinidad Chambliss by himself and not stack any Rebel wideouts. WR Harrison Wallace III ($4,900) seems to be the WR trending upwards most since his midseason lull, targeted 15 times over the last two weeks and played a team-high 77% of snaps vs. Oklahoma.
Injury Notes – n/a
Arizona vs. Colorado
- Point-Spread: Ariz -4.5
- O/U Total: 52.5
- Implied Score: Ariz 28.5 – Col 24
- Weather: 57 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Arizona:
Top Play(s) – QB Noah Fifita ($8,200) There’s teams like Georgia Tech where you know who is getting the ball. And then there’s Arizona who really puts you to work. The one player we know will have the ball in his hands is Fifita, who is coming off of an insane performance against Houston in Week 8, throwing for 269 yards and two scores with a completion rate of 92.3%. Colorado is 104th in pass D success rate and giving up around 25 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks.
Fade – RB Ismail Mahdi ($4,700) Mahdi has been demoted to the backup role since that infamous Oklahoma State game where he was the highest owned running back and then crapped the bed. RB Kedrick Reescano ($5,300) is the preferred choice of the Arizona RBs and is playable against a defense that is 95th in success rate, and 88th in allowing explosive run plays. WR Chris Hunter ($4,200) is also out of the equation as he played just 14% of snaps against Houston and did not record a target.
Bargain Bin –TE Cameron Barmore ($3,000) Barmore was a player I was intrigued by coming into the year as a WR / TE hybrid that would have TE eligibility in college fantasy. Signed as a tight end from Mercy Hurst college, Barmore caught 73 passes and 13 touchdowns last season as the D3 level. This is an extreme longshot play, but we saw Barmore involved in Week 8 against Houston, converting on all four of his targets. Colorado does give up 10.8 FPPG to tight ends this season.
Best of the Rest – WRs. The leading wideout for Arizona has just 19% of the team target share, so if playing Fifita, there is no need to pair him with a Wildcat receiver. In terms of usage, Kris Hutson, Tre Spivey and Javin Whatley were a step above the rest against Houston, playing over 70% of the offensive snaps. Boundary receivers have given Colorado’s secondary the most fits this season – TCU’s Eric McAlister and BYU’s Chase Roberts both had two receiving touchdowns in their matchups with the Buffs. That would favor either WR Kris Hutson ($5,300) or WR Tre Spivey ($3,100). Spivey was second to Hutson in routes run vs. Houston and has caught four touchdowns in the last four games.
Injury Notes – n/a
Colorado:
In the spirit of Halloween, the depth chart for Colorado looks like a body that Jason Voorhees sliced up and threw the body parts all over the house. We’ve got redshirt freshman wide receiver recruits like WR Kam Mikell ($3,000) starting at running back. Multiple true freshmen wide receivers making their first career starts last week against Utah in Quentin Gibson and Quanell Farrakhan Jr. And the Arizona defensive coordinator is expecting to see both Kaidon Salter and Ryan Staub get snaps at QB.
Arizona is already one of the best pass defenses in the country, allowing just 153 yards per game through the air and it’ll be a guessing game at wide receiver. WR Omarion Miller ($4,000) has been the most consistent of the bunch with 50 or more receiving yards in five of his last six games played with three touchdowns in the last three weeks. WR Joseph Williams ($4,800) did not play in Week 9 but was not listed on the injury report so his status will need to be checked pregame.
Injury Notes – WR Hykeem Williams (out), RB Simeon Price (out), WR Sincere Brown (probable)
Mike’s DK Core Four:
- RB Kewan Lacy, Mississippi
- RB Emmett Johnson, Nebraska
- QB Haynes King, Georgia Tech
- WR Braylon Staley, Tennessee
Mike’s FD Core Four:
- RB Jordan Marshall, Michigan
- RB Kewan Lacy, Mississippi
- WR Isaiah Sategna, Oklahoma
- QB Trinidad Chambliss, Mississippi
