California vs. Louisville
- Point-Spread: UL -20.5
- O/U Total: 50.5
- Implied Score: UL 35.5 – Cal 15
- Weather: 58 degrees / 11% rain / 8 mph winds
California:
Top Play(s) – WR Jacob de Jesus ($5,300) JDJ has been targeted at least eight times in every game since the opening week against Oregon State, and game script will be in his favor once again on Saturday. We’ve seen slot receivers have good success against this Louisville defense, namely Miami’s Malachi Toney (9-135-0) and Pittsburgh’s Cataurus Hicks (4-113-1).
Fade – QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele ($6,300) There’s a rumor circulating on social media that Miami is taking a big swing with their deep pocketbooks at a quarterback for the 2026 season. JKS is likely one of those getting calls from the Miami donors. As for this week, no chance we’re playing JKS with an 11.7-point projection.
Bargain Bin – WR Trond Grizzell ($3,600) Strong performance from Grizzell last week vs. Virginia, converting on all eight of his targets for 80 yards. Has found the end-zone just once, but leads the team in routes run, and is the top deep threat, averaging over 15 YPC. While the Cal QB isn’t playable, the game script sets up for a high number of passes thrown as a three-touchdown underdog.
Pivot Play – TE Mason Mini ($3,900) Team leader in touchdowns (4), while ranking third in targets (46) and tied for second in receptions (34). Mini rarely comes off the field too, playing over 97% of the team’s offensive snaps over the last five games. His numbers haven’t been as good in the last three games as they were at the start of the season, but this is a good matchup against a Louisville defense that has struggled to defend tight ends, allowing over 11 FPPG to the position. Boston College took advantage of the middle of the Louisville defense with their two tight ends combining for 135 yards and two scores.
Best of the Rest – RB Kendrick Raphael ($5,800) Raphael has been one of the most consistent fantasy running backs over the last month or so and does not share carries with any other Cal runners. That said, he’s a pure volume play in a game where Cal is 20-point underdogs. While he’s hit value every week, Raphael is also averaging under four yards a carry in each of the last four games, while also facing a Louisville defense that gives up just 13 FPPG to running backs.
Injury Notes – n/a
Louisville:
Top Play(s) – RB Keyjuan Brown ($6,100) With Isaac Brown suffering an injury against Virginia Tech last week that may keep him out the rest of the year, backup Keyjuan Brown stepped up against Virginia Tech to rush for 94 yards and two scores in his absence. Cal is one of the worst run defenses in the ACC, ranked 14th in yards allowed on the ground and tied for second to last in rushing touchdowns given up (18). The ONLY real hesitation here is that RB Duke Watson ($6,000) is likely to return to the lineup and was ahead of him on the depth chart coming into the year. That, and Brown is likely to see heavy ownership.
Pivot Play – QB Miller Moss ($7,600) Moss is in play because of his rushing usage over the last five games with five rushing touchdowns in that span, but not the best matchup for the Louisville passing game. Cal ranks 3rd in the ACC in yards allowed through the air (198.6) and have given up just 7 passing touchdowns all year which is best in the conference. This game sets up for a heavy run script.
Best of the Rest – WR Chris Bell ($7,300) or WR Caullin Lacy ($5,100) Not a matchup to stack the two together being such heavy favorites, but having one in a lineup is wise strategy in that the WR duo combines for 58% of the receiving production on the team and 8-of-12 receiving touchdowns. Four times this season Cal has allowed a 100-yard receiver.
Injury Notes – RB Isaac Brown (out), RB Duke Watson (probable)
Florida State vs. Clemson
- Point-Spread: Clem -2.5
- O/U Total: 56.5
- Implied Score: Clem 29.5 – FSU 27
- Weather: 63 degrees / 19% rain /5 mph winds
Florida State:
Top Play(s) – WR Duce Robinson ($5,800) Robinson has now posted 80 or more receiving yards in five of his last seven games following his 148-yard performance in the blowout win over Wake Forest last week. The two instances where Robinson did not hit 80 receiving yards? Against Kent State when he wasn’t needed, and against Pittsburgh when he left the first half due to injury. High game total and narrow spread is what we like to see. Clemson has allowed 651 passing yards over the last two games, and multiple 100-yard receivers.
