Tulsa vs. Memphis
Point-Spread: Mem -7.5
O/U Total: 62.5
Implied Score: Mem 35 – Tulsa 27.5
Weather: 63 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
Tulsa:
Top Play(s) – WR Keylon Stokes ($7,500) Both fanbases and beat writers have essentially turned their attention to basketball at this point in the year, so information is tough to come by. Curious to see what kind of energy level Tulsa comes out with Thursday as their season is on the brink, needing to win the final three games for a bowl berth. Exact same scenario they were in last year and won three straight so maybe the motivation will still be there. Stokes is downgraded if Davis Brin sits Thursday, but the backup (more on that below) has shown enough to where the senior WR is the top option on the slate. 9.2 targets per game, and the team leader in receptions, routes run and yards per route run (2.98).
Fade – WR Malachai Jones ($4,600) Whereas we saw all four Tulsa receivers getting equal playing time to start the year, Jones has fallen off the last two weeks, playing just a third of the offensive snaps. First five games – 36 targets. Last four games – 10 targets.
Bargain Bin – QB Braylon Braxton ($5,700) The least expensive of the available QB options and I do think he’s playable in this two-gamer as long as we get word that Brin is out. Has completed less than 55% of his passes the last two games, but has four total touchdowns, zero turnovers and 18 rushing attempts in that span. Braxton has shown enough in his appearances this year, including throwing a touchdown at Ole Miss in Week 4, that he can be an option. Memphis is 113th in pass play success rate and allowing 29.3 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks.
Injury Notes – QB Davis Brin ($6,200) Questionable, game-time decision with a shoulder injury. Did not play last week.
Memphis:
Top Play(s) – QB Seth Henigan ($7,400) Top QB option on the slate and I don’t think we can pivot away from him in this spot, though the argument could certainly be made. The Tulsa secondary has been good this year, ranking 18th in pass play success rate, allowing just 153 yards per game over the last six weeks. Now those QBs have consisted of Ben Bryant, EJ Warner and whomever starts at Jacksonville State and Navy these days, but impressive, nonetheless. Rushing QBs have given Tulsa the most fits this year, and Henigan has already surpassed last year’s totals with 289 yards and four TDs on 111 carries. Most important note here – you can play Henigan naked as we’ll discuss below.
Fade – RB Asa Martin ($5,900) This is essentially inclusive of all three Memphis running backs, not only in this matchup, but for the season as it’s been a two or three-way split for much of the year. But absolutely fade the most expensive here in Martin who had just five attempts last week vs. UCF. Tulsa can be had on the ground, ranking 124th in success rate and 19.7 FPPG to opposing RB1s, so I don’t mind if you want to toss in Brandon Thomas ($4,900) or Jeyvon Ducker ($3,600) in a lineup with Memphis being a touchdown favorite. Just know what to expect with the carry distribution. FWIW – Martin does add value as a pass-catcher with 10 targets in the last two games alone.
Bargain Bin – WR Joe Scates ($4,300) The Iowa State transfer paid off on the main slate last week at his min-pricing, posting 4-38-1 on five targets. We’ve really avoided Memphis pass-catchers in 2022 with the WR1 only accounting for 17% target share on the year. A promising sign last week against UCF that we saw only six players targeted. It appears we saw smaller rotations which might yield better results than we’ve seen in 2022. That puts guys like Eddie Lewis, Gabriel Rogers and Javon Ivory in play where we wouldn’t have even considered them two weeks ago.
Injury Notes – n/a. None that I’m aware of.
Georgia Southern vs. Louisiana
Point-Spread: UL -3.5
O/U Total: 59.5
Implied Score: UL 31.5 – GSU 28
Weather: 65 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Georgia Southern:
Top Play(s) – RB Jalen White ($4,500) Swing and a miss by the DraftKings pricing software as Jalen White is listed at $4.5k despite being the starter over Gerald Green – unless there is some mysterious injury that we do not know about. Overall numbers for the Louisiana rush defense are ok, allowing 16.5 FPPG to opposing RB1s and 77th in rush play success rate. But this price for White is too cheap not to play for a running back that leads the team in carries, yards and touchdowns. White also has a 25-18 advantage over Green in red-zone attempts in 2022.
