Clemson vs. Louisville
- Point-Spread: Lou -2.5
- O/U Total: 51.5
- Implied Score: Lou 27 – Clem 24.5
- Weather: 59 degrees / 12% rain / 7 mph winds
Clemson:
Top Play(s) – QB Cade Klubnik ($8,500) Starting point for our builds as Klubnik is far and away the best option on the slate, but that has more to do with the other QBs more than the actual matchup. Louisville is No. 1 in the ACC in yards allowed through the air, and ranks 19th in pass D success rate and 17th in explosive pass plays. That said, we also just saw a true freshman carve up this Louisville secondary on the road last week for 350 yards and two scores. In the last four games, Klubnik has been incredibly efficient, completing 78% of his passes for 10 touchdowns to just one interception.
Fade – RB Adam Randall ($6,400) Can’t outright eliminate anyone on a two-game slate but I continue to be profitable by fading Randall in most spots. Detractors of that statement will argue usage, but that is trending down fast with double-digit rushing attempts for freshman RB Gideon Davidson ($4,500) in each of the last two weeks, and now there is no excuse of an injury. Randall was healthy against Florida State and still gave way to the freshman. Not playing any Clemson running back is a possibility as well, as the Cardinals are allowing just 15 combined fantasy points per game to opposing backfields.
Bargain Bin – TE Olsen Patt-Henry ($3,200) Have to take chances on a two-game slate to take down a GPP. Decent spot here for Patt-Henry who has been targeted three times in each of the last four games. Louisville has struggled to defend tight ends this season, allowing 11.5 FPPG to the position.
Best of the Rest – WRs. If we had more QB options to choose from, then WR Antonio Williams ($6,300) would easily be the top fantasy option for Clemson this week. Slot receivers have had their way with this Louisville secondary in ACC play. Both Malachi Toney and Cataurus Hicks had over 100 receiving yards in their matchups. And then last week with Cal’s Jacob de Jesus leading the country with 16 receptions on 23 (!!!) targets in the win last Saturday night. WR TJ Moore ($4,500) or WR Tristan Smith ($4,200) are playable, but not to the extent of Williams, as neither have had the impact that Bryant Wesco had prior to the injury.
Injury Notes – n/a
Louisville:
Top Play(s) – RB Keyjuan Brown ($5,600) I got “got” on Wednesday night, rushing to bet the under on Keyjuan Brown’s prop number after the injury report was released with Isaac Brown not listed. Then a tweet comes out 5 min later from a Louisville beat writer stating that the report was inaccurate and that Brown is indeed out on Friday. Such is life of a prop bettor. Keyjuan Brown has been excellent over the last three weeks filling in as the RB1 with 90+ rushing yards in each game during that span. Clemson is adequate at stopping the run, but not a dominant group to where you can’t play any RBs against them.
Bargain Bin – TE Nate Kurisky ($4,000) Having any Louisville pass-catcher beyond Chris Bell or Caullin Lacy is far from a requirement and probably preferred to not do so. Kurisky is third on the team in targets (24) and receptions (16). Clemson is giving up 10.5 FPPG to tight ends this season.
Pivot Play – RB Duke Watson ($5,100) The ultimate pivot play that could win a GPP, but also sink your lineup. Keyjuan Brown held a 14-6 advantage last week in rushing attempts and looked like the far better runner of the two, but it was Watson who scored the rushing TD. No clear advantage with red zone rushing attempts (1-1). Clemson is not a defense that you stack the Louisville backfield, so don’t take that strategy.
Best of the Rest – QB Miller Moss ($7,500) Would lean Moss as my second QB behind Klubnik, but not a slate where you need to have a second QB in the Superflex. Clemson has been strong against the pass as well, ranking 19th in success rate and allowing just 16.7 FPPG to quarterbacks this season. His usage on the ground is most surprising this season, now with a rushing TD in five of the last six games. Moss’ 2 red-zone carries vs. Cal last week were most on the team. We’ve seen increased production from slot WR Caullin Lacy ($5,200), while WR Chris Bell ($6,600) has been on the decline since the Miami game. This is absolutely a spot for Bell against this Clemson secondary that is 112th nationally in explosive pass plays allowed. Just look at the last three weeks. 100 yards to Duce Robinson. 100 yards to Cooper Barkate. 100 yards to Jordan Hudson. This is a Bell week.
