LSU vs. Arkansas
Point-Spread: LSU -3
O/U Total: 62.5
Implied Score: LSU 33 – Ark 29.5
Weather: 38 degrees / 0% rain / 10 mph winds
LSU:
Top Play(s) – QB Jayden Daniels ($8,500) Have to figure that the Arkansas offense will be motivated to bounce back after last week’s dismal performance vs. Liberty, and nobody has been able to stop Daniels of late, averaging 45 FPPG over the last three games. Good chance this game could shoot out, though the O/U total has dropped a point since the week started. Arkansas’ pass defense is ripe for the picking, ranked 108th in pass efficiency defensively and 129th in yards allowed through the air.
Fade – RB John Emery ($5,000) Don’t see Josh Williams ($4,100) giving up his starting job at any point right now. Emery did make his return from injury against Alabama on Saturday, playing 22 snaps and seeing more playing time than both Noah Cain and Armoni Goodwin, so it appears he’s RB2 on the depth chart. But Williams continues to perform well in a starting role, now having scored double-digit fantasy points in each of the last four games.
Bargain Bin – See above on Josh Williams. Arkansas is 106th in rush play success rate defensively and 20.1 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season. Williams should get to double-digit fantasy points for the fifth straight week as long as his playing time remains consistent.
Pivot Play – WR Jaray Jenkins ($4,500) Hit or miss with the LSU receivers this year, and in reality, it is totally acceptable and probably preferable to just play Jayden Daniels naked in your lineups. Targets are down for the starting WR, only seeing seven in the last three games, but still managed to find the end-zone twice in that span to keep his team lead with five touchdowns. Jenkins’ field stretching ability (13.0 aDOT) is why he’s intriguing in this particular matchup against an Arkansas secondary that ranks 122nd in pass play explosiveness.
Best of the Rest – TE Mason Taylor ($3,500) Taylor leads all LSU pass-catchers in routes run this season and has now found the end-zone twice in as many weeks, including the game-winning two-point conversion against Alabama. WRs Malik Nabers ($5,800) and Kayshon Boutte ($5,300) continue to pace the Tigers in targets and receptions this season. Combined for 13 catches on 15 targets last week, but to reiterate, there isn’t a necessity to pair anyone with Daniels.
Injury Notes – n/a
Arkansas:
Top Play(s) – WR Matt Landers ($5,000) If KJ Jefferson does not play (see below), I’m more than fine with fading this entire situation for the Razorbacks, particularly the WRs. But if he does play, the Toledo transfer has been his favorite target of late with over 300 receiving yards in the last three games. LSU gives up a ton of big plays in the secondary, ranked 118th in explosiveness allowed, and Landers is one of the top deep threats in the country.
Fade – WR Jadon Haselwood ($5,800) Fine complementary WR that has scored 16 fantasy points in three of the last four games but would rather go with the salary saver in Landers. Team leader in targets (57) but a 7.4 aDOT means everything is close to the LOS so he would need a high volume of targets likely to reach value. And the chances of that decrease significantly if Jefferson were out.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – RB Raheim Sanders ($7,100) Remember when Raheim Sanders was performing like a Top 3 running back in college football? Distant memory at this point, but not solely his fault. 14 tackles for loss and four sacks allowed last week against Liberty. Arkansas is now 91st in stuff rate and 35th in line yards. The offensive line performance has been lacking. Could be a get-right opportunity against a mediocre LSU rush defense, ranking 82nd in success rate and allowing 17 FPPG to opposing RB1s.
Best of the Rest – TE Trey Knox ($3,800) Knox did score two touchdowns last week vs. Liberty but want to caution those who are interested this week. LSU is allowing just 3.5 FPPG to opposing tight ends which is the eighth best mark in the country. Not a single TE this season has score more than nine fantasy points vs. the Tigers.
Injury Notes – QB KJ Jefferson ($6,500) Jefferson would absolutely be in play here at his pricing, but there seems to be growing concern about his health entering Saturday. Was a game-time decision last week and played the entire game but is dealing with a bruised clavicle that actually required a steroid injection. HC Sam Pittman stated Jefferson felt good practicing on Monday but was limited the next day. Backup Malik Hornsby ($5,900), the potential 2023 starting QB for Arkansas, would start in Jefferson’s place were he not available.
Missouri vs. Tennessee
Point-Spread: Tenn -20.5
O/U Total: 56.5
Implied Score: Tenn 38.5 – Mizzou 18
Weather: 47 degrees / 19% rain / 5 mph winds
Missouri:
Just two plays here with WRs Dominic Lovett ($5,000) and Luther Burden III ($5,200). Disappointing week last Saturday for those that played Lovett in their lineups (I did), coming off a 10-148-0 performance against South Carolina the game prior. Remains the team leader in targets (59), receptions (46) and yards per route run (2.99) by a considerable margin. Breakout of sorts for the 5-star FR against Kentucky with a team-high 6-53-0 on seven targets. Everything still is right around the line of scrimmage, though, now averaging just 8.2 YPC for the season. Tennessee’s struggles defending the pass are well-documented, but this Tigers offense isn’t one that can take advantage. I’ll have zero shares of Missouri players in my lineups.
