Southern Miss @ Louisiana Tech
Point-Spread: La Tech -15.5
O/U Total: 49
Weather: 43 degrees / 0% rain / 2 mph winds
Southern Miss:
- That’s how many quarterbacks Southern Miss has been forced to use this season whether due to injury or ineffective play. As a result, the Eagles threw just seven passes against UTSA – three by starting RB Frank Gore Jr. and four more from receiver Antavious Willis. Listening to Will Hall in his weekly presser, which makes my ears bleed the way southern coaches say “progrum”, it doesn’t sound like the game plan is going to change much this week because they simply do not have the personnel right now to do much else. That means Willis is in play here as a min-priced WR that could see anywhere between 10-20 carries if the game-plan is similar to last week. As for Gore Jr., he left the game last week due to injury, and Hall stated they’re going to play a bunch of guys in that backfield against Louisiana Tech. Unless we get clarity that Gore Jr. is 100 percent, he’s an easy fade. Out on all the receivers for obvious reasons. Backup RB Dajon Richard would likely get the nod if Gore Jr. is out, and Louisiana Tech is allowing 21.9 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season. The comment from Hall stating that Southern Miss will play “a bunch of dudes” in the backfield gives me some pause, and we should not feel any necessity of rostering someone on a team with an implied total of just 16 points. Sprinkle Richard in on an as-needed basis if we get confirmation Gore Jr. is out.
Louisiana Tech:
I can’t imagine a scenario in which we don’t see Aaron Allen get another start at quarterback this week as he helped Louisiana Tech end a 5-game losing streak with arguably the best performance of his career, throwing for 327 yards and two touchdowns against Charlotte. I’ve seen Allen play enough to where I know I’ll have zero confidence if I have him on my rosters in DFS…but he’s $4,500!!! So many blundering errors by DraftKings this year with pricing. JD Head and Austin Kendall are both questionable this week due to injury, so I’d imagine the coaching staff rides the hot hand here. Southern Miss allows 23.1 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season, are 65th in Pass Play Success Rate and 121st in Pass Play Explosiveness. The concern would be Southern Miss dominating the TOP here, ala an Army or Navy, running what will basically be a triple-option scheme.
Overall numbers for the Southern Miss run defense look good – 34th in Rush Play Explosiveness and 45th in Rush Play Success Rate. Then you look at the game logs, and looks like that was influenced by the early season performances against a weak non-conference. 10 of the 14 rushing touchdowns allowed by USM have come in the last five games, and are allowing 5.4 YPC in that span. That puts Marcus Williams Jr. in play after a breakout game last week with 131 yards and four touchdowns against Charlotte. The 49ers have a bottom two rush defense in the entire country, so I wouldn’t overreact to such a performance, but Williams has been trending upwards with at least one rushing TD in the last three weeks. FWIW, Southern Miss is only allowing 14.6 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season and Louisiana Tech ranks very poorly in the run blocking department so this isn’t a gimme matchup. Backup Keyon Henry-Brooks could get some run if Louisiana Tech flexes its muscles Friday as a 16-point favorite.
Some juicy matchups for the La Tech receivers as none of the three starting cornerbacks for Southern Miss grade out well in coverage via PFF. Slot-man Smoke Harris is too cheap at $5,900 given he’s averaging 8.6 targets per game and has found the end-zone four times in the last four weeks. A priority on DK in full-point PPR. The Bulldogs will rotate four other receivers pretty consistently. Tre Harris sees the most snaps regularly among the group, even more then Smoke, averaging around five targets per game. Isaiah Graham starts opposite Harris, and looks like he’ll line up opposite a defensive back for Southern Miss with a coverage grade of under 50 (yikes).
Arizona @ Washington State
Point-Spread: Wazzu -15
O/U Total: 52.5
Weather: 37 degrees / 46% rain / 9 mph winds
Arizona:
We’ve seen improvements from the Wildcats in recent weeks, scoring 29+ points in narrow losses to USC and No. 24 Utah, along with a 10-3 victory over a depleted Cal team. Does that increase our interest in any Arizona players this week? A 20-point projection for QB1 Will Plummer at just $5.5k is interesting as he’s given a spark to this offense, scoring 19+ fantasy points in two of the last three games, and averaging around 10 carries per game in that span. Washington State is allowing just 19.5 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season and have given up just five passing touchdowns in the last seven games. With Plummer being on the road, in rainy/cold conditions which he’s not used to playing in, and such a low implied total (19), I think it’s best to just pass here.
