Colorado vs. West Virginia
- Point-Spread: WVU -6.5
- O/U Total: 55.5
- Implied Score: WVU 31 – Col 24.5
- Weather: 58 degrees / 47% rain / 10 mph winds
Colorado:
Top Play(s) – WR Omarion Miller ($4,800) If only he were consistent, Miller has all-conference caliber talent but has rarely strung together consecutive big-time performances over the last two or so years. Maybe a change at quarterback helps accomplish more? Miller has had 20% or more of the team’s target share in six of the last seven games, coming off his best performance of the season with 91 yards and two scores vs. a good Arizona secondary. West Virginia is awful on the back end, allowing 44.6 FPPG to opposing wide receiver groups.
Fade – RBs. Injuries have decimated the position, but the Buffs did get back both Micah Welch and Dallan Hayden from injury last week vs. Arizona. That said, the Buffs haven’t had a player rush for more than 60 yards since Week 6 and split the backfield four ways between the top three rushers and the QB position. Just not appealing whatsoever.
Bargain Bin – WR Sincere Brown ($3,300) Best thing we can say about Sincere Brown is that he’s on the field, playing 90.5% of the team’s offensive snaps in the last five games. Brown doesn’t have more than 100 combined receiving yards in that span, but he’s out there.
Pivot Play – WR Joseph Williams ($4,800) After not playing in Week 9, Williams was back on the field vs. Arizona, catching three passes on five targets while running the most routes of any Colorado receiver in the game. Perhaps we see all Colorado receivers get a stock boost with Kaidon Salter no longer throwing passes for this team.
Best of the Rest – QB Julian Lewis ($6,300) The quarterback on the other side in this game is cheap and has proven more to this point, so we’d absolutely favor Fox over Lewis. And probably won’t even consider Lewis either. But this is also a West Virginia defense that has allowed four of the last five opponents it’s faced to throw for at least 290 passing yards. And Lewis is still a borderline 5-star talent according to recruiting services. The Mountaineers are giving up 25.3 FPPG to quarterbacks this season. We’ll likely play some of the WRs over Lewis, but he’s at least in the conversation.
Injury Notes – n/a
West Virginia:
Top Play(s) – RB Diore Hubbard ($4,800) As we saw last year at Jacksonville State with Tre Stewart, when Rich Rod finds a running back, he’ll lean on him to carry the offense. That’s happened a few times this year already with Jahiem White and then Tye Edwards for a brief moment. Now, it’s Hubbard’s turn after rushing for 108 yards and a touchdown on 29 attempts in the upset victory over Houston last week. Hubbard is only averaging 3.4 YPC this season, so there’s some risk, but one worth taking at this salary against the dead body that is Colorado. We’ll just need to make sure that Hubbard is good to go, after leaving the contest late with what seems to be an injury. He was listed on the game week depth chart, though.
Bargain Bin – WR Jeff Weimer ($3,300) Will need to do some investigating reporting to see if Weimer and Scotty Fox Jr. are roommates of any kind, because his production boost has coincided with Fox becoming West Virginia’s QB1. 124 of Weimer’s 190 receiving yards this season have come in the last two games, including a season-high 94.7% snaps played last week vs. Houston.
Pivot Play – QB Scotty Fox Jr. ($6,200) Rich Rod might be purple in the face, and piss some people off in the process, but he usually gets his offenses clicking at some point once he settles on a quarterback. Is Fox for sure that guy in 2026 and beyond? Who knows, but he is here and now in the present after combining for over 200 total yards and three touchdowns in the upset victory over Houston. This is an excellent matchup against a Colorado defense that has quit on the season, allowing 50+ points in consecutive games.
Best of the Rest – WR Cam Vaughn ($6,200) There will be strong temptation to go cheap and play Jeff Weimer over Cam Vaughn. Strong pivot opportunity away from the field as Vaughn is the team’s WR1, leading the Mountaineers in every receiving category. Colorado ranks 121st in the country in explosive pass plays allowed, which plays right into the hands of Vaughn who averages 15.5 YPC with a team-high 16.2 aDOT. If you fade what is likely to be a highly owned Diore Hubbard, can we offer you RB Cyncir Bowers ($4,200)? The freshman has popped at times this season but rushed for 65 yards and a score on nine attempts vs. Houston. If West Virginia wins this one running away, Bowers could get some garbage-time action.
Injury Notes – n/a
Indiana vs. Penn State
- Point-Spread: IU -14.5
- O/U Total: 49.5
- Implied Score: IU 32 – PSU 17.5
- Weather: 54 degrees / 46% rain / 11 mph winds
Indiana:
Top Play(s) – WR Omar Cooper Jr. ($6,800) This would hinge on Elijah Sarratt’s availability for Saturday, who was deemed as “day-to-day” by HC Curt Cignetti as he was forced to leave the game against Maryland with a hamstring injury. Cooper has been hit or miss this season but would be the undisputed WR1 if Sarratt were to miss the contest and looked the part against the Terps with 7-86-1 on nine targets.
Bargain Bin – RB Khobie Martin ($4,000) The trouble with this play is that it’s entirely contingent on Indiana blowing out Penn State. Possible, yes, because Curt Cignetti takes no prisoners and Indiana has far more momentum and motivation in this matchup than Penn State. But the freshman has looked awesome in his limited work, rushing for 80 yards and a TD vs. Maryland last week, and had a 107-yard, two-touchdown performance against Illinois in Week 4. Those were 40-point blowouts, though.
