California vs. Wake Forest
Point-Spread: Cal -7
O/U Total: 55
Implied Score: Cal 31 – WF 24
Weather: 61 degrees / 12% rain / 3 mph winds
California:
Top Play(s) – TE Jack Endries ($4,800) Endries has been one of the best fantasy tight ends in the country for the last month with multiple 100-yard performances and two touchdowns in a four-week span. 26 of his 34 targets have come in that four-game stretch, due in large part to Corey Dyches not being in the lineup. This is a dream matchup against a Wake Forest defense that is allowing 15 fantasy points per game to tight ends. Four tight ends have scored at least 17 fantasy points against Wake this season – by far the most in the country.
Fade – RB Jaivian Thomas ($5,800) Until we see or hear otherwise, we’re expecting Jaydn Ott to play on Friday, just as he did in Week 9 against Oregon State. And with the bye week to recover from any lingering injury he might have had, we’re expecting Ott to be closer or at 100%.
Bargain Bin – WR Trond Grizzell ($3,300) Steady uptick in production from Grizzell this season who has not been the team’s WR1 like some expected. Played a season-high 66% of snaps against Oregon State, finishing with 95 yards on six targets. We won’t do a deep dive on Cal receivers because it’s not a productive exercise, as the team’s leading wideout accounts for just 13% of the total target share. Based solely on the most recent game, Grizzell, Nyziah Hunter and Mikey Matthews received the most playing time of any Cal receivers.
Pivot Play – RB Jaydn Ott ($7,100) The ultimate pivot play because Ott is not a $7.1k player this season based on his production and limited availability in 2024. The matchup and a bye week to heal up could do wonders for Ott this week, though. If Wake does have one strength on defense, it would be stopping the run, allowing just 24.4 FPPG to opposing backfields and 59th in EPA per run play defensively.
Best of the Rest – QB Fernando Mendoza ($6,400) I’m never a huge fan of rostering Mendoza because his fantasy production can be erratic at times, but you can’t ask for a better matchup as Wake Forest is dead last in the country in pass D success rate, allowing close to 26 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks.
Injury Notes – Make sure you do your weekly checks just to make sure Jaydn Ott is a go. Never know with him this season.
Wake Forest:
Top Play(s) – RB Demond Claiborne ($6,900) How could the dude that dislocated his kneecap in the first half, returned for the second half, and then proceeded to have a 60-yard TD run a few weeks back not be our top play for Wake Forest? Good, not great matchup for Claiborne this week as Cal No. 3 in the ACC in yards allowed per game on the ground but have also allowed four ACC running backs to score 17 or more fantasy points against them this season.
Fade – QB Hank Bachmeier ($5,800) Kudos to Bachmeier for not being injured or getting benched yet as we head into Week 11. Cal’s pass defense is the strength on that side of the ball, ranked 49th in EPA per pass play, and have allowed just one quarterback to score more than 20 fantasy points against them all year.
Bargain Bin – WR Horatio Fields ($3,800) or WR Micah Mays Jr. ($3,000) or WR Deuce Alexander ($3,200) Honestly, either of the three options work and are playable this week as Wake Forest exclusively uses just four receivers with Donavon Greene out injured. Fields had scored double-digit fantasy points in every game this season, though that streak was snapped against Stanford. Was still targeted seven times, as was Alexander, who has been targeted at least five times in all but one game this season. Mays is a distant four option among the WF wideouts, but 24 of his 25 targets this season have come just in the last four games. All three players listed above are cheap enough to consider.
Pivot Play – WR Taylor Morin ($4,700) Second on the team in targets (51), first in receptions (39) and second in routes run. Four of the five highest scoring receivers against Cal this season have played in the slot. Morin plays inside 67% of the time.
Best of the Rest – n/a. Claiborne and the Wake Forest receivers are the options.
Injury Notes – Sounds like WR Donavon Greene ($4,900) could come back at some point this season, with Dave Clawson saying, “we hope we can get him back down the stretch.” Doesn’t sound like that’ll be this week.
