West Virginia vs. Cincinnati
Point-Spread: Cin -5.5
O/U Total: 56.5
Implied Score: Cin 31 – WVU 25.5
Weather: 60 degrees / 22% rain / 6 mph winds
West Virginia:
Top Play(s) – RB Jahiem White ($4,600) This was not the breakout sophomore campaign that some folks projected from White as he has not broken free from the committee approach in the backfield with RB CJ Donaldson ($4,100). White gets the nod because of his explosive ability, able to turn two yards into 20 in the blink of an eye but won’t see more than 15 touches in a given week. Cincinnati hasn’t allowed a ton of fantasy points to running backs this season, but the Bearcats are just 109th in rush D success rate. Having one of White or Donaldson in a lineup is the best play on the West Virginia side of things.
Fade – WR Preston Fox ($3,300) The one-time starter at the beginning of the season is completely out of the WR rotation, seeing single-digit snaps in each of the last two games played.
Bargain Bin – TE Kole Taylor ($3,500) Third on the team in targets (33), while second in receptions (25) and routes run. Cincinnati has not allowed a tight end to score more than 6 fantasy points all season, but tight end usage isn’t prevalent much in the Big 12. Taylor is on the field nearly 80% of the team’s total snaps.
Pivot Play – QB Nicco Marchiol ($6,800) Solid performance from Marchiol in the win over Arizona last week, completing 82% of his throws for 198 yards and two scores, while adding 41 yards on the ground on 13 attempts. Marchiol is on par with Garrett Greene as far as athleticism goes, as they would run the sophomore at times even when Greene was in the lineup. Five QBs have scored at least 20 fantasy points on Cincinnati this season.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Seems like we have a clear pecking order at receiver among the top three with Hudson Clement, Traylon Ray and Rodney Gallagher who are on the field over 60% of the time. Clement and Ray being the priorities of the three, with six of the team’s 13 receiving touchdowns. Ray has come on a bit of late with three receiving touchdowns in the last four games played. Five receivers have scored at least 22 fantasy points against Cincinnati this season, four of which play on the boundary where Clement and Ray line up.
Injury Notes – QB Garrett Greene is unlikely to play on Saturday.
Cincinnati:
Top Play(s) – WR Xzavier Henderson ($6,700) I actually think our projection currently is a touch low on Henderson who leads the team in every receiving category through eight games. Part of that is due to prior performance, catching just one pass on six targets vs. Colorado last week, but that’s what tends to happen when lined up across from Travis Hunter the entire game. Three receivers have scored 29 or more fantasy points this season against the Mountaineers, including 36 fantasy points from Tet McMillan in Week 9. Henderson is a high floor / high upside play this week.
Fade – Backups. Cincinnati’s top three wideouts are playing 80% or more of the team’s offensive snaps currently and Corey Kiner accounts for 60% of backfield market share.
Bargain Bin – WR Tony Johnson ($3,600) Three touchdowns in the last four games for the FAU transfer who ranks third on the team in targets (40) and tied atop the Cincinnati leaderboard with four receiving TDs. 31 of Johnson’s 40 targets this season have come in the last four games alone.
Pivot Play – QB Brendan Sorsby ($7,900) Sorsby’s fantasy production seemed to dip once he suffered the ankle injury that limited his running abilities. That said, this is the second worst pass defense in the Big 12 in West Virginia, allowing 261 YPG through the air and rank 120th in pass D success rate. On paper, this is a great matchup.
Best of the Rest – RB Corey Kiner ($5,900) Shocking that Kiner has just two rushing touchdowns this season despite dominating the backfield volume share as we alluded to above. Won’t kill your lineups, rushing for 70 or more yards in all but two games this season, but there’s a cap to his upside. WR Jamoi Mayes ($3,100) is WAY too cheap for a player that has been on the field for 90% of the team’s snaps in three of the last four games. He’s definitely an option at this price. TE Joe Royer ($4,000) is second on the team in receptions (36), targets (54) and touchdowns (3). Four tight ends have scored double-digit fantasy points vs. the Mountaineers this season.
Injury Notes – n/a
Syracuse vs. Boston College
Point-Spread: BC -2
O/U Total: 53
Implied Score: BC 27.5 – Syra 25.5
Weather: 51 degrees / 2% rain / 9 mph winds
Syracuse:
Top Play(s) – WR Trebor Pena ($6,100) In times of dysfunction, which is where the Syracuse offense is at during this stage of the season, I’d lean on the players that have been most consist throughout the year. Pena has at least five receptions in all but one game this season, averaging 8.75 targets per game.
Fade – WR Umari Hatcher ($3,600) Seems like Umari Hatcher effectively lost his starting spot last week to WR Justus Ross-Simmons ($5,300) who caught two touchdowns in the win over Virginia Tech. Unless I missed an injury, Hatcher was targeted just once and ran four routes last Saturday.
Bargain Bin – n/a. No Syracuse player under $5k is playable.
Pivot Play – RB Lequint Allen ($8,100) Unsurprisingly after Kyle McCord’s disasterous performance against Pitt, Syracuse got back to the basics and handed the ball off to their best player in Allen, who rushed for 121 yards and three scores against Virginia Tech. Allen’s performance also came when the Orange were down 17-0 at halftime so the concerns of game script shouldn’t be a factor here. BC is 24th in rush D success rate, but also allowed 52 fantasy points just two weeks ago to Va Tech’s Bhayshul Tuten. BC allowed 25 points the week prior to that to Louisville’s Isaac Brown.
