Alabama vs. LSU
Point-Spread: Bama -2.5
O/U Total: 58.5
Implied Score: Bama 30.5 – LSU 28
Weather: 75 degrees / 32% rain / 6 mph winds
Alabama:
Top Play(s) – WR Germie Bernard ($4,000) This price doesn’t make sense for Bernard. When Alabama drops back to pass, the ball usually goes in one of two directions – either to Bernard or Ryan Williams who account for 49% of the team’s target share and nine of the 13 receiving touchdowns. Bernard has 70 or more receiving yards in each of the last four games.
Fade – RBs. LSU’s run defense is pretty average across the board, ranked 45th in success rate and 67th in EPA per run play. I’m not sure Alabama is the team to take advantage of that, as their 80th in run play success rate offensively and 47th in yards per game on the ground. Very “un-Alabama like.” Jam Miller and Justice Haynes split carries, making this situation even less desirable.
Bargain Bin – WR Kendrick Law ($3,200) Alabama has not had a WR3 emerge this season beyond Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard, but Law is the receiver that plays the most alongside those two, seeing 62% of the team’s snaps last time out against Missouri.
Pivot Play – WR Ryan Williams ($6,800) The last time Alabama was on the road in a ranked matchup, Williams was targeted 19 times at Tennessee. Do we see a concerted effort again to get the 5-star freshman involved early and often on Saturday night? Four receivers have scored 19 or more fantasy points vs. LSU this season, two of which came in the same game with Ole Miss.
Best of the Rest – QB Jalen Milroe ($10,000) The 24.7-point projection for Milroe at this pricing just doesn’t make it fiscally responsible to play him as one of our QB options. The LSU defense also hasn’t given up a ton of big-time performances this year to opposing QBs, with just one player – Marcel Reed – scoring more than 23 fantasy points against the Tigers.
Injury Notes – n/a
LSU:
Top Play(s) – WR Aaron Anderson ($5,200) Revenge game of sorts for Anderson, the former Alabama transfer, who now has scored double-digit fantasy points in all but one game this season. We prefer this pricing and Anderson’s consistency over the other LSU receiving options this week. Just three receivers have scored 20 or more fantasy points against Alabama this season – two of which coming in the same game vs. Georgia when they were down five touchdowns – so having an LSU wideout in your lineups is not a necessity.
Fade – QB Garrett Nussmeier ($8,900) Hope this doesn’t come back to bite me, but the spend-down options are much more appealing on this slate than Nussmeier, facing an Alabama defense that is 10th in pass D success rate and giving up just 13.8 FPPG to quarterbacks this season. I’d much rather pair a Nico Iamaleava and Josh Hoover together at QB and S-Flex if possible. If playing Nussmeier, it is paramount to stack at least two LSU pass-catchers together in the same lineup because that means LSU threw the ball 40-45 times.
Bargain Bin – TE Mason Taylor ($3,700) Taylor is second on the team in targets (53) and receptions (39), and simply does not come off the field, playing 99.4% of LSU’s offensive snaps this season. Alabama has allowed three SEC tight ends to score double-digit fantasy points against them this season.
Pivot Play – RB Caden Durham ($5,800) LSU’s run game goes hot and cold, so it’s a major risk to roster Durham this week. The Tide are 17th in EPA per run play defensively but have allowed three SEC running backs to score 20 or more fantasy points already this season. LSU must be balanced on offense to win this game tonight, so Durham will play a role. How effective is TBD.
Best of the Rest – WR Kyren Lacy ($7,700) Here’s the issue with rostering Kyren Lacy this week. LSU’s WR1 has three 100-yard performances this season. Two of those came with CJ Daniels either OUT or severely limited. Daniels is expected to play Saturday, so I’m not sure it makes a whole lot of sense to roster Lacy at this salary.
Injury Notes – n/a. For the first time in a while, nothing of note injury-wise for LSU this week. WR CJ Daniels was upgraded to probable on Friday.
Oklahoma State vs. TCU
Point-Spread: TCU -10.5
O/U Total: 66.5
Implied Score: TCU 38 – OK St 27.5
Weather: 63 degrees / 10% rain / 4 mph winds
Oklahoma State:
Top Play(s) – WR Brennan Presley ($6,700) It’s record watch season this late in the year for many players like Presley who needs one catch to become the school’s all-time leader in receptions. In this lost season for Oklahoma State, it sounds like the Cowboys will try and make a concerted effort to get Presley the rock on Saturday.