Pivot Play – WR EJ Williams ($5,300) Was hoping we’d see Williams in the $3-4k range that he’s been in most of the year, but DK clearly accounting for the Elijah Sarratt injury with this price. Williams is likely a no-go if Sarratt is in. But he does play over 75% of the team’s offensive snaps with or without the star WR1 in the lineup. If Sarratt is out, Williams is in play.
Best of the Rest – QB Fernando Mendoza ($9,300) We don’t love a 21.5-point projection at this price for Mendoza with plenty of QB options available to us on the slate. That said, QBs are scoring 31.5% more fantasy points than their seasonal average when facing Penn State this season, as the Nittany Lions are not the dominant defensive unit they’ve been in the past. RB Roman Hemby ($6,400) and RB Kaelon Black ($4,900) are both in play against a Penn State run defense that has allowed over 400 yards on the ground in the last two weeks to Iowa and Ohio State.
Injury Notes – WR Elijah Sarratt (questionable)
Penn State:
RB Kaytron Allen ($6,000) or bust on the Penn State side as the senior back has now found the end-zone in all eight games played this season. His 76 yards and a touchdown last week don’t jump off the page, but 21 attempts against the No. 1 defense in the country does. Stiff challenge again this week against an Indiana defense that is statistically better against the run, allowing 1.75 fewer yards per game on the ground than the Buckeyes. Volume is king, though, and Penn State is feeding their RB1.
Ohio State vs. Purdue
- Point-Spread: OSU -30.5
- O/U Total: 48.5
- Implied Score: OSU 39.5 – Purd 9
- Weather: 52 degrees / 2% rain / 6 mph winds
Ohio State:
Top Play(s) – WR Jeremiah Smith ($8,200) or WR Carnell Tate ($5,700) Same sentiment as last week…almost every lineup you create this week should have one of Smith or Tate in it. Tate continues to be ridiculously underpriced for a player that has surpassed 100 receiving yards in four of the last six games, and has now cemented himself as a NFL Draft 1st round lock.
Fade – RB James Peoples ($4,100) Two games in a row where Isaiah West has had more or equal carries to Peoples. Maybe a garbage-time touchdown is the only way that Peoples factors into a lineup that is in the money.
Bargain Bin – TE Max Klare ($4,500) Klare has not had the fantasy impact that some thought he might coming into the year, but ya think the coaches might want to get the former Purdue transfer into the end zone against his former team? If not DFS, maybe sprinkle some coin on a Klare any time touchdown prop bet.
Pivot Play – RB Bo Jackson ($5,400) Jackson is coming off his third 100-yard performance of the season last week against Penn State and faces a Purdue defense that gave up 250+ yards vs. the Wolverines last Saturday. Purdue is 108th in rush D success rate and giving up just over 30 FPPG to opposing backfields. Still frustrating when Jackson is taken off the field in favor of RB CJ Donaldson ($5,200) who found the end zone because of a 5-3 advantage in red-zone rush attempts.
Best of the Rest – QB Julian Sayin ($8,700) Underpriced compared to his production of last, scoring 30+ fantasy points in each of the last two games with a combined eight touchdown passes. The Boilermakers are only giving up 16 FPPG to opposing QBs this season, but that seems to be a product of the QBs faced on the schedule. Purdue is 109th in pass D success rate and 120th in explosive pass plays allowed. 25 pass plays given up this season of 25 yards or more. Not a recipe for success when facing Sayin, Tate and Smith.
Injury Notes – n/a
Purdue:
QB Ryan Browne is not 100% healthy, which has put a damper on the Purdue passing game in the last few weeks. WR Nitro Tuggle ($3,400) and WR Michael Jackson ($4,000) continue to dominate the target share among Purdue wideouts, but we have a general rule this season about fading every team that plays against Ohio State. The Buckeyes are No. 1 in total defense, No. 1 in scoring defense, No. 7 in yards allowed on the ground and No. 3 in pass defense. We knew the Buckeyes had talent, just believed that Matt Patricia would screw it up. He hasn’t…yet.
Maryland vs. Rutgers
- Point-Spread: MD -1
- O/U Total: 58
- Implied Score: MD 29.5 – Rutg 28.5
- Weather: 61 degrees / 20% rain / 9 mph winds
Maryland:
Top Play(s) – QB Malik Washington ($7,700) Hear me out. Yes, Washington has hit the freshman wall, and yes, Maryland has hit their usual second half losing streak under this inept coaching staff. But the matchup dictates Washington is a play, facing a Rutgers defense that is 17th among 18 teams in the B1G in yards allowed through the air and giving up a whopping 32 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. If not Washington, that’s fine, but we should be looking at exposure with the Maryland passing game.
Fade – RB Nolan Ray ($4,200) Maryland is the worst rushing attack in the B1G, averaging just 93 yards per contest. We’re not expecting that to change, even against a defense like Rutgers. The only reason RB DeJuan Williams ($5,000) is in play here is his usage in the passing game with 11 receptions on 16 targets over the last two weeks.