Tennessee:
Top Play(s) – QB Hendon Hooker ($8,300) Bounce back spot? Hooker is definitely playable at his pricing and a 30-point projection. The one cause for concern is the Missouri secondary which is arguably one of the better groups in the entire country statistically. 23rd in pass play success rate and giving up just 16.3 FPPG to opposing QB1s on the season – 11th best in the country.
Fade – RB Jabari Small ($6,300) I have a general rule in CFF and DFS about a one-game buffer typically between when a guy gets injured and when I’ll consider again. Small was banged up against Georgia, only playing a handful of snaps before giving way to backup Jaylen Wright. Josh Heupel said Small “will be ready to go” on Saturday, but how much will he be featured with Tennessee being a three-touchdown favorite.
Bargain Bin – RB Jaylen Wright ($4,400) See above, though Missouri has been equally as good at defending the run this season, allowing just 11.7 FPPG to opposing RB1s – 10th best in the country. If Small were out, we’d have more interest here.
Pivot Play – WR Jalin Hyatt ($7,300) Probably a situation here where Tennessee could go for 40 but we might not need to roster any of the Vols because of pricing and the Missouri defense. Understand the logic doesn’t quite jive there, but Missouri, again, has put up dominant numbers when defending receivers. Opposing WR1s are averaging just 14.2 FPPG against the Tigers. Now, when it’s Cyrus Allen, Dane Key and Gamarion Carter as the top point-getters, I’d like to think that Hyatt and Co. will manage to find success given their superior talent. Missouri is also 75th in explosiveness allowed, and we know the Vols will threaten any defense over the top, particularly Hyatt.
Best of the Rest – WR Cedric Tillman ($6,500) From my untrained eyes, it appeared Tillman was not in peak physical condition vs. Georgia after missing Weeks 4-8 of the regular season, but the Vols ramped up his playing time, on the field for 76 of the 80 offensive snaps. Targeted eight times. WR Bru McCoy ($6,200) is too pricy at this cost for me but played 79 of the 80 offensive snaps against UGA and was the team leader in targets. All three Tennessee receivers are viable options.
Injury Notes – Keep tabs on Small to ensure he’s playing or not.
Oklahoma vs. West Virginia
Point-Spread: OU -7.5
O/U Total: 66.5
Implied Score: OU 37 – WVU 29.5
Weather: 43 degrees / 14% rain / 8 mph winds
Oklahoma:
Top Play(s) – RB Eric Gray ($7,600) There are plenty of mid-priced and sub $4k plays at the RB position this week that I feel Gray will go overlooked. And shouldn’t be the case as he’s hit the century mark in rushing in each of the last three games, facing a WVU defense that has been gouged on the ground of late, allowing nine rushing TDs in the last four weeks. RB1s currently averaging 20.5 FPPG vs. the Mountaineers in 2022. Only downside to Gray here could be 4-star freshman Jovantae Barnes ($4,800) returning to the lineup after missing the last two games due to injury.
Fade – WR Theo Wease ($6,200) Same story every week. Why is Wease priced this highly? Just a single target vs. Baylor. 60 combined receiving yards in the last four games. WR Jalil Farooq ($6,000) is essentially out-snapping Wease 2-1 each week. There is zero reason to roster Wease in any lineup.
Bargain Bin – TE Brayden Willis ($4,600) Cheapest viable option on the Sooners as Willis is third on the team among skill guys in routes run and offensive snaps, while second in targets (39). West Virginia is allowing 8.6 FPPG to opposing tight ends in 2022, swayed mostly by the 22-point performance by Ja’Tavion Sanders earlier in the year.
Pivot Play – QB Dillon Gabriel ($8,000) The bad outweighed the good last week for Gabriel, throwing three costly interceptions in the loss to Baylor. Doesn’t need to worry about the West Virginia secondary from that standpoint as they’ve forced just three interceptions the entire year. We’ve ignored Gabriel for much of the year because of his pricing but has to be in the mix here against one of the worst pass defenses in the country where the Mountaineers rank 101st in success rate, 101st in explosiveness and giving up 28 FPPG to opposing QB1s.
Best of the Rest – WR Marvin Mims ($7,200) Always feel it makes the most sense that if you’re interested in the Gabriel that its best to pair with the Sooners WR1 who now has two 100-yard performances in the last three weeks. Team leader in targets (63) and receptions (38), and this WVU secondary vulnerable over the top where Mims thrives. WR1s are averaging 24.1 FPPG vs. the Mountaineers this season, the ninth highest mark in the country. Rarely over the years have I correctly predicted a big Marvin Mims performance, but I’ll have some shares on Saturday.
Injury Notes – Monitor Barnes’ status for Saturday with his hamstring injury. Gray is downgraded slightly with his return, and Barnes was suited up vs. Baylor.
West Virginia:
Top Play(s) – RB Tony Mathis Jr. ($5,000) Despite being projected to score four touchdowns on Saturday, I don’t have a great feel as to where they’ll come from. Could see two quarterbacks. Multiple WVU receivers are underperforming. The most bankable portion of the West Virginia offense this year has been the running game, and even then, the Mountaineers have failed to average four yards a carry as a team in the last three games. Mathis being back healthy helps, given the last time we saw him at 100%, he rushed for 163 yards and two scores on a good Baylor defense. RB1s are only averaging 16.9 FPPG vs. the Sooners this season, but are 112th in rush play success rate.
