Ball State vs. Kent State
Point-Spread: Kent St -6.5
O/U Total: 62.5
Implied Score: Kent St 34.5 – Ball St 28
Weather: 56 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Ball State:
Top Play(s) – WR Jayshon Jackson ($5,500) and RB Carson Steele ($6,400) I’ll be looking to fit both in my lineup tonight. Steele accounts for 74% of the team’s backfield volume share with all eight of Ball State’s rushing touchdowns on the year. Kent State is actually one of the better run defenses in the MAC, only allowing 14 FPPG to opposing RB1s. But volume, volume, volume. We know without a shadow of doubt that Steele is touching the ball 15-20 times. Jackson is way too cheap for a WR with 29% target share, playing the new Justin Hall role in the slot. Jackson did not finish the game against Eastern Michigan but we assume he’s good to go. Kent State has allowed the eighth most fantasy points in the country to opposing WR1s.
Fade – QB John Paddock ($6,800) The fourth option of the available quarterbacks on the slate. HC Mike Neu, in his weekly presser discussing the matchup, came flat out and said the Paddock has been pressing and that’s the cause for the recent struggles with the Ball State passing game. That said, there are three arguments in favor of Paddock. Touchdown underdog so Ball State will have to throw. The Cardinals are also 12th nationally in pass attempts per game. Lastly, Kent State is allowing 34.7 FPPG to opposing QBs this season, the second worst number in the country. And now I’m talking myself into Paddock as a pivot play.
Bargain Bin – TE Brady Hunt ($3,400) Tight end usage had been obsolete since Mike Neu took over as HC. Not the case in 2022 where Hunt and Tanner Koziol have combined for 44 receptions and five of the team’s 14 receiving touchdowns. Hunt gets a boost should Koziol be unavailable.
Injury Notes – We posted in the Discord on Monday that the two names to watch here are WR Yo’Heinz Tyler ($5,100) and TE Tanner Koziol ($3,600). Tyler did not play in Week 8 vs. Eastern Michigan, while Koziol played a handful of snaps before leaving due to injury.
Kent State:
Top Play(s) – RB Marquez Cooper ($4,900) 100% ownership. And its not even that Cooper is the greatest play in the world, but this pricing is ridiculous for a running back with 59% market share in the Kent State backfield. RB1s are allowing 21.0 FPPG against Ball State this season, 12th highest mark in the country.
Fade – WRs beyond Devontez Walker ($5,300) Cephas being out would change the dynamic a bit, but there hasn’t been a relevant Kent State receiver this entire season beyond those two. 68% target share between the two. WR1s are averaging 20.7 FPPG this season against Ball State, but the Cardinals are also 25th in explosiveness allowed defensively against the pass.
Bargain Bin – WR Jashaun Poke ($4,500) That said, Poke would be the extreme longshot play if Cephas were out. Came back from injury in Week 6 and has posted 50+ receiving yards in his last two games played. I’ll reiterate – extreme longshot.
Injury Notes – Posted in our Discord channel the video presser of HC Sean Lewis discussing the injuries to both QB Collin Schlee ($7,800) and WR Dante Cephas ($6,200). From my untrained ear, it sounded like Schlee would be closer to playing than Cephas, as the QB1 really needed rest more than anything. Cephas was getting X-Rays done for his undisclosed injury as of last week. No updates as of Monday.
Buffalo vs. Ohio
Point-Spread: Buff -2.5
O/U Total: 58.5
Implied Score: Buff 30.5 – Ohio 28
Weather: 59 degrees / 0% rain / 2 mph winds
Buffalo:
Sat here thinking about this, and I don’t have a top play for Buffalo. WR Quian Williams ($5,600) is going to be popular on the slate, leading the Bulls with 28% target share and 42 receptions. Are those dominant numbers that make Williams a must? Absolutely not, as Buffalo has more weapons at WR this season with former Louisville transfer Justin Marshall ($5,000) who leads the team in TDs, and sophomore slot man Jamari Gassett ($4,400) who has a 78% conversion rate on 32 targets. His 2.19 yards per route run is the highest number of any Buffalo receiver. QB Cole Snyder ($7,400) is the top pivot QB if fading Rourke or Schlee. Ohio is 118th in pass play success rate defensively and allowing 28.9 FPPG to opposing QB1s.
The backfield is where this team is messy. A near 50-50 split in attempts between Ron Cook Jr. ($6,600) and Mike Washington ($5,300) as both have had their individual moments throughout the year. Cook Jr. was the hot hand last time out with 118 yards on 18 carries in the win over Toledo. He’s the safest bet, with double-digit carries in all but one game this season and is the best pass-catcher of any RB on the team. Neither player will see a ton of ownership today with Carson Steele and Marquez Cooper being in every lineup. Advanced metrics actually like the Ohio run defense better than the pass defense, but the Bobcats are allowing 21.3 FPPG to opposing RB1s, tied for the eighth highest number in the nation.
Injury Notes – n/a
Ohio:
Top Play(s) – WR Sam Wiglusz ($5,900) The former Ohio State transfer has been exceptional. Double-digit fantasy points in each of the last five games with five touchdowns in that span. Seven different receivers have scored 10 or more fantasy points against Buffalo this season, but nobody has scored 20 or more vs. the Bulls. In total, WR1s are averaging just 14.3 FPPG. We’ll see Ohio throw the ball 30+ times tonight, just a matter of how effective they are.
Fade – QB Kurtis Rourke ($7,100) All things level, Collin Schlee would be the best QB play on the slate. The injury shadow probably means Rourke is in the top spot for me. This is really not a fade play, but more a pivot. I’ll note that the Buffalo secondary is as good as any in the conference. The Bulls lead the conference in interceptions forced and have held the last four opponents to under 55% completion rate. No MAC opponent has thrown more than one touchdown in any matchup with Buffalo.
Bargain Bin – WR Miles Cross ($4,700) Cross probably shouldn’t be cheaper than WR James Bostic ($5,400), as he has a significant advantage in targets (42) and receptions (28). And there is no difference between the two in offensive snaps played and routes run this season. Cross has simply been more effective.
Injury Notes – RB Sieh Bangura ($6,200) Bangura did not finish the game against NIU in Week 8, leaving with injury. As of Monday last week, HC Tim Albin said that Bangura was considered day-to-day. Still at practice but would see about his status as the week went along. Stay tuned! 220-pound sophomore RB Nolan McCormick ($4,500) would start in his place, and probably gets looks regardless of Bangura’s status, now averaging 7.6 attempts per contest.
