North Texas vs. UTSA
Point-Spread: UNT -2.5
O/U Total: 72.5
Implied Score: UNT 38 – UTSA 35.5
Weather: Dome
North Texas:
Top Play(s) – QB Chandler Morris ($8,900) I get it, it’s difficult to trust Morris after his disastrous performance against Army last week. UTSA is NOT Army and won’t go on a 14-minute drive that sucks up an entire quarter of play. The Roadrunners are allowing 29.8 FPPG to quarterbacks this season, where the QBs are averaging almost 37% above their seasonal numbers when facing UTSA. Four quarterbacks this season have scored at least 33 fantasy points against the Roadrunners. 50-point upside with Morris this week for a team playing on an indoor surface that is 6th in the nation in pass play percentage.
Fade – WR Nick Rempert ($3,500) Rempert doesn’t have an injury tag on DraftKings but played all of five offensive snaps last week in the loss to Army – his lowest amount since Week 4. WR Landon Sides ($3,600) is in the same category, seemingly out of the equation, playing around 20% of the team’s snaps each week.
Bargain Bin – Secondary WR options. Sheffield and Ward get the headlines, but North Texas rolls in 6-7 wideouts throughout games each week. Dalton Carnes is the top selection beyond the top two, playing over 50% of the team’s snaps each week, with 26 receptions and averaging 5.2 targets per game. Blair Conwright is third on the team in routes run, and tied for second in touchdowns (4), averaging nearly 16 yards per catch. And true freshman Wyatt Young has emerged a bit here, averaging over 21 yards per reception, and his playing time spiked against Army, playing over 50% of the team’s snaps.
Pivot Play – RBs. Split backfield between Shane Porter and Makenzie McGill, so no real advantage in rostering one over the other here. And it might behoove you to just fade the entire room given how rare it is to see UNT run the football. But, scoring opportunities a plenty with a 72.5-point game total so it’s not unrealistic that one of either Porter or McGill rumbles in for a touchdown on Friday. FWIW – McGill has a significant advantage in that area, doubling up Porter (18-9) in red-zone carries this season.
Best of the Rest – WR DT Sheffield ($8,600) And WR Damon Ward ($6,100) At least one North Texas wide receiver needs to be in your lineup – preferably Sheffield who is WR7 in college fantasy football in point scored – but stacking both he and Ward together is absolutely viable given that UTSA is allowing nearly 50 combined fantasy points per game to opposing WRs.
Injury Notes – RB Ikaika Ragsdale was back at practice the first week of November. Haven’t seen an update since, but something to watch for in pregame. If healthy, he’s the best back on the roster.
UTSA:
Top Play(s) – QB Owen McCown ($7,600) The UTSA run game has been a massive disappointment this season, and McCown is picking up the slack of late with 13 passing touchdowns in the last four games. Making this more impressive is that McCown has done this with excessive injuries at the wide receiver position for the Roadrunners. On Saturday, UTSA was down multiple starters at the receiver spot. After UTSA’s bye week, the schedule is very appealing with a possible shootout with North Texas and then at home vs. Temple.
Fade – RBs. Similar logic we stated above for North Texas running backs applies here for UTSA. High game total means at least one of the RBs for the Roadrunners will likely find the end-zone. But this has been one of the most disappointing units in the entire country, ranking 124th in rush success rate and 126th in EPA per run play. The days of Sincere McCormick are long gone. UTSA will rotate three backs between Kevorian Barnes, Robert Henry Jr and Brandon High Jr., and your guess is as good as mine which player pops in that given week.
Bargain Bin – TE Houston Thomas ($4,200) Following a 100-yard receiving performance against Tulsa, Thomas found the end-zone twice in the win over Memphis, converting on all six of his targets. Former TE1 Oscar Cardenas is out for the season, concluding his college career, so Thomas will be the starter for the rest of the year. With a depleted WR room back in Week 10 vs. Memphis, three UTSA tight ends caught touchdowns with TE Patrick Overmyer ($3,700) and TE Dan Dishman ($3,500). Not a one-week deal either as Overmyer was targeted eight times back in Week 9, while Dishman has caught a TD in consecutive games.