Rice vs. Memphis
Point-Spread: Mem -9.5
O/U Total: 52.5
Implied Score: Mem 31 – Rice 21.5
Weather: 65 degrees / 39% rain / 10 mph winds
Rice:
Top Play(s) – RB Dean Connors ($7,300) I prefer to roster the players with multiple pathways to success in my DFS lineups. Wazzu’s John Mateer comes to mind as one example. Connors fits that profile as one of the best pass-catching running backs in the country with 48 receptions on 62 targets, good for second on the team. Memphis does defend the run well, ranking 39th in success rate and giving up just 20 points combined to opposing backfields. Connors is preferred on DK versus FD because of the scoring settings.
Fade – RB Quinton Jackson ($3,200) Dean Connors does not come off the field, playing over 80% of the team’s snaps this year and 55% of the team’s rushing attempts.
Bargain Bin – Players Not Named Matt Sykes or Dean Connors. You see a clear separation in the projections between Rice’s top three offensive options and the rest of the roster. In terms of playing time, you could look at TE Elijah Mojarro, or WRs Thai Bowman, WR Kobie Campbell or Braylen Walker, all of whom played over 46% of snaps last week vs. Navy.
Pivot Play – WR Matt Sykes ($5,200) The projected WR4 coming into the year has emerged as the team’s top receiving option, leading the Owls with 72 targets and has 27 more catches than the next closest Rice receiver. Remember Bradley Rozner? Sykes plays the same position on the boundary at 6-foot-4, with four of the team’s 11 receiving touchdowns.
Best of the Rest – EJ Warner ($6,200) There are only two arguments here in favor of playing Warner. (1) Game script as a 10-point underdog favors plenty of passing. (2) It was said multiple times last week after Memphis’ loss to UTSA that the Tigers’ season is over with their second defeat of the season. Memphis has College Football Playoff aspirations and those clearly did not transpire. So, will this Memphis team, and specifically their defense, go on a downward turn now with little to play for? Two of the last three QBs faced have scored 30 or more fantasy points against the Tigers.
Injury Notes – RB Brandon Thomas ($4,300)
Memphis:
Top Play(s) – RB Mario Anderson ($9,400) Copy + paste my writeup about Anderson from last week’s Main Slate. Now six touchdowns in the last three games for the senior running back and has scored 28 or more fantasy points in five of his last six games. Just one rushing attempt went to a Memphis running back last week not named Mario Anderson, as the Tigers are down three of their top four rushers. Rice has been solid against the run this year, allowing just 22.3 FPPG to running backs and are 37th in rush D success rate.
Fade – WR Jyaire Shorter ($3,200) Should DeMeer Blankumsee miss the contest on Friday, it appears Jamari Hawkins would get the start over Shorter based on playing time last week as Hawkins was on the field 57% of the time versus just 11% for Shorter.
Bargain Bin – WR Koby Drake ($3,400) Drake would have been an option regardless at this price, but gets a significant boost if Blankumsee does not play. The team’s WR3 caught his first touchdown of the year last week vs. UTSA, finishing with 5-63-1 on seven targets, with the most offensive snaps of any Memphis wide receiver. TE Anthony Landphere ($3,300) is also too cheap, coming off a season-high of seven receptions on 10 targets against the Roadrunners.
Pivot Play – WR Roc Taylor ($6,300) I’ll talk about the Rice pass defense a bit more below, but also should be noted that some of the Owl’s numbers against receivers, in particular, are inflated due to facing multiple triple-option offenses in 2024. Rice has also allowed some big performances to opposing receivers this season, namely 32 fantasy points to Charlotte’s O’Mega Blake and 23 fantasy points to UTSA’s Devin McCuin. Roc Taylor is better than both players.
