Virginia vs. Louisville
Point-Spread: UL -20.5
O/U Total: 50.5
Implied Score: UL 35.5 – UVA 15
Weather: 58 degrees / 39% rain / 9 mph winds
Virginia:
Top Play(s) – WR Malik Washington ($7,300) The numbers speak for themselves as Malik Washington has arguably been the single most consistent receiver in all of college fantasy. The former Northwestern transfer trails only FAU’s LaJohntay Wester and LSU’s Malik Nabers for total fantasy points scored by a wideout this season, averaging 24.4 FPPG with 100+ receiving yards in seven of nine games played. Matchup is brutal against Louisville on the road as we’ve seen over the last month and a half, but Washington’s consistency makes him tough to fade.
Fade – QBs. Interesting stat about the Louisville pass defense. On the road, the Cardinals allow 231 passing yards per game and a 134.5 QB rating. At home, those numbers drop significantly to 168.8 passing yards per game and a 99.6 QB rating. Sounds as though UVA will turn the keys back over to Anthony Colandrea after Tony Muskett was knocked out of the game last week and is considered day to day. Bad matchup and we don’t know who the QB will be.
Bargain Bin – WR JR Wilson ($4,300) We’ve hammered home the point about the top-heavy target share for Virginia this season with Washington and WR Malachi Fields ($6,500) at 68%. And while that stat still holds true, we’ve seen a subtle change lately with UVA featuring 11 personnel – one RB, one TE and three WRs. Wilson has been the beneficiary the last two games, particularly last week against Georgia Tech, playing 71 of the 74 offensive snaps.
Pivot Play – RB Kobe Pace ($4,200) Virginia won’t be able to run on Louisville, so Pace won’t offer much as a runner. That said, the former Clemson transfer is third in targets (17), receptions (14) and second in receiving touchdowns (3). A secondary pivot strategy is to stack Malik Washington and Malachi Fields together (without the UVA starting QB) because of the aforementioned target share. There are major uncertainties at the WR position for the other three teams on this slate.
Best of the Rest – RB Perris Jones ($4,900) Another fade spot. UVA uses three of them, neither of which have been very productive running the football. In total, Louisville allows just 19.2 FPPG to opposing backfields. Split that potentially three ways is not a GPP winning option. Similar to the passing numbers, Louisville is better defensively at home, allowing 25 fewer yards per game on the ground vs. on the road. Pace gets some consideration as he’s the better pass-catcher of the two at a cheaper price. Jones has just six targets on the year.
Injury Notes – RB Mike Hollins ($4,000) Hollins is questionable with a neck injury but was listed on the team’s depth chart this week.
Louisville:
Top Play(s) – RB Jawhar Jordan ($7,100) We’ll see what we can uncover headed into Thursday as Jordan is listed as probable with the lingering hamstring issue. Should this game get out of hand, we could see something similar to last week against Virginia Tech as Jordan started but played just 22 of 47 offensive snaps in the victory. Matchup is obviously very strong as UVA is allowing the 10th most fantasy points to running backs in college football and are 125th in rush D success rate.
Fade – WR Ahmari Huggins-Bruce ($4,400) Playing time continues to diminish for AHB as the season goes along and was not targeted a single time last week against Virginia Tech. Kevin Coleman and Jadon Thompson both saw playing time in the slot last week, running more routes than Huggins-Bruce.
Bargain Bin – WR Jadon Thompson ($4,200) Thompson gets the starting nod if Jamari Thrash is out. The former Cincinnati transfer led Louisville last week in routes run with 49 yards and a touchdown. Thrash plays and Thompson is removed from our player pool.
Pivot Play – RB Isaac Guerendo ($6,000) Swing and a miss thinking Maurice Turner would be the second man up behind Jordan, as it was the former Wisconsin transfer who wound up rushing for 146 yards and three scores. Multiple avenues you can go with this, and it is tough to know which is best as it stands on Wednesday writing this. Stack Jordan and Guerendo, thinking this plays out like last week. Or if the Vegas line moves in favor of UVA, perhaps just stick with Jordan in thinking he gets a full workload if this game ends up being competitive.
Best of the Rest – QB Jack Plummer ($8,800) I bet the under at 220.5 passing yards for Plummer this week, so I’m currently assuming this plays out like the Virginia Tech matchup with the Louisville QB1 threw just 12 passes. UVA allows 21 FPPG this season to opposing quarterbacks and are 62nd in pass D success rate. So, this is a good matchup, just a matter of how much Plummer is needed, and potentially playing without his best playmaker at WR. Not doing a deep dive on snap counts and routes run for the remaining Louisville receivers, but the target share is so dispersed amongst the group outside of Jamari Thrash that I’d look to the more expensive options of WR Chris Bell ($4,900) or WR Kevin Coleman ($4,500) who has taken AHB’s starting spot in the slot. Bell is the most physically gifted WR on the team, not named Jamari Thrash.