Fade – QB JT Daniels ($6,700) Daniels had his worst performance of the season last week, completing just 36% of his throws for 81 yards before giving way to backup Garrett Greene. Sounds like Daniels is not fully healthy, and we should expect to see multiple QBs on Saturday with West Virginia possibly getting a look at who could be the starter in 2023.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – WR Sam James ($5,500) James has arguably been West Virginia’s most effective receiver the last month and a half, averaging 8.4 targets per over the last five games. In comparison, Bryce Ford-Wheaton ($7,000) is averaging 7.8 targets in that span, while sophomore Kaden Prather ($5,400) split offensive snaps in the blowout loss to Iowa State with backup WR Jeremiah Aaron ($3,000). James is the WR to own for me here, but don’t feel the necessity to roster any of them with the QB question marks.
Best of the Rest – n/a
Injury Notes – n/a
Virginia Tech vs. Duke
Point-Spread: Duke -9.5
O/U Total: 49.5
Implied Score: Duke 29.5 – Va Tech 20
Weather: 70 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Virginia Tech:
Top Play(s) – WR Kaleb Smith ($5,200) In a season filled with dismal offensive output from the Hokies, the veteran receiver has been a bright spot with multiple 100-yard receiving performances in the last four games. Smith leads the team in targets (54), receptions (35) and touchdowns (3), while also being Virginia Tech’s top deep threat with a 15.5 aDOT. I don’t see the Hokies having much success on the ground Saturday, so they’ll likely be chucking it around as a 9.5-point underdog.
Fade – RB Keshawn King ($6,300) Outside of the Evan Hull performance early in the season, the Duke rush defense has been stout, ranking 10th in rush play success rate and holding both Miami and Boston College to under 80 yards on the ground the last two games. King will get the bulk of the carries on Saturday with Malachi Thomas out, but this is not a good matchup for a below average ACC offensive line.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – QB Grant Wells ($6,000) There is a 1% chance that I play Grant Wells on a main slate, but here is the argument in favor. 40 or more rushing yards with four touchdowns in the last three games. The Duke secondary is 99th in pass play success rate. The Blue Devils are allowing 30.9 FPPG to opposing QB1s for the year, and just gave up 40 fantasy points last week to a quarterback making his first start of the year for the nation’s 120th ranked scoring offense.
Best of the Rest – n/a. No other Virginia Tech player is projected to score more than eight fantasy points.
Injury Notes – RB Malachi Thomas ($6,900) Thomas is doubtful per HC Brent Pry.
Duke:
Top Play(s) – QB Riley Leonard ($7,900) This is not who I wanted to list initially as Duke’s top play but the backfield is so evenly distributed between 2-3 options that it’s tough to settle on one running back. 25 or more fantasy points scored in six of the last seven games for Leonard who provides an incredible floor with his rushing ability, hitting 50 or more yards on the ground six times in that same span. Overall numbers for the Hokies defense against the pass are fine, but they’e allowed Zach Tyson, Tyler Van Dyke and MJ Morris to score 30 fantasy points against them in recent weeks. Leonard should hit that 25-point baseline again.
Fade – RBs. Debated this one for quite a while. Duke is second in the conference in rushing and 43rd nationally in rush play percentage. They want to keep the ball on the ground. The problem here is potentially four different options involved in the running game with Leonard, RB Jordan Waters ($5,000), Jaquez Moore ($4,700) and potentially Jaylen Coleman ($5,100) who was in uniform last week vs. BC. 25% of Waters’ 94 attempts on the year have come in the red-zone so he would be the top option for me, but you’re also likely to see a three-way split of 30 carries in the backfield. Your guess is as good as mine here as to which RB leads Duke in carries Saturday. ***Coleman being out would increase my interest here.
Bargain Bin – WR Sahmir Hagans ($4,100) With Eli Pancol down for the year, Hagans stepped into the starting lineup last week and converted on all five of his targets, while also finding the end-zone vs. Boston College.
Pivot Play – WR Jalon Calhoun ($5,900) Would like Calhoun more on a smaller slate, but not a 14-gamer as his price tag. Double-digit targets in two of the last three games, but Duke hasn’t thrown for more than one touchdown in each of the last six games so the production for Calhoun really hasn’t been there. Will see less than 5% ownership in larger GPPs, and Virginia Tech is allowing 19.6 FPPG to opposing WR1s this season.
Best of the Rest – n/a
Injury Notes – WR Eli Pancol ($4,300) Doesn’t have the injury designation on DK, but Pancol is out for the season.
Purdue vs. Illinois
Point-Spread: Illini -6.5
O/U Total: 44.5
Implied Score: Illini 25.5 – Purd 19
Weather: 33 degrees / 0% rain / 14 mph winds
Purdue:
If Purdue can only muster three points at home against Iowa, then I sure as hell don’t like their chances on the road at Illinois. Second fewest fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. Fourth fewest fantasy points allowed to opposing RB1s. Second fewest fantasy points allowed to opposing WR1s. Those numbers are absolutely inflated by some of the abysmal offenses in the Big Ten West and Illinois’ cupcake non-conference schedule, but this is still an above average defense in the conference. Only option here is Charlie ‘Chuck Sizzle’ Jones ($8,100) who was targeted a season-high 18 times last week vs. the Hawkeyes. No other Purdue receiver was targeted more than four times.