Fade – n/a. I do think everyone on the Georgia Southern side is appropriately priced to where there isn’t a player we need to eliminate from the player pool. QB Kyle Vantrease ($7,100) will be the interesting debate. Louisiana is 22nd in pass play success rate defensively and allowing just 18.3 FPPG to opposing QB1s on the year. That said, game script should work in Vantrease’s favor as an underdog…not that he needs help with that as the Georgia Southern QB is third in the country in pass attempts per game.
Bargain Bin – WR Marcus Sanders Jr. ($3,000) Desperation play in the event that Jeremy Singleton does not play. The 6-foot-3 freshman played 80% of the offensive snaps in Week 10, and has had two games of five targets in the last three weeks. Would rather target the top pass-catching options here in Derwin Burgess Jr. and Khaleb Hood.
Injury Notes – WR Amare Jones ($4,800) Jones was announced out for the season two weeks ago, yet doesn’t have the injury tag on DK. Maybe a spot to take advantage? WR Jeremy Singleton ($3,000) only played 15 snaps vs. South Alabama and is considered day to day per HC Clay Helton.
Louisiana:
Top Play(s) – RB Chris Smith ($6,000) QB Ben Wooldridge will be the popular play among Louisiana options, but I think this is a great pivot play to Smith at running back who saw a season high in carries (18) in the loss to a very good defensive team in Troy last week. Georgia Southern has allowed the fourth most FPPG to opposing RB1s in the country this season (24.8). HC Michael Desomeaux was also asked by the media this week about possibly playing two quarterbacks with former starter Chandler Fields now healthy. I think this is a strong pivot to Smith and not play a Louisiana QB.
Fade – WRs not named Michael Jefferson ($6,000) Someone will throw in a random Louisiana WR, get lucky and probably win a big GPP because of it. But that doesn’t mean it’s a good play. Jefferson leads the Cajuns in targets (63), receptions (36), touchdowns (5), yards per route run (2.79), aDOT (16.2) and routes run. Don’t normally associate Louisiana with having alpha receivers but Jefferson fits the bill. WR2 Errol Rogers accounts for just 11% of the target share. Jefferson is the only Louisiana pass-catcher worth his salt.
Bargain Bin – WR Peter LeBlanc ($3,400) Smith, Wooldridge and Jefferson should be your only options, but we’ll put out a flier here in LeBlanc who’s had some big performances in past years. Fourth on the team in targets (23) and has yet to find the end-zone but is second in routes run and plays as many offensive snaps as Jefferson does. He’s on the field a ton, just hasn’t produced much.
Injury Notes – n/a. None that I’m aware of.
East Carolina vs. Cincinnati
Point-Spread: Cin -5.5
O/U Total: 52.5
Implied Score: Cin 29 – ECU 23.5
Weather: 47 degrees / 10% rain / 14 mph winds
East Carolina:
Top Play(s) – RB Keaton Mitchell ($6,600) Aren’t many weaknesses on this Cincinnati defense despite losing seven starters from last year’s top 10 group. If you had to spotlight one flawed area, it would be the run defense where Cincinnati has allowed 10 of the 13 rushing touchdowns for the season to AAC opponents. Bodes well for Mitchell who is no longer splitting carries since the Rahjai Harris injury, averaging 22 attempts per over the last three weeks with six rushing scores.
Fade – QB Holton Ahlers ($5,400) Simply put, this is a three-quarterback slate. You’re targeting Caleb Williams and Jake Haener, and maybe spending down to the cheap UNLV quarterback. That’s it. Cincinnati defense is 19th in pass play success rate and allowing just 19.1 FPPG to opposing QBs this season. Amazing when you consider what they lost last season in Sauce Gardner and Coby Bryant.
Bargain Bin – WR Jsi Hatfield ($3,700) Production really hasn’t been there with two receptions in each of the last three games. But his playing time has increased substantially since coming back from injury. Season-high 97% of offensive snaps against BYU in Week 10, and that should remain constant if CJ Johnson is out this week.
Pivot Play – WR Isaiah Winstead ($6,700) Won’t get much attention against one of the best secondaries in the G5, but Winstead is still the far-and-away leader for ECU with 91 targets, 64 receptions and 2.52 yards per routes run. One of the few WRs in college football that come close to the 30% target share threshold. Figure ECU will have to throw as a 5.5-point dog and could see more attention from Ahlers if CJ Johnson is indeed out.