Best of the Rest – TE Oronde Gadsden (5,000) This should be a plus-matchup for Gadsden facing a BC defense that is giving up 10 FPPG to opposing tight ends on the year. Gadsden was a nonce factor against Virginia Tech last week, but still played his normal allotment of snaps. I think we’re seeing the real QB Kyle McCord ($9,000) now that defenses have tape on him and this Syracuse system. BC has yet to allow a QB to score more than 25 fantasy points against them this season but do rank 95th in pass D success rate so he’s not a complete fade. I’d avoid multiple Syracuse pass-catchers in the same lineup with how McCord has played of late.
Injury Notes – n/a
Boston College:
Top Play(s) – QB Thomas Castellanos ($6,600) Castellanos will be the popular spend-down option at the quarterback position on the slate. We know his running abilities but should be able to throw on a Syracuse defense that is allowing 21 FPPG to quarterbacks and are 107th in pass D success rate.
Fade – See injury notes.
Bargain Bin – TE Kamari Morales ($3,800) The North Carolina transfer has become a more integral part of the offense the last three weeks with 13 of his 18 total receptions coming in that span, with two touchdowns in the last three games.
Pivot Play – RB Kye Robichaux ($4,100) or RB Treshaun Ward ($4,700) Not the ideal matchup to stack both, but each were productive in the Week 9 loss to Louisville. Robichaux is listed atop the current depth chart and has had a pair of rushing touchdowns in the last two games. Ward gets a bump when Turbo Richard is out of the lineup, leading BC with 13 attempts vs. Louisville, along with 80 receiving yards and a touchdown. Both are options, especially if Richard is out of the lineup and this doesn’t become a three-way committee.
Best of the Rest – WR Lewis Bond ($5,100) or WR Reed Harris ($3,300) Bond is seeing consistent targets on a week-to-week basis, with seven or more in each of the last five games. Harris seems to have taken the starting spot in the lineup ahead of Jaedn Skeete, playing 90% of the offensive snaps in Week 9. That was a season high. The volume is low with just five catches on 15 total targets but is still averaging over 44 yards per catch with a 23.3 aDOT.
Injury Notes – RB Turbo Richard ($3,500) HC Bill O’Brien said on Monday that it will go right up until game time whether Richard plays or not. Easy avoid with that scenario.
Miami vs. Georgia Tech
Point-Spread: UM -11
O/U Total: 64
Implied Score: UM 37.5 – GT 26.5
Weather: 70 degrees / 28% rain / 10 mph winds
Miami:
Top Play(s) – RB Mark Fletcher ($3,900) From a point per price standpoint, I still maintain that Fletcher is the best Miami option, scoring double-digit fantasy points in each of the last four games as he’s a 1B to Damien Martinez ($6,100). Why his salary went down this week I’m not sure given his role in the offense in the last month. I’d be somewhat hesitant, though, about loading up on Miami running backs in your lineups as GT’s strength is stopping the run. No running back has scored more than 19 fantasy points this season against the Yellow Jackets.
Fade – n/a. Every Miami player is priced appropriately (except for Fletcher).
Bargain Bin – WR Jacolby George ($3,900) or WR Sam Brown Jr. ($3,200) Production isn’t always there Miami’s WR3 and WR4, but they’re still on the field a bunch. George played 70% of the team’s snaps vs. Duke last week and has now surpassed double-digit fantasy points in four of the last five games. Brown’s playing time did take a dip last week, only on the field 48% of the game against the Blue Devils.
Pivot Play – WR Isaiah Horton ($5,200) A bit underpriced here as the team’s WR2 with 46 receptions on 64 targets. Four of the top five highest scoring receivers against GT this season have all played on the outside where Horton resides.
Best of the Rest – QB Cam Ward ($10,600) Don’t think it’s fiscally responsible to play Ward this week despite having the second-highest QB projection on the slate behind Bryson Daily, unless your game-stacking with Georgia Tech. The secondary is definitely the weakness of the Georgia Tech defense, ranking 86th in EPA per pass play and 82nd in success rate. The Yellow Jackets are only allowing 21 FPPG to opposing QBs, though. Two QBs have scored over 30 fantasy points against Georgia Tech – Kyle McCord and Jacolby Criswell – but both were in trailing positions at one point during the game. Not sure Miami will be trailing against GT. TE Elijah Arroyo ($3,300) has not been a factor for around a month now with just 35 receiving yards in three games, but faces a GT defense that has allowed three tight ends to score at least 16 fantasy points this season. WR Xavier Restrepo ($7,500) is an option each week at this salary, now with 100+ yards in three of the last four games.
Injury Notes – n/a
Georgia Tech:
Top Play(s) – WR Eric Singleton ($4,700) Most team’s have been in a trailing position when playing Miami, so the receivers have been able to rack up the fantasy points on the secondary…some of which obviously in garbage time. Singleton has been solid as a sophomore, ranking second on the team in targets (66) and receptions (41). I prefer him over Rutherford because of the big-play ability, with his 13.0 aDOT being the highest on the team.
Fade – QB Haynes King ($8,500) King is expected to return on Saturday, though is being officially designated as a game-time decision. That alone is likely worth a fade if King is not at 100%. Looking at the Miami defense, the Canes are giving up just 17.4 FPPG to opposing QBs on the season, and there could be some rust for a QB that hasn’t played since Week 7.
Bargain Bin – WR Chase Lane ($3,200) Unlikely to play Lane with a 2.8-point projection, but the team’s WR3 doesn’t leave the field either, playing over 80% of the offensive snaps this season. He’s not the worst throw-in candidate if you have $3.2k left to spend.
