Buffalo @ Miami (Ohio)
Point-Spread: Mia OH -7
O/U Total: 57
Weather: 53 degrees / 5% rain / 5 mph winds
Buffalo:
All eyes on the backfield here as to whether or not Kevin Marks will be available for the Bulls on Tuesday. He’s still listed on the game week depth chart, but was not in pads on the sidelines against Bowling Green two weeks ago. Head coach Mo Lindquist indicated in his weekly presser that they’ll get several players back from injury as they had time to recover during this mini bye week. Does that include Marks? One confirmation we did get from Lindquist is that Kyle Vantrease will be available on Tuesday, as he also suffered an injury against BG. The offense hasn’t changed drastically with the new coaching staff, but we are seeing Vantrease throw the football more in 2021 than he did in year’s past, averaging 27 attempts per, and already more TD passes than he threw in each of the last two seasons. As long as we get confirmation that Vantrease is full-go, he’s an option against a defense that is now allowing 29.7 FPPG to opposing QBs this season and are 92nd in Defensive Pass Success Rate. RedHawks are doing a good job of limiting the big play, ranked 11th in Explosiveness, but we sliced and diced by Kurtis Rourke last week, allowing 288 yards and three TDs.
As for the running backs, Lindquist did not give any indication on Marks, so we’ll continue to be under the impression that this is Dylan McDuffie’s backfield. And Lindquist did compliment his junior running back during the presser, stating he continues to play at a high level. Even if Marks returns, McDuffie seems to be the 1A option for this staff, topping 100 rushing yards in the last three games with nine scores. Worth it to spend up for McDuffie in this slate? Miami (Ohio) is 84th in Rush Play Success Rate but the RedHawks have limited opponents to under four yards in a carry in all five MAC contests. If Marks is out, I’d still want McDuffie in the lineup as he’s the only workhorse on this entire slate.
WR is fairly simple to decipher with Quian Williams, Dominic Johnson and slot -man Jamari Gassett dominating the target share and snap counts at the position the last few weeks. Williams is a strong play at $6,300 IMO where everyone’s attention will be geared towards the studs from last week with Sorenson/Beydoun. His volume really hasn’t wavered much this season, averaging over eight targets per game and this should be a positive game script for him as a 7-point dog. 6-foot-5 former quarterback Dominic Johnson has developed into a competent side-kick, now second on the team in targets (46) and has found the end-zone in the last two games. Gassett, a true freshman, has been targets four times in each of the last three games and his snap counts are steadily rising as the season moves along. 6-foot-6 sophomore tight end Tyler Stephens is in the same boat as Gassett with the staff getting a look at some of the younger talent, with 11 of his 13 total receptions coming in the last three games.
Miami (Ohio):
A yearly tradition in the MAC occurred last week – getting burned by a student journalist. Indications were that Jaylon Bester would play against Ohio, but was in street clothes on the sidelines. Chalk that one up as my mistake entirely because we should realistically be fading the Miami (Ohio) backfield no matter the cost. Four different running backs saw between 3-6 carries against the Bobcats last week, and if Bester is close to returning, make that five running backs this week. I will say this, though, that if you listened to the telecast last week, it does sound like this coaching staff is high on freshman Kenny Tracy who has seen an uptick in playing time the last three games. At 211 pounds, he does have the size to take on a heavier load, but I’m not sure we see that this year. With the lack of success the RedHawks have had this year on the ground, I wonder if Chuck Martin is ready to turn the backfield over to a freshman sooner rather than later. Really a shame we don’t have a RB to play here too because Buffalo is dreadful defending the run, ranking 121st in Rush Play Success Rate.
Its going to be tempting to roster Brett Gabbert this week after throwing a season-high 492 yards and five touchdowns on 57 attempts against Ohio. And it’s a great matchup as Buffalo is allowing 33.8 FPPG to opposing QBs this season – fourth most in the entire country. But the 52 attempts are an extreme outlier that I’m not sure we can expect anything close to that this week as a 7-point favorite. I know they looked shaky against the Bobcats but this is still the No. 2 scoring defense in the MAC. 52 attempts probably won’t be needed unless that group springs a few leaks again.