Best of the Rest – QB Seth Henigan ($8,400) I would put Henigan closer to a fade than a play this week as the Rice Owls rank No. 2 nationally in pass D success rate. The Owls are allowing 20 FPPG to quarterbacks but look who has done the most damage against this defense. Army’s Bryson Daily – triple option QB. Houston’s Donovan Smith – ran for two rushing touchdowns. Sam Houston’s Hunter Watson – dual-threat QB. Henigan is not immobile, but he’s not getting you a ton of fantasy points on the ground. If Memphis is down DeMeer Blankumsee, I can see the Tigers leaning on the run.
Injury Notes – WR DeMeer Blankumsee ($6,000) Hope Blankumsee gets healthy soon, but it was a bit funny seeing him try and pull the Christiano Ronaldo celebration after scoring a touchdown last week, only to injure his knee in the process. No update as of Wednesday morning as far as his status for Friday.
Iowa vs. UCLA
Point-Spread: Iowa -5.5
O/U Total: 44.5
Implied Score: Iowa 25 – UCLA 19.5
Weather: 62 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Iowa:
If you thought you’d get a more extensive Iowa writeup for a four-game slate, you’re wrong. RB Kaleb Johnson ($10,400) or nobody at all. Marquez Cooper is actually the better option for this slate if choosing apples to apples, but tough to argue against a running back that is on the verge of 1,300 rushing yards in 10 games played and has found the end-zone every single week. UCLA doesn’t grade out well with the advanced defensive metrics, but are No. 3 in the B1G in yards allowed per game on the ground. Johnson’s numbers drop with his home / away splits as well, averaging about four carries and 18 yards per game less when on the road as he is this week. Iowa’s top two tight ends are not expected to play on Friday, so the longshot option would be TE Zach Ortwerth ($3,000) who led the Hawkeyes with 66 yards and three catches on three targets.
UCLA:
Top Play(s) – WR Kwazi Gilmer ($4,000) Gilmer is a 6-foot-2 freshman that is owned in all four of my college fantasy dynasty leagues, and has shown some promise in his debut season, especially of late with seven receptions on nine targets in the last two weeks. Gilmer ran the second-most routes of any UCLA wideout vs. Nebraska last week and this is that point in the year where younger players are getting more run.
Fade – RB Jalen Berger ($3,900) UCLA won’t run the football on Iowa and Jalen Berger is the third option in the UCLA backfield behind TJ Harden and Keegan Jones. Iowa is allowing a combined 15 fantasy points total to opposing backfields this season.
Bargain Bin – TE Moliki Matavao ($3,100) Team leader in routes run and targets (37) this season, and second behind only TJ Harden in receptions (24).
Pivot Play – WR Titus Atimalala ($3,400) over WR Logan Loya ($3,800) Loya does have three touchdowns in his last five games with the higher projection and higher salary on DK, usually indicating the better play. That said, Atimalala is playing extensively more snaps, on the field 82% of the time over the last two games. Loya has only played around 30% of the snaps in that span. We’ve stated this several times already this year, but WRs are in play vs. the Hawkeyes, with five different receivers scoring at least 21 fantasy points against this secondary.
Best of the Rest – RB TJ Harden ($4,500) Harden’s viability comes in the passing game, ranked second on the team in targets (31) and first in receptions (27). QB Ethan Garbers ($5,700) would be my sixth or seventh option among possible quarterbacks on the slate, facing a defense that gives up just 16 FPPG to opposing QBs. I’d rather play Danny O’Neil at a similar pricing.
Injury Notes – n/a
New Mexico vs. San Diego State
Point-Spread: SDSU -2.5
O/U Total: 67.5
Implied Score: SDSU 35 – NM 32.5
Weather: 59 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
New Mexico:
Top Play(s) – QB Devon Dampier ($9,900) Highest-projected player on the slate and the third-highest projected player of the entire weekend in college fantasy football, coming off a season-best 50 fantasy points in the loss to Wyoming. This is not the San Diego State defenses of year’s past, ranked 8th in the Mountain West in scoring defense and allowing 23 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks.