Illinois:
Just two options for the Illini every week – it’s a matter of deciding if whether or not to spend the big bucks on RB Chase Brown ($8,100) and WR Isaiah Williams ($6,000). Surprisingly, because of the options at our disposal at RB on the slate, I might lean Williams here when deciding between the two. 23 receptions on 25 targets the last three weeks with three touchdowns in that span. Williams is the perfect option for the DraftKings PPR format and facing a Purdue defense that is allowing 24.4 FPPG to opposing WR1s on the year. That is tied for the seventh highest mark in the entire country. We know what to expect of Brown, averaging 28.6 carries per game which is the highest in the nation. Purdue’s strength is their front seven, though, ranking 18th in rush play success rate and allowing just 16 FPPG to RB1s.
Indiana vs. Ohio State
Point-Spread: OSU -39.5
O/U Total: 58.5
Implied Score: OSU 49 – Ind 9.5
Weather: 36 degrees / 10% rain / 10 mph winds
Indiana:
Second-lowest implied total on the slate. Zero interest. Blowout of epic proportions forthcoming.
Ohio State:
I wish I could provide more helpful insight here, but the strategy with Ohio State is somewhat repetitive as we’ve had them on the slate nearly every week. Roster one of the skill position players in cash games. Marvin Harrison Jr. ($7,900), Emeka Egubka ($7,600) and Miyan Williams ($7,300) all project well. Williams would be the safe bet in cash as it doesn’t sound like TreVeyon Henderson will play with HC Ryan Day saying that he intends to get snaps for the backup RBs on Saturday. In GPP, I would not risk any of the backups behind Williams because he played 61 of 63 offensive snaps vs. Northwestern. I don’t know who would get the nod between Dallas Hayden or Chip Trayanum as the first guy off the bench. In GPP, game stack scenario for me, pairing Stroud with one or both of the top receivers. WR Julian Fleming ($5,100) gets consideration because of his pricing ($5,100) and could be played solo or paired with another OSU receiver. Was targeted a season-high eight times last Saturday.
Notre Dame vs. Navy
Point-Spread: ND -15.5
O/U Total: 39.5
Implied Score: ND 27.5 – Navy 12
Weather: 64 degrees / 10% rain / 11 mph winds
Notre Dame:
Top Play(s) – TE Michael Mayer ($6,800) Reluctantly my top player for the Irish this week, but will be heavily owned yet again, and would rather play Mayer when he was listed in the $5k range. But with every passing week, the numbers grow larger, as Mayer accounts for 37% of the team’s receiving production and half of Notre Dame’s receiving touchdowns. The highest of floors. Cash game play that I would advise fading in large GPPs.
Fade – QB Drew Pyne ($5,800) Notre Dame is winning in spite of Pyne, not because of him. Zero interest on a main slate.
Bargain Bin – WR Lorenzo Styles ($3,300) This is a gut-feeling play that I would strongly advise everyone disregard. Three weeks ago, Audric Estime was dealing with fumbling issues. This was addressed by the coaching staff. The following game against Syracuse, Estime ran it 20 times for 100+ yards and two scores. HC Marcus Freeman was asked this week about sophomore Lorenzo Styles and the drops that have plagued him this season. “The moments right after he dropped the ball when he came on the sideline, I told him, ‘Hey, one play, one life. The next time you get the opportunity, then catch the ball. We believe in you. There’s been no faith lost in Lorenzo,” said Freeman this week. Snap counts would dictate otherwise as we saw, Braden Lenzy, Jayden Thomas and Tobias Merriweather all play more vs. Clemson last Saturday. But I wouldn’t be surprised if ND uses this opportunity to get Styles some confidence.
Pivot Play – Doubling up on ND running backs. I wouldn’t roll with this strategy personally, but I also think it has some merit as it’s essentially been a 50-50 split the last two games with Audric Estime (5,400) and Logan Diggs ($4,500) sharing the ND backfield. 200+ rushing yards combined between the two vs. both Syracuse and Clemson, two of the top defenses in the ACC. Major credit goes to the ND offensive line here that is road grading defenders, ranked 12th in stuff rate, 23rd in line yards and 18th in rush play success rate. One Notre Dame running back should be in your lineup Saturday. Two is risky, but viable.
Best of the Rest – n/a
Injury Notes – n/a
Navy:
Not a single player is projected to score more than nine fantasy points against a Notre Dame defense on the rise. Full team fade.
SMU vs. South Florida
Point-Spread: SMU -17.5
O/U Total: 72.5
Implied Score: SMU 45 – USF 27.5
Weather: 73 degrees / 14% rain / 6 mph winds
SMU:
Top Play(s) – RB Tyler Lavine ($3,400) I would love some news this week or at least Saturday morning to confirm who is available to us in the SMU backfield to ensure this is the top play (maybe) of the entire slate. It sounds like Camar Wheaton will again be unavailable, along with Tre Siggers. TJ McDaniel was in uniform last week but had just one attempt. And Velton Gardner looks to have re-injured whatever was ailing him. So this could be the Tyler Lavine show against on Saturday, and why not with the way he’s playing. South Florida also has the 123rd ranked rush defense in the country after having allowed over nine yards a carry to Temple last week. NINE.