Fade – RB Gavin Sawchuk ($5,200) Sawchuk found the end-zone twice against Wake Forest, but the major storyline was him being relegated to backup duties. This is not the matchup or game scenario to roster a backup running back.
Bargain Bin – RB Samuel Singleton Jr. ($4,000) Mike Norvell finally turned over the RB1 job to a freshman – it just wasn’t the freshman we all thought it would be. Singleton rushed for 91 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries in the win over Wake Forest, and it is hard to envision he doesn’t start again this week after that performance. As for the matchup, Clemson is much better against the run than the pass, ranking 36th in rush D success rate and 15th in stuff rate. Singleton isn’t a must play, but he’s dirt cheap for an RB1.
Pivot Play – QB Thomas Castellanos ($8,500) The season-long numbers are fine for the Clemson pass defense, but have been very leaky on the backend in the last two weeks as we alluded to above. Ranking 123rd in explosive pass plays allowed is not a great recipe for success when facing two starting receivers for FSU that average over 20 yards per catch. Extremely high floor for Castellanos this week for a QB that has scored at least 10 fantasy points in every game this season, in a matchup that does have shootout potential. Florida State on the road in ACC play under Norvell has not been great, though.
Best of the Rest – WR Micahi Danzy ($5,900) Nothing changed with Danzy’s usage last week, he actually set a season-high in offensive snaps played vs. Wake Forest …it just didn’t workout in his favor with Duce Robinson being the preferred target on the night. Robinson makes much more sense here given the slight salary savings at $100 cheaper, but Danzy is in the mix as a pivot option that will likely have significantly less ownership.
Injury Notes – RB Roydell Williams (probable)
Clemson:
Top Play(s) – WR TJ Moore ($4,700) Was a bit nervy for a minute last week, but TJ Moore came through eventually with a 75-yard touchdown reception vs. Duke. The four targets was not what we wanted to see, but Moore did play 92% of the offensive snaps against the Blue Devils and first on the team in routes run. The salary is a big part of why Moore is Clemson’s top play because of the flexibility to spend up elsewhere.
Bargain Bin – WR Tristan Smith ($3,600) Smith took on the full role of Bryant Wesco Jr. and did not split time with any other Clemson receiver, finishing second on the team in receptions (6) and targets (8) for 79 yards. About as strong a sub $4k play as you’ll see on any slate.
Pivot Play – RB Gideon Davidson ($4,400) Extremely interested to see how the Clemson RBs shake out this week after Davidson saw his most extended action of the season last week, rushing for 51 yards on 12 attempts, while adding four catches in the passing game. Will the coaching staff get Davidson more involved again this week, or was that simply a product of RB Adam Randall ($6,500) being injured in the second quarter? FSU is far better against the run than the pass, ranked 49th in success rate and 8th in limiting explosive run plays. Will also be interested to see Randall / Davidson’s usage in the passing game against this FSU defense. Remember the matchup with Pitt a few weeks ago where the running backs combined for nearly 200 receiving yards on 12 receptions. Randall or Davidson could hit value multiple ways.
Best of the Rest – WR Antonio Williams ($6,800) Most everyone will be on either Moore or Smith for the salary savings, so just like last week, Williams is the ultimate shift away from the crowd. Easily his best performance of the season with 10-149-1 on 12 targets but has been consistent since coming back from injury too, with at least five receptions in each of the last five games. QB Cade Klubnik’s ($9,000) projection of just 22 points seems to take him out of the equation here, but FSU’s secondary can be taken advantage of, ranked 83rd in success rate and 95th in explosive plays allowed. The Seminoles are allowing just 19.9 FPPG to quarterbacks but have only played two top 50 fantasy QBs all year.