Fade – n/a. New Mexico players are priced appropriately, just don’t get caught rostering an injured Lobo, because there are several of them.
Bargain Bin – WR Michael Buckley ($3,100) If Luke Wysong is out another week, Michael Buckley would get the start in his place after playing 70% of the team’s offensive snaps the last two games. Quiet day vs. Wyoming but was targeted eight times with seven receptions the week prior vs. Colorado State.
Pivot Play – RB Eli Sanders ($5,700) Sanders was the only running back to touch a football last week against Wyoming, rumbling for 205 yards and two scores on 17 attempts. San Diego State’s run defense is the weakness of the team, ranking 125th in rush D success rate and 112th in rush success rate. Assuming no Javen Jacobs or Naquari Rogers, Sanders will again get the bulk of the work in the NM backfield. As we saw last week, stacking both Dampier and Sanders together is possible.
Best of the Rest – WR Ryan Davis ($5,100) Davis is a priority if Luke Wysong does not play, now with 15 receptions on 25 targets over the last two games. There hasn’t been any drop off from Wysong to Davis as the team’s WR1. The situation gets muddy if Wysong is back. WR Caleb Medford ($3,800) has been a bust in 2024, coming in with the expectation he’d be the team’s WR1, but played 76% of the snaps last week with a season-high nine targets. He’s capable of a big play or two, with a 17.6 YPC average and 17.7 aDOT.
Injury Notes – Luke Wysong is the big name but watch for Javen Jacobs and Naquari Rogers updates too. They would downgrade Sanders slightly if back from injury. No updates as of Wednesday morning writing this.
San Diego State:
Top Play(s) – RB Marquez Cooper ($8,000) Dampier has the higher projection, and there’s a longshot Heisman candidate on the slate with Kaleb Johnson, but I might suggest that Cooper is the top play on Friday. You’re locked into 18-20 touches a week with Cooper, facing a New Mexico defense that is arguably the worst in the entire country. RBs average 37 FPPG against the Lobos, and five running backs have scored at least 23 fantasy points against New Mexico this season.
Fade – WR Louis Brown ($5,400) Of the four primary wide receivers to play against Boise State last Friday (not counting Ja’Shaun Poke), Brown played the least with zero receptions on just four targets as he returned from suspension. Dare I say he’s been surpassed in the starting lineup by Mekhi Shaw and Nate Bennett.
Bargain Bin – WR Mekhi Shaw ($3,400) or Nate Bennett ($3,500). See above. Shaw played 87% of the team’s offensive snaps last week, catching his first touchdown of the season. 11 of his 13 targets this year have come in the last two games. Bennett played a bit less – just 60% of the snaps – but was on the field more than Louis Brown was. Two SDSU receivers is possible, as the Aztecs don’t really rotate beyond the top 4-5, and don’t include tight ends or running backs in the passing game.
Pivot Play – QB Danny O’Neil ($5,300) It’s been an up-and-down debut for the freshman quarterback, completing 60% of his throws with eight touchdowns and just four INTs. The opposition this week is what intrigues us to O’Neil. 131st out of 134 team in pass D success rate and dead last in the nation in EPA per pass play defensively. Four QBs have scored at least 25 fantasy points vs. New Mexico this season, and that list includes the likes of Hank Brown, Kaden Anderson and Spencer Petras. Yikes.
Best of the Rest – WR Jordan Napier ($5,300) Napier is a 6-foot-2 freshman that had his best performance of the year with 8-78-1 on 11 targets last week. He plays 94% of his snaps in the slot, so he’s downgraded slightly if Poke returns to the lineup. But San Diego State does employ two slot receivers occasionally, so Napier is an option regardless.
Injury Notes – WR Ja’Shaun Poke ($5,000) Poke doesn’t have an injury tag on DraftKings, but left the contest against Boise State last week after taking a hit in the first quarter and did not return. We likely won’t find out until Friday in pregame warmups about his availability.