Not a single running back had more than six carries against Utah last week, so our interest in the Arizona backfield is minimal. FWIW – true freshman Stevie Rocker has seen increased activity the last month, and if you’ve followed us since this spring, this is a player that should be on our radars moving forward in coming seasons. Washington State is allowing 18.8 FPPG to opposing RBs and are 103rd in Rush Play Success defensively so maybe Rocker busts a long run, but that is just a total shot in the dark as Arizona will likely rotate 4-5 backs.
It’s that time of year when teams with lost seasons are starting to get extended looks at some of their younger players, and that stands true with 6-foot-1 FR wideout Dorian Singer who now has 21 targets over the last three games, and eight in each of the last two. He’s seen over 70 percent of the team’s offensive snaps in that three-week span so he’s on the field quite a bit. Stanley Berryhill III continues to be the target hot for the Wildcats with nearly 29 percent of the team share. Nobody else is under consideration among the Arizona pass-catchers, unless its Jamayre Joiner who the staff continues to use in wildcat formations, but I’m not going there.
Washington State:
Arizona’s offense looking somewhat competent over the last three games increases out interest in Washington State this week if we believe they’ll have to play their starters for all 60 minutes. We also like the implied 37.5 implied team total here, but have to monitor the weather a bit as there is rain in the forecast. Looks like the precipitation in Pullman decreases as the night goes on and could turn to snow so that should be fun viewing at least. Jayden de Laura is obviously in play this week at $7,300 with a 24-point projection, facing an Arizona defense that is allowing 24.5 FPPG to opposing QBs. Defense really hasn’t been the issue for the Wildcats this season as they rank second in the conference, allowing just 193.6 YPG. Some of that is coincidental, like facing California without half their offensive starters, including Chase Garbers, but the Wildcats are 54th in Pass Play Success Rate.
We’ve spoken about the Washington State receivers ad nauseum since February so I refuse to do a deep dive here. Calvin Jackson Jr. and Travell Harris are always in play as they account for 50 percent of the team’s target share and Arizona’s nickel corner/linebackers grade out very poorly in coverage so the two slot receivers should feast. True freshman De’Zhaun Stribling is starting to establish himself as a reliable third option, now third on the team with 54 targets, and is on the field for over 85 percent of the team’s offensive snaps over the last few weeks.
Looks like this will be Max Borghi’s final game in front of the home crowd as he’ll participate in the senior day festivities on Friday. Borghi is seeing a price decrease at $5,200 as he’s splitting time with Deon McIntosh since he’s returned from injury, and hasn’t found the end-zone the last two games. I don’t feel the need to cram Borghi into my lineup despite is attainable pricing as Arizona has been quite good at stopping the run the last month and a half – aside from the USC game where Keaontay Ingram ran wild. 61st in Rush Play Success Rate defensively and allowing just 16.7 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season which is right around Borghi’s projection for this week. Solid play but minimal upside with the division of carries between him and McIntosh.
Memphis @ Houston
Point-Spread: Hou -8.5
O/U Total: 60.5
Weather: 56 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Memphis:
Will have to see if we can find updates pregame on the status of WR1 Calvin Austin who barely played in the first half last week against East Carolina, and saw just 27 offensive snaps for the entire game. Head coach Ryan Silverfield actually said he hasn’t been 100 percent the last few weeks and has not practiced much. In his place, we’ve seen a bump in activity from Rutgers transfer Eddie Lewis with nine receptions on 18 targets in the last two games, and three touchdowns in the last month. Austin’s health status determines which one of the two we roster on Friday. WR2 Javon Ivory continues to see consistent offensive snaps, but production has been sporadic. Had six catches on 10 targets vs. SMU, but was shutout against East Carolina last week on just two targets. Houston is only allowing 6.0 FPPG to opposing tight ends this season, but have given up four performances of double-digit fantasy points, and we do have Sean Dykes projected ahead of Austin this week at 16.1. Unless we get confirmation that Austin is 100 percent, I feel it best to pivot elsewhere.
Seth Henigan has generally played well as a freshman, completing 61 percent of his passes for 2,778 yards and 21 touchdowns to just six interceptions. But five of those INTs have come in the last four games. This isn’t a great matchup against a Houston defense that ranks 5th in Pass Play Success Rate and are third in the AAC in yards allowed per game. Henigan’s projection of 21.2 almost exactly lines up with the FPPG allowed to opposing QB1s by Houston this year (21.8). Working in favor of Henigan is Memphis inability to run the football of late, so the volume should be there for the freshman to put up numbers. While inconsistent for much of the season, Memphis has failed to score 25 points in a game just once.
