TCU vs. Texas Tech
Point-Spread: TT -3
O/U Total: 59.5
Implied Score: TT 31 – TCU 28
Weather: 61 degrees / 0% rain / 10 mph winds
TCU:
Top Play(s) – QB Josh Hoover ($8,100) I like the situation here for Hoover and is probably my top quarterback on the slate. We saw the upside the redshirt freshman gunslinger provides back with his 400+ yard performance three weeks ago against BYU. Obviously, a poor showing for Hoover and the entire TCU offense in the blowout loss to Kansas State, but good spot here coming off the bye with extended time to review the tape and get additional reps in practice. Tech is allowing 24.6 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks this season, most on any team on the slate.
Fade – RB Trey Sanders ($4,100) Not sure what happened after that 3-TD performance in the opener against Colorado, but it’s been the Emani Bailey show ever since. TCU fans are at the point where they’d like to see more of freshman Cam Cook over Sanders.
Bargain Bin – WR Warren Thompson ($4,100) Cheapest realistic option amongst the TCU wideouts. Just sixth on the team overall in targets and receptions, Thompson ran the most routes of any Horned Frog receiver in the loss to Kansas State. And no, that wasn’t strictly in garbage time.
Pivot Play – WR Savion Williams ($6,100) Five different receivers still see significant playing time and there is no target hog here, but Williams seems to have the best connection with Hoover as evidenced by the last two games. 18 of Williams’ 36 targets on the season have come in the last two games alone.
Best of the Rest – RB Emani Bailey ($7,700) Don’t mind pairing Hoover and Bailey in the same lineup together, but side with Hoover as TCU’s top play given the surplus of running back options available on the slate. Bailey still dominates the volume share with 56% of the team’s rushing attempts. Not a must have on the slate as Tech allows just 12.9 FPPG to RB1s and are 49th in rush D success rate. Wouldn’t stack TCU receivers in a lineup, though it would differentiate yourself in a GPP, but WR JP Richardson ($6,700) does lead the team in targets (44) and receptions (30), despite being sixth on the team in routes run. He’s also seen a slight bump with Hoover in as the starter. Tech allows 9.8 FPPG to TE1s with three different tight ends scoring 12 fantasy points or more in their respective matchup. TE Jared Wiley ($4,000) has been targeted at least three times in all but one game this season.
Injury Notes – n/a
Texas Tech:
Top Play(s) – RB Tahj Brooks ($7,400) No brainer here. Five 100-yard rushing performances in the last six weeks. I think OC Zach Kittley here either had an epiphany realizing who is best player on offense was, or he got a stern talking to from the boss to not throw the ball 40 times a game anymore as it wasn’t working. No reason to sit Brooks against a TCU run defense that is mediocre at best across the board, allowing 19 FPPG to opposing RB1s.
Fade – RB Cam’Ron Valdez ($3,900) I know I’m repeating myself at this point with the Texas Tech backfield, but we’ll say it again – the Red Raiders are no longer a 50-50 split as they were a year ago with Brooks and Sa’Rodorick Thompson. A whopping 64% of the team’s rushing attempts belong to Brooks and that number soars to 83% volume share when strictly looking at Tech RBs.
Bargain Bin – WR Coy Eakin ($3,200) Just four receiving yards in the loss to BYU in Week 8, but that’s now consecutive games in which Eakin has run the most routes of any Tech receiver. Posted 102 receiving yards in the loss to Kansas State in Week 7.
Pivot Play – WR Myles Price ($5,600) Noticeable differences in production for Price when Morton has been in the lineup vs. when he’s not. 57% of Price’s receptions and 51% of his targets have come between Week’s 5-7 – all of which were when Morton was under center. Same can’t be said for WR Jerand Bradley ($5,300) who had a combined 38 targets in the first four weeks. Just 20 in the last four games. TCU is only allowing 14 FPPG to opposing WRs this season and the four highest scoring receivers against the Horned Frogs came in just two games – Kansas State and Colorado. Outside of that, TCU’s been good on the back end.
Best of the Rest – QB Behren Morton ($6,500) Morton will be back under center for the Red Raiders after missing the Week 8 contest against BYU. TCU is better at defending the pass vs. the run this season, allowing just 18 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks and are 37th in pass D success rate. Not an intimidating matchup from that aspect, but Morton is averaging just 26.5 attempts per game since taking over as the starter. This is a run-based offense now. WR Xavier White ($3,900) has seen a significant uptick in playing time the last two weeks with over 120 combined receiving yards. He’s overtaken Drae McCray as the second slot receiver next to Myles Price.