Injury Notes – WR Jamari Thrash ($7,200) Thrash is the unlikelier of the two superstars to play on Thursday, dealing with a wrist injury. Did not get a chance to watch the game, but don’t believe Thrash was even suited up for the contest with Virginia Tech, as I saw him an a pregame video helping his fellow receivers in warmup drills in street clothes.
Southern Mississippi vs. Louisiana
Point-Spread: ULL -10.5
O/U Total: 52.5
Implied Score: ULL 31.5 – USM 21
Weather: 72 degrees / 13% rain / 7 mph winds
Southern Miss:
Top Play(s) – RB Frank Gore Jr. ($6,500) Because of the uncertain status with Jawhar Jordan, I do think Gore Jr. is the player you should have the most exposure to on the slate. 20 or more carries in five of the last six games as the coaching staff held up their end following the Tulane matchup in Week 3 when they promised to get their best player more touches. As for the matchup, nothing stands out about the Louisiana defense to where you should be overly concerned about 100% exposure to Gore Jr., allowing 17 FPPG to opposing RB1s.
Fade – QB Billy Wiles ($6,700) Tough to suggest completely fading a quarterback on a two-game slate in a game where the team is a 10-point underdog. But Wiles has failed to score more than 13 fantasy points in four straight games and is now coming off the field for 25% of snaps as USM is incorporating dual-threat backup QB Ethan Crawford ($4,500). Crawford had 10 rushing attempts last week against Louisiana-Monroe and was working with the first-team offense in red-zone situations during practice this week according to a 247Sports report.
Bargain Bin – TE Cole Cavallo ($3,500) Direct quote from assistant coach Jordy Joseph on Cavallo – “Cole Cavallo has been playing exceptionally well. We ask them to do a lot. We are a tight end-based offense. All of those things go together to get the run game going.” Season-high 43 receiving yards last week against ULM, playing 72 of the 76 offensive snaps.
Pivot Play – See above on Crawford. Major risk, but allows you to jam in all of the high-priced skill position players, and it’s not as though this slate is littered with great QB options. Practice report indicates Crawford will continue to get red-zone work.
Best of the Rest – WRs. The trio of Latreal Jones, Jakarius Caston, and Tiaquelin Mims are separate by just seven targets and have essentially run the same amount of routes in 2023. Caston holds the slight edge above the rest with a team-high 58 targets, four touchdowns and a 17.0 YPC average. Highest aDOT amongst the trio as well (14.6). His 46.7% catch rate is uninspiring. Louisiana has allowed the 28th most fantasy points in college football to wide receivers, so someone here should be profitable. Just a guessing game as to which.
Injury Notes – n/a. Southern Miss is fully healthy on the offensive side of the ball and gets multiple starters back on defense.
Louisville:
Top Play(s) – RB Jacob Kibodi ($4,600) Down week for Kibodi against Arkansas State with just 26 yards and six attempts, but figure game flow had much to do with that as Louisiana was in a trailing position after losing their starting QB to injury. Season-highs for Kibodi the week prior against a good South Alabama defense with 116 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries. That’s now six rushing TDs in the last seven games. Strong matchup again for Kibodi and the Louisiana rushing attack as USM allows the 8th most fantasy points to running backs in college football.
Fade – RB Zylan Perry ($3,900) I remember reading quotes about how much the coaching staff likes Perry, a 5-foot-10 redshirt freshman, but fumbling issues have essentially removed him from the core rotation at RB. 20 carries in the first three weeks. 17 in the next five games. With a healthy Washington and Kibodi, Perry is a distant RB3.
Bargain Bin – TE Terrance Carter ($3,500) Really have not followed Louisiana football all that closely this season if we’re being honest as they don’t have any fantasy relevant pieces outside of Zeon Chriss (injured) and Jacob Kibodi. Carter is the cheapest potential option that has been on a hot streak of sorts lately with 12 of his 18 receptions coming in the last three games. Three tight ends have scored double-digit fantasy points against USM this season.
Pivot Play – RB Dre’lyn Washington ($4,100) Kibodi has undoubtedly been ULL’s best back this season, but Washington did out-carry him 10-6 last week and was the team’s RB1 coming into the season. Strong numbers in his own right, averaging 5.6 yards per carry on 63 attempts.
