Oklahoma @ Baylor
Point-Spread: Okla -5.5
O/U Total: 62.5
Weather: 59 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
Oklahoma:
Caleb Williams was well worth the price of admission two weeks ago against Texas Tech at home, throwing six touchdowns at $10k in the rout of the Red Raiders? Worth spending up again at the same price? The only way I can rationalize Williams here is in a game stack with these two teams, but the o/u is already down a point to 62 this week. Where you can make the argument for Williams is he’s facing a secondary that is trending in the wrong direction right now. Still just 10 passing TDs allowed on the year, but are allowing nearly a 70 percent completion rate over the last four games and are struggling mightily to defend the big play. That increases my interest in Marvin Mims who is finally seeing the snap counts a player of his stature deserves, and his aDOT of 17.2 means he’ll be testing these vulnerabilities in the Baylor secondary. After scoring two TDs against Tech, though, he’s priced up at $6,400 over Jadon Haselwood for the first time in a while. Freshman Mario Williams came back from injury with a vengeance, topping 100 yards with a touchdown on six targets against Tech, and the Sooners could get Mike Woods back from injury. With all four back and healthy, might we see more of the rotation that infuriated us earlier in the year?
Projections do not like Kennedy Brooks this week, especially at his $7,700 price tag. The Bears are limiting opponents to under four yards a carry in the last five games, and under three yards a carry three times in that span. RB1s are averaging just 16.5 FPPG against Baylor this season and the Bears are 20th in Rush Play Explosiveness on the year so you’ll have to grind it out on the ground. While the projections don’t love Brooks this week, I have a feeling its due to the Sooners practically avoiding the running game against Texas Tech so there is some recency bias built in. The game prior against Kansas, we saw Brooks maintain his healthy volume advantage over Eric Gray so I don’t think there is anything to worry about from that standpoint.
Baylor:
Credit to friend of the site, Nate Marchese (@CFFNate), for posting some stats this week about opposing offenses facing the Oklahoma secondary. Last four WR1s faced this year – Erik Ezukanma, Xavier Worthy, Quentin Johnston and Kwame Lassiter – averaged around 21 fantasy points (combined) more against Oklahoma than the other opponents faced this season. In total, WR1s are averaging 24.5 FPPG this season against the Sooner, which should bode well for Tyquan Thornton coming off one of his best performances of the year with 5-121-2 on eight targets vs. TCU last weekend. We’ve seen it flip-flopped with production at times between Thornton and R.J. Sneed as the primary receiver, but this looks to be a matchup that favors the WR1 here. If looking at PFF, both outside cornerbacks grade out poorly this season, and Sneed looking to be matched up with the lowest of the trio in Jaden Davis, so maybe both are in play this week. WR2s are averaging around 14.5 FPPG against the Sooners.
If we like both of the receivers this week, we must like Gerry Bohanon right? Projections certainly do at 25.4 points with a very attainable price-point of $7,200. Biggest concern here is Bohanon’s play of late, looking like the erratic prospect that was in a QB battle this offseason, throwing five interceptions in the last three games. Still, tough to ignore Bohanon facing the 114th ranked pass defense in the country and a team allowing 30.7 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season. We absolutely want a piece of the Baylor passing game in our lineups this week.
The Baylor offensive line is still very good, but we continue to see the advanced stats trending downward with this group in Big 12 play. Now 49th in Power Success and 45th in Stuff Rate. Still top 10 in Line Yards and 13th in Rush Play Success Rate, but Baylor was in the top five in all four categories after the first month of the season. That’s part of why we didn’t see Abram Smith run roughshod over the TCU defense last week, though he was still solid with 125 yards on 18 carries. Just a case of bad luck not finding the end-zone, being vultured by backup Trestan Ebner. I don’t view either as a must-play this week against an Oklahoma defense that has generally been solid against the run all year, ranking third in the Big 12 and giving up under 3.5 yards per carry on the year.
Michigan @ Penn State
Point-Spread: Mich -1.5
O/U Total: 48.5
Weather: 41 degrees / 38% rain / 13 mph winds
Michigan:
I find it interesting that this line has swung in favor of the Wolverines this week despite struggling to find wins at Penn State in recent years. Big storyline to monitor is in the backfield where Blake Corum is questionable this week, and I’ve read he could be between 50 and 75 percent health. What makes this even more interesting is RB3 Donovan Edwards remains out and behind that would be an unproven 3-star freshman. So, 30 touches for Hassan Haskins on Saturday? No, the matchup isn’t great but Penn State isn’t this dominant run defense. Holding Maryland to 48 yards on the ground isn’t some amazing accomplishment. RB1s are averaging 17.5 FPPG against the Nittany Lions and are 48th in Rush Play Success Rate. Good, but not dominant. Michigan’s offensive line has fallen back a bit since the start of the year, now ranking 59th in Line Yards, but this is still a formidable group that should be able to generate some push against the PSU defensive front. If Corum and Edwards are out, guaranteed touches for Haskins on Saturday.
New WR1 Andrel Anthony is also questionable this week as he left the game against Indiana. Harbaugh appeared on local radio saying both he and Corum have a chance to play this week, stating some have a “real good chance” but didn’t specify who that was. His availability does have a direct effect on Cornelius Johnson who caught five passes for 108 yards on eight targets with Anthony out for most of last week. Either Roman Wilson or Daylen Baldwin would start in Anthony’s place should he be out. We should also monitor if Erick All will be available Saturday as he did not play against Indiana after his career day against MSU with 10-98-0 on 10 targets. Luke Schoonmaker started in his place last week and had two receiving touchdowns. I mention this increased usage of the Michigan tight ends because PSU is allowing 10.0 FPPG this season to opposing TE1s. Both are sub-$4k. I want no part of Cade McNamara, even at $5,300, against this secondary that is 7th in PFF coverage grades and allowing just 12.0 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks.