Best of the Rest – Pass Catchers. Fairly even distribution amongst Maryland’s top three receivers, along with TE Dorian Fleming ($5,400) as the top wideout – WR Jalil Farooq ($5,000) – leads the team with just 17% of the target share. Between receivers and tight ends, this Rutgers defense is allowing around 50 fantasy points per game to opposing teams’ pass-catchers, so getting some exposure to someone makes sense. While he was held off the stat sheet last week, WR Shaleak Knotts ($4,700) is still my favorite of the bunch with a team-best 16.2 YPC average and team-high five touchdowns.
Injury Notes – n/a
Rutgers:
Top Play(s) – RB Antwan Raymond ($6,600) Don’t see this game getting out of hand and out of script for Raymond the way that it did last Saturday vs. Illinois, with this being just a 1-point spread and Maryland amidst a 4-game losing streak. Overall run defense numbers for the Terps look good, but they’ve fallen on hard times, specifically in the last three weeks, allowing Nebraska, UCLA and Indiana to average six yards per carry.
Bargain Bin – WR DT Sheffield ($4,700) Sheffield would be the cheapest we’d go on any Rutgers’ option. We outline below why we prefer the other Rutgers WR options but can’t deny a player like Sheffield that is averaging 4.0 receptions on 7.1 targets per game. Sheffield’s 64 targets are the fewest amongst Rutgers’ starting receivers, but the next closest wideout on the team has just 13 targets this season, which shows how little the Knights rotate at the position.
Pivot Play – QB Athan Kaliakmanis ($6,700) When stepping up in class to face the better defenses in the B1G (Illinois / Oregon), Kalikmanis has been overwhelmed, scoring a combined 15 fantasy points in those two matchups. Maryland is not that. Not an elite play with just a 19-point projection, but absolutely playable at this cost against a secondary that is prone to give up big plays in the passing game.
Best of the Rest – WR KJ Duff ($6,100) and / or WR Ian Strong ($6,500) Similar to our Ohio State thoughts, we’d like to attempt to have one of Duff or Strong in every one of our lineups, but stacking both is an option too (with Maryland pieces as well). Boundary receivers have dominated this Maryland secondary this season. Denzel Boston had 71 yards and a score. Nebraska’s Nyziah Hunter had 125 yards and two TDs. Even a UCLA outside receiver posted 100+ yards against the Terps.
Injury Notes – n/a
Texas A&M vs. Missouri
- Point-Spread: A&M -6.5
- O/U Total: 47.5
- Implied Score: A&M 27 – Mizzou 20.5
- Weather: 62 degrees / 9% rain / 10 mph winds
Texas A&M:
Top Play(s) – QB Marcel Reed ($8,200) Projections like Reed this week, but the matchup is a difficult one, facing a Missouri defense that is 3rd in the SEC in scoring, 1st in pass yards allowed per game (155.4 YPG) and 11th in pass D success rate. The Tigers are only allowing 13 FPPG to quarterbacks this season, but some of that has been a byproduct of the schedule. Some of the better QBs faced this season have had success, with Ty Simpson and Jalon Daniels both accounting for three touchdowns in their matchups with Missouri. LaNorris Sellers also threw for 300+ yards in his road matchup with the Tigers.
Fade – Veteran RBs. We know Rueben Owens II is the starter. But against LSU it was freshman Jamarion Morrow who was the second man on the field in the first half. Both RB Amari Daniels ($4,000) and RB EJ Smith ($4,000) didn’t see a rushing attempt until the second half when the game was already in hand. Makes sense trying to get more run for Morrow too, as the freshman is averaging close to six yards a carry in 2025.
Bargain Bin – WR Ashton Bethel-Roman ($3,300) In the last three weeks, A&M has played a lot more 12 personnel meaning just two WRs on the field. And surprisingly, we’ve seen a bit more of ABR who has popped in the last two games with 120 of his 216 receiving yards this season coming in that stretch. Bethel-Roman was on the field more than KC Concepcion and Mario Craver vs. LSU.
Pivot Play – WR KC Concepcion ($6,300) or WR Mario Craver ($4,900) Understandable the prices are what they are, because neither player has performed up to standard that this duo set at the start of the year. Maybe we take advantage of the salary savings? Craver and Concepcion still account for 11 of the team’s 18 receiving touchdowns and 53% of the target share. The matchup isn’t great, as Missouri is giving up just 24 fantasy points per game combined to WR groups this year, but affordable (and talented) enough to consider.
Best of the Rest – RB Rueben Owens II ($5,600) For as good as Missouri is against the pass, the Tigers might be better against the run, allowing just 14.7 FPPG to opposing backfields and 7th nationally in rush D success rate. With the randomness at which A&M will rotate its backs, combined with the matchup, combined with Reed getting involved in the run game, there’s not much upside to playing Owens here.
Injury Notes – n/a
Missouri:
Top Play(s) – RB Ahmad Hardy ($7,700) You’d have to imagine Missouri leans on its start running back with having a freshman QB making his first career start on Saturday. I don’t want to say that this is an Ahmad Hardy week for certain, as this is an A&M defense that is generally good against the run, holding four of its last five opponents under 80 rushing yards as a team. That said, the Aggies are 135th in explosive run plays allowed with 13 run plays of 20 yards or more given up and 35 runs of 10 yards or more. That’s something that a player like Hardy, who breaks a ton of tackles, can exploit.