Injury Notes – WR Bryant Wesco Jr. (out)
Wake Forest vs. Virginia
- Point-Spread: UVA -6.5
- O/U Total: 48.5
- Implied Score: UVA 27.5 – WF 21
- Weather: 58 degrees / 4% rain / 4 mph winds
Wake Forest:
Fade – QB Robby Ashford ($6,400) Play at your own risk. Projection might seem fine for a $6.4k quarterback, but Ashford threw for less than 100 yards in the loss last week to Florida State and left the game due to injury. HC Jake Dickert said they’ll “evaluate the QB situation week to week,” and sometimes “series to series.” We want no part of that.
Bargain Bin – WR Sterling Berkhalter ($3,700) Micah Mays seems like the most likely Wake receiver not to play, so that would boost Berkhalter as the team’s top outside option. If Mays were to sit, it seems like old friend WR Carlos Hernandez ($3,200) would pop into the starting lineup. If Chris Barnes were to sit, it would be WR Sawyer Racanelli ($3,000) getting the starting nod as a 6-foot-3 option in the slot. He had an 88-yard performance earlier in the year vs. Virginia Tech. All that said, they still have Robby Ashford throwing them the football.
Pivot Play – RB Demond Claiborne ($6,200) Weekly debate of can Demond Claiborne run on this opponent? The small lean is towards no, as Virginia is in the upper half of the ACC in run defense, allowing just 3.4 YPC for the season. UVA limited Cal to just eight rushing yards as a team last week. Wake has not been good enough up front to create holes for Claiborne this season, ranking 124th in total offense success rate, 116th in rushing success rate and 102nd in line yards. That said, where else is offensive production coming from on the Wake side?
Best of the Rest – WR Chris Barnes ($5,100) Barnes was listed as probable on the Thursday injury report as he’s been dealing with a bone bruise for much of the year. When healthy, he’s the one game breaker WF has at receiver, averaging 15.1 YPC with a team high in targets (44) and receptions (33).
Injury Notes – WR Micah Mays Jr. (questionable), WR Chris Barnes (probable), TE Eni Falayi (probable)
Virginia:
Top Play(s) – A UVA wide receiver. More chances than not that this is a low-scoring affair, so our best bet is with the Virginia receivers since all three are cheap. In all five ACC matchups this season, and in each of the last six games including the Oregon State matchup, the leading receiver against Wake Forest has been a boundary receiver, which would favor either WR Jahmal Edrine ($4,400) or WR Trell Harris ($4,100). Can’t discount WR Cam Ross ($3,800) either as he’s the cheapest of the bunch and was tied for the team lead in targets last week (7) in his return from injury. Probably not a stacking game for the UVA offense, so limit one UVA receiver per lineup is optimal.
Bargain Bin – TE Sage Ennis ($3,300) Playing time for Ennis has increased substantially over the last month, now on the field 75% of the time. 8 of his 13 receptions this season have come in the last three games.
Pivot Play – QB Chandler Morris ($7,800) Morris has been great for real life football, leading Virginia to an 8-1 record. For fantasy purposes, he is not the same QB option that he was a year ago at North Texas. The two instances where Morris was in the DFS winning lineup was a shootout against Florida State and a blowout of Stanford. The spread and game total by Vegas indicate this matchup will be none of those. Wake Forest is allowing just 16.6 FPPG to quarterbacks this season.
Best of the Rest – RB J’Mari Taylor ($8,000) Just not loving the lineup builds with Taylor included because we want to save salary to spend up for Jeremiyah Love. Despite getting 40% of the volume share, this just isn’t the best matchup against a Wake defense that is 6th in stuff rate, 27th in rush play success rate, and 26th in limiting explosive run plays. If this were regular college fantasy we might even suggest sitting Taylor this week with better matchups available.
Injury Notes – RB Xavier Brown (out), RB Noah Vaughn (out)
Nevada vs. Utah State
- Point-Spread: Utah St -9
- O/U Total: 53
- Implied Score: Utah St 31 – Nev 22
- Weather: 48 degrees / 0% rain / 4 mph winds
Utah St:
Top Play(s) – QB Bryson Barnes ($8,300) Barnes gets the nod because the QB options are unappealing on this slate, and he projects decently at 25.4 points which is the highest on the slate. And to get this out of the way, yes, I believe this *can* be a 1-QB lineup slate. That tends to happen when Jeremiyah Love projects better than all quarterbacks with the exception of Barnes.