Fade – QB Alan Bowman ($6,800) This one is quite simple. Bowman will start on Saturday but beat writers have hinted that if Oklahoma State starts slow offensively, a permanent change could be made at the QB position. TCU is solid in the secondary, allowing just 19.4 FPPG to quarterbacks and are 39th in pass D success rate.
Bargain Bin – WR Ayo Shotomide-King ($3,000) Looks like ASK played 50% of the team’s snaps last week which was a season-high, catching three passes on four targets.
Pivot Play – RB Ollie Gordon ($8,200) Simply no way anyone can stomach rostering Gordon for this price no matter the matchup with how disappointing the Oklahoma State run game has been in 2024. That said, it needs to be noted that TCU is 101st in yards allowed on the ground, 99th in rush D success rate and give up around 30 FPPG to opposing backfields. So long as bowl eligibility is a possibility (one more loss will eliminate Oklahoma State), I suspect the starters will continue to play their normal amount of reps.
Best of the Rest – WR De’Zhaun Stribling ($6,100) or WR Rashod Owens ($5,000) Second and third on the team in targets and routes run this season. Boundary receivers like Stribling and Owens have found the most success against the Horned Frogs, with five players scoring 17 or more fantasy points in their respective matchups.
Injury Notes – n/a
TCU:
Top Play(s) – WR Savion Williams ($5,800) Lock of the slate over Dylan Sampson, over Ashton Jeanty, over anyone at this price. Williams is our third-highest projected WR for the entire weekend, and highest-projected receiver on the night slate with his rushing usage on the ground the last three games. Not just as a wildcat QB either now – Williams is taking legit handoffs from Josh Hoover, all the while leading the team in targets last week.
Fade – RB Cam Cook ($4,500) Oklahoma State’s run defense can cure any woes, but Cook has been abysmal the last three weeks since his “demotion” with just 31 rushing yards on 13 attempts. We’d look to RB Jeremy Payne ($3,000) if selecting a TCU running back, facing the single worst run defense in the country as Oklahoma State allows 248 YPG. Would not totally discount RB Trent Battle ($3,800) who had six carries last week and has moved ahead of Cook seemingly on the depth chart. Oklahoma State allows 37 FPPG to opposing backfields.
Bargain Bin – WR Eric McAlister ($4,300) After being shut out in Week 6 vs. Houston, McAlister has a combined 190 receiving yards over the last three games. His usage has gone up, specifically in the last two games with Savion Williams transitioning to his new role as the two players shared the same position.
Pivot Play – WR Jack Bech ($7,700) Last week looked like the September version of Jack Bech with 98 yards and two touchdowns vs. Baylor. Multiple TCU beat writers projected Bech to hit the 100-yard mark this week as Oklahoma State is starting multiple freshmen in the secondary.
Best of the Rest – QB Josh Hoover ($8,600) TCU is 8th nationally in pass play percentage, Hoover is 6th in yards per game through the air (327.4 YPG), and Oklahoma State gives up 26.4 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. Oklahoma State isn’t stopping Hoover. The only way Hoover fails to hit value this week is if Savion Williams is clicking in the wildcat.
Injury Notes – n/a
Central Florida vs. Arizona State
Point-Spread: ASU -3
O/U Total: 56
Implied Score: ASU 29.5 – UCF 26.5
Weather: 69 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Central Florida:
Top Play(s) – RB RJ Harvey ($9,800) Shame that we won’t get to see Harvey vs. Skattebo because that would’ve been one helluva heavyweight battle between two of the best fantasy running backs in the country. Harvey is rolling the last three games with over 500 combined rushing yards and seven touchdowns. That includes at Iowa State and against a top 10 opponent in BYU, so we’re not threatened by the Arizona State run defense here.
Fade – QB Dylan Rizk ($7,000) Rizk was tremendous in his first-career start, scoring 29 fantasy points while completing 80% of his passes for 294 yards and three scores while adding 55 yards on the ground. The trouble is the Arizona State defense does not allow many fantasy points to QBs this season – just 15.6 FPPG – and now Rizk goes on the road against a team that is not a dead body like Arizona displayed last week. I think here you either spend down to Nico Iamaleava or just roster the other QB in this matchup instead.