Best of the Rest – QB Chandler Fields ($6,800) Starting experience? Yes. Physically gifted? Compared to me, a guy who sits at a computer typing up DFS slates, sure. But Fields is 5-foot-10, with a below-average arm, and lacks mobility. With that said, this is a strong matchup for any quarterback, facing a Southern Miss secondary that gives up the 18th most fantasy points in college football to quarterbacks and are 108th in pass D success rate. WR and TE usage for Louisiana is the same under HC Michael Desormeaux as it was under Billy Napier – spread out. WR Robert Williams ($5,600) leads the team in targets, but accounts for just 16% of the share as six different receivers and multiple tight ends are consistently part of the rotation. TE Neal Johnson ($3,300) leads the Cajuns in routes run in 2023, while WR Peter LeBlanc ($5,100), who seemingly has been in school for a decade now, is the team leader in touchdowns (4) and YPC (16.3).
Injury Notes – Ben Wooldridge and Zeon Chriss already confirmed out.
North Texas vs. SMU
Point-Spread: SMU -16.5
O/U Total: 67.5
Implied Score: SMU 42 – UNT 25.5
Weather: 54 degrees / 16% rain / 10 mph winds
North Texas:
Top Play(s) – QB Chandler Rogers ($8,200) One of the best fantasy quarterbacks in college football, ranking 20th in the sport in points scored, with a season-low of 24.9 fantasy points in games in which Rogers has started in 2023. SMU does grade out well against the pass, allowing just 14.1 FPPG to quarterbacks, but Rogers has been too good and too consistent to fade here.
Fade – n/a. Everyone for UNT is a potential option.
Bargain Bin – WR Blair Conwright ($3,700) Total recency bias here with listing Conwright as he saw the biggest boost with Roderic Burns out of the lineup against UTSA, finishing with five receptions and a touchdown on eight targets. Fades back into the six-man rotation at receiver if Burns does play on Friday where North Texas will play as many as four different slot receivers.
Pivot Play – RB Oscar Adaway ($5,100) Best course of action might be to fade the UNT backfield as it’s a 55-45 split going against an SMU defense allowing just 12.4 FPPG to RB1s and ranked 9th nationally in rush D success rate. While RB Ayo Adeyi ($5,900) has been the better fantasy producer of the two running backs, the fact remains that this is still a 55-45 split with Adaway being involved more as a pass-catcher. Ownership will strongly be in favor of Adeyi.
Best of the Rest – WR Ja’Mori Maclin ($5,800) Think you have to eat chalk at the WR position on this slate with Maclin and Ricky White, as the former has over 40% of North Texas’ receiving touchdowns (11) this season and the team leader in every receiving category. Maclin’s 16.5 aDOT and 17.5 YPC numbers are some of the highest in the country and a touchdown threat at any moment. As for the rest of the North Texas receivers, WR Trey Cleveland ($3,900), the former Texas Tech transfer, will start in place of Damon Ward should he be unavailable. True freshman Landon Sides ($3,300) has a promising future ahead with an 83.3% catch rate on 24 targets. He’s one of the four slot receivers along with WR Jordan Smart ($3,100). Really not necessary to select anyone outside of Maclin.
Injury Notes – WRs Damon Ward and Roderic Burns are considered day-to-day after leaving last week’s contest due to injury.
SMU:
Top Play(s) – RB Jaylan Knighton ($4,800) This is emphasized even further if Preston Stone does not start on Friday. North Texas has allowed the single most fantasy points to running backs in all of college football. I believe Knighton remains the starter here, but he did fumble last week, leading to RB LJ Johnson ($4,600) holding a 15-11 carry advantage against Rice. Pro Football Focus also designates Johnson as the “starter” though I cannot confirm that. SMU spreads the ball around so much that you can feasibly start both players against this horrid run D. Not shockingly, North Texas allows 11.9 FPPG to RB2s this season, also the highest mark in the country.
Fade – n/a. Everyone is a potential option because of pricing. SMU rolls out four running backs and a billion different receivers each week.
Bargain Bin – WR Jordan Hudson ($3,900) The former TCU transfer should get the biggest bump I believe with Jordan Kerley now out for the season. Three or more targets in all but one game this season and the most physically gifted of the SMU receivers. Three touchdowns in the last three games. Four of the top five highest scoring receivers this season to face North Texas have played on the boundary, which Hudson does.
Pivot Play – TE RJ Maryland ($5,000) Instead of racking your brain with the impossible task of guessing the correct SMU receiver that week, how about I offer you a 6-foot-5, 230-pound sophomore tight end that will probably be at a P5 school a year from now. Four touchdowns in the last five games.
Best of the Rest – SMU WRs. WR1s under HC Rhett Lashlee the last few seasons have been so good to us – Rashee Rice, Charleston Rambo, etc. Hence why we had Jordan Kerley so highly ranked in the preseason. This season hasn’t panned out at all the way we expected with as many as eight different receivers seeing relatively equal playing time. Rashee Rice had close to 35% target share last year. SMU’s leading receiver this year has 14%. I’ve long since stopped trying to dissect this group as it’s a fruitless endeavor.