Fade – QB Matt Zollers ($7,000) This will be a very high-scoring slate, so we’re not playing games with a true freshman making his first career start against a Top 5 opponent. Zollers has a bright future with borderline elite arm talent, and does possess mobility, rushing for nearly 1,000 yards in his high school career. This is just not the time or place to have a true freshman QB in your DFS lineups.
Bargain Bin – TE Jude James ($3,000) James would get the start at tight end if Brett Norfleet were unavailable on Saturday, as he popped up on the Wednesday injury report. James caught four passes on four targets with a touchdown in Week 8 vs. Vanderbilt, with all four catches coming from Zollers.
Best of the Rest – WRs. A&M is 24th in pass D success rate, 45th in suppressing explosive pass plays and giving up just 32 combined fantasy points per game to WRs, so this isn’t really a matchup to have any Mizzou wideouts. No real trends as to whether slot or boundary receivers find the most success against the Aggies either. Minimal interest.
Injury Notes – TE Brett Norfleet (questionable), QB Beau Pribula (out)
Kansas vs. Arizona
- Point-Spread: Ariz -4.5
- O/U Total: 56.5
- Implied Score: Ariz 30.5 – KU 26
- Weather: 82 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
Kansas:
Top Play(s) – RB Daniel Hishaw Jr. ($5,500) We want pieces to this matchup with a tight spread and both teams projected near four touchdowns…but where do we look because neither team has significant fantasy contributors this season. When both RBs are healthy, which they are, this is a split backfield between Hishaw and RB Leshon Williams ($4,700), as perfectly demonstrated by each player getting 14 carries in the win over Oklahoma State last week. Arizona has not been good against the run of late, allowing both Houston and BYU to rack up over 230 rush yards against the Wildcats. Colorado rushed for just 129 yards vs. Arizona last week, but that’s a relatively good rushing week for the Buffs for their standards. We need to give some of these mid- to low-range RB options looks this week because of all the elite WR options to chase.
Fade – QB Jalon Daniels ($8,100) I can’t jump on board here after Daniels has failed to score more than 20 points in a game since late September. Arizona has the No. 1 pass defense in the Big 12 and are giving up just 15 FPPG to quarterbacks this season. The Wildcats are 6th nationally in pass D success rate.
Pivot Play – WR Emmanuel Henderson Jr. ($5,900) For as good as the Arizona secondary has been, they’re prone to give up a big play or two. 13 plays allowed of 25 or more yards this season and are 111th in explosive pass plays given up. We’ve seen at least one opposing WR score 20+ fantasy points against Arizona in three of the last four games, including two touchdowns from Colorado’s Omarion Miller last week.
Best of the Rest – WR Cam Pickett ($4,400) Slot receivers have thrived recently against Arizona with BYU’s Parker Kingston going for 117 yards and a score. The game before that, Houston’s Amare Thomas hauled in a pair of touchdowns. Pickett plays 82.8% of the time in the slot for the Jayhawks and is second on the team in targets (45) and receptions (33).
Injury Notes – n/a
Arizona:
Top Play(s) – QB Noah Fifita ($7,300) This looks like late freshman season version of Noah Fifita lately with 13 passing touchdowns over his last four games. Schedule has helped, playing Oklahoma State and Colorado will boost anyone’s numbers. But sandwiched in there was a game against Houston where Fifita completed over 92% of his passes. Kansas is average across the board against the pass, ranked 68th in success rate, 109th in explosive pass plays allowed and give up just over 20 FPPG to quarterbacks.
Fade – WR Chris Hunter ($4,100) Hunter is out of the equation here with his snaps steadily declining over the last two weeks. He was seventh among WRs in playing time vs. Colorado and appears to be fully behind both Tre Spivey and WR Javin Whatley ($4,200) as outside options. Whatley, on the other hand, now leads the team in every receiving category.
Bargain Bin – WR Tre Spivey ($3,200) There’s still a rotation at receiver for Zona that is tough to dissect, but Spivey and Kris Hutson have been the two staples over two games, playing well over 70% of the team’s offensive snaps. It’s about time they got Spivey more playing time too, after finding the end zone five times over the last five games. Big play threat at 25.5 YPC. I know he didn’t pan out last week but TE Cameron Barmore ($3,000) did play 95% of the team’s offensive snaps and has fully taken over TE1 over Sam Olson. Kansas is allowing 10.4 FPPG to tight ends this season.
Pivot Play – RBs. Similar situations for both teams with it being a committee between the top two running backs. Difference here between Kedrick Reescano and Ismail Mahdi is that there’s a third option in Quincy Craig that has also got some run with 14 attempts over the last three weeks. Kansas is 14th in the conference in yards allowed per game on the ground, but it would take an injury here for someone in this backfield to get more than 15 touches on Saturday. Very limited upside.
Best of the Rest – WR Kris Hutson ($5,800) 27 of Hutson’s 29 receptions this season have come in the last five games and has found the end-zone three times. Kansas has had real trouble covering slot receivers the last two games, allowing 7-78-1 to Oklahoma State’s Gavin Freeman and 160 yards to Kansas State’s Jayce Brown.