Bargain Bin – TE Randy Pittman ($3,200) UCF’s sophomore tight end simply does not come off the field, playing 95% of the team’s offensive snaps. Pittman easily had his best performance of the season with 5-80-2 on six targets vs. Arizona. Competent QB play did wonders for all of the UCF pass-catchers.
Pivot Play – WR Jacoby Jones ($4,400) Why hasn’t Jones received more playing time prior to this, while UCF struggled all season to find a decent WR2 opposite Kobe Hudson? Back-to-back 100-yard receiving performances for the Ohio transfer.
Best of the Rest – WR Kobe Hudson ($4,200) Much of the attention the last two games has gone to Jacoby Jones, and rightfully so, but Hudson still played significantly more snaps than his wide receiver counterpart last week and did catch four passes on five targets. Hudson is still an integral part of the UCF offensive game plan.
Injury Notes – n/a
Arizona State:
Top Play(s) – QB Sam Leavitt ($7,300) Leavitt returned from injury and didn’t show any signs of rust, throwing for 304 yards and three touchdowns vs. Oklahoma State, scoring 30 fantasy points without being much of a factor at all on the ground. Leavitt has a strong matchup this week with a UCF defense that is allowing 23 FPPG to opposing QBs this season and 109th in pass D success rate. Would imagine he’ll have more on his plate with Arizona State’s workhorse RB not in the lineup.
Fade – WR Xavier Guillory ($3,500) Seems like the coaching staff is looking for other solutions at the outside receiver spot beyond Tyson as Guillory is not getting the job done, playing a season-low 48% of snaps last week as Troy Omeire and Jake Smith (remember that name) are getting more run the past two games.
Bargain Bin – RB Kyson Brown ($3,400) Assuming Skattebo is out Saturday night, Brown will be among the highest-owned players on the slate as the likely candidate to assume the RB1 spot after rushing for 63 yards and two scores last week. You can’t beat the price here for Brown, but if you wanted a reason to fade the ownership, UCF is only allowing around 20 combined fantasy points to running backs this season and are 20th nationally in rush D success rate. In Arizona State’s practice reports, the beat writer always lists Brown with DeCarlos Brooks with the first-team offense. Just saying.
Pivot Play – TE Chamon Metayer ($3,500) Strong performance from Metayer last week with 5-53-0 on six targets. UCF has not defended the tight end position well this season, allowing 16 fantasy points to Cincinnati’s Joe Royer and 12 fantasy points this past week to Arizona’s Sam Olson.
Best of the Rest – WR Jordyn Tyson ($4,900) Tyson was targeted 15 times against Oklahoma State, catching nine passes for 81 yards and a score. Most enticing aspect of Tyson’s fantasy value is that Arizona State simply doesn’t throw the ball to anyone else. Tyson accounts for 33% of the team’s target share and nearly 50% of the receiving touchdowns. UCF gives up a TON of fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.
Injury Notes – RB Cam Skattebo ($9,700) HC Kenny Dillingham said on Wednesday that Skattebo is still deemed “doubtful to questionable” and that remained unchanged.
Mississippi State vs. Tennessee
Point-Spread: UT -24
O/U Total: 61
Implied Score: UT 42.5 – MSU 18.5
Weather: 67 degrees / 42% rain / 4 mph winds
Mississippi State:
Top Play(s) – WR Kevin Coleman ($5,500) Coleman has been one of the absolute bright spots for Mississippi State this season after transferring in from Louisville. Two 100-yard receiving performances in the last four games, now averaging 6.3 receptions on 8.4 targets per game.
Fade – RBs. The Bulldogs have been better than anticipated running the football in 2024 with a Utah State and JUCO transfer leading the way in the backfield. And both Davon Booth and Johnnie Daniels are cheap enough to consider, but it’s a split-carry situation against a Tennessee defense that is No. 1 nationally in rush D success rate and No. 1 in EPA per run play.