283 yards and 20 targets are not replicable for Jack Sorenson, but the senior receiver is now on a four-game streak of 100 receiving yards or more, now facing a defense that allowed four passing touchdowns to Bowling Green. On the season, Buffalo has allowed 15 passing TDs with just three interceptions, and are 128th in coverage grades per Pro Football Focus. Even at that pricing, I just think you have to lock in Sorenson with his high floor / high ceiling range of outcomes. We touched on Mac Hippenhammer last week as he and Sorenson dominate the team target share, and the Penn State transfer came through with 7-73-2 on nine targets. The player that I feel will be popular on this slate that I’ll be fading is WR3 Jalen Walker at $3,300. Season-high 10 targets, but that is way above his average this year and wasn’t even effective with that volume as he caught just two passes with a drop. Easy goose egg candidate considering we don’t expect another 30+ pass attempt game from Gabbert.
Akron @ Western Michigan
Point-Spread: WMU -26
O/U Total: 62
Weather: 48 degrees / 19% rain / 8 mph winds
Akron:
The Zips decided to move in a different direction as they fired head coach Tom Arth following last week’s loss to Ball State. Arth was likely going to get canned after the season, but crazy to wonder if Zach Gibson didn’t fumble at the goal-line last week if he’d still have a job today. Tougher challenge this week for Akron against the No. 1 total defense in the MAC and an implied total of just 18 points. Gibson should get another start I would assume at QB after completing 77 percent of his passes against Ball State with 331 yards and two scores. I don’t love the matchup this week for him. Yes, the Broncos gave up 42 points last week to Central Michigan, but that included a pair of returns for touchdowns by Kalil Pimpleton and 142 yards on the ground from Lew Nichols. WMU is allowing just 199 passing yards per game on the year and are second in the country in Pass Play Success Rate. Still cheap enough at $5k with a positive game script as a massive underdog that he should be able to surpass his salary, but I won’t be overweight with the Akron QB1.
FR Konata Mumpfield continues to be pleasant surprise this season for someone that was on zero radars heading into 2021, leading the team with 46 receptions and six touchdowns on 68 targets. Was on a span of five straight games of at least one TD, but hasn’t found the end-zone in the last three weeks. Still targeted 28 times in that span so whichever QB is under center has been looking for Mumpfield often. Michael Mathison is a close second with 45-560-3 on 64 targets as the duo accounts for 55 percent of the team target share. Mathison had a season-high 154 yards and eight receptions vs. Ball State. I wouldn’t risk rostering any other Akron receiver but senior Andre Williams is still around with 11 targets and a TD in the last three games. Tight end Tristan Brank had a season-high 5-38-1 on six targets last week.
FR running back Jonzell Norrils dominated the touches in the Akron backfield, finishing with 88 yards and a TD on 17 attempts. As poorly as the Akron offensive line grades out in pass pro, they are a far better run blocking group despite starting five freshmen, ranked 34th in Line Yards and 46th in Stuff Rate. Western Michigan does sit atop the MAC in run defense, and are giving up just 13.8 FPPG to opposing RB1s on the year. Still believe Norrils can have some success running against the Broncos, but I’ll be looking elsewhere at RB on the slate.
Western Michigan:
I remain baffled as to how Kaleb Eleby isn’t having a better season with all this offensive firepower the Broncos possess. He was fine against Central Michigan, completing 61 percent of his throws for 276 yards and a touchdown, but the Chips had one of the worst secondaries in the country coming into the matchup. Eleby will get another shot at a big performance this week where the Zips are 125th in PFF coverage grades and allowing 29.9 FPPG to opposing QB1s. Will be one of the safest QB options for this slate, but you run the risk of WMU building a big lead early on as a 26-point favorite. Same situation this week at receiver where Skyy Moore, Jaylen Hall and Corey Crooms dominate the team target share, nearing 80 percent. After disappearing for two games, Crooms asserted himself back into the rotation with 7-118-1 on eight targets. Hall now has five catches in each of the last four games, and is the team’s big play threat with an aDOT over 17.0 yards. Moore led WMU with 12 targets vs. Central Michigan. Just not a lot to add here honestly, you can roster anyone from that trio comfortably, but I’m unsure if stacking multiple receivers is a great idea considering WMU being heavy favorites. While 117th in Pass Play Success rate, the Zips are 16th in Pass Play Explosiveness so maybe Hall won’t be as successful with the deep shots? I’m grasping here trying to find an edge without projections being posted yet.
Here is the biggest reason I’m afraid at having too much exposure to Kaleb Eleby – Akron is dead last in the MAC at defending the run, allowing 220 YPG. Truly unfortunate that we have a three-headed backfield for WMU in such a favorable matchup with Sean Tyler, La’Darius Jefferson and Jaxson Kincaide. Snap counts are essentially split between Tyler/Jefferson so while I’d feel comfortable having both in my lineup, that also caps their upside given the 50-50 split. If this is a blowout as the Vegas line indicates, Kincaide might end up being the best option given his $3,700 salary, allowing you to spend up for some of the higher-priced players. All you need is 30 yards and a TD to pay off that salary.