Fade – n/a. This is a team that put up 77 points last week, facing a defense that allowed 54 points to Temple. If its an SMU player that is available and playing on Saturday, he’s an option.
Bargain Bin – TE RJ Maryland ($3,500) Maryland’s counterpart at tight end, Ben Redding, is lost for the season so the freshman will now have the position all to himself for the remainder of the year. Played a season-high 58 snaps last week vs. Houston, converting on all four of his targets with a pair of touchdowns, giving him three scores in the last three games. As has been the case with every other position in 2022, USF has struggled to defend tight ends, allowing 8.7 FPPG to TE1s with four players scoring 10 points or more this season against the Bulls.
Pivot Play – WR outside of Rashee Rice. We did say everyone is an option here, but still a major risk selecting any receiver outside of Rice, who continues to dominate for SMU with a whopping 36% target share. Jeremy Kerley ($4,600), Roderick Daniels Jr. ($3,100) and Dylan Goffney ($3,000) all played 43% or more of the team’s offensive snaps on Saturday. If forced to choose an order of preference, I would roll with Kerley>Goffney>Daniels Jr. in that order.
Best of the Rest – QB Tanner Mordecai ($8,100) How can you not play a guy that threw 10 touchdowns a week ago? Mordecai looked rejuvenated after a week off, and now faces a defense that is allowing 33.9 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season – third highest mark in the country behind Charlotte and Houston…the team that he threw those 10 touchdowns on.
Injury Notes – See above on the running backs. Don’t suspect we see Wheaton, Siggers or Gardner on Saturday.
South Florida:
Top Play(s) – RB Brian Battie ($5,300) Most USF sites have switched over to basketball or discussing the Jeff Scott firing so there’s not a ton of info we can go on here with regards to any injuries or football-related news. We do have a few bring back candidates for game stacks on the USF side, starting with the RB1 in Battie who is averaging 6.5 yards per carry for the year and coming off back-to-back 100-yard rushing performances. SMU is the 118th ranked rush defense in the country, allowing 20.2 FPPG to opposing RB1s.
Fade – RB Kelley Joiner ($4,500) Just four carries in each of the last two games, while also fumbling against Temple. Hopefully this leads to 20+ carries from Battie Saturday.
Bargain Bin – QB Katravis Marsh ($5,000) We’re expecting four touchdowns from the USF side on Saturday, and they won’t all come from the 170-pound Battie. Marsh is a backup quarterback for a reason but was praised last week after throwing for 190 yards and three touchdowns, effectively coordinating the offense. Not a run-first quarterback but does have ability with his legs too. SMU is allowing 32.3 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season, boosted of course by the 82-point performance from Clayton Tune. But Tai Lavatai, Max Duggan, Taulia Tagovailoa and Braylon Braxton all scored 24 fantasy points or more against this defense. I won’t be playing Marsh this week, but he’s cheap enough to consider.
Pivot Play – WR Jimmy Horn Jr. ($5,100) Head coach firings can lead to new opportunities for players that were seemingly out of favor. Not that Horn was out of favor, still seeing starting reps, but has not taken off in his sophomore year the way some expected. Second on the team in targets and routes run and did have a 55-yard rushing touchdown vs. Temple.
Best of the Rest – WR Xavier Weaver ($5,900) If Weaver played on a better team, he would have far more national attention. 35% target share and five of the team’s 12 receiving touchdowns in 2022 – all coming in the last four games. As bad as the SMU defense is, their numbers against opposing WRs aren’t bad. Until last week, the highest point total allowed by the Mustangs was 23.2 for Keylon Stokes. Now, four of the top five fantasy performances by wide receivers against SMU are on the Houston roster.
Injury Notes – n/a
Alabama vs. Mississippi
Point-Spread: Ala -11.5
O/U Total: 64.5
Implied Score: Ala 38 – Miss 26.5
Weather: 51 degrees / 0% rain / 10 mph winds
Alabama:
Top Play(s) – RB Jahmyr Gibbs ($8,700) Give me Ole Miss +11.5 here. Granted, I have not paid a ton of attention to what has been said by coaches or players down in Tuscaloosa this week, but what are the motivation levels like for the Tide with the season effectively over after two losses? I’ll take Gibbs as the top play still with his rushing/receiving ability, though I’m leaning towards fading the entire Alabama offense. How many times have we said that the last five years?
Fade – WR Traeshon Holden ($6,000) and Kobe Prentice ($5,200) Traeshon Holden appears to be a prime transfer candidate after the season. I thought he was injured, but was snagging passes in pregame warmups last week, but didn’t see a single snap. Prentice has fallen to second string with JoJo Earle back in the lineup.
Bargain Bin – WR JoJo Earle ($4,300) Alabama continues to ramp up Earle’s playing time with each passing week, seeing a season-high 56 offensive snaps against LSU. Production was minimal, but Alabama really didn’t spread it around much beyond Gibbs and Ja’Corey Brooks. He’d be the player I take a dart throw on.
Pivot Play – WR Ja’Corey Brooks ($6,300) For as much as we’re downplaying the Alabama offense this week, you have to love the upward trend of Brooks who has emerged as the go-to WRs, posting 7-97-1 last week on 16 targets. Three touchdowns in the last four games.