Injury Notes – n/a
Iowa State vs. TCU
- Point-Spread: TCU -6.5
- O/U Total: 57.5
- Implied Score: TCU 32 – ISU 25.5
- Weather: 80 degrees / 0% rain / 8 mph winds
Iowa State:
Top Play(s) – WR Chase Sowell ($3,800) or WR Brett Eskildsen ($3,900) Feels like it’s been one week of Sowell, then the next Eskildsen as the team’s leading receiver. Last week was a Sowell week, targeted 11 times, resulting in six catches for 85 yards. Maybe that flips back to Eskildsen this week, tough to say for sure. But what we do know is TCU gives up 41.5 fantasy points per game to opposing WRs. And they’re both cheap.
Bargain Bin – TE Benjamin Brahmer ($4,300) Iowa State tight ends have been mostly irrelevant for college fantasy as they eat into each other’s production. But we’re starting to see a small bit of separation with Brahmer becoming the lead option with 16 receptions over the last four games. TCU doesn’t defend the TE position well either, allowing around 12 FPPG.
Pivot Play – QB Rocco Becht ($7,800) I’d love to say fade Becht as he’s scored just 40 combined fantasy points over the last three games but can’t discount any QB facing the second worst pass defense in the B12. TCU has allowed its last two opponents to throw for 300+ against them, while also giving up at least two passing touchdowns in every game but the opener vs. North Carolina. Becht also led Iowa State in red zone carries last week vs. Arizona State.
Best of the Rest – RB Carson Hansen ($6,500) Apparently the week off from the concussion served Hansen well, because he’s rushed for 275 combined yards in two games since the injury. TCU is far better against the run than defending the pass, ranked second in the B12 in yards allowed on the ground, including holding West Virginia to just 41 yards on the ground – a team we’re very much interested in their running game this week.
Injury Notes – TE Benjamin Brahmer (questionable)
TCU:
Top Play(s) – A TCU WR. We’ll clarify below why we’re not all in on the TCU passing game this week, but having one Horned Frog wideout in a lineup is suggested on Saturday. BYU’s Parker Kingston – 133 yards and two TDs. Colorado’s Joseph Williams – 8-128-1. Cincinnati’s Caleb Goodie – 83 yards and a TD. K-State WR Jayce Brown – 78 yards and a TD. The injuries to the Iowa State secondary have taken a toll on the group giving up 39 FPPG to opposing WRs. TCU will be getting back to its normal rotation on Saturday, rolling out WR Eric McAlister ($7,000) and WR Jordan Dwyer ($5,400), but also get back WR Joseph Manjack IV ($5,200) who is said to be full-go by Sonny Dykes.
Fade – QB Josh Hoover ($8,800) Hopefully this one doesn’t blow up in our face, but there’s some stuff going around regarding Hoover and an injured thumb on his throwing hand that has us tentative. HC Sonny Dykes said he’s “good” and didn’t have surgery over the bye week, but how much might this impact his throwing ability on Saturday? A 21-point projection isn’t that enticing either. Iowa State is giving up a boatload of fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, as we saw just last week with Jeff Sims, but it’s been mostly dual threats that have hurt the Cyclones.
Best of the Rest – RB Kevorian Barnes ($6,200) Will just need to do our double checks prior to kickoff to make sure Barnes is good to go for Saturday. No injury tag and not mentioned by Dykes to have any sort of injury, but also left the game in the second half against West Virginia in Week 9, giving way to RB Trent Battle ($4,200) who rushed for nearly 100 yards on the day. Not sure if it was injury or performance related. Iowa State is 11th in the conference in yards allowed on the ground, but only giving up 14.5 FPPG to running backs this season. Quarterback runs have been the most damaging to this Cyclone defense (Jeff Sims).
Injury Notes – n/a
Duke vs. Connecticut
- Point-Spread: Duke -8.5
- O/U Total: 65.5
- Implied Score: Duke 37 – UConn 28.5
- Weather: 58 degrees / 34% rain / 11 mph winds
Duke:
Top Play(s) – WR Cooper Barkate ($7,300) Barkate has emerged as Duke’s clear-cut WR1 over the last month and a half with five touchdowns in the last five games, with a combined 299 receiving yards over the last two weeks. He’ll go undervalued with DFS players looking at the cheap Duke WRs, making him an excellent GPP option.
Bargain Bin – WR Que’Sean Brown ($4,500) Cooper Barkate has been the best Duke receiver this season, but we need a spend-down option to pair with some of the other WRs on the slate that we want in our lineups (Ohio State WRs / Eric McAlister). Brown is routinely underpriced for a player that is second on the team in targets (52), receptions (37) and routes run. WR Sahmir Hagans ($3,600) is a major risk as he splits time with WR Andrel Anthony ($3,600) on the outside and will kick in the slot when Duke goes to 4-wide sets. But wanted to highlight him because he fits the profile of WRs that have given UConn trouble this year – Sub-6-foot boundary receivers. Delaware’s Kyre Duplessis caught nine passes for 161 yards and a score. UAB’s Brandon Hawkins had 84 yards and a TD last week. Both players are 5-foot-10 and play on the outside. Just wouldn’t be surprised if its someone outside of Barkate and Brown that have a big game Saturday.
