Northern Illinois vs. Central Michigan
Point-Spread: NIU -3.5
O/U Total: 46.5
Implied Score: NIU 25 – CMU 21.5
Weather: 32 degrees / 11% rain / 9 mph winds
Northern Illinois:
Top Play(s) – RB Antario Brown ($5,700) Wave of emotions when you’re a college fantasy owner with Antario Brown on your roster. One week he’s rushing for 280 and four scores, and the next he’s running up the gut into nine-man boxes because of a coaching staff that has zero creativity with its play calling. Simply put, the matchup with CMU dictates starting Brown as the Chips are one of the worst rush defenses in the country, allowing 144 yards per game on the ground, are 124th in rush D success rate and five different running backs have scored 19 or more fantasy points against them in 2023.
Fade – WR Davis Patterson ($4,800) Tough to consider anyone on a two-game slate a fade, but Patterson is the NIU player I’m least interested in. Third on the team in targets (24) and receptions (14) without a touchdown this season. Patterson does lead the team in routes run but his playing time saw a slight dip last week as NIU featured more two-tight end sets with Grayson Barnes ($4,100). An athletic 6-foot-5 JUCO transfer, Barnes is actually listed as one of the starting receivers this week on the gameday depth chart.
Bargain Bin – WR Jalen Johnson ($3,700) A 6-foot-3 freshman, Johnson saw his most playing time of the season against Eastern Michigan in Week 8, seeing 54 of 72 offensive snaps and finishing with four receptions on six targets.
Pivot Play – RB Gavin Williams ($5,100) Think of Antario Brown as the G5 version of Utah’s Ja’Quinden Jackson. Talented when on the field, but probably enters the medical tent at least once a game with some sort of nagging injury. Frustrating as a fantasy owner. We do have a higher projection for Williams this week, the former Iowa transfer, mostly because of his usage in the passing game with seven receptions on seven targets in the last two games. When everyone is healthy, Antario Brown >>>> Gavin Williams.
Best of the Rest – WR Trayvon Rudolph ($5,700) We know Rudolph has GPP winning upside as displayed back in his freshman season with 306 yards and three touchdowns in a 21-target performance against Kent State in 2021. Health has been the biggest deterrent, playing rotational snaps in the first month of this season after missing all of 2022 due to injury. With that said, a season-high 31 routes run and 13 targets last week in the win over Eastern Michigan. His running mate, QB Rocky Lombardi ($6,500) is probably my least favorite QB option of the bunch, failing to score 16 fantasy points in all but one game this season. If there was a game for Lombardi to succeed, though, this would be it. CMU is 124th in EPA per pass play defensively. The Chips allow just 19.3 FPPG to quarterbacks, but those QBs are averaging over 8 fantasy points more than their seasonal averaging when playing CMU.
Injury Notes – WR Kacper Rutkiewicz ($6,200) It wouldn’t be MACtion without us having to depend on local student beat writers or obscure team message boards trying to track down injury information. Luckily, NIU does have an active message board that will hopefully have boots on the ground to see if Kacper Rutkiewicz is returning from an undisclosed injury that’s caused him to miss the last two games. FWIW – he is not on the depth chart for this week.
Central Michigan:
Top Play(s) – QB Jase Bauer ($7,500) The shine has worn off for Bauer since taking over for Bert Emanuel, now failing to score more than 20 fantasy points in his last four starts since his 42-point outburst in overtime against South Alabama in Week 5. No confirmation on this at all, but you really start to wonder if CMU is considering a possible change back to Emanuel, especially considering what he did last year in MACtion. Bauer projects well because he also possesses some rushing upside, but this is a dismal CMU passing game facing one of the better secondaries in the conference. The Huskies allow just 17 FPPG to quarterbacks and are 11th nationally in pass D success rate.
Fade – WR Jalen McGaughy ($3,300) The projected WR1 for CMU entering the season has barely made an impact this season despite playing in six of seven games in 2023. Just 10 targets and the sixth most routes run among Chip wideouts. Fellow transfer Thomas Pannunzio (Colorado State) has also made minimal impact with just six catches in eight games played.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Not interested in any CMU players under $4.5k.
Pivot Play – Marion Lukes ($5,500) This play is very much dependent on if Myles Bailey is out or not, because it’s a 55-45 split backfield if both players are healthy. I would say the high-level numbers paint a different picture than the advanced metrics here. NIU is giving up only 12.2 FPPG to opposing RB1s in 2023, but 111th or worse in all major rush defense data points like EPA and success rates. Lukes shoots up the board if we get word Bailey is sitting again.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Minimal interest in the CMU receivers here, not only because of how woeful this passing attack has been in MAC play, but how good the NIU secondary is performing. Among teams playing in Week 10, NIU allows the fourth fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers – in the same tier as Florida State, Duke, and Michigan. Here’s a stat the could intrigue you with WR Tyson Davis ($5,400) though. Of the four highest scoring receivers to face NIU this season, they’ve all been slot receivers. Davis, who had a team-high eight targets against Ball State, plays in the slot 96% of the time. WR Chris Parker ($4,800) leads the team in routes run, while WR Jesse Prewitt III ($5,300) is tops in targets, receptions, and touchdowns. Those are the only three pass-catchers I’ll consider from CMU.