Bargain Bin – TE Seydou Traore ($3,300) The one position that has had a moderate level of success against this Tennessee defense is tight end where five SEC players have scored 7 or more fantasy points vs. the Vols, scoring about 12% above their seasonal average. Traore is second on the team in targets (43), receptions (28) and routes run.
Pivot Play – QB Michael Van Buren ($5,900) MVB has arguably been the best freshman quarterback in the country since taking over the starting job from Blake Shapen, now with 20 or more fantasy points in each of the last four games. And not against scrubs either with two ranked opponents in that stretch in Texas A&M and at Georgia. This isn’t the greatest matchup, going on the road against a defense that is allowing just 11.8 FPPG to quarterbacks. We’ve doubted Van Buren previously, though, and were proven wrong.
Best of the Rest – WR Mario Craver ($3,600) Looks like the freshman was upgraded to probable this week. Notable in that WR Jordan Mosley ($3,700) had been inserted back into the starting lineup with Craver’s absence. When healthy, Craver was playing significantly more snaps over Mosley back in Week’s 7 and 8. Just something to note.
Injury Notes – n/a
Tennessee:
Top Play(s) – RB Dylan Sampson ($9,600) Best play on the slate not named Savion Williams. Mississippi State is the SEC’s worst run defense, having allowed over 300 yards on the ground twice already this season. Only hesitation is that Tennessee pulls its starters early and preserve someone like Sampson for the stretch run.
Fade – WR Chas Nimrod ($4,700) Not that the Tennessee starting receivers have been any good this season, but why is Nimrod, a backup, priced $1k more than the starters? Nimrod was targeted four times last week but has just eight receptions on the year and played just 30% of the snaps vs. Kentucky.
Bargain Bin – RB Peyton Lewis ($3,000) Desean Bishop is out, so Lewis should be the RB2 behind Sampson on Saturday night. And if Tennessee did attempt to limit Sampson’s carries, Lewis would be the beneficiary. The freshman had eight attempts for 24 yards and a score last week vs. Kentucky.
Pivot Play – QB Nico Iamaleava ($6,500) Would not be surprised one bit to see the version of Nico Iamaleava that was a Top 10 college fantasy option both this week and for the rest of the season as last Saturday appeared to be a turning of the corner of sorts. And Mississippi State is the perfect opponent to continue that momentum, allowing 27 FPPG to quarterbacks and ranked 133rd nationally in pass D success rate.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Bru McCoy will be the highest owned of the Tennessee receivers now with 11 receptions on 18 targets over the last two games. Is McCoy truly emerging as the WR1? I might look to Dont’e Thornton, Chris Brazzell or even Squirrel White who are on par with McCoy for targets yet will have significantly less ownership in DFS.
Injury Notes – RB Desean Bishop ($3,700) Confirmed out. Big role for Peyton Lewis on Saturday.
Florida State vs. Notre Dame
Point-Spread: ND -25.5
O/U Total: 42.5
Implied Score: ND 33 – FSU 8.5
Weather: 54 degrees / 6% rain / 11 mph winds
Florida State:
You think a 1-8 Florida State team has any interest in playing in low 50-degree weather, on the road, against a top 10 opponent? We don’t have a single Florida State player projected over 9 fantasy points.
Notre Dame:
Top Play(s) – RB Jeremiyah Love ($6,000) Alexa…show me a defense that has stopped tackling this season. Florida State allowed four rushing touchdowns this past week to North Carolina’s Omarion Hampton. The week prior, 230 yards on the ground allowed to Miami. Five running backs have scored at least 23 fantasy points against Florida State this season. I expect Love will at the very least come close to adding to that list.
Fade – TE Mitchell Evans ($3,500) Grasping at straws here trying to find an actual fade option when nearly every Notre Dame player is priced below $4k. Evans gets the nod here as the former top 10 fantasy tight end hasn’t fully recovered from the offseason surgery, failing to score a touchdown so far this season. Not to knock the player, but how in the world is Evans a semifinalist for the Mackey Award with just 133 receiving yards?
Bargain Bin – WR Beaux Collins ($3,500) Team leader in targets (43), receptions (28), receiving yards and routes run. Collins’ 21% target share leads the team, yet also speaks to the point that there’s not a need to roster any Notre Dame pass-catcher as the Irish spread it around.