Pivot Play – WR Willie McCoy ($5,900) Like Devin McCuin, McCoy does have a questionable tag on DK. Unlike McCuin, McCoy is listed on the team’s depth chart and was not mentioned by the beat writer as being questionable for this matchup, so we’re expecting him to play. The former JUCO transfer has been targeted 27 times combined in his last three games played.
Best of the Rest – WR Chris Carpenter ($5,700) No Devin McCuin, No Willie McCoy, no problem. Carpenter has picked up the slack in recent weeks, with 29 targets in the last three games and consecutive 100-yard receiving performances. WR JJ Sparkman ($3,400) played over 57% of snaps in Week 10 vs. Memphis with the injuries to McCoy and McCuin, and would be my third WR option beyond the top two for UTSA.
Injury Notes – WR Devin McCuin ($6,900) Officially designated as questionable.
Wyoming vs. Colorado State
Point-Spread: CSU -10
O/U Total: 48
Implied Score: CSU 29 – Wyo 19
Weather: 44 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
Wyoming:
Top Play(s) – RB Harrison Waylee ($7,900) Waylee made his triumphant return to the lineup last week after offseason knee surgery, and immediately made his presence felt with 170 yards and a touchdown on 27 carries in the win over New Mexico. Colorado State is a MUCH better defense than Waylee faced last week, ranking 4th in the Mountain West in yards allowed on the ground and just 19.6 FPPG to opposing running backs. Still like a healthy and fresh Harrison Waylee as Wyoming’s top option.
Fade – WR Chris Durr ($4,000) The true freshman will have a chance to be a standout fantasy performer in time – remember he caught 12 passes for 121 yards in the team’s spring game back in April. But veteran receivers Jaylen Sargent and Tyler King were both cleared to play this week and we feel Wyoming will play the upperclassmen over a freshman. Durr played just 39% of the team’s snaps in Week 10.
Bargain Bin – TE John Michael Gyllenborg ($4,400) JMG is the team’s best pass-catcher, catching five passes for 47 yards and a score vs. New Mexico, and would have been more had Gyllenborg not been dealing with a collarbone injury. He’s cleared to play this week according to the coaching staff, though.
Pivot Play – WRs. Full disclosure – I don’t watch enough Wyoming football to know the exact WR rotations for the Cowboys. Based on Week 10, Justin Stevenson and Will Pelissier were on the field over 70% of the time, while Jaylen Sargent went for a career-high 186 yards and a touchdown on eight targets. What we also know is that, of the teams playing this week, Colorado State is allowing the 6th most fantasy points to wide receivers at over 50 FPPG.
Best of the Rest – QB Kaden Anderson ($7,000) Anderson provided a huge spark to the Wyoming offense last time out, throwing for 342 yards and three scores. Must be taken into account that he did face one of the worst defenses in the country in New Mexico. Colorado State is far better, but not necessarily against the pass. The Rams are 109th in pass D success rate and giving up over 25 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season. RB Jamari Ferrell ($4,200) Id lean towards fading Ferrell rather than playing the Wyoming RB2 for reasons stated above, but 20 carries for 89 yards and a score last week against New Mexico is nothing to scoff at. We just don’t feel the game script will be similar as a double-digit underdog, against a better run defense.
Injury Notes – RB Sam Scott is doubtful according to the Wyoming beat writer. Waylee should dominate the backfield volume share.
Colorado State:
Top Play(s) – RB Avery Morrow ($5,400) Morrow gets the nod here as Wyoming’s run defense is terrible, ranking 117th in EPA per run play defensively and 82nd in rush D success rate. Running backs are scoring 25% more than their seasonal average when facing this Cowboys defense. Morrow has been outstanding the last six weeks, but we’d be remiss not to mention that his volume is down in the prior two games with the return of RB Justin Marshall ($5,800) from injury. Morrow is still RB1, but not getting the volume he was seeing back in October.
Fade – QB Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi ($6,300) Would’ve never believed that a Jay Norvell and Matt Mumme led offense would be averaging just 20 pass attempts per game over the last three weeks. Whatever’s working though right, as CSU has rattled off three-straight wins by playing good defense and running the ball. We don’t expect that to change much as Colorado State doesn’t have the weapons on the outside after the Tory Horton injury.