Injury Notes – RB Myles Bailey ($5,600) Likely a game-time decision, or at least we’ll find out by game time (hopefully) if Bailey is available or not after missing the Ball State game in Week 8. Bailey is listed on the team depth chart for this week.
Buffalo vs. Toledo
Point-Spread: Tol -14.5
O/U Total: 52.5
Implied Score: Tol 33.5 – UB 19
Weather: 36 degrees / 21% rain / 11 mph winds
Buffalo:
Top Play(s) – RB Ron Cook Jr. ($5,400) To be honest, I’ve kind of tuned out Buffalo this season as a CFF analyst because they don’t have a single relevant player that is roster worthy. Cook Jr. has been the closest thing to that distinction, leading the team with 366 rushing yards, five touchdowns, while also adding 19 receptions on 22 targets in the passing game. Of the defensive components for Toledo, the run defense is the issue, ranked 81st in rush play success rate and allowing 16.2 FPPG to RB1s.
Fade – RB Mike Washington ($5,300) Still listed as second on the depth chart behind Cook, but his carries have diminished slightly since the first month of the season and has now averaged under four yards a carry in each of the last three games. Has Washington been surpassed on the depth chart by the name below?
Bargain Bin – RB Jacqez Barksdale ($4,100) As a CFF analyst you’re expected to know 98% of the offensive players in college football. Barksdale is in that 2% as a name I’ve never heard of before. But looks like the Buffalo coaching staff needs to get him on the field more, now averaging 8 yards a carry in the last two weeks, including 84 yards against Kent State. The concern here is that Buffalo RBs are game-scripted out as a two-touchdown underdog, and Barksdale realistically could still be the third option in the Buffalo RB pecking order.
Pivot Play – WR Marlyn Johnson ($5,200) Toledo doesn’t allow a lot of points to wideouts, but big-bodied receivers on the outside have given the Rockets the most fits this season – Anthony Simpson (UMass), Pat Bryant (Illinois) to name a few. Johnson is tied for the team lead in receptions and targets, with a team-high four touchdowns.
Best of the Rest – QB Cole Snyder ($6,700) Snyder is a distant third at QB and possibly fourth given the matchup. Toledo is 15th nationally in pass D success rate and allows just 14.5 FPPG to opposing QBs. That’s just one point higher than Snyder’s season average. He’s a non-runner with zero weapons at receiver. No thanks. WR Cole Harrity ($4,600) is a close second to Johnson in routes run for Buffalo, while tied in both targets and receptions. True possession receiver with an aDOT of just 7.5 yards. WR Boobie Curry ($4,400) and WR Darrell Harding Jr. ($4,200) are former P5 transfers that are rotational pieces opposite Johnson on the outside. Curry had a season-high 8 targets against Kent State but did next to nothing with that volume.
Injury Notes – n/a
Toledo:
Top Play(s) – QB Dequan Finn ($8,300) Only reliable fantasy quarterback on the slate. 100% exposure. The only risk involved is injury, which Finn has dealt with multiple times during his college career. Outside of that, he’s far and away the best option among the four QBs.
Fade – Backup RBs. Between Finn, Stuart, and Boone, they accounted for 100% of the team’s rushing attempts in Week 8. If Stuart is healthy, there isn’t another RB on the roster we need to consider. And yes, I’m considering Boone / Stuart as co-starters.
Bargain Bin – TE Anthony Torres ($4,000) Wide receiver outside of Newton and Vandeross has been a sore spot for the Rockets this season as they lack a true difference maker on the outside with size and speed. Torres ranks just fifth on the team in targets but is third in routes run and did find the end-zone against Miami (Ohio). Buffalo hasn’t allowed a tight end to score more than 8 fantasy points against them this season but haven’t faced many/any teams that utilize the position in the passing game.
Pivot Play – RB Jacquez Stuart ($5,200) Most will be on Peny Boone today, but Stuart was the team’s opening week starter, and might still hold that distinction had injuries not derailed his year. Stuart has been in the lineup the last four games but has come to the sidelines at multiple points in that stretch and hit the medical bike. As we saw against Miami (Ohio), this is a split backfield when both are healthy. RB Peny Boone ($6,100) The former Maryland transfer was a collassal bust in college fantasy a year ago, thinking he’d step right in for Bryant Koback and continue Toledo’s streak of high-end running back production. Turns out we were a year off as Boone has topped 100 rushing yards in five of the last six games. Coincidentally, the sixth came last week with a healthy Jacquez Stuart. Rush volume didn’t change much for Boone, though, as he still notched 17 carries, but was limited to just 4.2 YPC by a strong Miami (Ohio) run defense. Buffalo is not Miami (Ohio) against the run, ranking 98th in EPA per rush play defensively and allowing 16 FPPG to RB1s.