Pivot Play – WR Jordan Faison ($3,100) A midseason injury derailed Faison’s year, but he looked healthy against Navy, catching four passes for 52 yards on five targets, playing the second most snaps of any ND receiver behind only Kris Mitchell.
Best of the Rest – QB Riley Leonard ($8,700) Remember back in September when there were rumblings of a possible benching for Riley Leonard? All he’s done since then is score 24 or more fantasy points in six straight games and is now QB14 in college fantasy football. That said, the matchup isn’t great. The last time Florida State allowed an opposing QB to score more than 20 fantasy points was back on October 5th and are giving up just 17.8 FPPG to quarterbacks for the entire season.
Injury Notes – n/a
Nevada vs. Boise State
Point-Spread: BSU -23.5
O/U Total: 60.5
Implied Score: BSU 42 – Nev 18.5
Weather: 47 degrees / 41% rain / 4 mph winds
Nevada:
Top Play(s) – WR Jaden Smith ($5,100) or WR Cortez Braham ($4,500) Boise State allows the fourth most fantasy points in the country to opposing wide receivers at almost 51 fantasy points per game. Smith and Braham almost never leave the field for the Wolfpack, accounting for 57% of the team’s target share. Braham hit 100+ receiving yards last week vs. Colorado State, while Smith has multiple 11-target performances in the previous three games. Having one or the other in a lineup is a strong option.
Fade – RB Savion Red ($5,500) Red’s production has been very hit or miss this season, and the last two weeks have been very poor as he was injured in the Hawaii matchup, and then averaged less than two yards per attempt against a good Colorado State defense. Boise State’s run defense is No. 2 in the MWC in yards allowed on the ground and allow just 15.4 FPPG to running backs.
Bargain Bin – WR Marcus Bellon ($4,300) Bellon, like Smith and Braham, also does not leave the field very often on offense and is tied with Smith with the team lead in touchdowns (4). The former UTEP transfer had 111 yards and two scores just two weeks ago vs. Hawaii.
Pivot Play – QB Brendon Lewis ($7,800) Boise State will give up some fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, allowing 22.6 FPPG, but the concern for this game is the Broncos’ pass rush where the two starting defensive ends have combined for 16 sacks in 2024. Just once this season has Lewis failed to score 20 fantasy points in a game this season, and continues to get the job done on the ground with six rushing TDs in the last four games.
Best of the Rest – n/a. One Nevada WR in your lineup is the best option.
Injury Notes – n/a
Boise State:
Top Play(s) – RB Ashton Jeanty ($12,900) Pricing becomes the issue again here for Jeanty as he’s over $3k more than the rest of the field. And looking at projections, there’s just a two-point difference between Jeanty and Tennessee’s Dylan Sampson who is significantly cheaper, and there’s no realistic way to build a lineup with both in there. The good news is that likely in GPPs, most will have this line of thinking to fade Jeanty which will lead to lesser ownership. Nevada’s run defense has fallen off the last two games, allowing over 400 combined rushing yards and seven touchdowns to Hawaii and Colorado State.
Fade – RB Jambres Dubar ($3,800) or RB Sire Gaines ($5,100) Gaines has not played since Week 4 due to injury, and it is unlikely we’ll find any injury reporting on Saturday night. Dubar does not have an injury tag yet hasn’t played a single snap since Week 6. Even in a 30-point blowout last week, Jeanty had 30+ rushing attempts and 67% of the backfield market share.
Bargain Bin – WR Latrell Caples ($3,900) Caples has always been one of those players that is unpredictable as to when he’ll have a big week or not. Scored just 6 fantasy points combined between Week’s 4-9, then proceeded to have 90 yards and three scores last Friday vs. San Diego State. Caples has played over 70% of the team’s offensive snaps over the last three games.
Pivot Play – QB Maddux Madsen ($7,000) Conventional wisdom would suggest that Nevada saw what San Diego State did in loading the box, and the Wolfpack won’t attempt to do the same as they saw Madsen throw for 307 yards and four touchdowns last week. Or Nevada could still choose Madsen to be the lesser of two evils and deploy the same strategy. The Wolfpack are 110th in EPA per pass play defensively so this is a favorable matchup for Madsen.
