Ball State @ Northern Illinois
Point-Spread: Ball -2.5
O/U Total: 61.5
Weather: 53 degrees / 42% rain / 13 mph winds
Ball State:
Massive game tonight in the friendly confines of DeKalb, Illinois (my old stomping grounds) where Ball State can sit atop the MAC West standings with a win over NIU. Looks like we’ll be battling some weather as well, with 42 percent rain showers expected at around 8 pm tonight and winds around the 13-15 MPH range for the entire game. The other storyline to monitor here is injuries as WR3 Jayshon Jackson left last week’s contest. A former Cincinnati transfer, Jackson is third on the team in targets (59) and second in catches (39) so this would be a big loss for the BSU passing game. Should Jackson be out, that would definitely boost the value of both Justin Hall and Yo’Heinz Tyler as that trio consists of really the only three players in the offense that gets frequent targets – accounting for 68 percent of the total team share. Should Jackson miss the contest, looks like Trevor Hohlt would be the replacement in the starting lineup.
I don’t see a ton of upside with Drew Plitt tonight, but he’ll be a good leverage play as I think folks will flock towards Dustin Crum and Daniel Richardson tonight at the two-QB spots (I’m not even sure a second QB is need tonight, to be honest). MACtion does bring out the best in Plitt, who had his second-best fantasy performance of the season last week with over 200 total yards and three touchdowns. Plitt seems to be progressing as the season’s gone alone with 12 touchdowns to just one interception in the last five games. The Huskies are allowing 28.5 FPPG to opposing QBs this season. I don’t think Plitt will bust, but probably unlikely to get you 25+ fantasy points, unless NIU completely shuts down the Ball State rushing attack.
Speaking of the running game, fire up Thor look-a-like Carson Steele tonight after logging 27 carries for 154 yards and a receiving TD last week against Akron. Game plan really should be the same this week for the Cardinals facing a NIU defense that is allowing 5.72 YPC on the season and the same amount of rushing TDs (25) as the Zips. Kent State gashed the Huskies for 360 yards and five touchdowns last week. 23.5 FPPG allowed this season to opposing RB1s – 9th worst in the country – so Steele should have a big day.
Northern Illinois:
Tyrice Richie is not listed on the NIU depth chart so we can expect him to be out after being taken off on a cart with a foot injury last week. That’s the bad news. Good news is QB1 Rocky Lombardi is on the depth chart and is ready to go per head coach Thomas Hammock in his weekly media appearance. Depth chart reads exactly the same at running back with Jay Ducker listed as the starter, no Harrison Waylee, and Antario Brown on the third line so I suspect we see a similar distribution on Wednesday with Ducker getting around 50 percent of the team’s total carries. Last week’s first half against Kent State was very frustrating for Ducker owners as the staff was rotating in both Clint Ratkovich (two rushing TDs) and backup Mason Blakemore who had a combined 10 attempts, but the staff rode their RB1 workhorse for much of the second half. Going to be really tough to fade Ducker at $4,900 given NIU runs the football 64 percent of the time, but the Ball State run defense is trending upwards at the moment. Just 87th nationally in Rush Success Rate defensively, but rank 7th in the country in tackling per PFF and are limiting opponents to just three yards a carry over the last five games.
Not the same case for the Ball State pass defense which is allowing a 70 percent completion rate to opposing QBs over the last three games. Lombardi has been better over the last two games with six touchdowns, zero interceptions and a combined 880 passing yards. Phenomenal numbers, yes. But those 880 yards are just 93 yards shy of what Lombardi put up in the first seven games of the season (lol). Crazy stat.
No Richie means we’ll see a starting trio of Trayvon Rudolph, Cole Tucker and Messiah Travis at receiver tonight. We know what Rudolph did last week, becoming just the 25th player in FBS history to have over 300 receiving yards in a game. 14 receptions on 21 targets. Assuming Rudolph is truly the alpha of the WR corps this week, he’ll see his plenty of targets directed his way as Richie hit double-digit targets in four of the five games prior to last week – and was on his way to hitting that mark again had it not been for the injury. I don’t see Tucker replicating his 12 targets this week, given NIU’s preference to run the football as we’ve mentioned, but will maintain his role as the WR2. Travis posted 3-57-0 on four targets last week filling in for Richie and is cheap at $3,500.