Ohio @ Eastern Michigan
Point-Spread: EMU -7
O/U Total: 60.5
Weather: 47 degrees / 32% rain / 4 mph winds
Ohio:
We don’t have to wonder who the starting QB for the Bobcats will be this week after a masterful performance from Kurtis Rourke, albeit in a losing effort, completing 72 percent of his passes for 282 yards, three touchdowns and zero turnovers. We’re also seeing some shades of Nathan Rourke in little bro’s game now with over 110 rushing yards and two touchdowns in the last two games. If there is an area on defense that Eastern Michigan is better at, it would be the pass defense as they’ve allowed just nine passing TDs this season and giving up just 19.7 FPPG to opposing QB1s. The secondary came apart last week against Toledo, allowing over 400 passing yards to Dequan Finn, but had given up just one passing touchdown in the four games leading up to last Tuesday.
Rourke’s emergence breathes new life into the Ohio receivers. Cameron Odom, Isiah Cox and Tyler Walton accounted for 16 of the 20 targets that went to Ohio wideouts last week against Miami (OH) so that group is the only one under consideration. Cox, the projected WR1 coming into the season, has only played in six games but 17 of his 22 total targets have come in the last three games, including a season-high 6-99-2 vs. the RedHawks. Walton is probably the team’s most talented wideout and does lead the team in total targets (37), but his production has taken a hit the last month with Cox back in the lineup. Odom has been with the Bobcats since 2017 and does have 95 career receptions, but hasn’t found the end-zone in three years! Maybe he’s due? Only other pass-catcher worthy of a roster spot potentially is tight end Ryan Luehrman who has shown to be a red-zone option in the past with seven receiving TDs in the last two seasons.
Head coach Tim Albin mentioned in last week’s presser that he will continue to rotate De’Montre Tuggle and O’Shaan Allison in the backfield. That didn’t play out exactly as anticipated with Tuggle on the field for 15 more offensive plays than Allison, and did have an 11-4 advantage in terms of rushing attempts. As we did expect, Allison’s value gets boosted with Rourke back in the lineup as he had five receptions on six targets. It was Tuggle, though, who had the monster day with three total touchdowns (2 rushing / 1 receiving), averaging over six yards a carry on the ground. Eastern Michigan is 111th in Rush Play Success Rate and has allowed 10 rushing touchdowns in the last three games alone. Game preview from the Ohio beat writer indicated the offense could lean on Tuggle this week in trying to keep the EMU passing attack off the field.
Eastern Michigan:
Apparently DraftKings is unimpressed by back-to-back 26-point performances from Ben Bryant because his salary is still sitting at under $7k in a favorable matchup vs. Ohio where the Bobcats are eighth in the MAC in pass defense. My initial instinct is to lock in Bryant in my lineups, but I think I’ll take a close look at the Vegas line here in the leadup to kickoff. If the gap closes and trends towards Ohio in any way, I think that favors Bryant here, posting 40+ passing attempts in three of the last five games. If that line grows beyond -7 in favor of EMU, I might pivot off Bryant as he provides no upside on the ground and Eastern Michigan could lean on their rushing attack against the No. 11 ranked run defense in the conference. Why Bryant has had to throw more of late is EMU doesn’t have a potent running game, now sitting 11th of 12 teams in the MAC as the Eagles have averaged just 2.3 YPC as a team over the last five weeks. We finally saw an EMU running back post double-digit carries last week with Darius Boone Jr. rushing for 63 yards on 15 attempts, though the three rushing TDs went to backups Jawon Hamilton (1) and Samson Evans (2). Side with volume here if choosing between this group, meaning Boone is the best bet for fantasy production, but it will be a rotation.
Hassan Beydoun loves the bright lights of MACtion doesn’t he? It’s tough to believe his 12-197-2 performance was actually outshined by Jack Sorenson. WR2 Dylan Drummond was targeted 10 times, resulting in just three catches, but did find the end-zone for the fifth time in the last six weeks. This duo accounts for over 50 percent of the team target share, but now we have to factor in the return of last year’s WR2 Tanner Knue who surprised everyone with his first appearance of the season. No rust either has he was targeted nine times, resulting in six catches for 55 yards and a TD. Just not sure the passing volume will be there for the EMU receivers this week if the Eagles are able to find more success on the ground. Bryce Cannon did not end up playing last week as he was questionable due to injury leading up to the contest.
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