Pivot Play – RB Jamal Haynes ($6,000) The overall numbers are good for the Miami run D, ranking 30th nationally in success rate, and allowing just 3.6 YPC for the season. Running backs, particularly ones from the ACC, have given the Canes some trouble, though, where four players have scored at least 18 fantasy points in their respective matchups. Each of those four performances have come in the last four weeks. I’d be willing to play Haynes in some GPP lineups with likely low ownership.
Best of the Rest – WR Malik Rutherford ($4,600) Team leader in targets (67) and receptions (50). Duke had two receivers last week score 18 or more fantasy points against Miami, so not out of the realm of possibilities to stack Rutherford and Singleton in the same lineup as they account for 50% of the team’s receiving production – though also not necessarily advisable either.
Injury Notes – n/a
Minnesota vs. Rutgers
Point-Spread: Minn -6.5
O/U Total: 46.5
Implied Score: Minn 26.5 – Rutg 20
Weather: 58 degrees / 4% rain / 5 mph winds
Minnesota:
Top Play(s) – RB Darius Taylor ($8,700) The Rutgers run defense not only is among the worst in the Big Ten, but in the country, allowing 167 yards per game on the ground and are 124th in rush D success rate. RBs are averaging over 36 FPPG against the Scarlet Knights, almost 30% above their seasonal average when facing Rutgers. Taylor is a top play on the slate.
Fade – RB Marcus Major ($3,900) Unless Minnesota jumps out to a massive lead, we don’t see Major being a viable option as he’s failed to score more than 10 fantasy points since Week 2. The former Oklahoma transfer is on the field just 20% of the time.
Bargain Bin – WR Elijah Spencer ($3,800) Minnesota throws the ball in three directions when they drop back to pass – Jackson, Spencer or Taylor. Spencer has looked like the former AAC freshman of the year back in 2021 at Charlotte in the last three weeks, with 15 receptions on 20 targets and three TDs.
Pivot Play – QB Max Brosmer ($6,000) Last two games the Rutgers defense has allowed a combined 68 fantasy points to quarterbacks. Those two quarterbacks are Ethan Garbers who isn’t in the top 75 among college fantasy QBs, and Miller Moss who was just benched at USC. If Rutgers loads up to stop the run, Brosmer has proven capable enough to score 20 fantasy points this season, which is all he’d need here at this salary to hit value.
Best of the Rest – WR Daniel Jackson ($5,500) Not often can we pair a running back and receiver from the same team in a lineup together, but that is feasible with Jackson and Taylor, given how central they are to Minnesota’s offensive production. Now fully healthy, Jackson is well on his way to another 100-target season, now with double-digit targets in each of the last three games.
Injury Notes – n/a
Rutgers:
Top Play(s) – RB Kyle Monangai ($7,400) We’ll have to just make sure that Monangai is a go for Saturday as he’ll likely be listed as questionable, dealing with a head injury. Hasn’t caused him to miss any playing time to this point, and the bye week should have helped, but HC Greg Schiano did mention that none of his starters will be 100% healthy until after the season. RBs have found a fair amount of success against Minnesota this season, with three B1G running backs surpassing 23 fantasy points against the Gophers.
Fade – QB Athan Kaliakmanis ($5,300) I feel like Mike Tomlin right now in his most infamous quote video saying, “We do not care.” That’s how I am viewing Athan Kalikamanis after throwing for a season high 313 yards and a touchdown vs. USC in Week 9. Don’t care. That’s good for a 3-4 game slate which that was on a Friday night. Not a Main Slate, facing a Minnesota defense that is allowing just 11 FPPG to quarterbacks and are 13th in EPA per pass play defensively.
Bargain Bin – WR KJ Duff ($3,400) Against USC, the freshman receiver was second on the team in targets (6), playing 66% of the team’s offensive snaps which was second behind Dymere Miller. At this point in the season, Rutgers has fully flipped the switch it seems like and is playing younger options like Duff ahead of the likes of Christian Dremel, Chris Long and others.
Pivot Play – WR Dymere Miller ($4,000) When’s the last time we saw a Rutgers receiver break a slate? The Monmouth transfer was outstanding against USC in Week 9 with 11 receptions for 131 yards on 20 targets in the loss to the Trojans. Those 20 targets equated to 46% of the pass attempts that night.
Best of the Rest – n/a. Monangai, Miller and Duff are the only realistic options.
Injury Notes – Stay aware of any Kyle Monangai injury notes.
Florida vs. Texas
Point-Spread: Tex -21.5
O/U Total: 47.5
Implied Score: Tex 34.5 – UF 13
Weather: 66 degrees / 26% rain / 6 mph winds
Florida:
Injuries will dictate who is an option for Florida this week. I think we all saw last Saturday that if Aidan Warner is forced to play QB against the No. 1 ranked Longhorn secondary, we’re out on the entire Florida passing game. Reports are that DJ Lagway is pushing to play, and was at practice for portions open to the media, but seems unlikely after he was carted off against Georgia a week ago. With Elijhah Badger being questionable, and Eugene Wilson out for the season, maybe we give WR Chimere Dike ($3,500) or WR Aidan Mizell ($3,300) a look, but that’s really only if DJ Lagway plays. In the backfield, Montrell Johnson is questionable yet again, so it’s likely the Gators will be forced to lean on RB Jadan Baugh ($4,000) and RB Ja’Kobi Jackson ($3,300) who did rush for 138 yards and a touchdown vs. a similarly ranked Georgia run defense. Regardless of the QB, this will likely be a run-based offensive script for the Gators on Saturday.
Texas:
Top Play(s) – RB Tre Wisner ($5,000) About $1k too cheap for Texas’ RB1 in a matchup favored by double-digits. The Gators are allowing around 30 FPPG combined to opposing backfields this season but are 97th in rush D success rate and 79th in EPA per rush play. Texas should win the battle of the trenches.