Brandon Thomas has just 27 rushing yards over the last three games, and did not play in Week 10 due to injury. Against East Carolina, Memphis RBs combined for just 46 yards on 11 carries, with Henigan being the leading rusher on the day. Against the No. 1 run defense in the conference, I think we all-out fade the Memphis running game.
Houston:
The Houston offense is far from dominant in any one particular area, but the unit as a whole is playing complementary and mistake-free football. The Cougars are just 10th of 11 teams in the AAC in rushing, but have really hit their stride the last two games with over 200 yards against both South Florida and Temple with a combined seven rushing scores. True freshman Alton McCaskill continues to look like the future of the Houston program, topping 100 yards in both games with five touchdowns. McCaskill’s 732 rushing yards puts him third in the country among freshman running backs, sitting behind Ohio State’s TreVeyon Henderson and Wisconsin’s Braelon Allen. Memphis’ run defense has been solid for much of the year, and has limited both SMU and East Carolina in recent weeks to under 3.5 yards per carry. Not a limiting factor to rostering McCaskill but gives you some pause.
Junior quarterback Clayton Tune has improved in nearly every statistical category since last season, completing close to 70 percent of his passes for 2,448 yards and 21 touchdowns with just six interceptions. After tossing four interceptions in the opener vs. Texas Tech, Tune only has two in the last nine games, and hasn’t thrown an INT in the last five contests. In fact, Houston is tied for fourth in the country in turnover margin. Tune will have his chances on Saturday against a Memphis defense that ranks 107th in the country, allowing 260 YPG through the air and allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 66 percent of their throws. The Tigers are also giving up 24.9 FPPG on average to opposing QBs this season.
Will have to monitor whether KeSean Carter winds up traveling with the team this week, as he missed the Temple contest. Mostly a non-factor this season, Carter did have 123 yards on six receptions in Week 10 vs. USF. Nathaniel Dell remains the WR1 for Houston, but looks to have a tough matchup this week lined up across from Memphis defensive back Jacobi Francis who is their highest-graded player on defense. Might be enough to fade given he’s the highest-priced receiver on the slate? Jeremy Singleton and Jake Herslow both caught touchdowns against USF, and have played the second and third-most snaps at receiver in the last few weeks. Tight end usage is up this year for Houston with the duo of Christian Trahan and Seth Green, but Memphis is allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing TE’s in the country. Green had seven receptions on eight targets last week vs. Temple, while Trahan has consistently been the team’s second-best pass-catcher behind Dell, with 31 receptions on 39 targets.
Air Force @ Nevada
Point-Spread: Nev -1.5
O/U Total: 52.5
Weather: 45 degrees / 7% rain / 3 mph winds
Air Force:
I’ll have a difficult time sitting Brad Roberts at $7k as he remains second in the country, averaging 23.5 rushing attempts per game, coming off a season-high 151 yards and two scores on the road against a good Colorado State defense. Air Force is now 4-0 on the road this week so really shouldn’t have a ton of concerns traveling to Nevada. The Wolfpack are allowing 18.3 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season and are 75th in Rush Play Success Rate. Air Force’s offensive line should have a significant edge in the trench battle as they’re 36th in Line Yards vs. 110th in Defensive Line Yards for Nevada. Wolfpack are 5th in Stuff Rate, but Air Force does a great job at limiting TFLs from the opposing defense and always pushing the pile forward. Slot-back DeAndre Hughes did rush for 100+ yards against CSU, but his best performances this season have been when Air Force is comfortably ahead. This doesn’t feel like that game.
I can’t fathom rostering an Air Force receiver in a five-game slate like this, but Brandon Lewis has had a nice couple weeks here with 100+ yards vs. Army, and 92 yards with a touchdown last week against CSU. Air Force runs the ball 85 percent of the time so you run the risk of a goose egg if the Falcons dominate TOP and run with success. WR2 Dane Kinamon has seen increased usage over the last three games with 11 targets and a receiving touchdown in each of the last two weeks. Rushed for 65 yards on eight attempts. QB Haaziq Daniels hasn’t scored more than 19 fantasy points since Week 4 but could be forced to throw more against Nevada as a 1.5-point underdog.
Nevada:
I found this quote very notable from Nevada head coach Jay Norvell – “We kind of made the decision to do what we feel like we need to do to win. The most important stats are to win and score points. We are the highest-scoring team in our conference and we’ve done that by throwing the ball and not running the ball.” So, Toa Taua is out of our player pool then after reading that, as the senior back has posted under 10 carries in two of the last three weeks. I suppose in a PPR format like DK, Taua could still provide some value as a pass-catcher with 16 receptions on 18 targets in the last three games, but don’t think he’ll give us anything on the ground as Air Force is 12th in the country against the run, and allowing 12.7 FPPG to opposing RB1s.