Best of the Rest – TE Ryan Jones ($5,600) Third on team in targets, receptions, touchdowns and just about any other receiving category you might think of. Cincinnati has allowed some big performances to tight ends this season with Trey Knox (Arkansas) and RJ Maryland (SMU) both scoring over 14 fantasy points against the Bearcats. I won’t be playing Jones, though.
Injury Notes – WR CJ Johnson ($5,800) Per the ECU beat writer, Johnson suffered a “bulging-disc” type injury but has not confirmed exactly what it is. Sounds like a situation we need to wait until pregame warmups.
Cincinnati:
Top Play(s) – WR Tyler Scott ($6,500) Scott has been on a tear since coming back from injury with 22 targets in the last two games, including 10-139-2 last week against Navy. Excluding the game where Scott was injured against USF, the senior receiver is averaging 9.7 targets per game and found the endzone in all but three games in 2022. ECU is 112th in pass play success rate, but Scott’s bread and butter might be limited as the Pirates are 18th in pass play explosiveness.
Fade – RB Corey Kiner ($4,800) I believe Kiner is healthy but saw just three offensive snaps against Navy that came late in the fourth quarter. This isn’t even a Jerome Ford situation from a few years back where he was sitting behind a veteran. Kiner is barely seeing playing time for reasons unknown to me right now. Appears he’s either less than 100% unfortunately or has simply lost the backup job to Ryan Montgomery.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – WR Tre Tucker ($6,000) Have a feeling Cincinnati will struggle some to run against East Carolina meaning, for better or worse, 30+ pass attempts for QB Ben Bryant. I would not play them together, and would strongly favor Scott, but Tucker has been very good this season in his own right. I probably would not play the two Cincinnati receivers together in a lineup because we need heavy volume for Tucker to be effective. Just a 7.8 aDOT so he does not stretch the field normally.
Best of the Rest – QB Ben Bryant ($6,700) As we stated with Ahlers, this is a three-quarterback slate so we’re not playing Bryant either. Actually played well last week against Navy, but the calls continue to grow louder for a QB change with the Bearcats scoring just 20 points. RB Charles McClelland ($6,000) is an option but has scored just 11 fantasy points the last two games. Cincinnati’s offensive line has not been playing well of late and ECU is 29th in rush play success rate defensively.
Injury Notes – n/a
Colorado vs. USC
Point-Spread: USC -34.5
O/U Total: 65.5
Implied Score: USC 50 – Col 15.5
Weather: 59 degrees / 0% rain / 4 mph winds
USC:
Top Play(s) – QB Caleb Williams ($9,400) 40+ fantasy points in the last three games. I think the best part here is that the USC defense has been slouching of late, giving up 30 or more points in each of the last three weeks. This is still Colorado, but 15.5 implied team total might be their highest of the season. The downward trend of the USC defense + Caleb Williams being in the Heisman Trophy picture means he’s a lock.
Fade – RB Austin Jones ($5,100) After seeing 20 or more offensive snaps in each of the first five games, Jones has played just 41 offensive snaps in the last four weeks combined. He’s not playable even in this blowout situation.
Bargain Bin – WR Brenden Rice ($3,500) I don’t know how I feel about this play. Will be popular given his pricing, but he split snaps in a competitive game last week with Kyle Ford, only seeing two targets. Did he get injury or ineffective? Should be noted that Rice did lead the team in targets the week prior vs. Arizona, finding the end-zone on five receptions.
Pivot Play – RB Travis Dye ($7,100) Absolutely viable to pair both Williams and Dye in the same lineup together here. Arguably one of the most consistent fantasy producers in the country with 19 or more fantasy points in all but one game in 2022. Colorado has allowed the second most fantasy points in the country to opposing RB1s.
Best of the Rest – Assuming the star WRs are out, Tahj Washington ($5,100), Michael Jackson III ($4,800) and Terrell Bynum ($3,000) all enter the conversation after combining for 19 receptions and three touchdowns on 26 targets. I have them listed above based on priority.
Injury Notes – We’ll see on WR Jordan Addison ($7,600) and WR Mario Williams ($6,200) who have not played the last two weeks, and probably are not needed Friday. If it were the National Championship, both would be in uniform and available as we’ve seen video of both players in warmups and on the sidelines. I expect them back for UCLA next week.