Bargain Bin – TE Vince Brown (3,200) There is definitely no Dallin Holker this year for Colorado State. Brown is the cheapest realistic option here, ranked second on the team in routes run and fifth in targets (20).
Pivot Play – WRs. Because of the decline in passing volume for Colorado State, and being a double-digit favorite on Friday, we’d limit lineups to just one CSU receiver. Following the Tory Horton injury, the top three has consisted of Jamari Person, Caleb Goodie and former Baylor transfer Armani Winfield, all of whom are playing over 60% of the offensive snaps each week so very little rotation at the position. Five wide receivers have scored 19 or more fantasy points vs. Wyoming this season, so we’re not opposed to having any of the three in a lineup. Just limit it to one. Person leads the team in routes run, while Goodie is the most explosive of the bunch, averaging 19 yards per catch with a 14.5-yard aDOT and a team-high four touchdowns.
Best of the Rest – n/a. Morrow, Marshall or one Colorado State receiver (maximum) are the options on the CSU side.
Injury Notes – n/a
UCLA vs. Washington
Point-Spread: UW -4.5
O/U Total: 46.5
Implied Score: UW 25.5 – UCLA 21
Weather: 45 degrees / 52% rain / 2 mph winds
UCLA:
Top Play(s) – RB T.J. Harden ($5,500) I was unable to watch the game last week due to being forced into attending a country concert. When I woke up Saturday morning, my jaw hit the floor when I saw that Harden rushed for 120 yards on 25 attempts against a very good Iowa run defense. Can we ride the hot hand for another week? Washington’s run defense is the weakness of the unit, ranked 97th in EPA per run play, 87th in rush D success rate and giving up around 24 FPPG to opposing backfields. Kudos to UCLA and Harden for picking the pieces up this season after a rough first two months.
Fade – QB Ethan Garbers ($6,700) A 22-point projection at this salary would normally keep Garbers in the pool of options for us. But we have two high-end options from the North Texas – UNT matchup, and this Washington secondary is still one of the best in the country, ranked 7th in pass D success rate and allowing just 13.6 FPPG to quarterbacks.
Bargain Bin – WR Logan Loya ($4,300) Loya has rebounded from his early-season injury, now first on the team among wideouts in targets (30), with four receiving touchdowns in the last six games. Even with UCLA’s resurgent run game last week, Loya managed a season-high seven targets. Two of the three receivers to score the most fantasy points against Washington this season play in the slot, where Loya resides 71% of the time.
Pivot Play – RB Keegan Jones ($4,300) Jones’ versatility was on display last week with 38 yards rushing on seven attempts as the RB2 behind Harden, while also was targeted five times with four receptions. Recall back in the summer when Jones was previously committed to UConn as a wide receiver, but ultimately decided to renege that commitment.
Best of the Rest – WR Kwazi Gilmer ($4,500) The true freshman looks like a potential WR1 for the Bruins in 2025 with 141 of his 245 receiving yards this season coming in the last three games. Gilmer ran the most routes of any UCLA receiver last week vs. Iowa.
Injury Notes – WR Rico Flores ($4,800) Has not played since Week 5 vs. Oregon and may be preserving his redshirt at this point, having only participated in four games. TE Moliki Matavao ($3,600) would be the one to monitor for Friday as he was ruled out last week, and didn’t appear close to playing as he was on the sidelines in sweats during warmups. Matavao still leads the team in targets (37) this season.
Washington:
Top Play(s) – RB Jonah Coleman ($6,600) Here was a surprise that doesn’t apply to DFS at all – HC Jedd Fisch stated this week that Coleman was leaning towards coming back in 2025 for his senior year. But also could be noteworthy that we should still expect a full dosage of carries for Coleman on Friday and not trying to preserve his health just yet for the next level. UCLA run defense is 105th nationally in rush D success rate, but also held Iowa’s Kaleb Johnson to one of his lowest outputs of the season.
Fade – QB Will Rogers ($7,200) Would rather play Ethan Garbers over Rogers at a lower cost and nearly double his projection. In fairness to Rogers, I’d be very surprised to see Demond Williams on the field this week as it’s Washington’s last chance to gain bowl eligibility, having to travel to Oregon next week.