Bargain Bin – TE Broc Lane ($4,100) Lane was trending upwards until his goose egg performance against New Mexico, only playing 20% of the team snaps. Don’t see an injury tag, so assuming he was scripted out of the game with New Mexico up double-digits and dominating the time of possession 38 min to 21 min. 15 of Lane’s 17 receptions this season have come in the last four games.
Pivot Play – RB Miles Davis ($5,600) Davis projects really well this week, facing a defense that is 116th in stuff rate, 101st in rush D success rate and 83rd in limiting explosive runs. Nevada gives up just over 30 fantasy points a game to opposing backfields, so having one of Davis or RB Javen Jacobs ($4,500) is a logical strategy. Jacobs doesn’t have the rushing chops that Davis does but excels as a receiver out of the backfield with at least two receptions in all but one game this season.
Best of the Rest – WR Braden Pegan ($5,600) or WR Brady Boyd ($4,500) Not sure the game script will be there for us to be able to stack Pegan and Boyd together as Utah State is a heavy favorite, but these two receivers almost never leave the field for the Aggies. Pegan and Boyd account for over 50% of the team’s receiving production and exactly 50% of the target share. The next closest WR on the team has just 10 catches.
Injury Notes – n/a
Nevada:
Top Play(s) – A Nevada WR. There’s an argument to be made that we want some exposure to the Nevada passing game as Utah State is giving up over 54 fantasy points per game to opposing WR rooms – by far the most on the slate. WR Marshaun Brown ($3,400) has been Nevada’s best receiver the last two weeks since entering the starting lineup with 110 yards receiving on 11 catches. WR Marcus Bellon ($4,000) missed two games due to injury in Week’s 7 and 8 yet still leads the team in targets (34). Bellon finished third on the team last year in receptions, yards and touchdowns. WR Dakota Thomas ($3,500) has led the Wolfpack in targets in each of the last two games. It really comes down to the quarterback play.
Fade – QB Carter Jones ($6,000) Jones has made three starts this season so far after taking over for Chubba Purdy, with two of said performances being downright awful. Last time out, the freshman threw for just 145 yards with three interceptions against Boise State. Turnovers were again an issue in his first start against San Diego State, tossing two picks in the loss to the Aztecs. Utah State allows 28.9 FPPG to quarterbacks which is most on the slate, but Jones could instantly sink your lineups if he plays close to what he’s done in the last three starts.
Bargain Bin – TE Jett Carpenter ($3,100) Carpenter is first on the team in routes run, second in targets (33) and leads the Wolfpack in receptions (22). Not stacking Nevada pass-catchers, but any of the four we’ve listed here work as supplemental lineup selections.
Best of the Rest – RBs. I’ll be honest, once we get to Week 11 of the fantasy season, some teams start to fall off our radar, and Nevada is one of those teams. Particularly when it comes to the run game where Nevada is 99th in line yards, 126th in standard down success rate and 129th in rush play success rate. WR is where we go cheap with Nevada players, and the position to spend down at on this slate.
Injury Notes – n/a
Navy vs. Notre Dame
- Point-Spread: ND -26.5
- O/U Total: 56.5
- Implied Score: ND 41.5 – Navy 15
- Weather: 45 degrees / 55% rain / 6 mph winds
Navy:
There’s two semi-realistic options for Navy in QB Blake Horvath ($8,800) and RB / WR Eli Heidenrich ($6,700) but neither are priced at a point where we can strongly consider them against this Notre Dame defense. The Irish clearly corrected the issues plaguing them in the month of September, having allow just 12.2 PPG over the last five games, and the offenses faced in that stretch were no slouches either. Notre Dame won’t see many / any surprises Saturday either with the triple-option, having faced it on a yearly basis. If Navy struggled against North Texas last week, we find it difficult to believe they’ll be significantly better against ND.
Notre Dame:
Top Play(s) – RB Jeremiyah Love ($9,500) Love absolutely watched film this week of North Texas running back Caleb Hawkins running for 197 yards and four touchdowns against this Navy defense last week and is licking his chops. Lock it in.