Kent State @ Central Michigan
Point-Spread: CMU -2.5
O/U Total: 75
Weather: 41 degrees / 18% rain / 6 mph winds
Kent State:
I think we’re looking to the passing game tonight with the Kent State offense. Central Michigan boasts a top three run defense in the MAC, allowing under four yards a carry in the last four contests, and rank 20th in tackling according to PFF so this Chips defense has the ability to limit any big plays in the running game. The Flashes obviously can put up numbers on the ground, having three of the top-13 rushers in the conference with Dustin Crum, Marquez Cooper and Xavier Williams, and the offensive line is creating holes on the ground, ranked 4th in Line Yards. But with run defense being CMU’s strength on defense, combined with Kent State distributing the carries between three different players, maybe we look towards Crum and his collection of receivers as the group with the higher upside tonight.
Of course, when we fade Ja’Shaun Poke last week at min pricing, he has one of his better performances of the season with 4-84-0 on six targets. Sign of things to come for the once-projected WR1 for the Flashes prior to the season? The telecast last week did indicate that Poke is now 100 percent after suffering an injury back in September, though he’s been on the field plenty in the last six weeks with little production to show for it. He’s cheap again at $3,300 so I can envision myself having quite a bit of exposure here given I’m on the Kent State passing game this week. Dante Cephas remains the team’s WR1 and recorded his fourth 100-yard performance in six games last week against NIU, but didn’t pay off his salary with at least one drop and didn’t find the end-zone. I expect that changes this week against a Chips secondary that is 127th in Pass Play Explosiveness. Kent State plays four receivers extensively throughout the game so Keshunn Abram and Nykeim Johnson will see plenty of looks their way as well.
Central Michigan:
Advanced metrics show exactly what the weekly game plan is for Kent State’s 3-3-5 defense in the passing game – limit the big play. The Flashes are 122nd in Pass Play Success Rate, yet 52nd in Explosiveness allowed. Daniel Richardson and the Chips should be able to get whatever they want near the line of scrimmage. Who does that bode well for? Lew Nichols is a play no matter what tonight, but he should thrive as a pass-catcher underneath if Kent State is intent on giving up junk near the LOS. Didn’t have a single target vs. Western Michigan, but remains near the top of the team leaderboard with 30 receptions on 36 targets. Nichols is our highest projected RB by a country mile tonight, facing a Kent State defense that is allowing 22.5 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season. No other CMU running back had more than a single carry.
Going back to the passing game, Richardson has one of the highest aDOTs in the MAC at 12.3 so this offense wants to stretch the field if possible. Coincidentally, his best performances of the season came in a two-week stretch against Toledo and NIU where his aDOT under 9.0 yards in both contests, completing 60 percent of his passes with five total touchdowns. This might work in Richardson’s favor tonight. All eyes will be on Kalil Pimpleton this week after his monster outing against WMU with three total touchdowns – two of which coming on returns. He’s now on a span of three straight weeks with 100-yard receiving. Does Kent State double him tonight? He’s really the only CMU pass-catcher I have a ton of confidence in right now. Yes, JaCorey Sullivan did play last week, with zero catches on three targets. Not sure how you can rationalize playing Sullivan over Pimpleton given they are separated by just $100, but that would be an extreme leverage play towards the majority of the field. Sullivan was on a streak of six straight games with at least one touchdown. WR3 Dallas Dixon has been trending downward the last month with just nine catches in the last four games. He’s probably finding the end-zone tonight now that I said this. If Kent State’s strength is limiting the big play, that’s bad news for Dixon who is the team’s top deep threat. Tight end Joel Wilson has two receiving touchdowns in the last two weeks, targeted nine times in that span. Head coach Jim McElwain has never been shy about using the tight end position in the past when he’s had one.