Pivot Play – RB Nate Sheppard ($8,200) It’s annoying that Sheppard is the highest-priced RB on the slate, because he hasn’t performed at that level of late, and thought he’d be severely overlooked in a matchup where everyone will be focused on the passing attacks. 8.2k probably eliminates Sheppard from lineup contention, but this is a matchup for him against a UConn defense that is 106th nationally in yards allowed on the ground and 119th in rush D success rate. If Sheppard was $6.2k, like he’s been most of this season, he’d be one of the better plays on the slate that would be under-owned.
Best of the Rest – QB Darian Mensah ($9,500) We have more interest in the QB on the other side of this game, with Duke being favored by over a touchdown and UConn only allowing 17.5 FPPG to quarterbacks this season. That said, this is an incredible matchup between arguably the two most efficient QBs in the country. Between Mensah and Joe Fagnano, the QBs have a touchdown to interception ratio of 43 : 2. Insane. In UConn’s two P4 matchups this season, the Huskies have given up over 600 combined passing yards and four touchdowns.
Injury Notes – n/a
Connecticut:
Top Play(s) – WR Skyler Bell ($6,900) As it stands today, Skyler Bell is the No. 1 receiver in all of college fantasy football with 239 fantasy points scored, averaging 26.6 FPPG with six 100-yard receiving performances. And that shows no signs of slowing down this week facing a Duke defense that is allowing a combined 45 FPPG to opposing WR rooms. Bell accounts for 33% of the team’s total target share (elite) and one of two receivers in the country – Danny Scudero being the other – to have over 1,000 yard receiving this season.
Fade – RB Victor Rosa ($4,100) Longtime CFB DFS players will remember Rosa from four years ago when he rushed for 11 touchdowns as a freshman. They’ll also remember UConn being a full-fledged running back by committee over the last few seasons. Well, the Huskies no longer employ a RBBC and Rosa isn’t the same guy from four years ago with just 39 attempts in the last two seasons.
Bargain Bin – WR Reymello Murphy ($3,700) or WR John Neider ($3,100) Someone else besides Bell is likely going to have to step up if the Huskies are to pull an upset on Saturday. Murphy is second on the team in all receiving categories but has just 22 receptions and three touchdowns on 28 targets. Murphy plays in the same slot position that Antonio Wiliams does, and we saw what he did to this Duke secondary last week. Neider is the third option at WR, and is the deep threat of the bunch, averaging 16.5 YPC with a 13.6 aDOT.
Pivot Play – RB Cam Edwards ($5,900) Similar to Nate Sheppard, all the focus will be on the UConn passing game, which should leave Edwards undervalued and under-owned here. Duke does not give up the amount of fantasy points to running backs that UConn does, but the Blue Devils ranked just 71st in rush D success rate and 117th in explosive run plays allowed. It’s not an impenetrable run defense by any means, and Edwards has scored a touchdown in all but two games this season. Edwards’ 52% volume share is the highest mark of any UConn running back since Jim Mora Jr. was hired.
Best of the Rest – QB Joe Fagnano ($9,200) Fagnano is QB13 in college fantasy football in fantasy points scored, averaging over 28 FPPG and has been on a heater the last month with 130 fantasy points combined over the last four games. Game script works in his favor, and Duke does give up over 24 FPPG to quarterbacks this season. Both QBs are best played in game stacks with the hopes this game lives up to the hype of a shootout. TE Juice Vereen ($4,400) has four touchdowns this season, all of which coming in the last three games.
Injury Notes – n/a
Oregon vs. Iowa
- Point-Spread: Oreg -5.5
- O/U Total: 41.5
- Implied Score: Oreg 23.5 – Iowa 18
- Weather: 50 degrees / 25% rain / 10 mph winds
Iowa:
Fun matchup in football terms, but from a fantasy aspect, you’ll want minimal to zero amounts of exposure on either side. As always with the Hawkeyes, the question is where or not RB Kamari Moulton ($6,100) will be worth his salary because we’re not interested in the other skill positions. Can Iowa run on Oregon? Possible, but the only team to average more than four yards per carry against the Ducks all season was Northwestern. And that was due to a busted 70-yard run by the Wildcats in the 4th quarter with the game already in hand. In total, the Ducks are giving up just 20 combined points to opposing backfields this season.
Oregon:
Top Play(s) – RB Noah Whittington ($4,600) or RB Jordon Davison ($4,300) Isn’t it crazy how little fantasy interest we have in a team like Oregon that is top five nationally in scoring, averaging over 40 PPG? That’s the NIL era in a nutshell where teams like Oregon can pay for high-level starters and capable depth on both sides of the ball. Whittington and Davison combined for 199 rush yards and two scores in the win over Wisconsin two weeks ago. In that matchup, Oregon had five red zone carries…all of which went to Davison fwiw.
Fade – QB Dante Moore ($8,000) Does anyone see this game shooting out? The Hawkeyes have allowed just four passing touchdowns all season, giving up just 9.1 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. Context is important – the only top 75 fantasy QB faced all year is Fernando Mendoza, but even he was limited to just 233 yards and two scores in his matchup with Iowa.