Fade – WR Silas Bolden ($3,300) Oregon State’s leading receiver in 2023 likely got paid a decent chunk of $$$ coming to Austin but has not made the impact that many thought he would this season. Bolden has just one touchdown reception on the year – a garbage time TD in the Week 1 opener – and played just 20% of the snaps last time out vs. Vanderbilt.
Bargain Bin – TE Gunnar Helm ($3,200) Not sure why a tight end that leads his team in targets (35) and receptions (31) is priced at $3.2k. Helm has at least four receptions in each of the last four games. Florida is allowing 11.2 FPPG to opposing tight ends this season. WR Ryan Wingo ($3,200) is also absurdly priced for a player that saw 77% of the team’s offensive snaps vs. Vanderbilt in Week 9.
Pivot Play – RB Jaydon Blue ($5,400) Blue should not be priced ahead of Tre Wisner given their current roles in the backfield, but that doesn’t mean Blue is out of the equation, scoring double-digit fantasy points in two of the three games since his demotion. Would assume Blue sees plenty of action both as a runner and receiver out of the backfield with Texas being a three-touchdown favorite.
Best of the Rest – QB Quinn Ewers ($8,500) No strong opinion on Ewers this week one way or the other. Florida is allowing just 17.6 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks and are a middle-of-the-road secondary. WR Isaiah Bond ($4,800) is probable this week with Texas coming off the bye. Any one of Bond, Wingo, DeAndre Moore Jr. or Matthew Golden are options because of their lower salaries.
Injury Notes – n/a
Purdue vs. Ohio State
Point-Spread: OSU -37.5
O/U Total: 53.5
Implied Score: OSU 45.5 – Purd 8
Weather: 58 degrees / 17% rain / 6 mph winds
Purdue:
Two quarterbacks will see the field for the Boilermakers against Ohio State, and the Buckeyes are the No. 2 run defense in the Big Ten, so we can gloss right over the QBs and RBs for Purdue. We’re unlikely to roster any Purdue options with the lowest implied team total on the slate, but the Boilermakers have four pass-catchers that play a lot and are all cheap. TE Max Klare ($4,100) leads the team in targets (45) and receptions (30). WR Jahmal Edrine ($4,000) played 97% of the team’s offensive snaps vs. Northwestern last week, nabbing his second touchdown in three games. WR Jaron Tibbs ($3,800) was targeted seven times last Saturday and leads all Purdue wideouts in routes run. And lastly, WR CJ Smith ($3,500), a Georgia transfer, played 66% of the snaps last week, catching four passes for 55 yards on five targets.
Ohio State:
Top Play(s) – QB Will Howard ($8,100) Last week was the first time all season that Howard failed to score 20 fantasy points in a game. Expect the OSU QB1 to get another streak started of 20 or more fantasy points on Saturday vs. the Boilermakers who are ranked 126th nationally in pass D success rate and giving up 25.2 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks.
Fade – n/a. All Buckeyes are priced appropriately.
Bargain Bin – WR Carnell Tate ($3,500) or WR Brandon Innis ($3,100) Felt like we’re getting a little repetitive with Tate being written about here, so let’s also include Innis who caught a touchdown on three targets vs. Penn State on Saturday. If the former 4-star is getting targets in a crucial matchup vs. the Nittany Lions, why wouldn’t he see some run in a likely blowout?
Pivot Play – Ohio State RBs. I wanted to put Judkins and / or Henderson in the fade portion of this writeup but go look back at some of Ohio State’s blowouts this season, and you’ll see both running backs putting up very respectable numbers even in those situations. Purdue is collectively allowing 42.3 FPPG to opposing backfields this season and are dead last in the conference in yards allowed per game on the ground.
Best of the Rest – WR Emeka Egbuka ($6,600) or WR Jeremiah Smith ($7,100) Just a hunch, but Smith has been relatively quiet over the last two weeks with just seven receptions and one touchdown, failing to find the end-zone for the first time all year against the Nittany Lions. Me thinks Smith reverts to form this Saturday.
Injury Notes – n/a
Army vs. North Texas
Point-Spread: Army -5.5
O/U Total: 63.5
Implied Score: Army 34.5 – UNT 29
Weather: 66 degrees / 22% rain / 9 mph winds
Army:
Top Play(s) – QB Bryson Daily ($9,500) You know that meme on the internet from Grand Theft Auto where the video game character says, “ah sh!t, here we go again”? That applies this week with Army back on the Main Slate and Bryson Daily being our highest projected player of the entire week in College Fantasy Football. HC Jeff Monken called Daily “somewhere between questionable and probable” for Saturday, so either we hit big and win a GPP, or have to alter our entire lineups that morning. North Texas is allowing around 27 FPPG to opposing QBs and have deficiencies everywhere on defense.
Fade – Players beyond the Core 4. Bryson Daily, Kanye Udoh and Noah Short account for 77% of the team’s rushing yards. Short and Casey Reynolds account for 76% of Army’s receiving yards. The only player we’d potentially consider beyond that is Dewayne Coleman because Bryson Daily is announced out.
Bargain Bin – WR Casey Reynolds ($3,800) Reynolds leads the team with 11 receptions on 18 targets with three of the eight total receiving touchdowns. Had 80+ receiving yards in the two games leading up to last week before the Bryson Daily injury. He’s considerable if Daily plays. Not so much if its Coleman.