Bargain Bin – TE Keleki Latu ($4,100) Latu was shut out of the box score for the first time this season, targeted just once in the loss to Penn State. Could see a decrease in ownership for that reason, but Latu did play his normal allotment of snaps last Saturday, on the field 92% of the time.
Pivot Play – WR Denzel Boston ($7,700) Lowest output of the season for Boston last week vs. Penn State, targeted just three times with minimal yardage. The redshirt freshman still accounts for 60% of the team’s receiving touchdowns in 2024, and UCLA is a prime matchup as the Bruins are giving up around 42 fantasy points per game to opposing WR rooms. Five wide receivers have scored at least 19 fantasy points against UCLA this season, including last week where an Iowa receiver (yes you read that correctly) scored 20 fantasy points.
Best of the Rest – WR Giles Jackson ($6,000) Everything written above about Boston applies to Jackson as well, who is second on the team in targets (75), first in receptions (60) and second in routes run. WR Jeremiah Hunter ($4,100) is still in play, ranked fourth in targets (37) but he’s splitting snaps weekly now with Rashid Williams.
Injury Notes – n/a
Houston vs. Arizona
Point-Spread: Ariz -1.5
O/U Total: 45.5
Implied Score: Ariz 23.5 – Hou 22
Weather: 59 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Houston:
Top Play(s) – QB Zeon Chriss ($5,700) Running QBs have had their way with this Arizona defense where the top three highest scoring performances came from dual-threats like Devon Dampier, Avery Johnson and Dylan Rizk. For the season, Arizona is allowing 23.4 FPPG to quarterbacks, and the Wildcats don’t defend the run or the pass particularly well. Chriss is the best QB option outside of the two quarterbacks in the North Texas – UTSA matchup.
Fade – Everyone else on Houston. I’ll be the first to admit that I do not have a grasp whatsoever on the Houston backfield that has been a revolving door for much of the year. If choosing one, I’d side with RB Re’Shaun Sanford II ($4,100) who played 54% of the game against Kansas State despite having just six rushing yards. The redshirt freshman was trending upwards prior to that with 72 yards on 16 carries vs. Utah the week before.
Major risk rostering any of the Houston receivers as the Cougars are 114th nationally in pass play rate with Chriss completing just 20 passes combined over the last three weeks. Joseph Manjack, Stephon Johnson Jr. and Mekhi Mews have separated from the pack in terms of playing time, so if wanting to have a Houston wideout in a lineup, you’d select one from that trio.
Arizona:
Top Play(s) – WR Tet McMillan ($9,100) The only reliable fantasy option for Arizona all season, ranking 6th in the nation in targets (93) and tied for 6th in receptions (63). Five wide receivers have scored 17 or more fantasy points this season vs. Houston and we suspect the volume will be there for McMillan as Arizona is 11th nationally in pass play rate.
Fade – RB Quali Conley ($7,400) Conley has hit a wall this season that I don’t see him breaking through at any point, averaging fewer than four yards a carry in three of the last four games. Conley will likely start on Friday, but his RB1 status is in jeopardy after fumbling in each of the last two games. Houston is 20th in rush D success rate, so I’d completely fade the Arizona backfield.
Bargain Bin – WR Chris Hunter ($4,000) Arizona finally benched Montana Craig, instituting Hunter into the starting lineup two weeks ago vs. West Virginia. Minimal production that week, but 100+ yards on eight targets vs. UCF on Saturday. TE Sam Olson ($3,400) is also a bargain play as he’s found the end-zone in each of his last two games since taking over the starting TE1 job from Keyan Burnett.
Pivot Play – QB Noah Fifita ($7,800) Houston is going to slow this game down and try to force this matchup to be a battle of the trenches, which would be advantage Cougars. Don’t see it being an advantageous matchup for a non-runner like Fifita, playing a team that is allowing just 15.6 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks this season.
Best of the Rest – WR Jeremiah Patterson ($3,300) 43% of Patterson’s targets this season have come in the last three weeks as he’s seen a minor uptick in playing time. But he’s the fourth option in the passing game on a bad offense, so minimal interest.
Injury Notes – n/a