Best of the Rest – Pass Catchers. Just like the running backs Oregon is a committee amongst the receivers and tight ends as well, with WR Dakorien Moore ($5,100) leading the team with just 21% of the target share. WR Gary Bryant Jr. ($3,300) is cheap and is third on the team in routes run behind Moore and TE Kenyon Sadiq ($4,400). There’s a gap in routes run between Moore / Bryant and the next closest Oregon receiver, so those would be the two preferred choices. I do wonder if WR Jeremiah McClellan ($3,200) or WR Malik Benson ($3,700) play a bigger role. Rutgers’ Ian Strong and Indiana’s Elijah Sarratt – two big-bodied outside receivers – combined for over 300 receiving yards against this Iowa secondary. McClellan and Benson fit that profile more than Moore or Bryant.
Injury Notes – n/a
Auburn vs. Vanderbilt
- Point-Spread: Vand -7
- O/U Total: 46
- Implied Score: Vand 26.5 – Aub 19.5
- Weather: 66 degrees / 6% rain / 8 mph winds
Auburn:
Auburn will be one of two teams, Purdue the other, that we don’t have any exposure to on Saturday. Telling sign if you find more written content about the Auburn coaching search rather than the actual game now that Hugh Freeze has been fired. Zero interest in the quarterback situation – Ashton Daniels is who he is at this point in his career. We have a plethora of WR options on the slate that DO NOT have Ashton Daniels throwing them the ball, so we’re out on Cam Coleman and Eric Singleton Jr.
RB Jeremiah Cobb ($7,300) is the only player of mild interest here, with 20+ rushing attempts in each of the last two games and over 320 rushing yards in the last three weeks. Can Auburn run on Vanderbilt? The Dores have not allowed more than one rushing touchdown to to a team all season, are 56th in rush D success rate and 13th at limited explosive run plays. Not that appealing of a matchup, but a possible GPP as he won’t see much ownership.
Vanderbilt:
Top Play(s) – QB Diego Pavia ($9,400) Vandy at home, in a must-win situation following the loss to Texas to remain in CFP contention. Sounds like Diego Pavia music. Vanderbilt will not be able to run on this Auburn front with its running backs, so Pavia and the passing game will be the orchestrators of the offense on Saturday. That said, at this price, it’s far from a smash play with just a 21.2-point projection as the Auburn defense is only allowing 14.0 FPPG to quarterbacks this season. This has a better shot at being low scoring, rather than a back-and-forth shootout.
Fade – RB Sedrick Alexander ($4,400) At this point in my CFB DFS career, there are certain players that I’ll fade every week, and if he beats me, he beats me. Sedrick Alexander is one of those players. Auburn is one of the best run defenses in the country, ranked 1st in EPA per run play defensively, 6th in rush play success rate and 24th at limiting explosive run plays.
Best of the Rest – TE Eli Stowers ($5,000) Stowers looked like the TE2 we had projected him to be last Saturday with 7-146-2 on 10 targets in the loss to Texas. The game script played a major part in that with Vanderbilt trailing by double-digits in the second half. We’re unlikely to have much exposure to Stowers or the other Vandy pass-catchers with the game script likely being flipped this week with the Commodores as a touchdown favorite. In those scenarios this season with Vandy favored, Stowers and the wide receivers have not been major fantasy contributors.
Injury Notes – n/a
Georgia vs. Mississippi State
- Point-Spread: UGA -7.5
- O/U Total: 56.8
- Implied Score: UGA 32 – MSU 24.5
- Weather: 69 degrees / 9% rain / 6 mph winds
Georgia:
Top Play(s) – WR Zachariah Branch ($5,100) Branch is the closest example we’ve had in years as a fantasy relevant Georgia receiver. The former USC transfer now has double the amount of receptions as the next closest UGA wideout (who is not out for the season too), with 27 of his 45 catches coming in the last three games alone.
Fade – RB Josh McCray ($4,300) Zero carries and two offensive snaps vs. Florida. Enjoy the NIL bag, though.
Bargain Bin – WR Dillon Bell ($3,300) Bell stepped up most in place of the injured Colbie Young with four receptions on five targets and a touchdown vs. Florida. WR Noah Thomas ($3,100), the former A&M transfer, also found the end zone, and played 70% of the team’s offensive snaps last week. His 6-foot-5, 205-pound frame is the perfect replacement for Young in the starting lineup.
Pivot Play – QB Gunner Stockton ($8,300) High floor, limited upside play here for Stockton as Mississippi State is only allowing around 19 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks this season. MSU has done a relatively good job of keeping dual threat QBs in check this season, allowing 22 points to Taylen Green, 24 points to Marcel Reed and just 10 fantasy points to Sam Leavitt.
Best of the Rest – RBs. If you have one spot left at RB or the Flex and the exact amount of salary leftover for either RB Chauncey Bowens ($5,300) or RB Nate Frazier ($5,700), I can rationalize it to an extent. Mississippi State is also 16th among 17 teams in the SEC in yards allowed per game on the ground. But this is a 50-50 split backfield with no way of predicting who will be the “lead” back on that given day. Even a Georgia fan who follows the team religiously will agree to that. The argument in favor of Bowens or Frazier is that the run defense for Mississippi State has crumbled when facing a dual threat on the opposite side, which UGA has in Stockton. 239 yards on the ground to Arkansas last week. 299 yards on the ground to Texas A&M. And then 251 yards against Arizona State in Week 2.
