UTEP vs. Rice
Point-Spread: Rice -3.5
O/U Total: 47.5
Implied Score: Rice 25.5 – UTEP 22
Weather: 76 degrees / 76% rain / 9 mph winds
UTEP:
Top Play(s) – WR Tyrin Smith ($6,600) As straightforward as it gets. Fourth in the country in targets (97) and 11th in receptions (56). WR is the position you can deviate from the consensus on the slate with a plethora of options, so Smith isn’t exactly a lock per se, but he’s easily UTEP’s best offensive weapon. Opposing WR1s have absolutely cooked the Rice secondary this year, averaging over 23 FPPG.
Fade – QB Gavin Hardison ($5,900) Fourth-best option of the available QBs on the slate. Rice is 120th nationally in pace and can really slow the game down if they have a lead. Allowing only 23.4 FPPG to opposing QBs.
Bargain Bin – RB Reynaldo Flores ($4,000) So DraftKings still hasn’t corrected this, huh? Probably will be a popular choice on the slate because of his positional designation and PPR scoring format. Flores is second on the team with 42 receptions, averaging 8.6 targets per game. Between Flores and Smith, that twosome combines for 62% of the team’s target share. Only Kelly Akharaiyi ($4,100) is moderately viable with 36 targets.
Injury Notes – n/a. None that I’m aware of.
Rice:
Top Play(s) – WR Luke McCaffrey ($6,600) DFS aside here, but I love how we have a matchup of two teams with fanbases who would rather lose so they’d fire their head coach. There was a bit of a lull in Week’s 5-7 for McCaffrey, but the Rice WR1 has been consistent for much of the year, leading the Owls in targets (71) and receptions (47). Half of his receiving touchdowns in the last two weeks. WR1s for the season are only averaging around 16 fantasy points against the Miners, but we’ve seen five different receivers score 20 points or more against this secondary in conference play.
Fade – RB Ari Broussard ($4,900) The “maybe” former RB1 for Rice had found the end-zone in every game leading up to Week 8 vs. Louisiana Tech but had major issues holding onto the football and didn’t play much in the second half of that contest. Then didn’t play at all vs. Charlotte so we’ll have to monitor his status for Thursday. 5-foot-5, 160-pound senior Cameron Montgomery ($3,200) saw the most playing time vs. the 49ers, rushing for 35 yards on 10 carries. Has he supplanted Broussard fully? FanDuel actually listed Montgomery’s player prop this week at 63.5. No longer on the board, but heavy under play, taking on a UTEP defense that ranks 4th in C-USA and is 51st in rush play success rate. Don’t want to deal with the uncertainty here.
Bargain Bin – See above on Montgomery. Probably a fade still, but he’s super cheap for someone who could be RB1 on a team that is favored. WR3 Isaiah Esdale ($3,100) could also get a look. Former West Virginia transfer sits third on team in targets (37) and receptions (21). Between McCaffrey, Bradley Rozner and Esdale, that trio combines for 70% of the team target share. Factor in TE Jack Bradley ($3,000) and that number jumps to 82%. Beyond that core four, nobody else catches the ball for Rice.
Injury Notes – Check in on Ari Broussard is the only one of note for now.
Appalachian State vs. Coastal Carolina
Point-Spread: App St -2.5
O/U Total: 64.5
Implied Score: App St 33.5 – CCU 31
Weather: 66 degrees / 5% rain / 3 mph winds
Appalachian State:
Top Play(s) – QB Chase Brice ($8,000) Numbers aren’t gaudy, as the Chanticleers are only allowing around 19 FPPG to opposing QBs on the year. But that doesn’t tell the whole story. Coastal is dead last in the conference in yards allowed per game through the air and 120th in pass play success rate defensively. Don’t have projections as of writing this, but we’re seeing props come in for Brice around 260 yards in what looks to be a potential shootout. Brice is a lock for me here.
Fade – WRs. You’ll have to roster someone to win a GPP, but good luck guessing who. No App State player has more than 16% target share on the season with five wideouts and two tight ends playing between 30 and 60% of the offensive snaps vs. Georgia State in Week 8. FWIW – when everyone is healthy, and they appear to be, Dashaun Davis, Christan Horn and Christian Wells are the top three here. I would not roster more than one in my lineups personally.
Bargain Bin – WR Dalton Stroman ($3,600) Talented athlete at 6-foot-4 that looks to be a building block for the App State future offensively. Still in the WR rotation and is not a starter, but three touchdowns in the last five games. GPP play only.
Injury Notes – n/a. I think, offensively, App State is as healthy as they’ve been all year. Helps when you get three bye weeks during the year. How in the hell did the App State AD manage to get both Robert Morris and the Citadel on the schedule in the same season?
Coastal Carolina:
Top Play(s) – WR Jared Brown ($6,100) Brown has arguably been Coastal Carolina’s best offensive player despite Sam Pinckney ($6,600) leading the Chants in targets for the year. Averaging 23.6 FPPG over the last five weeks and got in the mix as a rusher vs. Marshall with 34 yards on five attempts. Averaging 7.4 targets per game over this last stretch.