Colorado:
Some teams have the worst luck. Colorado uncovered a gem in freshman WR Jordyn Tyson ($5,000) who posted consecutive 100-yard receiving performances but suffered a season-ending leg injury that could prevent him from playing some in 2023. With that, we have zero interest on the Colorado side. Of note, it does sound like RB Deion Smith ($4,100) will play on Friday per head coach Mike Sanford, so we could see a split backfield with RB Anthony Hankerson ($3,200). I believe that Smith is the RB1 here, though. He rushed for 111 yards on 24 carries prior to suffering his injury in Week 9 vs. Arizona State. USC is a porous run defense that is allowing 20.8 FPPG to opposing RB1s so maybe there’s a chance we could play one of the two RBs. I probably won’t go there.
Fresno State vs. UNLV
Point-Spread: Fresno St – 9.5
O/U Total: 59.5
Implied Score: Fresno St 34.5 – UNLV 25
Weather: Dome
Fresno St:
Top Play(s) – QB Jake Haener ($7,400) I get the argument for Doug Brumfield in the S-Flex given his price/projection, but I’m not fooling around here. Give me the high floor of Haener who has thrown for 300+ in both games since coming back from injury. UNLV has actually been decent on the backend this season, ranked 58th in pass play success rate and allowing 23.4 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. That doesn’t threaten me off Haener in this spot.
Fade – WR Zane Pope ($4,800) From an outsider’s perspective and box score analysis, it appears Fresno State was ramping up starter Josh Kelly ($4,500) the last two weeks since coming back from injury. Played a handful of snaps against San Diego State in Week 9, then essentially split reps with Pope last week against Hawaii. I won’t be rostering much of either player, but I’d take the discount here with Kelly of the two as he is the starter when all things equal.
Bargain Bin – n/a.
Pivot Play – WR Nikko Remigio ($6,900) Jake Haener loves him some Nikko Remigio. The slot receiver has scored double-digit fantasy points in all but one game this year that Haener has started. Don’t think it’s feasible to play both Remigio and Jalen Moreno-Cropper ($7,000) together in a lineup given their pricing, but from a fantasy standpoint, that is an option as they combine for 45% of the team target share and over half of Fresno State’s receiving production.
Best of the Rest – RB Jordan Mims ($6,700) Of the bigger names on the slate, I think Mims will see the lowest ownership percentages given his solid, but unspectacular 2022 season thus far. But I want to point this part out. In games that Jake Haener has NOT started, Mims is averaging 15.6 FPPG. In the games Haener has started, Mims is averaging 22.2 FPPG. Haener being in the lineup elevates the production of everyone in the Fresno offense. The Rebels are 101st in rush play success rate and 125th in rush play explosiveness.
Injury Notes – n/a Full bill of health on the Fresno State offense it appears.
UNLV:
Top Play(s) – QB Doug Brumfield ($5,200) Biggest decision on Friday comes down to Haener vs. Brumfield for the S-Flex. Middle of the road defense this year for Fresno State, ranked 59th in pass play success rate and 97th in explosiveness allowed. 21.4 FPPG to opposing QBs, but just gave up 39 fantasy points two weeks ago to a San Diego State quarterback. Very tempting here as Brumfield really opens up the options for the rest of our lineup.
Fade – RB Courtney Reese ($5,700) HC Marcus Arroyo leans on his RB1s more than any coach in the country and does not rotate in the backfield. Reese is rendered useless with Aidan Robbins back in the lineup.
Bargain Bin – WR Nick Williams ($3,600) Just love this from a CFF and DFS standpoint. Nick Williams, the WR3, played 59 of 61 snaps last week vs. San Diego State. We did not see a single receiver outside of the top three play a single rep against the Aztecs. Let’s hope that continues. Williams had 94 yards receiving and a TD.
Pivot Play – RB Aidan Robbins ($6,200) There’s really nothing special about the Fresno State defense, allowing 16 FPPG to opposing RB1s and are 79th in rush play success rate. As we stated above, Arroyo leans on his RB1s over the years, garnering over 40% of the backfield volume share. Nobody else will get attempts.
Best of the Rest – WR Kyle Williams ($5,300) and Ricky White ($5,500) Nothing to add here from a matchup standpoint. Kyle Williams has the Q tag on DraftKings, so we’ll have to just make sure he’s good to go, health wise. The duo combined for 18 targets last week against San Diego State, and both played the entire game. 61-of-61 offensive snaps.
Injury Notes – n/a