Carson Strong proved last week against a Top 10 defense in San Diego State that he is essentially matchup-proof, passing for 350 yards and three touchdowns. Strong should also get one of his top pass-catchers back this week in Cole Turner who will return from a concussion. With Turner back, that downgrades Justin Lockhart as non-playable in my opinion. The junior receiver shifted to the slot last week with Turner out and had 4-31-0 on seven targets. He’ll now be moved back outside and has lost his starting job to Tory Horton who is emerging as the WR2 the last four games with 24 receptions on 30 targets. Romeo Doubs is the one constant, with six of his seven receiving touchdowns coming in the last five games. Doubs will have a significant size advantage against cornerback Zion Kelly who stands just 5-foot-10. WR3 Melquan Stovall remains in play even as the third or fourth option in the passing game as it sounds like Nevada is totally content on throwing it 53 times as they have the last five weeks.
FWIW – Norvell was asked about the team’s morale and motivation this week, and said it was fair of the reporter to ask that as Nevada has essentially been eliminated from the Mountain West title race. Might be of interest to some in the betting community.
San Diego State @ UNLV
Point-Spread: SDSU -11
O/U Total: 41
Weather: 58 degrees / 0% rain / 4 mph winds
SDSU:
I can’t ever rationalize starting a San Diego State quarterback, but if you were ever going to play one, this could be the week with Lucas Johnson. UNLV is allowing 29.4 FPPG this season to opposing QB1s and the Rebels have really struggled with running quarterbacks this season as both Nick Nash and Jayden Daniels rushed for 100+ yards. Johnson doesn’t run a ton, but discounting sack yardage, is averaging over four yards per attempt. But again, I’m not advising starting him with a projection of just 13.8 fantasy points this week and almost zero upside as an 11-point favorite. Just trying to state a case as to why he might be playable.
Greg Bell should see high ownership this week at just $6,100 with an 18-point projection, but I’ll throw some caution to the wind with playing him. UNLV has steadily improved this season at defending the run, allowing just 15.7 FPPG to opposing RB1s and now have 38 TFLs in the last five games (just 16 in the first five). In total, UNLV is 38th in Rush Play Success Rate which is far better than I was expecting initially, and San Diego State’s offensive line been average at best this year, ranking 102nd in Stuff Rate and 81st in Line Yards. In games that Bell’s been healthy, he’s averaging 24 carries per game, but that’s dropped to just 16 attempts over the last month. Backup Chance Bell got extended run in a narrow game vs. Nevada last week with 12 carries for 55 yards and a score. TE1 Daniel Bellinger is the top option in the SDSU passing game, with 19 of his 26 total receptions coming in the last five games. UNLV is only allowing 6.5 FPPG to opposing tight ends, but allowed double-digit fantasy points to Derrick Deese, Cole Turner and Charlie Kolar. Bellinger isn’t on that level but he’s just one step below from a talent perspective. 6-foot-4 junior Elijah Kothe has come on in recent weeks at receiver with 17 of his 31 targets in the last three games, and did top 100 yards receiving at Fresno State. WR1 Jesse Matthews is the only other SDSU pass-catcher I would consider.
UNLV:
Implied team total of just 15 points for the Rebels, but we have four players projected to score double-digit fantasy points so might not be an all-out fade as initially expected. Good news is that the fifth-highest projected player for UNLV is at just 2.98 points so we know exactly where to look here. Charles Williams is juiced up to $7,500 as the highest salary of the slate at the RB position after his 266-yard performance last week against Hawaii. He’s completely unplayable at that cost against a San Diego State defense that allows just 10.6 FPPG to opposing RB1s. I really like FR quarterback Cameron Friel for the future…but not this week. The Aztecs are 7th in the country in Pass Play Success Rate and give up just 18.2 FPPG to opposing QBs. Only place we can potentially look to is receiver as I suspect UNLV will be forced to throw as a double-digit underdog. Between Kyle Williams and Steve Jenkins, the two account for 50 percent of the team target share and six of the team’s nine receiving touchdowns. Neither player plays in the slot exclusively, but I’ll be curious to see if the staff shifts one of them inside because SDSU’s nickel corner does not grade out well in coverage. Could be an area to exploit. 6-foot-3 junior Marcus Phillips starts in the slot, and 14 of his 17 targets have come in the last three weeks. Just not a lot on his resume to trust him.
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