Houston vs. Central Florida
- Point-Spread: Hou -1.5
- O/U Total: 47.5
- Implied Score: Hou 24.5 – UCF 23
- Weather: 71 degrees / 8% rain / 4 mph winds
Houston:
Top Play(s) – QB Conner Weigman ($8,300) Weigman is theCFFSite’s fourth highest projected QB of the weekend in college football and has the highest projection of any QB on this particular slate. The former A&M transfer has been one of the most consistent fantasy QBs in the country, scoring 20 or more fantasy points in all but two games this season – when Houston blew out Rice in Week 2 and then when he left the game due to injury against Texas Tech. UCF is no push over defensively, ranked 4th in the conference in scoring defense, but we have a high projection for Weigman and a tight game spread.
Bargain Bin – WR Koby Young ($3,100) or WR Harvey Broussard ($3,300) Both receivers have seen a heavy dosage of snaps the last two games in light of the injury to Stephon Johnson who is out for the season. Young is second among Houston receivers in routes run the last two weeks ahead of Broussard, and would be the preferred choice of the two after being targeted eight times vs. West Virginia last week.
Pivot Play – TE Tanner Koziol ($4,800) Tight ends have taken advantage of this UCF defense this season, allowing 12.5 FPPG to the position. Baylor’s Michael Trigg posted 82 yards and a TD last week. Cincinnati’s Joe Royer had 83 yards on just two catches against the Knights. And Kansas State’s Garrett Oakley also had a touchdown catch in his matchup with UCF. Koziol has found the end-zone in three straight games and would not surprise to see that streak extend to four.
Best of the Rest – WR Amare Thomas ($5,400) Thomas has really taken off since the Stephon Johnson injury as the undisputed WR1 for the Cougars with 69 or more yards in five of his last six games, with six of his seven receiving touchdowns coming in the last five weeks. UCF does a pretty good job at corraling opposing wide receivers, allowing just 24.6 FPPG to the position. Koziol might be the best receiving option in DFS for Houston, but at a much lower upside than Thomas. RB Dean Connors ($7,200) continues to garner the heavy dosage of rushing attempts each week for Houston, and this is a favorable matchup as UCF is better against the pass than the run. The Knights rank 99th in rush D success rate, 73rd in explosive runs allowed and 9th in the B12 in yards allowed per game on the ground. He’s a strong pivot option against consensus with most focused on Weigman and the passing game.
Injury Notes – n/a
Central Florida:
Top Play(s) – RB Myles Montgomery ($5,700) May not seem possible after getting obliterated 30-3 last week against Baylor and that horrific defense, but UCF is projected by Vegas to score three touchdowns in this matchup, so we’ll want exposure somewhere. The Houston run defense is slightly above average, allowing just 3.6 YPC this season, but ranked 99th in rush D success rate. Montgomery continues to be a favorite of the coaching staff, seeing double-digit carries in all but one game this season. Houston is allowing just over 24 FPPG to opposing backfields this season.
Fade – QB Tayven Jackson ($7,000) Well, with the Cam Fancher news being ruled out, there’s no chance of Tayven Jackson being benched this week, so he’s got that going for him at least. Houston is strong on the back end, ranked 16th in pass D success rate, allowing just 204 YPG through the air. There’s at least three strong QB options on the slate to where there’s no reason to risk playing Jackson here with a 14-point projection.
Pivot Play – RB Jaden Nixon ($5,100) Seems as though we’re just never going to see double-digit rushing attempts for Nixon in any game this season, despite still averaging over 11 yards per carry this season. Houston ranks 30th in the country in limiting explosive run plays, which doesn’t favor Nixon in this matchup.
Best of the Rest – WR Duane Thomas Jr. ($5,300) The WR rotations for UCF flucuate weekly, so we’re unlikely to have much exposure for a team that spreads the ball around and 73rd in passing offense. Thomas is the preferred option of the bunch as the team leader in targets (54), receptions (38) and receiving yards (393), coming off his best performance of the season with 8-77-0. TE Dylan Wade ($3,400) has been the second most consistent pass catching option behind Thomas for UCF with 13 of his 23 receptions coming in the last three weeks. WR Waden Charles ($3,800) ran the most routes of any UCF receiver against Baylor last week but resulted in a goose egg on just four targets.