Toledo @ Bowling Green
Point-Spread: Tol -10.5
O/U Total: 50
Weather: 50 degrees / 0% rain / 8 mph winds
Toledo:
I keep seeing folks taking the under in the Toledo – Bowling Green matchup tonight, so how much exposure do we want here? The defense for BG under a first-year coordinator has been improved, but remain vulnerable on the ground, allowing 20.5 FPPG to opposing RB1s and are 108th in Rush Play Success rate. Feel safe here about rostering Bryant Koback who posted a season-high 38.6 fantasy points last week with 180 rushing yards and two scores. A very low-risk option for our rosters but how much upside do we have here? Koback’s volume is way down from a season ago, averaging just 18 touches per game compared to 25 in 2020. Backup Micah Kelly isn’t dipping into Koback’s workload much, averaging just five carries per game.
Difference this year looks to be QB Dequan Finn dipping into the rushing volume, averaging seven attempts per game since being inserted into the starting lineup. Coming off a career-best 461 passing yards and three touchdowns last week against Eastern Michigan, I’ll be underweight on Finn tonight as Bowling Green boasts one of the best secondaries in the MAC, allowing just 21.8 FPPG to opposing QB1s and are 16th in Pass Play Success Rate. 112th in Pass Play Explosiveness which could open up some opportunities for deep-threat Isaiah Winstead who had a season-high 12 targets against EMU. If only Winstead could catch the football, with one drop in the last four games.
Not necessary to roster any Toledo receivers this week as they’ll rotate 5-6 options throughout the game. Jerjuan Newton started in place of the injured Bryce Mitchell (OFY), but we saw a ton of Georgia transfer Matt Landers who had a season-high 150 receiving yards and two touchdowns on five receptions. Why hasn’t he been playing all season?!?! Devin Maddox, Danzel McKinley-Lewis and DeMeer Blankumsee all saw rotational snaps. Of that trio Maddox has been the most productive this year with a team-high 31 receptions on 45 targets and three scores. Was on the field for 57 percent of the offensive snaps.
Bowling Green:
I know the Toledo defense is coming off a game in which they allowed 52 points to Eastern Michigan, but this remains the best unit in the MAC as the Rockets rank in the top 30 nationally in Line Yards, Opportunity Rate, Pass Efficiency Defense and Sack Rate. Defending the run is where Toledo specializes the most, ranking 17th in Rush Play Success Rate and 9th in Rush Play Explosiveness. My full fade of Akron’s Jonzell Norrils yesterday worked out, and I’ll be doing the same with Terion Stewart who is priced up all the way to $5,500 after rushing for 170 yards and two scores on 11 carries against Buffalo in Week 9. That gives Stewart three touchdowns in the last two weeks played, after no rushing for over 20 yards in any of the first four games, so he does seem to be trending upwards late in the year like he did a year ago. This isn’t the matchup, though, against this defense. Bowling Green does not generate a ton of push along the offensive line, ranking 129th in Line Yards and 110th in Stuff Rate. Bad, bad matchup.
I don’t think this necessarily needs to be a two-QB slate, so I’ll be mostly fading Matt McDonald which is usually an optimal strategy regardless. To his credit, McDonald has at least looked the part of a former P5 transfer / 3-star recruit playing in the MAC this season, completing over 61 percent of his throws with 10 passing touchdowns – four of which came last time out against Buffalo. Volume should be there tonight for McDonald as a 10.5-point dog as he’s averaging 34 attempts per contest, though just twice he’s thrown more than one TD pass in a game this season. If any rushing prop is up for McDonald this week, I’d take the under as this is one of the worst pass blocking lines in the conference.
Four options to choose from with the Bowling Green pass-catchers. Washington transfer Austin Osborne leads the team by a substantial margin with 48 receptions on 66 targets, though his 7.8 aDOT and 8.2 YPR average indicate there isn’t a lot of upside here in terms of big plays. Would favor him on DK vs. FD given the scoring settings. Complete opposite end of the spectrum with 6-foot-4 sophomore Tyrone Broden who has a 17.4 aDOT and leads the Falcons with five receiving touchdowns. Slot receiver Jhaylin Embry is the extreme punt play as BG mostly plays just two wideouts on offense, but 10 of his 11 targets have come in the last three weeks. Two-tight end sets are a staple of the BG offensive scheme. Junior Christian Sims is third on the team with 34 receptions on 45 targets, and found the end-zone twice against Buffalo. Not necessary to roster anyone from this group, but do believe it’s a near-guarantee that McDonald throws it 35+ times tonight so someone is likely to have 5+ receptions.
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