Penn St:
Not much of a price bump this week for Sean Clifford after throwing for 363 yards and three touchdowns last week on the road at Maryland. With a 20-point projection this week, I think Clifford is in play again at $5,800, but I have some concerns. We aren’t seeing Clifford get anything done on the ground with negative yardage in the last three games. Michigan’s talented DE duo of Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo are going to wreak havoc in that backfield all game long. The Wolverines are allowing just 15.7 FPPG to opposing QBs this season – 9th best mark in the country – and are 26th in Pass Play Success Rate. Lastly, weather won’t great with rain and wind expected. Working in favor of Clifford is the fact that Penn State can’t run the football AT ALL. Yes, the Wolverines were gashed by Kenneth Walker, but have been excellent at stopping the run outside of that game. Zero interest in the Penn State backfield.
Jahan Dotson is an absolute monster and one of just a handful target hogs at wide receiver in the country. Will I be spending up to $8,800 to roster him against this defense? Most likely not. Last year against Michigan: 3-30-0. In 2019: 1-37-0. In 2018: 2-29-0. Is that lack of success in the back of Dotson’s mind? Nobody knows but him, but he’s never been impactful against the Wolverines in three meetings. Michigan doesn’t have a dominant shutdown corner this year, but are solid on the outside between Vincent Gray and Gemon Green who both grade out well on PFF. If you think it’s a good matchup then for maybe Parker Washington in the slot? Think again. Michigan’s best defender in Daxton Hill will match up with him much of the day. He is cheap at $4,400 for someone that plays 70 percent of the team’s offensive snaps and has been targeted 23 times in the last three weeks. WR3 KeAndre Lambert-Smith is on the field just as much as the other two starting receivers, and has been targeted at least four times in every game this season.
Georgia @ Tennessee
Point-Spread: UGA -20
O/U Total: 56
Weather: 48 degrees / 2% rain / 6 mph winds
Georgia:
This has the feel of a Zamir White week. Regardless of how much success Georgia has on defense this week, we know Tennessee under Josh Heupel is going to play fast. Kirby Smart has mentioned this week that’s his biggest concern with the UT offense is the pace they play at, and keeping his defense fresh is priority numero uno. That means getting the running game back on track this week after they were underwhelming against Missouri, rushing for just 168 yards on 33 carries. Averaging 5.1 YPC is a disappointing statistic for the No. 1 team in the country taking on the worst run defense. Reading quotes from some of the Georgia players this week, sounds as though this was the emphasis in practice. With regards to White, we know the floor. He’s found the end-zone at least one time in each of the last seven games. Upside is the issue as UGA will rotate in both James Cook and Kenny McIntosh as they did last week, and even more so in blowout settings. Tennessee keeping this game close would be the best scenario if planning on rostering White.
Is this the week to get Brock Bowers in your lineups? The FR tight end remains our top projected pass-catcher for the Dawgs, and Tennessee has really struggled defending the position this season, allowing 9.3 FPPG to opposing TE1s. Trust me, I get it. It’s so difficult rostering a tight end at $5,800 on a team that spreads the ball out like Georgia does. But this week dictates we give Bowers a look. The fact that Bowers has been quiet the last two weeks from a production standpoint entices me even more to get him in a lineup or two. The other notable storyline from the passing game is WR1 Jermaine Burton looking healthy for the first time in weeks, snagging three passes for 76 yards and a touchdown against Missouri. Given his lack of production this season, I’m stunned he’s listed at $5,200 already, meaning I’ll likely fade here. With Burton in the lineup, the top three at receiver looks set with Adonai Mitchell and Ladd McConkey in the starting lineup, combining for 50 percent of the targets last week that went to UGA pass-catchers.
UGA may rank 59th in pass yards per game, but are third in the country in pass efficiency. Kudos to former walk-on Stetson Bennett for how he’s performed given the pressure of captaining the No. 1 team in the country, combined with all the injuries the Bulldogs have suffered at receiver. GPP play here, as I think Bennett will go under-owned at $7,500 with a plethora of options at lower salaries. I do believe this is a game in which Georgia will try and get the run game going to keep their defense fresh as we mentioned above, but would be remiss if I didn’t also mention that Tennessee is allowing 31.3 FPPG to opposing QBs this season.
Tennessee:
We’ve seen Tennessee have success on offense this season against a superior team in Alabama already, but facing the Georgia defense is a different kind of adventure. Lets get the running game out of the way first – no chance we start either Jabari Small or Tiyon Evans against the No. 2 rush defense in the country. FWIW – sounds like it might be just Small in the backfield Saturday as Evans re-injured his ankle. Georgia has allowed the second fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs in the country. Running QBs like Hendon Hooker haven’t had much success either against the Dawgs. KJ Jefferson and Emory Jones combined for just 27 yards on the ground. If you’re thinking Hooker can succeed through the air, I’d reconsider as UGA might be better defending the pass. Bulldogs are second in the nation, allowing 149.6 YPG through the air and the fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs in all of college football. Hooker is playing some of the best football of his career, but I can’t see a path to success here. Is there a chance this UGA secondary has a lapse in concentration and allows a big play? UT is near the top of the country in explosive pass plays this season with 10 of 40 yards or more and 20 plays of 30+ yards. The trio of Velus Jones Jr., Cedric Tillman and JaVonta Payton dominated the snap counts last week against Kentucky, accounting for 16 of the 19 targets that went to Tennessee pass-catchers and each found the end-zone once. Is someone like Payton worth the risk at $3,900 as he’s scored at least once in six of the last seven games?
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