Best of the Rest – TE Matt Lauter ($3,800) The junior tight end is second on the team in targets (37), receptions (26) and tied atop the leaderboard in touchdowns (4). Collectively, Nevada hasn’t given up a ton of fantasy points to tight ends this season, but did allow 30+ to SMU’s RJ Maryland back in Week 0. WR Cam Camper ($5,500) remains the team leader in all receiving categories, while WR Prince Strachan ($4,000) has solidified himself as the WR3 over the last month, with 12 of his 15 receptions coming in the last four games.
Injury Notes – n/a
Virginia vs. Pittsburgh
Point-Spread: Pitt -7.5
O/U Total: 57.5
Implied Score: Pitt 32.5 – UVA 25
Weather: 52 degrees / 25% rain / 5 mph winds
Virginia:
Top Play(s) – WR Malachi Fields ($6,500) Fields is not having the dominant season that Malik Washington had a year ago, but is still a relevant fantasy option at receiver, accounting for 28% of UVA’s target share with a team high four touchdowns. As we’ve seen several times this season, if Virginia gets competent QB play, Fields can be effective, with multiple 100-yard receiving performances.
Fade – QB Anthony Colandrea ($6,100) Tony Elliott gave the ole vote of confidence over the bye week, saying that Colandrea is their guy, but backup Tony Muskett has seen some extended playing time over the last two games. Cannot risk a QB benching on this slate with several good options to choose from at the position. Pitt is only allowing 15.8 FPPG to opposing QBs this season.
Bargain Bin – TE Tyler Neville ($3,200) Neville is second on the team in targets (37) and receptions (26), with 14 catches in the last three games alone. Pitt cannot defend the tight end position this season, allowing 15.6 FPPG to the position this season. Tight ends are averaging 38% more fantasy points than their seasonal averages when facing Pitt with five tight ends scoring 13 or more fantasy points in their respective matchups with the Panthers. That would be third most in the country, so Neville is one of our top spend down options.
Pivot Play – RB Xavier Brown ($3,200) over RB Kobe Pace ($4,000) Pace has been fine this season, but it’s clear which running back is the more talented of the two. Brown is averaging over two yards per carry more this season than his counterpart and a higher breakaway % rate on Pro Football Focus. Elliott commented this week how they need to get Brown more touches. Pitt’s run defense is solid – 22nd in success rate – so not need to roster either player.
Best of the Rest – WR Chris Tyree ($3,400) or WR Andre Greene Jr. ($3,800) Doesn’t sound like we’ll see Trell Harris back in the lineup this week, so we’re basing this on the last game played were Tyree and Greene played 69% of the team’s offensive snaps, second and third most among UVA wide receivers beyond Fields. Neither player has been effective this season.
Injury Notes – WR Trell Harris ($5,000) Still a few weeks away per Elliott.
Pittsburgh:
Top Play(s) – RB Desmond Reid ($9,700) The entire Pitt offense has stalled in recent weeks, notably Reid who has less than 60 yards rushing in four of his last five games. This is a steep price to pay, but Reid is a dual threat coming out of the backfield that increases his value, ranked second on the team in targets and receptions. Virginia’s run defense is below average, ranked 105th in success rate, with four ACC running backs having scored 23 or more fantasy points against the Hoos.
Fade – QB Eli Holstein ($8,800) This fade selection could combust, but it’s been three straight down weeks for Holstein now and, just like we discussed with Colandrea above, Pitt went to the backup last week in the second half with Nate Yarnell who is capable. Pat Narduzzi didn’t necessarily give Holstein a vote of confidence either. Decent projection, but another situation where we cannot risk a benching.
Bargain Bin – WR Raphael Williams Jr. ($3,900) or WR Kenny Johnson ($3,800) First and fourth, respectively, on the team in routes run the season, both averaging around five targets per game with a combined eight receiving touchdowns. Both get a mention as Virginia has been absolutely cooked this season by opposing wide receivers, allowing around 48 collective fantasy points per game to WR groups.
Pivot Play – TE Gavin Bartholomew ($3,100) Third on the team in routes run and fifth in targets, averaging just three catches per game. We expected more out of Bartholomew this season, but a chance at redemption this week where UVA is allowing 13.1 FPPG to tight ends. Not as much as Pitt does, but that’s a high number.