Pivot Play – RB Kanye Udoh ($5,900) Monster performance last week against Air Force with 158 yards and two scores on 22 rushing attempts, all of which were season-highs. Udoh is a good play regardless, but a must-have if Daily is out of the lineup as we saw last week. The last three running backs that North Texas has faced in the last three weeks all have scored 27 or more fantasy points against the Mean Green.
Best of the Rest – RB Noah Short ($5,300) Short is the Swiss Army Knife for the Army offense, averaging over 11 yards per carry on the ground and second on the team in receptions and targets. Multiple pathways for Short to hit value because of his usage within this offensive system.
Injury Notes – Bryson Daily watch on Saturday.
North Texas:
Top Play(s) – WR DT Sheffield ($7,900) Seven receiving touchdowns in the last five games for Sheffield who also has four 100-yard receiving performances in that span. We don’t believe North Texas will be able to run the football at all on Saturday, and the Mean Green are already Top 10 nationally in pass play percentage. Double-digit targets forthcoming again for Sheffield this week. Wide receivers have done some damage against this Army defense, as teams are usually in a trailing position. Four players have scored 20 or more fantasy points already against the Knights.
Fade – RBs. Don’t even bother looking at this mess of a backfield, you’ll get a headache trying to decipher who to play. Adding another element to the equation is that previous starter Ikaika Ragsdale is back practicing and could add another body to the mix. Army simply does not allow fantasy points to opposing running backs. Combined backfields are averaging just 12.2 FPPG when facing the Knights.
Bargain Bin – WR Blair Conwright ($3,500) or WR Dalton Carnes ($3,800) Conwright, a former TCU transfer, is second on the team with four receiving touchdowns and third in routes run. He’s the team’s second-best deep threat behind Ward, averaging 17.2 YPC and a 14.2 aDOT. Carnes is second in targets (44) and receptions (24) behind Sheffield. Because of North Texas’ high-volume passing game, two or more UNT receivers in a lineup is totally viable.
Pivot Play – WR Damon Ward Jr. ($5,200) Ward returned to the starting lineup after missing the past three games to injury and did not miss a beat, racking up 111 yards and two touchdowns on seven targets, playing 62% of the team’s offensive snaps which was the most of any North Texas wideout. As we’ve seen multiple times this season now – Week 1 being the other – Ward has slate-breaking upside.
Best of the Rest – QB Chandler Morris ($9,400) The 27-point projection keeps Morris in the player pool, but Army has done well in limiting fantasy production from quarterbacks, only allowing 15.4 FPPG to QBs. We’d play a healthy Bryson Daily over Morris, who is separated by just $100.
Injury Notes – n/a
Georgia vs. Mississippi
Point-Spread: UGA -2.5
O/U Total: 56.5
Implied Score: UGA 29.5 – Miss 27
Weather: 70 degrees / 55% rain / 9 mph winds
Georgia:
Top Play(s) – RB Trevor Etienne ($6,500) We don’t have much interest at all on the Georgia side of things, even with an implied team total of four touchdowns. Etienne has been Georgia’s best offensive skill player, but did leave the game vs. Florida last week with a rib injury. He was not listed on the injury report, so we’ll assume he’s good to go for Saturday. That said, can Georgia run on Ole Miss is the question as the Rebels are No. 7 nationally in rush D success rate and No. 6 in EPA per run play.
Fade – QB Carson Beck ($7,500) Maybe Beck will shine when the moments are brightest – he has in the past – but when there are calls to give Jaden Rashada a chance with the surplus of interceptions that the QB1 has thrown this year, we’re tentative to play him. The Rebels are allowing just 15 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks this season, though they did allow the Arkansas backup QB to score 22 fantasy points in garbage time last week.
Bargain Bin – TE Lawson Luckie ($3,400) If Brock Bowers were still on UGA, he’d be a must-start this week against an Ole Miss defense that cannot defend tight ends. Last two games alone Oklahoma’s Bauer Sharp and Arkansas’ Luke Hasz have combined for 38 fantasy points. Ole Miss allows 13 FPPG to opposing tight ends for the season. Luckie has been UGA’s best receiving tight end with three receiving touchdowns on 19 targets. Oscar Delp is still heavily involved in the offensive game plan and can be an option as well.
Pivot Play – RB Nate Frazier ($3,500) Etienne should be fine, but we’ll monitor just in case there’s some lingering impacts from last week with the rib injury. Frazier has been ultra-impressive when given opportunities, such as against Florida with 82 yards and a TD on 19 attempts.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Pure guessing game as to which of Arian Smith, Dom Lovett or Dillon Bell is the receiver to own on a given Saturday. Don’t think this is a game-stack situation, so roll the dice if interested in one in your lineups. Top three highest scoring WRs against Georgia this season play on the outside, which would favor either Smith or Bell.
Injury Notes – n/a
Mississippi:
It’s almost impossible to write up a conclusive Mississippi outlook on a Thursday morning when 26 players are listed on the team’s injury report, including the top three receivers and starting running back. Here’s what we do know. QB Jaxson Dart ($9,600) is too pricey at his 20.9-point projection facing a Georgia defense that is allowing just 15.4 FPPG to opposing QBs. The Rebels are down to a 4th-stringer at running back in RB Domonique Thomas ($4,000) who out-carried RB Ulysses Bentley ($3,200) last week vs. Arkansas. And will now face a Georgia defense that allows under 20 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. WR Tre Harris ($9,300) and WR Jordan Watkins ($4,700) are considered ‘doubtful’ as of Thursday, but we do expect one or both to play given the severity of this matchup with Mississippi’s playoff hopes on the brink. WR Cayden Lee ($4,500) is questionable and WR Antwane Wells ($3,800) has seen his role in the offense reduced since the LSU game.