Injury Notes – WR Colbie Young (out)
Mississippi State:
Top Play(s) – WR Brenen Thompson ($5,700) and / or WR Anthony Evans III ($5,600) These are probably the only two potential plays on the Mississippi State side as Thompson and Evans are dominating the team target share at 51% with 10 of the 18 receiving touchdowns. Both are coming off 100-yard performances last week against Arkansas, and now face a Georgia secondary that is prone to some coverage busts on the backend, allowing almost 40 FPPG to opposing WRs.
Fade – RBs. Georgia has not allowed an opponent this season to average more than four yards per carry as a team. And the Dawgs are only giving up around 14 FPPG to opposing backfields. With Fluff Bothwell back healthy, this is a split backfield between he and Davon Booth, which nullifies them in college fantasy when facing an elite run D.
Bargain Bin – TE Seydou Traore ($3,400) or WR Ayden Williams ($3,200) Traore is third on the team in targets (33), receptions (22), routes run and tied for second in touchdowns (4). Williams has fully surpassed Jordan Mosley as the second outside receiver for the Bulldogs, playing over 65% of the team’s offensive snaps over the last month. Both are low-end lineup fillers as the passing game revolves around Thompson and Evans.
Best of the Rest – QB Blake Shapen ($6,600) There hasn’t been much mention of it this week on the Mississippi State On3 or 247 sites, but might we have a QB competition brewing between Shapen and prized freshman Kamario Taylor? Taylor replaced Shapen in the third quarter vs. Arkansas last week and led a pair of scoring drives, throwing and rushing for a touchdown that saved the say for the Bulldogs. Shapen’s projection doesn’t warrant consideration, and there’s a better chance than not that we see Taylor again in some capacity.
Injury Notes – n/a
BYU vs. Texas Tech
- Point-Spread: Tech -10.5
- O/U Total: 52.5
- Implied Score: TT 31.5 – BYU 21
- Weather: Dome
BYU:
Top Play(s) – WR Chase Roberts ($4,500) or WR Parker Kingston ($5,300) WRs haven’t had a great deal of success against Tech either, combining to average just 26 FPPG vs. the Red Raiders, but both players are modestly priced – specifically Roberts. The BYU duo combines for 64% of the team’s receiving production with 8 of the 11 receiving touchdowns. Not a game situation to stack the two together, but shots on either player make sense. FWIW – we debated BYU’s tight end (below) as the team’s top play too.
Fade – RB LJ Martin ($8,000) Just not the week to play a potentially less than 100 percent LJ Martin against this Tech front. Just one team this season has averaged more than four yards per carry against Texas Tech this season, which came last week against Kansas State where it was QB Avery Johnson that did most of the damage. The Red Raiders are allowing just 12.4 FPPG to running backs this season.
Bargain Bin – TE Carsen Ryan ($3,600) For as good as Texas Tech is defensively, the Red Raiders don’t care about defending tight ends. That, or their focus is on limiting big plays to receivers and stopping the run. Regardless, Texas Tech is allowing 13.5 FPPG to tight ends this season. Kansas State’s Garrett Oakley had 62 yards and a TD vs. the Red Raiders last week. Kansas’ Boden Groen had 12 catches in his matchup with Texas Tech. I would not be shocked to see Carsen Ryan have a big day.
Best of the Rest – QB Bear Bachmeier ($8,500) Bachmeier is in that middle range that isn’t very appealing pricewise, especially given the matchup with Texas Tech allowing just 15.3 FPPG to quarterbacks this season. Spending down for a Noah Fifita or up a few hundred dollars for Julian Sayin is the preferred strategy here. Perhaps Bachmeier can exploit the Tech defense in the run game the same way Avery Johnson did a week ago, rushing for 88 yards on 15 attempts. Still, Johnson was the only QB this season to score more than 20 fantasy points against the Red Raiders.
Injury Notes – n/a
Texas Tech:
Top Play(s) – RB J’Koby Williams ($5,000) Just to preface this…we all understand how this works right? The DFS community will jump on Williams this week as a good play and it’ll be RB Cameron Dickey ($7,600) who goes off for 100+ yards and two scores. Those are the rules. We’ll take the chance with recency bias and favor Williams of the two after he rushed for 135 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries in the win over Kansas State last week. The BYU run defense ranks highly overall when looking at the full season, but have been gashed over the last three weeks, allowing well over five yards a carry to Arizona, Utah and Iowa State.
Fade – QB Behren Morton ($6,800) Projection and matchup aren’t a fit on this slate. BYU is allowing just 15.6 FPPG to quarterbacks this season, and we haven’t seen Morton score more than 21 fantasy points in a game since mid-September. BYU is 41st in pass D success rate and 27th nationally at limiting explosives in the passing game.
Best of the Rest – WR Caleb Douglas ($6,400) This was an equal opportunist passing game for Tech but starting to see a bit of separation here the last two weeks with Douglas accounting for 22 targets and three touchdowns in the previous two games. 47 of Douglas’ 67 targets this season have come in the last five games. He’s the preferred choice of the Tech receiving options.
Injury Notes – n/a
Mike’s DK Core Four:
- WR Skyler Bell, Connecticut
- RB Diore Hubbard, West Virginia
- An Ohio State WR
- WR Omar Cooper Jr., Indiana (if Elijah Sarratt is out)
Mike’s FD Core Four:
- QB Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt
- QB Julian Sayin, Ohio State
- RB CharMar Brown, Miami (if Mark Fletcher is out)
- WR Chase Sowell, Iowa State