Fade – RB Jadarian Price ($6,600) I wonder how much run Price gets this week after averaging just 1.2 YPC against Boston College last Saturday and after his costly fumble in the red zone. Wet conditions won’t give the coaches more motivation to get Price on the field after fumbling in two of the last three games.
Bargain Bin – WRs. They’re all cheap, so pick your favorite between Malachi Fields, Jordan Faison or Will Pauling, but will be dependent on the weather with rain expected in the forecast. Navy is giving up just over 41 fantasy points per game to WR groups this season and have allowed three 100-yard receivers over the last four games. Boundary receivers have given Navy the most fits – Temple’s Kajiya Hollawayne (9-146-1) and Florida Atlantic’s Jayshon Platt (5-121-1) – so perhaps this is a Faison or Fields game to exploit the secondary.
Pivot Play – QB CJ Carr ($8,100) If the rain holds off, we do like Carr as a pivot away from Jeremiyah Love. Navy is 115th in yards allowed through the air, 114th in yards allowed per attempt, 105th in QB rating by opposing QBs, and giving up over 22 FPPG to quarterbacks.
Injury Notes – n/a
LSU vs. Alabama
- Point-Spread: Ala -10.5
- O/U Total: 49.5
- Implied Score: Ala 30 – LSU 19.5
- Weather: 68 degrees / 17% rain / 4 mph winds
LSU:
Top Play(s) – TE Trey’Dez Green ($4,600) Green has been the bright spot in what has otherwise been an abysmal offensive season for the Tigers, scoring a touchdown in each of the last three games. We would suggest one LSU player maximum per lineup – the Tigers have not scored more than three touchdowns against a single FBS opponent this season, and we don’t anticipate that changing on the road at Alabama.
Fade – QB Garrett Nussmeier ($7,300) Alabama’s pass defense is borderline elite, ranking No. 2 in the SEC, giving up just 163 YPG through the air and only 14.9 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. Reading the game preview from the LSU 247 site, the beat writer predicted double-digit carries for both of the LSU running backs. A slower paced game means we have zero interest in the Nuss Bus.
Bargain Bin – WR Aaron Anderson ($3,900) Anderson has dealt with injury much of the year, but his 49.3% of snaps played against Texas A&M was the most he saw the field since Week 3 of the season, finishing with nine targets. The strength of the Alabama secondary is limiting big plays, ranked 21st in explosive pass plays allowed, which doesn’t impact Anderson who handles many of the short to intermediate throws from Nussmeier with a 7.0 aDOT.
Pivot Play – RB Harlem Berry ($4,600) The 4-star freshman got the starting nod ahead of Caden Durham against Texas A&M and rushed for 59 yards and a touchdown on nine attempts. The beat writer for LSU predicted double-digit rushing attempts for Berry on Saturday in his game preview. Does that mean start up Berry on Saturday? No, LSU is 111th in line yards and 112th in rush play success rate, but $4.6k for a starting running back is somewhat playable.
Best of the Rest – WR Barion Brown ($4,100) We like Green and Anderson better in this matchup, but Brown continues to pace the LSU WR room, leading the team in target (52), receptions (36) and routes run.
Injury Notes – n/a
Alabama:
Top Play(s) – QB Ty Simpson ($9,200) This game is really ugly from a DFS perspective. Simpson has a solid projection but is expensive for said projection. Alabama’s run game stinks. And all four of Alabama’s top wide receivers are back healthy after the bye week so the targets should get spread around evenly. Simpson is the safest choice of the group, but even he is facing a defense that allows just 18 FPPG to quarterbacks.
Fade – RB Jam Miller ($7,000) There’s some Alabama writers that are predicting a bounce back from the run game this week coming out of the bye. Blind hope? Why are we to believe in a $7k Jam Miller that has averaged two yards per carry in his last two games? The Tide are 98th in rush success rate facing an LSU defense that gives up just 20.9 FPPG to opposing backfields.
Bargain Bin – TE Josh Cuevas ($3,400) A true dart throw here with very limited upside just to save salary. Cuevas is second on the team in routes run with at least two receptions in every game this season. LSU has struggled to defend the position, allowing 12.6 FPPG to tight ends.