All of these words to say…we’re going to have to pivot one way or another on Saturday morning depending on pregame reports so don’t finalize your DFS lineups prior to 10 am. If the WR room is intact come Saturday, our interest in Dart increases as a contrarian play because we cannot envision Ole Miss finding much running room with the depleted RB situation. Lane Kiffin is clearly trolling a bit with this laundry list of an Injury Report.
Iowa State vs. Kansas
Point-Spread: ISU -3
O/U Total: 50
Implied Score: ISU 26.5 – KU 23.5
Weather: 57 degrees / 66% rain / 12 mph winds
Iowa State:
Top Play(s) – WR Jayden Higgins ($7,100) and / or WR Jaylin Noel ($6,100) My apologies in advance if the writeups get to be a bit repetitive in November, but sometimes the situations remain the same with teams. And that’s the case at Iowa State where no WR3 has developed and the Cyclones’ starting tight end is out with an injury. Higgins and Noel account for 63% of the team’s target share and 10 of the 13 receiving touchdowns. Four of the top five highest scoring receivers against KU this season have been on the boundary, so that would favor Higgins in this instance.
Fade – WR3. Next closest receiver to Higgins and Noel on the Cyclones roster has just 11 targets for the entire year.
Bargain Bin – RB Carson Hansen ($4,000) We dive more into the Iowa State RB situation below, but Hansen has undoubtedly been the most consistent option in the backfield this season for the Cyclones. Kansas hasn’t given up a ton of fantasy points to running backs this season, but the run defense is the team’s weakness on that side of the ball, ranking 128th in EPA per run play and 119th in success rate.
Pivot Play – RB Abu Sama III ($3,400) Is Abu Sama back? For the first time since Week 5, Sama was on the field more than RB Jaylon Jackson ($3,500) and led the Cyclones in rushing with 74 yards on 13 attempts. This is a full-fledged committee so I’m far from saying Sama is a fantasy option, but I’d definitely play him over Jackson at this rate.
Best of the Rest – QB Rocco Becht ($6,900) The Kansas pass defense is far better than the run D, ranking 47th in EPA per pass and 41st in success rate. Initially saw that Kansas is allowing 23 FPPG to opposing QBs which is a high-ish number. But then you dive in to see who scored all those fantasy points. Garrett Greene, Sam Leavitt and Avery Johnson all scored at least 29 fantasy points in their matchups with Kansas. What’s the similiarity between those three? All can run. Rocco Becht cannot. Not a bad play at this price, but also not someone to prioritize. TE Gabe Burkle ($3,000) stepped in for the injured Ben Brahmer and was targeted six times with four receptions vs. Texas Tech last week.
Injury Notes – TE Benjamin Brahmer was in street clothes with a crutch last week. Safe to say he won’t play this Saturday either.
Kansas:
Top Play(s) – RB Devin Neal ($6,700) This late in the season it becomes school record watch szn. Neal is just seven yards away now from breaking the Kansas all-time rushing record. The senior running back has now found the end-zone in each of the last five games, and his value continues to be boosted with Daniel Hishaw out of the lineup – Hishaw was not even listed on the team depth chart last week. Iowa State has allowed fantasy points in bunches to B12 running backs and are 102nd in rush D success rate.
Fade – TE Trevor Kardell ($3,100) Zero receptions in three of the last four games as the team’s primary blocker at tight end. Kardell played a season-low 33% of snaps vs. Kansas State in Week 9.
Bargain Bin – WR Quentin Skinner ($3,300) Skinner is likely a fade at this point, but we’ll list him because the senior receiver is second on the team in targets (4). That said, Skinner played a season-low 45% of snaps in Week 9 and had just a 40% catch rate with two drops in 2024.
Pivot Play – QB Jalon Daniels ($5,800) Part of me wonders if Jalon Daniels is now fully recovered from the mysterious back injury he had most of 2023 and at times this offseason, because he has over 100 yards rushing combined in the last two weeks. That adds value if Daniels is on the move more, but tough matchup against an Iowa State secondary that is 18th in success rate and No. 6 nationally in EPA per pass play. Just 15 FPPG allowed by Iowa State this season to opposing quarterbacks.
Best of the Rest – WR Luke Grimm ($5,500) or WR Lawrence Arnold ($4,000) Just twice this season has Iowa State allowed a receiver to score more than 12 fantasy points in a game all season, one of which came last week where Texas Tech’s Josh Kelly had 32 fantasy points on 18 targets. Maybe there’s an area to exploit in the slot where Kelly plays against this Iowa State defense? 74% of Grimm’s routes this season have come from the slot. Limit one KU receiver in a lineup.
Injury Notes – We’ll check this week to see if Hishaw is back to being listed on the depth chart, but according to the Kansas City Star, it appears the Kansas RB2 is doubtful for Saturday.
Clemson vs. Virginia Tech
Point-Spread: Clem -6.5
O/U Total: 52.5
Implied Score: Clem 29.5 – VT 23
Weather: 63 degrees / 22% rain / 4 mph winds
Clemson:
Top Play(s) – RB Phil Mafah ($6,500) Mafah is still not priced to a point he should be at on DK, now with three 100-yard performances in the last four weeks. What I loved about last week with Mafah is even in a double-digit loss to Louisville where the Tigers were trailing without, the Clemson RB1 still had 30 carries. Game script doesn’t matter and nobody else for the Tigers is carrying the rock outside of Mafah.
Fade – WR Adam Randall ($4,000) No reason as to why Randall should be priced above freshmen WR T.J. Moore ($3,300) and Bryant Wesco Jr. ($3,100) who are both on the field more each week. Not to mention more productive as Moore / Wesco combined for 20 targets vs. Louisville, compared to just five for Randall. Go with the freshmen.