Best of the Rest – QB Bryce Young ($9,300) Zero shot I’m playing Young this week, which maybe could lead to the argument he’s a GPP dart throw. But the 22.7 projection we have for Young is undoubtedly his lowest of the season. It doesn’t sound like Young is 100% healthy either. The argument in favor of Young – Ole Miss has allowed a combined 90 fantasy points to the last two QBs its faced. If you’re playing Young, its in a game stack where this game shoots out.
Injury Notes – n/a
Ole Miss:
Top Play(s) – RB Quinshon Judkins ($7,000) There is no doubt about it that Nick Saban’s subtle comments this week about Judkins were a ploy to get him to Tuscaloosa next year in this ever-evolving market this is the college football transfer portal. Ok back to the game. 25 carries in each of the last three games for Judkins, and part of that is even with a healthy Zach Evans. Speaks to just how good this freshman has been in 2022. We’ve seen some slippage from the Alabama rush defense of late, allowing five rushing TDs in the last three games with both LSU and Tennessee averaging over 4.5 yards per carry. Ole Miss should still be able to run on Bama Saturday.
Fade – RB Zach Evans ($6,100) And on that note, tough to play Evans at his pricing despite scoring a touchdown in all but two games this season. Coming into the year, we thought there was a possibility of a 1A – 1B situation with Evans and another Ole Miss running back. Now, Evans is officially the RB2.
Bargain Bin – WR Dayton Wade ($3,700) Interesting look at the snap counts for Ole Miss in the matchup with A&M back in Week 8. Dayton Wade played 83 of the 86 available offensive snaps vs. the Aggies, but we didn’t see any other Ole Miss receiver take a step back with playing time. More 4-wide sets, eliminating the tight end position in the passing game? Minimal yardage, but Wade was targeted seven times with a touchdown in the win.
Pivot Play – QB Jaxson Dart ($6,400) Dart does not project well this week at just 15.7 fantasy points, though we’ve seen dual-threats like Jayden Daniels and Hendon Hooker give this Alabama defense all sorts of fits, combining for 90 fantasy points in their matchups with the Tide. Tough sell on any quarterback on a team that runs the ball 65% of the time. I’d probably like Dart most in a game stack with a few Alabama players on the other side.
Best of the Rest – Pick your poison with the Ole Miss receivers who all played over 92% of the offensive snaps against Texas A&M, but produced all of 109 receiving yards between them. It is not necessary to pair one of them with Jaxson Dart.
Injury Notes – n/a
Iowa State vs. Oklahoma State
Point-Spread: Iowa St -1.5
O/U Total: 48.5
Implied Score: Iowa St 25 – OK St 23.5
Weather: 47 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Iowa St:
Top Play(s) – WR Xavier Hutchinson ($8,300) Tough choice on the top play for Iowa State this week as we have two options to choose from (more on that later). Have to roll with the nation’s leader in targets and receptions here, facing a lifeless Oklahoma State defense that is allowing 25.5 FPPG to opposing WR1s.
Fade – RB Jirehl Brock ($6,000) See below.
Bargain Bin – RB Cartevious Norton ($3,900) Situation as I’ve read last week is that Jirehl Brock suffered what looked to be a season-ending injury when it happened, but moments later he was on the sidelines with his helmet on, ready to come back in. He didn’t, as it was the Cartevious Norton show the rest of the way, running for 69 yards and two touchdowns on 18 attempts. I say “show” in a joking manner because of how dreadful the Iowa State running game has been this season behind one of the worst O-lines in the Big 12. It was always a matter of when, not if, that Norton would take over the RB1 job and tea leaves are pointing in that direction. Oklahoma State has allowed the most fantasy points in the country this season to opposing RB1s.
Pivot Play – QB Hunter Dekkers ($5,700) I’m having trouble pegging this game because the matchup against this Oklahoma State defense if very favorable, yet Iowa State is projected to score just 25 points. That number is not inspiring. That said, Oklahoma State is allowing 33.6 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season, the fourth most in the country. I said two weeks ago that I would never play Dekkers again after throwing for three interceptions vs. Oklahoma, but here we are again.
Best of the Rest – WR Jaylin Noel ($4,900) Apologies to those last week who I convinced to starting Noel. Played just 51% of the offensive snaps with one reception on four targets. WR Dimitri Stanley ($3,800) ended up seing the field more and is now averaging 6.1 targets over the last seven games. I would not willingly roster any Iowa State wideout other than Hutchinson.
Injury Notes – See above on Brock. His availability won’t dictate our interest much in Norton, but if he’s out, that’s a big boost.
Oklahoma State:
Top Play(s) – WR Bryson Green ($5,900) Going to make this Oklahoma State portion of the writeup a brief one as this is close to a full-team fade with the surplus of injuries and facing the best defense in the Big 12. Green has emerged as the team’s clear-cut WR1 I would say over the last three games now with 29 targets in that span with multiple 100-yard receiving performances. Garrett Rangel looking like he belongs in his first career start at least keeps the Oklahoma State wideouts in the conversation.
Fade – RB Dominic Richardson ($5,900) Richardson has now failed to surpass four yards a carry in any game since September 10th. Good luck against the No. 1 rush defense in the conference.