Injury Notes – QB Cam Fancher (out), WR Marcus Burke (questionable)
Tulane vs. Memphis
- Point-Spread: Mem -3.5
- O/U Total: 53.5
- Implied Score: Mem 28.5 – Tul 25
- Weather: 64 degrees / 31% rain / 4 mph winds
Tulane:
Top Play(s) – QB Jake Retzlaff ($7,600) Easy choice for Tulane’s top play considering he’s the only player we have projected to score more than eight fantasy points on Friday. Retzlaff has now led the team in rushing in each of the last two games and there is not a Tulane receiver with more than 17% of the team’s target share. As for Retzlaff’s specific matchup, Memphis is a middle of the road pass defense, allowing 219 YPG through the air, and 19.1 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. In the QB pecking order on the slate, I’d put Retzlaff second behind Weigman.
Fade – RB Maurice Turner ($4,100) There was some thought that Turner could reprise his role as the team’s starter once back from injury. Not the case. The former Louisville transfer has received just eight attempts in the last two games, and by no means helped his cause for more playing time last week with a fumble.
Bargain Bin – WRs. If the term “Wide Receiver by Committee” was an actual listing in the Dictionary, the picture next to it would be the Tulane depth chart. No player has more than 17% of the target share and the coaching staff will consistently play between 7-8 receivers each week. WR Omari Hayes ($4,200) is the team’s best receiver for my money but played just 21% of the snaps against UTSA last week, while still managing to lead the team in targets. FWIW – Slot receivers have fared well against the Memphis secondary. UAB’s Iverson Hooks went for 172 yards on 11 receptions. FAU’s Easton Messer also had 131 yards on nine catches. That trend continuing would favor either Hayes or WR Bryce Bohanon ($4,700).
Best of the Rest – RB Javin Gordon ($5,200) Gordon remains the starter, but this is again another Tulane committee with three RBs vying for carries. Now factor in Retzlaff and even Brendan Sullivan in red-zone wildcat packages, and there’s not much desire here to roster Gordon or any other Tulane back. Memphis is best at defending the run, allowing just a combined 19 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. WR Zycarl Lewis Jr. ($3,100) saw his most playing time of the season last week (38% of snaps) and somehow leads the team with two touchdowns despite being sixth in targets. Spray and pray if rostering a Tulane wideout
Injury Notes – n/a
Memphis:
Top Play(s) – WR Cortez Braham ($5,900) We got injury questions at quarterback, and the Memphis backfield is all of a sudden a committee now. Braham is the one constant as the team’s WR1 with 60 or more receiving yards in six of his last seven games, including the matchup against UAB where backup quarterback AJ Hill was forced to play. Could be notable for Friday if Brendon Lewis is unable to suit up.
Fade – RB Sutton Smith ($4,700) Are we sure Sutton Smith is RB2 at this point, because it sure seems like he’s now just the team’s special teams’ ace. Smith had all of two carries last week against Rice, playing just 37% of the team’s snaps. Memphis had 12 total red zone rushing attempts last week – one went to Smith.
Bargain Bin – RB Frank Peasant ($4,100) Well, last week kinda came out of nowhere. We mentioned the former Middle Tennessee transfer in last Friday’s writeup after finding the end-zone once against South Florida the week prior. What was not expected was three rushing scores in the blowout of Rice. Peasant was tied for the team lead with four red zone carries vs. the Owls and could be taking on the same role that we’ve seen Brandon Thomas hold for the Tigers in year’s past.
Pivot Play – RB Greg Desrosiers ($6,800) Our suggestion to fade the Memphis backfield last week did not pan out with Peasant’s breakout performance, but lessening our exposure to Desrosiers was the correct play, rushing for just 28 yards and a TD on seven carries. A 14-point projection is fine this week, but it’s carried by his usage in the passing game with 18 receptions over the last four weeks. We aren’t seeing the same impact from Memphis RBs this year as in season’s past because of the OL play which ranks 125th nationally in line yards.