Pivot Play – RB Daniel Hill ($4,500) If we are to believe the reports that Alabama establishes the run game on Saturday, the play would be to spend down for Hill at $4.5k as he’s been implemented more into the game plan the last three week with 16 of his 22 rushing attempts in that timeframe. Hill displayed his pass-catching abilities against South Carolina in Week 9 with 4-76-0 on five targets.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Everyone is healthy coming out of the bye week, aside from potentially Ryan Williams who was listed as probable on the injury report but is expected to play per On3. LSU hasn’t faced many prolific passing offenses this season, but as a team, the Tigers are limiting opposing WR groups to just 26.1 FPPG, with not a single wideout posting more than 70 yards against them. At max, limit one Alabama receiver per lineup, and potentially none if everyone is a go like they should be.
Injury Notes – WR Ryan Williams (probable)
Florida vs. Kentucky
- Point-Spread: UF -3
- O/U Total: 44
- Implied Score: UF 23.5 – UK 20.5
- Weather: 56 degrees / 10% rain / 5 mph winds
Florida:
Top Play(s) – RB Jadan Baugh ($7,300) Why is this game on any DFS slate? Between On3 and 247, there is not a single game preview of this matchup, with the content geared towards the Florida coaching search or recruiting or the basketball team. Florida’s season may be in the dumpster, but Baugh continues to run well with touchdowns in four of his last five games. Kentucky is a middle of the road SEC run defense in terms of yards allowed per game but have given up the second most rushing touchdowns in the conference to only Arkansas.
Fade – QB DJ Lagway ($6,900) Still waiting for the day in which Lagway scores 20 fantasy points in a game. Probably won’t be this year and is unlikely to happen this week with Florida down its two best receivers due to injury.
Bargain Bin – WR Vernell Brown III ($4,800) Brown was rolling prior to the injury with 70 or more yards in three straight games, averaging over 14 yards per catch out of the slot. He’ll be the certified WR1 with the Wilson’s out of the lineup and won’t share snaps with anyone in the slot.
Best of the Rest – WR J. Michael Sturdivant ($3,500) There wasn’t much production to show for it, but JMS ran the most routes of any Florida receiver last week vs. Georgia, playing a season-high 81.3% of the offensive snaps. We imagine his role will remain the same this week with the depleted WR room.
Injury Notes – RB Ja’Kobi Jackson (out), RB Treyaun Webb (out), WR Eugene Wilson III (out), WR Dallas Wilson (out)
Kentucky:
Top Play(s) – RB Seth McGowan ($5,500) This has the feeling of a slow-paced matchup with both teams looking to establish the run game on Saturday. While McGowan only had 53 yards against Auburn last weekend, the 21 rushing attempts is eye-opening considering he was questionable coming into the contest. The Kentucky run game looks bad in the last month, but that’s with facing three top 10 run defenses in Georgia, Texas and Auburn. 70 yards and a touchdown is a reasonable expectation for McGowan if he gets another 20 touches this week.
Fade – QB Cutter Boley ($7,200) Last week against Auburn confirmed any suspicion that the 5-TD performance from Boley against Tennessee the week prior was just a one-off example of facing a bad defense. Florida is not Auburn, but the Gators are also substantially better than Tennessee on that side of the ball. Zero interest in either QB in this game.
Bargain Bin – WR Kendrick Law ($3,400) All of the UK receivers are cheap, but Law stands out above the rest as the one WR that is not rotating at all in the starting lineup. And why would he with touchdowns in three of his last four games played? The Gators have allowed a 100-yard receiver in each of the last two games, both of which are track stars like Kendrick Law in Georgia’s Zachariah Branch and Mississippi State’s Brenen Thompson.
Injury Notes – RB Jamarion Wilcox (out), WR Troy Stellato (out)
Mike’s DK Core Four:
- RB Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame
- A Clemson WR
- RB Keyjuan Brown, Louisville
- WR Chris Bell, Louisville
Mike’s FD Core Four:
- RB Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame
- WR Chris Bell, Louisville
- RB Seth McGowan, Kentucky
- QB Ty Simpson, Alabama