Bargain Bin – WR Langston Anderson ($3,000) Anderson is only in play if we get word that Stephon Johnson Jr. ($3,900) is out after leaving last week due to injury. Anderson stepped into his starting spot in the lineup, catching three passes for 61 yards and a score. This is a desperation play and only applicable if Johnson is confirmed out.
Pivot Play – WR Brennan Presley ($6,000) Green is the superior play of the two and $100 cheaper. Meaning Presley will be next to nothing in terms of ownership percentages. Converted on seven of his eight targets last week vs. Kansas. The fact that Garrett Rangel ($7,500) looked good last week does keep the Oklahoma State receivers in play, and Oklahoma State will have to throw vs. the Cyclones given their struggles in the run game.
Best of the Rest – n/a
Injury Notes – Where do we start?
Louisville vs. Clemson
Point-Spread: Clem -7.5
O/U Total: 51.5
Implied Score: Clem 29.5 – UL 22
Weather: 66 degrees / 0% rain / 13 mph winds
Louisville:
Full-team fade, you’re not playing anyone on the Louisville side. I’m not playing a hobbled QB Malik Cunningham ($7,600) on the road, projected at just 22 fantasy points. RB Tiyon Evans ($5,400) has re-assumed the starting running back role for the Cardinals but facing a Clemson defense that allows just 11.2 FPPG to opposing RB1s. You figure Louisville will have to throw it some against this Clemson secondary but WR Tyler Hudson ($7,100) is too expensive for a wideout that scored just his first touchdown of the year last week. Only one receiver has scored more than 20 fantasy points on the Tigers all year.
Clemson:
RB Will Shipley ($6,700) is the only player of interest on the Clemson side and one that I also think could see low ownership with the attraction to some of the cheap RBs on the slate. Completely out on the Clemson passing game and all of its components this week against a Louisville defense that has completely transformed itself the last 4-5 games. Louisville is No. 1 in the country in sacks per game (3.78) and don’t allow any big plays through the air. First five games, Louisville gave up 31 plays of 20 yards or more. Last four, that number has been cut in half to just 15 plays allowed. A defense that puts constant pressure on the QB and limits big plays through the air. That does not bode well whatsoever for QB D.J. Uiagalelei ($7,100).
Nebraska vs. Michigan
Point-Spread: UM -30.5
O/U Total: 48.5
Implied Score: UM 39.5 – Neb 9
Weather: 40 degrees / 62% rain / 12 mph winds
Nebraska:
Michigan wins in a romp on Saturday. Lowest implied total on the slate.
Michigan:
Top Play(s) – RB Blake Corum ($8,300) Self-explanatory. RB1s are allowing 22.8 FPPG against the Cornhuskers this season – sixth most in the country. Corum is right in the mix for a trip to New York for the Heisman, so while there are bigger stakes to play for this season to where Jim Harbaugh won’t jeopardize his RB1’s health, expect a heavy dosage the running game to pad those stats.
Fade – WRs. Nobody is that expensive to where they’re considered an all-out fade, but expect to see 6-7 different options like we did last week in the blowout of Rutgers. WR Ronnie Bell continues to pace the group with 26% target share but hasn’t found the end-zone in eight weeks. Cornelius Johnson continues to have bone-headed drops and fumbles. Andrel Anthony saw a season high in offensive snaps vs. Rutgers but resulted in just two targets.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – RB Donovan Edwards ($5,600) Double-digit carries in each of the last three games as Michigan continues to ramp up his workload. Here’s a fun stat. We mentioned how RB1s vs. Nebraska are averaging 22.8 FPPG against the Cornhuskers. RB2s are averaging 10.3 FPPG. Doesn’t sound like much, but that’s tied for sixth most in the country.
Best of the Rest – QB J.J. McCarthy ($6,500) If McCarthy were $5,500, I’d say we can give him a look. But the only time he’s been a productive fantasy option this year is when the Wolverines were trailing at Indiana. I don’t expect Michigan to trail for a single minute against Nebraska on Saturday and there could be inclement weather.
Injury Notes – WR Roman Wilson ($4,800) Wilson was ruled out this week by Harbaugh, but expected back for Illinois next Saturday.
Maryland vs. Penn State
Point-Spread: PSU -10.5
O/U Total: 59.5
Implied Score: PSU 35 – MD 24.5
Weather: 43 degrees / 10% rain / 9 mph winds
Maryland:
RB Roman Hemby ($6,400) is the only player of mild interest on the Maryland side of the ball against a somewhat leaky Penn State run defense that is 49th in rush play success rate and allowing 16.7 FPPG to opposing RB1s. That seems to have been shored up since the Michigan game, where the Nittany Lions have limited their last three opponents to under four yards a carry – and that included Mo Ibrahim and Miyan Williams/TreVeyon Henderson. Penn State is limiting quarterbacks to just 16.9 FPPG this season and Taulia Tagovailoa ($6,600) is coming off a season-worst 77 passing yards vs. Wisconsin. No thanks vs. this secondary. No receiver has more than 19% target share on the year as Maryland spreads it around in the passing game.