Injury Notes – n/a
Wake Forest vs. Duke
Point-Spread: Duke -12.5
O/U Total: 44.5
Implied Score: Duke 28.5 – WF 16
Weather: 47 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
Wake Forest:
Top Play(s) – RB Demond Claiborne ($4,400) Team leader in rushing attempts, yards, and touchdowns (5). I know that Claiborne has played one more game this season than RB Justice Ellison ($4,700), so makes sense that the former is leading the team in all rushing categories, but I’m surprised by the splits in red-zone attempts. Claiborne leads by a wide margin with 24 compared to just seven for Ellison. Could make the argument Ellison is a strong pivot here, but Claiborne gets the slight nod for that reason. Duke has really struggled to defend the run in ACC play, allowing 25 or more fantasy points to Jawhar Jordan, Will Shipley and Audric Estime.
Fade – QB Mitch Griffis ($5,900) This is NOT the matchup to try and fix your woeful passing game struggles on a short week. Duke is allowing just 12.9 FPPG to QB1s and are 18th in EPA per pass play defensively. Griffis has not completed more than eight passes in any of his last two starts.
Bargain Bin – WR Ke’Shawn Williams ($4,500) We’re not investing in any part of the Wake Forest passing game, but if we decided to, it’d be with the cheapest of the starting trio in Williams. Fourth on the team in targets and routes run but leads all receivers with a 71% catch rate and zero drops in 2023.
Pivot Play – Fade all of Wake Forest. When’s the last time we said this about a Dave Clawson-led offense? Lowest implied total on the slate and don’t do much of anything well offensively. 91st and 109th, respectively, in pass and rush success rate.
Best of the Rest – WR Taylor Morin ($5,900) and WR Jahmal Banks ($6,500) We’re not playing any Wake receivers this week with Duke’s strength being the secondary. Among teams playing in Week 10, the Blue Devils have allowed the fifth fewest fantasy points in the country to opposing wide receivers.
Injury Notes – n/a
Duke:
Top Play(s) – QB Riley Leonard ($7,100) Leonard is clearly limited and not the same QB he was prior to the injury, but it’s not like we’re blessed with an abundance of good quarterbacks here. Five quarterbacks have scored 20 or more fantasy points against Wake this season, including Christian Veilleux and AJ Swann. If those two QBs can do it, even a hobbled Riley Leonard can hit 20 fantasy points.
Fade – RB Jaylen Coleman ($4,900) Coleman has battled injury all year, appearing in just three games this season. Seemed to be turning a corner after the Florida State contest with 30 rushing yards on four attempts but was limited to just five offensive snaps against Louisville on Saturday. The game was out of reach, so not sure if this was part strategy to withhold Coleman risking further injury or what. Not worth the risk here as the RB3.
Bargain Bin – TE Jeremiah Hasley ($3,200) The redshirt freshman tight end was not targeted against Louisville but has played over 90% of the offensive snaps in each of the last three games.
Pivot Play – WR Jordan Moore ($5,700) or Jalon Calhoun ($5,700) Probably not stacking the two together given the downward spiral for the Duke offense since the Leonard injury against Notre Dame, but could make the argument given the top-heavy target share. 59% for the duo on the season, and a combined 22 of 26 targets went to Moore/Calhoun last week against Louisville. Six different receivers have scored 20 or more fantasy points against the Demon Deacons this season; five have hit 25 fantasy points or more. You want at least one of Moore or Calhoun in your top lineup.
Best of the Rest – RBs. 55-45 split in the Duke backfield between Jordan Waters and Jaquez Moore. While Waters has been trending downward the last few weeks, he still holds a significant advantage over Moore with a 20-8 edge in red-zone rushing attempts and 9-5 edge in receiving targets.
Injury Notes – n/a
South Alabama vs. Troy
Point-Spread: Troy -5.5
O/U Total: 45.5
Implied Score: Troy 25.5 – USA 20
Weather: 54 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
South Alabama:
Top Play(s) – WR Caullin Lacy ($7,300) Lacy is tied for 14th nationally among receivers in targets (76) and 12th in receptions (55) as he’s been the most consistent option on the South Alabama offense this season. Seven straight 100-yard receiving performances now since the opening week and has been targeted at least seven times in every game. Model of consistency. For as good as the Troy defense is, they’ve allowed six different receivers this season to score 17 fantasy points or more against them.