Injury Notes – RB Isaac Brown (out)
Minnesota vs. Oregon
- Point-Spread: Oreg -25
- O/U Total: 44
- Implied Score: Oreg 34.5 – Minn 9.5
- Weather: 53 degrees / 29% rain / 3 mph winds
Minnesota:
Probably don’t need to play anyone on the Minnesota side in this one, barring a surprise that RB Darius Taylor ($5,300) is playing after 20 days off following his soft-tissue injury. When a team beat writer, who tends to be the most optimistic individual about the team he/she is covering aside from the fans, predicts the Gophers to only score six points on Friday, that tells you all you need to know.
We’re out on QB Drake Lindsey ($6,800) facing a Ducks defense that is giving up just 7.6 FPPG to quarterbacks this season. If Taylor were to be out, RB Fame Ijeboi ($4,600) would get the start after rushing for 100+ yards in Week 10 vs. Michigan State. He’s playable to an extent, with Oregon ranked just 8th in the B1G in yards allowed on the ground and 93rd in explosive run plays given up. That’s only if Darius Taylor is out. WR Le’Meke Brockington ($4,300) and WR Javon Tracy ($3,600) are the clear 1 / 2 at receiver for the Gophers, both playing over 70% of the offensive snaps and 38% of the target share. WR Jalen Smith ($3,500) leads the team with a 19.1 YPC average and 13.2 aDOT. Max one Minnesota receiver per lineup.
Injury Notes – RB Darius Taylor (questionable)
Oregon:
Top Play(s) – An Oregon RB. We would anticipate a run-heavy script for Oregon on Friday as 25-point favorites and potentially being down three starters in the passing game. Noah Whittington is preferred choice of the group, having rushed for 90+ yards in each of the last three games, but this is a full-on committee so we could go any direction here. Red-zone carries were split 1-1 between Whittington and Jordon Davison against Iowa. The game prior vs. Wisconsin? Davison had all five of the red-zone rushing attempts. And then you factor in Dierre Hill who might be the most talented of the group and had the lone rushing TD last week against Iowa. There’s several ways to attack this, no right or wrong answers. Multiple Oregon RBs is a possibility as well to get a unique GPP lineup build.
Bargain Bin – TE Jamari Johnson ($3,300) Over the last three weeks, Johnson leads the team in receiving yards. The Louisville transfer converted on all four of his targets last week, stepping in for the injured Kenyon Sadiq.
Pivot Play – WR Jeremiah McClellan ($3,900) We don’t expect Dakorien Moore to play on Friday. Gary Bryant Jr. left the Iowa contest in the 4th quarter to injury. If neither plays, McClellan likely slots into the WR1 role as he’s had the second most yards by an Oregon WR over the last three games, aside from Dakorien Moore. Minnesota is allowing just under 41 FPPG to opposing WR groups, which is by far the most on the slate by any team.
Best of the Rest – QB Dante Moore ($8,100) I lean Miller Moss slightly as the QB2 option on the slate. The salary savings with Moss, combined with the fact that Oregon is potentially down three of its top playmakers. Minnesota does nothing special defensively, ranked 9th in the B1G in yards allowed through the air and 70th in pass D success rate. Longshot plays if Dakorien Moore and Gary Bryant Jr. are out would be WR Malik Benson ($3,700) or freshman WR Cooper Perry ($3,000) who played a season-high 48% of snaps vs. Iowa last week.
Injury Notes – WR Dakorien Moore (questionable), TE Kenyon Sadiq (questionable), WR Gary Bryant Jr. (questionable)
Mike’s DK Core Four:
- QB Cade Klubnik, Clemson
- RB Keyjuan Brown, Louisville
- WR Antonio Williams, Clemson
- WR Chris Bell, Louisville
Mike’s FD Core Four:
- QB Cade Klubnik, Clemson
- RB Keyjuan Brown, Louisville
- WR Antonio Williams, Clemson
- WR Chris Bell, Louisville