Best of the Rest – WR Jerjuan Newton ($7,000) 50% of Toledo’s passing touchdowns this season have gone to Newton who leads the team in every receiving category outside of yards. Buffalo is allowing just 12.6 FPPG to opposing WR1s but those receivers are averaging 6.2 fantasy points above their season average when facing the Bulls. WR Junior Vandeross III ($5,500) has emerged as the team’s second option in the passing game outside of Newton as the duo combines for 41% of the team’s target share. WRs Jaden Dottin ($4,300) and Larry Stephens ($3,700) are rotational pieces that you could mix into your lineups, but the vast majority of targets go to the top two receivers.
Injury Notes – n/a
Ball State vs. Bowling Green
Point-Spread: BG -5.5
O/U Total: 39.5
Implied Score: BG 22.5 – BSU 17
Weather: 39 degrees / 0% rain / 9 mph winds
Bowling Green:
Top Play(s) – QB Kiael Kelly ($6,500) Kelly gets top billing over Marquez Cooper because of the limitations of the other QBs on the slate. Not that rostering Kelly is a bulletproof strategy, as he’s a very limited passer himself, but his ability on the ground separates him from the pack. Layne Hatcher is still lurking around, so we can’t totally rule out the possibility of two quarterbacks seeing the field, but comments from the coaching staff two weeks ago indicate they’re committed to Kelly moving forward. 33 combined rushing attempts in the last two games.
Fade – Wide Receivers. A grand total of 28 passing attempts in the last two weeks with Kelly at the helm. When Ball State does drop back to pass, the Cardinals are 117th in EPA per play and 118th in success rate. WR Qian Magwood ($6,000) converted on all seven of his targets last week for a grand total of 49 yards. This is simply a run-first offense now.
Bargain Bin – TE Tanner Koziol ($4,000) The projected top 12 CFF tight end in the offseason has not lived up to the billing, but through little fault of his own. Just a bit surprising that he’s been limited to just 242 receiving yards without his partner in crime at tight end in Brady Hunt who has not played this season. Still leads the team targets, receptions and routes run.
Pivot Play – WR Ahmad Edwards ($4,000) Edwards has played over 90% of the offensive snaps for Ball State the last two weeks, so he’s on the field a ton, but minimal production after the QB change.
Best of the Rest – RB Marquez Cooper ($7,400) Ball State is officially an RPO-heavy offense now with Kelly at the helm, meaning we’ll see likely a 65-35 run to pass ratio from the Cardinals’ offense on Wednesday. Cooper’s fantasy owners have been through a wave of emotions this season with his fluctuating workload as he’s not seen the consistent carries that Carson Steele received a year ago. 42 carries in the last two weeks with Kelly under center is promising for his outlook, facing a below-average Bowling Green run defense. Stacking Kelly and Cooper together is the best path to success on this slate.
Injury Notes – n/a
Bowling Green:
Top Play(s) – RB Terion Stewart ($8,000) There are four potentially solid RB options on the slate, so I can see having a lineup or two without Stewart in it, but that’s it. Four 100-yard rushing performances in the last five games for Stewart who is delivering on the promise he showed three years ago as a freshman. The only down week was the matchup against Miami (Ohio) who have a top half rush defense in the MAC. Ball State ranks as the No. 2 run defense in the MAC but are allowing 18 FPPG to RB1s this season. Guaranteed volume here as Stewart is the centerpiece of the offense.
Fade – QBs. Just look at the numbers in the last two games. I’d imagine Connor Bazelak’s current standing as the team’s QB1 is teetering. But I’m also not sure there is a better option on the roster either. Let this image (link) do the talking of just how bad the Bowling Green QB has been this season.
Bargain Bin – TE Harold Fannin Jr. ($3,700) Talented sophomore that has been hampered by poor quarterback play. But Fannin doesn’t always have to catch passes to produce results. Remember back to last season with his four rushing touchdowns on 10 carries, three of which came during MACtion. Fannin hasn’t found paydirt on the ground in 2023, but three of his four rushing attempts this season have come in the last two games.