Fade – RBs. On paper, this is actually the best matchup where App State is eighth in the Sun Belt in rush defense and 97th in rush play success rate. But honest question – who are you banking on in the CCU backfield? Reese White is averaging 6.1 YPC on the year but seen just 16 attempts the last two games. CJ Beasley has come back to Earth with less than three yards per carry the last two weeks. Team’s leading ball-carrier against Marshall was backup QB Bryce Carpenter who is now being utilized in a Taysom Hill-like role to boost the offensive creativity. Too messy for my taste.
Bargain Bin – TE Jacob Jenkins ($3,900) There is no Isaiah Likely for CCU, but tight end Jacob Jenkins has now scored a touchdown in all four games played this season. Played 60 of 72 offensive snaps vs. Marshall last week, though it appears starter Xavier Gravette did not play. Something to watch (we won’t find out news).
Injury Notes – No updates that I’ve seen as of Tuesday regarding Braydon Bennett or Aaron Bedgood. With regards to Bennett, we know HC Jamey Chadwell did not rule him out for the season with comments in the last few weeks, so “maybe” there is a chance he plays Thursday?
Massachusetts vs. Connecticut
Point-Spread: UConn -15.5
O/U Total: 47.5
Implied Score: UConn 28 – UMass 12.5
Weather: 58 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Massachusetts:
Sitting here at 4:53 am on a Thursday morning writing up UMass for a DFS slate and now contemplating my life choices why I decided on this path. RB Ellis Merriweather ($4,000) is the only name of note here, getting a season-high 23 carries last week against New Mexico State. With the season in the dumps, time for the Minutemen to do what was most successful a year ago and ride their horse. 21.2 FPPG allowed to opposing RB1s this season for UConn, the 11th highest mark in the country.
Connecticut:
Top Play(s) – RBs. Big question here is which one. Victor Rosa has been the starter of late due to injuries in the backfield, averaging 16 carries per game over the last three weeks. The wrench here is Devontae Houston has practiced on Tuesday and is expected to play. At what capacity is unknown. But the last time we saw Houston on the field, he rushed for 100 yards in back-to-back games vs. Fresno State and FIU. Could be a GPP winner potentially against a UMass rush defense that is 101st in the country (funny to think that’s actually a significant improvement over recent years).
Fade – QB Zion Turner ($7,000) The 3-star freshman could be a good one in time, and has shown improvements of late, completing 70% of his throws the last three games, but still averages just 9.7 FPPG on the year. He’s at least fourth among the available QBs on the slate. Connecticut is 9th nationally in rush play percentage in 2022, keeping the ball on the ground 64% of the time.
Bargain Bin – WR Cam Ross ($3,000) Three injuries to monitor for UConn as we state below. Ross has played in two games over the last three seasons, so who knows how healthy he’ll be entering Friday evening. But when at full strength, Ross has proven to be a dynamic talent, recording 60 receptions and four touchdowns back in 2019. Admittedly, I don’t follow UConn football close enough to know where Ross would currently stand in the pecking order at WR between starters Aaron Turner, Kevens Clercius and Keelan Marion, but he is cheap. Smart move might be to avoid all given how much Connecticut keeps the ball on the ground.
Injury Notes –Keelan Marion, Cam Ross and the aforementioned Devontae Houston all practiced on Tuesday and “could” be available on Friday.
Duke vs. Boston College
Point-Spread: Duke -9.5
O/U Total: 47.5
Implied Score: Duke 28.5 – BC 19
Weather: 61 degrees / 0% rain / 10 mph winds
Duke:
Top Play(s) – QB Riley Leonard ($7,800) We’ve officially hit the month of November and that means it’s near impossible to find Duke football coverage with the start of the college basketball season just days away. Leonard has been outstanding as a first-year starter, ranking fifth in the ACC in total offense, third in completion percentage, and first on the team in rushing yards (481) and TDs (8). Might be the top QB on the slate because of his running ability. BC is allowing 27 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season.
Fade – WR Jalon Calhoun ($5,500) Would be more of a pivot play vs. a fade. Calhoun only played 20 snaps against Miami in Week 8 – I believe because of a first half fumble (but maybe injury?). No WR has more than 22% target share, so they do spread it around, and only threw the ball 24 times in the route of the Hurricanes last week. Expecting Friday to be ugly as well, so may not need to invest in a Duke WR.
Bargain Bin – TE Nicky Dalmolin ($3,800) Dalmolin has played more offensive snaps this season for Duke than any other skill position player outside of QB Riley Leonard, and has been more involved in the passing game this last month and a half with at least two catches in each of the previous five outings.