Fade – QB Carter Bradley ($7,400) I was going to include Bradley as a fade even prior to me noticing that he has a “questionable” designation on DK after injuring his knee last week. Bradley is a good G5 quarterback but doesn’t move the needle from a fantasy perspective because he’s a non-runner. Bad matchup against a Troy defense that is allowing 13.9 FPPG to quarterbacks and 24th in pass D success rate.
Bargain Bin – TE Lincoln Sefcik ($3,400) The WR3 spot for the Jaguars has been an eye sore, so South Alabama will run a ton of 12 personnel with two tight ends on the field. Sefcik has been targeted at least twice in all but one game this season. Troy allows the fewest fantasy points in the country to tight ends, but much of that has to do with the lack of TE usage in the Sun Belt.
Pivot Play – WR Jamaal Pritchett ($5,400) This is not how we projected the South Alabama WR group to play out in the preseason. Projected WR1 Devin Voisin was lost for the year after just one week. Memphis transfer Javon Ivory was expected to make an immediate impact but has just 76 receiving yards on 25 targets. Strong contributions lately from Pritchett, a former walk-on, especially of late with back-to-back 100-yard receiving performances, including a season-high 18 targets last week against Louisiana.
Best of the Rest – La’Damien Webb ($7,000) Webb has dominated the touches in the USA backfield for the last few weeks after splitting carries at the onset of the year. Troy ranks second in the Sun Belt in run defense, allowing 105 yards per contest, but we’ve seen some slippage of late. 175 yards to Army in Week 7 and 161 rushing yards last week to Texas State where RB1 Ismail Mahdi ran for 128 yards on 20 carries. All this to say, I’m not scared off by the matchup here and consider Webb the second-best RB option on the slate behind Tahj Brooks. 15 receptions on 15 targets for Webb in the last four games.
Injury Notes – Pay attention to Bradley’s status pregame.
Troy:
Top Play(s) – RB Kimani Vidal ($7,500) You wonder if South Alabama takes the Texas State approach of “stop Kimani Vidal at all costs and let the other guys beat us.” For the Bobcats, that plan didn’t work out as Gunnar Watson and the Troy passing game did beat them. But Texas State did limit Vidal to just 43 yards on 18 carries in the process. South Alabama ranks 4th in the Sun Belt in run defense but are actually allowing fewer FPPG (9.6) than Troy. Just one running back has scored more than 12 fantasy points against USA this season.
Fade – Backup RBs and TEs Vidal dominates the volume share at 64% so no need to roster a Troy backup RB that won’t have value unless injured occurred. Troy tight ends (five different players) have combined for 39 receptions the last two seasons. The position is not part of this passing scheme.
Bargain Bin – WR Chris Lewis ($4,100) At one point in the year, it seemed as though the 6-foot-4 sophomore was developing into Troy’s WR1. Lewis’ production tapered off but you see the potential between Week’s 2-4 with 101 receiving yards against Western Kentucky and 5-50-1 on five targets in a Week 2 loss to Kansas State. Team-high four receiving touchdowns, and second in targets and routes run.
Pivot Play – QB Gunnar Watson ($5,500) Those that have been playing CFB DFS the last few years know that we’re good for 1 or 2 Gunnar Watson slate-breaking performances a season. While not on the DFS slate last week, Watson did have his best outing of the year with 392 yards and four total touchdowns in the win over Texas State. That was just the second time this season, though, that Watson has surpassed 20 fantasy points in a game. For as good as the South Alabama defense is, the secondary is the sore spot, ranking 82nd in EPA per play defensively through the air and giving up close to 20 FPPG to quarterbacks.
Best of the Rest – WR Jabre Barber ($4,400) Barber is severely underpriced here and would imagine he’s one of the highest owned players on the slate as a result. Three 100-yard receiving performances in the last four weeks and double-digit targets in the last two games. People forget that prior to Barber’s injury last season, he was outproducing Tez Johnson – now at Oregon – in the first six games. 70 combined targets between outside receivers Deshon Stoudemire ($3,800) and Devonte Ross ($3,400) who are the third and fourth options in the Troy passing game.
Injury Notes – n/a