Best of the Rest – WR Konata Mumpfield ($5,200) Team leader in targets (51), receptions (33) and second in routes run. For all the same reasons we mentioned about Williams and Johnson above apply to Mumpfield, as five receivers have scored at least 18 fantasy points vs. Virginia in 2024.
Injury Notes – n/a
Washington vs. Penn State
Point-Spread: PSU -13.5
O/U Total: 46.5
Implied Score: PSU 30 – UW 16.5
Weather: 47 degrees / 15% rain / 2 mph winds
Washington:
Top Play(s) – WR Denzel Boston ($6,700) Boston hasn’t found the end-zone in two games, but was unstoppable last week against USC, catching nine passes on 13 targets. Penn State does not give up many fantasy points to opposing receivers – just one has scored more than 20 fantasy points all year against them – so we would not advise heavy exposure here. Boston has 36% of the team’s target share over the last two weeks alone, which is a really strong number.
Fade – QB Will Rogers ($5,200) Second lowest projection of any QB on the slate and faces a Penn State defense that is allowing just 9.9 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. Who’d have thought that entering Week 11 that Bowling Green’s Connor Bazelak would be the quarterback to score the most fantasy points all year vs. the Nittany Lions (16 fpts).
Bargain Bin – TE Keleki Latu ($3,100) Washington’s TE1 has played over 90% of the team’s offensive snaps in all but one game this season, ranked third in targets (38) and receptions (31). Just once has Penn State allowed a tight end to score more than eight fantasy points against them all year – Harold Fannin to no one’s surprise. WR Jeremiah Hunter ($3,100) is cheap for a receiver that plays over 60% of the team’s offensive snaps but is averaging just 3.8 targets per contest.
Pivot Play – RB Jonah Coleman ($6,200) Unlikely to roster Coleman this week, but he continues to outperform his preseason expectations, rushing for 80 or more yards in 7-of-9 games this season and should hit the 1,000-yard mark by the end of the year. Just once has a running back surpassed 20 fantasy points vs. Penn State this season, and the Nittany Lions are 8th nationally in rush D success rate. Not the ideal matchup.
Best of the Rest – WR Giles Jackson ($5,200) Second on the team in targets (68), first in receptions (55), second in yards (597) and second in routes run behind only Boston. Slot receivers like Jackson have found mild success vs. Penn State this season – UCLA’s Logan Loya (17.7 fpts) and Wisconsin’s Will Pauling (16.4 fpts).
Injury Notes – n/a
Penn State:
Top Play(s) – TE Tyler Warren ($6,800) For what seemed like the entire broadcast last week, the announcers were critical of Penn State not getting the ball to their best offensive player in Warren. That came to a head on the final offensive drive where Warren got the Nittany Lions down to first and goal with a 30-yard run and didn’t touch the ball after that. Guarantee that James Franklin heard that chatter and will make a point to get Warren the rock on Saturday. As with other players on DFS slates, we love the multiple pathways for Warren to accumulate fantasy points, as a receiver, runner and potentially passing the ball as he’s done at times this season.
Fade – QB Drew Allar ($6,500) Washington’s secondary is legit, ranked 4th in pass D success rate and allowing just 12.7 FPPG. Allar was abysmal last week vs. Ohio State (not shocking) and we’ll likely see some Beau Pribula on Saturday too.
Bargain Bin – WR Harrison Wallace ($3,800) or WR Liam Clifford ($3,400) Penn State’s top two receivers, both playing around 60% of the team’s snaps. Would limit any lineup to just one Penn State receiver (preferably none) as the Nittany Lions’ most effective pass catchers in 2024 have been Tyler Warren and Nick Singleton.
Pivot Play – RBs. The Penn State running game has stalled of late. Kaytron Allen is averaging just 4.1 yards per carry over the last four games, while Singleton has just 90 rushing yards in the last three weeks. As a nod to Singleton, at least he’s been effective in the passing game with 12 receptions and two touchdowns in that three-game stretch. Washington’s run defense is not good, ranked 79th in success rate and 14th in the B1G, allowing 151 yards per game on the ground. Chance for the Nittany Lions to re-establish their identity up front.
Best of the Rest – n/a. Warren or one of the Penn State running backs is the way.
Injury Notes – n/a