Injury Notes – RB Jaylen Coleman ($5,200) Duke’s RB1 to start the season has missed the last three games. Can’t confirm his status because HC Mike Elko mentioned Coleman was day-to-day back in mid-October but missing three games isn’t day-to-day. RB Jordan Waters ($4,900) is the safe choice, leading the team with 31% volume share in the backfield, but if this gets out of hand against BC, expect to see some of the younger options in 3-star freshman Terry Moore ($3,000) and backup Jaquez Moore ($4,100). For as bad as BC has been in 2022, their rush defense is the strength of the team, ranking 37th in rush play success rate.
Boston College:
Top Play(s) – WR Zay Flowers ($6,300) For as bad as the BC offense is, I think Flowers still is a lock here. One of the highest target shares in the country at 33% and tied for 17th nationally with 53 receptions. The secondary is where Duke struggles defensively, ranking 102nd in success rate.
Fade – RBs. Know what the prop market set Pat Garwo’s ($6,600) rushing number at? 33.5. Might actually be an over spot where we have him projected at 56.0 yards, but speaks to how dreadful the BC rush offense has been in 2022. BC ranks 130th in line yards and stuff rate, and 124th in rush play success rate. Zero reason to play him or any other BC running back on the slate. I’ll make one argument in favor of Garo – 14 of his 22 targets in the passing game this season have come in the last three weeks. He’s now tripled his targets from a year ago.
Bargain Bin – WR Joseph Griffin Jr. ($3,000) Perfect time of year for a team with nothing to play for to get some of the underclassmen an extended look. That applies to the 6-foot-4 freshman Joseph Griffin Jr. who’s posted 50 or more yards in back-to-back games on 12 combined targets. Griffin has played as many offensive snaps as Flowers has the last two weeks.
Injury Notes – QB Phil Jurkovec ($6,500) Jurkovec is questionable to play on Friday, and I wouldn’t be shocked if BC holds him out to get an extended look at backup Emmett Moorhead ($5,900) to see what the Eagles have for 2023.
Oregon State vs. Washington
Point-Spread: UW -4.5
O/U Total: 47.5
Implied Score: UW 29.5 – Oreg St 25
Weather: 50 degrees / 95% rain / 13 mph winds
Oregon State:
Top Play(s) – RB Damien Martinez ($3,000) Another slate lock as the DraftKings computers take weeks to adjust their pricing. The 3-star freshman had been trending upwards for a few weeks before the eventual breakout of 178 yards and three scores vs. Colorado. Jam Griffin and Deshaun Fenwick are still around, but Martinez is the clear-cut RB1 here moving forward. The Huskies’ strength on defense is against the run, allowing 15.6 FPPG to opposing RB1s, but Oregon State has the offensive line to combat that, ranking 39th in Line Yards and 40th in success rate.
Fade – QB Ben Gulbranson ($7,200) Simply put, I don’t see any reason on this slate to play any QB outside of Michael Penix Jr. and Riley Leonard. 15 projected fantasy points at $7,200 is an automatic removal from my queue on any slate. The number of times an Oregon State QB has scored more than 20 fantasy points this season? Once. Add in 95% chance rain and wind. No thanks.
Bargain Bin – TE Jack Velling ($3,400) I don’t view any Oregon State receiver as a must-play as they’re all overpriced on a team that spreads the ball around as much as the Beavers do. 6-foot-4 freshman tight end Jack Velling has done well the last few weeks in place of the injured Luke Musgrave, with 50 yards or more in the last two games. Had a 60-yard touchdown reception in the win over Colorado.
Injury Notes – QB Chance Nolan ($7,500) has been ruled out.
Washington:
Top Play(s) – QB Michael Penix Jr. ($8,600) Who else ya gunna start? Do I have concerns, sure. Oregon State is 34th in pass play success rate, 10th in pass explosiveness allowed. The Beavers shut down Caleb Williams earlier in the year and we have a chance at a monsoon. But again, who else are you going to start with confidence? WR Rome Odunze ($8,100) now leads the Pac-12, averaging 108 yards per game and 10.8 targets. Wide receiver is typically where you can stray from the pack in GPPs, but Odunze is far and away the best WR on the slate.
Fade – RB Wayne Taulapapa ($6,800) Not entirely sure if there was an injury, but it appears Taulapapa has lost his starting job to Cameron Davis ($5,100). Just 19 offensive snaps for the former Virginia transfer in the Week 8 win over California, while Davis has now found the end-zone six times in the last three weeks. Washington should be able to control the line of scrimmage when on offense, facing an Oregon State defense who is 92nd in rush play success rate. Similar to Pat Garwo, we’ll make one argument in favor of Wayne T – 20 of his 27 targets in the passing game have come in the last month. We’re seeing the running backs settle into their primary roles within the scheme.
Bargain Bin – TE Devin Culp ($3,000) Won’t get too risky here with a Washington pass-catcher that is the fourth option in a game where there will be inclimate weather and the Huskies are favored. But Culp has seen an uptick in production with 14 of his 19 receptions coming in the last four weeks. Just two tight ends have scored double-digit fantasy points on Oregon State in 2022.
Injury Notes – n/a