Bargain Bin – TE Jake Briningstool ($4,000) Team leader in targets (45) and routes run, while second in receptions (32) and receiving touchdowns (4). Virginia Tech has allowed three tight ends this season to score 12 or more fantasy points against them.
Pivot Play – QB Cade Klubnik ($9,300) Worst performance of the season last week for Klubnik and the Clemson offense, throwing for just 228 yards on 56 attempts in the loss to Louisville. The Tigers now need to win out to make the College Football Playoff, will need some help along the way, AND will likely need to win convincingly to improve the ‘eye test.’ Aka, Clemson has to score some points in these remaining games. Va Tech’s secondary is the strength of the defense, allowing just 17.8 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks and are 35th in EPA per pass play defensively.
Best of the Rest – WR Antonio Williams ($5,600) Team leader in receiving touchdowns (6) and receptions (34), while trailing Briningstool by just one with 44 targets. Virginia Tech has done well in limiting WR production this season, giving up just 30 fantasy points per game collectively to opposing wide receiver rooms. Limit to just one Clemson receiver in a lineup.
Injury Notes – n/a
Virginia Tech:
Top Play(s) – RB Bhayshul Tuten ($8,300) Preface this entire writeup for Virginia Tech that we probably won’t have much exposure here because of the injury clouds hovering over several players and the matchup with Clemson. Tuten sat out last week vs. Syracuse, but practice reports on Wednesday suggest the RB1 was back on the field and without any limitations. That’s different than the blue non-contact jersey he’s been wearing much of the year. Clemson’s run defense is undoubtedly the weakness on that side of the ball, ranked 78th in success rate (improved since September) and 121st in EPA per run play.
Fade – QB Kyron Drones ($7,500) This is the injury concern I’m a bit more tentative about. Drones to Collin Schlee is not a huge drop off, and Drones’ injury is his foot, which is obviously a big part of why he is fantasy relevant is his running ability. Would not be surprised to see both QBs. Clemson is only allowing 16.7 FPPG to quarterbacks this season as it is.
Bargain Bin – WR Stephen Gosnell ($3,100) Gosnell was on his way to a career-day against Syracuse with 100+ receiving yards in the first half before a big hit knocked him out for the remainder of the game. Gosnell was seen this week in the patented blue non-contact jersey dealing with bruised ribs. He’s arguably been one of Va Tech’s top two receivers, but the injury concerns will lead to lower ownership.
Pivot Play – WR Jaylin Lane ($5,200) or WR Da’Quan Felton ($3,500) Felton has been a relative bust in 2024 after the way he closed last season, now with just two touchdowns and 242 receiving yards despite his 6-foot-5 frame. Still leads the Hokies in targets, including a season-high eight targets last week vs. the Cuse. He’s upgraded if Gosnell sits. Lane will likely have next to no ownership because of his salary, ranked second on the team in targets (44) and first in receptions (29).
Best of the Rest – Replacements. Stay tuned to the injury reports pregame because we may need to act quickly if some of the starters are limited or out. Malachi Thomas and Jeremiah Coney would share duties if Tuten sits. Collin Schlee is a similar style QB to Drones as a dual threat but seems as though Drones handled most / all of the 1st-team practice reps on Wednesday. Ali Jennings (remember that name) would be the beneficiary if Gosnell is out.
Injury Notes – Tuten, Drones and Gosnell are on injury watch.
Michigan vs. Indiana
Point-Spread: IU -13.5
O/U Total: 48.5
Implied Score: IU 31 – UM 17.5
Weather: 62 degrees / 40% rain / 8 mph winds
Michigan:
Top Play(s) – TE Colston Loveland ($4,800) Even with poor quarterback play, and completely inept play-calling by what should be one-and-done offensive coordinator Kirk Campbell, Loveland continues to show he’s a top 3 tight end in the country, now with 20 or more fantasy points in each of the last two games. Imagine playing with a walk-on quarterback, against the No. 1 team in the country in Oregon, with zero help at wide receiver, and you still post a season-high in receiving yards. Loveland will be a first-round NFL Draft pick this spring.
Fade – QBs. No explanation needed. Bryce Underwood, please c’mon down this recruiting cycle.
Bargain Bin – WR Tyler Morris ($3,300) Have noticed a bit more involvement from Morris the last several weeks, playing 90% of the team’s offensive snaps in Week 9 vs. Michigan State, and then finishing the end-zone for the second time this season against Oregon on four targets. Safe to assume Michigan will be in a trailing position at some point against the Hoosiers. Saturday.
Pivot Play – RB Donovan Edwards ($4,000) Two straight games now that Edwards has looked like the better option between he and Mullings in the Michigan backfield, though neither are all that appealing against the Indiana defense that ranks No. 1 in the B1G in yards allowed per game on the ground. The Hoosiers have allowed just six carries of 20+ yards or more to opponents in 2024. Who’d a thought that’d be fewer than both Michigan and Ohio State prior to the season.
Best of the Rest – n/a. Colston Loveland is the only realistic option here.
Injury Notes – n/a
Indiana:
Top Play(s) – RB Justice Ellison ($5,200) Overall numbers look better on paper than how Michigan is actually playing defensively right now. Michigan State and Oregon both had 100-yard rushers against this Wolverine defense. Sherrone Moore needs to fire Wink Martindale as soon as the regular season has concluded.