Pivot Play – RB Taron Keith ($6,000) Keith doesn’t get many carries, but truly is one of the best pass-catching backs at the G5 level, ranking second on the team with 24 receptions on 35 targets. $6k for a backup RB on this slate is a tough pill to swallow, but that just means very little ownership. Preferable on DK with the scoring format.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Tough to get on board here with any Bowling Green receivers given the piss poor performance of the quarterbacks recently. Which is a shame because Bowling Green does have talent at the receiver position, and Ball State gives up a bunch of fantasy points to wide receivers – 24th most among teams playing this week. Bowling Green has settled on a top trio here with very little rotation, so you’re selecting one of Odieu Hillaire ($4,000), Abdul-Fatai Ibrahim ($3,900), or Austin Osborne ($3,800) – please do not stack multiple BGSU receivers in a lineup together.
Injury Notes – n/a
Kent State vs. Akron
Point-Spread: Akron -3.5
O/U Total: 39.5
Implied Score: Akr 21.5 – KSU 18
Weather: 35 degrees / 0% rain / 8 mph winds
Kent State:
Top Play(s) – WR Chrishon McCray ($5,700) Just like every other wide receiver on this slate, McCray has been let down by the play of his quarterback. An astounding 34% target share, one of the highest in the country, with over a third of the team’s receiving yards as a redshirt freshman. All that and McCray is averaging just 12.1 FPPG because his quarterback(s) can’t get him the football consistently with just a 52% catch rate (two drops).
Fade – QBs. Copy and paste what I wrote about Bowling Green and apply it here. 269 combined passing yards the last two games as we’ve seen both Tommy Ulatowski and Michael Alaimo get playing time. Kent State has been so far off the radar this season from a fantasy standpoint that I truly don’t know what the current situation looks like. And its not worth looking either as the Flashes are 119th in pass play success rate and average just 142 yards per game through the air.
Bargain Bin – WR Jameel Gardner Jr ($3,900) Just three wide receivers played against Buffalo in the Week 8 matchup and the trio of McCray, Gardner Jr and WR Luke Floriea ($4,800) rarely left the field. The 6-foot-1 redshirt freshman now has 15 targets in the last two games alone. If Trell Harris is available, it appears as though Gardner is the receiver who would see his playing time take a hit.
Pivot Play – RB Jaylen Thomas ($5,000) I would consider Thomas the fourth-best RB option on the slate, but he’s become a volume eater in the Kent State backfield with 64 carries in the last three games. Backup RBs for the Flashes have combined for just 10 attempts in that same span. Matchup does favor Thomas here as Akron is allowing 26 FPPG this season to RB1s – one of the highest marks in the country.
Best of the Rest – n/a. Not considering anyone on Kent State that hasn’t been highlighted in this writeup.
Injury Notes – WR Trell Harris ($3,700) Harris did not record a snap in Week 8 against Buffalo, but does not have an injury tag on DK. No two-deep for Kent State this week so this is something we’ll have to find out prior to kickoff.
Akron:
Top Play(s) – RB Lorenzo Lingard ($6,700) To answer your first question, yes this is a slate where you can consider playing four running backs. How good a matchup is this for Lingard, the former 5-star Florida transfer? Kent State does allow close to 18 FPPG to RB1s this season but rank just 62nd in EPA per run play defensively so they’re not a push over in the trenches. His usage in the passing game boosts his value, though, as Lingard has caught at least two passes in all but one game in 2023.
Fade – RB Drake Anderson ($5,400) Pretty straight forward. Running back is the strength of the slate, and there is a 20-carry per game RB in Jaylen Thomas that is cheaper than Anderson…a backup.
Bargain Bin – TJ Banks ($4,000) Fourth on the team in targets (19), third in routes run and third among Akron offensive skill position players in offensive snaps played this season.
Pivot Play – WR Daniel George ($5,500) One of the bigger CFF busts this season, George is starting to hit his stride from a volume standpoint with 23 targets in the last two games alone. Minimal production has come with that, but maybe we will see a breakout performance here in the coming weeks. Seven different receivers have scored 17 or more fantasy points against Kent State this season.
Best of the Rest – QB Jeff Undercuffler ($6,200) If you don’t take the four-RB route, Undercuffler will be the second option at quarterback behind Kiael Kelly. Though we should note that all four running backs currently have a higher projection. Non-runner, but Undercuffler has two of the better MAC receivers at his disposal, facing a Kent State secondary that allows 21.3 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. WR Alex Adams ($5,400) went from 855 receiving yards and nine touchdowns last year to just two TDs in six games in 2023, as his production fell off considerably after DJ Irons was lost for the year. Adams’ numbers were always going to be down in non-con facing Kentucky and Indiana, but just three receptions for 23 yards in two MAC games is most surprising. WR Jasaiah Gathings ($4,900) is second on the team in targets (48) and receptions (27). His most appealing quality is that he literally never leaves the field. Of the 493 offensive snaps played for Akron this season, Gathings has been on the field 93% of the time.
Injury Notes – n/a