Penn State:
Top Play(s) – Freshmen RBs. We know at this point that Penn State will be able to run the ball on Maryland who has allowed over 200 yards rushing in each of the last two games to Northwestern and Wisconsin. The decision here comes down to which RB to roster between Kaytron Allen or Nick Singleton. Because while Allen was the star of last week with 86 yards and three touchdowns, the carry distribution remains 50-50 between the two. Not sure I would play both in a lineup together, but you can make the case for either player on Saturday.
Fade – WR Mitchell Tinsley ($6,200) Tinsley has been a solid component to the Penn State passing game, but when comparing to preseason expectations, he’s been a bust as some thought he could produce similarly to Jahan Dotson. Still second on the team in targets (58) and leads the Nittany Lions in routes run in 2022, but the production hasn’t been there. Maryland is excellent at limiting big plays, ranked third nationally in pass play explosiveness. Similar to last week, our impression is that the Penn State ground game does the majority of the work Saturday.
Bargain Bin – TE Theo Johnson ($3,500) 11 of Johnson’s 13 receptions this season have come in the last three games, finding the end-zone twice in the span. Maryland is allowing 8.6 FPPG to opposing tight ends this season with multiple Big Ten tight ends scoring 20 fantasy points or more against the Terps since conference play started.
Pivot Play – WR Parker Washington ($6,700) While we don’t see Maryland scoring 24 points this week, Vegas does right now, so the Penn State passing game may have to do a little something on Saturday to win this matchup. That wasn’t the case last week vs. lowly Indiana where Parker Washington was targeted just four times. Just look at the two games prior to that. While Maryland is excellent at suppressing big plays in the passing game, the Terps are just 75th in pass play success rate. Challenging teams down the fiel
d isn’t how Washington is utilized with an aDOT of just 9.3 for the year.
Best of the Rest – QB Sean Clifford ($7,200) Very real possibility we see a situation similar to last week where the Nittany Lions win going away, and 5-star Drew Allar gets meaningful reps in the second half. Maryland’s secondary is good enough to challenge Clifford, allowing just 22.2 FPPG. Don’t see myself having any shares of Clifford in my lineups.
Injury Notes – n/a
UCF vs. Tulane
Point-Spread: Tul -1.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Implied Score: Tul 28 – UCF 26.5
Weather: 64 degrees / 0% rain / 13 mph winds
UCF:
Top Play(s) – WR Ryan O’Keefe ($6,600) UCF is going to have to throw on Saturday against one of the best G5 run defenses in Tulane, and there isn’t a massive downgrade from a throw standpoint if Mikey Keene were to get another start. And it seems that O’Keefe and Keene have a pretty good understanding of each other, because ROK has been targeted 23 times of over the last two games. Game script sets up for the Knights having to throw more than normal.
Fade – RB Isaiah Bowser ($5,400) See below under R.J. Harvey.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – WR Kobe Hudson ($6,300) Since returning from injury in Week 6, Hudson has quickly asserted himself as the WR2 behind O’Keefe, now averaging 6.5 targets in the last four games with four touchdowns. The trio of O’Keefe, Hudson and Javon Baker ($5,900) played 54% or more of the offensive snaps for Memphis and there were not any other WRs involved in the offense. Just one other wideout saw a single target last week.
Best of the Rest – RB R.J. Harvey ($5,400) This was trending towards happening for a few weeks now and I think we finally saw the change on Saturday with Harvey rushing for 151 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries in the win over Memphis. Impressive for a converted quarterback that transferred over from UVA a few years back. Isaiah Bowser may take the first carry each week, but Harvey is RB1. Is this the best matchup for a possible 50-50 backfield? Nope. Tulane is a dominant G5 run defense, allowing just 11.2 FPPG and 21st in rush play success rate.
Injury Notes – Stay tuned with QB news. Based on quotes from HC Gus Malzahn, it sounds like Keene will start, but we’ll see both quarterbacks at some point. Makes for an easy fade situation.
Tulane:
Top Play(s) – QB Michael Pratt ($6,100) There’s a chance this ends up being a better competitive football game to watch than one to actually target from a fantasy perspective. Pratt has been on the bad end of some poor game scripts with with double-digit wins in each of the last three games, but they’ll need him Saturday with a 1.5-point spread that started out at 2.5 when the week started. Statistically, UCF is far worse in the secondary, ranked 81st in pass play success rate and allowing 23.0 FPPG to opposing QBs. Great price point at $6.1k.
Fade – Everyone that Michael Pratt throws to. And it’s a lot of them. Seven different players have at least 17 receptions this season, with DeaJaun McDougle the team leader with just 25 catches. No player has more than 15% of the target share. It is totally acceptable to just play Michael Pratt naked and not pair him with anyone.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – RB Tyjae Spears ($6,500) Spears is Tulane’s most talented offensive playmaker but did leave the game last week with an injury, only playing 29 of 71 offensive snaps. If you’re investing in Spears on Saturday, you have to make sure he’s playing. And its not a great matchup either so I’d rather just avoid any mystery. RB1s are averaging just 14.8 FPPG vs. the Knights as UCF is 23rd in rush play explosiveness and 22nd in success rate.
Best of the Rest – RB Shaadie Clayton ($4,200) Bad matchup as we stated, but if Spears were to somehow not play, Clayton would assume the RB1 role after rushing for 100+ last week vs. Tulsa in his place. Former 4-star Colorado recruit is not lacking for talent.
Injury Notes – Keep tabs on Spears for Saturday.
