Central Michigan vs. Northern Illinois
Point-Spread: NIU -5.5
O/U Total: 56.5
Implied Score: NIU 31 – CMU 25.5
Weather: 58 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Central Michigan:
Top Play(s) – WR Joel Wilson ($5,700) Warning everyone now that I would really suggest not playing this slate if you enjoy holding onto your money. Tuesday’s slate was straight forward, and today is anything but. Wilson is second on the team in targets (54), and first in nearly every other CMU receiving category. Opposing TE1s are averaging 9.8 FPPG against NIU this season.
Fade – RBs. We cover off on the injury situation below in the CMU backfield, but the game week depth chart has a three-way OR situation between Jake Tafelski ($4,600), De’Javion Stepney – who isn’t even listed on DK because he was a defensive back – and Jordan Kwiatkowski…also not listed on DK. Need we say more?
Bargain Bin – WR Irone Jackson ($3,000) Jackson played 37 offensive snaps with two targets in Week 8 vs. Bowling Green. I would not suggest playing any WR here, though, beyond the top three of Wilson, Carlos Carriere and Jalen McGaughy.
Injury Notes – Assuming who plays based on the official website’s depth chart is always a fickle exercise. Tough to remember which schools update it weekly, not to mention how accurate it is. Central Michigan’s game notes may or may not provide some clarity into the Central Michigan backfield as it does not list RB Lew Nichols ($7,000) or RB Marion Lukes ($4,700). We covered off on this in the Discord on Monday, but there was an ominous post on the CMU message boards about QB Daniel Richardson ($7,400) that maybe indicated he wasn’t playing this week. Still listed as QB1 on the depth chart this week, but I’d be surprised if it wasn’t QB Jase Bauer ($7,000) getting the nod.
Northern Illinois:
Top Play(s) – RBs. If you want to differentiate some from the pack in GPPs, play both NIU running backs. This group is not performing at 2021 levels, but still the second-best rushing attack in the MAC and 22nd overall in the country. As frustrating as it can be, HC Thomas Hammock is rotating Harrison Waylee ($6,400) and Antario Brown ($5,300) way too much this season, sometimes even mid-drive. In the end, the numbers shake out to be near 50-50.
Fade – QBs If Rocky Lombardi ($6,400) plays, then this is a different story. He is listed on the game week depth chart, but I believe it’s been like this even when Lombardi has not played. NIU has barely hit 100 yards passing in the last two games.
Bargain Bin – WR Kasper Rutkiewicz ($3,800) Central Michigan’s secondary is the weak link of the defense, ranking 92nd in pass play success rate and allowing over 32 FPPG to opposing QBs on the year. While we can’t trust the NIU quarterbacks fully in this matchup, it could allow for some WRs to have successful outings. My order of preference for NIU receivers would be – Cole Tucker, Rutkiewicz, Shermar Thornton, Fabian McCray.
Injury Notes – Pay attention to the QB news on Wednesday.
Western Michigan vs. Bowling Green
Point-Spread: BG -4.5
O/U Total: 47.5
Implied Score: BG 26 – WMU 21.5
Weather: 58 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Western Michigan:
Top Play(s) – RB Sean Tyler ($6,700) Should see 100% ownership. And while it’s hardly ever advisable to be 100% on a player in DFS, I think this situation warrants it. No La’Darius Jefferson (more below). Bowling Green is allowing 20.1 FPPG. Tyler is averaging 20 carries per the last two games. There really isn’t a reason to not play Tyler.
Fade – QBs. Never a good sign when a team has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns. And its even worse for DFS when we do not know who the starter is. HC Tim Lester did not give any clues in his weekly presser, stating that Jack Salopek ($6,600) was back at practice, but would be a game-time decision as to who would start between he and Treyson Bourguet ($4,500). I suppose Bourguet is cheap enough that we could consider, but this is the 11th ranked pass offense in the MAC that has thrown just four touchdowns in conference play.
Bargain Bin – WR Anthony Sambucci ($3,600) Last three games it has been very noticeable that WMU has settled on its top three WRs in Corey Crooms, Jehlani Galloway and Anthony Sambucci. Against Miami (Ohio), the trio all played 90% of more of the offensive snaps with just one other WR getting one lone target in the game. If you play any WMU receivers, these three are the only choices. 23 of Sambucci’s 30 targets this season have come in the last three games alone.
Injury Notes – Non-injury related but La’Darius Jefferson is suspended indefinitely from the team. Also keep eyes on the QB decision we hinted above.
Bowling Green:
Top Play(s) – QB Matt McDonald ($7,900) On a slate where there is so much ambiguity with regards to quarterback situations, why not go with the most stable option on the slate in McDonald? Sexy? Absolutely not, but 16 touchdowns to just three interceptions. Five quarterbacks have scored 20 or more fantasy points against Western Michigan this season, and three have scored 30+. The Broncos are also 97th in pass play success rate and 87th in explosiveness allowed.
Fade – n/a. There’s nobody I’d necessarily fade here for Bowling Green, but also nobody of significant interest. We’ll cover off on the WRs here. No wideout with more than 18% target share here so BG does spread it out. The trio of Odieu Hilaire, Tyrone Broden and CJ Lewis played 59% of the team’s offensive snaps against Central Michigan. WMU has allowed 22 passing plays of 25 yards or more which is 10th of 12 teams in the MAC, so we might like Broden most here as he leads the team with a 16.3 YPC average and aDOT of 16.4.
Bargain Bin – WR Jaison Patterson ($4,400) Patterson would be the fourth RB option for me on this slate, but cannot deny his production the last few weeks. 195 combined yards against Miami (Ohio) and Central Michigan – two of the better defenses in the conference. Better news is that Patterson carried the rock 18 times in each game, with no other RB getting significant carries. The sophomore back appears to be locked in now as the team’s RB1.
Injury Notes – None that I’m aware of.