Fade – QB Kurtis Rourke ($7,400) A 20-point projection at this price is “fine”, but I’m not sure Rourke will provide much more than that against a decent Michigan secondary that has only allowed two quarterbacks to hit 20 fantasy points in a game all year. Dillon Gabriel was hyper-efficient against the Wolverines last week but was limited to just 24 fantasy points. I’m looking for a bit more upside with my GPP lineups. Cash, Rourke is fine.
Bargain Bin – Tight Ends and Slot Receivers. We’ve covered this topic on several occasions this season that Michigan cannot defend the middle of the field with it’s linebackers struggling in coverage. That means WR Ke’Shawn Williams ($3,400) is a potential option, coming off a season-high six catches on seven targets vs. Michigan State. That means WR Myles Price ($3,800) is an option, who has caught a touchdown in two of the last three games. Even TE Zach Horton ($3,300) who caught a touchdown last week, with 50% of his season-long targets coming in the last three games. Michigan is allowing 12 FPPG to opposing TEs.
Pivot Play – WR Elijah Sarratt ($5,200) I would not be surprised at all if Will Johnson decides to preserve his health in Michigan’s lost season at this point and sits out the remainder of the year as a likely first-round pick. That would mean Michigan could potentially be down both starting corners on the outside where Sarratt, the team’s leading receiver in all categories, resides.
Best of the Rest – RB Ty Son Lawton ($4,400) Ellison is the RB1, but Lawton is more of a 1B than a backup, averaging 10 carries per game with a rushing touchdown in all but two games. The concern for Lawton is that he was banged up in the second half vs. Washington, and then had just six carries last week against the Spartans.
Injury Notes – n/a
Colorado vs. Texas Tech
Point-Spread: Col -3.5
O/U Total: 63.5
Implied Score: Col 33.5 – TT 30
Weather: 61 degrees / 3% rain / 10 mph winds
Colorado:
Top Play(s) – WR Travis Hunter ($9,500) Feels like we haven’t had Colorado on the Main Slate in quite some time, or the weeks are just blending together for me this time of year. I’m all aboard the “Deion Sanders will do everything in his power to get Travis Hunter to New York” train, which looks to be a near certainty at this point but expect the Buffs to continue to force feed their best player. Five opposing receivers have scored at least 23 fantasy points this year against Texas Tech, which is…a LOT.
Fade – RB Dallan Hayden ($4,000) DK has the prices flipped in the Colorado backfield. RB Isaiah Augustave ($3,900) is the RB1 over Hayden at $100 less. Since being named RB1 in Week 8 by Deion, Augustave has 36 rushing attempts combined in two games. That’s nearly half the number of carries as Colorado’s leading rusher had in 12 games last season. Tech is better against the run vs. the pass but rank just 70th in rush D success rate with four different running backs scoring at 25 or more fantasy points against the Red Raiders. Augustave is playable.
Bargain Bin – WR Jimmy Horn Jr. ($3,900) Playing time has certainly diminished for Horn Jr. since the midseason injury, playing less than 50% of the team’s snaps over the last three games. Still somewhat productive in that stretch, averaging four targets per game, including 78 yards vs. Cincinnati in Week 9 which was the most he’s had since the opening game.
Pivot Play – QB Shedeur Sanders ($8,900) Price discount for Sanders who was up near $10k back in early October – late September. As safe as you can get at the QB position in college fantasy, scoring 20 or more fantasy points in all but one game this season. Only downside is Sanders’ passing volume is down as Colorado has become more balanced in recent weeks. But this could be a shootout with a lot of plays being run against a high-tempo team like Tech. The Red Raiders are allowing 25 FPPG against opposing quarterbacks this season.
Best of the Rest – WR LaJohntay Wester ($5,200) While Horn and Will Sheppard’s playing time have fluctuated this season, Wester’s has not, playing around 90% of the team’s offensive snaps over the last three weeks. Averaging 6.75 targets and 5.0 receptions per contest. Where we could stack mutliple Colorado receivers in the past, I don’t think that is the case anymore with Colorado being more balanced on offense.
Injury Notes – n/a
Texas Tech:
Top Play(s) – RB Tahj Brooks ($8,400) What more can be said about Brooks. 25+ touches in all but two games this season. The senior back has also scored 20+ fantasy points in each of the last five weeks. Colorado has improved immensely this season defensively, but the run defense would be the weakness on that side of the ball, ranked 60th in success rate and allowing 28 FPPG to opposing backfields.
Fade – RB Ja’Koby Williams ($3,200) Brooks has 204 rushing attempts this season. The next closest Tech running back has just 26 carries. The only way Williams becomes viable is if Brooks gets injured.
Bargain Bin – WR Coy Eakin ($3,900) Eakin is third on the team in targets (53) and receptions (28) with a team high six receiving touchdowns. The sophomore receiver is also third on the team in routes run now after playing 98% of the team’s offensive snaps in the last two games. He’s not coming off the field.
Pivot Play – QB Behren Morton ($6,000) Last three quarterbacks faced for Colorado have scored 20, 20 and 16 fantasy points as this Buffs secondary has been one of the most improved groups in the Big 12, ranking 26th in success rate and 31st in EPA per pass play. Morton is cheap, though, and Tech is 29th in pass play percentage. Morton can get there on sheer volume.
Best of the Rest – WR Josh Kelly ($6,000) Kelly is likely to hit the 100-target mark on Saturday after his best performance of the year vs. Iowa State with 8-127-2 on 18 targets. Four of the five highest scoring wide receivers to face Colorado have all been in the slot, which does favor Kelly who lines up inside 93% of the time. WR Caleb Douglas ($4,600) is second on the team in targets and receptions, and Tech does not rotate at wideout so you’re either choosing one of Eakin, Kelly or Douglas.
Injury Notes – n/a