Best of the Rest – WR Jamari Hawkins ($3,300) Probably too cheap for a player that is second on the team in targets (32), receptions (26) and yards (456), and just behind Braham in routes run. When matchups are competitive, you’ll see primarily just Braham or Hawkins out there at receiver for Memphis.
Injury Notes – QB Brendon Lewis (questionable)
Northwestern vs. USC
- Point-Spread: USC -14.5
- O/U Total: 48.5
- Implied Score: USC 31.5 – NW 17
- Weather: 67 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Northwestern:
Top Play(s) – RB Caleb Komolafe ($4,900) Komolafe is the second-best running back play on the slate behind King Miller, coming off a season-high 125 yards and two touchdowns vs. Nebraska in Week 9. USC is better against the run than the Cornhuskers, but not by much, ranked 11th in the B1G in yards allowed on the ground and 127th in rush D success rate. Komolafe has found the end-zone at least once in five of the last six games played.
Fade – QB Preston Stone ($6,300) There are 3-4 options at quarterback on the slate. Tayven Jackson and Preston Stone are not part of that group. This is not the USC defense of five years ago. The Trojans are allowing just 212 yards per game through the air and 18.7 FPPG to quarterbacks.
Bargain Bin – WR Hayden Eligon II ($3,400) The sophomore wideout began the year as a backup but has worked his way into the starting rotation, playing over 70% of the team’s offensive snaps. 20 of Eligon’s 26 targets this season have come in the last four games.
Best of the Rest – WR Griffin Wilde ($5,200) Northwestern only throws the ball 42.9% of the time, but when they do, it’s usually in the direction of Wilde who has 28% of the team’s targets and 42% of Northwestern’s receiving production. The Trojans have allowed some big-time WR performances over the course of the year, including Michigan’s Andrew Marsh (8-138-1), MSU’s Omari Kelly (6-133-1) and Georgia Southern’s Camden Brown (3-75-2).
Injury Notes – n/a
USC:
Top Play(s) – RB King Miller ($7,400) The best two RB options on the slate are in this game. We thought that we might see Miller and backup Bryan Jackson split carries trying to replace Waymond Jordan, but USC is actually giving Miller more run than they did Jordan in the first half of the season with 18 carries in each of the last three games. Northwestern’s run defense does not show out well when you look at some of the advanced metrics, ranked 132nd in stuff rate, 114th in success rate and 101st in explosive run plays allowed. Miller is the top RB on the slate.
Bargain Bin – WR Tanook Hines ($3,500) or TE Lake McRee ($4,100) The USC passing game is largely funneled through Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane, but the secondary options with Hines and McRee are playable. Hines is third among USC wideouts in routes run and has at least 40 receiving yards in three of the last four games. Tight ends aren’t usually targeted in the USC system, but McRee does not leave the field, playing 96% of the team’s snaps over the last five weeks.
Pivot Play – WR Makai Lemon ($6,900) Not looking to deeply into the struggles of Lemon the last two games. Nothing was going for either passing game last week in the USC / Nebraska matchup for two teams that just kept the ball on the ground. And then Lemon’s mediocre performance against a strong Notre Dame secondary. Getting back in the 70-degree weather against a lesser opponent should benefit all involved in the USC offense. Lemon is still tied for 21st in the country in receptions.
Best of the Rest – QB Jayden Maiava ($8,900) The matchup is better for the USC ground game this week, and Northwestern does not allow a ton of fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season (14.1). Maiava is third on the QB pecking order for us on the slate, after Jake Retzlaff and Conner Weigman. If you do play Maiava, we’d probably suggest pivoting away from King Miller. Just three times in 2024, and then three times this year have the USC QB and RB scored 20 or more fantasy points in the same game.
Injury Notes – n/a
Mike’s DK Core Four:
- RB King Miller, USC
- RB Caleb Komolafe, Northwestern
- WR Makai Lemon, USC
- TE Tanner Koziol, Houston
Mike’s FD Core Four:
- RB King Miller, USC
- QB Jake Retzlaff, Tulane
- QB Conner Weigman, Houston
- WR Makai Lemon, USC