Injury Notes – QB Preston Stone ($8,200) The big news of the entire weekend for both CFB DFS and College Fantasy as we await the Preston Stone news after leaving the contest against Rice last week with a concussion. As of Wednesday, we have no confirmation either way and will be a game-time decision. North Texas only allows 17.4 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks and just one QB has scored over 20 fantasy points against the Mean Green, but much of that is to do with how porous they are at defending the run. WR Jordan Kerley ($3,400) is out for the season, removing one of the seven potential WR options for the Mustangs.
Wyoming vs. UNLV
Point-Spread: UNLV -5.5
O/U Total: 51.5
Implied Score: UNLV 28.5 – Wyo 23
Weather: Dome
Wyoming:
Top Play(s) – RB Harrison Waylee ($7,200) 95% exposure as the only workhorse RB on the slate. The 5% accounts for the countless times that Waylee has been injured not only this season but extending back to his days at Northern Illinois. UNLV is a middle of the road run defense for G5 standards, allowing 15.9 FPPG to opposing RB1s and 79th in rush D success rate. The Rebels should have the advantage in the trenches, surprisingly. Call that the Barry Odom effect.
Fade – RB Sam Scott ($4,200) See above. Scott did find the end-zone but Waylee, as long as he’s healthy, dominates the backfield market share at 42%.
Bargain Bin – WR Ayir Asante ($3,600) Our highest projected Wyoming receiver as he’s scored two touchdowns in the last three games but should be noted Asante is not a starter now that WR Alex Brown ($3,400) is back and healthy. Asante did run more routes against Colorado State last week and held a 4-2 target advantage.
Pivot Play – QB Andrew Peasley ($7,300) Probably the fourth QB option on the slate, but if there is a weakness to the UNLV defense, it would be in the secondary. The Rebels are 123rd in EPA per pass play defensively, allowing 20.8 FPPG to quarterbacks. If you allow 35 fantasy points to a Nevada quarterback (Brendon Lewis), that’s a problem. Lewis ran for 115 yards and a touchdown against UNLV in his respective matchup, and Peasley is a very capable runner at quarterback.
Best of the Rest – WR Wyatt Wieland ($4,700) Team leader in receptions (29), targets (46) and routes run. UNLV has allowed the 10th most fantasy points in the country to opposing wide receivers. TE Treyton Welch ($3,900) is tied for second on the team in targets (29), second in receptions (22) and routes run. Tight ends have not fared as well against the Rebels, averaging just 5.4 FPPG.
Injury Notes – n/a
UNLV:
Top Play(s) – WR Ricky White ($6,200) There is a top tier at receiver with White and Ja’Mori Maclin, and then a massive drop-off after that. I’ll start my lineup builds with those two and fill in the rest. And White is starting to find his connection with his freshman quarterback with two receiving touchdowns in three of the last four games. Five different receivers have scored 22 or more fantasy points against Wyoming this season.
Fade – RB Courtney Reese ($4,500) Running backs rotate frequently in the “Go-Go offense” under OC Brennan Marion, but there’s a distinguishable gap between RB4 Courtney Reese and the other three running backs on the roster. Reese is fourth in rushing attempts and listed as RB4 on the game week depth chart.
Bargain Bin – WR Senika McKie ($3,700) WR2 for UNLV is an interesting dynamic this season. McKie holds a significant advantage over slot man Jacob de Jesus ($3,600) in routes run this season and has played over 80% of the offensive snaps in the last three games. Meanwhile, de Jesus is second on the team in targets and has 20 more receptions than McKie yet has essentially played just 50% of snaps in the last few weeks, splitting reps with Dom Gicinto. I’ll always lean towards the more productive player in these situations which is decidedly de Jesus.
Pivot Play – QB Jayden Maiava ($7,100) The true freshman has been outstanding for the Rebels, completing 65% of his passes with 10 touchdowns and four interceptions, coming off his best performance of the season with three scores against New Mexico. Just two quarterbacks have scored 20 or more fantasy points against the Cowboys this season, though Wyoming does rank 102nd in pass D success rate so the freshman QB shouldn’t be overwhelmed.
Best of the Rest – RBs. Yet another unpredictable situation on this slate, maybe more convoluted than the SMU or North Texas receivers. When carries are split like we see here between Vincent Davis, Donavyn Lester, and Jai’Den Thomas, I’ll look at three factors. (1) Davis is the hot hand, rushing for 64 yards and two scores last week against New Mexico. (2) Davis also holds a 17-16 advantage over Thomas this season in red zone carries. (3) Thomas has a slight 8-5 advantage in targets over Davis. All that to say I slightly prefer the Pittsburgh transfer Davis over the rest.
Injury Notes – n/a
